The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 24, 2023


Trudeau Knows Poilievre Is Destroying Him


Episode Stats

Length

20 minutes

Words per Minute

202.14758

Word Count

4,173

Sentence Count

244

Misogynist Sentences

1


Summary

In this episode of the podcast, I talk about the importance of not using polling to predict who's going to be Prime Minister in the next election, and why you should be focusing on the narratives of the election, rather than the polling numbers.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 I've done this before, but I want to do it again today. And that is talking about the 2025 Canadian federal election without reference to polling. Obviously, if we look at the polling today, pure poly of the Conservatives are simply going to win. They have 16% leads in some of the polls, anywhere from 8% to 16%. It's a complete walkover for the Conservatives.
00:00:21.700 But I think that it just leads to lazy thinking. If we just look at the polling number and say, oh, the Conservatives are higher, they're going to win the election, or the NDP is higher in this provincial election, they're going to win. What you really want to focus on is the narratives of the election. What are people talking about way ahead of the election? Because that can even be more telling of who's likely to win.
00:00:43.060 Because obviously, when the federal election gets called, like every election, the poll is going to tighten up because people get it in their minds that, oh, I have to be much more careful with who I'm going to vote for.
00:00:52.600 No, now I have to reconsider, even though their gut instinct is probably to vote for the party that they know is not going to screw anything up. And that's the Conservatives these days.
00:01:00.380 But as soon as the election is called, a bunch of people are going to start reconsidering that the Liberals or the NDP can win their votes, even though, like, on policy issues, obviously, they've only been terrible.
00:01:10.300 But right now, in terms of the narrative of this next election, you can tell who's going to win based on who everyone is going to talk about.
00:01:19.220 And one rule of thumb, the one of the most important rules of thumb, is that in an election, if you're talking about the opposition leader, that's probably going to be the next Prime Minister of Canada.
00:01:28.680 How many elections do we have where we just talk about the person who is not the incumbent, and that person ends up losing?
00:01:35.720 It's extremely rare, and unless they have a lot of character flaws that people didn't know about that you needed to talk about in order to bring it to light,
00:01:44.240 usually, if you're talking about the opposition leader, it's because you know that they're clearly in the lead.
00:01:49.300 And this is what the NDP, what the Liberals, and obviously what the PPC is doing these days, is that they won't shut up about pure poly of, and just the Conservatives in general.
00:01:58.800 And it's so self-defeating, and I honestly, I understand the idea, like I'm a Conservative, so I do talk like I'm trying to help the Liberals,
00:02:07.120 but it's just from the strategic point of view what you should be doing.
00:02:11.000 But from the Liberal perspective, by continually talking about the opposition leader, you're just giving him name recognition,
00:02:18.000 you're just making him seem like a real contender for the Prime Ministership,
00:02:21.420 and you're just moving him up in people's rankings of who they might vote for when they might have been potentially default Liberal or NDP voters today,
00:02:30.360 but they keep hearing about this pure poly of a guy, so he can't be all that bad, or at least he's a deeply important person.
00:02:35.920 Whereas if you stop talking about him, they might fade into the background, nobody cares.
00:02:40.660 That's what happened to Aaron O'Toole.
00:02:42.160 Nobody talked about him, nobody cared who Aaron O'Toole was.
00:02:45.040 So once the election rolled around, the few smear ads against Aaron O'Toole worked really well because people didn't really know anything about him,
00:02:52.060 so they're just going to probably take the first commercial they see about him at face value because, well, no one really wants to go look up who Aaron O'Toole is.
00:02:59.940 He was really boring, so if the unions are going to say he hates Labour or whatever,
00:03:04.600 and the Liberals are going to say he's a crazy gun person or whatever, they'll believe it even though he threw gun owners under the bus.
