The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - The Liberal's post-Trudeau poll bump is a mirage

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. History is already repeating itself between the U.S. and Canada,

00:00:07.640 with the Liberal Party and many of its boosters online thinking that they can actually beat

00:00:13.360 Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives because post-Justin Trudeau announcing that he will

00:00:18.140 resign in March and saying he's not going to be running for re-election in his riding of Papineau,

00:00:23.140 the polls have bumped up a little bit for the Liberals. And let me be clear, this is not momentum,

00:00:28.860 this is just the Liberals not being as depressed as they were when Justin Trudeau was still leading

00:00:34.740 the party into the next election. The Liberals were never going to be at 21% in the next federal

00:00:41.320 election. They were always going to gain that election momentum that every party catches as

00:00:46.720 election day nears. 20% was really just demonstrating that there was a lot of Liberals who probably

00:00:52.740 weren't going to show up. But that doesn't mean that now that the polls have bumped up for the

00:00:57.520 Liberals four or five points that they're suddenly in the money again. Poly and the Conservatives both

00:01:03.180 have a popular leader and a popular brand. The Liberals have a meh brand and they have no leader

00:01:10.040 right now. And do you really think that Mark Carney or Christia Freeland, the two most Michael

00:01:15.440 Ignatieff type leadership options, are really going to reignite the Liberal Party's base and then bring

00:01:22.340 on other Canadians that they didn't win last time because they have to do better not only than 2021

00:01:27.300 and 2019. They basically have to have a 2015 style result if they want to stay in government because

00:01:34.760 the Conservatives are going to gain like massively in terms of voting share as well as raw vote.

00:01:42.080 I want to take you through a couple of these polls. One of them is complete garbage. The second one is more

00:01:48.100 realistic, but it demonstrates that the Liberals are still far from even being competitive in the

00:01:53.820 next federal election. But before we get into that, guys, reminder, if you like this channel

00:01:59.680 and about 70% of you watching this video right now are not yet subscribers, make sure to scroll down and

00:02:06.200 hit the subscribe button. Like this video, leave a comment. Who do you think is going to be the next

00:02:10.860 Liberal Party leader? What percentage of the vote do you think the Liberals and the Conservatives are going

00:02:15.420 to have? I would be interested in seeing your guys' thoughts. I always like to scroll through and see

00:02:19.780 what you guys are saying. But now, without further ado, let's move on to the ECOS poll from Frank Graves.

00:02:27.900 This one is complete garbage and I will explain why. So this is the poll result that was just dropped

00:02:34.460 this morning. It shows the Conservative Party of Canada at 39%, which is fairly low considering they've

00:02:40.400 been traveling around the low to mid 40s for quite a while now. The Liberals have jumped

00:02:45.400 to 28%. The NDP are at 17, Block at 7, Greens at 5, and PPC at 3. Now, yes, the Liberals were

00:02:56.000 probably going to increase their voting share once Trudeau left. We've been seeing this from other

00:03:00.820 polls saying if Trudeau is replaced by another leader, will you consider voting Liberal? That does

00:03:06.020 increase over what the Liberals were currently polling. But no way the Liberals are suddenly at

00:03:11.560 20%, 28% overnight. The last ECOS poll, I believe, had them at like 24 or 23. 5% did not suddenly decide

00:03:21.180 they like the Liberals and a bunch of people decide they didn't like the Conservatives. This is what you

00:03:26.780 consider, what I would call an unmotivated polling bump. This is a change in polling motivated by nothing

00:03:34.760 in the sense that, yes, Trudeau is no longer the leader, but why would we assume that the Liberals

00:03:40.860 would be polling better than they were a year ago just because Trudeau resigned? Nothing really has

00:03:46.300 changed about Canada's economy, about immigration policy, about anything else the Liberal government

00:03:52.140 has been doing. They're basically just swapping out the figurehead. Why would that cause a large

00:03:57.500 portion of people to not just start voting Liberal again, but then also say we're not voting Conservative,

00:04:03.360 we're voting Liberal or NDP. It doesn't make any sense to me. And when you look at the regionals,

00:04:09.360 it really stops making any sense. So Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are now ahead when in previous

00:04:15.960 ECOS polls and all other polls they were behind, they are now ahead by 1%, 39 to 38. They are also

00:04:22.560 ahead in Ontario, 39 to 37, even though as much as I don't like them, Doug Ford's PCs are still polling

00:04:29.260 in the 40s. I don't know why then the Federals, with a far more popular leader than Doug Ford is,

00:04:35.260 would suddenly be behind the Liberals. And this is also something to prove that it's probably just a

00:04:40.620 crap poll. If there was going to be a province where the Liberals were ahead of the Conservatives,

00:04:46.600 why wouldn't it be Quebec? Somehow the Conservatives are still ahead of the Liberals,

00:04:50.820 but in second place at 25 to 22 with a Bloc Quebecois leading at 33%. You go to Manitoba and

00:04:57.900 Saskatchewan, that one makes sense. Alberta, that one makes sense. BC, that one generally makes sense.

