The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 24, 2026


Polls Show How Conservatives can BEAT the Carney Liberals!


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23 minutes

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4,103

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200

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6

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8

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Hate speech

2

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, Wyatt Claypool breaks down the latest national polling numbers from Abacus Data and the issue-by-issue polling from the CBC/Canadapoint poll. He then talks about what the Conservatives should be doing if they want to catch up to the Liberals in the polls again.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
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00:00:00.160 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back again to break down some more Canadian national polling numbers.
00:00:06.900 Today on the show we're going to be doing something slightly different.
00:00:10.340 We will be starting off with the normal national polling analysis,
00:00:14.060 but then I want to get into Abacus Data's very interesting issue-by-issue polling,
00:00:19.340 where they compare on different issues who Canadians trust more between the Liberals and the Conservatives,
00:00:24.780 and then I want to talk about what that tells us Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives should be doing,
00:00:30.000 if they eventually want to be leading the Liberals in the polls again.
00:00:34.080 But before we get into the numbers, I just want to remind you guys, if you like the show,
00:00:38.000 make sure to leave a like on the video, comment with what you think about all this,
00:00:42.240 as well as hit the join button if you want to help support the show and become a monthly
00:00:46.480 contributing member. And if you live in the federal riding of North Vancouver Capilano,
00:00:51.920 I have the campaign website of Stephen Curran, the conservative running in the summer's by-election,
00:00:57.920 pinned at the top of the comments. If you live in that riding, please get a lawn sign, please
00:01:02.660 volunteer. Whatever party works harder can actually win that riding and flip it from the Liberals
00:01:08.260 to the Conservatives. Anyways, without further ado, let's get into where the other parties
00:01:14.080 currently stand in the new abacus data numbers. So the Liberals are still leading, and although
00:01:21.020 they've gone up from last week, their actual margin over the Conservatives has not improved.
00:01:26.660 Right now, the liberals are just about a point above what they were at the last election, now at 45% rather than 43.5-44. I believe it was either 44 or 43.5, but they've effectively just gone up a little bit.
00:01:43.460 The Conservatives are now at 37%. That's not great, but it's far better than what they used to be in the abacus polling just a couple months ago. So we have them at 37 now.
00:01:56.900 the NDP have fallen since the last poll now just sitting at nine percent of the vote down from 11
00:02:05.460 and the Bloc Quebecois like in all havoc state of polls have basically just been floundering
00:02:10.720 at about six percent for the last few months which is basically no improvement since the last
00:02:17.740 election although since they poll only in Quebec oftentimes the decimal point difference between
00:02:25.340 like a 6.2 and a 6.5 might matter, but that's just not really picked up in the national photograph
00:02:32.300 that Abbott's data takes for us. So this is a 1% improvement for the Liberals here, going from 44%,
00:02:40.340 basically what they had last election, 45. The Conservatives have gone up one, the NDP have
00:02:46.460 fallen two, and as I mentioned before, the Bloc Québécois have just stalled out at six. Now,
00:02:52.740 if this was the actual election results in the national popular vote, the liberals would win
00:02:58.960 like 210 seats. Obviously, they're at 45% with an 8% margin over the conservatives. But do not fear,
00:03:07.060 this is still at least semi-good news for the conservatives. It was just a couple months ago
00:03:12.520 that the liberals in the abacus data national polling had a 13% lead. And that's a 13% lead
00:03:19.920 that didn't just come out of nowhere and then vanish by the time they did their next poll.
