The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Polls Show How Conservatives can BEAT the Carney Liberals!

00:00:00.160 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back again to break down some more Canadian national polling numbers.

00:00:06.900 Today on the show we're going to be doing something slightly different.

00:00:10.340 We will be starting off with the normal national polling analysis,

00:00:14.060 but then I want to get into Abacus Data's very interesting issue-by-issue polling,

00:00:19.340 where they compare on different issues who Canadians trust more between the Liberals and the Conservatives,

00:00:24.780 and then I want to talk about what that tells us Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives should be doing,

00:00:30.000 if they eventually want to be leading the Liberals in the polls again.

00:00:34.080 But before we get into the numbers, I just want to remind you guys, if you like the show,

00:00:38.000 make sure to leave a like on the video, comment with what you think about all this,

00:00:42.240 as well as hit the join button if you want to help support the show and become a monthly

00:00:46.480 contributing member. And if you live in the federal riding of North Vancouver Capilano,

00:00:51.920 I have the campaign website of Stephen Curran, the conservative running in the summer's by-election,

00:00:57.920 pinned at the top of the comments. If you live in that riding, please get a lawn sign, please

00:01:02.660 volunteer. Whatever party works harder can actually win that riding and flip it from the Liberals

00:01:08.260 to the Conservatives. Anyways, without further ado, let's get into where the other parties

00:01:14.080 currently stand in the new abacus data numbers. So the Liberals are still leading, and although

00:01:21.020 they've gone up from last week, their actual margin over the Conservatives has not improved.

00:01:26.660 Right now, the liberals are just about a point above what they were at the last election, now at 45% rather than 43.5-44. I believe it was either 44 or 43.5, but they've effectively just gone up a little bit.

00:01:43.460 The Conservatives are now at 37%. That's not great, but it's far better than what they used to be in the abacus polling just a couple months ago. So we have them at 37 now.

00:01:56.900 the NDP have fallen since the last poll now just sitting at nine percent of the vote down from 11

00:02:05.460 and the Bloc Quebecois like in all havoc state of polls have basically just been floundering

00:02:10.720 at about six percent for the last few months which is basically no improvement since the last

00:02:17.740 election although since they poll only in Quebec oftentimes the decimal point difference between

00:02:25.340 like a 6.2 and a 6.5 might matter, but that's just not really picked up in the national photograph

00:02:32.300 that Abbott's data takes for us. So this is a 1% improvement for the Liberals here, going from 44%,

00:02:40.340 basically what they had last election, 45. The Conservatives have gone up one, the NDP have

00:02:46.460 fallen two, and as I mentioned before, the Bloc Québécois have just stalled out at six. Now,

00:02:52.740 if this was the actual election results in the national popular vote, the liberals would win

00:02:58.960 like 210 seats. Obviously, they're at 45% with an 8% margin over the conservatives. But do not fear,

00:03:07.060 this is still at least semi-good news for the conservatives. It was just a couple months ago

00:03:12.520 that the liberals in the abacus data national polling had a 13% lead. And that's a 13% lead

00:03:19.920 that didn't just come out of nowhere and then vanish by the time they did their next poll.

00:03:24.040 They were at like 10, 11, 13, 10, 13. And then after the recession hit, the Liberals fell from

00:03:32.900 13 down to 8. And this one has been maintaining the same lead. So we are in a different environment

00:03:40.560 than we were two months ago. Two months ago, Canadians were feeling more elbows up. And now

00:03:45.860 that bad liberal economics numbers are coming in, they're starting to fret a little bit. And that's

00:03:51.600 what we're going to be analyzing deeper in the issue-by-issue polling, because it tells you what

00:03:57.560 are the pressure points on Canadians right now, making them stick with the liberals or potentially

00:04:03.080 leave and go rejoin the conservatives, which again has happened in a significant way over the past

00:04:09.180 couple of months. So I'm going to raise the whiteboard, then we're going to get into some

00:04:13.080 issue polling. And then I want to talk a little bit about what I think the conservatives should

00:04:17.560 be doing if they want to continue narrowing this gap and eventually start leading. I'm sorry if I

00:04:23.040 start ranting about 20% tax cuts, but it's just one of those things I just want to keep banging

00:04:27.580 the drum on until they do it. But I'll clear the whiteboard and we'll be back in a second here.

