The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 04, 2024


Trudeau Liberals in 4th place for seats in new poll!

Topics
labor messaging
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Jagmeet Singh Sherey Attiste Sam Harris Pure Poly Abbotsford South Bloc Québécois Mark Gerritsen Angus Reid David Eby Blocs
David Eby's NDP campaign is failing - BC Conservatives set up to win! Jagmeet Singh burns deal with Justin Trudeau - Will it trigger an election？

Episode Stats


Length

12 minutes

Words per minute

189.33

Word count

2,422

Sentence count

154

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Toxicity

4

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A new poll from Angus Reid Research has the Tories leading the Liberals by 22 points, and it's the worst it could possibly get. The Liberals are in serious trouble. And it's not just bad polling, it's really bad polling.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey everyone, we're back in the normal studio for at least one episode today, and we're back for a really fun one,
00:00:07.240 because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's liberals are in deep danger.
00:00:11.960 And yes, they have been in deep danger for about a year now, but it's somehow gotten worse.
00:00:17.240 And I've said that many times over the past several months, that somehow it does get worse for Justin Trudeau.
00:00:22.480 And this is a beautiful exception to that, in which it's not just worse, it's the worst it could possibly get.
00:00:31.160 This is a new poll out from Angus Reid that has the Conservative Party of Canada under the leadership of Pierre Folliou at 43%.
00:00:39.140 The Liberals, 21, only 21%.
00:00:42.840 The NDP is at 19, Bloc Québécois at 10, Green Party 5 and PPC getting their 1% that they dream of.
00:00:50.980 But this is horrific.
00:00:53.900 And yes, have the Liberals been around 22 points before?
00:00:56.880 I think there's been another poll that had them at 21 points.
00:01:00.020 But they're 22 points behind right now.
00:01:02.900 The margin between the Liberals and the Conservatives is bigger than the share of the vote that the Liberals have.
00:01:10.540 And do you know how many seats this would result in the Liberals getting?
00:01:15.260 Not very many, apparently.
00:01:16.700 They would come in fourth place on seats, at least according to the model of Sherey Attiste here, who actually has been very good at predicting the outcomes of by-elections.
00:01:27.660 He tends to, at least from what I've seen with his modeling, he tends to add in the fact that based on the enthusiasm in different voting groups,
00:01:37.420 the Conservatives tend to actually overperform their polls and the Liberals tend to underperform their polls.
00:01:43.100 So 21% basically means that in many of these ridings around the GTA area, even the Montreal area, Vancouver, the Maritimes,
00:01:52.880 the Liberals are basically winning nothing.
00:01:54.540 Because the difference between getting 21% for the Liberals and getting like 25%, that 4% gap is like everything in the GTA.
00:02:04.860 Because the Liberals, most of their seats are one with like 42% of the vote, which isn't that much overall.
00:02:10.360 A lot of Conservative seats are one with like 55% of the vote.
00:02:13.520 There's not that many safe Liberal seats, and this is proving it.
00:02:17.000 Whereas the NDP with 19 is getting far more seats because they have very concentrated support around the country.
00:02:22.560 A lot of NDP seats are actually very safe seats that they win with like 60% of the vote because it's some like Winnipeg Labour riding or some university riding.
00:02:33.600 But this polling model from Sherey Attiste has the Conservatives getting 227 seats, the Bloc getting 48, making the Bloc the official opposition.
00:02:42.960 The NDP gets 41 seats, they actually somehow just fumble into doing better because the Liberals are so incompetent.
00:02:49.900 And then the Liberal Party of Canada gets 25 seats, and the Greens get two.
00:02:55.780 That's amazing to me.
00:02:57.500 Sorry, I'm a little bit sick today.
00:02:59.180 But like, you know, masterful gambit, Mr. Trudeau.
00:03:03.620 I don't know how he's just fumbled this hard in the past year.
00:03:07.840 Yes, Pure Poly is a very formidable opponent for Justin Trudeau.
00:03:12.080 So Pure Poly of his charismatic, he's talking about the right issues, he knows how to frame the issues, he knows how to fight back against the media.
00:03:18.900 But Justin Trudeau, all he keeps doing is either just basically denying anything's wrong, and actually everything's fantastic.
00:03:25.920 Or he just labely just photocopies whatever the DNC is doing in the United States.
00:03:31.220 And so now the Liberals have been kind of pushing this, like, Justin Trudeau is a fresh new face in politics.
00:03:37.200 He's just like Kamala Harris, he's full of joy.
00:03:40.000 And, you know, spoiler, Kamala Harris is not a joyful person either. 0.98
00:03:43.300 But when Justin Trudeau tries to do that same strategy but in Canada, as the man who has been in charge for nine years, it's just insulting to people.
00:03:51.840 And that's what generates big moments like this, where Justin Trudeau gets absolutely dunked on by a worker at an event he's trying to do with labor over the Labor Day long weekend.
00:04:04.320 We've got donuts over here if you want to thank you for your hard work.
