The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - August 11, 2024


Trudeau Liberals 3rd place in Quebec as Conservatives lead every province


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Length

16 minutes

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186.69862

Word count

3,116

Sentence count

181

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1

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Abacus Data has released a new poll that shows the Tories are leading the Liberals by 20 points nationally and by 7 points in Quebec. It's a very bad day for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but a good day if you like pointing and laughing at Trudeau and the collapse of the Liberal Party of Canada.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 It appears like it's a very bad day to be Prime Minister Justin Trudeau,
00:00:04.680 but a good day if you're somebody who likes pointing and laughing at Trudeau
00:00:08.820 and the collapse of the Liberal Party of Canada,
00:00:11.800 because there's a new pullout from Abacus data
00:00:14.380 showing that not only are the Conservatives still well ahead of the Liberals,
00:00:19.000 but the Liberals have somehow slumped into a brand new low.
00:00:23.240 But before I get into the particularly embarrassing data points,
00:00:26.880 I just want to go through the top-line numbers that Abacus has released.
00:00:31.040 So their poll shows that nationally the Conservatives are at 43%,
00:00:35.400 Liberals 23, that is a 20-point lead for the Conservatives.
00:00:40.460 The NDP is at 18%, which really demonstrates how bad Jagmeet Singh has his job.
00:00:46.160 The other left-wing party is currently collapsing, and he can't gain any new support.
00:00:51.240 Insane.
00:00:52.080 The Bloc Québécois is at 7%.
00:00:54.700 The Green Party is at 4%, and even the PPC is managing to get 4% in this poll,
00:00:59.800 even though in the vast majority of new polls coming out from all the different companies,
00:01:04.420 they've gotten used to polling around 1% to 3%, rarely ever seeing a 4% or 5% result.
00:01:11.000 That party's going nowhere.
00:01:12.420 The biggest problem for the PPC is, one, they're out of money these days.
00:01:15.700 They used to be able to bring in more money than the Bloc could, 0.92
00:01:19.040 because obviously the Bloc only collects money in Quebec for the most part,
00:01:22.340 and the PPC can fundraise everywhere.
00:01:24.860 I think right now they've only raised a little bit more than $300,000,
00:01:28.540 where the Bloc's at $600,000.
00:01:30.900 That used to be a reverse stat back in the day,
00:01:33.620 but as the PPC has not been able to gain any traction,
00:01:36.520 they cannot be surprised when their donors start to walk away from them,
00:01:40.600 not seeing any way for a purple wave to hit a riding and for them to gain a seat.
00:01:44.820 But now I want to get into the very funny numbers.
00:01:49.240 It's the numbers coming out of Quebec.
00:01:51.540 Because for a long time, even when the Conservatives were leading by 20 points in a lot of the other polls,
00:01:57.240 especially even just from other polls from abacus data,
00:02:00.180 the Liberals still had a couple of bright spots.
00:02:02.060 There was a couple of provinces where at least they were going to be able to hold on to their red wall.
00:02:06.880 Yes, they are going to get clobbered in the national election,
00:02:09.820 but at least they'll have a big chunk of seats left over so that after the next election,
00:02:15.160 the rebuilding won't be too dramatic,
00:02:17.840 and they basically just have to focus on the GTA, the Maritimes,
00:02:21.560 and in the kind of Vancouver, Metro Vancouver area.
00:02:24.920 No, no, no.
00:02:25.920 They might have to do some rebuilding in Quebec itself.
00:02:28.920 But before I get to those numbers,
00:02:30.700 I just quickly want to plug the fact that I currently am in Abbotsford,
00:02:34.280 and if you live in British Columbia,
00:02:36.180 I'm helping the BC Conservative Party, the Provincial Party,
00:02:39.360 take out David Eby's radical BC NDP.
00:02:42.640 So if you live in BC, there is a donation link to the Abbotsford South EDA.
00:02:47.140 Donate $100.
00:02:48.200 It only costed $25 after your 75% tax credit.
00:02:51.860 The only advantage the BC NDP has at this point is the money advantage,
