The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 30, 2025


The Good, Bad and Ugly results of Canada's federal election

Topics
micro-cultures of ridings
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Michael Guglielin Pierre Pauly Michelle Ferreri Daniel Boardman Jagmeet Singh Donald Trump Carleton Fanjoy Polyev Surrey White Rock Markham Unionville Francisco Soberra Nanaimo Ladysmith Heather McPherson Kitchener Centre London Fanshawe Carrie Lynn Finley Bloc Québécois Erin O'Toole Aurora Oak Ridges and 11 more
Watching Canada's chaotic election live! Will NDP MPs defect to Liberals to give Carney a majority？

Episode Stats


Length

17 minutes

Words per minute

185.09

Word count

3,255

Sentence count

179

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, I discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly results of the election, and how to move forward from them. I also talk about how to do better in the future, and what to look out for in the next election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Now you and I probably didn't like the election results that came out yesterday in Canada's federal election, but there is no such thing as dooming or becoming depressive, there is only doing better.
00:00:15.100 And I think that I want to, from this point on, basically just start orienting the channel towards how do you do better and how do you win next time, because there was actually a lot of good that happened in this election, obviously a lot of bad and some very ugly results out there, and today in this video I'm going to start off with a bit of a nutshell of the entire election, what was some of the good, what was some of the bad, and what was the ugly.
00:00:40.400 We will start off with the latter. The ugly results of this election were obviously people like Conservative Party leader Pierre Pauly of losing his seat in Carleton.
00:00:51.280 There was also people like Michelle Ferreri in Peterborough and other veteran Conservatives who are great MPs, and I think it was just the ridings that they were running in that were just not going to let them be re-elected no matter what they did on the ground.
00:01:03.520 I can say I was wrong about Pierre Pauly of losing Carleton, as were many Conservatives out there. I'd even been talking to people on the ground in Carleton who were concerned about Pauly of losing, but even their reports were that the suburbs were 50-50.
00:01:19.920 And I'm thinking, well, if the suburbs are 50-50 and all the acreages are probably still very Conservative, I assume that Pauly of has a good chance of pulling it out.
00:01:27.900 He's pulled out close elections within 10 points since 2004, so why would it change now?
00:01:33.480 And what ended up happening in Carleton, if you actually go and look at the specific results in that riding, is that the NDP 100% collapsed.
00:01:41.480 I was thinking that it's kind of absurd for the Liberal to suck up more than half the NDP vote, so it might be difficult for Fanjoy to overcome Pierre Pauly of's lead of 10% that he's had in previous elections.
00:01:53.660 But quite literally, the NDP collapsed from around 9.8% or 10% all the way down to like 1.3%.
00:02:02.160 Pretty much anyone who voted NDP last time voted Liberal this time, and then Fanjoy probably by grabbing up some middle-class anti-Trump voters was able to overcome a pure Pauly of and beat him by a few points.
00:02:15.440 That's obviously very tragic, and that is going to have major effects in Conservative world for the next few months, seeing what's going to happen with the leader of the Conservative Party not actually having a seat, whether or not a Conservative MP is going to give up their seat so he can continue in Parliament, if there's going to be a leadership race.
00:02:34.240 At this point, I just really don't know, so we will be revisiting that in the future.
00:02:38.460 I'll probably start putting together more edited content that kind of goes over the stuff more in detail, considering that we are kind of outside of the horse race politics of the election.
00:02:50.040 So those were the ugly results.
00:02:52.260 People like Pauly of losing, Michelle Ferreri, a great MP, Carolyn Finley down in Surrey White Rock losing, South Surrey White Rock.
00:03:01.200 A lot of great candidates, a lot of great incumbents ended up losing.
00:03:04.240 Rick Perkins out in, I forget the name of the riding, I was talking about it a lot yesterday on stream, but forgive me, but he lost his seat out in Nova Scotia.
00:03:13.940 But then, oddly enough, Conservatives ended up picking up a lot of seats, so we're now transitioning to the good here.
00:03:20.280 Conservatives ended up picking up a lot of seats in places that they hadn't won in a very long time and winning pretty decisive victories.
00:03:27.980 So this is the riding of Vaughn Woodbridge.
00:03:32.220 The Conservative, Michael Guglielin, I cannot pronounce people's last names, I'm sorry, I'm just going to call him Michael.
00:03:39.180 Michael, the candidate for the Conservative Party, won that riding with 59.9% of the vote, and that is with all the polls counted.
00:03:47.440 There was no more votes left to count in that riding.
00:03:49.560 And the Liberal was ousted, who only got 38.1% of the vote.
