SNAP ELECTION： Carney using Trudeau-style handouts to win votes!
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Summary
It looks like it's snap election time for Canada, as indicated by Prime Minister Mark Carney at a press conference this morning where he failed to answer a very straightforward question as to whether or not he is considering triggering a spring 2026 election.
Transcript
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as indicated by Prime Minister Mark Carney at a press conference this morning
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where he failed to answer a very straightforward question
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as to whether or not he is considering triggering a spring 2026 election.
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If the answer was no, Mark Carney would have just said no.
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He's never going to let the opposition know that we're going to have a snap election in three months.
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But by not saying no, Carney is absolutely indicating he's thinking about doing it.
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That doesn't mean the snap election will happen in the spring,
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but I would ballpark it at this point as there being an 80% chance of an election occurring sometime in 2026.
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In fact, every single party in Parliament right now is incentivized to go to the polls.
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And so I'm going to talk about the motivations of the different parties a little bit later in this video.
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But first, I want to start off with Carney's absolutely terrible answer to the question,
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as well as the overall press conference, which is obviously effectively an election announcement.
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Mark Carney is going to start putting out Trudeau-style giveaway programs
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to try and bring Canadians over to the Liberal Party if a snap election occurs.
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But before I get into it, I just want to remind you guys,
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if you like the channel, make sure to leave a like on this video.
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Leave a comment about what you think about all this stuff,
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especially whether or not you think a snap election is going to occur.
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But now let's jump into this clip from Mark Carney, not answering this question.
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Good morning, Prime Minister McKenzie Grape, Global News.
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Are you considering calling a snap election this spring?
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What we're focused on is solutions for Canadians.
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So today's announcement, we'll be tabling legislations soon, very soon.
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We would love and we think it's very important to have collaboration
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so we can move that quickly through Parliament.
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So particularly the one-time bonus gets into people's bank accounts as quickly as possible.
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This is effectively like Justin Trudeau's carbon tax scheme.
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They're going to be giving out a GST rebate on groceries to people
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in order so that they are incentivized to vote for the Liberals so the benefit does not go away.
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Now, we could just lower taxes, but instead we have this rebate program.
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But what you'll notice here at the very beginning is that that was a pretty clear question.
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Are you going to have a spring election or not?
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Good morning, Prime Minister McKenzie Grape, Global News.
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Are you considering calling a snap election this spring?
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The previous answer did not help clarify anything because the previous question that that answer was to
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So Carney is absolutely thinking about doing it.
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And I want to go into what he's doing here at the press conference overall.
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He is trying to basically create a referendum on whether or not you want to keep your benefits
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because the Conservatives are going to take away your benefits.
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Now, I would hope that the Conservatives would actually get rid of a lot of these stupid programs
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the Liberals are rolling out, these stupid rebates, because we shouldn't have rebates.
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And so what Mark Carney is trying to do right now is put up as many landmines as possible.
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So here is another question that he got about this whole rebate program, which is apparently
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going to, you know, a bunch of the money that is going to, is like being put towards it right now.
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And it's going to apparently, I think, give people 50% of their GST money back on groceries.
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So like a family of four, as, you know, quoted in Liberal Propaganda, they get like $790 or
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Okay, it's still nickel and diming people when really people's financial problems go far beyond
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Most people are trying to dodge the GST as much as they can already by just buying cheaper
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So this is really like, I don't know, a fairly pathetic type of a thing to be announcing.
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As a guy who's like, you know, the chair of Brookfield and the former governor of the Bank
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of Canada in England, just little stupid giveaway programs that Justin Trudeau was known for.
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Benefit your, the GST credit, how much is this benefit actually going to cost overall, like
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And as well, what's to stop grocery retailers from raising their prices to just absorb this
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Okay, so I'll answer both legs of that, obviously.
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And that's a good question, because the problem is, this GST cut is not actually this temporary
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It is simply deferring a GST payment that would usually be on the consumer to put forward
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Because, you know, by saying that a grocery store has to put 5% more on every item in order
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to pay the GST off, if you remove it, is that enough of a removal taking 2.5% off the price
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Is that really going to incentivize grocery stores to overall lower their prices?
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Because many of the grocery stores are hurting so bad right now, just as all businesses are
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They're probably just going to absorb this into their profit margin in order to make themselves
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This would actually be a good program if you just cut taxes.
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They want you to be more reliant on government.
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In terms of the numbers, and I'm sorry, this is a test.
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You're testing me in front of my minister, who knows it down to the cent.
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But the cost the first year is a little over $3 billion, $3.1 billion.
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And the reason for that is this payment, the boost is the way I referred to it, which makes
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up for if you had overall levels of inflation and then food price inflation going like that
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It makes up for the difference between those two lines.
