The Liberal's post-Trudeau poll bump is a mirage
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
179.43143
Summary
The polls have bumped up a little bit for the Liberals post-Trudeaus announcement that he will not be running for re-election in his riding of Papineau, but that doesn't mean that the Liberals are suddenly in the money again.
Transcript
00:00:00.000
Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. History is already repeating itself between the U.S. and Canada,
00:00:07.640
with the Liberal Party and many of its boosters online thinking that they can actually beat
00:00:13.360
Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives because post-Justin Trudeau announcing that he will
00:00:18.140
resign in March and saying he's not going to be running for re-election in his riding of Papineau,
00:00:23.140
the polls have bumped up a little bit for the Liberals. And let me be clear, this is not momentum,
00:00:28.860
this is just the Liberals not being as depressed as they were when Justin Trudeau was still leading
00:00:34.740
the party into the next election. The Liberals were never going to be at 21% in the next federal
00:00:41.320
election. They were always going to gain that election momentum that every party catches as
00:00:46.720
election day nears. 20% was really just demonstrating that there was a lot of Liberals who probably
00:00:52.740
weren't going to show up. But that doesn't mean that now that the polls have bumped up for the
00:00:57.520
Liberals four or five points that they're suddenly in the money again. Poly and the Conservatives both
00:01:03.180
have a popular leader and a popular brand. The Liberals have a meh brand and they have no leader
00:01:10.040
right now. And do you really think that Mark Carney or Christia Freeland, the two most Michael
00:01:15.440
Ignatieff type leadership options, are really going to reignite the Liberal Party's base and then bring
00:01:22.340
on other Canadians that they didn't win last time because they have to do better not only than 2021
00:01:27.300
and 2019. They basically have to have a 2015 style result if they want to stay in government because
00:01:34.760
the Conservatives are going to gain like massively in terms of voting share as well as raw vote.
00:01:42.080
I want to take you through a couple of these polls. One of them is complete garbage. The second one is more
00:01:48.100
realistic, but it demonstrates that the Liberals are still far from even being competitive in the
00:01:53.820
next federal election. But before we get into that, guys, reminder, if you like this channel
00:01:59.680
and about 70% of you watching this video right now are not yet subscribers, make sure to scroll down and
00:02:06.200
hit the subscribe button. Like this video, leave a comment. Who do you think is going to be the next
00:02:10.860
Liberal Party leader? What percentage of the vote do you think the Liberals and the Conservatives are going
00:02:15.420
to have? I would be interested in seeing your guys' thoughts. I always like to scroll through and see
00:02:19.780
what you guys are saying. But now, without further ado, let's move on to the ECOS poll from Frank Graves.
00:02:27.900
This one is complete garbage and I will explain why. So this is the poll result that was just dropped
00:02:34.460
this morning. It shows the Conservative Party of Canada at 39%, which is fairly low considering they've
00:02:40.400
been traveling around the low to mid 40s for quite a while now. The Liberals have jumped
00:02:45.400
to 28%. The NDP are at 17, Block at 7, Greens at 5, and PPC at 3. Now, yes, the Liberals were
00:02:56.000
probably going to increase their voting share once Trudeau left. We've been seeing this from other
00:03:00.820
polls saying if Trudeau is replaced by another leader, will you consider voting Liberal? That does
00:03:06.020
increase over what the Liberals were currently polling. But no way the Liberals are suddenly at
00:03:11.560
20%, 28% overnight. The last ECOS poll, I believe, had them at like 24 or 23. 5% did not suddenly decide
00:03:21.180
they like the Liberals and a bunch of people decide they didn't like the Conservatives. This is what you
00:03:26.780
consider, what I would call an unmotivated polling bump. This is a change in polling motivated by nothing
00:03:34.760
in the sense that, yes, Trudeau is no longer the leader, but why would we assume that the Liberals
00:03:40.860
would be polling better than they were a year ago just because Trudeau resigned? Nothing really has
00:03:46.300
changed about Canada's economy, about immigration policy, about anything else the Liberal government
00:03:52.140
has been doing. They're basically just swapping out the figurehead. Why would that cause a large
00:03:57.500
portion of people to not just start voting Liberal again, but then also say we're not voting Conservative,
00:04:03.360
we're voting Liberal or NDP. It doesn't make any sense to me. And when you look at the regionals,
00:04:09.360
it really stops making any sense. So Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are now ahead when in previous
00:04:15.960
ECOS polls and all other polls they were behind, they are now ahead by 1%, 39 to 38. They are also
00:04:22.560
ahead in Ontario, 39 to 37, even though as much as I don't like them, Doug Ford's PCs are still polling
00:04:29.260
in the 40s. I don't know why then the Federals, with a far more popular leader than Doug Ford is,
00:04:35.260
would suddenly be behind the Liberals. And this is also something to prove that it's probably just a
00:04:40.620
crap poll. If there was going to be a province where the Liberals were ahead of the Conservatives,
00:04:46.600
why wouldn't it be Quebec? Somehow the Conservatives are still ahead of the Liberals,
00:04:50.820
but in second place at 25 to 22 with a Bloc Quebecois leading at 33%. You go to Manitoba and
00:04:57.900
Saskatchewan, that one makes sense. Alberta, that one makes sense. BC, that one generally makes sense.
