The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 05, 2023


Trudeau In Trouble： Some of The Worst MPs May Lose Reelection

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Jagmeet Singh Justin Trudeau Mark Gerritsen Charlie Angus Blake Desjardins Erin O'Toole Edmonton Greaseback Calgary Skyview George Chahal Kim Campbell Jack Layton Ben Shapiro Kelly Dodd James Bay Papineau Carleton Pierre Lynn
Justin Trudeau's Scam Economy in Canada Liberal Media Getting Desperate As Pierre Poilievre Moves Towards Beating Justin Trudeau

Episode Stats


Length

8 minutes

Words per minute

201.14

Word count

1,712

Sentence count

80

Harmful content

Toxicity

3

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

As more polling data comes out, everything just keeps getting worse for Justin Trudeau. A new polling projection from 338 Canada now shows a 98% chance that the Tories will win the next election, and a 2% chance at a minority government.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 As more polling data comes out, everything just keeps getting worse for Justin Trudeau.
00:00:04.780 A new polling projection just came out from 338 Canada that now shows that there's a 98% chance that the Conservatives will win the most seats after the next election, and that the Liberals only have a 2% chance at a minority government.
00:00:18.120 And even then, I don't think that it's realistic that the Liberals could even get close to getting a minority government this time.
00:00:23.660 The 2% really just represents that in some crazy world, if every single poll is significantly favoring the Conservatives in a dramatic way, maybe the Liberals could win with high turnout numbers, and I really doubt they're going to be able to have high turnout numbers.
00:00:39.340 If you remember, I made a video about a month ago that sort of talked about why I think that the Liberals, without even talking about the polls, can't win.
00:00:46.580 And the reason is because their donation numbers are also awful.
00:00:49.920 The Conservatives in the past three quarters have been literally doubling the Liberals' fundraising numbers, and sometimes it's even more than doubling it.
00:00:59.300 So the problem is for the Liberals is that when you are both polling badly and you do not have money, you are not going to be able to pay for good quality campaigns.
00:01:09.640 You're not going to be able to get people out to vote.
00:01:11.260 And what I think Justin Trudeau is doing now is he's just trying to hold on to as many seats as he can, try and keep his legacy from looking like Kim Campbell, you know, getting completely smashed and falling below maybe like 70 seats.
00:01:24.180 I think that's what he's trying to do.
00:01:25.980 And I think Jagmeet Singh with the NDP is simply trying to hold on and not make it look like he's made the NDP completely irrelevant.
00:01:33.040 But why I wanted to make this video today was because the absolute glory of seeing so many just awful left-wing MPs now at risk of losing their seats.
00:01:44.020 So I'll start off with just Alberta.
00:01:45.700 I'm not going to bring this up on screen because it's a little bit tedious to do.
00:01:48.460 But in Edmonton Grisbach, we have Blake Desjardins who beat Kelly Diot back in 2021 because of, frankly, the bad leadership of Aaron O'Toole.
00:01:56.860 Blake Desjardins now has a very good chance of losing his seat.
00:01:59.860 It's about a 50-50 chance that he even holds on to it, even though it's a very easy seat for an NDP to hold on to.
00:02:06.420 We have Calgary Skyview with porch pyre George Chahal.
00:02:09.560 He is now behind in all the projections with about a 50-50 chance there for him, too.
00:02:15.420 But he's probably not going to be able to win that one if the Liberals are going to be tight with spending.
00:02:19.920 And then we have even – I want to move on to – I want to save that one.
00:02:23.500 I just looked that up for later.
00:02:24.940 But we have Kingston on the Islands, Mark Gerritsen, the sweaty water buffalo of Parliament.
00:02:32.340 He now is in a literal three-way tie between the Conservatives and the NDP.
00:02:37.300 A rioting in the last couple of terms that he won fairly handily.
00:02:41.400 And now he's actually struggling to hold on to as the person who literally used to be the former mayor of Kingston.
00:02:47.000 That really demonstrates to me how annoying Mark Gerritsen is that his own people are no longer even reliable voters of him.
00:02:55.280 They just want him gone for at least a large percentage of people because he's the type of guy who could win over 40-50% of the vote previously.
00:03:03.780 Anyways, then we even have Timmons James Bay with NDP MP Charlie Angus.
00:03:09.200 He is now in a position where he only has a 75% chance to win.
00:03:13.740 And this is a rioting where Charlie Angus has sometimes won 53% of the vote.
00:03:19.420 He has won a majority of the vote in a parliamentary system with multiple parties.
00:03:23.700 And now he's in a position where he might lose and only have about 35% of the vote and the Conservatives are going to win his rioting.
00:03:30.120 And before I move on to the last one, the reason I think this is happening, and every once in a while you'll have an eccentric Conservative MP or someone who maybe the public doesn't quite like a lot.
00:03:41.580 But the difference between a bad Conservative MP and a bad left-wing MP is a bad left-wing MP from the Liberals or the NDP or the Greens, they talk about things that don't matter to people.