00:04:33.020 Okay, we're back. And I'm not going to be highlighting every single significant issue

00:04:38.320 here because I can pull it up on screen and show you just how many there are. And many of them

00:04:43.000 are really not all that shocking and the margins on them are just absurd. So there's no point in

00:04:47.440 analyzing them. So like with things like immigration, the conservatives are widely

00:04:51.620 trusted more than the liberals, but the liberals have never made immigration like a big issue for

00:04:56.720 them. I have Trump here, but it's just to demonstrate the sort of force that drives a

00:05:01.260 lot of liberal votes these days. But it's probably what you already imagine it. I want to go through

00:05:06.480 these five issues and talk about what party's leading, by how much, and how basically what

00:05:13.320 opportunity there is for the conservatives to get an advantage or what they have to avoid

00:05:18.120 to try and offset a liberal advantage. So we'll start at COL, which is the cost of living.

00:05:25.740 Cost of living, in fact, is rated in terms of people's top three issues, because the way

00:05:30.340 Abacus' poll works is you pick three of your top issues, and then they show what percentage of

00:05:35.520 people picked each one of them as with their top three. Cost of living is easily the biggest one

00:05:41.360 at 66% of people saying it is their biggest issue. The liberals lead on this issue, they do,

00:05:48.760 but not by as much as you would think. So this is an LPC lead, but it's an LPC lead of just

00:05:57.960 five percent. It is a plus five liberal issue, so it's 40 to 35 percent with some margin of people

00:06:05.900 undecided or maybe saying another party. Then we get to the economy. This is also a liberal party

00:06:14.000 of Canada leading issue, but they lead on this one by plus two. Healthcare, I just use this one

00:06:22.740 is kind of like a general sort of issue to demonstrate yes more left-leaning issues the

00:06:29.020 liberals have a much bigger advantage on obviously liberals do lead on health care and it is a wide

00:06:36.200 margin but this is just to demonstrate the difference between a swing issue that can capture

00:06:41.300 voters from the liberals to the conservatives and one that's kind of one of those ones where

00:06:45.420 the conservatives just mitigate their losses people who are obsessed with health care issues

00:06:49.760 tend to want more government funding, and those people don't tend to vote conservative because

00:06:54.440 the Liberals and the Greens and the NDP, frankly, just chill hardest for healthcare. In fact,

00:06:59.400 actually, if you include the NDP, sometimes the NDP wins the healthcare issue because all the

00:07:05.140 workers are unionized pretty much, and they offer the highest increases in healthcare spending.

00:07:11.080 But when you just boil it down to the Liberals and the Conservatives, the Liberals are literally

00:07:16.300 leading on this issue by 16 points, I believe. Yes. So yeah, that is definitely a liberal issue.

00:07:24.760 Another one is Donald Trump. And I think this is very much the key to why the liberals are

00:07:30.720 currently still leading. People, there is still a significant portion of the liberal vote who may

00:07:36.760 have even voted NDP or conservative in the past. But as long as the evil, terrible, horrible orange

00:07:43.300 man is still around. They will keep voting liberal unless Mark Carney is exposed as being completely 0.97

00:07:48.600 incompetent, which I actually think is kind of the solution to this problem. Right now, the liberals

00:07:53.520 lead on Donald Trump 55 to 21. That, if you can do math like I can oftentimes barely do, is a 34%

00:08:05.200 lead. But then to give you an example of a conservative leading issue that they always

00:08:11.180 tend to do much better on than the Liberals. On crime and public safety, that is a CPC issue

00:08:17.780 where they currently lead 50% to 33%, that being a plus 17% lead, which is pretty good because it's

00:08:28.060 not like the Liberal Party is an explicitly, I guess, defund the police type of a party.

