The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - SNAP ELECTION： Carney using Trudeau-style handouts to win votes!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here.

00:00:02.800 It looks like snap election time for Canada,

00:00:05.780 as indicated by Prime Minister Mark Carney at a press conference this morning

00:00:09.720 where he failed to answer a very straightforward question

00:00:12.900 as to whether or not he is considering triggering a spring 2026 election.

00:00:19.000 Now let's be clear.

00:00:20.320 If the answer was no, Mark Carney would have just said no.

00:00:24.080 Obviously, he'll never say yes either.

00:00:26.300 He's never going to let the opposition know that we're going to have a snap election in three months.

00:00:30.200 He'll just come out and trigger it.

00:00:31.840 But by not saying no, Carney is absolutely indicating he's thinking about doing it.

00:00:37.160 That doesn't mean the snap election will happen in the spring,

00:00:39.680 but I would ballpark it at this point as there being an 80% chance of an election occurring sometime in 2026.

00:00:47.940 In fact, every single party in Parliament right now is incentivized to go to the polls.

00:00:53.780 And so I'm going to talk about the motivations of the different parties a little bit later in this video.

00:00:58.480 But first, I want to start off with Carney's absolutely terrible answer to the question,

00:01:03.780 as well as the overall press conference, which is obviously effectively an election announcement.

00:01:09.940 Mark Carney is going to start putting out Trudeau-style giveaway programs

00:01:13.320 to try and bring Canadians over to the Liberal Party if a snap election occurs.

00:01:18.520 But before I get into it, I just want to remind you guys,

00:01:21.620 if you like the channel, make sure to leave a like on this video.

00:01:25.280 Subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber.

00:01:27.840 Leave a comment about what you think about all this stuff,

00:01:30.220 especially whether or not you think a snap election is going to occur.

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00:01:37.740 and make a small monthly contribution to help make the channel more sustainable for me

00:01:42.360 and make me less reliant on the very unreliable YouTube algorithm.

00:01:47.360 But now let's jump into this clip from Mark Carney, not answering this question.

00:01:53.620 Good morning, Prime Minister McKenzie Grape, Global News.

00:01:55.920 Are you considering calling a snap election this spring?

00:01:59.200 I'm going to go back to the previous answer.

00:02:02.140 What we're focused on is solutions for Canadians.

00:02:06.660 So today's announcement, we'll be tabling legislations soon, very soon.

00:02:12.020 We would love and we think it's very important to have collaboration

00:02:16.140 so we can move that quickly through Parliament.

00:02:18.400 So particularly the one-time bonus gets into people's bank accounts as quickly as possible.

00:02:27.860 This is effectively like Justin Trudeau's carbon tax scheme.

00:02:32.200 They're going to be giving out a GST rebate on groceries to people

00:02:35.460 in order so that they are incentivized to vote for the Liberals so the benefit does not go away.

00:02:41.620 Now, we could just lower taxes, but instead we have this rebate program.

00:02:45.580 But what you'll notice here at the very beginning is that that was a pretty clear question.

00:02:50.940 Are you going to have a spring election or not?

00:02:52.600 And he basically dodged as fast as he could.

00:02:55.500 Good morning, Prime Minister McKenzie Grape, Global News.

00:02:57.880 Are you considering calling a snap election this spring?

00:03:00.120 I'm going to go back to the previous answer.

00:03:04.720 The previous answer did not help clarify anything because the previous question that that answer was to

00:03:11.920 had nothing to do with an election.

00:03:14.240 So Carney is absolutely thinking about doing it.

00:03:17.580 And I want to go into what he's doing here at the press conference overall.

00:03:21.520 Well, this, as I said, is a giveaway program.

00:03:24.940 He is trying to basically create a referendum on whether or not you want to keep your benefits

00:03:30.540 because the Conservatives are going to take away your benefits.

00:03:33.580 Now, I would hope that the Conservatives would actually get rid of a lot of these stupid programs

00:03:37.860 the Liberals are rolling out, these stupid rebates, because we shouldn't have rebates.

00:03:42.080 We should just be cutting taxes.

00:03:43.480 And so what Mark Carney is trying to do right now is put up as many landmines as possible.

00:03:49.540 So here is another question that he got about this whole rebate program, which is apparently

00:03:53.960 going to, you know, a bunch of the money that is going to, is like being put towards it right now.