00:03:53.800 And I think that once that person also makes themselves a pariah the way that Charlie Angus and Mark Gerritsen have through their just whining in Parliament through the very catty sort of like videos that they release on social media that, you know, doesn't actually serve the public interest in any way other than, you know, clout chasing on social media.
00:04:11.080 I think that what happens is that a lot of left-wing MPs end up really alienating their base of people because they don't actually serve any of their interests and then they don't even have the decency to be respectable.
00:04:22.100 Usually a more eccentric Conservative MP is at least wanting to vote the right way.
00:04:27.120 They're at least going to lower your taxes and leave you alone.
00:04:29.800 That's kind of the great thing about a lot of more right-wing parties is that you don't even have to like the people representing you because they're going to mostly leave you alone and give you your own money back.
00:04:40.120 But this is not the case with a lot of these left-wing people.
00:04:42.900 And the prime example of this is Burnaby South, which I'm not sure if you know is Jagmeet Singh's riding, which has actually now become somewhat vulnerable because it could be, you know, it could be taken out because of a three-way vote split between the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals.
00:05:00.560 And again, this is not an especially, you know, safe seat for a leader to be sitting in.
00:05:07.060 Usually your leader is in like absolutely a high castle somewhere where they could never be beat.
00:05:11.860 It's like, you know, it's Justin Trudeau and Papineau.
00:05:14.880 It's frankly, actually, Pierre is actually not that safe of a seat, but they just like him around there.
00:05:20.440 But, you know, even his area of Ottawa, Carleton is actually pretty safe these days whenever another Conservative leader, like when O'Toole was in Durham, that was an extremely safe seat.
00:05:30.960 Jack Layton always represented an extremely safe seat.
00:05:33.720 It's just something that usually happens.
00:05:36.140 The leader is always in the safest seat just so that they don't have to worry about campaigning.
00:05:40.480 But when Jagmeet Singh was getting into federal politics, he needed to find an area where there was going to be a by-election held where he could realistically win.
00:05:49.140 The problem with Burnaby South, although it's been NDP for decades, it's always been NDP on a knife's edge for decades, where the NDP might have an 8% margin of victory, but there's some elections there where there was only 2% margin, some were at 12%.
00:06:02.980 There's a lot of flux because of the sort of vote competition between the Liberals, NDP, and Conservatives.
00:06:09.560 And then you have the Green usually acting as a bit of a spoiler.
00:06:11.960 They're being able to grab up 9% of the vote.
00:06:14.140 It's not exactly a very safe place.
00:06:16.700 And I think that most Canadians have just not grown to like Jagmeet Singh.
00:06:21.940 And I think a lot of the people in Burnaby South, which is kind of a more of a granola conservative riding where people will vote left because of sort of different, you know, economic benefits that usually come from the left-wing parties for smaller cities and whatnot.
00:06:36.320 They'll vote for that.
00:06:37.180 But I think that they resent the fact that Jagmeet Singh doesn't actually care about the riding, barely hangs out there.
00:06:42.720 And he also does not share any of the social values, which tends to be more conservative in the riding of Burnaby South.
00:06:52.840 So he's actually in a position right now where his chances of winning are only 77%. 0.97
00:06:57.180 So that's pretty pathetic. 0.75
00:07:01.440 There's a 19% chance the Conservatives will win and a 4% chance the Liberals will win. 0.95
00:07:07.220 And like I said with the funding, the fundraising, the NDP has even worse fundraising numbers, obviously, than the Liberals.
00:07:13.580 So I could see this being a riding where unless Jagmeet Singh actually campaigns really hard in his own riding,
00:07:17.980 it could slip away just from the people of Burnaby South not wanting to be, you know, left behind in a conservative majority government.
00:07:24.880 They actually would maybe want to be representative of that government.
00:07:27.580 And Jagmeet Singh is already a bad representative, but they're like, after the next race, he probably won't be a bad representative that's even part of a coalition government.
00:07:37.300 He's just going to be some irrelevant MP that nobody needs to care about.
00:07:41.040 So I think that's what I wanted to highlight today.
00:07:43.920 It's not just that the Liberals are going to go down to defeat, it's that the worst Liberal and NDP candidates are probably also going to lose,
00:07:52.200 which is, I don't know, makes this a holiday just to think about.
00:07:56.260 But anyways, that's it for me today.
00:07:57.640 I have my give send go in the description below.
00:07:59.820 I'm just in a crazy legal battle with a billionaire from China and whatever.
00:08:04.260 I'm going to win this defamation case, but it's just annoying and really saps my financial resources.
00:08:09.620 So if you can donate there, that'd be fantastic.
00:08:11.920 Also, there's going to be a Ben Shapiro event happening in Calgary in November, and the National Telegraph will be releasing early bird ticket codes.
00:08:19.440 So if you want to, you know, if you want to be able to get those early bird ticket codes to be able to get tickets early, sign up at the TNT email list below,
00:08:26.780 and I'll be sending out an email with the ticket codes a part of it.
00:08:30.120 Have a great day, Lynn.