The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 25, 2024


Trudeau could LOSE his own seat based on new polls!

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Papineau Polyev Erin O'Toole Andrew Scheer Mard Verdun Carleton Harper Green Mark
CTV News caught editing footage to smear Conservatives Poilievre's No Confidence vote exposes Singh as Trudeau's lackey

Episode Stats


Length

13 minutes

Words per minute

178.05

Word count

2,401

Sentence count

147

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Toxicity

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, I talk about the recent by-elections in the province of Quebec, and how they may have shifted the balance of power between the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois. I also talk about a new model I've been using to predict the results of the upcoming byelections.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Many were predicting that the Montreal by-election in La Salle and Mard Verdun could be do or die for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau,
00:00:08.860 in the sense that maybe his party would go after him and make him step down as leader so they can pick somebody better for the next election.
00:00:16.940 I never thought that was going to happen. Trudeau has way too big of an ego to step down, and frankly, there isn't a spine left in the Liberal caucus.
00:00:24.400 Nobody would step forward, demand that he resign, or put forward some sort of motion within the party saying that he needs to have a leadership review.
00:00:32.940 That was never going to happen. But what actually might happen, why that election might have been do or die,
00:00:39.900 is because it's empowered the Bloc Québécois so much in Quebec that usually overall, on a national level, they have 6% or 7% in election.
00:00:48.520 Now they're at 8%. And obviously, that's a big deal when it's a party that only runs in one province, that being obviously Quebec.
00:00:57.440 And so now, even in polls that are a little bit nicer to the Liberals on a national level,
00:01:02.680 are showing the Bloc Québécois with a massive lead in that province.
00:01:07.080 And enough of a lead, too, with the NDP also edging up, that Montreal might no longer be a safe red-walled city for the Liberals.
00:01:16.060 Again, I've said it in other videos. This is like, actually in another video, I said this is like with the loss of La Salamard Verdun for the Liberals.
00:01:24.080 That'd be like losing a seat in Saskatoon or in, like, the conservative parts of Calgary.
00:01:29.780 Not really. Those were the safest of safe seats. This would be like losing Battle River.
00:01:35.180 This would be like losing rural Saskatchewan or Alberta ridings.
00:01:39.200 This would be like losing Portage Lisger. It's harder to find more safe seats than the seats in Montreal for the federal Liberals.
00:01:48.000 But anyways, I want to show you a new model based on some of the new polling that's come out, like the ECOS poll.
00:01:54.720 Even though I don't even think ECOS is really detecting how big the conservative lead really is,
00:02:00.160 I think they only have the conservatives plus 15.
00:02:02.340 I don't see that being real considering, not real, I don't see that being fully accurate just looking at the by-election results in places like Toronto, St. Paul,
00:02:12.640 and the conservatives edging up in all these newer by-elections.
00:02:15.860 Even though they didn't win any of the last two by-elections, they've greatly increased their appeal.
00:02:20.680 So I think it's more like the conservatives are at that plus 20, which we are seeing in a lot of other pollsters.
00:02:25.880 But this new poll has Justin Trudeau losing his own riding in Papineau.
00:02:33.020 So it's based off of this ECOS poll right here that's giving the conservatives a 40%, nationally, Liberals 25, NDP 17, Block 8, Greens 6, and PPC 3.
00:02:46.640 And that's 6, even though it seems like a big increase for them.
00:02:49.240 It's not that big for the Greens considering in the last election they didn't even run a full slate of candidates.
00:02:55.260 I think they were only running candidates in two-thirds of the riding, and that heavily, heavily reduces your overall numbers
00:03:02.620 just because a lot of people are, one, not going to vote for you because you're not running a full slate,
00:03:06.740 or they can't even vote for you because they don't even live with a Green Party candidate in their area.
00:03:11.780 But it's resulting in Papineau, Justin Trudeau's riding going orange, going over to the NDP.
00:03:18.120 It would be nice to see it go conservative, but it's Montreal.
00:03:23.280 That's not going to happen, at least for the next decade.
00:03:26.400 Montreal is a strange place.
00:03:28.840 Not to go in on the Montrealers too much, but it's a place where the conservatives frequently get less than 10% of the vote in many of these ridings.
00:03:38.580 In Papineau, for instance, last election, the Conservative Party of Canada got 4.8% of the vote.
00:03:46.560 And it's not an outlier because Aaron O'Toole is the leader.
00:03:50.500 I believe when Andrew Scheer was the leader and even when Harper, it was like maybe 7%, 8%.
00:03:55.540 It's been always a very, it's always been not a conservative riding.
00:04:00.540 That's the best way of putting it.
