The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 30, 2025


Pollster rigs results to show FAKE Liberal surge! Canadians still hate Liberals

Topics
ECOS poll and Frank Graves manipulation
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Frank Graves Polyev Sam Harris Mark Carney Joe Biden Chrystia Freeland Elizabeth May Pierre Pauly Donald Trump Frank Gore Angus Reid Wyatt Jump
Jagmeet Singh is once again propping up the Trudeau Liberals - No early election Liberals memberships numbers are pathetic compared to Conservatives!

Episode Stats


Length

22 minutes

Words per minute

162.88

Word count

3,652

Sentence count

257

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

sentences flagged

Toxicity

13

sentences flagged

Hate speech

3

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

ECOS pollster Frank Graves is a clown, and he should be locked up for his own good, because he's been taking some crazy pills and now his brain is full of clown soup. I'll explain why, and why he needs to step down.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 It's no secret that I like to talk about polling on this channel, but what's so funny to me is that usually nobody demands that I cover a poll,
00:00:10.080 but this week I've been getting multiple demands to talk yet again about the ECOS poll that Frank Graves released
00:00:18.040 that supposedly shows that the liberals have nearly caught up with the federal conservatives.
00:00:24.400 This is complete nonsense, and I think that Frank Graves and ECOS are basically just trying to rig public opinion.
00:00:35.200 They're simply wanting to show you a poll like this, showing the liberals within three points of the conservatives,
00:00:41.340 to generate the idea that maybe the liberals are back.
00:00:45.700 Maybe the liberals have cleaned up their act and they deserve a second chance.
00:00:49.680 Polls like this, to be very clear, are not actually going to change public opinion.
00:00:56.180 It's not like if Canadians see enough polls like this, they're going to vote liberal.
00:00:59.800 The vast majority of Canadians hate the liberals.
00:01:03.360 I cannot put enough of an emphasis on the word hate when I say that Canadians hate the liberals.
00:01:09.300 Look at any government approval ratings from any of the other pollsters.
00:01:13.040 Aside from Trudeau, who has approval ratings equivalent to the bubonic plague,
00:01:19.040 the government itself has equally bad polling numbers.
00:01:23.880 Maybe Trudeau moving on will increase them?
00:01:26.840 Okay, but you will have to increase them by 10 to 20 points to actually be in the next federal election as a real player.
00:01:35.160 Any of the other pollsters, even with a liberal bump, and I do believe the liberals will get a bump from Trudeau moving on,
00:01:42.020 will still not be anywhere close to actually winning enough seats.
00:01:47.260 But look at this poll.
00:01:48.220 This is insane.
00:01:50.940 Frank Graves should be locked up for his own good, 1.00
00:01:53.960 because the man has been taking too many crazy pills, and now his brain is clown soup. 0.97
00:01:59.680 36% conservative, 33% liberal, NDP 13, Block 7, Green Party 5, PPC 5, and even other still gets 2. 0.62
00:02:10.380 And he has the audacity to say that his margin of error is 2.6%.
00:02:17.040 So these are the exact results he expects to happen in a real election, plus or minus 2.6%, guys.
00:02:26.040 That is so insane.
00:02:29.020 And the thing is that Frank Graves knows he's just manipulating public opinion.
00:02:32.960 Because if he had the medal to actually do it, he would have lowered the conservatives below the liberals and had the liberals leading.
00:02:44.720 But he's been mostly just taking from the NDP and giving it to the liberals.
00:02:49.060 Because even he knows that it makes no sense that the conservatives are even losing as much support as they have currently.
00:02:56.880 So to boost the liberals, he has to take votes away from the NDP.
00:03:00.420 The problem with that is the NDP is a cult.
00:03:03.860 The NDP owns its 15% at least.
00:03:08.540 It maybe gains 2 or 3 to maybe 5 or 6 points per election.
00:03:13.400 But most of the time, the NDP's floor is 15%.
