The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Trudeau Liberals about to lose another by-election by a massive margin!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and it's that magical time of year right now, not Christmas,

00:00:07.860 it's that time of year where Justin Trudeau and the federal liberals lose yet another by-election.

00:00:14.400 This time, it's happening tomorrow in Cloverdale, Langley City, where the liberals are about to

00:00:19.920 have the conservatives beat them for a riding that they won back in 2021. For a little bit of

00:00:26.060 background on this riding, for some reason, liberal MP John Aldag resigned his seat to then go and run

00:00:33.400 for the BCNDP, thinking it was a better opportunity, a race that he then lost to Harmon Bangu for one of

00:00:40.420 the Langley-Abbotsford ridings, and now the liberals are having to put up a MP replacement for him who's

00:00:47.560 about to get smashed by former MP Tamara Jensen, making her comeback into federal office. So let's

00:00:54.760 look at the 338 numbers here, and then I want to take you through the past performances of the

00:01:00.560 liberals in this riding and other ridings to show how much of the devastating loss this is likely to

00:01:06.640 be. But before I get into that, I'm sure remind you guys, if you are not yet a subscriber, please

00:01:11.860 subscribe. I have a bet to get to 100,000 subscribers by December of next year, so help me out and make

00:01:18.040 sure that you are a subscriber to the National Telegraph channel. So here is the current numbers

00:01:23.780 from 338 Canada on what they're projecting will happen in Cloverdale-Langley City. Remember, this was

00:01:30.740 a riding that the liberals won back in 2021. So the conservatives are projected to get 53% of the

00:01:41.720 vote plus or minus 8%. Obviously, a lot of these projections can be off significantly because it's

00:01:47.900 a projection based off of regional numbers. And the liberals, though, are only projected to get 27%

00:01:55.080 of the vote and the NDP grabbing 17%. That is a 26% average projected lead for the conservatives in

00:02:05.440 this riding. This is a riding that if the liberals lose it, there is no way that they can form a

00:02:11.380 government at all. We already knew that the liberals were dead in the water and not going to

00:02:15.020 be able to actually win a government. But how does Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stay on

00:02:21.940 as liberal leader at this point when he can't even win ridings that didn't even get them a majority?

00:02:28.260 This riding kept them in a minority. And when you can't even win your minority government incumbent

00:02:33.880 seats, you're failing. You suck at politics. But the problem for the Liberal Party is that while 1.00

00:02:40.720 Justin Trudeau sucks at politics, everyone else in the party was dumb enough to let him be leader 1.00

00:02:46.140 this long, so obviously they suck at politics too. You'll see that the liberals won this riding with 1.00

00:02:51.440 39.1% of the vote back in 2021, which means that if this 27% projection holds up, they will have lost

00:02:59.920 12% of the vote since last election. And again, the NDP aren't exactly doing that well either, so they

00:03:06.720 have not lost any votes to their left. They have only lost votes to the right. And the conservatives

00:03:12.740 are again, yeah, projecting at 53%, which is a massive increase for them. And of course, this

00:03:19.520 projection gives the conservatives a 99% chance of winning the riding. And to put in perspective how big

00:03:28.460 a 26% win would be for the conservatives, which I think is likely, I'd be shocked if the liberals were

00:03:35.180 even putting significant resources in the riding leading up to this by-election, because Aaron O'Toole

00:03:42.660 didn't even win his own riding by that much. He won his riding by less than 20%. And Tamara Jensen

00:03:49.920 is about to get back into Parliament with even more than that, 26% of the vote. It's absolutely insane.

00:03:57.200 I want to take you through what some of the last riding results looked like in Cloverdale,

00:04:02.020 Langley City, because it really flavors what's going on here. So there's no big slate of independent

00:04:08.100 candidates in this by-election like has happened in other races. To make an aside here for a second,

00:04:14.860 I hate that stupid longest ballot committee thing. It's kind of funny. Wow, look, we got 89 candidates 0.99

00:04:21.200 on the ballot. We got 115 candidates on the ballot. Cool, guys. That's neat. You're not proving anything

00:04:27.400 about why we need proportional representation. All you're proving is that we just need to make it so

00:04:32.660 that one agent can't sign for like 100 candidates. Obviously, that's not legitimate. Obviously, that

00:04:40.120 one person doesn't just believe in all 100 of these people. We should have a rule where you can only be

00:04:45.320 the signing authority for one candidate. You cannot sign the paperwork for like 100 candidates to get them

00:04:52.220 on the ballot when no substantial amount of people in that riding actually wants you, and you don't

00:04:57.400 even live in the same province. But anyways, so last election in 2019, or sorry, that's 2019, 2021,

00:05:06.140 John Aldegg won with 39% of the vote, and Tamara Jensen lost with 36.1. In 2019, Tamara Jensen had first 0.65

00:05:14.600 gotten into office with 37.73% of the vote, beating John Aldegg, who only got 53, 35.22% of the vote.

