Trudeau is projected to lose his own riding! Rumours he will resign
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
175.52124
Summary
The real reason why Justin Trudeau won't step down as Liberal Party Leader is because he doesn't want to be like Kim Campbell and lose his own riding while being the Prime Minister. If he stops being Prime Minister, he has a much better chance of winning re-election.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I think I've discovered the real reason as to why Prime
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Minister Justin Trudeau is digging in his heels so hard, refusing to step down as the Liberal
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Party leader. And like him, the reason is very petty and small. Trudeau is not delusional enough
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to think that if he stays on as the Liberal leader, that the Liberal Party is going to be
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able to win the next federal election. I really don't think it matters who the Liberal Party
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leader is. People hate the brand at this point because they first hated Justin Trudeau, and he
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has become the Liberal Party brand, even if Chrystia Freeland, Chrystia Clark, or anyone else takes over
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for him. Anyways, but I think it's all because the reason he's not stepping down is he doesn't want
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to be like Kim Campbell and lose his own riding while being the Prime Minister. If he stops being
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Prime Minister, there is actually a much better chance he's not able to win re-election, because
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the leader tends to have a certain aura around them. If you're a supporter of their party living
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in the riding, or maybe even you're an undecided voter, well, why don't we get out of the house and
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go vote for the Prime Minister? It feels important to do. And so if Trudeau stops being the Liberal
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Party leader and Prime Minister, well, what is he at this point to the voters in Papineau, a riding that
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I believe the provincial ridings within it often do not go liberal. And so Trudeau is sticking on
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just because he will probably resign after the next election anyways. But he at least doesn't
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want to be the guy who had to resign from office fearing that he wouldn't be re-elected. He wants
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to be re-elected and then choose to step down and not become Kim Campbell. Let's go over some of the
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projections on the projection websites, because these things are pretty nasty for the Prime Minister
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right now. This is the percent chance that 338 Canada gives to him right now. And even 338 Canada,
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I believe has been over projecting the Liberals by a bit. So he has a 74% chance of winning re-election
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in Papineau, a riding in Montreal. That is insane that he could even lose this riding. But Justin
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Trudeau has made it happen. And if we go to the final vote projections, they show it being a victory
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for Trudeau, but only of 3% above the NDP at 30. The Bloc coming in with 18% and the Conservatives
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with 11. That sounds weird to many of you who don't live in Quebec. I don't live in Quebec. But if you
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follow the election results in Quebec, it makes sense. The Conservatives only got 4% last time in Papineau
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back in 2021. And it's just because Montreal is just not a Conservative place. There isn't even a Conservative
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Party with an actual seat in Quebec provincial politics. It's either Quebec nationalists or it's
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hyper-metropolitan liberals or other sorts of like socialist trade unionists. And Justin Trudeau
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is very much on that metropolitan bent right now, except Quebec is not having a metropolitan
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progressive phase. It's having a very nationalistic phase right now. And Justin Trudeau is completely out
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of step with it. But the thing is that the 11% they're projecting for the Conservatives here
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is very good. Remember, they got 4% last time. So this would be almost tripling what their vote was.
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And I think, and Pauly of the Conservatives should do this, I think they should just absolutely slam his
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riding with door knockers and try and pump up that Conservative vote as much as you can. Go to every
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Anglo voter in the riding, get them to vote Conservative. Yes, we're not going to win. We're going to come
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fourth place. But we can trip up Trudeau enough to make sure that he loses his own riding. Because
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Trudeau, despite the fact that in Western Canada, he is seen as a big shill for Quebec, in Quebec,
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he is more pro-Anglo than many of the bloc-type politicians would be or Francois Legault. And so
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if the Conservatives can rip away Anglo voters, that's actually a big part of Justin Trudeau's winning
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coalition in that riding. And notice if you ever look at the electoral history of Papineau,
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Trudeau's never won that riding by a massive margin. It is a very divided riding. And it's going
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to be a very divided riding with very unmotivated liberal voters. Justin Trudeau usually wins it
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with 50% of the vote, which isn't that much considering all the polling growth that all the
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other parties have had in Montreal since then. Especially if the Conservatives become very competitive
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in Mount Royal. I guarantee that is going to have a trickling effect into the other ridings and make
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it a very unlivable place for the Liberals to be. Because it's going to be a referendum in Montreal.
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Do you like the Liberals or do you not? And over 50% of the population, for the most part,
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is already against the Liberals. How much more can Trudeau lose without actually getting thrown out of
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office? Now let's go check out on the website of Polywave, run by Sherey Attiste on Twitter. He does a
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very good job. He has made the more hawkish predictions that the Liberals were going to lose
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in Toronto-St. Paul and they were going to lose in LaSalle-Amard-Verdon, also in Montreal riding.