00:03:11.840 That was the disadvantage of not being talked about for Aaron O'Toole.
00:03:15.620 But you can't do the same thing to pure poly of because he has defined himself,
00:03:19.100 and as the Liberals keep talking about him, they keep making him more interesting and keep raising his profile,
00:03:23.340 keep making more people follow him on social media, and keep making more people think,
00:03:27.420 well, this guy could be a Prime Minister.
00:03:28.940 This is the problem between the 2011 Conservative Party advertising and the 2015 Conservative Party advertising.
00:03:36.240 The brilliant nature of the 2011 Conservative Party advertising was the whole Michael Ignatieff just visiting ads.
00:03:43.920 The great thing about that is it never made you think for a second that Michael Ignatieff could actually be Prime Minister.
00:03:49.000 It made you think he's going to lose, he's going to go down to a resounding defeat, and he's going to go back to the US.
00:03:55.020 That was a great ad because it never for once made you think that Michael Ignatieff was Prime Minister material.
00:04:00.080 Now, the 2015 ad, the Justin Trudeau's Just Not Ready ads that the Harper campaign was running were horrible,
00:04:06.960 and it was for the reason that that ad, even if it concludes at the end that he's just not ready to be Prime Minister,
00:04:12.720 you've effectively said, well, at some point he's going to be ready, so why not vote for him now and he'll grow into it.
00:04:17.860 The subtle implications of the ad are, it's not actually that bad of a vote for Justin Trudeau.
00:04:22.220 We just don't think he's quite ready.
00:04:23.700 The Conservatives should just, the Conservatives, even though people mocked them for the ads about Justin Trudeau basically being this very, like, I don't know,
00:04:33.640 soft, unserious, almost Ken-like character, they should have stuck to that.
00:04:39.300 Even though people mocked them, it's better just to mock your opponent rather than seriously present them as an option for Prime Minister.
00:04:46.460 It's foolish.
00:04:47.160 And I'll just bring up some of the Liberal posts because the Liberals are competing, are replicating the Conservative mistakes from 2015.
00:04:54.820 When they're comparing Conservatives, they're saying, pure polyethonist Conservatives are working hard to bring American-style far-right politics to Canada.
00:05:02.300 These tactics are reckless and irresponsible.
00:05:04.400 He's not working worth the risk.
00:05:07.440 And they're comparing people like Michael Cooper to, like, Ron DeSantis,
00:05:11.000 and they were comparing other politicians to Lauren Boebert and Ted Cruz and Donald Trump and whatnot.
00:05:17.100 And the problem with comparing them to these people is that those are successful politicians.
00:05:23.180 Ron DeSantis is incredibly successful in Florida.
00:05:25.980 And regardless of what you think about Donald Trump, the man is, the man was president.
00:05:30.800 Like, so you're comparing the Conservatives to people who are presidential material,
00:05:34.500 for people who are, like, governors and senators.
00:05:37.420 Don't do that.
00:05:37.980 It's a stupid thing to do.
00:05:39.560 And as much as I think that Lauren Boebert and certain Republicans are clowns because of their poor behavior,
00:05:45.160 don't compare people to successful politicians.
00:05:47.860 Compare them to unsuccessful politicians.
00:05:49.940 That's a far smarter thing to do.
00:05:51.620 If anything, and I'm not trying to be rude, I'd compare Pierre Polyev.
00:05:55.200 Like, I like Pierre Polyev.
00:05:56.320 But if I was a Liberal or an MVP strategist, I'd start comparing them to Maxime Bernier.
00:06:01.220 Hey, you guys didn't like Maxime Bernier the last, like, two elections.
00:06:04.760 So why would you vote for Pierre?
00:06:05.940 He's just like Maxime Bernier.
00:06:07.980 A stupid point to make.
00:06:09.360 It's inaccurate.
00:06:11.100 But it would actually maybe be slightly effective.
00:06:14.000 But comparing them to successful American politicians, as many Canadians as there are out there who like to believe that Canada's, like, you know, best quality is not being America.
00:06:24.040 As many as their people are out there, I don't think that that many people are just going to see that you're comparing them to American politicians.
00:06:30.740 No, I hate America.
00:06:32.100 They must be terrible.