00:03:24.040 They were at like 10, 11, 13, 10, 13. And then after the recession hit, the Liberals fell from
00:03:32.900 13 down to 8. And this one has been maintaining the same lead. So we are in a different environment
00:03:40.560 than we were two months ago. Two months ago, Canadians were feeling more elbows up. And now
00:03:45.860 that bad liberal economics numbers are coming in, they're starting to fret a little bit. And that's
00:03:51.600 what we're going to be analyzing deeper in the issue-by-issue polling, because it tells you what
00:03:57.560 are the pressure points on Canadians right now, making them stick with the liberals or potentially
00:04:03.080 leave and go rejoin the conservatives, which again has happened in a significant way over the past
00:04:09.180 couple of months. So I'm going to raise the whiteboard, then we're going to get into some
00:04:13.080 issue polling. And then I want to talk a little bit about what I think the conservatives should
00:04:17.560 be doing if they want to continue narrowing this gap and eventually start leading. I'm sorry if I
00:04:23.040 start ranting about 20% tax cuts, but it's just one of those things I just want to keep banging
00:04:27.580 the drum on until they do it. But I'll clear the whiteboard and we'll be back in a second here.
00:04:33.020 Okay, we're back. And I'm not going to be highlighting every single significant issue
00:04:38.320 here because I can pull it up on screen and show you just how many there are. And many of them
00:04:43.000 are really not all that shocking and the margins on them are just absurd. So there's no point in
00:04:47.440 analyzing them. So like with things like immigration, the conservatives are widely
00:04:51.620 trusted more than the liberals, but the liberals have never made immigration like a big issue for
00:04:56.720 them. I have Trump here, but it's just to demonstrate the sort of force that drives a
00:05:01.260 lot of liberal votes these days. But it's probably what you already imagine it. I want to go through
00:05:06.480 these five issues and talk about what party's leading, by how much, and how basically what
00:05:13.320 opportunity there is for the conservatives to get an advantage or what they have to avoid
00:05:18.120 to try and offset a liberal advantage. So we'll start at COL, which is the cost of living.
00:05:25.740 Cost of living, in fact, is rated in terms of people's top three issues, because the way
00:05:30.340 Abacus' poll works is you pick three of your top issues, and then they show what percentage of
00:05:35.520 people picked each one of them as with their top three. Cost of living is easily the biggest one
00:05:41.360 at 66% of people saying it is their biggest issue. The liberals lead on this issue, they do,
00:05:48.760 but not by as much as you would think. So this is an LPC lead, but it's an LPC lead of just
00:05:57.960 five percent. It is a plus five liberal issue, so it's 40 to 35 percent with some margin of people
00:06:05.900 undecided or maybe saying another party. Then we get to the economy. This is also a liberal party
00:06:14.000 of Canada leading issue, but they lead on this one by plus two. Healthcare, I just use this one
00:06:22.740 is kind of like a general sort of issue to demonstrate yes more left-leaning issues the
00:06:29.020 liberals have a much bigger advantage on obviously liberals do lead on health care and it is a wide
00:06:36.200 margin but this is just to demonstrate the difference between a swing issue that can capture
00:06:41.300 voters from the liberals to the conservatives and one that's kind of one of those ones where
00:06:45.420 the conservatives just mitigate their losses people who are obsessed with health care issues
00:06:49.760 tend to want more government funding, and those people don't tend to vote conservative because
00:06:54.440 the Liberals and the Greens and the NDP, frankly, just chill hardest for healthcare. In fact,
00:06:59.400 actually, if you include the NDP, sometimes the NDP wins the healthcare issue because all the
00:07:05.140 workers are unionized pretty much, and they offer the highest increases in healthcare spending.
00:07:11.080 But when you just boil it down to the Liberals and the Conservatives, the Liberals are literally
00:07:16.300 leading on this issue by 16 points, I believe. Yes. So yeah, that is definitely a liberal issue.