00:05:03.960 But like, I don't really see the big swing that would cause the Liberals to then jump ahead with

00:05:10.220 female voters as well. Because women have been actually going more Conservative than Liberal for 1.00

00:05:15.760 over a year now. That's before the leadership crisis. The Conservatives were ahead in all of these

00:05:21.160 regions well before the Liberal leadership crisis. So when the Liberals start coming ahead, this really

00:05:28.200 just demonstrates to me Frank Graves is a bad pollster. Frank Graves often is completely out of

00:05:34.280 step with the polling trends every other pollster has. I'm not one of these people who thinks that

00:05:38.960 polling is rigged. It's just trying to make you vote Liberal. But if I was to apply that label of

00:05:44.920 making fake polls to anybody, it would be Frank Graves. Because so often, and it's proven by his

00:05:51.200 bias polling, where he basically polls a bunch of people, or it's his misinformation polling. He

00:05:57.080 polls people on misinformation, what piece of misinformation people believe. And when you look

00:06:02.080 at it, every single question is only stuff where if the person believed the misinformation, they were

00:06:07.260 more likely to be right wing. They do not have anything that causes left wing people. They didn't bring

00:06:12.740 up any topics that more left wing people tend to believe misinformation about. Frank Graves is

00:06:18.360 entirely comfortable with putting out scuffed polls. And I don't doubt that he hates Polyev so much,

00:06:24.340 which he absolutely does, that he is willing to cook his samples a little bit, not be so careful

00:06:30.720 about who he's sampling. Because maybe he just has a crazy urban sample in this poll, and he's just not

00:06:35.680 going to touch it, even though he knows he needs more people in southwestern Ontario and northern Ontario,

00:06:40.920 and he didn't get enough people around the rural areas of the Maritimes. He's just going for whatever

00:06:47.660 he has. So yeah, that to me is not a realistic bump for the liberals. We are not in 11 point race

00:06:54.060 at best. The liberals are behind by still 15%. And that would be considered good for the liberals at

00:07:00.940 this point. But here are the results from Main Street research. And I think these are far more

00:07:06.640 realistic. These are, this is a poll of all voters. So there is the undecided still added in.

00:07:13.340 But Main Street research finds that 39% of people are still voting conservative, 21 liberal, and I

00:07:19.960 actually find this is a bit too low for the NDP, but only 11% of people thinking about voting for the

00:07:26.180 NDP. We can go check out the with undeciders or leaners added back in people like, basically, 0.67

00:07:33.020 if you were to lean towards one party or another, but you're undecided, who you'd be voting for,

00:07:37.780 we then see the conservatives jumped to 42%, liberals 24, and NDP 12. I believe we can also get the one

00:07:45.000 where they just take out all undecides completely. And then we get the result 45% conservative, 26%

00:07:51.640 liberal, 13% NDP. Again, if I was ballparking this, I think the NDP are more likely around probably 15 or

00:08:01.720 16%. The NDP base is pretty depressed because now that the liberals have gotten rid of Trudeau,

00:08:07.920 the NDP is the party with the most unpopular leader. So yeah, I don't doubt the liberals have

00:08:14.760 increased. They're no longer depressed, but they're not motivated either. This is what I would consider

00:08:20.240 to be a Kamala Harris mirage. The liberals are not actually doing well. There's no big movement for

00:08:28.960 the liberals to be reelected to a fourth term. It's just that there's more liberals who aren't saying,

00:08:34.820 oh my goodness, I can't vote of you unless you guys get rid of that Justin guy. But the average

00:08:39.500 moderate voter are all voting conservative now because they actually want reform. Nobody just

00:08:45.460 wants Carney or Chrystia at the head of the current government. People hate the current government.