00:06:33.400 Because they see that you're really just comparing them to successful politicians.
00:06:36.880 Even if they don't like these politicians, they're thinking, well, the Liberals seem to scare these people because they can actually win.
00:06:42.760 But it doesn't actually say anything bad about them.
00:06:45.740 It's just saying that they're, like, you know, far right, which is a word that's been so undermined in this meeting that nobody really reacts to it anymore.
00:06:52.900 Anyways, another one.
00:06:53.960 The Apple video from Pure Poly was brilliant.
00:06:55.980 I actually almost just want to play the start of it again because I have it saved here on here.
00:06:59.980 But the Liberals won't stop talking about it.
00:07:02.060 But it's this video right here.
00:07:04.680 On the topic, I mean, in terms of your sort of strategy currently, you're obviously taking the populist pathway.
00:07:12.780 What does that mean?
00:07:14.980 Well, obviously, I don't need to play that anymore.
00:07:19.040 You all kind of recognize the video.
00:07:20.580 At least I've probably jogged your memory.
00:07:23.080 Also, playing that video gave me a fantastic opportunity to have a sip of coffee.
00:07:27.280 But the Liberals will not shut up about this video.
00:07:29.960 I don't know why.
00:07:31.020 It's a stupid thing to do.
00:07:32.340 But it all started off with this clip, this video right here that they re-edited of Pure Poly of saying, well, I never really talk about left or right.
00:07:40.520 And then they edit in, like, four times where, like, Pure Poly of has referenced the far left in Canada, which doesn't actually prove their point.
00:07:49.180 He just said he doesn't really talk about left and right politics.
00:07:52.020 But the Liberals, for some reason, stepped on this rake.
00:07:56.580 That was an incredibly viral clip of Pure Poly of.
00:07:59.500 And they thought it was a great idea to amplify it even more by trying to cherry pick a couple of things that might not be 100 percent accurate in the video.
00:08:08.180 And they didn't stop there.
00:08:09.680 They also played this other one where they were talking about how conservative math is by, you know, slashing, like, revenue or, like, money from the federal budget that we're saving money.
00:08:21.700 And then they go down this rabbit hole of they're actually they're cutting services.
00:08:25.320 So you're going to have to spend more or whatever.
00:08:27.480 Just conspiratorial nonsense from the Liberals that the conservatives are going to cut your grandmother's Social Security and they're going to stop roads from being built.
00:08:35.400 Other rather than, you know, cutting worthless HR and DEI stuff in government.
00:08:40.280 You know, the biggest growth in government under the Liberals has been HR, just people filing paperwork that nobody's ever going to read in their entire lives.
00:08:48.740 But they get six figures a year to do it.
00:08:51.400 That's what the conservatives are proposing to cut.
00:08:54.320 And by continuing to amplify this viral video from from Pierre Polyev, they're only hurting themselves because it gives the conservatives fantastic opportunities to keep resharing their clip because it continues to be relevant.
00:09:07.840 But it doesn't just stop there.
00:09:09.400 The Liberals also keep talking about Pierre Polyev in the cutting of Canadian support for Canadians.
00:09:15.640 The problem is, is that too many Canadians right now are very well aware that the federal budget is bloated, that the deficit spending is toxic for the Canadian economy and inflation is being made in Ottawa.
00:09:28.220 Inflation isn't being made by grocery giants.
00:09:30.740 They can bring in grocery CEOs all day long, Galen Weston to yell at him and say he's ripping off Canadians.
00:09:36.740 No Canadian actually believes that the grocery stores are printing money and causing inflation to increase.
00:09:42.000 Yet the Liberals keep talking about it, thinking that somehow they're going to convince you that the conservatives get in.
00:09:48.080 They're just going to cut like every single thing that you hold dear in the Canadian government.
00:09:52.420 They're going to cut the RCMP.
00:09:53.820 They're going to get rid of the Canadian Armed Forces.
00:09:56.260 They're going to get rid of Social Security and health care.
00:09:59.020 Obviously, that's not true.
00:10:01.200 No, the conservatives aren't just anti-spending.
00:10:03.620 They're anti-deficit spending and spending on nonsense.