00:08:34.680 It's more so that they're just so incompetent that the Conservatives can run up a lead like this

00:08:39.520 On things like immigration, you have the Conservatives leading 58% to 24%, which is a 34% lead. So the Conservatives do have issues that are like the Trump issue for them, where they lead massively.

00:08:58.680 But really, what the next election is going to be about is cost of living, the economy, and maybe Trump.

00:09:05.840 Now, this is what holds up the Liberals right now. Currently, 31% of Canadians, so just we're not going to do this for all of them, but cost of living is currently rated by 66% of Canadians as one of their top three issues.

00:09:21.540 Trump is 31% of people's top three issues, one of their top three issues.

00:09:28.580 That's quite big.

00:09:29.820 What the conservatives need this number to be is what it was several months ago.

00:09:35.900 Several months ago, like last year when the conservatives were leading an abacus survey,

00:09:40.920 that number of people saying that Trump and his administration was one of their top three issues

00:09:46.580 was only at times 23% of the vote, which basically just demonstrates a bunch of very anti-Trump NDP

00:09:54.100 and liberal voters, but not enough to give Mark Carney and the liberals that nice polling pad

00:10:01.080 when 31, when one third of the entire country makes Trump one of the top three things that

00:10:07.140 they think of when going to vote. And in fact, I think of that 31%, the amount of people who are

00:10:13.440 like Laura Babacocks, who make that one of their top one or two issues, if they were to rank them,

00:10:19.700 those people are never going to leave the Liberal Party. But if you can squeeze that number down to

00:10:24.400 23, things change a lot. But look at that cost of living, and the Liberals are leading by five

00:10:30.960 points. Now, let's remember, nationally, the Liberals, let's just put it up here, nationally,

00:10:38.340 the Liberals are leading by plus 8%. So on cost of living, they are down 3% compared to the

00:10:47.960 national lead they have on the Conservatives. While yes, you could say, well, that's not that

00:10:55.640 good because it's a head-to-head vote between Liberals and Conservatives. This is a head-to-head

00:11:00.120 vote with Liberals and Conservatives without probably a lot of NDP and Green and Block

00:11:05.900 begrudgingly saying between the two, they probably always trust the liberals more because they're the

00:11:10.520 more left-leaning party. Even when all those other left-wing parties are probably basically just

00:11:15.960 choosing the liberals despite the conservatives, and I guess EPC would be picking the conservatives.

00:11:20.520 There are some working-class NDP guys who will pick conservatives on this stuff, but

00:11:24.780 this is not that good of a lead, all considering, for the liberal party, especially on the economy,

00:11:30.360 only plus two. Now, the economy back when the conservatives were leading would actually still

00:11:36.800 sometimes lead liberal because people think of the liberals as like a stable growth party.

00:11:42.740 Maybe you're never going to have big economic booms, but they'll keep it at, you know, that

00:11:47.620 one and a half, two percent growth every year. They're not going to mess with the formula.

00:11:51.760 And people sometimes get scared the conservatives are going to mess with the formula too much.

00:11:55.660 Now, conservatives should not be too scared of doing that. It's very easy to boom the

00:12:00.140 Canadian economy, just cut taxes 20%. My normal suggestion, 20% across the board and a point off

00:12:06.900 the GST, there you go. But right now, the Liberals are vulnerable. With an 8% lead,

00:12:13.140 they're only leading 5% and 2% on the big economic issues. The economy is the second

00:12:19.780 biggest issue for people in Canada, sitting at 39% in terms of people choosing it as their top

00:12:26.540 issue. I guess I lied. I'm going to fill in some more of these. So 39% on the economy.