00:04:00.240 And it's going to apparently, I think, give people 50% of their GST money back on groceries.

00:04:05.120 So like a family of four, as, you know, quoted in Liberal Propaganda, they get like $790 or

00:04:11.940 $750 back in the first year.

00:04:15.300 Okay, it's still nickel and diming people when really people's financial problems go far beyond

00:04:22.000 $790 at the grocery store.

00:04:24.940 Most people are trying to dodge the GST as much as they can already by just buying cheaper

00:04:29.200 stuff.

00:04:29.880 So this is really like, I don't know, a fairly pathetic type of a thing to be announcing.

00:04:34.300 As a guy who's like, you know, the chair of Brookfield and the former governor of the Bank

00:04:38.840 of Canada in England, just little stupid giveaway programs that Justin Trudeau was known for.

00:04:43.840 Benefit your, the GST credit, how much is this benefit actually going to cost overall, like

00:04:48.840 these new initiatives?

00:04:51.500 And as well, what's to stop grocery retailers from raising their prices to just absorb this

00:04:56.540 benefit?

00:04:57.060 Okay, so I'll answer both legs of that, obviously.

00:05:01.660 The first interest.

00:05:02.500 And that's a good question, because the problem is, this GST cut is not actually this temporary

00:05:09.840 rebate.

00:05:10.720 It's not actually lowering input costs.

00:05:13.420 It is simply deferring a GST payment that would usually be on the consumer to put forward

00:05:19.960 the money for it.

00:05:20.580 Because, you know, by saying that a grocery store has to put 5% more on every item in order

00:05:26.360 to pay the GST off, if you remove it, is that enough of a removal taking 2.5% off the price

00:05:33.160 of things from the GST?

00:05:34.640 Is that really going to incentivize grocery stores to overall lower their prices?

00:05:38.780 Because many of the grocery stores are hurting so bad right now, just as all businesses are

00:05:43.720 hurting so bad.

00:05:44.700 They're probably just going to absorb this into their profit margin in order to make themselves

00:05:48.580 more sustainable.

00:05:49.200 And you can't blame them for it.

00:05:51.000 This would actually be a good program if you just cut taxes.

00:05:53.800 But the liberals don't want to cut taxes.

00:05:55.400 They want you to be more reliant on government.

00:05:57.380 In terms of the numbers, and I'm sorry, this is a test.

00:05:59.520 You're testing me in front of my minister, who knows it down to the cent.

00:06:03.360 But the cost the first year is a little over $3 billion, $3.1 billion.

00:06:13.380 And the reason for that is this payment, the boost is the way I referred to it, which makes

00:06:21.280 up for if you had overall levels of inflation and then food price inflation going like that

00:06:26.800 since the pandemic.

00:06:28.860 Can you add a third hand?

00:06:31.180 It makes up for the difference between those two lines.

00:06:34.100 Okay, it makes up for this.

00:06:35.040 So there's the bigger amount.

00:06:36.740 Then in the subsequent four years, there's the 25% increase in the GST credit.

00:06:42.540 And there's a bit of a timing thing.

00:06:44.480 So but in effect, it goes $3.1, $1.3 billion, and then about $1.8 billion for those last three

00:06:52.620 years.

00:06:53.080 Okay, there's a timing issue with we can provide.

00:06:56.260 Uh, basically, what this is indicating is this is just a chunk of change for the government,

00:07:01.120 they're going to send out checks to people, they want them to vote for them.

00:07:04.800 Uh, and it's basically just more demand side economics, we can't actually make, we can't

00:07:10.200 increase supply by lowering taxes so that companies can just provide more for less.

00:07:14.720 Instead, we're just going to cut a check to people and then hope the grocery stores don't

00:07:18.580 just, you know, keep their prices exactly the same or even raise them to absorb that extra

00:07:22.940 money that people have.

00:07:24.540 And by the way, uh, the grocery stores, a lot of companies are paying for this stuff

00:07:28.180 because they pay a lot of taxes in Canada.

00:07:31.000 And what they're effectively doing is meaning that people at lower end, uh, at the lower

00:07:36.300 income level are not going to be paying the GST.

00:07:39.040 And now companies are just going to be paying for the debt.

00:07:41.520 The government is adding, uh, on, onto the, like the current, onto our current debt.

