In the wake of the by-election in the Ontario riding of Durham, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party threw everything at the wall to try and win the seat, and failed miserably. In this episode, we talk about why the Liberals did so badly in this election, and why it may have been a litmus test for them.
00:00:00.000I don't think that it can be overstated just how badly Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party did in the Durham by-election last night.
00:00:08.180They knew that this race was going to be a litmus test, as it rightfully should be, and they threw everything at the wall for it.
00:00:15.460Trudeau and his cabinet showed up to stump for the Liberal candidate Robert Rock, who previously applied to be the Conservative candidate in the riding,
00:00:22.260which is a bad sign for your electoral chances when your own candidate only wanted you as his second choice.
00:00:27.720But they also threw tons of money at this race, threw all of their volunteers into the riding, and they still underperformed.
00:00:35.620It turns out when the Conservatives run a real Conservative as their candidate, Jamil Javani in this case, they do really well.
00:00:42.800Jamil Javani got 57.4% of the vote, which is actually an 11% vote share improvement over Aaron O'Toole in 2021,
00:00:51.640despite the fact that Aaron O'Toole was the leader of the party, but it just goes to show that nobody liked Aaron O'Toole
00:00:58.140because he was effectively just a Liberal-lite Conservative representative.
00:01:02.760The Liberals only got 22.5% of the vote.
00:01:06.520The NDP got 10.4%, which is also embarrassing for them.
00:01:09.940And the PPC should really think about packing it in because they only got 4.4% of the vote in a by-election.
00:01:16.540I thought the PPC was supposed to be good in by-elections because their base is super, super, like, you know, hardcore,
00:02:02.420He's trying to point out, like, well, the Conservatives have been winning this riding since 2004 in every federal election and by-election.
00:03:29.480Yeah, not as many people know there's an election going on.
00:03:31.980People don't take by-elections as seriously.
00:03:33.700But the cross-section of voters who show up and vote in a by-election is pretty much going to be what the cross-section is going to look like in a general election.
00:03:43.300It's just that less people show up because, you know, more apathetic voters don't feel like this one's even really worth, you know, voting in.
00:03:49.820And a lot of Liberals probably showed up because they knew their guy wasn't going to win.
00:05:42.860I voted PPC in 21 to register my displeasure with the lack of conservatism coming out of the conservative party under Aaron O'Toole.
00:05:50.520Things are much better under Pierre Polyev, and that's why a lot of people are not voting PPC anymore.
00:05:55.820All of the by-election since the 21 election shows the PPC losing votes.
00:05:59.900Even when Bernier ran in Portage-Lisgar as their candidate there in their best riding, he lost votes compared to what they had in the previous election in terms of vote share.
00:06:12.060I don't expect anyone to have the same amount of raw votes in a by-election that they do in a general election.
00:06:17.760But that's sad, just almost as sad as Justin Trudeau and the Liberals underperforming.
00:06:23.220And this is what the poll that just got released today by Nanos Research shows.
00:06:28.000The conservatives now federally have a 20% lead over the Liberals, 43 to 23, with the NDP at 21, almost tied with the Liberals.
00:06:38.720This by-election shows that this is like realistic numbers, that what these polls are showing are probably very close to what reality is.
00:06:47.520I even just looked at the Durham 338 projections, them sort of determining who's probably going to win this race.
00:06:54.500They actually, like Jamil Javani, overperformed the 338 projections by 2%.
00:07:01.680That's pretty good considering 338 was really hawkish for him to cross over 50% of the vote.
00:07:08.180And they said 55 and he ended up with 57.4.
00:07:40.040It doesn't work when you've been in power for nine years and been consistently screwing things up.
00:07:45.540I'm not sure why they need to be told this, because it should be true on its face.
00:07:50.900Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:07:53.840I just want to quickly plug the fact that I, Wyatt Claypool, am running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination
00:08:00.020to replace Mr. Ron Liepert since he's not running again.
00:08:03.020If you live in these general areas of the riding, you can see it on, you can go online and go check out what the general area of the riding looks like.
00:08:11.700But bonus is being cut out after April, and this is what that map is showing.
00:08:15.500If you live in this riding, buy a membership to vote for me.
00:08:18.500Go check out my website in the description below, wyattclaypool.com.
00:08:22.760And if you do not live in the riding, but you still want to support the campaign, you can donate through an e-transfer on the website.
00:08:28.420There is a donation link on the website, and it will show what you have to do to e-transfer money and make sure it's legal with Elections Canada.
00:08:36.160It's just providing extra information so they know who's donating.
00:08:39.520And if you don't want to do that, you can also donate to the TNT Legal Fund.
00:08:43.700We have a ridiculous billionaire developer suing us for defamation, despite the fact that we have said nothing incorrect about him.
00:08:50.460And also, our guest writer, when they mentioned him in an article, pretty much just used an old Globe and Mail article, which was a massive investigation of him.
00:08:59.360So we never even reported anything really new about him, but he's still trying to go after us.
00:09:04.420So any money you can contribute to that legal fund really helps us out.
00:09:08.120Our legal costs have been more than $26,000 so far.