00:10:07.040 But the Liberals, even though they can call conservatives conspiratorial, every single election, the Liberals, as well as the Liberals in the media, always pretend like there's even a chance that the conservatives are going to cut vital services in Canada.
00:10:20.860 They're not going to do it, but that's just their line of thinking.
00:10:23.660 But again, it's a terrible marketing for them, not only because they won't stop talking about Pierre Polyev and raising his profile, but they keep bringing attention to issues that the conservatives are actually doing very well on.
00:10:34.560 Government spending cuts are actually fairly popular in Canada right now.
00:10:38.460 People, the top issues in the country, I think I saw in Angus Reeple, it's inflation, it's jobs, and it's the economy in general.
00:10:45.280 The conservatives have anywhere from a 10 to 24 point lead on those issues over Justin Trudeau.
00:10:51.180 I saw it was an abacus data poll where like Justin Trudeau, of course, leads a little bit on environment and childcare stuff.
00:10:57.040 And on taxes, Pierre Polyev's on like a plus 24 lead over Trudeau.
00:11:01.180 They should be shutting up about these spending issues because everyone has actually, frankly, gotten sick of the amount of waste in government.
00:11:09.340 Anyways, but the funniest example of the Liberals not being able to stop talking about Pierre Polyev is Mark Gerritsen cutting this awful video where he effectively whines about Pierre Polyev showing up to question period or just sort of showing up to Parliament.
00:11:24.140 There was some parliamentary business going on in the House chamber.
00:11:26.420 And Pierre Polyev shows up and while Mark Gerritsen is asking a completely foolish question about the environment or the economy, it was dumb.
00:11:34.480 It was a dumb Mark Gerritsen question that Pierre Polyev starts heckling him.
00:11:39.460 And Mark Gerritsen makes this however long video, this two minute and 20 second video, like crying about the fact that Pierre Polyev showed up and started heckling him.
00:11:48.540 If anything, that made Pierre Polyev seem cool.
00:11:51.240 He's the leader of the opposition.
00:11:52.360 He doesn't have to show up, yet he is cool enough to show up to the House chamber just for the express purpose of making fun of Mark Gerritsen, the sweaty water buffalo of Parliament.
00:12:02.120 Mark Gerritsen is trying so desperately to get into Trudeau's cabinet.
00:12:06.460 He will do anything.
00:12:07.840 He will lick anyone's shoes clean to make sure he can secure even the lowest cabinet position ever.
00:12:13.720 The man is probably going to lose his seat.
00:12:16.040 I think I saw the latest projections.
00:12:17.500 I think it's like tied 36-36 in the 338 projections in Kingston and the islands with the Conservatives being slightly favored in a riding where I can believe his dad used to hold a riding and he used to be the mayor of Kingston.
00:12:31.020 That's how much everyone's annoyed with Mark Gerritsen.
00:12:34.020 The last election, I think he won with like 55% of the vote.
00:12:37.160 It is a walkover riding that he potentially can win, sorry, lose.
00:12:41.640 Yeah, like Mark Gerritsen could lose Kingston and the islands simply because he is so annoying.
00:12:46.100 At one point, he even implied that he wanted to fight Kevin Vong for disagreeing with him on Chinese interference.
00:12:52.520 He's a nut.
00:12:54.040 But whatever.
00:12:54.740 But this is the liberal strategy.
00:12:57.060 Just keep talking about Piropolev and hopefully everyone hates his guts.
00:13:00.280 They don't understand that talking about the opposition leader is so stupid.
00:13:04.460 The opposition leader often doesn't have more than 50% name recognition before the federal election starts.
00:13:10.180 And right now, I guarantee Piropolev is probably around 70% or 80% name recognition.
00:13:13.880 He was already a popular politician before he became leader.
00:13:17.080 And now he's effectively been made like ascendant for the prime ministership because Justin Trudeau won't stop talking about the possibility of Piropolev being the prime minister.
00:13:26.040 I say Trudeau by us being the liberal party in general.
00:13:29.120 But do not doubt that every single piece of strategy is approved by Justin Trudeau.
00:13:33.800 The man has his hands on everything.
00:13:35.320 That's why the current liberal party polling at 24% to 27% always tracks extremely closely with Justin Trudeau's approval rating.