00:05:23.880 And before that, John Aldegg first got into office with 45.5% of the vote, and previously,

00:05:30.900 the Conservatives had held the riding before. It had like the riding boundaries changed. The name of the

00:05:36.200 riding also changed, and the Conservatives had gotten 57% of the vote, and the MVP got 24. The Liberals,

00:05:42.760 back in 2011, because it was such a bad race for them, only got 11% of the vote. So yes, this is not

00:05:49.220 like a Liberal stronghold the same way Toronto-St. Paul was, or LaSalle-Imard-Verdon was in Montreal.

00:05:56.460 Yeah, those ridings were really devastating losses, and this one isn't going to be as devastating in a

00:06:02.640 technical sense because it's not a stronghold riding, but we can still measure how far the Liberals

00:06:08.580 have fallen by seeing how big the Conservative margin is. When Jamil Giovanni ran into by-election

00:06:14.500 in Durham to replace Aaron O'Toole, which was great because Aaron O'Toole was not only a terrible

00:06:20.140 Conservative Party leader, he's not Conservative at all, and he was a bad Conservative MP on top of that.

00:06:25.980 But when Jamil Giovanni won that by-election, he had taken the win that Aaron O'Toole had in 2021

00:06:33.040 of like 18% or like 17% or whatever it was, and he extended it to like a 29% win. Yeah,

00:06:41.220 the Liberals were not going to win that riding, but Trudeau showed up and campaigned with them.

00:06:45.840 Every single minister and MP was backing that rock guy who had previously actually run for the

00:06:51.920 Conservative nomination. And the margin of victory for Jamil Giovanni proved that there was just a

00:06:58.480 insane shift in favor of the Conservatives. The Conservatives are not just driving their votes

00:07:04.660 out and the Liberals aren't driving their voters out. It is that the Conservatives have cannibalized

00:07:09.080 the Liberal voting base. And let's just quickly go back and look at the Cloverdale-Lang City numbers

00:07:14.700 too for 2021. Because look at this, the new Democrats had 19.8% of the vote in 2021. And now we are

00:07:24.200 looking at, if you remember, I don't need to bring it up again. But in the 338 projections, the NDP are

00:07:29.460 slated to get 17% of the vote. Even if they overperform by a few points, they effectively have

00:07:35.440 remained stagnant, if not lost votes from the 2021 election. Jagmeet Singh should be dropping out as

00:07:42.820 leader. I'm a Conservative, so obviously it's maybe good for the Conservatives that Trudeau and Singh remain

00:07:48.500 on as the leader of their parties because they're completely incompetent. But I just did a video,

00:07:53.620 a few videos ago, talking about the fact that even Jagmeet Singh, in whatever riding he chooses

00:07:59.100 to run in Burnaby, because his riding basically got split in half and redistributed into two

00:08:03.880 ridings. The one that actually has more of his old riding in it, he has a 4% chance of winning

00:08:08.460 according to 338. And the other one, he has like a 50-50 shot. It was like a Burnaby Center. And the

00:08:15.480 other one was like Fraser View, Burnaby South. Both of those are horrible options. And think about it.