00:04:07.320 I can bring some for my kids here.
00:04:08.640 Hey, the 25% Paris we just brought in on Chinese skills. 0.71
00:04:12.340 Can I help you out?
00:04:12.920 That's going to keep my job, yeah.
00:04:14.480 What about the 40% taxes I'm paying and I don't have a doctor?
00:04:19.640 The $400 million invested in your electric car means you're going to have a job for many, three years.
00:04:24.740 I think you're only here for another year.
00:04:26.480 We won't see around probably another year.
00:04:28.020 That's what elections are for.
00:04:29.340 That's right, that's right.
00:04:30.180 And I look forward to everyone exercising the right to vote.
00:04:32.940 Yeah.
00:04:33.280 The basic choice, we're going to invest in you and your job.
00:04:36.620 I don't believe you for a second.
00:04:39.260 Dental care?
00:04:40.500 Do you know anyone who got dental care?
00:04:41.960 Yeah, I pay for it myself.
00:04:43.380 Okay.
00:04:43.800 We're like three years behind.
00:04:44.680 Because you have a job in coverage.
00:04:45.700 Yeah, four people in my family.
00:04:47.300 Okay, I don't think we need to see any more of this.
00:04:50.300 But yeah, that did not go well for Justin Trudeau because he just doesn't know how to talk to average people anymore.
00:04:55.160 And that was such a devastating clip for Trudeau.
00:04:57.900 Like, not like it's going to, you know, further put him in the hole.
00:05:00.820 I don't think that video has that much, you know, of an impact on an election.
00:05:04.700 But in terms of a week-long news cycle, that's a pretty embarrassing thing for Trudeau to have experienced.
00:05:10.420 But he doesn't know how to speak to this guy because he usually just gets the media to do it for him.
00:05:14.340 And now when he's talking to this guy who's like, yeah, no, nothing's actually very good right now.
00:05:19.040 And Justin Trudeau just says, dental care?
00:05:21.700 Do you know anyone with dental care?
00:05:23.240 And the guy's like, yeah, I pay for it for myself.
00:05:25.340 More than 50% of people before the dental care program had their own private plans.
00:05:30.280 And I even think before that, like another portion of people had private plans through employers.
00:05:36.320 Justin Trudeau is not helping anybody.
00:05:37.940 He is giving handouts to a small sliver of the population who maybe rightfully can't afford it and they maybe need some help.
00:05:47.360 But he's spending everybody's money on these bloated programs that are supposed to cover everyone in the country in order to solve minor issues for a select few group of people.
00:05:56.460 But he wants the credit for giving you dental care, even though you didn't get dental care from him.
00:06:01.700 You got it from your own wages, from paying into dental care.
00:06:07.420 But Justin Trudeau also on the weekend was trying to do a lot of like this labor messaging.
00:06:12.480 And it's really embarrassing to now see him trying to move into the NDP's turf of being like the labor party.
00:06:18.460 But to be real, the new labor party is basically the conservative party.
00:06:22.780 Because Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau both are not very good at speaking to actual workers.
00:06:28.800 A strong middle class doesn't happen by accident.
00:06:32.380 The eight-hour workday, weekends off, safe and healthy workplaces, protections against arbitrary dismissal, good paying, fulfilling community building work.
00:06:44.020 I'm going to point out there, this video goes on a little bit longer.
00:06:47.200 None of those things actually build a strong middle class.
00:06:50.380 All those were benefits.
00:06:51.840 Those were perks.
00:06:53.320 And unions have myth-made themselves into thinking that they're the ones who created the eight-hour workweek.
00:06:58.000 They didn't workplaces that were competing for better employees, gave better benefits out.
00:07:02.920 And that's how that happened.
00:07:04.400 Yes, unions had a small part to play in it, I suppose.
00:07:07.420 It's very overhyped how much unions have done in the past on these issues.
00:07:11.820 In general, a lot of bad labor standards actually back in the day were due to government giving specific corporations monopolies that had nothing to do with capitalism.
00:07:21.800 It was mostly about corporatism, state and private business power basically taking over a market in favor of a few and blocking out all competition.
00:07:30.900 But, yeah, all this stuff is not actually how you build a strong middle class because Justin Trudeau doesn't know how to build a strong middle class.
00:07:37.020 He just thinks that somehow the government passes policies that say we built a strong middle class and that's how you get it done.
00:07:42.860 Not by allowing people to actually go and sell their labor to somebody for the highest price or for people to buy labor, for people to buy products and all this stuff and be able to develop new natural resource projects.
00:07:56.880 No, no, no, it's the government being involved because Canada is a country where now more than 50% of the GDP is public spending, especially when you consider that a lot of our private spending is technically just contracted public or private corporations, but still working for the government.
00:08:13.960 So it's still government money going around paying for all this stuff.
00:08:17.560 But maybe to end off today, I just want to jump over to something that I felt was very telling about Jagmeet Singh, if I can find this one.