00:05:03.960
But like, I don't really see the big swing that would cause the Liberals to then jump ahead with
00:05:10.220
female voters as well. Because women have been actually going more Conservative than Liberal for
00:05:15.760
over a year now. That's before the leadership crisis. The Conservatives were ahead in all of these
00:05:21.160
regions well before the Liberal leadership crisis. So when the Liberals start coming ahead, this really
00:05:28.200
just demonstrates to me Frank Graves is a bad pollster. Frank Graves often is completely out of
00:05:34.280
step with the polling trends every other pollster has. I'm not one of these people who thinks that
00:05:38.960
polling is rigged. It's just trying to make you vote Liberal. But if I was to apply that label of
00:05:44.920
making fake polls to anybody, it would be Frank Graves. Because so often, and it's proven by his
00:05:51.200
bias polling, where he basically polls a bunch of people, or it's his misinformation polling. He
00:05:57.080
polls people on misinformation, what piece of misinformation people believe. And when you look
00:06:02.080
at it, every single question is only stuff where if the person believed the misinformation, they were
00:06:07.260
more likely to be right wing. They do not have anything that causes left wing people. They didn't bring
00:06:12.740
up any topics that more left wing people tend to believe misinformation about. Frank Graves is
00:06:18.360
entirely comfortable with putting out scuffed polls. And I don't doubt that he hates Polyev so much,
00:06:24.340
which he absolutely does, that he is willing to cook his samples a little bit, not be so careful
00:06:30.720
about who he's sampling. Because maybe he just has a crazy urban sample in this poll, and he's just not
00:06:35.680
going to touch it, even though he knows he needs more people in southwestern Ontario and northern Ontario,
00:06:40.920
and he didn't get enough people around the rural areas of the Maritimes. He's just going for whatever
00:06:47.660
he has. So yeah, that to me is not a realistic bump for the liberals. We are not in 11 point race
00:06:54.060
at best. The liberals are behind by still 15%. And that would be considered good for the liberals at
00:07:00.940
this point. But here are the results from Main Street research. And I think these are far more
00:07:06.640
realistic. These are, this is a poll of all voters. So there is the undecided still added in.
00:07:13.340
But Main Street research finds that 39% of people are still voting conservative, 21 liberal, and I
00:07:19.960
actually find this is a bit too low for the NDP, but only 11% of people thinking about voting for the
00:07:26.180
NDP. We can go check out the with undeciders or leaners added back in people like, basically,
00:07:33.020
if you were to lean towards one party or another, but you're undecided, who you'd be voting for,
00:07:37.780
we then see the conservatives jumped to 42%, liberals 24, and NDP 12. I believe we can also get the one
00:07:45.000
where they just take out all undecides completely. And then we get the result 45% conservative, 26%
00:07:51.640
liberal, 13% NDP. Again, if I was ballparking this, I think the NDP are more likely around probably 15 or
00:08:01.720
16%. The NDP base is pretty depressed because now that the liberals have gotten rid of Trudeau,
00:08:07.920
the NDP is the party with the most unpopular leader. So yeah, I don't doubt the liberals have
00:08:14.760
increased. They're no longer depressed, but they're not motivated either. This is what I would consider
00:08:20.240
to be a Kamala Harris mirage. The liberals are not actually doing well. There's no big movement for
00:08:28.960
the liberals to be reelected to a fourth term. It's just that there's more liberals who aren't saying,
00:08:34.820
oh my goodness, I can't vote of you unless you guys get rid of that Justin guy. But the average
00:08:39.500
moderate voter are all voting conservative now because they actually want reform. Nobody just
00:08:45.460
wants Carney or Chrystia at the head of the current government. People hate the current government.