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Those did happen and he was like one of the only polling projectionists to actually show the Liberals
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losing. He actually shows Justin Trudeau currently losing right now to the NDP, 31 to 30 with the block
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grabbing 22% of the vote. Now I would still personally probably advantage Trudeau in this race
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as it currently stands, but it's because he is the Prime Minister. He can rip more resources into his
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riding. He can relocate more volunteers into Papineau to make sure that he doesn't go down. But again,
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if he stops being the Prime Minister, which is not completely unlikely, he will become a who cares kind
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of a politician. But maybe we all might want Trudeau to stick around and keep being the Prime Minister
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because wouldn't it be funny that he runs the next election as the Prime Minister and ends up losing
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his own riding? I think that would be fairly cathartic, even though I'm one of these people
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who advocates that Trudeau probably should step down because I want to normalize politicians stepping
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down when they suck at their jobs. Anyways though, now let's move on to talking about Gerald
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Butts who has wormed his way back into Canadian politics to let us all know that he also thinks
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that Justin Trudeau is basically dead at this point. So in a Substack article he released, he went over
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what the current leadership crisis is shaping up to look like. And a lot of people are quoting him like
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No Cartier here from the Epoch Times. And this is grabbing quotes from the Substack, which is enough for
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us to read today. Gerald Butts, who used to be the top advisor for Trudeau, actually said,
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if, as is now widely expected, Mr. Trudeau's resignation is imminent, the only way forward
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is a real leadership race. So Justin Trudeau's former top advisor and confidant does not think
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he's actually going to be staying on as Prime Minister, which great news for all of us. But the
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only thing I have to say right now is, what do you gain by throwing in Christia Freeland, or Mark
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Carney, or I don't know who else, like Anita Anand, Christy Clark, my goodness, what do you gain as the
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Liberal Party by having these people slotted in? Again, Justin Trudeau has become the Liberal Party
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brand. And putting in a new leader does not make the Liberal Party brand now Dominic LeBlanc,
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it's not be not like the Dominic LeBlanc party. Have you seen how insane Trudeau-anon type
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Liberal simps online are? They are not going to stop voting Liberal unless Trudeau goes away,
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because their entire ego and personalities are currently based on Trudeau being the leader.
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If he goes away, a similar cult is not going to pop up for Melanie Jolie or Philippe Champagne.
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It's just not. I'm sorry. Anyways, that's pretty much it for me today. But I do want to cover another
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tweet from the PPC, because every once in a while, I got to slam the PPC here and there for being
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absolutely incompetent. But before I get to this last part, guys, if you like the show, make sure to
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hit that subscribe button, like the video, leave a comment. I'll do all that great stuff. It really
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helps me out in the algorithm. So this is Patricia Conlon, who's run in the riding of Durham in the
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past three elections, I believe. She even ran in the by-election against Jamil Giovanni in Durham.
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And for some reason, she posted this, and I want to talk about why this is why nobody votes for the
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PPC. I voted for them in 2021. They have just become the childish online party, people who are
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permanently online and are also smarter than you and know better. She says, does anyone understand
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why she did this post? Things seem to be falling apart for the Polyev family. Okay, now seriously
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consider what do you think she is reacting to? It's a tweet from Anita Polyev, Pierre Polyev's wife.
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And so what was she reacting to? What was the big thing going on here that required her to respond and
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speculate? Are they going to get divorced? Is some family matter happening right now?
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It's Anita Polyev responding to Tlaib Nur-Muhammad being a stupid woke scold. Tlaib Nur-Muhammad
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said, where is the conservative outrage at the lack of Christmas trees, Santa, Jesus, and a nativity or
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anything remotely related to Christmas? Asking for a friend. And this is the Christmas card that the
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Polyevs put out, which everyone's like, or at least liberals are like, oh my goodness, why are there
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pumpkins in the background? It's like, it's pretty standard that people take their Christmas card
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photos like months before actual Christmas, because it makes it easier. And Anita Polyev to this said,
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Merry Christmas from my children and me. Here's to the year ahead where Canadians come together to put
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Canada first, to be able to afford a roof over their heads, food on the table, and live in safe streets.
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I don't see how this is a bad post or indicative of literally anything negative. She's just kind of
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dunking on Tlaib, who is obviously trying to create some row over literally nothing, and she wishes
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him Merry Christmas and talks about how the conservatives are going to crush people like him in the next
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election. Patricia Conlin, get a hold of yourself. Again, on top of the fact that the PPC does not
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actually try in elections, they don't doorknock, and they are endlessly smug on social media, it's also the fact
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that they go for a lot of low blows, especially at times when they're completely undeserved.
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Yeah, okay, maybe conservatives every once in a while can be too soft or something like that, and I
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could agree on certain policies. I wish the conservatives were more conservative, but the PPC just
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like being smart mouths online is not doing them absolutely any favors whatsoever. It's wild looking
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at the sort of people that Maxime Bernier will retweet, like literally just terminally online,
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perennial posters who just post about everything all the time, Purple Wave, 2025 Bernier. It's like,
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guys, it's not happening. Go out and try, rather than being smug on Twitter. This is the same lady,
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Patricia Conlin, because of the fame of the Polly of Apple video. She shot her own really cringy
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version of it with the failed comedian Greg Wycliffe. Be something more than just conservative reply guys
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and gals. Stop making your entire personality based on the fact that, you know, I'm more conservative
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than pure Polly. Well, you don't work hard, so I don't know. You don't really exhibit the conservative
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of working class values that helped build this country. The people who would go out and work
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when it was negative 20 outside. You seem to be, I don't know, a lazy malcontent on the internet,
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not a real political option. Be a real political option or please go away. I'm not even saying
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the PPC should go away because I'm threatened by them. I don't want them beating, like hurting
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Polly ever, whatever. I want you guys to stick around if you try. If you don't try, it's an insult
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to democracy. It's just watching people slap their names on ballots like they're a bunch of like
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perennial, like rhinoceros party candidates. My goodness. Anyways, so that's it for me today,
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guys. Mini rant there at the end. Again, subscribe to the channel, like this video, and if you want to
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financially support us, you can always donate to the Give, Send, Go legal fund in the description below,
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as well as pinned at the top of the comments. Also, if you want my recommendation for nomination races
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