00:03:16.620 You would have to work pretty hard to move the federal NDP below 15%.
00:03:22.580 But Frank Graves has pushed them that low just to make it look like Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland and the liberals have a chance.
00:03:30.440 It's not going to work.
00:03:31.560 I want to show you some of this stuff right now before I compare it directly to other polls.
00:03:37.320 This is Frank Graves' polling trajectory right now.
00:03:41.960 Look at this.
00:03:43.580 Look at it.
00:03:44.780 This is insane.
00:03:45.780 Back in December, by the way, he gave the conservatives a 25% lead over the liberals.
00:03:53.180 And this isn't, and someone might then try and say, well, Wyatt, you liked it when he put them 25 points up.
00:03:58.480 But you don't like it when he only has liberals 3% down?
00:04:03.420 No, no, no.
00:04:04.640 I just have a problem with ECOS in general.
00:04:07.480 Even when I saw them give the liberals or the conservatives a 25% lead, even in the back of my head, I kind of laughed at that, that somehow Frank Graves was even in the ballpark of what other pollsters were like.
00:04:20.200 I just thought it was a fluke.
00:04:22.420 But I guarantee you, when Frank Graves said that the conservatives were ahead 25 points, it was because he was trying to help shove Trudeau out of the prime minister's office to install Carney or Freeland.
00:04:36.080 Everything Frank Graves has done over the past two years has been motivated by political ends, not simply a pollster trying to be accurate.
00:04:45.720 And this is why he's motivated.
00:04:48.040 This is a tweet he deleted in 2022 in March.
00:04:52.440 He said,
00:04:52.780 And it kind of does seem like an idle threat when you delete it.
00:05:15.320 But it seems like he has at least stayed true to his commitment that he's going to try and keep Pierre Polly out of office.
00:05:22.960 Because this polling trend, it goes up for the conservatives when he's trying to agitate against Trudeau.
00:05:29.040 That other hump you see there is back in October or earlier in the year when there were initial calls for Trudeau to step down.
00:05:35.560 So when Frank Graves needs Trudeau to step down, conservative polling goes up.
00:05:40.300 When Trudeau starts stabilizing, it comes back down.
00:05:42.760 And when there's a renewed push to get him out of office, then he spikes it again to give the incentive to Freeland and others to tell Trudeau to go take a dirt nap.
00:05:52.320 And now that he needs a narrative to say that the liberals are actually making a comeback because of all the energy, all that raw energy that they're generating from their leadership race,
00:06:04.580 he then starts to show that the two parties are catching up.
00:06:07.560 It makes no sense.
00:06:09.100 And now I have to show you his polling tables.
00:06:14.400 They make even less sense than this.
00:06:17.320 This is his data tables for the IVR, which is actually a little bit friendlier to the conservatives than the online poll.
00:06:24.480 This is going to make literally no sense to you.
00:06:27.200 Protect your brains, folks. 0.97
00:06:28.660 This is going to hurt your face.
00:06:30.240 Before I get to it, guys, remember to like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, do all that great stuff.
00:06:35.980 I am suffering for you all by reading Frank Graves' polls.
00:06:39.820 And this pollster is still respected.
00:06:42.540 All the polling trend, other than Sheree Attiste and PoliWave, 338 Canada, all the other polling projectors and modelers on social media or who have their own websites,
00:06:55.980 are still carrying ecos and pretending like they're legitimate and not just removing their weighting to basically say, yeah, I guess they released a poll, but we don't put anything into it.
00:07:05.900 Look at this, guys.
00:07:07.040 This is the thing that matters the most.
00:07:09.480 The People's Party of Canada.
00:07:10.900 We have seen the People's Party of Canada in ridings where they got 5.6% last election, places like Cloverdale, Langley City.