00:07:45.960 The deficit is, I believe now, like into the mid eighties at this point, because we just

00:07:50.900 ripped off another two and a half billion for Ukraine.

00:07:53.820 And this thing in the first year, at least is going to be costing about 3.5 billion.

00:07:58.700 And I've heard that the overall cost is around 9.8 billion.

00:08:02.540 It's just more giveaway programs.

00:08:04.420 You're not actually, it's the government spending money to give you some of your own money back.

00:08:09.220 It's stupid economics, but I guess it's good electoral politics.

00:08:12.860 And that's what Mark Carney is trying to do here.

00:08:16.000 Mark Carney is not a good businessman.

00:08:18.760 If he was, he wouldn't have had Brookfield basically cornering the market of subsidy

00:08:23.420 industries.

00:08:24.520 He's not actually good at making things productive.

00:08:27.020 He's good at getting the government to fund the projects that he's involved with.

00:08:31.880 And so now Mark Carney is taking that exact same approach as the prime minister of Canada.

00:08:36.880 Instead of, you know, just making Canadians more productive by deregulating and lowering 0.78

00:08:42.340 taxes.

00:08:43.420 No, no, no.

00:08:43.780 He's going to take money and subsidize Canadians so that he gets to sort of co-sign on anything

00:08:49.040 that happens in the economy.

00:08:50.740 The liberals always like to do this.

00:08:52.660 They don't actually just want to make the economy better.

00:08:55.060 They only want to make things, quote unquote, better when they get to be at the ribbon cutting

00:08:58.960 and pretending that they are involved in all of it.

00:09:01.000 They are literally reducing the amount of prosperity and productivity that we could get in order

00:09:06.460 so that they get to co-sign it.

00:09:08.520 It's so stupid.

00:09:10.280 But now I just want to get to the whole game theory for each of the parties in parliament

00:09:15.640 right now.

00:09:16.300 I don't really care to talk about the PPC.

00:09:18.220 I don't think the PPC is even going to make it to this next snap election.

00:09:21.580 Will they have candidates?

00:09:22.980 Sure.

00:09:23.760 I think they'll start performing like any fringe party, like the Christian Heritage Party

00:09:27.620 or the communists, where they get a couple hundred votes in a riding that they run in.

00:09:31.660 But overall, they don't really do much.

00:09:34.060 So let's start off from the bottom and go up to the liberals in terms of seat count.

00:09:39.300 First, the Green Party.

00:09:41.020 The Green Party only has one seat.

00:09:43.420 And that, of course, is on Vancouver Island for their leader, Elizabeth May.

00:09:48.540 Now, Elizabeth May is not going to be in politics for another decade. 1.00

00:09:52.140 I doubt she wants to be in politics for even another three or four years.

00:09:55.620 So the Green Party is actually incentivized to go into a new election right now to try

00:10:01.340 and boost their seat count from one to maybe three, four.

00:10:05.360 And if they're super lucky, five.

00:10:07.160 They are polling better than they were back in the last election.

00:10:10.240 They only got like one percent of the vote in the last election.

00:10:13.200 And that was enough for Elizabeth May to concentrate that vote in her own riding. 1.00

00:10:17.040 But if they actually end up getting three or four percent or maybe even five,

00:10:20.540 specifically because of the Green Liberal exodus from the Liberal Party,

00:10:25.580 people like Stephen Gilboa and Nate Erskine-Smith leaving won't just push votes to the NDP.

00:10:30.340 They'll push some over to the Greens.

00:10:32.640 The Elizabeth May Greens may be able to grab up a few more seats.

00:10:36.500 So when she permanently retires from politics, the party may be able to survive without her.

00:10:41.980 And then we have the NDP.

00:10:44.520 The NDP currently has seven seats.

00:10:47.060 They are going through a leadership election right now, and they will be getting a bit of an attention boost

00:10:51.760 as soon as they do select a new leader.

00:10:54.920 They are not an official party in politics.

00:10:57.400 You need 14 seats to be an official party.

00:11:00.140 And after this last election, Carney was playing hardball with the NDP

00:11:03.820 and basically gave them nothing in exchange for them supporting liberal legislation.

00:11:09.000 They're effectively in this like hostile relationship where the NDP will sometimes support liberal stuff,

00:11:14.140 but really only for as long as the NDP is preparing for the next election.

00:11:18.880 They're really mad they did not have the official party threshold lowered for them.