00:03:54.000 And that was, in fact, the incumbent, not some new guy who took over the riding, who maybe people didn't connect with very well or didn't like.
00:04:00.320 This guy had been the candidate, I believe, for a few terms.
00:04:04.140 This is what the riding's results were back in 2021.
00:04:09.100 Francisco Soberra won with 45.98% of the vote, and the Conservative lost with 40.35% of the vote.
00:04:19.600 So this is a major upset for the Conservatives.
00:04:22.940 Look, the Conservative last time gets 40.35%, and this time they win with 59.9% of the vote, effectively 60%.
00:04:32.140 That, between the Liberal and the Conservative, is a 30-point swing in the vote.
00:04:38.160 Because what has happened in this election is it's actually gotten far less East versus West.
00:04:44.800 It has become working-class neighbourhoods.
00:04:47.820 It has become sort of like a lot of minority voters versus voters who are living in metropolitan, suburban areas.
00:04:57.780 There are a lot of people who ended up voting Liberal because of what this chart says.
00:05:01.860 They were just voting against Trump.
00:05:04.040 Now, they still won if you get the votes you win, obviously.
00:05:07.660 Well, look at this chart that says the most important factor is when deciding your vote.
00:05:11.560 So, for reducing your cost of living, that was a very important vote for people between the ages of 18, 29, 30, and 44, and 45, and 59,
00:05:20.820 with it trailing as an issue for people who are 60 and over.
00:05:24.120 But for voters who are 60 and over, and obviously if you're in that age bracket watching my channel, you probably did vote Conservative.
00:05:30.300 But for those voters, they mainly cared about dealing with Donald Trump.
00:05:35.980 That was an issue that 50% of people in that bracket cared about.
00:05:40.580 When you go down to making housing more affordable, people in the age brackets of 18 and 29 and 30 and 44 marked that as one of their top issues around 28% of the time.
00:05:51.200 Obviously, reducing your cost of living was their main issue.
00:05:54.360 But when you go to voters 60 and over, making housing more affordable drops below 10% of things that they chose as a top issue.
00:06:03.000 And then you go to things like improving Canada's health care system.
00:06:06.520 That's where 60 and over voters cared a little bit more. 0.83
00:06:08.880 But on other things about the economy, that was just not a concern.
00:06:12.680 And this is not to blame anyone for, oh my goodness, you voted wrong.
00:06:17.020 People vote how they vote.
00:06:18.320 And I think that is always the good way of actually viewing politics.
00:06:22.100 People vote how they vote.
00:06:23.440 And you just have to adapt to how they're voting in order to win next time.
00:06:27.440 And that doesn't mean becoming Aaron O'Toole where all you do is just tack yourself to the middle of the road and you become inoffensive to everybody.
00:06:34.740 What you need to do is find the issues that you actually believe in, because never run on something you don't believe in.
00:06:40.700 And you need to find a way of speaking on those issues to voters who maybe don't think that that's their key issue.
00:06:47.580 That is what we need to do in the next election.
00:06:50.520 But I also want to bring this up on screen as well.
00:06:53.860 This is just the Globe and Mail results page.
00:06:56.480 And it's just showing southwestern Ontario right now.
00:06:59.300 Because I believe I was actually pretty straight on when it came to where the conservatives were going to be making pickups.
00:07:06.080 The main reason why the liberals were still able to secure a minority, which is the bad in this video, that the liberals are still going to hold on to their minority.
00:07:14.540 The conservatives picked up seats in places where I had heard people saying it's absurd for them to pick up seats, like Windsor West and Windsor Tecumseh Lakeshore.
00:07:22.440 They ended up winning an actual London riding, London Fanshawe here, because of a vote split between the liberals and the NDP.
00:07:30.320 Although they still won 5,900 votes as their margin, which is not a super split vote.
00:07:35.720 They ended up actually winning Kitchener Centre from the Greens.
00:07:39.900 They ended up winning Kitchener South Hesper.
00:07:41.980 All of these working class ridings went super hardcore conservative.
00:07:45.800 And at a later date, I want to bring up the maps and start comparing them, because you'll see where a lot of the conservative strength now lies.
00:07:54.380 And these are not ridings that they're winning by small rates.
00:07:57.380 These are ridings being won with decisive amounts of people voting conservative.
00:08:03.340 York Centre, Roman Baber beat Yahara Sachs with 5,700 votes as the margin.
00:08:08.360 You had Markham Unionville going conservative.
00:08:11.480 You had Richmond Hill South.
00:08:13.280 You had Aurora Ridges, Richmond Hill.
00:08:15.880 All these ridings, especially with more heavy Chinese populations, are going conservative.
00:08:21.100 Because on the issues like crime and drugs, the conservatives are doing really, really well on.
00:08:27.980 But this election, I would almost say, is a short circuit election.
00:08:31.360 It was fast.
00:08:32.560 The liberals were able to swap out a leader.
