The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 17, 2023


Trudeau Has Less Than 1% Chance Of Winning In 2025

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Jagmeet Singh Pierre Poilievre Erin O'Toole Michael Ignatieff Rosemary Barton
＂War Bad＂ Is A Child's Position on Israel and Hamas Are Trudeau's Liberals Collapsing？!？

Episode Stats


Length

14 minutes

Words per minute

198.96

Word count

2,862

Sentence count

166

Harmful content

Toxicity

17

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada are no longer just losing to the Conservative Party and Pierre Paulyov anymore, they re not even competing at this point. The next election is going to be a coronation for the Tories, while the Liberals are fighting to see whether or not they re going to look pathetic after the next election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.240 We've gotten to the point in Canada where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada are no longer just losing to the Conservative Party and Pierre Paulyov anymore.
00:00:08.620 They're really just not even competing at this point. 0.92
00:00:11.240 It's really pathetic to witness.
00:00:12.980 The 2025 election at this point is effectively just going to be a coronation for the Conservative Party, 0.93
00:00:18.600 while Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau fight to see whether or not the Liberal Party or the NDP is going to look more pathetic after the next election.
00:00:26.020 And again, what's so staggering about how bad Justin Trudeau is doing is think about it.
00:00:32.400 He has the biggest vote banks in the country, the GTA, Montreal and Vancouver, usually typically on his side.
00:00:38.280 It's very rare for the Liberal Party not to have a massive majority in the GTA, Montreal and have a very strong showing in Vancouver,
00:00:45.740 as well as capturing most of the Atlantic provinces without really even trying.
00:00:50.160 And then they also have the media and different non-profit groups that the government funds are always pushing for the Liberal government.
00:00:57.600 These people are playing on easy mode.
00:00:59.960 And yet right now, as we speak, 338 Canada, the polling projection website,
00:01:04.920 has the Liberals with a less than 1% chance of winning the most seats after the next election
00:01:10.180 and a less than 1% chance of even having a minority government. 0.97
00:01:15.100 That is staggeringly pathetic. 0.90
00:01:17.620 And the great thing about this is because of all of the institutional like legs up that the Liberals have, 0.96
00:01:24.880 you know, the media, the GTA area, Montreal, all these sort of easy ways for the Liberals to gain votes,
00:01:30.560 whether through advocates in the media or just based on the way the electoral system is slanted,
00:01:36.260 that it is without a doubt that people are rejecting the Liberals and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
00:01:42.040 because of their policies being terrible.
00:01:44.660 It wasn't about the corruption. If it was about the corruption, the Liberals would have been out in 2019 and 2021.
00:01:50.700 Canadian society is extremely trusting.
00:01:53.160 So it's almost like corruption just sort of like goes off, like, you know, goes away like water off a duck's back.
00:01:59.140 People assume, well, maybe they didn't mean it.
00:02:01.140 Maybe let's not be too political like Americans are about issues with government.
00:02:05.500 So that stuff didn't hurt Justin Trudeau.
00:02:07.000 So it has to be, it just has to be his policy failures.
00:02:12.000 His voters stuck by for eight years waiting for all the policies to actually become good.
00:02:16.980 Justin Trudeau kept saying, well, we just, we're just going to keep spending.
00:02:19.620 We're just going to keep doing deficit spending.
00:02:21.240 And eventually everything will work out.
00:02:23.540 We'll be a booming economy.
00:02:24.760 We'll have paid down the deficit.
00:02:26.540 Like, you know, we'll like per capita, everyone will be making more.
00:02:29.280 And we've become a country where per capita people are making less.
00:02:32.140 People can't afford homes.
00:02:33.540 There's crime all over the streets in large part because of liberal federal policy.
00:02:37.580 We have a drug crisis in large part because of liberal federal policy.
00:02:41.900 We have literally a terrorism problem in Canada where people are running around the streets supporting Hamas.
00:02:47.100 And the liberal government doesn't have the moral backbone to actually go after them in any strong sense.
00:02:51.740 Even Justin Trudeau is almost trying to pin the crisis in Gaza on Israel rather than Hamas, who's holding their people hostage and not giving them resources.
00:03:01.360 It's all because of this.