00:07:20.860 When there is a by-election where it, in fact, should be easier for a small party to gain a larger percentage of the vote because, in theory, your hardcore base is going to show up and then you're going to get, instead of 5%, you're going to get 9%.
00:07:35.860 Simply because the same, like, 1,200 people show up for you in the by-election or 800 people where the other party's votes are, like, half, so your vote actually goes up.
00:07:47.360 The People's Party in places like Cloverdale, Langley City, where they got 5.6%, only got 0.9% in by-elections.
00:07:54.040 The People's Party is basically dead.
00:07:57.000 But in this Frank Gray's Fever Dream poll, look at this.
00:08:01.680 In Manitoba, the People's Party had 15.8%.
00:08:06.760 In Atlantic Canada, they had 8.9%.
00:08:09.440 Ontario, they had 5.2%.
00:08:11.040 But oddly enough, in Alberta, they only had 3.1%.
00:08:13.640 In Saskatchewan, they had 3.4%.
00:08:15.320 And in BC and the territories, they had 1.3%.
00:08:17.880 That makes no sense.
00:08:19.640 If you understand the People's Party, their strength in terms of raw popular vote is in, I would agree, Manitoba, but not 15.8% Manitoba.
00:08:29.320 But it's in Alberta.
00:08:30.640 Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.
00:08:33.960 Nowhere was there a riding in Atlanta, Canada, that I believe they got more than 10% in the last election.
00:08:40.520 But multiple ridings in the Prairies, they actually did score above 10% in very rural ridings, like Portage Lisger, where Maxime Bernier ran in that by-election.
00:08:51.620 But he also lost votes compared to 2021, because it's not a confidently-run party.
00:08:56.580 The Green Party, in this poll, Green Party, got 5% in Atlantic Canada, 5.2% in Quebec, 5.5% in Ontario, and 5.1% in BC and the territories.
00:09:09.860 That one makes sense, because Elizabeth May has a riding there. 1.00
00:09:13.280 But no.
00:09:14.620 That's just unrealistic for them.
00:09:17.040 They are scoring 8.5% with people under the age of 35. 0.97
00:09:20.640 This is just clown world.
00:09:24.020 This is not a real election at all. 0.94
00:09:28.160 This is not an actual thing that people recognize.
00:09:31.140 And you can tell what Frank Graves is doing here, because he's weighted university-educated people as being an extremely high portion of the electorate.
00:09:41.620 And then he doesn't correct for the fact that in many of these provinces, where he has really wacky results, just completely wild, out-of-left-field results, like his previous poll was even weirder.
00:09:55.800 It seems like he's correcting to make this poll seem more legitimate, even as the actual overall top-line results get more insane.
00:10:04.620 Because as he gets the Liberals coming closer to the Conservatives, that is so unrealistic.
00:10:08.900 But to make it seem realistic, he's corrected from his last poll, where the Greens were at 18% in Atlantic Canada in his subcharts, before he had cooked the numbers to look good on the national side.
00:10:20.220 This is just a ploy to try and get Liberal donors to give money to the party.
00:10:24.680 So that Liberal people can go to their donor networks and say, hey guys, we're within 3% now because Carney's running.
00:10:32.920 Carney has no chance of winning, at all.
00:10:35.620 Now I'm going to show you just how off these polls are.
00:10:39.640 Because it's not just my opinion.
00:10:41.960 It's not just conjecture.
00:10:44.000 It actively doesn't make any sense.
00:10:45.840 So look at this.
00:10:46.620 This is 338's kind of bullseye chart, where this is rating polls on how much more they poll the Liberals or Conservatives up or down below what the 338 average is.
00:11:01.540 So that Canadian maple leaf right in the middle, that is the 338 average, and all these gray dots are past polls and where they've been.
00:11:09.140 So on the right, you see Liberal Party higher than 338 average, and on the left, it's the Liberal Party polling lower than the 338 average.
00:11:17.280 Above is the Conservative Party polling more than the 338 average currently has them.
00:11:22.480 And then, of course, if you go south, it is the Conservative Party polling lower than the 338 average previously was.
00:11:31.680 And a bunch of new polls show things shifting a little bit in favor of the Liberals and a little bit away from the Conservatives.