00:12:34.540 Now, the problem for the Conservatives is that this slight Liberal lead is only slight because 0.91

00:12:41.680 the economy sucks right now. The Liberals are generally popular, but the economy sucks. So on 0.99

00:12:47.020 these issues, they're a little bit degraded when they go head to head with the Conservatives. 1.00

00:12:51.260 The Conservatives, and this is what Polly needs to do, 1.00

00:12:53.960 needs to offer just a starkly different vision for the economy 0.99

00:12:58.520 than what Carney is doing.

00:13:00.680 Now, I know some people say, well, they are doing that.

00:13:03.120 They're more pro-free market.

00:13:04.260 Sure, in an abstract sense, the Conservatives are the free market party

00:13:07.960 and the Liberals are like the government-managed growth party.

00:13:11.680 They're not quite socialist the way the Bloc Québécois and the NDP are,

00:13:15.880 but they're a little bit more of that mixed economy,

00:13:18.700 government knows best kind of side of things. But in terms of what the average voter notices,

00:13:24.880 they see Carney coming up with all these schemes to try and subsidize certain parts of the economy

00:13:30.520 and spur growth through increasing demand by just throwing money at different industries and

00:13:36.240 different voters. That's how he sees economics. Now, is Polyev doing that? No. But thematically,

00:13:43.360 what he's running on of saying, I'm going to get rid of the industrial carbon tax.

00:13:47.240 I'd suspend taxes on GST, on used cars.

00:13:51.080 I would get rid of the gas tax until the end of the year.

00:13:55.340 Although it's a pro-supply side type solution where we're going to get the government out of the way

00:14:01.580 and we're going to let the free market sort itself out,

00:14:04.260 we're going to grow the supply of products and services by not taxing the economy

00:14:10.540 and taking it into the government's coffers.

00:14:12.900 The problem is it's still too piecemeal and boutique.

00:14:16.740 in terms of boutique tax credits boutique tax cuts where we're not just going to cut taxes

00:14:23.140 we're going to get rid of that tax and we're going to say we're not going to charge you capital gains

00:14:28.340 if you reinvest in canada it's like better than nothing but it's complicated it's kind of feels

00:14:36.500 like government tinkering around trying to spur the economy forward what you need to do to get

00:14:42.020 the Liberals from plus five and plus two to Conservatives leading by plus five to plus 10,

00:14:47.540 is saying 20% across the board tax cut. We're going to eliminate a bunch of regulations.

00:14:53.540 And now the Conservatives do well on the regulation side. They always go after the anti-development,

00:14:58.580 anti-energy regulations. Great. But even just set a target. We're going to dump three regulations

00:15:03.860 for every new one reintroduced. We want the overall amount of regulations in Canada to drop

00:15:09.860 30% in a first term of a conservative government, or maybe make it lower. 20% there. Copy 1BC. We

00:15:16.460 have a 25% plan. The conservatives can have a 20% plan, 20% tax cut, 20% regulation cut. We're going

00:15:22.680 to cut 20% of administrative jobs. We're going to eliminate consultants and all that stuff. Great.

00:15:28.100 And that is now an easy thing for people to understand. So when they're thinking about

00:15:32.660 grocery prices being high, they can then think on the flip side, how much cheaper would it be if

00:15:37.920 probably have took a point off the gst and cut corporate taxes and my personal income taxes

00:15:42.880 that's what you need to do don't have too many complicated fussy little ways of trying to save

00:15:49.820 people money here's another stat i highlighted it in my last video and i don't need to pause

00:15:55.140 to clear the board i can just do a general uh erasing live action release erasing to show

00:16:02.600 these stats on the board oh my goodness guys i'm using the bad markers that don't like to erase

00:16:07.260 very well. My life is hell. Okay. Because right now, despite all of the media propaganda,

00:16:16.860 the liberals are actually not doing very well on the recession issue. They can keep saying