00:07:24.760 Another one is Donald Trump. And I think this is very much the key to why the liberals are
00:07:30.720 currently still leading. People, there is still a significant portion of the liberal vote who may
00:07:36.760 have even voted NDP or conservative in the past. But as long as the evil, terrible, horrible orange
00:07:43.300 man is still around. They will keep voting liberal unless Mark Carney is exposed as being completely 0.97
00:07:48.600 incompetent, which I actually think is kind of the solution to this problem. Right now, the liberals
00:07:53.520 lead on Donald Trump 55 to 21. That, if you can do math like I can oftentimes barely do, is a 34%
00:08:05.200 lead. But then to give you an example of a conservative leading issue that they always
00:08:11.180 tend to do much better on than the Liberals. On crime and public safety, that is a CPC issue
00:08:17.780 where they currently lead 50% to 33%, that being a plus 17% lead, which is pretty good because it's
00:08:28.060 not like the Liberal Party is an explicitly, I guess, defund the police type of a party.
00:08:34.680 It's more so that they're just so incompetent that the Conservatives can run up a lead like this
00:08:39.520 On things like immigration, you have the Conservatives leading 58% to 24%, which is a 34% lead. So the Conservatives do have issues that are like the Trump issue for them, where they lead massively.
00:08:58.680 But really, what the next election is going to be about is cost of living, the economy, and maybe Trump.
00:09:05.840 Now, this is what holds up the Liberals right now. Currently, 31% of Canadians, so just we're not going to do this for all of them, but cost of living is currently rated by 66% of Canadians as one of their top three issues.
00:09:21.540 Trump is 31% of people's top three issues, one of their top three issues.
00:09:28.580 That's quite big.
00:09:29.820 What the conservatives need this number to be is what it was several months ago.
00:09:35.900 Several months ago, like last year when the conservatives were leading an abacus survey,
00:09:40.920 that number of people saying that Trump and his administration was one of their top three issues
00:09:46.580 was only at times 23% of the vote, which basically just demonstrates a bunch of very anti-Trump NDP
00:09:54.100 and liberal voters, but not enough to give Mark Carney and the liberals that nice polling pad
00:10:01.080 when 31, when one third of the entire country makes Trump one of the top three things that
00:10:07.140 they think of when going to vote. And in fact, I think of that 31%, the amount of people who are
00:10:13.440 like Laura Babacocks, who make that one of their top one or two issues, if they were to rank them,
00:10:19.700 those people are never going to leave the Liberal Party. But if you can squeeze that number down to
00:10:24.400 23, things change a lot. But look at that cost of living, and the Liberals are leading by five
00:10:30.960 points. Now, let's remember, nationally, the Liberals, let's just put it up here, nationally,
00:10:38.340 the Liberals are leading by plus 8%. So on cost of living, they are down 3% compared to the
00:10:47.960 national lead they have on the Conservatives. While yes, you could say, well, that's not that
00:10:55.640 good because it's a head-to-head vote between Liberals and Conservatives. This is a head-to-head
00:11:00.120 vote with Liberals and Conservatives without probably a lot of NDP and Green and Block
00:11:05.900 begrudgingly saying between the two, they probably always trust the liberals more because they're the
00:11:10.520 more left-leaning party. Even when all those other left-wing parties are probably basically just
00:11:15.960 choosing the liberals despite the conservatives, and I guess EPC would be picking the conservatives.
00:11:20.520 There are some working-class NDP guys who will pick conservatives on this stuff, but
00:11:24.780 this is not that good of a lead, all considering, for the liberal party, especially on the economy,
00:11:30.360 only plus two. Now, the economy back when the conservatives were leading would actually still
00:11:36.800 sometimes lead liberal because people think of the liberals as like a stable growth party.
00:11:42.740 Maybe you're never going to have big economic booms, but they'll keep it at, you know, that
00:11:47.620 one and a half, two percent growth every year. They're not going to mess with the formula.
00:11:51.760 And people sometimes get scared the conservatives are going to mess with the formula too much.
00:11:55.660 Now, conservatives should not be too scared of doing that. It's very easy to boom the
00:12:00.140 Canadian economy, just cut taxes 20%. My normal suggestion, 20% across the board and a point off
00:12:06.900 the GST, there you go. But right now, the Liberals are vulnerable. With an 8% lead,
00:12:13.140 they're only leading 5% and 2% on the big economic issues. The economy is the second
00:12:19.780 biggest issue for people in Canada, sitting at 39% in terms of people choosing it as their top
00:12:26.540 issue. I guess I lied. I'm going to fill in some more of these. So 39% on the economy.