00:11:22.800 And so they want an election to be able to get over that threshold again and become a force once again in Parliament.

00:11:29.820 Now, the Bloc Québécois.

00:11:31.440 The Bloc Québécois have actually benefited the most in the polling since the last election.

00:11:36.240 Despite what people are saying, like, oh, man, the Liberals are killing the Conservatives in the polling averages,

00:11:42.400 one, if you take away some of the really scurrilous pollsters from the count,

00:11:46.780 like ECOS, Liaison, and Spark Insight, it's far closer between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

00:11:53.380 In fact, the margin between the Liberals and Conservatives in most polls are closer than the last election result,

00:11:59.240 which would heavily benefit the Conservatives with a more efficient vote.

00:12:02.620 Now, the Bloc, though, they actually have gone up significantly.

00:12:07.420 They had 6% of the national vote in the last election, about 6.5 or so,

00:12:12.460 which obviously is much more when it's all concentrated in Quebec.

00:12:16.680 But now they're around 7%, 8%, or even sometimes 9%, depending on the poll.

00:12:22.140 That would mean that the Bloc Québécois would be eating away at all of the Liberals' Montreal suburban seats.

00:12:28.960 They would start picking up a lot of the rural seats the Liberals are currently holding,

00:12:33.420 as well as not just Montreal suburbs, but maybe even some seats in Montreal proper.

00:12:40.020 Remember, Stephen Gilbeau, who is not going to run in the next election,

00:12:43.780 was actually somebody who won a seat away from the NDP and the Bloc.

00:12:48.760 Stephen Gilbeau's seat currently in downtown Montreal, before him, was as NDP for one term,

00:12:53.820 and then before that, it was Gilles de Sep, the Bloc Québécois leader's seat, for multiple terms.

00:12:59.020 And so the Bloc also wants to have an election before the Parti Québécois, on a provincial level,

00:13:04.600 ends up taking government, because they are way ahead of the pack right now in terms of provincial polling.

00:13:09.820 So the Bloc kind of wants to ride their coattails by going first in a snap election,

00:13:14.540 benefiting on all the PQ activity provincially,

00:13:16.820 because if the PQ win a new provincial election, and then the federal election happens,

00:13:22.360 the excitement of separatist voting is going to be down in Quebec.

00:13:26.120 Now, of course, Pierre Polyev's conservatives want a new election because they want to win government.

00:13:31.900 They want to reverse a lot of bad liberal policies, and they want to put their own policies into place.

00:13:36.960 And Pierre Polyev, although the polls will show he's not very popular right now,

00:13:40.980 his approval rating is pretty much the exact same as it was before the last election.

00:13:47.340 Polyev's party, as well, is polling completely fine.

00:13:51.200 There's all these stupid narratives about how Pierre Polyev's not doing very well in the polls,

00:13:55.100 or, oh, he blew a 15 to 20 point lead in the last election.

00:13:58.680 It's like, well, not really, not really.

00:14:01.320 He never actually fell in the polls.

00:14:03.100 It's more so the liberals went up, in large part because the Bloc Québécois and the NDP went down.

00:14:08.480 I don't need to bring this up on screen, but the great Canadian bagel, Chris, who's a great polling analyst,

00:14:15.280 he proved that, like, no, the conservatives actually did really well in the last election.

00:14:19.360 They only maybe fell two or three points since Justin Trudeau stepped down.

00:14:23.640 It was more so that the liberals went from low 20s to mid 40s.

00:14:27.840 But anyways, that's another story for another day.

00:14:30.340 But now let's talk about Mark Carney and the liberals.

00:14:33.280 Mark Carney is a very different political creature from Justin Trudeau on a temperament basis.

00:14:39.980 On a policy basis, they're actually very similar.

00:14:42.840 And that's not surprising because Carney was the economic advisor to Justin Trudeau.

00:14:49.780 But on a temperament level, Carney hates working with other parties.

00:14:54.120 Justin Trudeau is fine to work with other opposition parties, try and meet in the middle with the NDP,

00:14:59.300 which always meant that the liberals were trending left.

00:15:02.020 And although Carney's basically as left as Trudeau, he just doesn't like having to kowtow to other parties,

00:15:07.700 especially when they only have seven seats or they're the Quebec separatist party.

00:15:11.920 So he wants a new election simply because he doesn't like having to work with the other parties.

