In this episode, I discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly results of the election, and how to move forward from them. I also talk about how to do better in the future, and what to look out for in the next election.
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Now you and I probably didn't like the election results that came out yesterday in Canada's federal election, but there is no such thing as dooming or becoming depressive, there is only doing better.
00:00:15.100And I think that I want to, from this point on, basically just start orienting the channel towards how do you do better and how do you win next time, because there was actually a lot of good that happened in this election, obviously a lot of bad and some very ugly results out there, and today in this video I'm going to start off with a bit of a nutshell of the entire election, what was some of the good, what was some of the bad, and what was the ugly.
00:00:40.400We will start off with the latter. The ugly results of this election were obviously people like Conservative Party leader Pierre Pauly of losing his seat in Carleton.
00:00:51.280There was also people like Michelle Ferreri in Peterborough and other veteran Conservatives who are great MPs, and I think it was just the ridings that they were running in that were just not going to let them be re-elected no matter what they did on the ground.
00:01:03.520I can say I was wrong about Pierre Pauly of losing Carleton, as were many Conservatives out there. I'd even been talking to people on the ground in Carleton who were concerned about Pauly of losing, but even their reports were that the suburbs were 50-50.
00:01:19.920And I'm thinking, well, if the suburbs are 50-50 and all the acreages are probably still very Conservative, I assume that Pauly of has a good chance of pulling it out.
00:01:27.900He's pulled out close elections within 10 points since 2004, so why would it change now?
00:01:33.480And what ended up happening in Carleton, if you actually go and look at the specific results in that riding, is that the NDP 100% collapsed.
00:01:41.480I was thinking that it's kind of absurd for the Liberal to suck up more than half the NDP vote, so it might be difficult for Fanjoy to overcome Pierre Pauly of's lead of 10% that he's had in previous elections.
00:01:53.660But quite literally, the NDP collapsed from around 9.8% or 10% all the way down to like 1.3%.
00:02:02.160Pretty much anyone who voted NDP last time voted Liberal this time, and then Fanjoy probably by grabbing up some middle-class anti-Trump voters was able to overcome a pure Pauly of and beat him by a few points.
00:02:15.440That's obviously very tragic, and that is going to have major effects in Conservative world for the next few months, seeing what's going to happen with the leader of the Conservative Party not actually having a seat, whether or not a Conservative MP is going to give up their seat so he can continue in Parliament, if there's going to be a leadership race.
00:02:34.240At this point, I just really don't know, so we will be revisiting that in the future.
00:02:38.460I'll probably start putting together more edited content that kind of goes over the stuff more in detail, considering that we are kind of outside of the horse race politics of the election.
00:02:52.260People like Pauly of losing, Michelle Ferreri, a great MP, Carolyn Finley down in Surrey White Rock losing, South Surrey White Rock.
00:03:01.200A lot of great candidates, a lot of great incumbents ended up losing.
00:03:04.240Rick Perkins out in, I forget the name of the riding, I was talking about it a lot yesterday on stream, but forgive me, but he lost his seat out in Nova Scotia.
00:03:13.940But then, oddly enough, Conservatives ended up picking up a lot of seats, so we're now transitioning to the good here.
00:03:20.280Conservatives ended up picking up a lot of seats in places that they hadn't won in a very long time and winning pretty decisive victories.
00:03:27.980So this is the riding of Vaughn Woodbridge.
00:03:32.220The Conservative, Michael Guglielin, I cannot pronounce people's last names, I'm sorry, I'm just going to call him Michael.
00:03:39.180Michael, the candidate for the Conservative Party, won that riding with 59.9% of the vote, and that is with all the polls counted.
00:03:47.440There was no more votes left to count in that riding.
00:03:49.560And the Liberal was ousted, who only got 38.1% of the vote.
00:03:54.000And that was, in fact, the incumbent, not some new guy who took over the riding, who maybe people didn't connect with very well or didn't like.
00:04:00.320This guy had been the candidate, I believe, for a few terms.
00:04:04.140This is what the riding's results were back in 2021.
00:04:09.100Francisco Soberra won with 45.98% of the vote, and the Conservative lost with 40.35% of the vote.
00:04:19.600So this is a major upset for the Conservatives.
00:04:22.940Look, the Conservative last time gets 40.35%, and this time they win with 59.9% of the vote, effectively 60%.
00:04:32.140That, between the Liberal and the Conservative, is a 30-point swing in the vote.
00:04:38.160Because what has happened in this election is it's actually gotten far less East versus West.
00:04:44.800It has become working-class neighbourhoods.
00:04:47.820It has become sort of like a lot of minority voters versus voters who are living in metropolitan, suburban areas.
00:04:57.780There are a lot of people who ended up voting Liberal because of what this chart says.
