Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada are no longer just losing to the Conservative Party and Pierre Paulyov anymore, they re not even competing at this point. The next election is going to be a coronation for the Tories, while the Liberals are fighting to see whether or not they re going to look pathetic after the next election.
00:00:00.240We've gotten to the point in Canada where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada are no longer just losing to the Conservative Party and Pierre Paulyov anymore.
00:00:08.620They're really just not even competing at this point.
00:00:12.980The 2025 election at this point is effectively just going to be a coronation for the Conservative Party,
00:00:18.600while Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau fight to see whether or not the Liberal Party or the NDP is going to look more pathetic after the next election.
00:00:26.020And again, what's so staggering about how bad Justin Trudeau is doing is think about it.
00:00:32.400He has the biggest vote banks in the country, the GTA, Montreal and Vancouver, usually typically on his side.
00:00:38.280It's very rare for the Liberal Party not to have a massive majority in the GTA, Montreal and have a very strong showing in Vancouver,
00:00:45.740as well as capturing most of the Atlantic provinces without really even trying.
00:00:50.160And then they also have the media and different non-profit groups that the government funds are always pushing for the Liberal government.
00:00:57.600These people are playing on easy mode.
00:00:59.960And yet right now, as we speak, 338 Canada, the polling projection website,
00:01:04.920has the Liberals with a less than 1% chance of winning the most seats after the next election
00:01:10.180and a less than 1% chance of even having a minority government.
00:02:33.540There's crime all over the streets in large part because of liberal federal policy.
00:02:37.580We have a drug crisis in large part because of liberal federal policy.
00:02:41.900We have literally a terrorism problem in Canada where people are running around the streets supporting Hamas.
00:02:47.100And the liberal government doesn't have the moral backbone to actually go after them in any strong sense.
00:02:51.740Even Justin Trudeau is almost trying to pin the crisis in Gaza on Israel rather than Hamas, who's holding their people hostage and not giving them resources.
00:03:02.820The liberal voters, as maybe as conservatives, as much as we would blame them for voting for Justin Trudeau in the first place, as someone who maybe doesn't pay too much attention to politics, it would have made sense at the time.
00:03:13.840Even if you're sitting in the political cheap seats in Canada, at this point, you can tell that the liberals are failing.
00:03:19.680And that's why their voting has collapsed.
00:03:22.120I'll just show the regional breakdown right here.
00:03:24.360The thing that you're getting with the liberal voters is that overall, the NDP is not exactly running away from Jagmeet Singh.
00:03:31.800Jagmeet Singh's terrible, but I think that what else are you going to go vote for?
00:03:37.080And what's happening with the liberals, though, is the liberals are losing their votes to the NDP, to the Greens, and to the bloc because they know that Justin Trudeau is not going to win the next election.
00:03:47.000So you might as well vote conservative or vote for some loser left-wing party that's not going to win anyways because at least they represent my values, whatever non-values you happen to have.
00:03:59.820This is all because Justin Trudeau has effectively been enabled by the media.
00:04:05.740Justin Trudeau has never had to correct himself.
00:04:07.640He's never had to pull back on a policy, improve it, and show he has the ability to grow.
00:04:13.020He would just have Rosemary Barton come out on TV or anyone else from the CBC and Global News and the Toronto Star and say, you know what?
00:04:19.920Actually, this policy failure just shows that Justin Trudeau is a great prime minister and you should vote for him next time because Aaron O'Toole is racist or something like that.
00:04:28.720Aaron O'Toole was the most pathetic conservative leader anyways.
00:04:31.480He could have run for the liberal leadership and he would have fit right in.
00:04:35.040And yet the legacy media is so corrupt that they're willing to pretend that Aaron O'Toole is some hard-right conservative.
00:04:41.380But that just shows you how sort of in the bag the legacy media is.
00:04:45.220And because they were so in the bag, Justin Trudeau, like I just said, he never had to actually demonstrate personal growth.
00:04:51.360And this is where I just want to go to his approval ratings right now.
00:04:55.840I'll link their poll in the description of this video below.
00:04:58.580I think they just do a good job because before I get to the approval ratings now, what I don't like that other what other polling companies do is they list strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, and I don't know.