00:13:44.560 Because people do not see a difference between the liberal party and the Canadian government and Justin Trudeau personally.
00:13:49.880 They know everything that happens is because of Justin Trudeau.
00:13:53.160 He tells ministers what to do and they carry it out to the T or they're fired.
00:13:56.800 Anyways, I want to kind of slowly start ending this video off by talking about the People's Party of Canada.
00:14:03.920 Because if there's a party that they should just call themselves the Miss Opportunity Party.
00:14:07.840 Again, I'm a conservative.
00:14:08.880 I support the conservatives.
00:14:10.320 But I even voted once for the PPC because I just didn't like Aaron O'Toole very much.
00:14:14.700 And frankly, he's being a bit of a turd to me and the National Telegraph behind the scenes.
00:14:19.440 So, but whatever.
00:14:21.860 But like, so I've been friendly to them.
00:14:24.220 I've even given them a little bit of advice here and there on if they want to grow their party.
00:14:28.140 And we've written articles about them.
00:14:29.940 We've been perfectly nice, just like all other Canadian independent media, has been perfectly nice to the PPC.
00:14:35.600 The PPC is not growing because they do not seem to want to grow.
00:14:39.440 They do not do.
00:14:40.120 I literally was in a Twitter space at some point back when Twitter was still called Twitter.
00:14:44.040 Where I was talking to PPC organizers and they were all getting mad at me because I said that the PPC didn't have the ability to grow.
00:14:51.300 And at one point while they were yelling at me, I said, have you ever doorknocked in your life?
00:14:55.080 And they said, I've never doorknocked because I've never had my mind change the door.
00:14:58.920 And it's like, oh goodness, you sweet summer child.
00:15:02.140 Please just go out and doorknock for a campaign and learn what people sound like at the door.
00:15:07.180 The PPC does not grow because they think that the average person talks and thinks the way that the average person on social media does.
00:15:15.600 Not that many people talk about politics on social media and even fewer talk about it in real life.
00:15:21.200 Go to someone's door and talk to them about politics and you will realize that politics is an issue that for most people makes them very tight and uncomfortable.
00:15:29.880 Rural areas are better.
00:15:31.100 People are much more friendly.
00:15:32.240 They actually appreciate it when you come to their door, which is a great reason to doorknock in rural areas.
00:15:36.020 But they'll talk to you a little bit.
00:15:37.980 But most people, like in my riding of Calgary Signal Hill, I do a lot of door knocking around here.
00:15:42.480 People get a little bit tight when you start talking about politics because it's one of those ridings where there's not that many hot button political issues.
00:15:48.800 It's kind of a conservative default riding.
00:15:50.820 And because of that, I think a lot of people actually kind of fall out of practice about talking about politics.
00:15:55.060 So when you start talking to them about it, they get a little bit tight and they don't really want to talk about it because it feels like uncomfortable.
00:16:00.600 Like, well, are we supposed to be doing this?
00:16:02.160 Do we sound conspiratorial?
00:16:03.900 All stuff like this.
00:16:04.800 So the PPC needs to understand what an average person thinks.
00:16:08.980 And the other reason the PPC is not growing is because they never talk about Justin Trudeau.
00:16:13.460 Like, obviously they do.
00:16:14.900 But my point is that their main focus, the main focus of every drive that the PPC does, is to talk about how they're purer than the conservatives.
00:16:21.980 And are they purer than the conservatives?
00:16:23.800 Probably.
00:16:24.620 Because they are not trying to win elections.
00:16:26.140 Obviously, you can be the purest party ever if you don't actually care about winning an election.
00:16:31.700 You just care about posting on social media about how you're cooler than the other guys.
00:16:34.980 But again, that Apple video that the liberals won't stop talking about, that was fantastic media for pure poly of just dunking on a liberal journalist who did not do any fact checking on his on his questions, did not bring any evidence that pure poly of like Donald Trump or that he's using populist language and stuff like that.