00:11:38.400 Makes sense.
00:11:39.180 The Liberals were at 20% in many of the previous polls.
00:11:43.420 They had only room to improve.
00:11:45.740 They were basically at rock bottom, and as soon as Trudeau stepped down, it was predictable that they were going to bounce back a bit.
00:11:54.040 I do not contend with that.
00:11:56.080 And then you have a couple other polls, Ipsos Research Code, Angus Reid, that show the Liberal Party still falling down since Trudeau stepped down,
00:12:04.620 or the Liberal Parties have stabilized a bit, but the Conservatives are continuing to increase.
00:12:08.760 Do you want to see where, and this is, you know, Abacus, Leger, Nanos, Palace, Main Street,
00:12:13.820 they all show the Liberals improving a bit as time goes on by a few percent.
00:12:18.420 They're at mid-20s right now.
00:12:20.260 Do you want to see where ECOS is?
00:12:23.040 I've heard people say that because these pollsters show the Liberals increasing a bit,
00:12:26.840 it confirms the trend ECOS is on.
00:12:29.140 ECOS is not even on the chart.
00:12:31.320 This is where ECOS is, because they're not credible.
00:12:34.900 No, this is not, as I've said in previous videos, this is not how public opinion works.
00:12:42.760 ECOS cannot take a reading of Canadians on December 18th, showing the Conservatives leading by 25%.
00:12:49.160 That, by the way, was before, I believe, or basically right after Christia Freeland had resigned from her post,
00:12:56.140 but before there was a lot of momentum to kick Trudeau out of office.
00:13:00.020 25% Conservative lead.
00:13:01.720 Jump ahead to January 27th, only a little bit more than a month later.
00:13:09.040 Now the Liberals are within three points.
00:13:12.800 I believe in polling trends when they're motivated.
00:13:17.140 When I say motivated, I don't mean well-motivated or not well-motivated.
00:13:21.220 I'm talking about a different type of motivation,
00:13:23.520 in the sense that if the Conservative polling went down significantly,
00:13:27.680 like ECOS is showing, but the Conservatives had a massive scandal hit,
00:13:32.980 I could kind of believe it.
00:13:34.700 The Liberals bounce back a bit, like in some of the other pollsters,
00:13:37.740 because Trudeau steps down.
00:13:38.680 That's believable.
00:13:39.620 I absolutely understand that.
00:13:41.240 And some, if the Liberals bounce back, some of their gain is going to come from the Conservatives.
00:13:45.660 So I can see the Liberals gaining a bit, and the Conservatives losing a bit.
00:13:49.400 Perfectly normal polling trend.
00:13:50.920 But when I see the Liberals shoot up, and the Conservatives shoot down,
00:13:57.320 I don't believe you.
00:13:59.740 Because there's nothing in the current Canadian news cycle
00:14:03.380 that would motivate the voting public to move their opinions around like that.
00:14:09.220 The Liberals right now are playing with about 6% of Canadians
00:14:13.760 willing to jump back and forth between the Conservatives and Liberals,
00:14:17.500 or NDP and Liberals, based on who the leader is.
00:14:20.920 That still puts them in, like, death territory,
00:14:24.560 where they're only going to win 60 seats.
00:14:26.880 They're dead in the water at any of the other pollsters' bounce.
00:14:31.380 Let me show you something else.
00:14:33.360 This is absolutely insane.
00:14:35.020 Do you know that this poll, as Polling Canada shows on Twitter,
00:14:41.120 this poll would give the PPC four seats in Manitoba. 1.00
00:14:47.360 It's almost like having a sample size of only 40 people is extremely stupid. 0.99
00:14:52.760 If you do a national poll and you have a sample size of 500, that could work. 0.99
00:14:59.220 But if your regionals don't even make sense,
00:15:02.160 because you had extreme outliers answering your poll,
00:15:05.620 you need a bigger sample size.
00:15:07.900 This is the thing.
00:15:08.680 When your results don't make sense to physical reality to normal people in the real world,
00:15:16.400 either you need to reweight your results to be more in line with what other pollsters have been showing,