00:08:51.880
And so when I see polls like this where they're getting a bump, it really just tells me that after
00:08:57.260
months of liberals not even picking up the phone to take polls because everything is so bleak,
00:09:02.820
now that Trudeau has stepped down, you are disproportionately seeing liberals picking up
00:09:08.000
the phone to answer the polls. And that's why we're going to in the next few weeks here, if not
00:09:12.560
for a few months, we're going to see the liberals trend up a little bit. They're not going to overcome
00:09:16.820
the conservatives. And as election day nears, either they're going to flatline out and stick around
00:09:22.540
25, 27 percent of the vote. And then the conservatives are probably going to go back
00:09:27.500
up to their low 40s, even when you have undecided voters added in. Again, people vote for outcomes
00:09:35.420
for the most part. And right now, most people want taxes lowered. They want the government to crack down
00:09:41.380
on crime. They think the economy is overregulated. They think we spend too much. This is what voters
00:09:47.240
want. Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland even seem to understand that this is what voters want.
00:09:52.180
That's why both of them are now running against the consumer carbon tax. I don't think it's going
00:09:57.100
to save them. But even they understand that the zeitgeist of voters right now is reform,
00:10:03.080
is smaller government, is not doing things the way the liberal government is doing.
00:10:07.740
So I do not see the liberals, unless the new leader comes in, and it's going to be Carney and
00:10:13.400
Freeland, and they do not have the capacity to change very much. But if they had a new leader who
00:10:17.620
suddenly threw everything in the kitchen sink out and started policy from scratch,
00:10:22.180
lower tax, all that stuff, maybe the liberals would have a chance against the conservatives.
00:10:26.600
But right now, no, the liberals are not in a situation where they can actually win.
00:10:31.480
That ECOS poll, when people ran it through their models, showed the conservatives only winning 166
00:10:37.240
seats, and the liberals winning like 122, and it was going to be like a minority conservative
00:10:41.500
government. Nah, the liberals are not going to be able to claw back that many seats. Tell me the
00:10:47.800
areas of the country where people are feeling more positive. Because unless people are feeling
00:10:52.300
positive, they don't show up. Again, it's a classic thing in American politics that during the midterms,
00:10:58.600
if the president has a below, you know, it has a bad net negative approval rating, no chance they're
00:11:04.440
holding on to the House and the Senate. Right now, hold the government's approval rating in Canada,
00:11:10.960
and it's abysmal. In fact, I actually want to bring that up right now. Let's look at the last
00:11:15.780
abacus data poll that just came out a few days ago, because they usually pull government approval
00:11:20.780
rating as well as the approval rating of the leader. This is on the 7th, so this is the day
00:11:26.720
Justin Trudeau resigned, or I think the day after he resigned, they released this quick spot poll.
00:11:31.640
And the government approval rating number was horrific here. Okay, wait. See, the government
00:11:41.640
approval, if I can bring this up on screen, is literally, is only 21%. Only 21% of people on January
00:11:54.840
9th, approve of the government. 63% disapprove of the government. That number, for context, for the
00:12:03.600
Liberals to be able to do well, would probably need to fall down to a disapproval of maybe only 40%,
00:12:10.580
because in Canada, there always generally is more disapproval than there is the capacity for approval,
00:12:16.500
because in the United States, it's 50-50, so usually about half of people like you, and then if you
00:12:21.760
can claw some other party people away, you can have more than half. So in Canada, with like five or six
00:12:26.600
parties, it's difficult to be really well-liked. But if you're going to win, you've got to be north
00:12:31.600
when it comes to your approval, probably 35%, and you've got to be south of probably 40% or 45% in
00:12:38.820
terms of the disapproval. And so I don't see these fundamental problems solving themselves for the
00:12:44.500
Liberals. If the economy sucks, what's Mark Carney going to say? Well, re-elect us because we have a new
00:12:49.320
figurehead? Not happening. Same thing with Christy Freeland, same thing with anyone the Liberals might
00:12:54.700
run. The only way the Liberals do significantly better in this next election than the previous
00:12:59.860
polls were saying is if they gobble up the NDP's voter base, because everyone hates Jagmeet Singh so
00:13:05.520
much with them, but that still doesn't get them in punching distance of the Conservatives. But anyways,
00:13:11.160
I want to end this video off with just a note about Mark Carney's disaster of a campaign launch in
00:13:17.300
Edmonton, because there's this little piece of data I think is very telling about the weakness of
00:13:22.720
him as a candidate, and why I genuinely think that Christy Freeland, as boring and as beige of a
00:13:28.300
personality as she has, although same thing is true about Carney, but he has a lot of boosters on his
00:13:32.820
side, you know, Keem Trudeau behind him, massive political machine, Jon Stewart, Michael Bloomberg for
00:13:38.620
some reason, despite all of his advantages, he could still be beaten by Freeland. And I think a great
00:13:44.320
piece of data to prove why is his fundraising numbers in the first 24 hours. He was able to
00:13:52.120
fundraise in the first day, which is not an insignificant amount of money. But in 24 hours
00:13:57.860
of launching his campaign, he raised $125,000. Now, again, that sounds like a lot. But do you know how
00:14:05.860
many maxed out, like the federal maximum? How many of those donations that's worth? Only about 71. So
00:14:14.720
71 maxed out donations, I know not all of them will be maxed out. But that's a pretty paltry amount of
00:14:21.440
money. If your Mark Carney soft launched your campaign on The Daily Show, have been planning on
00:14:27.440
running for probably the last few months, have a Rolodex of 1000s of people who could easily cut
00:14:33.400
him a check if they wanted to, and it wouldn't even matter to them. $1,750 is nothing to them.