00:05:04.040Now, they still won if you get the votes you win, obviously.
00:05:07.660Well, look at this chart that says the most important factor is when deciding your vote.
00:05:11.560So, for reducing your cost of living, that was a very important vote for people between the ages of 18, 29, 30, and 44, and 45, and 59,
00:05:20.820with it trailing as an issue for people who are 60 and over.
00:05:24.120But for voters who are 60 and over, and obviously if you're in that age bracket watching my channel, you probably did vote Conservative.
00:05:30.300But for those voters, they mainly cared about dealing with Donald Trump.
00:05:35.980That was an issue that 50% of people in that bracket cared about.
00:05:40.580When you go down to making housing more affordable, people in the age brackets of 18 and 29 and 30 and 44 marked that as one of their top issues around 28% of the time.
00:05:51.200Obviously, reducing your cost of living was their main issue.
00:05:54.360But when you go to voters 60 and over, making housing more affordable drops below 10% of things that they chose as a top issue.
00:06:03.000And then you go to things like improving Canada's health care system.
00:06:06.520That's where 60 and over voters cared a little bit more.
00:06:08.880But on other things about the economy, that was just not a concern.
00:06:12.680And this is not to blame anyone for, oh my goodness, you voted wrong.
00:06:23.440And you just have to adapt to how they're voting in order to win next time.
00:06:27.440And that doesn't mean becoming Aaron O'Toole where all you do is just tack yourself to the middle of the road and you become inoffensive to everybody.
00:06:34.740What you need to do is find the issues that you actually believe in, because never run on something you don't believe in.
00:06:40.700And you need to find a way of speaking on those issues to voters who maybe don't think that that's their key issue.
00:06:47.580That is what we need to do in the next election.
00:06:50.520But I also want to bring this up on screen as well.
00:06:53.860This is just the Globe and Mail results page.
00:06:56.480And it's just showing southwestern Ontario right now.
00:06:59.300Because I believe I was actually pretty straight on when it came to where the conservatives were going to be making pickups.
00:07:06.080The main reason why the liberals were still able to secure a minority, which is the bad in this video, that the liberals are still going to hold on to their minority.
00:07:14.540The conservatives picked up seats in places where I had heard people saying it's absurd for them to pick up seats, like Windsor West and Windsor Tecumseh Lakeshore.
00:07:22.440They ended up winning an actual London riding, London Fanshawe here, because of a vote split between the liberals and the NDP.
00:07:30.320Although they still won 5,900 votes as their margin, which is not a super split vote.
00:07:35.720They ended up actually winning Kitchener Centre from the Greens.
00:07:39.900They ended up winning Kitchener South Hesper.
00:07:41.980All of these working class ridings went super hardcore conservative.
00:07:45.800And at a later date, I want to bring up the maps and start comparing them, because you'll see where a lot of the conservative strength now lies.
00:07:54.380And these are not ridings that they're winning by small rates.
00:07:57.380These are ridings being won with decisive amounts of people voting conservative.
00:08:03.340York Centre, Roman Baber beat Yahara Sachs with 5,700 votes as the margin.
00:08:08.360You had Markham Unionville going conservative.
00:08:32.560The liberals were able to swap out a leader.
00:08:33.960And Donald Trump was definitely dominating many voters' minds when it came to how they were planning on voting.
00:08:40.580What were their main priorities when they were considering the candidates.
00:08:44.340But this is something that's actually been pretty much, throughout the country, a result trend.
00:08:50.260More working class areas went very conservative, even if the liberals held them previously.
00:08:55.600Whereas more, what I would call metropolitan suburban areas, ended up going liberal.
00:09:00.520So the riding of confederation in Calgary actually ended up going liberal, even though it was conservative last time.
00:09:07.320But the liberal, George Chahal, up in the northeast running in McKnight, who was previously in Skyview, ended up going blue.
00:09:14.260He ended up getting kicked out of office.
00:09:16.440That happened a lot of different places.
00:09:18.420It was the micro-cultures of the different ridings that made up a big difference.
00:09:23.640Where in previous elections, there was more of that idea that we're the East, we vote liberal out here.
00:09:28.760And that we're the West, we vote blue out here.
00:09:31.580And so that is actually something that's been completely shaken up in this election.
00:09:36.060Newfoundland became very close between the liberals and conservatives.
00:09:39.880Conservatives only having one seat in Newfoundland in the last election.
00:09:43.280They actually gained one, and one is on the absolute cusp of flipping, because working-class fishermen ended up splitting very hard towards the conservatives.
00:09:55.640It used to just be red and orange, and now it actually has quite a bit of blue on it.
00:09:59.980Nanaimo Ladysmith went blue because it's a working-class riding, and those people want to change.