00:12:34.540 Now, the problem for the Conservatives is that this slight Liberal lead is only slight because 0.91
00:12:41.680 the economy sucks right now. The Liberals are generally popular, but the economy sucks. So on 0.99
00:12:47.020 these issues, they're a little bit degraded when they go head to head with the Conservatives. 1.00
00:12:51.260 The Conservatives, and this is what Polly needs to do, 1.00
00:12:53.960 needs to offer just a starkly different vision for the economy 0.99
00:12:58.520 than what Carney is doing.
00:13:00.680 Now, I know some people say, well, they are doing that.
00:13:03.120 They're more pro-free market.
00:13:04.260 Sure, in an abstract sense, the Conservatives are the free market party
00:13:07.960 and the Liberals are like the government-managed growth party.
00:13:11.680 They're not quite socialist the way the Bloc Québécois and the NDP are,
00:13:15.880 but they're a little bit more of that mixed economy,
00:13:18.700 government knows best kind of side of things. But in terms of what the average voter notices,
00:13:24.880 they see Carney coming up with all these schemes to try and subsidize certain parts of the economy
00:13:30.520 and spur growth through increasing demand by just throwing money at different industries and
00:13:36.240 different voters. That's how he sees economics. Now, is Polyev doing that? No. But thematically,
00:13:43.360 what he's running on of saying, I'm going to get rid of the industrial carbon tax.
00:13:47.240 I'd suspend taxes on GST, on used cars.
00:13:51.080 I would get rid of the gas tax until the end of the year.
00:13:55.340 Although it's a pro-supply side type solution where we're going to get the government out of the way
00:14:01.580 and we're going to let the free market sort itself out,
00:14:04.260 we're going to grow the supply of products and services by not taxing the economy
00:14:10.540 and taking it into the government's coffers.
00:14:12.900 The problem is it's still too piecemeal and boutique.
00:14:16.740 in terms of boutique tax credits boutique tax cuts where we're not just going to cut taxes
00:14:23.140 we're going to get rid of that tax and we're going to say we're not going to charge you capital gains
00:14:28.340 if you reinvest in canada it's like better than nothing but it's complicated it's kind of feels
00:14:36.500 like government tinkering around trying to spur the economy forward what you need to do to get
00:14:42.020 the Liberals from plus five and plus two to Conservatives leading by plus five to plus 10,
00:14:47.540 is saying 20% across the board tax cut. We're going to eliminate a bunch of regulations.
00:14:53.540 And now the Conservatives do well on the regulation side. They always go after the anti-development,
00:14:58.580 anti-energy regulations. Great. But even just set a target. We're going to dump three regulations
00:15:03.860 for every new one reintroduced. We want the overall amount of regulations in Canada to drop
00:15:09.860 30% in a first term of a conservative government, or maybe make it lower. 20% there. Copy 1BC. We
00:15:16.460 have a 25% plan. The conservatives can have a 20% plan, 20% tax cut, 20% regulation cut. We're going
00:15:22.680 to cut 20% of administrative jobs. We're going to eliminate consultants and all that stuff. Great.