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Then in the subsequent four years, there's the 25% increase in the GST credit.
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So but in effect, it goes $3.1, $1.3 billion, and then about $1.8 billion for those last three
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Okay, there's a timing issue with we can provide.
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Uh, basically, what this is indicating is this is just a chunk of change for the government,
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they're going to send out checks to people, they want them to vote for them.
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Uh, and it's basically just more demand side economics, we can't actually make, we can't
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increase supply by lowering taxes so that companies can just provide more for less.
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Instead, we're just going to cut a check to people and then hope the grocery stores don't
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just, you know, keep their prices exactly the same or even raise them to absorb that extra
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And by the way, uh, the grocery stores, a lot of companies are paying for this stuff
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And what they're effectively doing is meaning that people at lower end, uh, at the lower
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income level are not going to be paying the GST.
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And now companies are just going to be paying for the debt.
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The government is adding, uh, on, onto the, like the current, onto our current debt.
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The deficit is, I believe now, like into the mid eighties at this point, because we just
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ripped off another two and a half billion for Ukraine.
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And this thing in the first year, at least is going to be costing about 3.5 billion.
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And I've heard that the overall cost is around 9.8 billion.
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You're not actually, it's the government spending money to give you some of your own money back.
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It's stupid economics, but I guess it's good electoral politics.
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And that's what Mark Carney is trying to do here.
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If he was, he wouldn't have had Brookfield basically cornering the market of subsidy
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He's not actually good at making things productive.
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He's good at getting the government to fund the projects that he's involved with.
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And so now Mark Carney is taking that exact same approach as the prime minister of Canada.
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Instead of, you know, just making Canadians more productive by deregulating and lowering
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He's going to take money and subsidize Canadians so that he gets to sort of co-sign on anything
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They don't actually just want to make the economy better.
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They only want to make things, quote unquote, better when they get to be at the ribbon cutting
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and pretending that they are involved in all of it.
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They are literally reducing the amount of prosperity and productivity that we could get in order
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But now I just want to get to the whole game theory for each of the parties in parliament
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I don't think the PPC is even going to make it to this next snap election.
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I think they'll start performing like any fringe party, like the Christian Heritage Party
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or the communists, where they get a couple hundred votes in a riding that they run in.
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So let's start off from the bottom and go up to the liberals in terms of seat count.
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And that, of course, is on Vancouver Island for their leader, Elizabeth May.
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Now, Elizabeth May is not going to be in politics for another decade.
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I doubt she wants to be in politics for even another three or four years.
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So the Green Party is actually incentivized to go into a new election right now to try
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and boost their seat count from one to maybe three, four.
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They are polling better than they were back in the last election.
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They only got like one percent of the vote in the last election.
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And that was enough for Elizabeth May to concentrate that vote in her own riding.
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But if they actually end up getting three or four percent or maybe even five,
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specifically because of the Green Liberal exodus from the Liberal Party,
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people like Stephen Gilboa and Nate Erskine-Smith leaving won't just push votes to the NDP.
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The Elizabeth May Greens may be able to grab up a few more seats.
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So when she permanently retires from politics, the party may be able to survive without her.
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They are going through a leadership election right now, and they will be getting a bit of an attention boost
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And after this last election, Carney was playing hardball with the NDP
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and basically gave them nothing in exchange for them supporting liberal legislation.
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They're effectively in this like hostile relationship where the NDP will sometimes support liberal stuff,
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but really only for as long as the NDP is preparing for the next election.
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They're really mad they did not have the official party threshold lowered for them.
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And so they want an election to be able to get over that threshold again and become a force once again in Parliament.
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The Bloc Québécois have actually benefited the most in the polling since the last election.
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Despite what people are saying, like, oh, man, the Liberals are killing the Conservatives in the polling averages,
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one, if you take away some of the really scurrilous pollsters from the count,
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like ECOS, Liaison, and Spark Insight, it's far closer between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
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In fact, the margin between the Liberals and Conservatives in most polls are closer than the last election result,
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which would heavily benefit the Conservatives with a more efficient vote.
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Now, the Bloc, though, they actually have gone up significantly.
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They had 6% of the national vote in the last election, about 6.5 or so,
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which obviously is much more when it's all concentrated in Quebec.
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But now they're around 7%, 8%, or even sometimes 9%, depending on the poll.
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That would mean that the Bloc Québécois would be eating away at all of the Liberals' Montreal suburban seats.
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They would start picking up a lot of the rural seats the Liberals are currently holding,
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as well as not just Montreal suburbs, but maybe even some seats in Montreal proper.
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Remember, Stephen Gilbeau, who is not going to run in the next election,
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was actually somebody who won a seat away from the NDP and the Bloc.