00:04:02.320 It's just not a conservative riding in any way, shape, or form.
00:04:05.820 But the big thing that's going on right now for the Liberals is that because Montreal, they would win many of these seats with around 45%, 50% of the vote.
00:04:16.680 It's not like a world-crushing number like 70% that a federal conservative might get in a rural area.
00:04:22.880 It's 50% with their second-place opponent coming in at like 20%.
00:04:27.100 So they have a big margin, which is what made the seat safe.
00:04:30.440 But since they've ticked off so many people, both on the left and the right, now the Liberal Party, like British Columbia United, which fell apart in BC, they've become the party for nobody in particular.
00:04:42.620 So if you're a big French nationalist, you're voting for the bloc.
00:04:46.620 If you're a big progressive, especially if you're like part of the more anti-Semitic left, you're voting for the NDP or maybe the Greens.
00:04:54.660 The Greens have always been like the party of healing crystals and hating Israel.
00:04:59.000 And so now the Liberals occupy a space where they'll have probably a decent chunk of traditional Liberal voters who always vote Liberal because that's what they do.
00:05:09.340 Many Anglo-Montrealers vote Liberal since it's considered like the more friendly Anglo party since obviously the BQ are very hostile.
00:05:18.840 But this is the current regional numbers and this is why we are getting models coming out.
00:05:24.120 Models who have been right about many elections, based on these numbers, showing Trudeau losing Papineau with the bloc having 35% of the vote in the province.
00:05:34.900 This is the Liberals, 21, NDP, 17, and Conservatives, 16.
00:05:39.800 This is just the ECOS poll, but this is not exactly an outlier.
00:05:44.300 If anything, I would say that anything giving the bloc less than 6% nationally or 6% and lower is in fact the outlier now because they've just been empowered by a big by-election victory.
00:05:55.960 Now people in the province know that if they want to take out a Liberal, the bloc might be their best bet.
00:06:00.980 And in places like Toronto and Montreal, where there is usually one party that's very dominant, everybody who doesn't like that party, even if they might prefer the Greens or the NDP or the Conservatives, will move over to whatever option at least gets the incumbent out.
00:06:17.040 That happens all over the place.
00:06:18.540 It's currently happening in BC.
00:06:19.880 A lot of former BC Green voters are actually moving Conservative because they voted Green in the past because they're just anti-establishment.
00:06:27.620 They don't like the way that normal politics works in British Columbia, so they vote Green, even though you could say that the Greens pretty much just want to do whatever the current government's doing but with more money.
00:06:38.420 But they have an anti-establishment appeal.
00:06:40.320 So now they're moving Conservative because they're actually truly against the way that the current NDP establishment are doing things.
00:06:46.420 And even when I go over to the 338 averages for Papineau, yes, it gives Justin Trudeau a 99% chance of winning his riding.
00:06:56.240 But this is with every single poll added together.
00:06:59.180 This is with all the past couple of months of polling.
00:07:02.080 This usually would project Trudeau at winning 48% or 50% of the vote and having a 100% chance, 99.9% chance of winning the riding.
00:07:12.800 Yes, are the NDP only at 1% now?
00:07:16.060 Yes, but that's with a lot of friendly polls being added in.
00:07:19.020 And again, this is showing he's lost ground by about 10% and the NDP have gained about 5% or 6%.
00:07:25.580 Mark my words, there's going to be a lot of even Conservative voters or Block voters willing to vote NDP no matter who it is because guess what?
00:07:34.760 That person isn't going to be Justin Trudeau.
00:07:37.500 I generally will just tell people, vote for the candidate that you want.
00:07:41.100 That's generally the good option.
00:07:43.360 It shapes Canadian politics over time in subtle ways the way you want it to go.
00:07:48.620 Even if you vote for a party, that's not going to get a lot of vote.
00:07:51.200 What you're indicating to a politician in your riding or that party is that I want you guys to be more like this party and maybe I'll consider voting for you.
00:07:58.760 People take cues like that.
00:08:00.580 And in Montreal, though, I'd say that in a riding like Papineau, I would tell you suspend that normal way of voting where you just vote for what you want.
00:08:08.920 But I'd vote for getting rid of Trudeau because I would feel like that's what everyone should want in that riding, that he shouldn't just lose the federal election next year and get to ride off in the sunset saying, I was just too progressive for Canada.
00:08:22.180 All the right-wing backlashes, what got me out of the prime minister's office.
00:08:28.140 It was the Russians or something he'd make up.
00:08:30.860 I want him to not even be able to declare victory in his own riding.
00:08:34.900 I can't speak French, so too bad I probably couldn't go there and campaign.
00:08:38.340 But man, I would even encourage other conservatives.
00:08:40.820 I would just troll Trudeau in his own riding.