00:15:28.100 And that is now an easy thing for people to understand. So when they're thinking about
00:15:32.660 grocery prices being high, they can then think on the flip side, how much cheaper would it be if
00:15:37.920 probably have took a point off the gst and cut corporate taxes and my personal income taxes
00:15:42.880 that's what you need to do don't have too many complicated fussy little ways of trying to save
00:15:49.820 people money here's another stat i highlighted it in my last video and i don't need to pause
00:15:55.140 to clear the board i can just do a general uh erasing live action release erasing to show
00:16:02.600 these stats on the board oh my goodness guys i'm using the bad markers that don't like to erase
00:16:07.260 very well. My life is hell. Okay. Because right now, despite all of the media propaganda,
00:16:16.860 the liberals are actually not doing very well on the recession issue. They can keep saying
00:16:22.600 technical recession. The media can keep bringing on experts from random banks to say, actually,
00:16:28.100 the economy is looking pretty sunny around the corner that we haven't seen yet. I don't know
00:16:32.640 how we can predict that it's going to be better next quarter, considering we predicted it was
00:16:36.140 going to be good these last two quarters, and then it wasn't. But all of that messaging is not
00:16:41.540 working. If you ask people the recession question, are we in a recession, are we not? A lot of
00:16:48.780 Canadians are not buying what the liberals are selling on this. They don't think that we're just
00:16:54.680 going through a reshuffling of the economy. They've been feeling the economy in recession
00:17:00.300 for a while now. The fact that immigration went down and it lowered our GDP for a few quarters
00:17:07.460 is not the reason. That's not the problem. That was the symptom. That was like the Febreze
00:17:13.760 covering up the awful stench. We've been in a recession for a while and immigrants going home 1.00
00:17:18.780 and our GDP falling because of it demonstrates the economy is never healthy. So this is, yes, 1.00
00:17:24.680 we're in a recession, no we're not in a recession, and then we have I don't know. This is a great
00:17:32.620 issue for the Conservatives to keep hammering on, and despite loser hacks like Fred DeLore saying
00:17:38.260 don't cheer on the economy being bad, don't look like you're celebrating Canada's economy being in
00:17:43.980 a recession, one the Conservatives aren't doing that, and two they should keep hammering on this
00:17:49.500 issue because look at this. How many Canadians think we are currently not in a recession? 23%.
00:17:59.220 And then we have, I'll use, what do I use for this? I'll use blue for this. We have 20% of
00:18:07.820 Canadians not knowing if we are in a recession or not, which generally other people tend to swing
00:18:13.820 with what the majority think. And then on terms of, yes, we are in a recession, 57% of Canadians
00:18:22.640 say, yes, we are in a recession. Now, if we took out the undecideds there, it would probably be
00:18:28.840 above 65%, 70%. Keep hitting on this thing. It's a really, really good issue for the Conservatives
00:18:38.200 to keep talking about the recession, but you can't just talk about the recession because
00:18:42.400 we have seen the type of numbers that we get by just harping on the recession. Liberals lead a
00:18:48.040 little bit on the economy, and they lead a little bit on cost of living, because the liberals will
00:18:52.380 always find a way of just handing out money. You have to offer something so compelling, it blows
00:18:57.340 all that out of the water, which is a large tax cut. It's actually pure poly of potentially saying,
00:19:03.120 let's stop being a welfare economy, let's stop sustaining people in poverty, and let's get people,
00:19:09.800 wealthy again, rather than simply keeping them a little bit above the poverty line so we can
00:19:16.500 ignore them. That is how he should frame Mark Carney. He is the rich father or the rich man
00:19:24.240 sitting at the mahogany table and Canadians run up to him wanting help. We have no jobs. Can you
00:19:30.860 cut taxes? Can you do something for us? You said you were going to fix the economy. He's like,
00:19:35.520 here's $300. Is that enough to buy milk these days? Get away from me.
00:19:39.700 That is how the conservatives need to be framing it. He is a wealthy man
00:19:43.340 who breaks off a check for the bottom 33% of earners and says, oh, what is this?
00:19:47.480 How much groceries cost these days? Get out of my face. That is
00:19:51.540 magically, theatrically, the operatic tone
00:19:55.520 the conservatives need is that he is this rich man basically keeping you a little
00:19:59.640 bit above the poverty line so he can tell you to stop whining
00:20:02.780 and actually keeping from you real wealth, real stability.
00:20:09.600 And the Conservatives are here to rip down the whole thing.
00:20:13.300 Go after the condo bailouts. 0.73
00:20:15.820 Go after the Alto train.