00:03:02.820 The liberal voters, as maybe as conservatives, as much as we would blame them for voting for Justin Trudeau in the first place, as someone who maybe doesn't pay too much attention to politics, it would have made sense at the time.
00:03:13.840 Even if you're sitting in the political cheap seats in Canada, at this point, you can tell that the liberals are failing.
00:03:19.680 And that's why their voting has collapsed.
00:03:22.120 I'll just show the regional breakdown right here.
00:03:24.360 The thing that you're getting with the liberal voters is that overall, the NDP is not exactly running away from Jagmeet Singh.
00:03:31.800 Jagmeet Singh's terrible, but I think that what else are you going to go vote for? 0.92
00:03:35.580 Justin Trudeau, he's awful.
00:03:37.080 And what's happening with the liberals, though, is the liberals are losing their votes to the NDP, to the Greens, and to the bloc because they know that Justin Trudeau is not going to win the next election.
00:03:47.000 So you might as well vote conservative or vote for some loser left-wing party that's not going to win anyways because at least they represent my values, whatever non-values you happen to have.
00:03:59.820 This is all because Justin Trudeau has effectively been enabled by the media.
00:04:05.740 Justin Trudeau has never had to correct himself.
00:04:07.640 He's never had to pull back on a policy, improve it, and show he has the ability to grow.
00:04:13.020 He would just have Rosemary Barton come out on TV or anyone else from the CBC and Global News and the Toronto Star and say, you know what?
00:04:19.920 Actually, this policy failure just shows that Justin Trudeau is a great prime minister and you should vote for him next time because Aaron O'Toole is racist or something like that. 0.97
00:04:28.720 Aaron O'Toole was the most pathetic conservative leader anyways. 0.92
00:04:31.480 He could have run for the liberal leadership and he would have fit right in. 0.97
00:04:35.040 And yet the legacy media is so corrupt that they're willing to pretend that Aaron O'Toole is some hard-right conservative.
00:04:41.380 But that just shows you how sort of in the bag the legacy media is.
00:04:45.220 And because they were so in the bag, Justin Trudeau, like I just said, he never had to actually demonstrate personal growth.
00:04:51.360 And this is where I just want to go to his approval ratings right now.
00:04:53.940 I like the abacus approval ratings.
00:04:55.840 I'll link their poll in the description of this video below.
00:04:58.580 I think they just do a good job because before I get to the approval ratings now, what I don't like that other what other polling companies do is they list strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, and I don't know.
00:05:11.840 The only three options, in my opinion, should be approve, disapprove, or I don't know.
00:05:15.680 No one somewhat approves of someone or somewhat disapproves of someone.
00:05:18.660 You either like them or you don't like them, especially in politics when people do not have nuanced takes.
00:05:24.360 So I find that the somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove options just softens what people's real feelings are.
00:05:29.980 If you only somewhat approve of someone, you really don't care that much.
00:05:33.080 You should be in the I don't know category because it's unlikely you're going to show up for someone who you just kind of are lukewarm with.
00:05:39.420 That was what was proven out with Aaron O'Toole.
00:05:41.740 It didn't matter if most conservatives would say they liked them.
00:05:44.260 A lot of people didn't show up because somewhat approval is not really strong approval.
00:05:48.660 Anyways, going to this poll, Justin Trudeau, like, and again, look at the numbers back in the day in 2021, when he was still objectively a terrible prime minister.
00:05:58.640 He had moments where he was actually more popular than he was unpopular.
00:06:02.940 These days, since about April of 2022, it's just been liftoff for the disapproval rating.
00:06:09.200 He is currently sitting at a 55% disapproval rating and a 27% approval rate.
00:06:14.360 And the 27% here is very, very key because what you notice is that Justin Trudeau is only ever able to get enough people, as many people to vote liberal as people who approve of him.
00:06:25.980 The Liberal Party's appeal is almost entirely based off what you think of Justin Trudeau.
00:06:31.340 Even if I like peer polio, but even if you don't really love peer polio, you could still see yourself voting conservative.
00:06:36.720 I like the policies, I'm maybe more of a social conservative, or maybe I'm very, like, liberal on social issues, red Tory.