00:16:22.600 technical recession. The media can keep bringing on experts from random banks to say, actually,

00:16:28.100 the economy is looking pretty sunny around the corner that we haven't seen yet. I don't know

00:16:32.640 how we can predict that it's going to be better next quarter, considering we predicted it was

00:16:36.140 going to be good these last two quarters, and then it wasn't. But all of that messaging is not

00:16:41.540 working. If you ask people the recession question, are we in a recession, are we not? A lot of

00:16:48.780 Canadians are not buying what the liberals are selling on this. They don't think that we're just

00:16:54.680 going through a reshuffling of the economy. They've been feeling the economy in recession

00:17:00.300 for a while now. The fact that immigration went down and it lowered our GDP for a few quarters

00:17:07.460 is not the reason. That's not the problem. That was the symptom. That was like the Febreze

00:17:13.760 covering up the awful stench. We've been in a recession for a while and immigrants going home 1.00

00:17:18.780 and our GDP falling because of it demonstrates the economy is never healthy. So this is, yes, 1.00

00:17:24.680 we're in a recession, no we're not in a recession, and then we have I don't know. This is a great

00:17:32.620 issue for the Conservatives to keep hammering on, and despite loser hacks like Fred DeLore saying

00:17:38.260 don't cheer on the economy being bad, don't look like you're celebrating Canada's economy being in

00:17:43.980 a recession, one the Conservatives aren't doing that, and two they should keep hammering on this

00:17:49.500 issue because look at this. How many Canadians think we are currently not in a recession? 23%.

00:17:59.220 And then we have, I'll use, what do I use for this? I'll use blue for this. We have 20% of

00:18:07.820 Canadians not knowing if we are in a recession or not, which generally other people tend to swing

00:18:13.820 with what the majority think. And then on terms of, yes, we are in a recession, 57% of Canadians

00:18:22.640 say, yes, we are in a recession. Now, if we took out the undecideds there, it would probably be

00:18:28.840 above 65%, 70%. Keep hitting on this thing. It's a really, really good issue for the Conservatives

00:18:38.200 to keep talking about the recession, but you can't just talk about the recession because

00:18:42.400 we have seen the type of numbers that we get by just harping on the recession. Liberals lead a

00:18:48.040 little bit on the economy, and they lead a little bit on cost of living, because the liberals will

00:18:52.380 always find a way of just handing out money. You have to offer something so compelling, it blows

00:18:57.340 all that out of the water, which is a large tax cut. It's actually pure poly of potentially saying,

00:19:03.120 let's stop being a welfare economy, let's stop sustaining people in poverty, and let's get people,

00:19:09.800 wealthy again, rather than simply keeping them a little bit above the poverty line so we can

00:19:16.500 ignore them. That is how he should frame Mark Carney. He is the rich father or the rich man

00:19:24.240 sitting at the mahogany table and Canadians run up to him wanting help. We have no jobs. Can you

00:19:30.860 cut taxes? Can you do something for us? You said you were going to fix the economy. He's like,

00:19:35.520 here's $300. Is that enough to buy milk these days? Get away from me.

00:19:39.700 That is how the conservatives need to be framing it. He is a wealthy man

00:19:43.340 who breaks off a check for the bottom 33% of earners and says, oh, what is this?

00:19:47.480 How much groceries cost these days? Get out of my face. That is

00:19:51.540 magically, theatrically, the operatic tone

00:19:55.520 the conservatives need is that he is this rich man basically keeping you a little

00:19:59.640 bit above the poverty line so he can tell you to stop whining

00:20:02.780 and actually keeping from you real wealth, real stability.

00:20:09.600 And the Conservatives are here to rip down the whole thing.

00:20:13.300 Go after the condo bailouts. 0.73

00:20:15.820 Go after the Alto train.

00:20:17.880 They are stealing money from you to give to connected liberal developers

00:20:22.260 and people in the Alto high-speed train Crown Corporation.