00:15:17.540 And so that's why he wants a new election.

00:15:20.120 Plus, he's in this fight right now with Donald Trump and the Americans,

00:15:23.060 which on a certain level does make him look like the patriotic Canadian choice and he wants to cash in very soon.

00:15:30.980 Now, the conservatives, because I am myself a conservative,

00:15:34.500 really need to beat the Carney liberals on all of the affordability issues.

00:15:39.820 They can't, if the liberals say, I'm going to give you a rebate,

00:15:42.760 the conservatives can't say, I'm going to give you a larger rebate.

00:15:45.340 Conservatives in this next election have to completely outdo the conservatives on the policy.

00:15:50.400 If you're going to get especially non-voters to show up,

00:15:53.860 because that is the big demographic I think the conservatives can mine from in this next election,

00:15:58.480 if you want the non-voters to show up, you need to run on a big pro-reform agenda.

00:16:04.980 Taxes can't just go down a little bit.

00:16:06.860 They have to go down by 20% on every bracket, including corporate, and then take a point off the GST.

00:16:13.800 You have to run on massive tax reform.

00:16:15.780 You have to run on some socially conservative policies to get wokeism out of our institutions.

00:16:20.400 You have to run on a tough-on-crime agenda.

00:16:23.760 Not just saying that we're going to raise mandatory minimums by a bit.

00:16:28.360 You raise them by a lot.

00:16:30.040 You crack down on decriminalization programs.

00:16:32.540 You go hard after a lot of gangs in Canada.

00:16:35.800 You actually expand the military.

00:16:37.940 You just do a lot of stuff that is the opposite of what the liberals currently are doing.

00:16:42.740 If you're not doing the opposite, voters are going to have the problem they had in the last April election,

00:16:47.840 where they're squinting, trying to see the difference in economic policy and some other policy areas between the conservatives and the liberals.

00:16:54.200 And now, the liberals were lying about their agenda.

00:16:56.960 They were not even as fiscally responsible as they were indicating in the last election,

00:17:00.600 and they didn't even run that fiscally responsible.

00:17:02.420 But if the conservatives just run a half-step to the right, voters aren't going to show up.

00:17:07.840 Because at the end of the day, elections are about 90% about turnout.

00:17:12.540 Take the people who already like your party and shove them through the doors to the polling stations faster.

00:17:18.360 You want to take your evangelical Christian vote, and you want them to show up 90%, not just 80%.

00:17:24.660 You want your base's turnout to be sky high.

00:17:28.500 And so, by trying to tack to the middle, you, in fact, are actually lowering the amount of votes you are going to get.

00:17:34.560 Because there's no such thing as a middle voter.

00:17:37.320 Voters care about things, or they don't vote.

00:17:40.240 If you are voting, you care about something.

00:17:42.980 You don't want an in-the-middle party that doesn't really have any big issues they're running on.

00:17:48.060 You might not care about foreign policy.

00:17:50.220 You might not care about even fiscal policy.

00:17:52.240 But if you care about crime, you really care about crime.

00:17:55.400 If you care about the economy and affordability, you really care about them.

00:17:58.760 And you're not going to get those people to show up for you running on a 2% tax cut under $50,000.

00:18:06.660 By rate, specifically.

00:18:08.100 Like a 20% tax cut under $50,000 would be like taking 3% or 4% off.

00:18:12.080 But the whole point is, it's got to be big reform, or the non-voters are not going to be activated.

00:18:16.660 And your base may be a little bit sluggish to show up and vote.

00:18:19.660 But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.

00:18:23.940 I do think that there seems to be a good chance of a snap election happening.

00:18:28.100 And I think it's going to be based a lot on if the Liberals can get things shoved through Parliament or not with their new rebate program.

00:18:35.000 And who is going to win the NDP leadership race.

00:18:38.100 The winner of the NDP leadership is going to say a lot about how much the Liberals are going to be damaged by a potentially resurgent NDP.

00:18:45.580 Anyways, with that all being said, thank you guys for watching.

00:18:49.500 Like, share, subscribe.

00:18:50.940 Hit the join button if you want to help the channel out in a big way.

00:18:54.700 And I will see you guys all next time.

00:18:57.200 Thank you.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 26, 2026

SNAP ELECTION： Carney using Trudeau-style handouts to win votes!

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