00:10:06.280Whereas if you go to places where it's a higher percentage of government employees, higher percentage of retired voters, then they were voting for protecting, basically, government budgets, as well as defending the country against Trump.
00:10:19.800And perfectly, I guess, legitimate reason to vote.
00:10:23.420I just don't think that those votes, I think those votes were kind of misplaced in terms of the result that you wanted.
00:10:29.240Now, let's go over what basically the bad is, and that is, of course, the liberals having won the election.
00:10:36.580I just want to show you the overall seat and vote count at the moment currently as things stand, although there is about eight or ten riding super close that might end up flipping back and forth as votes are counted and as recounts are done.
00:10:48.740It's not going to change the macro result, but it might change how big the liberal minority is.
00:11:09.020And the Green Party, which I'm not even going to scroll over to mention, they got their one with Elizabeth May and Saanich in the Gulf Islands.
00:11:16.000The big thing that happened here for the conservatives is that they basically had the NDP and the bloc collapse on them.
00:11:22.520So the conservatives have a great result, but the liberals also had a fantastic result because the new Democrats under the leadership of Jagmeet Singh, who, by the way, great result in this election, is now out of office.
00:11:34.360But because he was weak, a lot of NDP voters concluded, rightfully so, what's the point of voting NDP if I'm going to get the liberals anyways by electing NDP MPs, and it's more efficient just to throw your votes behind the liberals?
00:11:48.180So whoever becomes the NDP leader in this next year is actually going to be very key.
00:11:54.500I'm not sure if they're going to go outside of their caucus because they only have seven people now, or they're going to pick someone like Heather McPherson.
00:11:59.980Since, like, if they pick the right person, it actually could hurt the liberals, it could end up damaging them by having someone who's more willing to be oppositional.
00:12:10.280Because Jagmeet Singh, again, by being so complicit, I guess, by bear-hugging the Trudeau liberal government, ended up taking off a lot of those working class voters that the NDP relied on.
00:12:23.000And that's why we had places like Vaughn-Woodbridge go so blue. That's why the conservatives, in fact, won a Hamilton riding, but they hadn't won in quite a while.
00:12:32.380Because all of those guys who work on construction sites or other communities that are heavily involved in construction and kind of hands-on work who would vote NDP ended up swinging over to the blue.
00:12:43.640But then in other areas where it was more of a liberal NDP riding and it's a little bit more metropolitan suburban, the NDP ended up benefiting the liberals and prevented conservative victories.
00:12:54.960And then again, there was places like Peterborough and Carleton, who I think the micro-riding culture tends to be that when NDP voters end up defecting to another party,
00:13:05.880those people started going towards the liberals because the culture in those ridings is more, you know, pro-government, I guess what you would say.
00:13:14.000It's more kind of anti-Trump. Not that there's like super pro-Trump ridings in Canada, but the idea was that was a motivating factor.
00:13:21.180It's more retired in the area. It's more patrician, I guess the culture is, that they didn't want the hard-nosed conservatives to come in and they're going to vote against Trump by voting liberal.
00:13:32.840And again, it can be frustrating, but there is no such thing as dooming. There is no such thing as being negative.
00:13:40.240There is only doing better next time, which the conservatives can. They gained like 30 seats here or about like 27 seats.
00:13:47.820Not a bad result. The liberals gained like five seats. They only netted an extra five seats here.
00:13:53.280So they still failed to win and now they're going to have to rely on the NDP.
00:13:56.820And from what Don Davies is saying, who is an NDP MP in Vancouver, it looks like the NDP, because they actually lost party status from dropping below 10 seats,
00:14:06.940is going to try and negotiate with the liberals to lower the threshold for what you need parties, how many seats you need party status.
00:14:13.780So with seven seats, the NDP actually might get party status to keep their extra parliamentary budget safe,
00:14:22.260because you get a little bit extra money in your parliamentary caucus budget if you actually are an official party.
00:14:27.720So maybe the liberals are going to drop down the official party line all the way down to seven.
00:14:32.720But that's all going to be stuff that's going to be shaken out as time goes on here.
00:14:37.680I do just want to tell you the exact vote count right here that you probably already saw earlier if you were eagle-eyed.
00:14:43.720So liberals got 43.7% of the vote, conservatives got 41.3, bloc got 6.3, NDP embarrassingly actually got fewer votes than the bloc with 63% of the votes,
00:14:56.400or they got a little bit more, but still.
00:17:10.300I'm definitely going to be using that, what you guys sent in for money, to invest in the channel, upgrade things, buy better cameras, buy better tripods.
00:17:18.860I really want a big whiteboard that I'm going to go get for the corner of the room so I can have a second camera setup.
00:17:24.200So on other days, I can, like, whip out a marker and start drawing up little things I want to talk about.
00:17:30.300So with that being said, thanks for watching, and I'll see you guys later.