00:06:43.380 And even though, like, peer polio doesn't agree with either of those groups fully, you're willing to vote for them because of your, because of just other values issues that you appreciate.
00:06:51.600 With the Liberal Party, like, what are you voting for?
00:06:53.920 Like, they're going to give you maybe a few more extra benefits.
00:06:56.680 You've already seen all these benefits are effectively poison pills, driving up inflation while giving you almost no value back.
00:07:03.040 Whereas with the Conservative Party, you can like peer polio's personality, he might be a big asset to you, what's driving your vote.
00:07:10.960 At the same time, you also don't have to care about him at all, because Conservative Party members pass great policies at convention, and you're going to show up and support what's going to be in the Conservative Party platform. 0.98
00:07:19.140 That's what the benefit for the Conservative Party, even the NDP, as bad as Jagmeet Singh is, and let me put strong emphasis on bad, I want to make the acronym out of bad, he is boring, annoying, and dumb. 0.95
00:07:34.300 He hits every single aspect of what I would consider a bad politician. 0.95
00:07:38.360 But even with the NDP, as bad as Jagmeet Singh is, at least, you know, workers unions will show up for him, at least crazy university student unions who support Hamas and whatnot, at least they'll show up for him, because, you know, the NDP happens to have a lot of dumb stuff that they like in their platform.
00:07:56.940 But you don't, so you don't have to like Jagmeet Singh, you can like Jagmeet Singh in both form, but with Justin Trudeau, if you don't like him, you're not showing up, even if somehow there's something in the Liberal platform that you like, you're not showing up for Justin Trudeau, because you no longer trust Justin Trudeau.
00:08:10.720 And I just want to pull up the overall projections just to demonstrate how bad this is.
00:08:15.040 Oh, mind the screenshot sound.
00:08:18.280 Sorry, I'm being so unprofessional here.
00:08:19.880 I'm terribly sorry.
00:08:20.600 But, but when I jump up to here, these are just projections, these are not like the literal polls, it's just based on averaging all the polls together, having a having an 11% lead for the conservatives on average, with a lot of pollsters that are very fickle, that sometimes even show the overalls up by 4%, because the sample size from the particular pollster, usually ledger is terrible.
00:08:45.360 But that 11% demonstrates that it's not, again, it's not because Pollyov is winning people in downtown Toronto or Montreal, those places are always liberal.
00:08:55.660 I think the Liberal Party's floor is always going to be around, you know, 23%.
00:09:00.580 At the lowest, it's 23%.
00:09:02.340 Even Michael Ignatieff could scrape together like 19%.
00:09:05.340 We're running the worst campaign on the planet.
00:09:07.220 But notice the Liberals numbers, it's 28%.
00:09:09.560 And then notice Justin Trudeau's approval rate, it's 27%.
00:09:12.420 I think that the Liberal Party is always, for its vote count, is always going to be stuck hovering around Justin Trudeau's approval rating.
00:09:21.140 Whereas when you look at Pierre Pollyov's approval rating, and I'll just quickly go check on that in the Abacus poll, you don't need to see it on, I assume you don't need to see it on screen to believe me.
00:09:30.660 But right now, he's 36% disapproval, 35% approval.
00:09:34.600 Obviously, it's harder to have a high approval as an opposition leader, because the media demonizes you.
00:09:39.320 Not everyone knows your name yet until election time and a lot of other things.
00:09:42.860 But Pierre Pollyov is around 35% approval, and the current Conservative Party is at, you know, I think it's actually 35%.
00:09:50.800 It does track well for this, but I've been checking in on it for months and months and months.
00:09:54.820 When the Conservative Party was at like 42% approval, or in terms of scoring 42% of the polls, Pierre Pollyov could have been down 32%, and it didn't really matter.
00:10:03.940 Even now, he's still outpacing, the party's outpacing him by three or four points.
00:10:08.520 Next week, it could be greater or less.
00:10:11.160 But the whole point is, it doesn't matter what people think of Pierre Pollyov, they will still vote Conservative.
00:10:17.340 Anyways, I just want to quickly end this off by just going back to this chart, because again, it's staggering.
00:10:23.160 The Liberal minority government chance of occurring, the chance that Justin Trudeau will lead another government with the help of either Jagmeet Singh or Yves-Francois Bonachette from the bloc, is less than 1%.
00:10:38.480 Now, I don't expect that the polls are going to stay like this forever.