00:20:17.880 They are stealing money from you to give to connected liberal developers
00:20:22.260 and people in the Alto high-speed train Crown Corporation.
00:20:26.700 All their developer friends who are going to work on that,
00:20:29.280 Francois-Philippe Champagne, our finance minister's wife,
00:20:31.920 or I guess not his wife, his weird in-law partner, I don't know. That is what the Conservatives
00:20:37.380 should hit. And then they say, I'm going to give you a 20% tax cut once we get rid of all the waste,
00:20:42.600 fraud, and abuse, which we can do in a second by just canceling a bunch of these stupid projects, 0.99
00:20:46.800 consulting contracts, you name it. Anyways, so I think you guys get my point here. 0.99
00:20:54.220 Affordability, really big issue for the Conservatives. Now, there's always social
00:20:57.620 issues that also work well. Immigration. Keep hammering on lowering immigration more. Crime.
00:21:03.520 Run on the death penalty. It's very popular. You might not believe it. Running on the death penalty
00:21:09.820 for serial murder so that we don't have all these serial murders going into low security prison.
00:21:15.340 Great issue. Run on a one strike policy for fentanyl dealing. You're dealing fentanyl. You
00:21:21.160 are basically an attempted murderer. You're going away for seven years. Run on something like that 0.98
00:21:26.640 on social issues. Run on some mildly pro-life policies. Because right now, the liberal policies
00:21:32.620 on maid and abortion are so ghoulish and dark, conservatives have a lot to win on this issue
00:21:38.800 because the liberals are so overextended. The dumb red Tory talking point, don't run on life 0.99
00:21:44.120 issues. You're going to be called anti-woman. Well, women, a lot of liberal women already think 1.00
00:21:48.940 the conservative party is anti-women. So why not run on a pro-life issue and get all the seniors 1.00
00:21:54.060 who are pro-life in the Maritimes who vote liberal because of their pensions, maybe actually
00:21:58.240 motivate them to vote conservative because they don't vote conservative because the conservatives
00:22:01.560 are pro-life. I'm not even kidding. That's what happens. Pro-life voters who are in the Maritimes
00:22:07.220 and Eastern and Southwest Ontario, they see no party running pro-life, so they vote for their
00:22:13.800 pension because that's the only other thing they really care about, and so they vote liberal
00:22:17.500 because they're the most pro-pension party that they can see. But anyways, with all that being
00:22:22.800 said i think you guys can get my point here make sure you like share subscribe leave a comment on
00:22:27.680 what you think about and if you live in north vancouver capilano hit the stephen curran url
00:22:35.120 at the pinned at the top the comments get a lawn sign if you live in the riding i hope i want
00:22:40.320 stephen curran to have over a thousand lawn signs in this by-election get some excitement in the
00:22:45.200 riding throw the bums out the liberals can actually lose this riding because although
00:22:49.920 jonathan wilkinson made it a safe liberal riding oftentimes a certain person who's personally
00:22:56.000 popular in area can make their riding safe for themselves as soon as they're out the door the
00:23:00.880 riding can flip back to the conservatives which what which is what it was before jonathan wilkinson
00:23:06.240 had taken the riding especially with the mdp running hard on the climate issue in the aftermath
00:23:11.280 of wilkinson and gilba guibo leaving partly because they didn't like that carney wasn't enough of a
00:23:17.200 zealot on the climate that opens up the door for the liberals to lose a bunch of their left flank
00:23:22.180 vote and the conservatives are running hard on property rights as well as cutting taxes as well
00:23:28.220 as building a pipeline as well as so on and so forth they can dig they can raise their 36 percent
00:23:34.780 they got last time to maybe 42 percent and be in that ball game anyways with all that being said
00:23:40.780 finally i always like i always say like finally guys well with all that being said and i'll say
00:23:46.020 it like three times before i wrap up the video but truly this is the end of video see you guys next