The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 11, 2024


Trudeau's Liberals fall off a polling cliff!

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Polyev Erin O'Toole Annamie Paul Trump Leslyn Lewis Michelle Ferreri Mark Gerritsen Max Fawcett
Liberals lie to justify police arresting journalists Justin Trudeau hits record high unpopularity!

Episode Stats


Length

8 minutes

Words per minute

203.67

Word count

1,807

Sentence count

96

Harmful content

Toxicity

1

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, I break down the latest polls that suggest that the Liberals are losing ground to the Conservatives in the upcoming election. I also discuss why the media is so desperate to make Justin Trudeau seem like a winner, and why the PPC is likely to fail.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Truly one of the most pathetic things that we witnessed in 2023 in terms of political commentary was the attempt to cheerlead a supposed Justin Trudeau liberal comeback narrative based on two polls that were supposedly showing that the liberals had a chance to win the next federal election.
00:00:17.240 Now, you must think, well, what did these polls say? Did they show the liberals were neck and neck with the conservatives? Were they actually above the conservatives in this new poll? No, the conservatives were up 10 points in both abacus data poll and a nanos poll. But that was the best news that the liberals had heard in about four or five months. And we got articles like this written about it from Max Fawcett.
00:00:39.020 That pure poly of his mouth just opened the door to a liberal comeback and pure breeze new life into Trudeau's chances. And then this Toronto Star one that said Trudeau's liberals gained support at expensive poly of conservatives poll suggest with a lot of just kind of weird snipes at the conservatives pretending as if somehow poly had become too radical and gone over the edge.
00:00:58.560 And a lot of Canadians were rejecting him and going back over to the liberals. Well, that was a lot to do about nothing because now the conservatives are back 17 points ahead in the newest abacus data poll.
00:01:10.380 And this is not just the only poll that's showing the reverse happening. Even after those two plus 10 polls came out for the conservatives, there was a lot of other polls still showing the conservatives up 12, 14, 15.
00:01:22.120 I mean, abacus is usually a little bit more conservative friendly. So I guess that was the shock that it was only plus 10. But so many people had pinned their hopes to a liberal comeback off of polls that would have still indicated the conservatives would win a majority.
00:01:36.780 It's quite insane to just see how much the liberal media is willing to bend over backwards in order to turn what is very much a bad data point for the liberals into a massive sort of sweeping victory for Justin Trudeau.
00:01:50.840 But I'm going to make more videos sort of breaking down some of the other polling results that we see from these polls.
00:01:56.820 But when you actually even look at the regionals that are coming out of this abacus data poll, this is not just a plus 17 popular vote win potentially.
00:02:05.260 This is a sweep of parliament. This is something where the conservatives could have like 230 seats and the liberals would be below 60 or 50.
00:02:13.660 This is a horrible result for the liberals and even a bad result for the NDP.
00:02:18.760 They're at 18 in this. That's neutral from abacus's last poll. They always say the plus or minus is based on what their last poll says.
00:02:25.940 Some pollsters say the plus or minus based on the federal election.
00:02:29.840 I even doubt that. I don't think that the NDP is going to do that well.
00:02:33.320 I think the liberals will do a bit better come election time just simply because they're kind of a default party for any center left Canadian.
00:02:40.440 And if the media really pushes hard against Polyev during the election, you're going to have some people act all offended.
00:02:46.400 Oh, I can't vote for I can't vote for Polyev. He's radical.
00:02:49.400 I'm going to go vote for Justin Trudeau because something something pure Polyevs like Trump because reasons. 1.00
00:02:56.100 Well, no actual reason. But, you know, supposedly there's a lot of reasons out there.
00:03:00.020 I hear or I see people posting about it all day long on social media still haven't found a similar policy between Trump and Polyev or even can or can anyone even explain a like take out Trump policy, explain why it's bad and then connect to Polyev.
00:03:14.300 Makes no sense to me. I also don't think that the PPC is going to be at five points.
00:03:18.260 I'm sorry to all the people watching this who are big PPC fans.
00:03:22.100 The problem with the PPC is that they do not prove like a lot of new parties do not prove that they can win seats.
00:03:28.260 And you could say, well, that's just like, you know, that's somehow to do with corruption or it's just people need to wake up more and then they'll realize they need to vote for us.
00:03:38.380 Really not how politics works. Whenever I see PPC guys online saying, like, just keep posting on social media.
00:03:44.540 Everyone's a sheeple except us. You know, the conservatives and the liberals are basically the same, all this stuff.
00:03:51.180 These people don't fundamentally understand politics that by just trying to create a stir on social media is not how you're going to reach the average person who is not terminally online looking at political issues.
00:04:02.080 You're not going to win that way. And even this 5%, I think these polls tend to overestimate how well the PPC does simply because PPC people are very likely to pick up the phone and tell you who they're voting for.
00:04:15.180 I also think that the Green Party could probably be doing better than 4%.