00:02:56.000 and if you don't live in BC,
00:02:57.260 I have a legal fundraiser for this channel in the description below.
00:03:00.680 We're being sued by a Chinese billionaire for defamation
00:03:03.300 that he cannot even prove happened after more than two and a half years of this case going on.
00:03:08.060 But I digress, and now we are going to get back into the numbers here.
00:03:12.220 So this is Abbotsford's data's numbers for Quebec, comparing it to the rest of Canada.
00:03:17.040 Obviously, Quebec is still not a Conservative province,
00:03:20.740 but in a certain sense, it kind of is,
00:03:23.340 because in plurality, like in terms of the plurality of votes,
00:03:28.060 the Conservatives are actually leading in Quebec.
00:03:30.460 31%.
00:03:32.220 It's not even like they're just edging out the Liberals.
00:03:35.680 The Liberals are only at 24%.
00:03:37.460 The second-place priority is the Bloc Québécois.
00:03:40.320 That's insane.
00:03:41.480 Like, really, the Liberals don't do well in Quebec.
00:03:44.400 They do well in Montreal.
00:03:45.840 They have lost the rest of the province entirely.
00:03:49.120 And even this poll showed the Conservatives picking up one of their seats in downtown Montreal,
00:03:53.560 and it wasn't Anthony Housefather's seat, which also has the possibility of flipping Conservative.
00:03:59.380 It's a very hard province for the Conservatives to break into,
00:04:03.260 because even when they gain support, it tends to be just shotgunned around the entire province.
00:04:07.700 So while they are ahead of the Liberals and the Bloc,
00:04:10.460 the Bloc and the Liberals are still slated to win far more seats,
00:04:14.240 because the Bloc is a very, you know, suburban, rural party,
00:04:18.500 and the Liberals are a very Montreal party,
00:04:22.480 where the Conservatives are kind of just a party for generally everyone,
00:04:27.200 but not specifically concentrated anywhere to win seats.
00:04:30.380 But when you take Quebec out of the equation,
00:04:32.760 you can really tell also that the Conservative Party,
00:04:35.500 although it is doing well in Quebec these days relative to how they used to be able to do,
00:04:40.120 they are now becoming just the Anglo party.
00:04:42.700 47% of people in the rest of Canada, when you take out the Quebec,
00:04:47.960 are planning on voting for the Conservatives.
00:04:50.160 Only 22% voting Liberal, 20% voting NDP, 4 Green, 6 PPC.
00:04:57.380 This is just nightmarishly bad numbers for the Liberals,
00:05:01.200 because this is Justin Trudeau's claim to fame.
00:05:04.340 He is the son of Pierre Elliott Trudeau.
00:05:07.520 He is a Quebec politician himself.
00:05:09.640 His riding is in Papineau.
00:05:10.760 His riding is actually not that safe, too.
00:05:12.580 I should actually jump over to that at some point.
00:05:14.420 It's pathetic how his riding is not at all that safe,
00:05:18.160 considering he's the Prime Minister.
00:05:20.060 But he was supposed to be somebody who can deliver you just dozens and dozens of extra seats from Quebec,
00:05:25.620 and then making it easier to win a Canadian election as the Liberals,
00:05:29.800 by then being able to run up the score in Toronto,
00:05:32.320 in the general GTA Maritimes,
00:05:34.160 and then you don't even really need the rest of the country.
00:05:36.120 It's just a cherry on top to win a couple seats in Manitoba, in Alberta,
00:05:41.680 and then in BC, really, it's just Vancouver for the Liberals, and then the territories.
00:05:47.320 The Liberals, and that's where the whole stereotype for Western Canadians came,
00:05:51.840 that there's no point in even voting,
00:05:54.000 because the election is done by the time it gets to the border of Manitoba,
00:05:58.000 that the Liberals have gotten so many seats from the Maritimes,
00:06:01.460 from the GTA, and from, frankly, just Montreal and Quebec City,
00:06:06.340 that it's over by then.
00:06:07.780 But now, Trudeau can't even get Quebec.
00:06:10.780 The Quebec is not a guarantee for him anymore.
00:06:13.100 I want to quickly pull up this, because it's pretty sad,
00:06:17.360 that there is a by-election happening in the riding of LaSalle-Amard-Verdon,
00:06:23.440 currently, where it's a Liberal riding, a Liberal MP step down,
00:06:28.400 and the by-election should usually be a 100% lock for the Liberals,