00:08:33.960 And Donald Trump was definitely dominating many voters' minds when it came to how they were planning on voting.
00:08:40.580 What were their main priorities when they were considering the candidates.
00:08:44.340 But this is something that's actually been pretty much, throughout the country, a result trend.
00:08:50.260 More working class areas went very conservative, even if the liberals held them previously.
00:08:55.600 Whereas more, what I would call metropolitan suburban areas, ended up going liberal.
00:09:00.520 So the riding of confederation in Calgary actually ended up going liberal, even though it was conservative last time.
00:09:07.320 But the liberal, George Chahal, up in the northeast running in McKnight, who was previously in Skyview, ended up going blue.
00:09:14.260 He ended up getting kicked out of office.
00:09:16.440 That happened a lot of different places.
00:09:18.420 It was the micro-cultures of the different ridings that made up a big difference.
00:09:23.640 Where in previous elections, there was more of that idea that we're the East, we vote liberal out here.
00:09:28.760 And that we're the West, we vote blue out here.
00:09:31.580 And so that is actually something that's been completely shaken up in this election.
00:09:36.060 Newfoundland became very close between the liberals and conservatives.
00:09:39.880 Conservatives only having one seat in Newfoundland in the last election.
00:09:43.280 They actually gained one, and one is on the absolute cusp of flipping, because working-class fishermen ended up splitting very hard towards the conservatives.
00:09:54.020 Same thing on Vancouver Island.
00:09:55.640 It used to just be red and orange, and now it actually has quite a bit of blue on it.
00:09:59.980 Nanaimo Ladysmith went blue because it's a working-class riding, and those people want to change. 1.00
00:10:06.280 Whereas if you go to places where it's a higher percentage of government employees, higher percentage of retired voters, then they were voting for protecting, basically, government budgets, as well as defending the country against Trump.
00:10:19.800 And perfectly, I guess, legitimate reason to vote.
00:10:23.420 I just don't think that those votes, I think those votes were kind of misplaced in terms of the result that you wanted.
00:10:29.240 Now, let's go over what basically the bad is, and that is, of course, the liberals having won the election.
00:10:36.580 I just want to show you the overall seat and vote count at the moment currently as things stand, although there is about eight or ten riding super close that might end up flipping back and forth as votes are counted and as recounts are done.
00:10:48.740 It's not going to change the macro result, but it might change how big the liberal minority is.
00:10:53.600 The liberals, out of 343 seats, 169.
00:10:57.980 Conservatives, 144, which is actually substantial improvement for the conservatives.
00:11:01.840 They only won 119 last time.
00:11:04.080 Bloc Québécois got 22, which is a fall of 11.
00:11:07.300 New Democrats got seven.
00:11:09.020 And the Green Party, which I'm not even going to scroll over to mention, they got their one with Elizabeth May and Saanich in the Gulf Islands.
00:11:16.000 The big thing that happened here for the conservatives is that they basically had the NDP and the bloc collapse on them.
00:11:22.520 So the conservatives have a great result, but the liberals also had a fantastic result because the new Democrats under the leadership of Jagmeet Singh, who, by the way, great result in this election, is now out of office.
00:11:34.360 But because he was weak, a lot of NDP voters concluded, rightfully so, what's the point of voting NDP if I'm going to get the liberals anyways by electing NDP MPs, and it's more efficient just to throw your votes behind the liberals?
00:11:48.180 So whoever becomes the NDP leader in this next year is actually going to be very key.
00:11:54.500 I'm not sure if they're going to go outside of their caucus because they only have seven people now, or they're going to pick someone like Heather McPherson. 0.82
00:11:59.980 Since, like, if they pick the right person, it actually could hurt the liberals, it could end up damaging them by having someone who's more willing to be oppositional.
00:12:10.280 Because Jagmeet Singh, again, by being so complicit, I guess, by bear-hugging the Trudeau liberal government, ended up taking off a lot of those working class voters that the NDP relied on.
00:12:23.000 And that's why we had places like Vaughn-Woodbridge go so blue. That's why the conservatives, in fact, won a Hamilton riding, but they hadn't won in quite a while.
00:12:32.380 Because all of those guys who work on construction sites or other communities that are heavily involved in construction and kind of hands-on work who would vote NDP ended up swinging over to the blue.
00:12:43.640 But then in other areas where it was more of a liberal NDP riding and it's a little bit more metropolitan suburban, the NDP ended up benefiting the liberals and prevented conservative victories.
00:12:54.960 And then again, there was places like Peterborough and Carleton, who I think the micro-riding culture tends to be that when NDP voters end up defecting to another party,