00:14:39.900
That he was only able to get 71, the equivalent of 71 maxed out donors. That's crazy bad. That's
00:14:47.260
pathetic. I've seen fundraisers that Polyev has held, has done, that were well into him being leader.
00:14:55.680
This wasn't like honeymoon period of his leadership, and everyone wants to throw money at him. I mean,
00:15:00.060
this is like more than two years on to his leadership. He'll host fundraisers where he'll
00:15:04.520
bring in more than $200,000 in a night with only having people from the local area show up and
00:15:10.560
donate. That's crazy on behalf of Mark Carney to only bring in that little across the entire country.
00:15:17.140
They would have sent out emails to people. They would have been probably doing personal phone
00:15:20.680
calls. They would have been digging into their network. And there are tons of donors who I imagine
00:15:25.700
are sitting backs thinking, well, Christy Freeland is announcing on Sunday. Let's see if her
00:15:30.280
announcement goes better than his, because his lacked energy. He in fact has already had to change his
00:15:36.020
party logo because his previous Mark Carney leadership logo was like actually violating the
00:15:42.120
copyright of Metacredit, which ironically is a debt recovery service. So he should have just made
00:15:48.380
the slogan, I'm here to collect. That would have been very funny. But Mark Carney is just a wet
00:15:53.660
sandwich of a candidate. He is not going to do well on a debate stage. And I've heard
00:15:58.180
his French is abysmal. And while I'm an English Canadian in Alberta who thinks that the French
00:16:03.900
language in Canadian politics is way overemphasized, there's just so many parts of the country that
00:16:09.260
French language literacy is not very useful. But still, if you're running in the liberal leadership
00:16:14.940
and you can't speak French, that's insane. You're the party of Montreal and you can't speak French
00:16:20.000
very well. And you're supposed to be the big, you know, technocrat unifier for the party. And you
00:16:25.720
don't have the technical skill of French. Give up. Throw in the towel, man. Like, I don't know what
00:16:31.320
to tell you. Yes, you might be able to win. But the fact Freeland already has more endorsements than
00:16:36.100
you do is insane. I also heard that Karina Gould actually might be in the race only to help out
00:16:42.760
Carney. But even then, I don't really get that strategy. I get it from Freeland's perspective of
00:16:47.720
having other MPs run, gather up support in their communities, and then throw it to her.
00:16:52.180
But Karina Gould has the same appeal as Christia Freeland. And that might dig into Freeland's
00:16:57.820
numbers. But as soon as you get to a second ballot, the Gould people are throwing their support to
00:17:02.160
Freeland, probably, because Carney is not, like, does not have a strong association with Freeland or
00:17:08.200
Gould. So Freeland and Gould's votes, I think, actually go between each other far more easily,
00:17:14.000
even though I also think that even if Freena Gould endorses Carney as a second choice, I still think
00:17:21.720
most of them would go to Freeland, because they are, like, identical candidates. Anyways, so that's
00:17:27.420
it for me today, guys. Yes, the Liberals have a polling bump. No, it does not change very much. And
00:17:33.860
we will see probably this polling bump fade over time. The Liberals were never going to do as bad as
00:17:38.620
21%. But they're also probably not going to be within 10 to even 13 points of the Conservatives.
00:17:45.380
They're going to be further behind than even that. This is going to be a, like, a Michael Ignatieff
00:17:50.940
style crushing of the Liberal Party. I guarantee they probably don't even end up competing in the
00:17:56.820
next election after this one. They're going to be in bad shape. So anyways, that's it for me,
00:18:03.080
guys. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. I have a goal of getting to 100,000 subscribers by
00:18:08.300
mid-December. So anything you can do to help me out with that, I greatly appreciate. If I don't make
00:18:13.480
it, I owe all my friends dinner. So I guess the strategy is either subscribe to the channel and
00:18:17.880
help me out or befriend me. Don't subscribe and hope that I buy you dinner. Anyways, see you guys later.