00:06:34.000 and this is not a riding that I think the Conservatives can win,
00:06:36.980 it's just not a very Conservative place,
00:06:39.060 but the Liberals do not have a 100% chance of winning this riding.
00:06:42.660 They are currently in a tight three-way competition
00:06:46.220 between themselves, the NDP, and the Bloc Québécois.
00:06:49.820 This is the projected vote totals that they're expecting at the end of the day.
00:06:53.860 Even then, I actually think this is underestimating the Conservatives,
00:06:56.720 because the way that 338 works, just for a bit of context,
00:07:00.940 is it's a combination of historical data and current polling trends.
00:07:05.720 And this is a riding where the Conservatives probably in the last election got 5%.
00:07:09.740 That's not even, like, an exaggeration in Papano, Justin Trudeau's riding.
00:07:15.120 The Conservatives in 2021 only got 4.8%.
00:07:19.140 It's just areas that the Conservatives do not focus on.
00:07:21.580 So I think the Conservatives could punch higher than 13%.
00:07:24.300 But regardless, this is a riding that shouldn't be competitive whatsoever.
00:07:28.740 But Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, like in St. Paul, where they jammed,
00:07:34.700 they have to send in all of their ministers, all of their staffers.
00:07:38.080 They are dumping in probably more than $100,000
00:07:40.260 into both that by-election in St. Paul that they lost, as well as this one.
00:07:45.700 Because if Justin Trudeau loses this by-election,
00:07:49.080 and be very clear, every by-election is a referendum on the Prime Minister.
00:07:53.840 Not in terms of every by-election that's ever happened is a referendum on the Prime Minister.
00:07:58.800 But these days, with Justin Trudeau's poor performance,
00:08:02.340 no doubt everyone who is going to the polls,
00:08:05.500 it's not about the local candidate.
00:08:07.320 Who cares?
00:08:07.960 I've seen some councillor or whatever running for the Liberals.
00:08:10.900 These days, though, because of Justin Trudeau's performance,
00:08:14.360 he's a very polarizing figure.
00:08:15.820 So if someone's showing up to vote,
00:08:16.960 it's either that they like Trudeau or they don't.
00:08:18.980 And maybe they'll pick one of the parties because that lines up with them a bit.
00:08:23.260 You know, one might line up with them ideologically more than another.
00:08:26.820 But for the most part, they're not showing up because their own local guy's good.
00:08:32.060 They hate Trudeau and they either want an NDP bloc or conservative person to replace them.
00:08:37.780 And I want to get into some of the social media posts that have been coming out of the Liberal Party
00:08:41.200 because it's pretty desperate, the amount of stuff that they've been posting to try and turn this by-election
00:08:47.360 into something like, I guess, like a bellwether that if the Liberals win it,
00:08:53.180 then look, we're, like, you know, rocketing towards the sun once again in terms of our popularity.
00:09:00.060 They would not be posting this if it was a normal, sleepy by-election
00:09:03.880 in a Montreal suburb or in downtown Montreal.
00:09:07.260 Liberals posting,
00:09:07.920 working with Justin Trudeau and our Liberal team, Laura Palens-Itty or whatever,
00:09:13.140 is ready to deliver a better future for families in La Salle, Amard, Verdun.
00:09:17.080 I don't even know when the election day is.
00:09:19.200 Maybe it's tomorrow.
00:09:20.080 I haven't really paid that much attention.
00:09:22.040 Trudeau is apparently spending a lot of time in Montreal and he went to Montreal Pride
00:09:25.600 with this horrifying photo resulting from it.
00:09:28.880 Like, I don't know why you post this.
00:09:30.160 He just kind of looks a little bit psychotic.
00:09:32.480 Maybe I'll make this part of the thumbnail.
00:09:34.220 But he's spending an outsized amount of time in a city where he should basically never have to show up.
00:09:40.420 By the way, I don't even...
00:09:41.680 Why are there Pride parades and events after June?
00:09:45.140 You think that every single city kind of gets it out of their system,
00:09:47.440 but apparently every single city has, like, a different Pride day afterwards.
00:09:50.120 And then they posted this photo of this kind of old man saying,
00:09:53.720 oh, I don't like Pierre Polyev and I'm voting to get rid of him