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Stephen Gilbeau's seat currently in downtown Montreal, before him, was as NDP for one term,
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and then before that, it was Gilles de Sep, the Bloc Québécois leader's seat, for multiple terms.
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And so the Bloc also wants to have an election before the Parti Québécois, on a provincial level,
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ends up taking government, because they are way ahead of the pack right now in terms of provincial polling.
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So the Bloc kind of wants to ride their coattails by going first in a snap election,
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benefiting on all the PQ activity provincially,
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because if the PQ win a new provincial election, and then the federal election happens,
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the excitement of separatist voting is going to be down in Quebec.
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Now, of course, Pierre Polyev's conservatives want a new election because they want to win government.
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They want to reverse a lot of bad liberal policies, and they want to put their own policies into place.
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And Pierre Polyev, although the polls will show he's not very popular right now,
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his approval rating is pretty much the exact same as it was before the last election.
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Polyev's party, as well, is polling completely fine.
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There's all these stupid narratives about how Pierre Polyev's not doing very well in the polls,
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or, oh, he blew a 15 to 20 point lead in the last election.
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It's more so the liberals went up, in large part because the Bloc Québécois and the NDP went down.
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I don't need to bring this up on screen, but the great Canadian bagel, Chris, who's a great polling analyst,
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he proved that, like, no, the conservatives actually did really well in the last election.
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They only maybe fell two or three points since Justin Trudeau stepped down.
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It was more so that the liberals went from low 20s to mid 40s.
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But anyways, that's another story for another day.
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But now let's talk about Mark Carney and the liberals.
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Mark Carney is a very different political creature from Justin Trudeau on a temperament basis.
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On a policy basis, they're actually very similar.
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And that's not surprising because Carney was the economic advisor to Justin Trudeau.
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But on a temperament level, Carney hates working with other parties.
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Justin Trudeau is fine to work with other opposition parties, try and meet in the middle with the NDP,
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which always meant that the liberals were trending left.
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And although Carney's basically as left as Trudeau, he just doesn't like having to kowtow to other parties,
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especially when they only have seven seats or they're the Quebec separatist party.
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So he wants a new election simply because he doesn't like having to work with the other parties.
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Plus, he's in this fight right now with Donald Trump and the Americans,
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which on a certain level does make him look like the patriotic Canadian choice and he wants to cash in very soon.
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Now, the conservatives, because I am myself a conservative,
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really need to beat the Carney liberals on all of the affordability issues.
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They can't, if the liberals say, I'm going to give you a rebate,
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the conservatives can't say, I'm going to give you a larger rebate.
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Conservatives in this next election have to completely outdo the conservatives on the policy.
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If you're going to get especially non-voters to show up,
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because that is the big demographic I think the conservatives can mine from in this next election,
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if you want the non-voters to show up, you need to run on a big pro-reform agenda.
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They have to go down by 20% on every bracket, including corporate, and then take a point off the GST.
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You have to run on some socially conservative policies to get wokeism out of our institutions.
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Not just saying that we're going to raise mandatory minimums by a bit.
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You just do a lot of stuff that is the opposite of what the liberals currently are doing.
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If you're not doing the opposite, voters are going to have the problem they had in the last April election,
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where they're squinting, trying to see the difference in economic policy and some other policy areas between the conservatives and the liberals.
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And now, the liberals were lying about their agenda.
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They were not even as fiscally responsible as they were indicating in the last election,
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and they didn't even run that fiscally responsible.
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But if the conservatives just run a half-step to the right, voters aren't going to show up.
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Because at the end of the day, elections are about 90% about turnout.
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Take the people who already like your party and shove them through the doors to the polling stations faster.
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You want to take your evangelical Christian vote, and you want them to show up 90%, not just 80%.
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And so, by trying to tack to the middle, you, in fact, are actually lowering the amount of votes you are going to get.
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Because there's no such thing as a middle voter.
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You don't want an in-the-middle party that doesn't really have any big issues they're running on.
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But if you care about crime, you really care about crime.
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If you care about the economy and affordability, you really care about them.
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And you're not going to get those people to show up for you running on a 2% tax cut under $50,000.
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Like a 20% tax cut under $50,000 would be like taking 3% or 4% off.
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But the whole point is, it's got to be big reform, or the non-voters are not going to be activated.
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And your base may be a little bit sluggish to show up and vote.
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But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
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I do think that there seems to be a good chance of a snap election happening.
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And I think it's going to be based a lot on if the Liberals can get things shoved through Parliament or not with their new rebate program.
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And who is going to win the NDP leadership race.
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The winner of the NDP leadership is going to say a lot about how much the Liberals are going to be damaged by a potentially resurgent NDP.
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Anyways, with that all being said, thank you guys for watching.
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