00:08:20.680 You are literally not in government. You are not the person that people mainly hate who is Justin

00:08:25.280 Trudeau. But Jagmeet Singh's political maneuvering has been so ham-handed and bad that not only do

00:08:31.360 people just find him insufferable for just organic reasons, but the fact that he has stapled himself

00:08:36.100 to Justin Trudeau and then pretended to run away from Trudeau by ripping up the Supply and Confidence

00:08:41.000 Agreement before bear-hugging him again has been almost like calculated to make sure that the NDP

00:08:45.920 goes absolutely nowhere. I would be actually not that shocked if Heather McPherson, the Hamas 1.00

00:08:52.480 supporter in Edmonton, ends up losing her seat despite the Edmonton Strathcona supposed to be 0.93

00:08:58.420 like a super NDP easy win seat. I could see them losing seats in Winnipeg, the big trade eugenics city. 1.00

00:09:06.800 They could easily lose seats in Winnipeg because what has the NDP done any of these people? What has the

00:09:12.140 NDP delivered for them at all other than just whining in parliament? I wish the NDP cared like

00:09:19.140 a fifth of like a fifth as much of about Canada as they hate Israel. Man, that is just the we hate

00:09:26.760 Israel party. They do not talk about anything but that and like social justice issues. Canadians

00:09:33.160 suffering and in poverty? Well, they only care about that if they can make it a union issue, 0.98

00:09:38.260 even if it's mostly a taxes issue these days. But anyways, yeah, so none of this is surprising. If you

00:09:46.620 look at any of the approval rating polls right now for Trudeau, and I've said this in so many videos

00:09:51.700 before, if you look at Justin Trudeau's approval rating, it matches almost entirely what the liberals

00:09:57.160 are polling at. Because if you don't like Justin Trudeau, there's no way you will ever consider voting

00:10:04.120 for the liberal party. I want to actually bring it up on screen is the last thing I bring up on screen

00:10:08.180 here. And I do want to show you this because it is very accurate how the relationship between Trudeau's

00:10:15.840 approval rating and the liberals polling works. So this is the liberals polling in the last abacus

00:10:21.220 data poll. They do a good job of the approval ratings, in my opinion. I don't like when people mix,

00:10:26.960 you know, in options like you strongly approve, or do you strongly disapprove? Do you somewhat approve or

00:10:33.060 somewhat disapprove? Are you neutral? Either you like them, you don't, or you don't know. That's it.

00:10:38.380 So in this poll, the liberals got 21% of the vote, you can see them absolutely collapsing since March

00:10:45.620 of 2023. And if you go back even further, it was way more dramatic. Because when Paulia first became

00:10:51.620 leader, there were still some polls where the liberals could lead by like one or two, or were only

00:10:56.100 trailing by the margin of error. Like look at here as well. This is why the liberals are losing.

00:11:00.500 Only have 16% in BC, according to abacus data. But let's go down and check out the percentage of

00:11:09.700 people who actually approve of Justin Trudeau. 23%. Only 23% of people approve of Trudeau. 61%

00:11:17.940 disapprove. 23% is within the margin of error of the liberals polling. And that has not been true

00:11:25.200 in literally probably two years now. In two years, there has not been a single person who didn't

00:11:31.200 like Justin Trudeau, but was still willing to vote for the liberal party, or a significant amount of

00:11:35.780 people who liked Trudeau, but they just didn't like the liberals. Because every single liberal MP might

00:11:41.320 as well be wearing a face mask, a Halloween face mask of Justin Trudeau's face, because they all just

00:11:47.200 represent Trudeau. They just do what he says. Which makes the story of Trudeau's staff trying to

00:11:52.940 undermine Chrystia Freeland and come up with excuses to get rid of her. Just all the more

00:11:57.620 hilarious. Freeland has dedicated her political career to doing everything Justin Trudeau says.

00:12:03.400 And now he is trying to cut her, like saw her arm off, because she's now a liability, because she

00:12:09.820 listened to Justin too much. And now they want to jam in Mark Carney, who, let's be honest, is just going

00:12:15.960 to represent everything Trudeau wants. Yet again, there's not going to be a change in style.

00:12:20.120 This, we've already seen those with Bill Morneau to Freeland. Bill Morneau's even been saying,

00:12:25.740 yeah, I wasn't allowed to do anything. And basically, if you didn't give Justin exactly what

00:12:29.480 he wanted, he'd throw a fit and get mad at you and threaten to get rid of you. And like, you know,

00:12:34.020 I guess it's nice that Bill Morneau says that now, but it would have been nice if he said that

00:12:37.560 when he's still in office. But Freeland took over, and everything stayed the exact same. It doesn't

00:12:42.520 matter if Mark Carney has better experience. He doesn't, because everyone is just going to filter

00:12:48.620 everything they do through these stupid opinions of Justin Trudeau. Also, let's talk about this, 0.99

00:12:54.080 one more aspect of this by-election, the PPC. Guys, if the PPC cannot achieve the 4.8% that they