00:09:56.300 as if this is, again, supposed to be a referendum on Pierre Polyev.
00:10:01.320 It's not.
00:10:02.900 That's all I can really say.
00:10:04.400 It's not a referendum election on Pierre Polyev.
00:10:07.120 But the Liberals need to feel like or pretend that if they win this by-election,
00:10:12.380 which shouldn't be in contention at all other than the fact that Trudeau sucks at his job,
00:10:16.160 that, no, no, no, if they win this safe Liberal seat,
00:10:20.760 then that means people don't like Pierre Polyev.
00:10:23.860 In this riding where we just looked at the numbers,
00:10:27.180 the Conservatives in historically...
00:10:29.080 I'll actually just quickly look at it.
00:10:31.120 Historically, the Conservatives in 21 got 7.6% of the vote.
00:10:35.120 2019, 7.2% of the vote.
00:10:37.800 But if the Liberals, guys, see if the Liberals win it,
00:10:41.260 that means people don't like Polyev,
00:10:42.700 even though it's a riding that hasn't liked Conservatives ever.
00:10:46.440 But here's this short clip that they put on their social media page.
00:10:49.700 What are you thinking about heading into this by-election?
00:10:52.640 Getting rid of Pierre Polyev.
00:10:56.300 Was the by-election in Carleton?
00:10:58.900 Is it anywhere close to where Pierre Polyev is an MP?
00:11:03.060 No.
00:11:03.900 No, the Liberals just don't have any narrative left over to use.
00:11:07.200 They just have nothing.
00:11:08.140 So they're having to just lean on the idea that basically Justin Trudeau waking up in the morning
00:11:13.580 and being able to put on his pants without help from assistance
00:11:17.780 means that Pierre Polyev is like, you know, his days are numbered.
00:11:21.540 I see this all the time.
00:11:23.020 It's sad.
00:11:23.980 Every time Justin Trudeau does a speech where people clap for him semi-enthusiastically,
00:11:29.820 well, it means he's on a comeback.
00:11:31.580 Justin Trudeau is going to make a big comeback,
00:11:33.980 and Pierre Polyev is going to get tossed out by Canadians.
00:11:36.540 The same abacus research poll that came out,
00:11:39.700 and I'll probably cover this more extensively in another video,
00:11:42.800 but I'm just going to quickly bring it up here.
00:11:44.520 Pierre Polyev is actually becoming quite popular in Canada.
00:11:47.700 It's very difficult to become popular as a conservative.
00:11:50.380 There's just so many media stories that get released about you.
00:11:54.400 It's not because you did anything wrong.
00:11:55.720 Every politician can have a bunch of media stories released on how they're a really bad,
00:11:59.660 big, mean man or whatever, or woman, I guess.
00:12:03.080 But the thing is that the media is so left-wing that they attack conservatives disproportionately,
00:12:08.340 makes them look bad.
00:12:09.880 And because of all the parties that currently hold seats,
00:12:13.560 the conservative party is the only one right of center.
00:12:17.200 You have four other parties who attack you constantly,
00:12:20.280 the Greens, NDP, Bloc, and the Liberals.
00:12:23.060 So it's a massive uphill battle as a conservative leader to actually become popular.
00:12:28.820 And right now, Pierre Polyev is at his most popular ever.
00:12:31.840 42% approval with only 35% of people disapproving of him.
00:12:36.660 Go down to Justin Trudeau.
00:12:38.380 58% of people disapprove of him.
00:12:40.420 Only 25% approve of him.
00:12:43.040 Jagmeet Singh.
00:12:44.060 37% disapprove.
00:12:45.660 33% approve.
00:12:47.060 You can see at the beginning of this chart,
00:12:49.120 he actually had a positive rating, 39 to 27.
00:12:51.660 The reason why NDP leaders historically usually have a positive approval rating
00:12:56.780 is simply because people don't see them as a serious political figure.
00:13:01.260 You just assume, you know, Mulcair, Leighton,
00:13:04.420 any whoever square people that usually have tended to be NDP leaders before Leighton,
00:13:09.480 you know, probably a nice guy.
00:13:11.520 Because he's never going to be prime minister, so why hate him?
00:13:13.740 And that's the impression people had of Jagmeet Singh for a long time.
00:13:16.660 Nobody wanted to vote for him.
00:13:18.160 His polling numbers are horrible,
00:13:19.660 even compared to Mulcair.
00:13:22.560 And, you know, but people were willing to say,
00:13:24.640 oh, he's a nice guy.