00:10:42.520 Usually, as soon as an election is called in 2025, you're going to see things tighten up, because people get all silly, and they're like, they forget what they know, and they immediately jump into, well, who's going to win my vote? 0.98
00:10:53.120 Like, no, the Liberals suck. Stop pretending like they can win your vote back. 0.96
00:10:56.460 They're not, they haven't performed well.
00:10:58.460 But with a 1% minority chance, or less than 1% minority chance, I hope that after this next election, the left realizes that people do not want ideology in their government in terms of forceful ideology.
00:11:14.100 The Conservative Party, especially under Pierre Pollyov, is a more ideological Conservative Party.
00:11:18.800 But the great thing, what people like, is that their vision is not ideological, is that we are going to leave you alone, and we're not going to impose our values on you.
00:11:27.200 We are just going to get out of the economy, we're going to get politics out of schools, and the government, and we're going to leave you alone.
00:11:33.160 Because what individual Canadians can achieve is far more important than what the government can achieve.
00:11:38.160 And that's the great thing about giving Justin Trudeau eight years, rather than just four years, is I think that hopefully enough Canadians learn the lesson that you don't actually want the government taking care of things for you.
00:11:49.660 Yes, there's a certain demographic of voters who like the safety blanket of the government doing things for them.
00:11:54.860 But at the end of the day, it's not good for you to have the government do things.
00:11:58.940 And I just want to quickly just mention this too, in the polling of the regions.
00:12:02.540 Imagine that, it's a 40, the Conservatives have 41% in Ontario, the Liberals are at 30.
00:12:09.220 That is an area where I think in 2021, the Liberals won that by three or four points.
00:12:13.520 They have effectively what has taken place is like a 16 point swing.
00:12:16.920 That is horrifying. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Liberals don't exist.
00:12:22.600 Same thing in Alberta, the Liberals do not exist.
00:12:24.820 And in BC, they're fighting over the NDP for who's going to capture more of the vote.
00:12:28.380 Even in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are at 42%.
00:12:32.260 42%. And Abacus tends to be a fairly stable pollster.
00:12:36.200 They don't, ECOS is the bad one where they have super big swings where the Liberals are somehow up 7% in a region they haven't been up in in like a decade and whatnot.
00:12:45.360 But Abacus is usually stable.
00:12:47.580 The Conservatives are up 11% in Atlantic Canada, a place where the Liberals swept every single seat in 2015.
00:12:55.460 That demonstrates to you that there is something that Justin Trudeau has done, or Justin Trudeau assumed that wherever he went, his supporters would follow.
00:13:03.620 And their left is quickly figuring out that's not how it works.
00:13:06.860 And I sincerely doubt they're going to find a way of replacing him by 2025.
00:13:12.040 He's brain-drained the party.
00:13:13.420 There's nobody with an IQ or a charisma score high enough to take, to replace him, to make a D&D reference.
00:13:21.020 Anyways, that should be it for me today.
00:13:22.920 I have my legal fund link in the description of this video below.
00:13:25.860 It'd be fantastic if you could donate to me. 0.98
00:13:28.060 I'm dealing with a Chinese billionaire in court with a very stupid defamation case. 0.99
00:13:32.000 I'm currently winning it. 0.99
00:13:33.140 But obviously, he's just driving me through the court.
00:13:35.920 He's just driving me through the court system in order to punish me because he can't actually beat me.
00:13:40.340 Other than that, also, I have the link to TNT emails in the description of this video as well, as well as my Twitter link.
00:13:48.260 So X, I guess.
00:13:49.380 I still call it Twitter.
00:13:50.380 You can follow me on Twitter there.
00:13:52.080 Make sure to subscribe to the channel.
00:13:53.160 Make sure to like this video.
00:13:54.220 Share this video.
00:13:54.860 Do all that other great, fantastic YouTube stuff.
00:13:57.900 And I heard that we're actually on Rumble now.
00:13:59.580 I was at the protest at Freeland's office in Toronto.
00:14:02.620 And so apparently, someone showed up fantastically.
00:14:05.000 She was great to talk to.
00:14:06.060 She had watched us on Rumble.
00:14:07.440 So I think someone automated, someone in the back end of TNT finally automated us on Rumble, which is great to see.
00:14:13.520 And if someone's just stealing our videos and posting them to Rumble, well, I can't complain because I wasn't doing it in the first place.
00:14:19.140 So other than that, hope everyone has a great day.
00:14:21.680 See you guys next time.