00:04:18.740 The only reason they only got 2% in the last race was because Anami Paul was their leader.
00:04:24.100 And because the Green Party has a deep issue with anti-Semitism, a bunch of people refused to run for the Greens while Anami was the leader.
00:04:31.900 So they didn't like, they only had like 70% of ridings with candidates, which makes you kind of seem like a lame duck party.
00:04:37.680 So a lot of people just didn't end up voting for them because they were like barely even present in the federal election.
00:04:44.280 But anyways, I just want to get back to just the idea of, well, what are the liberals going to do now with this plus 17 result?
00:04:51.540 They threw everything in the kitchen sink at pure poly over the last few months, called them conspiracy theorists, went after Leslie Lynn Lewis for supposedly being evil because she doesn't support the UN and whatnot.
00:05:03.620 I have that graphic right here that Mark Gerritsen was putting out.
00:05:07.620 They've, you know, they've gone after like Michelle Ferreri.
00:05:11.260 They've gone after other conservative MPs for supposedly being secretly bad, far right people.
00:05:17.080 And it's not worked.
00:05:18.500 It's almost like at this point, the liberals might actually have to start doing real policy work to reverse a bunch of the bad decisions they've made over the past eight years.
00:05:27.060 Now, they're not going to do that because the problem for the liberals is that it's run by Justin Trudeau's ego.
00:05:33.360 And over the last two federal elections, he thinks he's proven to himself that he's untouchable, that even though he can't win a majority,
00:05:40.400 the media is always going to come in and clean up for him and make sure that they suppress the ability for the conservatives to win.
00:05:45.620 It's not going to happen this time when there's a very obviously conservative leader running the party.
00:05:50.740 With O'Toole, Trudeau didn't really win as much as Aaron O'Toole failed to win because he wasn't conservative.
00:05:57.160 And I just want to quickly, again, comment on just how pathetic it was that so many people in the media were trying to pretend like there was a real chance for the liberals to come back.
00:06:06.580 These people are not neutral journalists. 0.87
00:06:08.520 They are liberal cheerleaders and stenographers.
00:06:11.080 This is what the polling trend looked like.
00:06:12.980 You see that very minor rise for the liberals and that very minor dip for the conservatives, just a little bit to the left of where the line is.
00:06:21.980 That's what they were counting on would be a massive comeback for the liberals.
00:06:26.660 The liberals have never been down this far in the polls since the 2011 election.
00:06:31.340 And yet we still have the media pretending like this is a two-horse race.
00:06:34.920 The fundraising numbers show that the liberals are actually closer to the MVP in yearly donations than the conservatives.
00:06:42.220 The conservatives are more than doubling the liberal fundraising numbers.
00:06:46.680 Even if the liberals came back in the polls, they wouldn't have the money to run an election.
00:06:50.760 That's why every single time I hear someone say, there's a spring election going up, there's a spring election that's going to happen.
00:06:56.140 No, it's not.
00:06:56.940 The liberals couldn't afford a spring election.
00:06:58.780 And it doesn't matter how much in-kind contributions they get through media coverage or potential illegal money they could get from China, there is not the ability for them to field candidates in every single riding and not be obviously so underfunded that a lot of these would just be token efforts in a lot of these ridings.
00:07:16.380 And even though they can't win them, when you're one of the natural governing party of Canada and you're running token candidates, that's what makes you truly look like you're about to lose the next election.
00:07:27.040 Even the conservatives will try and put up a good effort in some downtown Toronto riding just to prove that they're a national party.
00:07:32.740 When the liberals won't be able to run competent candidates in the city of Calgary, that's what's going to indicate to a lot of liberals elsewhere in the country that this party knows it's about to lose.
00:07:42.320 Anyways, that's it for me today.
00:07:44.360 You can give to my usual fundraising link in the description of this video, the give-send-go for my legal defense against a billionaire.
00:07:51.820 I'm winning it, but he's just trying to drag this out.
00:07:54.520 He had no evidence that we said anything wrong about him, yet he is still pursuing this lawsuit.
00:07:59.280 So it's cost me more than $25,000, but I will be fighting it to the end.
00:08:04.440 And then also, just a reminder again, I am running for the Calgary Signal Hill, Wyatt Claypool.
00:08:09.480 Sometimes I don't mention my names in these videos.
00:08:12.160 A lady mentioned I should start saying what my name is.
00:08:14.920 I am Wyatt Claypool.
00:08:16.380 So I'm running for the conservative nomination for Calgary Signal Hill.
00:08:20.700 So if you live in Calgary Signal Hill on the west side of Calgary, make sure to buy a membership and vote for me number one on your ballot whenever the nomination date takes place.
00:08:28.400 It's great I can make these videos because right now it is like negative 30 outside without the wind chill.
00:08:35.060 And so I door knocked yesterday when it was like negative 22.
00:08:38.260 That was very cold.
00:08:40.080 Now it's not even just cold outside.
00:08:41.860 It's just dangerous.
00:08:43.240 So I'm going to stay inside and do campaigning from video for a little bit.
00:08:49.080 Anyways, that should be it for me today, and I'll be back later with another video.