00:08:51.880 And so when I see polls like this where they're getting a bump, it really just tells me that after

00:08:57.260 months of liberals not even picking up the phone to take polls because everything is so bleak,

00:09:02.820 now that Trudeau has stepped down, you are disproportionately seeing liberals picking up

00:09:08.000 the phone to answer the polls. And that's why we're going to in the next few weeks here, if not

00:09:12.560 for a few months, we're going to see the liberals trend up a little bit. They're not going to overcome

00:09:16.820 the conservatives. And as election day nears, either they're going to flatline out and stick around

00:09:22.540 25, 27 percent of the vote. And then the conservatives are probably going to go back

00:09:27.500 up to their low 40s, even when you have undecided voters added in. Again, people vote for outcomes

00:09:35.420 for the most part. And right now, most people want taxes lowered. They want the government to crack down

00:09:41.380 on crime. They think the economy is overregulated. They think we spend too much. This is what voters

00:09:47.240 want. Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland even seem to understand that this is what voters want.

00:09:52.180 That's why both of them are now running against the consumer carbon tax. I don't think it's going

00:09:57.100 to save them. But even they understand that the zeitgeist of voters right now is reform,

00:10:03.080 is smaller government, is not doing things the way the liberal government is doing.

00:10:07.740 So I do not see the liberals, unless the new leader comes in, and it's going to be Carney and

00:10:13.400 Freeland, and they do not have the capacity to change very much. But if they had a new leader who

00:10:17.620 suddenly threw everything in the kitchen sink out and started policy from scratch,

00:10:22.180 lower tax, all that stuff, maybe the liberals would have a chance against the conservatives.

00:10:26.600 But right now, no, the liberals are not in a situation where they can actually win.

00:10:31.480 That ECOS poll, when people ran it through their models, showed the conservatives only winning 166

00:10:37.240 seats, and the liberals winning like 122, and it was going to be like a minority conservative

00:10:41.500 government. Nah, the liberals are not going to be able to claw back that many seats. Tell me the

00:10:47.800 areas of the country where people are feeling more positive. Because unless people are feeling

00:10:52.300 positive, they don't show up. Again, it's a classic thing in American politics that during the midterms,

00:10:58.600 if the president has a below, you know, it has a bad net negative approval rating, no chance they're

00:11:04.440 holding on to the House and the Senate. Right now, hold the government's approval rating in Canada,

00:11:10.960 and it's abysmal. In fact, I actually want to bring that up right now. Let's look at the last

00:11:15.780 abacus data poll that just came out a few days ago, because they usually pull government approval

00:11:20.780 rating as well as the approval rating of the leader. This is on the 7th, so this is the day

00:11:26.720 Justin Trudeau resigned, or I think the day after he resigned, they released this quick spot poll.

00:11:31.640 And the government approval rating number was horrific here. Okay, wait. See, the government

00:11:41.640 approval, if I can bring this up on screen, is literally, is only 21%. Only 21% of people on January

00:11:54.840 9th, approve of the government. 63% disapprove of the government. That number, for context, for the

00:12:03.600 Liberals to be able to do well, would probably need to fall down to a disapproval of maybe only 40%,

00:12:10.580 because in Canada, there always generally is more disapproval than there is the capacity for approval,

00:12:16.500 because in the United States, it's 50-50, so usually about half of people like you, and then if you

00:12:21.760 can claw some other party people away, you can have more than half. So in Canada, with like five or six

00:12:26.600 parties, it's difficult to be really well-liked. But if you're going to win, you've got to be north

00:12:31.600 when it comes to your approval, probably 35%, and you've got to be south of probably 40% or 45% in

00:12:38.820 terms of the disapproval. And so I don't see these fundamental problems solving themselves for the

00:12:44.500 Liberals. If the economy sucks, what's Mark Carney going to say? Well, re-elect us because we have a new

00:12:49.320 figurehead? Not happening. Same thing with Christy Freeland, same thing with anyone the Liberals might

00:12:54.700 run. The only way the Liberals do significantly better in this next election than the previous

00:12:59.860 polls were saying is if they gobble up the NDP's voter base, because everyone hates Jagmeet Singh so

00:13:05.520 much with them, but that still doesn't get them in punching distance of the Conservatives. But anyways,

00:13:11.160 I want to end this video off with just a note about Mark Carney's disaster of a campaign launch in

00:13:17.300 Edmonton, because there's this little piece of data I think is very telling about the weakness of

00:13:22.720 him as a candidate, and why I genuinely think that Christy Freeland, as boring and as beige of a 1.00

00:13:28.300 personality as she has, although same thing is true about Carney, but he has a lot of boosters on his

00:13:32.820 side, you know, Keem Trudeau behind him, massive political machine, Jon Stewart, Michael Bloomberg for

00:13:38.620 some reason, despite all of his advantages, he could still be beaten by Freeland. And I think a great

00:13:44.320 piece of data to prove why is his fundraising numbers in the first 24 hours. He was able to

00:13:52.120 fundraise in the first day, which is not an insignificant amount of money. But in 24 hours

00:13:57.860 of launching his campaign, he raised $125,000. Now, again, that sounds like a lot. But do you know how

00:14:05.860 many maxed out, like the federal maximum? How many of those donations that's worth? Only about 71. So

00:14:14.720 71 maxed out donations, I know not all of them will be maxed out. But that's a pretty paltry amount of

00:14:21.440 money. If your Mark Carney soft launched your campaign on The Daily Show, have been planning on

00:14:27.440 running for probably the last few months, have a Rolodex of 1000s of people who could easily cut

00:14:33.400 him a check if they wanted to, and it wouldn't even matter to them. $1,750 is nothing to them.