00:15:23.260 or you need to go back to the field and go survey more people.
00:15:29.500 Frank Graves doesn't want to do that because he needs to show a positive trend for the Liberals.
00:15:34.880 What would motivate a man to do such a thing?
00:15:37.820 Well, I don't know.
00:15:38.740 Maybe his company is being given hundreds of thousands of dollars from the federal government.
00:15:43.560 Look, contract date, November 25, 2024, for Ecos Research Associates.
00:15:49.920 $154,000.
00:15:51.780 December 11, 2024, he is given $207,000.
00:15:57.280 Thousand smackeroonies. 1.00
00:15:58.960 I don't, I, but of course, Frank Graves,
00:16:03.040 the man who issued this tweet saying he doesn't make idle threats
00:16:05.960 and he doesn't want Polyev ever leading his country,
00:16:09.200 he has too much integrity to rig a poll
00:16:11.740 or to at least not check if his results are obvious outliers
00:16:17.400 and that he needs better data.
00:16:19.160 The problem is, is that he does some IVR polling,
00:16:22.040 which is someone picks up a phone,
00:16:23.780 they hear a robotic voice say,
00:16:25.540 who do you want to vote for?
00:16:26.840 And it's like a bunch of options.
00:16:28.220 And then you hit the number for the option that you want.
00:16:30.660 The problem is, is that if he gets a wonky IVR result
00:16:34.360 or he doesn't care if all of the numbers are coming from metropolitan areas,
00:16:39.440 then he can pretend that it's a normal poll result,
00:16:43.860 even though he mostly targeted only cities for the, for the phones,
00:16:48.060 like for the phone calls.
00:16:49.560 And then with online polls,
00:16:52.140 he can just not care that he has hyper-partisans in the polling sample
00:16:56.660 and that is leaning heavily towards the Greens and the PPC disproportionately.
00:17:01.480 And that throws off the conservative vote
00:17:03.700 because a lot of conservatives, you know, are casual voters.
00:17:07.860 They're not hardcores.
00:17:08.840 But the problem is online polls self-select for the couple percentage of people
00:17:12.560 in every party that are hardcores. 0.85
00:17:15.340 And Frank Graves doesn't want to actually do anything about that
00:17:18.600 because again, it helps the liberals not to do anything about it.
00:17:23.500 And again, what I think this is, is one,
00:17:27.220 trying to create a bandwagon effect that people are going to start voting liberal again
00:17:31.580 because it looks like other people are.
00:17:33.660 That's the least likely to work because that's not how public opinion works.
00:17:37.000 People don't see a poll and then decide they're going to vote like other people.
00:17:39.860 It has a little bit of an effect around the margins, but not much.
00:17:42.740 The main two other things, number two and three,
00:17:46.360 the other two motivations I think there is going on here,
00:17:49.700 is he wants liberal donors to open their wallets up
00:17:52.540 and to give more money to the liberals
00:17:53.820 because now the liberals can show that they're catching the conservatives.
00:17:57.180 Or he also wants more votes to go towards the PPC
00:18:00.340 because look, they can win seats now
00:18:02.140 and more PPC people are going to give the PPC money
00:18:05.200 even though the party does not do any work
00:18:07.940 to make it so that people actually vote for them.
00:18:10.560 But it can be disruptive,
00:18:12.560 not because they've legitimately done the work
00:18:14.760 and become a substantial force in politics,
00:18:17.600 but simply because Frank Graves has said so
00:18:20.280 and it allows the PPC to also propagandize
00:18:22.940 its own voters to vote for them.
00:18:25.800 This is absolutely insane.
00:18:27.720 The conservatives in the NDP
00:18:28.900 should almost think about teaming up and suing Frank Graves
00:18:31.880 because I guarantee Frank Graves,
00:18:34.080 if you got him to actually testify,
00:18:36.540 could not actually stand by the integrity of the polls
00:18:38.820 and say that these are legitimate results
00:18:41.160 that he would stand by in any other election.
00:18:44.160 Because he, in the past, as he has stated,
00:18:47.020 and he's somewhat right,