00:20:26.700 All their developer friends who are going to work on that,

00:20:29.280 Francois-Philippe Champagne, our finance minister's wife,

00:20:31.920 or I guess not his wife, his weird in-law partner, I don't know. That is what the Conservatives

00:20:37.380 should hit. And then they say, I'm going to give you a 20% tax cut once we get rid of all the waste,

00:20:42.600 fraud, and abuse, which we can do in a second by just canceling a bunch of these stupid projects, 0.99

00:20:46.800 consulting contracts, you name it. Anyways, so I think you guys get my point here. 0.99

00:20:54.220 Affordability, really big issue for the Conservatives. Now, there's always social

00:20:57.620 issues that also work well. Immigration. Keep hammering on lowering immigration more. Crime.

00:21:03.520 Run on the death penalty. It's very popular. You might not believe it. Running on the death penalty

00:21:09.820 for serial murder so that we don't have all these serial murders going into low security prison.

00:21:15.340 Great issue. Run on a one strike policy for fentanyl dealing. You're dealing fentanyl. You

00:21:21.160 are basically an attempted murderer. You're going away for seven years. Run on something like that 0.98

00:21:26.640 on social issues. Run on some mildly pro-life policies. Because right now, the liberal policies

00:21:32.620 on maid and abortion are so ghoulish and dark, conservatives have a lot to win on this issue

00:21:38.800 because the liberals are so overextended. The dumb red Tory talking point, don't run on life 0.99

00:21:44.120 issues. You're going to be called anti-woman. Well, women, a lot of liberal women already think 1.00

00:21:48.940 the conservative party is anti-women. So why not run on a pro-life issue and get all the seniors 1.00

00:21:54.060 who are pro-life in the Maritimes who vote liberal because of their pensions, maybe actually

00:21:58.240 motivate them to vote conservative because they don't vote conservative because the conservatives

00:22:01.560 are pro-life. I'm not even kidding. That's what happens. Pro-life voters who are in the Maritimes

00:22:07.220 and Eastern and Southwest Ontario, they see no party running pro-life, so they vote for their

00:22:13.800 pension because that's the only other thing they really care about, and so they vote liberal

00:22:17.500 because they're the most pro-pension party that they can see. But anyways, with all that being

00:22:22.800 said i think you guys can get my point here make sure you like share subscribe leave a comment on

00:22:27.680 what you think about and if you live in north vancouver capilano hit the stephen curran url

00:22:35.120 at the pinned at the top the comments get a lawn sign if you live in the riding i hope i want

00:22:40.320 stephen curran to have over a thousand lawn signs in this by-election get some excitement in the

00:22:45.200 riding throw the bums out the liberals can actually lose this riding because although

00:22:49.920 jonathan wilkinson made it a safe liberal riding oftentimes a certain person who's personally

00:22:56.000 popular in area can make their riding safe for themselves as soon as they're out the door the

00:23:00.880 riding can flip back to the conservatives which what which is what it was before jonathan wilkinson

00:23:06.240 had taken the riding especially with the mdp running hard on the climate issue in the aftermath

00:23:11.280 of wilkinson and gilba guibo leaving partly because they didn't like that carney wasn't enough of a

00:23:17.200 zealot on the climate that opens up the door for the liberals to lose a bunch of their left flank

00:23:22.180 vote and the conservatives are running hard on property rights as well as cutting taxes as well

00:23:28.220 as building a pipeline as well as so on and so forth they can dig they can raise their 36 percent

00:23:34.780 they got last time to maybe 42 percent and be in that ball game anyways with all that being said

00:23:40.780 finally i always like i always say like finally guys well with all that being said and i'll say

00:23:46.020 it like three times before i wrap up the video but truly this is the end of video see you guys next

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 24, 2026

Polls Show How Conservatives can BEAT the Carney Liberals!

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