00:08:42.680 If I was pure Polyev, I would door knock Trudeau's riding. 0.69
00:08:47.480 Yes, are the conservatives not probably going to get more than 10% or 12% of the vote if they really try hard?
00:08:52.820 Sure.
00:08:53.680 But why not trip up Trudeau?
00:08:55.660 Why not make him hurt in his own riding?
00:08:57.500 I always endorse making a leader feel the pressure in their own home riding because if they're doing a bad job, they deserve to hear it from the people they specifically represent.
00:09:07.480 They deserve to have the stilts knocked out from underneath them. 0.96
00:09:10.440 And the great thing is you could never replicate that same move in Carleton, Ottawa, Carleton, where pure Polyev is the leader. 0.83
00:09:18.240 He's way too safe.
00:09:19.580 Nobody's going to flip any voters against pure Polyev because he's doing a job.
00:09:23.520 He's serving his riding.
00:09:24.700 And overall, the conservatives are just popular in Canada.
00:09:28.220 That's always this is me trailing off and making a really weird comment.
00:09:31.800 That's something that always happens.
00:09:33.240 People assume when you're hated by your own ridings voters, that's a special kind of incompetent for a politician.
00:09:41.200 In the United States, Congress has an approval rating of like 22%. 1.00
00:09:45.120 It's always absolute near the bottom of approvals because everyone thinks everyone else's congressperson is an idiot. 0.99
00:09:51.680 But if you actually ask people, do you like your own guy, they'll say yes. 0.98
00:09:55.460 And in a certain sense, you shouldn't like Congress or you shouldn't really like Parliament in Canada because everyone should be representing their own constituents needs.
00:10:04.960 And for the most part, that means a lot of constituents should be having some friction between each other because they might want opposite things.
00:10:12.000 And we have to hash out how we can deliver to both groups and keep everything generally fair, not transferring money from one group to another.
00:10:20.820 I don't think that should ever be done.
00:10:22.520 But in terms of like the balance between social spending and taxes, stuff like that, other issues around, you know, social issues, you know, the military foreign policy, different constituencies can disagree on that.
00:10:37.860 And in a certain sense, you should like your own guy, but you shouldn't like everybody else's guy because they're not serving you and they're not supposed to be responding to everything you want.
00:10:46.680 At the same time, this is like, that's the annoying thing about Canadian politics.
00:10:50.400 When every vote in most parties is whipped, it means so often politicians are basically being told to side against their own people or get kicked out of caucus.
00:11:00.780 Hopefully in the future, hopefully in a poly of government, that doesn't happen.
00:11:05.340 I even think the budget shouldn't be a compelled vote.
00:11:08.380 If you can't put together a budget that your own MPs voluntarily want to vote for, bit of a problem, bit of like you didn't do your homework sort of a thing.
00:11:18.200 But anyways, it's a good day.
00:11:20.820 Justin Trudeau might lose his own riding.
00:11:23.760 He's not pulling out of this tailspin at all.
00:11:26.500 He just keeps doubling down on ignorance, just pretending like he's on top of the world.
00:11:31.820 And Canadians just don't get how high minded and compassionate he is.
00:11:36.160 Everyone can see their bank account.
00:11:37.660 They know they're not.
00:11:38.380 He's not compassionate.
00:11:39.520 They know they're they're not looking out for him.
00:11:41.400 And he's going to come out and say, oh, but we provided free contraceptives.
00:11:44.720 Oh, that should satiate the hunger of the nation.
00:11:47.580 Hey, we don't need to buy groceries anymore.
00:11:49.460 We have free condoms and contraceptive pills.
00:11:52.280 Yay.
00:11:52.460 Anyway, so if you guys want to donate to the Give, Send, Go, I have that in the description below.
00:11:58.060 We're being sued by a Chinese billionaire developer for zero reason.
00:12:02.940 Technically, the reason's defamation.
00:12:05.040 But he still hasn't submitted any actual evidence to substantiate that we've defamed him, harmed him, or said absolutely anything untrue.
00:12:13.340 Frankly, every single thing we said, pretty much other than that, he donated to a specific politician we're highlighting was already covered in a Globe and Mail article that we linked in our own article.
00:12:23.400 But he's suing because he was too scared, in my opinion, to sue the Globe and Mail.
00:12:28.460 So he tried to sue me and the National Telegraph.
00:12:31.360 I was 22 at the time that this lawsuit started, and he was assuming that I'd be intimidated and give him a fake apology.
00:12:37.700 So I guess he can run around holding up a piece of paper saying everything everyone's ever said about me is untrue.
00:12:42.340 Look, I got a 22-year-old to apologize.
00:12:45.200 But we don't like bullies here at the National Telegraph.
00:12:47.640 So we fought back, and it's cost us over $32,000 so far.
00:12:51.760 And I still think it's perfectly worth it.
00:12:54.640 Anyways, this is truly the end of the video.
00:12:56.680 I'm not going to keep snaking my way around.
00:12:58.560 See you guys later.
00:12:59.140 Thank you.