00:05:11.840The only three options, in my opinion, should be approve, disapprove, or I don't know.
00:05:15.680No one somewhat approves of someone or somewhat disapproves of someone.
00:05:18.660You either like them or you don't like them, especially in politics when people do not have nuanced takes.
00:05:24.360So I find that the somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove options just softens what people's real feelings are.
00:05:29.980If you only somewhat approve of someone, you really don't care that much.
00:05:33.080You should be in the I don't know category because it's unlikely you're going to show up for someone who you just kind of are lukewarm with.
00:05:39.420That was what was proven out with Aaron O'Toole.
00:05:41.740It didn't matter if most conservatives would say they liked them.
00:05:44.260A lot of people didn't show up because somewhat approval is not really strong approval.
00:05:48.660Anyways, going to this poll, Justin Trudeau, like, and again, look at the numbers back in the day in 2021, when he was still objectively a terrible prime minister.
00:05:58.640He had moments where he was actually more popular than he was unpopular.
00:06:02.940These days, since about April of 2022, it's just been liftoff for the disapproval rating.
00:06:09.200He is currently sitting at a 55% disapproval rating and a 27% approval rate.
00:06:14.360And the 27% here is very, very key because what you notice is that Justin Trudeau is only ever able to get enough people, as many people to vote liberal as people who approve of him.
00:06:25.980The Liberal Party's appeal is almost entirely based off what you think of Justin Trudeau.
00:06:31.340Even if I like peer polio, but even if you don't really love peer polio, you could still see yourself voting conservative.
00:06:36.720I like the policies, I'm maybe more of a social conservative, or maybe I'm very, like, liberal on social issues, red Tory.
00:06:43.380And even though, like, peer polio doesn't agree with either of those groups fully, you're willing to vote for them because of your, because of just other values issues that you appreciate.
00:06:51.600With the Liberal Party, like, what are you voting for?
00:06:53.920Like, they're going to give you maybe a few more extra benefits.
00:06:56.680You've already seen all these benefits are effectively poison pills, driving up inflation while giving you almost no value back.
00:07:03.040Whereas with the Conservative Party, you can like peer polio's personality, he might be a big asset to you, what's driving your vote.
00:07:10.960At the same time, you also don't have to care about him at all, because Conservative Party members pass great policies at convention, and you're going to show up and support what's going to be in the Conservative Party platform.
00:07:19.140That's what the benefit for the Conservative Party, even the NDP, as bad as Jagmeet Singh is, and let me put strong emphasis on bad, I want to make the acronym out of bad, he is boring, annoying, and dumb.
00:07:34.300He hits every single aspect of what I would consider a bad politician.
00:07:38.360But even with the NDP, as bad as Jagmeet Singh is, at least, you know, workers unions will show up for him, at least crazy university student unions who support Hamas and whatnot, at least they'll show up for him, because, you know, the NDP happens to have a lot of dumb stuff that they like in their platform.
00:07:56.940But you don't, so you don't have to like Jagmeet Singh, you can like Jagmeet Singh in both form, but with Justin Trudeau, if you don't like him, you're not showing up, even if somehow there's something in the Liberal platform that you like, you're not showing up for Justin Trudeau, because you no longer trust Justin Trudeau.
00:08:10.720And I just want to pull up the overall projections just to demonstrate how bad this is.
00:08:20.600But, but when I jump up to here, these are just projections, these are not like the literal polls, it's just based on averaging all the polls together, having a having an 11% lead for the conservatives on average, with a lot of pollsters that are very fickle, that sometimes even show the overalls up by 4%, because the sample size from the particular pollster, usually ledger is terrible.
00:08:45.360But that 11% demonstrates that it's not, again, it's not because Pollyov is winning people in downtown Toronto or Montreal, those places are always liberal.
00:08:55.660I think the Liberal Party's floor is always going to be around, you know, 23%.
00:09:02.340Even Michael Ignatieff could scrape together like 19%.
00:09:05.340We're running the worst campaign on the planet.
00:09:07.220But notice the Liberals numbers, it's 28%.
00:09:09.560And then notice Justin Trudeau's approval rate, it's 27%.