00:14:39.900 That he was only able to get 71, the equivalent of 71 maxed out donors. That's crazy bad. That's

00:14:47.260 pathetic. I've seen fundraisers that Polyev has held, has done, that were well into him being leader.

00:14:55.680 This wasn't like honeymoon period of his leadership, and everyone wants to throw money at him. I mean,

00:15:00.060 this is like more than two years on to his leadership. He'll host fundraisers where he'll

00:15:04.520 bring in more than $200,000 in a night with only having people from the local area show up and

00:15:10.560 donate. That's crazy on behalf of Mark Carney to only bring in that little across the entire country.

00:15:17.140 They would have sent out emails to people. They would have been probably doing personal phone

00:15:20.680 calls. They would have been digging into their network. And there are tons of donors who I imagine

00:15:25.700 are sitting backs thinking, well, Christy Freeland is announcing on Sunday. Let's see if her

00:15:30.280 announcement goes better than his, because his lacked energy. He in fact has already had to change his

00:15:36.020 party logo because his previous Mark Carney leadership logo was like actually violating the

00:15:42.120 copyright of Metacredit, which ironically is a debt recovery service. So he should have just made

00:15:48.380 the slogan, I'm here to collect. That would have been very funny. But Mark Carney is just a wet

00:15:53.660 sandwich of a candidate. He is not going to do well on a debate stage. And I've heard

00:15:58.180 his French is abysmal. And while I'm an English Canadian in Alberta who thinks that the French 0.99

00:16:03.900 language in Canadian politics is way overemphasized, there's just so many parts of the country that

00:16:09.260 French language literacy is not very useful. But still, if you're running in the liberal leadership

00:16:14.940 and you can't speak French, that's insane. You're the party of Montreal and you can't speak French

00:16:20.000 very well. And you're supposed to be the big, you know, technocrat unifier for the party. And you

00:16:25.720 don't have the technical skill of French. Give up. Throw in the towel, man. Like, I don't know what

00:16:31.320 to tell you. Yes, you might be able to win. But the fact Freeland already has more endorsements than

00:16:36.100 you do is insane. I also heard that Karina Gould actually might be in the race only to help out 0.72

00:16:42.760 Carney. But even then, I don't really get that strategy. I get it from Freeland's perspective of

00:16:47.720 having other MPs run, gather up support in their communities, and then throw it to her.

00:16:52.180 But Karina Gould has the same appeal as Christia Freeland. And that might dig into Freeland's 0.97

00:16:57.820 numbers. But as soon as you get to a second ballot, the Gould people are throwing their support to

00:17:02.160 Freeland, probably, because Carney is not, like, does not have a strong association with Freeland or

00:17:08.200 Gould. So Freeland and Gould's votes, I think, actually go between each other far more easily,

00:17:14.000 even though I also think that even if Freena Gould endorses Carney as a second choice, I still think

00:17:21.720 most of them would go to Freeland, because they are, like, identical candidates. Anyways, so that's

00:17:27.420 it for me today, guys. Yes, the Liberals have a polling bump. No, it does not change very much. And

00:17:33.860 we will see probably this polling bump fade over time. The Liberals were never going to do as bad as

00:17:38.620 21%. But they're also probably not going to be within 10 to even 13 points of the Conservatives.

00:17:45.380 They're going to be further behind than even that. This is going to be a, like, a Michael Ignatieff

00:17:50.940 style crushing of the Liberal Party. I guarantee they probably don't even end up competing in the

00:17:56.820 next election after this one. They're going to be in bad shape. So anyways, that's it for me,

00:18:03.080 guys. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. I have a goal of getting to 100,000 subscribers by

00:18:08.300 mid-December. So anything you can do to help me out with that, I greatly appreciate. If I don't make

00:18:13.480 it, I owe all my friends dinner. So I guess the strategy is either subscribe to the channel and

00:18:17.880 help me out or befriend me. Don't subscribe and hope that I buy you dinner. Anyways, see you guys later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 18, 2025

The Liberal's post-Trudeau poll bump is a mirage

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