00:13:25.780 His approval ratings, though, hit the floor as soon as he signed.
00:13:29.360 And it took a little bit of time because it was a lag.
00:13:32.580 But as soon as he signed the confidence and supply agreement with the liberals,
00:13:37.040 his approval ratings hit the floor,
00:13:38.900 because now he's actually complicit in what Justin Trudeau does.
00:13:42.900 Jagmeet Singh's not just some whiny trade unionist from the back of parliament
00:13:46.540 saying that we should do price fixing and maybe communism is a good idea.
00:13:50.940 No, no.
00:13:51.440 Now he is actually in cahoots with Trudeau ruining your life.
00:13:55.640 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:13:58.020 I'm going to come back and go over some more of these results from this advocacy data poll
00:14:02.240 in the coming days.
00:14:03.240 There's a lot of interesting stuff about immigration.
00:14:05.440 That is going to become a top issue in Canada.
00:14:07.900 It's a driving factor in Quebec as to why the Conservatives are rising in popularity
00:14:11.940 because Pierre Polyev, in a lot of French interviews,
00:14:14.440 has been very hawkish against immigration and wants the rates to be much lower.
00:14:18.640 That's a big deal for him and a lot of people.
00:14:20.740 But it's going to be probably a bigger issue than what a lot of the things
00:14:25.260 the liberal media is going to want to talk about.
00:14:27.180 They're going to try and avoid it.
00:14:28.200 They're going to try and say that everyone actually wants to talk about,
00:14:31.360 you know, grocery store cartels and environment.
00:14:35.040 But no, it's affordability, it's immigration, it's social issues,
00:14:39.420 and that's pretty much it.
00:14:40.800 People don't care about these fringe luxury issues around, you know,
00:14:46.420 hate speech or whatever and issues about immigration, you know,
00:14:51.380 issues around the environment and all this sort of other stuff that liberals
00:14:56.480 prefer to talk about, you know, generational fairness.
00:14:59.820 It's abstract issues that nobody actually thinks about in a day,
00:15:02.720 but the liberals would like you to think about in a day
00:15:04.640 because that might make you vote for them
00:15:06.340 if you think about these really esoteric things
00:15:08.720 that have nothing to do with your actual quality of life.
00:15:12.500 Okay, well, anyways, that should be it for me today.
00:15:15.520 Again, if you live in BC, donate $100 to the Ambitstford South EDA.
00:15:20.460 All the other parties in British Columbia get $1.56
00:15:23.260 for every vote they got in the last election.
00:15:25.900 The conservatives weren't a big party in the last election.
00:15:28.580 They only got 2% of the vote.
00:15:29.860 So obviously they don't get a lot of money where the NDP gets millions of dollars per year
00:15:34.300 based on the money they got from votes.
00:15:37.440 It's insane.
00:15:38.440 It's not democratic at all.
00:15:40.440 It is an advantaging incumbents.
00:15:41.980 So that's why if you live in BC, donate to that,
00:15:44.380 and we're going to distribute it to other ridings that need our help
00:15:47.340 after we get ourselves fully funded.
00:15:49.360 If everyone who supports conservatives gives $100 and gets,
00:15:52.320 which only costed 25 because of 75% tax credit,
00:15:55.760 it would like the conservatives can easily win.
00:15:57.560 The only advantage the NDP has is the money advantage.
00:16:01.380 And then if you don't live in BC, you always think about donating to the legal fund.
00:16:05.140 It's an ongoing legal battle that's cost me more than $32,000 so far.
00:16:09.320 And so any money does help that.
00:16:11.440 But I'll see you guys later in another video.
00:16:14.100 And at some point I should maybe include, I'm going to Japan on the 16th.
00:16:19.040 But I'm going to try and record a bunch of pre-recorded evergreen content
00:16:22.760 where it doesn't matter when it comes out.
00:16:24.260 It's just a fun video so that it doesn't feel like I'm just gone for two weeks straight.
00:16:28.500 But I'll also try and film content while I'm in Japan if anything breaking happens
00:16:33.940 and I just want to do a quick five-minute sort of reaction to what's going on.
00:16:37.960 Anyways, that should be it for me, finally.
00:16:40.640 See you guys later.