00:16:54.320 The PPC, Greg Wycliffe tried to do a parody video of this, that the PPC is the real conservative party that will put Canada first, and then tried to do this like parody version or the satire.
00:17:04.680 Someone said it's like, oh, it's satire.
00:17:06.340 It's parody.
00:17:07.460 Because the point is stupid.
00:17:09.700 Satire is subtle and clever.
00:17:11.780 This was not clever.
00:17:13.000 It's parody.
00:17:14.760 But like, they don't realize how cringy this is.
00:17:17.640 That they're constantly like going after pure poly of and saying he's terrible and he's not a real conservative.
00:17:23.740 At the same time that they keep copying him.
00:17:26.960 The thing is that trying to parody the Apple video is the most self-defeating thing you can possibly do.
00:17:34.020 The PPC is showing that its brand does not exist without being able to criticize the conservative party.
00:17:39.620 If you're trying to succeed as the PPC, one, door knock more, get more people signed up for memberships, maintain your EDAs because PPC EDAs keep getting deregistered because they don't actually file their financial paperwork at the end of the year.
00:17:52.540 And you should be criticizing Justin Trudeau.
00:17:55.460 And I'm not saying this like join with the conservatives to take down Justin Trudeau.
00:17:59.180 I'm not saying that you have to be part of the team and start wearing conservative badges.
00:18:02.400 My point is that the reason why small parties around the world tend to grow is because they prove that they are more competent at governing than the current government.
00:18:11.820 If you only criticize the opposition and you never prove why you do a better job as Justin Trudeau, people will just ignore you.
00:18:19.160 It's so down the rabbit hole for a small party to be criticizing the opposition party because they're not doing a good enough job.
00:18:27.100 Are you a are you a like an actual party or are you just a pack who is trying to push the conservative party to the right?
00:18:33.640 If they just came out and said, we're we're an influence organization that's trying to make the conservative party more conservative and we're not really trying to win any elections.
00:18:40.940 We might try and steal some votes here and there to try and pressure them to be more like us.
00:18:44.700 But at the end of the day, if they're trying to be a real party, that there's a strategy is not working.
00:18:49.500 They do not connect with the average person because the average person is not looking at some purity test sheet of how great you are on all the policies that you're not actually marketing at the doors.
00:18:59.280 That's just not how it works whatsoever.
00:19:01.400 The PPC needs to grow up and actually became a party for more than just people who are perpetually online and someone who is terminally online myself.
00:19:10.000 The messaging is too aggressive.
00:19:12.180 It's too in your face.
00:19:13.520 It's trying to show you why like it's a party for guys who only dress in plaid jackets.
00:19:18.720 That's the problem.
00:19:19.520 That's the people.
00:19:20.260 That's what people think of the party.
00:19:21.880 I'm not trying to be derogatory.
00:19:23.580 That's what people imagine in their heads when they say name a PPC politician.
00:19:27.000 They think of a guy in a big bulky plaid jacket who's yelling about something and has a very scraggly beard.
00:19:33.560 I even voted for them in 21.
00:19:35.800 The problem is though, the branding is everything and they do not care about their branding.
00:19:42.460 Anyways, that should be it for me today.
00:19:44.580 I have the links to my legal fund in the description of this video.
00:19:49.300 My lawyer actually just questioned the guy suing me today.
00:19:52.640 Hopefully it went well.
00:19:54.140 I believe it went well.
00:19:54.980 It's a super simplistic case that we're obviously in the right end.
00:19:58.380 If you can chip in a few dollars there, it really helps me out.
00:20:00.980 My lawyers cost a few hundred dollars an hour.
00:20:03.600 Obviously, five bucks here and there does help me out pay for my costs.
00:20:07.700 I also have the TNT email list in the description of this video if you want to sign up and be able to get TNT materials in your inbox,
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00:20:28.760 I still just prefer calling it Twitter, but I have the link to my account in the description.
00:20:33.780 If you want to follow me there, that'd be fantastic.
00:20:36.260 Other than that, I hope everyone has a fantastic day.