00:18:48.320 has had far more realistic results in other elections.
00:18:51.080 But in this one, suddenly everything's completely cattywampus
00:18:53.960 and, oh, well, you just don't like it
00:18:56.000 because your party's down.
00:18:57.860 Easy for you to say
00:18:59.080 when you're the guy who hates Polyev
00:19:01.080 and you seem to be motivated to make him look bad
00:19:03.540 unless you also need Trudeau out of office
00:19:05.680 because you don't think he can win
00:19:06.900 and you're willing to dump a bunch of bad polls out.
00:19:09.520 This is exactly like when Joe Biden
00:19:11.640 had his terrible debate performance against Donald Trump
00:19:14.260 and then his internal party people
00:19:16.620 started leaking every conveniently bad poll
00:19:19.460 that they had internally for Biden
00:19:21.080 to try and shame him out
00:19:22.640 to then install Kamala Harris. 0.72
00:19:24.940 This is the installing Kamala Harris moment.
00:19:27.340 Frank Graves makes him look really bad
00:19:28.820 by spiking the conservatives in mid-December
00:19:31.020 and now that Kamala Harris, Mark Carney, or Christopher Freeland
00:19:34.880 are coming in as leader,
00:19:36.020 now he needs to show that they're actually increasing
00:19:38.740 and they're doing super well
00:19:40.200 and everyone loves them
00:19:41.220 and they're so brat and all this stuff. 0.77
00:19:43.600 No. 0.94
00:19:44.560 Nobody likes them either.
00:19:46.080 Look at any poll that Abacus Data has done
00:19:49.180 on government approval
00:19:50.120 or any other of the pollsters have done
00:19:51.840 on government approval.
00:19:53.740 It's in the low 20s at best.
00:19:55.980 It's terrible
00:19:56.920 because people understand
00:19:58.580 Trudeau is the main problem
00:20:00.700 in the liberal government
00:20:01.640 but it's just because he's the prime minister.
00:20:03.920 The prime minister is always going to be the main problem.
00:20:06.100 But the main problem as to why you get a figure
00:20:08.480 like Trudeau leading that party
00:20:10.140 and causing all the problems
00:20:11.180 is the liberal party brass
00:20:13.420 who approves of people like Trudeau
00:20:15.340 being in those positions of power.
00:20:17.160 It's insane.
00:20:18.800 Anyways,
00:20:19.920 that should be it for me today, guys.
00:20:22.240 I hope you don't mind me
00:20:24.300 staring at little pieces of data
00:20:26.600 on screen like this
00:20:27.820 and talking about very minute polling details.
00:20:31.920 ECOS is just a terrible pollster.
00:20:34.560 Nobody should trust them
00:20:35.800 and more people need to be aware
00:20:37.580 that they're not real.
00:20:38.920 So if you ever have a family member
00:20:40.680 or a friend talk about the liberals coming back
00:20:43.260 and the Polyev and the conservatives are scared
00:20:45.320 don't say,
00:20:47.060 oh, everyone hates the liberals. 1.00
00:20:48.240 They suck. 1.00
00:20:48.920 How could you vote liberal? 1.00
00:20:49.820 Just give them information
00:20:51.400 on what ECOS is all about.
00:20:53.580 How much Frank Graves hates Polyev
00:20:55.320 and how do you really think
00:20:57.580 that the Greens were 18% at one point
00:20:59.940 in Atlantic Canada?
00:21:01.340 Do you really think that Manitoba
00:21:03.880 is a 16% PPC province
00:21:07.640 despite the fact Winnipeg exists?
00:21:10.340 They will not be able to defend this
00:21:12.180 and they will clownish if they do.
00:21:14.120 It's wild
00:21:14.980 looking at all of the liberal influencers online
00:21:17.280 who display themselves as experts.
00:21:19.940 I'm a doctor.
00:21:21.200 I have a PhD.
00:21:22.980 And they'll believe ECOS polling.
00:21:25.400 No.
00:21:26.260 Having an education doesn't mean you're smart.
00:21:28.580 It just means that you're usually able
00:21:30.460 to make stuff up better than other people
00:21:32.460 because most of these people have PhDs in nonsense.
00:21:36.160 Anyways.
00:21:37.120 So that's it for me to get today, guys.
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00:21:56.700 Bye.
00:21:56.780 Bye.
00:21:57.200 Bye.
00:21:57.300 Bye.
00:21:57.620 Bye.
00:21:58.140 Bye.
00:21:58.240 Bye.
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