00:09:12.420I think that the Liberal Party is always, for its vote count, is always going to be stuck hovering around Justin Trudeau's approval rating.
00:09:21.140Whereas when you look at Pierre Pollyov's approval rating, and I'll just quickly go check on that in the Abacus poll, you don't need to see it on, I assume you don't need to see it on screen to believe me.
00:09:30.660But right now, he's 36% disapproval, 35% approval.
00:09:34.600Obviously, it's harder to have a high approval as an opposition leader, because the media demonizes you.
00:09:39.320Not everyone knows your name yet until election time and a lot of other things.
00:09:42.860But Pierre Pollyov is around 35% approval, and the current Conservative Party is at, you know, I think it's actually 35%.
00:09:50.800It does track well for this, but I've been checking in on it for months and months and months.
00:09:54.820When the Conservative Party was at like 42% approval, or in terms of scoring 42% of the polls, Pierre Pollyov could have been down 32%, and it didn't really matter.
00:10:03.940Even now, he's still outpacing, the party's outpacing him by three or four points.
00:10:08.520Next week, it could be greater or less.
00:10:11.160But the whole point is, it doesn't matter what people think of Pierre Pollyov, they will still vote Conservative.
00:10:17.340Anyways, I just want to quickly end this off by just going back to this chart, because again, it's staggering.
00:10:23.160The Liberal minority government chance of occurring, the chance that Justin Trudeau will lead another government with the help of either Jagmeet Singh or Yves-Francois Bonachette from the bloc, is less than 1%.
00:10:38.480Now, I don't expect that the polls are going to stay like this forever.
00:10:42.520Usually, as soon as an election is called in 2025, you're going to see things tighten up, because people get all silly, and they're like, they forget what they know, and they immediately jump into, well, who's going to win my vote?
00:10:53.120Like, no, the Liberals suck. Stop pretending like they can win your vote back.
00:10:56.460They're not, they haven't performed well.
00:10:58.460But with a 1% minority chance, or less than 1% minority chance, I hope that after this next election, the left realizes that people do not want ideology in their government in terms of forceful ideology.
00:11:14.100The Conservative Party, especially under Pierre Pollyov, is a more ideological Conservative Party.
00:11:18.800But the great thing, what people like, is that their vision is not ideological, is that we are going to leave you alone, and we're not going to impose our values on you.
00:11:27.200We are just going to get out of the economy, we're going to get politics out of schools, and the government, and we're going to leave you alone.
00:11:33.160Because what individual Canadians can achieve is far more important than what the government can achieve.
00:11:38.160And that's the great thing about giving Justin Trudeau eight years, rather than just four years, is I think that hopefully enough Canadians learn the lesson that you don't actually want the government taking care of things for you.
00:11:49.660Yes, there's a certain demographic of voters who like the safety blanket of the government doing things for them.
00:11:54.860But at the end of the day, it's not good for you to have the government do things.
00:11:58.940And I just want to quickly just mention this too, in the polling of the regions.
00:12:02.540Imagine that, it's a 40, the Conservatives have 41% in Ontario, the Liberals are at 30.
00:12:09.220That is an area where I think in 2021, the Liberals won that by three or four points.
00:12:13.520They have effectively what has taken place is like a 16 point swing.
00:12:16.920That is horrifying. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Liberals don't exist.
00:12:22.600Same thing in Alberta, the Liberals do not exist.
00:12:24.820And in BC, they're fighting over the NDP for who's going to capture more of the vote.
00:12:28.380Even in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are at 42%.
00:12:32.26042%. And Abacus tends to be a fairly stable pollster.
00:12:36.200They don't, ECOS is the bad one where they have super big swings where the Liberals are somehow up 7% in a region they haven't been up in in like a decade and whatnot.
00:12:47.580The Conservatives are up 11% in Atlantic Canada, a place where the Liberals swept every single seat in 2015.
00:12:55.460That demonstrates to you that there is something that Justin Trudeau has done, or Justin Trudeau assumed that wherever he went, his supporters would follow.
00:13:03.620And their left is quickly figuring out that's not how it works.
00:13:06.860And I sincerely doubt they're going to find a way of replacing him by 2025.