00:13:05.880 those people started going towards the liberals because the culture in those ridings is more, you know, pro-government, I guess what you would say.
00:13:14.000 It's more kind of anti-Trump. Not that there's like super pro-Trump ridings in Canada, but the idea was that was a motivating factor.
00:13:21.180 It's more retired in the area. It's more patrician, I guess the culture is, that they didn't want the hard-nosed conservatives to come in and they're going to vote against Trump by voting liberal.
00:13:32.840 And again, it can be frustrating, but there is no such thing as dooming. There is no such thing as being negative.
00:13:40.240 There is only doing better next time, which the conservatives can. They gained like 30 seats here or about like 27 seats.
00:13:47.820 Not a bad result. The liberals gained like five seats. They only netted an extra five seats here.
00:13:53.280 So they still failed to win and now they're going to have to rely on the NDP.
00:13:56.820 And from what Don Davies is saying, who is an NDP MP in Vancouver, it looks like the NDP, because they actually lost party status from dropping below 10 seats,
00:14:06.940 is going to try and negotiate with the liberals to lower the threshold for what you need parties, how many seats you need party status.
00:14:13.780 So with seven seats, the NDP actually might get party status to keep their extra parliamentary budget safe,
00:14:22.260 because you get a little bit extra money in your parliamentary caucus budget if you actually are an official party.
00:14:27.720 So maybe the liberals are going to drop down the official party line all the way down to seven.
00:14:32.720 But that's all going to be stuff that's going to be shaken out as time goes on here.
00:14:37.680 I do just want to tell you the exact vote count right here that you probably already saw earlier if you were eagle-eyed.
00:14:43.720 So liberals got 43.7% of the vote, conservatives got 41.3, bloc got 6.3, NDP embarrassingly actually got fewer votes than the bloc with 63% of the votes,
00:14:56.400 or they got a little bit more, but still.
00:14:58.460 And then the greens got 1.3.
00:15:00.720 By the way, the PPC got 0.7% of the vote, which in fact in my mind proves that Maxime Bernier going on a bunch of American podcasts
00:15:09.620 proved that the American podcasts really don't work.
00:15:12.620 Going on to American podcasts when you're running for election in Canada doesn't make people take another look at you.
00:15:18.940 You in fact probably want to do more Canadian media, and if Polyev did one good thing in the election,
00:15:23.560 it was not doing the American podcast circuit.
00:15:26.000 That was a bad idea.
00:15:27.500 But we can talk about more of a post-mortem video in the future,
00:15:31.660 where the conservatives maybe need to improve, where they went wrong,
00:15:34.760 what's going to happen with Polyev and the conservative leadership.
00:15:38.120 But overall, it's just a weird election.
00:15:40.380 We are basically where we were back in 2021, which is where we were back in 2019.
00:15:47.280 Nothing ever changes in Canada, apparently.
00:15:49.600 Very unfortunate, but whatever.
00:15:52.520 I'm still here, and I'm still going to be making videos.
00:15:55.100 I might not be putting out as many in the future,
00:15:58.040 but it's not like I'm going to start skipping days and having nothing for weeks.
00:16:01.880 What it's going to be is because obviously people are less jazzed up about election time.
00:16:05.940 I can sit back and do 20-minute breakdowns on specific topics I find interesting in Canadian electoral politics,
00:16:12.620 or even provincial issues that are going to now rise to the top as federal politics sort of fades into the background.
00:16:19.500 Because everything kind of feels a little bit more normal the year after a government settles in.
00:16:24.080 Even if they start doing bad things, a lot of Canadians are not really going to notice one way or the other for a good nine months now.
00:16:31.060 So, yeah, that's it for me today, guys.
00:16:34.680 Thank you for watching.
00:16:35.780 Thank you for tuning into the stream yesterday.
00:16:37.700 That was a good part of the election.
00:16:39.560 You guys seem to have broken every record I could possibly ever set for myself for an election livestream.
00:16:46.360 We had, at one point, 8,500 people watching me and Daniel Boardman live break down the election.
00:16:53.400 I know people were, like, perturbed.
00:16:54.680 Like, who is Daniel?
00:16:55.560 Why is he here?
00:16:56.160 He built a very specific role, making sure I wasn't going to go insane only talking to myself for six and a half hours.
00:17:04.320 But that was great.
00:17:05.240 Had tons of people chatting, sending in super chats to support the channel.
00:17:08.480 That was amazing, guys.
00:17:09.520 Thank you.
00:17:10.300 I'm definitely going to be using that, what you guys sent in for money, to invest in the channel, upgrade things, buy better cameras, buy better tripods.
00:17:18.860 I really want a big whiteboard that I'm going to go get for the corner of the room so I can have a second camera setup.
00:17:24.200 So on other days, I can, like, whip out a marker and start drawing up little things I want to talk about.
00:17:30.300 So with that being said, thanks for watching, and I'll see you guys later.