00:13:02.540 got back in 2021, time to pack it in. If you cannot actually just maintain your votes from 2021,

00:13:10.300 time to pack it in. You got to be able to hit doors. You got to be able to message to people

00:13:15.380 who aren't already voting for you. I'm not a PPC hater, like, oh, I think they're paid by the

00:13:20.520 liberals to run these elections. Really don't. That's not how politics works. Find me, the PPC

00:13:26.340 guy being paid by the liberals, and I'll believe you. I think that you underestimate the incompetence

00:13:31.260 of PPC HQ if you think they're being paid by the liberals. I think they're incompetent enough on

00:13:36.260 their own, and they didn't need the incentive of the liberals to do this. Maxime Bernier is already

00:13:40.980 being paid by the PPC a yearly salary to basically sit around and not do much.

00:13:46.760 If they cannot get their 4.8%, guys, you can't say, oh, actually, the polls are wrong. We're

00:13:52.500 surging. We're surging. You just don't see it yet. People don't care. You can't keep posting

00:13:58.600 really cringy AI images of PPC supporters depicted as lions and actually think you're doing well when

00:14:06.860 at the ballot box. People are not choosing you. Oh, well, why? Maybe the ballots are not real.

00:14:12.560 No, no, no. You just are not hitting doors. I've never seen a PPC guy in my riding ever knock on my

00:14:19.440 door, ever drop something off. I've never seen PPC signs in Calgary ridings outside of very limited

00:14:26.020 areas, and they're usually on public property, not on private lawns. Guys, please figure it out. I don't

00:14:32.380 even care. I don't even want the PPC to go away. I want them to go away if they're not actually going

00:14:36.920 to put any effort in. If you put effort in, you can stay. You have the right in my mind to stick

00:14:41.540 around, but try. Try. Actually hit doors. Convince people of your message. Don't just sit on social

00:14:48.620 media telling everyone that, oh, they're eventually going to wake up. Every Canadian's just a temporarily 0.94

00:14:54.460 confused PPC voter who will eventually wake up and vote for our very inconsistent platform. They started

00:15:01.040 as a free market party. They are now a distributionism, anti-free trade party. If

00:15:05.640 you talk to many of their influencers, they used to be pro-choice. Now they're pro-life. They used to be

00:15:10.380 like, they used to be wanting like 150,000 person limit on immigration. Now they want a moratorium

00:15:15.940 because the liberals and conservatives moved more anti-immigration. So now the PPC has to one-up

00:15:21.320 everyone by being a immigration moratorium party, which is fantastic, which is a fantastic way

00:15:26.960 of alienating people by being artificially obtuse on an issue. I think we need to lower immigration 1.00

00:15:33.180 underneath a hundred thousand people a year. Guess what? I could actually convince someone to vote

00:15:38.120 for that. Once you say zero, you will, for some reason, just cut in half the amount of people

00:15:43.040 who are anti-immigration, who would then be willing to vote for you. Because most of those people are

00:15:46.860 like, well, that's not reasonable. I get the point of having a moratorium. We need to have the housing

00:15:51.960 mark and everything catch up, and then we can slowly raise it later. But guys, the thing is,

00:15:57.420 you don't need zero to achieve the goal of stabilizing the economy and sending people with 1.00

00:16:03.140 expired visas home and having stricter limitations on who can enter the country, become a foreign

00:16:09.620 worker, student, or permanent resident. It's all doable with more realistic policy goals.

00:16:16.920 Anyways, that's it for me today, guys. Again, help me achieve my hundred thousand goal.

00:16:21.960 Subscribe to the channel, like this video, leave a comment, and if you want to financially support

00:16:26.740 us, you can always donate to the Give, Send, Go legal fund. I have linked both in the description

00:16:31.920 below as well as pinned at the top of the comments. I've been fighting this Chinese billionaire 0.99

00:16:36.580 developer on the stupid defamation case for over three years now. We're going to win, and now he's 1.00

00:16:41.560 running away from us, even though he's the one who started the case. But any dollars does help me

00:16:45.800 offset the $34,000 I've had to pay in legal fees myself. Anyways, that's it for me today, guys.

00:16:51.960 Have a good one.

00:16:52.700 Have a good one.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - December 15, 2024

Trudeau Liberals about to lose another by-election by a massive margin!

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript