The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Singh's NDP got FEWER votes than Quebec Separatist BQ!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I think we all assumed it couldn't get any more embarrassing

00:00:06.220 for the federal NDP than it was on election night on April 28th. As a quick recap, the NDP had their

00:00:14.100 leader Jagmeet Singh come in a distant third place in his home riding a Burnaby Centre. He then

00:00:19.480 shortly resigned after that because of course he had to at that point. And the party fell from

00:00:24.700 around 18.5% of the vote in 2021 to just getting about 6.7%. But it didn't seem all that bad. At

00:00:33.240 least they still came third place in terms of the popular vote. Not in seats, but in terms of the

00:00:38.720 popular vote, they came third. Well, as Elections Canada has been consolidating results and counting

00:00:45.280 special ballots, they have fallen into fourth place in terms of the popular vote. Chase Zaba has put

00:00:52.800 this into a nice format right here, and it shows that now the Liberals have around 8.5 million votes,

00:00:59.940 Conservatives 8.1 million. Bloc has 1,236,000, and the NDP has 1,234,000. Now, maybe if you don't

00:01:12.260 understand Canadian politics, you don't know why this is so embarrassing, but a little bit of an

00:01:18.480 overview, if you don't know yet. The Bloc Québécois, a Quebec separatist party, only runs in Quebec.

00:01:27.380 The New Democrats ran in every single riding minus one. In fact, both the Conservatives and the

00:01:34.380 Liberals also had missed a single riding for getting a candidate in, so they all were running basically

00:01:40.580 full slates minus one. And the NDP, having a name on effectively every single ballot across the

00:01:47.240 country, brought in fewer votes than the Bloc. That should be impossible. But they made it happen

00:01:57.320 because they're a party that stopped representing anything. I am amazed by the fact that they even

00:02:03.060 ran Jagmeet Singh a third time. Even in his leadership review, it should have been obvious this

00:02:08.560 isn't the right guy. In October of 2023, he only received 81% of the vote in a leadership confidence

00:02:16.420 vote. That is not very good in what is a very collectivistic party. The thing with the Conservatives

00:02:23.540 is there's a lot of factions to the Conservative Party, both the Federal Conservative Party as well

00:02:28.220 as a different Provincial Conservative Party. You have your Social Conservatives, you have your

00:02:32.240 Fiscal Libertarians, you have your Red Tories, and then you have people who joined the party because of

00:02:37.980 niche pet issues that matter to them, whether it's the gun people, whether it's people who are there

00:02:43.860 for like farming issues, or people there because of something to do with, you know, oil and gas, or

00:02:50.620 like, what is it, fishing, fisheries. There's a lot of people in Newfoundland who really care about those,

00:02:56.220 and that's why they're actually part of the Conservative Party. The thing is, the NDP is just a

00:02:59.920 progressive trade unionist party. There's really not that much diversity. There is like the private

00:03:05.980 union side, and there is the public union side, and then I guess there's like the Hamas activist side,

00:03:11.540 but everything is far more homogenous in the NDP. Getting only 18% support in a party where there's a

00:03:18.460 lot of pressure to just be in favor of whatever HQ says is absolutely embarrassing. Again, Conservatives

00:03:24.780 tend to be used to rebelling against their leaders once they don't like the direction, and in fact, in 2019,

00:03:30.520 they got rid of Andrew Scheer, or I guess the year after, they got rid of Andrew Scheer, and then

00:03:36.040 in 2021, they quickly got rid of Aaron O'Toole because both of those leaders failed. Even Stephen

00:03:41.820 Harper stepped down after 2015, despite the fact that he had won in the past. Well, it's because

00:03:46.460 Conservatives tend to require more of their leaders than simply doing a little bit better than last

00:03:51.700 time. It looks like Pierre Polyev is going to stay on because you could say that it really wasn't his

00:03:56.720 fault that the Conservative Party lost. Yes, there's mitigating circumstance in the election, there's

00:04:01.480 Donald Trump, there's the fact that Trudeau stepped down, but the main issue for the Conservatives is that

00:04:05.780 there are very incompetent people like Jenny Burns at the top of HQ who were telling candidates to do all

00:04:11.960 the wrong things and were running very poor messaging. Polyev was a net positive, many people in HQ were

00:04:17.380 net negative, so I do hope that they get replaced, but somehow Jagmeet got to go three times, and now his

00:04:24.860 party gets fewer votes running in 342 ridings than the Bloc got running in 79 ridings. The per capita

00:04:36.300 metrics on this are utterly abysmal. Like, the Bloc mostly held on to all of its votes, minus 65,000.

00:04:43.740 The NDP lost 1,800,001 votes. They've lost, they only got 40% of the votes that they got last time.

00:04:54.240 I know they went from 18.5% of the share just to 6.7. They got a few, their percentage of raw vote is

00:05:01.620 a little bit better because, of course, turnout was better, and naturally some people turned out for

00:05:05.960 the NDP in that higher turnout, but for the most part, the NDP vote went to other parties. And now

00:05:11.820 in a second here, I want to show some stuff that's happened to the NDP since then. So now they have

00:05:17.820 chosen a new interim leader from their caucus, and that would be Don Davies from, I believe,

00:05:25.560 Vancouver Kingsway. Very longtime NDP MP. He's an old lawyer who used to represent Teamster unions.

00:05:34.200 If anything, he's actually kind of the guy you'd assume the NDP would be running with. Not a

00:05:38.540 particularly inspiring figure. You know, not exactly Jack Layton, probably not even Tom Mulcair,

00:05:44.800 but better than hyper-progressive and pre-ning Jagmeet Singh, who really doesn't represent the

00:05:50.260 type of voters that the party's always done very well with. The party used to do really well

00:05:55.400 in places like Hamilton. They would win a lot of these working class ridings, especially when

00:06:00.500 Jack Layton was around in 2011, and they held on to most of them in 2015. But now with Jagmeet Singh,

00:06:08.080 it was like the party only appealed to people in progressive college towns, places where there

00:06:12.700 was a lot of public sector workers, and that's kind of it. But even then, the liberals in this

00:06:18.360 election had a better pull on the public sector unions, and the conservative had a better pull on

00:06:23.800 the private sector unions. That's why the conservatives absolutely killed it in places like Windsor

00:06:28.820 and places like Kitchener, South Hesper, those areas, they did really well where there was sort

00:06:36.580 of working class types of people. But the funniest thing is, after they picked Don Davies, we had one

00:06:43.280 of their other surviving MPs, by the way, there's only seven of them, who said to this post from Tom

00:06:50.400 Parkins saying, Don Davies is new NDP interim leader, formerly a labor movement lawyer with the

00:06:55.480 teamsters, now the MP for Vancouver Kingsway. Leah Proud Lakota, whose name is Leah Gazin, she, her,

00:07:02.720 says, great finding out through the news, go quote team NDP. I don't know why she's upset. Leah Gazin,

00:07:11.340 the MP for Winnipeg Center, she signed up for this. She signed up for the top-down party,

00:07:17.620 the top-down collectivist party. Why does she get to dictate to them? She's enjoyed the way the NDP's

00:07:23.400 operated for years at this point, apparently. And if she hasn't, well, it's kind of her fault for not

00:07:28.680 speaking up. Leah Gazin, I made the joke a couple days ago, she must just be upset that they didn't

00:07:33.940 pick Yahya Sinwar as the new leader of the party, because so many of the NDP MPs, including Leah Gazin

00:07:41.660 and some of the other surviving NDP MPs like Heather McPherson, are more concerned with Gaza and

00:07:49.240 Palestine than they are with their own constituencies. It was crazy how often you'd see

00:07:54.280 these people wearing keffias in Parliament, completely disconnected from the day-to-day

00:07:58.660 issues of Canadians. Didn't care about the drug crisis, didn't care about the cost of living

00:08:02.680 crisis. If they did, it was insofar as that it gave them an excuse to try and spend more money on

00:08:08.380 random programs rather than just giving people their own money back. Now, I just want to quickly

00:08:13.280 highlight some other things regarding stuff that's happened. One, I got to read this post

00:08:18.300 from Jagmeet Singh that I actually didn't see back during the election. I love how he said this.

00:08:24.460 It's been an honor of my life to lead the NDP and to represent the people of Burnaby Central.

00:08:30.020 Congratulations to Prime Minister Carney and to all those leaders on a hard-fought campaign.

00:08:35.060 I know this night is disappointing for new Democrats. He says this despite the fact that days

00:08:40.640 before the election, he says he's perfectly fine gutting the NDP so that the liberals can beat the

00:08:45.900 conservatives. So why is he acting like this is a disappointment? This was effectively planned,

00:08:51.880 at least by his own statements. It sounds like it was planned. And the idea that he was representing

00:08:56.680 Burnaby Center is absolutely insane. There is nothing about the NDP that has been particularly

00:09:01.680 grassroots about their campaigning. There's a reason why they had their base gutted by other parties

00:09:07.500 because their people don't really represent the areas that they live in. They're activists and

00:09:12.020 they represent activists before they represent anyone on a local level. That is what the liberals

00:09:17.100 and the conservatives do well. Now, I am not a liberal. I am a conservative. So obviously I like

00:09:21.580 the conservatives better. But the liberal party and the conservative party has always tried to

00:09:26.040 emphasize having its MPs be local champions. I think that's gone down in recent years, which is a big

00:09:33.260 black mark on both parties that it seems like people tend to represent party leadership than

00:09:38.040 their own constituencies. But the NDP have always just been so in tune with the activist class that

00:09:43.760 they have never actually ever considered whether or not somebody likes things that they're voting for

00:09:49.200 or not in their local areas. They just happen to get elected because there are heavy union presidents

00:09:53.200 in the area to help their campaigns. Not that a lot of people actually like them.

00:09:57.120 But I got to say, the new NDP leader, as much as he's probably an improvement on Jagmeet Singh,

00:10:04.360 is not falling that far from the tree here. So Don Davies, two days ago, says,

00:10:09.280 on May 5th, we joined together to focus on the ongoing crisis of missing and murdered indigenous women,

00:10:14.460 girls, 2SLGBTQI plus people. Today we remember, we mourn, we commit to justice, safety, and support.

00:10:21.040 Now, I have no problem with this tweet, other than the whole point of the day is missing and murdered

00:10:26.820 women and indigenous women and girls. And then he just randomly just throws in 2SLGBTQ because they

00:10:33.140 have to, because it's the NDP and you have to say it, even though it's actually kind of spitting on

00:10:38.760 those who you're trying to represent, because you're just randomly jamming in a different identity

00:10:43.880 politics issue into this whole thing. It's too, it's just dumb. Anyways, one other thing I want to show

00:10:51.920 you here, because I think it is just an interesting stat, is how votes have shifted around Canada

00:10:57.920 since the 2021 election. Now, there are very few places in Canada that votes have decreased for the

00:11:06.140 Liberals since the last election, naturally since the Liberal Party or the NDP completely collapsed.

00:11:12.980 This is all effectively Jagmeet Singh is doing on a macro level. So right here, this is where I'm going

00:11:19.680 to be breaking this down in a future video, the kind of bright spots for the Conservatives. But in

00:11:24.780 general, you can see the map is very red with the Liberals being up in the vote. But what you'll

00:11:30.360 notice is places around Toronto and around Montreal, as well as in the Maritimes and Upper Quebec,

00:11:37.940 have actually gotten more Conservative, which is actually good to see. Or at least they've become

00:11:43.440 less Liberal, but they've naturally only, they've only become more Conservative because that's the only

00:11:48.300 other party gaining votes here. This is actually a pretty good setup for the Conservatives. What

00:11:54.580 you'll notice is that the places, like Toronto right here, the places where the Liberals have

00:11:59.700 gained the most vote is these blood red little areas where the Liberals were already winning.

00:12:06.720 The Conservatives, or the places that become less Liberal, are places that the Liberals used to win by

00:12:11.080 not that many votes. Some of these places did go towards the Conservatives, like the Vons,

00:12:15.460 like Richmond Hill, like Markham, those sorts of places. And there are some places that are on the

00:12:21.300 verge of flipping, or places where the Liberals only gained a few votes because the NDP completely

00:12:26.780 collapsed. The Liberals definitely gained a lot in this election, but when I do my breakdown in the

00:12:33.260 future, I'm going to explain how they're not in a great position in terms of future elections. It's not

00:12:38.360 like they're now going to win the next two elections because they did so well. Most of the

00:12:42.540 ridings that the Liberals picked up, it was a riding where the Conservatives won it by five points last

00:12:47.420 time, and now the Liberals won it by, you know, four to seven points. It's a swing. It's more than

00:12:53.140 you would like to see, but it's not quite like the Conservative victories in certain places like

00:12:57.980 Windsor West, where the Conservatives used to only get 18% of the vote there. They were not in the

00:13:03.460 conversation to even win it. They hadn't actually won it since the 30s or the 50s, but they ended up

00:13:09.520 having a massive swing of 45 points send them into office. So in a future video, whether it's

00:13:16.320 tomorrow or the next day, I'm going to be doing a breakdown of a few Conservative flip ridings and

00:13:22.080 Liberal flip ridings and demonstrate the difference in where the Liberals are doing well, where the

00:13:27.760 Conservatives are doing well, and who's likely to have their results hold up better. Because in my

00:13:32.420 opinion, it looks like the Conservatives are going to be able to hold on to the territory they have better

00:13:36.740 than the Liberals can. Naturally, that's maybe like more of an obvious thing, because the Conservatives

00:13:43.860 have won fewer ridings. And naturally, some of those are going to be stronger, the proportion of

00:13:47.960 safe ridings. But even the new pickups that the Conservatives have are far more likely to stay

00:13:52.660 Conservative than some of the pickups the Liberals got, like in Peterborough, like in South Surrey,

00:13:57.440 White Rock, like in Carleton, like in places like, I think it's Cumberland, Colchester. Those are places

00:14:05.300 where the Conservatives had won it by a wide margin previously, and now the Liberals have won it by

00:14:10.100 a few points. Something that can easily flip back if the Liberal government's performance is not top

00:14:15.060 notch. So anyways, that's it for me today, guys. Make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel,

00:14:20.220 leave a comment, do all that fantastic stuff, and I will see you guys next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - May 08, 2025

Singh's NDP got FEWER votes than Quebec Separatist BQ!

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