00:08:24.640 Jagmeet Singh posted this video promoting unions the other day, talking about how we all need to stand up to politicians like peer poly who want to crush workers.
00:08:36.080 And it's very telling that in this video that Jagmeet Singh posts, not to be rude to anybody, I'm going to turn off the volume just because there is some, I believe, some music later on.
00:08:45.880 But they're doing the stuff about peer poly of being a nasty man who hates workers and Jagmeet Singh is the real man who's standing up for workers.
00:08:53.200 And the whole video is just him talking to these two women from very corporate labor boards.
00:09:00.280 Jagmeet Singh is not a worker, working class politician.
00:09:03.480 And this is what is killing him with union members when he's fighting against peer poly.
00:09:08.440 More working class union members are voting for peer poly because he respects them and because he doesn't treat them like they're five years old.
00:09:16.080 Jagmeet Singh has just videos of him hanging out with the most white collar union members you've ever seen.
00:09:22.940 People who work desk jobs, people who don't work at steel plants or, you know, auto manufacturing plants or any of this stuff.
00:09:30.580 People who don't work in the oil and gas sectors, resource sectors, logging.
00:09:35.340 Jagmeet Singh doesn't like those people because they're icky and they work tough jobs and he wants people who go for pedicures.
00:09:40.780 That's the Jagmeet Singh crowd.
00:09:42.340 And somehow, to go back to the start, somehow, Jagmeet Singh is still getting far more seats than Justin Trudeau.
00:09:49.500 Maybe we can even investigate this map a little bit more before I end this off.
00:09:53.480 But look at that Greater Toronto Area map.
00:09:59.140 Look how little there is for the Liberals.
00:10:02.020 There's three seats for the Liberals.
00:10:03.480 There are three seats for the Liberals in the Greater Toronto Area.
00:10:06.720 Where is Montreal?
00:10:09.220 This is the only somewhat bright spot for the Liberals.
00:10:12.020 A little bit of some soft Liberal seats around the Montreal area.
00:10:14.660 There's a Conservative seat and then the Blocs start moving into town a bit more.
00:10:18.080 Ottawa-Gatineau, the Liberals hold on to one seat.
00:10:21.200 Kingston would actually flip NDP.
00:10:23.280 Mark Gerritsen would rightfully lose his seat.
00:10:25.620 And the Greater Vancouver Area, again, you get one, two, three, four, five, six seats or whatever. 0.98
00:10:31.280 It's pathetic. 1.00
00:10:32.680 It's pathetic. 0.99
00:10:33.720 And it's because Justin Trudeau has been playing on political easy mode for the past seven years, running against weak Conservative leaders, running with the media, trying to push him into power, despite the fact that people don't like his policies. 0.98
00:10:48.400 And now that the media no longer is effective anymore and the Conservatives have a good leader, he's just dead in the water.
00:10:54.420 And him trying to just spin out the same old tricks about how actually Canada's on the rise, don't you see that some of the top ten places to live in the world are in Canada, all this stuff, it's insulting to people.
00:11:06.280 When the economy sucks and when he's the problem, you can't have you talk your way through it, it just infuriates people.
00:11:12.980 But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:11:15.360 If you want to donate to the legal fund for the National Telegraph, it really helps to support the show.
00:11:19.920 I have the Give, Send, Go link for that in the description of this video.
00:11:24.420 We have a Chinese billionaire suing us and it's cost me more than $32,000 defending ourselves in court.
00:11:30.980 And so contributing anything to that helps us keep fighting back so we don't have to give out fake apologies and capitulate to actual political bullies like this guy is.
00:11:40.900 So yeah, that would really help me out.
00:11:42.320 And then if you live in BC, I'm just going to plug the fact, please donate to the BC Conservative Party.
00:11:47.860 The only way that David Eby can stay in power is if he has a way better funded campaign than the Conservatives.
00:11:55.180 And even if people don't like him, his volunteers are the ones getting to the doors.
00:11:58.580 His people are the ones calling up BC residents, getting them to go vote NDP.
00:12:02.880 The BC Conservatives need some money so that they can get their volunteers out, so they can get messages out, so that they can run ads.
00:12:08.420 All the financing rules in BC are slanted towards incumbent parties like the NDP, and the Conservatives as a complete upstart is at a severe disadvantage.
00:12:17.540 So if you live in BC, go and donate in your riding or in the one I've linked in the description below, Abbotsford South.
00:12:24.380 Donate at least $100.
00:12:25.840 It doesn't matter really what EDA you donate to because we're going to be redistributing money into the different areas where the Conservatives have a good chance of winning.
00:12:33.400 So that's where I'll probably leave you guys off.
00:12:35.580 I might not be making another video in the studio because I'll probably be back in Abbotsford later today.
00:12:41.280 I have a big road trip, so, you know, wish me luck, I suppose.
00:12:44.860 But I'll see you guys next time, regardless of where that's at.