The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - December 05, 2024


Trudeau's Liberals falling into 3rd place in new polls!

Topics
Liberals polling polling on tax freeze Canada Post polling
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Angus Reid Justin Trudeau Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois Evan Scrimshaw Pierre Poilievre Brian Breguet Dave Coletti Mike Lignanieff Edmonton Verdard Moncton Verdun Harper
Justin Trudeau has ruined Canada and doesn't care Liberals go full Commie - Attack gun owners and private property

Episode Stats


Length

18 minutes

Words per minute

182.4

Word count

3,428

Sentence count

228

Harmful content

Toxicity

11

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A new poll from Angus Reid Research and Abacus Data has the Tories leading the Liberals by a single point in one poll, and in the other, the Liberals are only behind the federal NDP by one point. This is bad news for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada, because they need to stop being so sanctimoniously left-wing on every single issue.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I know it's still 10 months until the next federal election in Canada,
00:00:07.500 but I think it's safe to say that the election's winner has already been decided.
00:00:12.460 Barring something absolutely insane happening, Pierre Polyev and the Conservative Party of Canada are going to win a big majority.
00:00:20.520 The reason I look at polling now is really seeing where the Liberals are going to end up,
00:00:25.440 because I think that's going to determine whether or not the Conservatives are going to frankly have two or maybe four terms in government.
00:00:33.640 Because if the Liberals fall on their face super, super hard, like even worse than Mike Lignani if in 2011,
00:00:40.120 they might end up in the woods for a couple of decades before people will ever trust them to control the government again. 0.99
00:00:47.440 They're going to have to get rid of all the woke garbage. 1.00
00:00:49.520 They're going to have to stop being so just sanctimoniously left-wing on every single issue. 0.99
00:00:55.920 And the polling today demonstrates the desperate position the Liberals are currently in.
00:01:01.060 I have a new poll here from Angus Reid and Abacus Data.
00:01:05.260 In one poll, the Liberals are only leading the NDP by a single point.
00:01:09.680 And in the other, although it appears to be a tie, if you don't round the numbers up, the Liberals are behind the federal NDP.
00:01:17.300 If you ever feel inadequate in this life, I recommend to you mosey on over to 338.ca or .com or whatever it is,
00:01:26.800 and look at the Canadian federal polling, because that will convince you that at least you would probably be a better political party leader
00:01:34.260 than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh are.
00:01:38.280 They are awful at politics.
00:01:41.000 They just don't know what the average middle-class Canadian person thinks on the issues.
00:01:46.100 And I think the GST holiday proves it.
00:01:48.460 But first, let's look at the actual polling numbers, and then I want to talk about sort of the political implications
00:01:53.580 around some of the issues currently going on in the country right now.
00:01:57.280 But first, I just want to recommend, if you're not a subscriber, go and hit that subscribe button.
00:02:01.100 If you like the show, like this video, and if you notice anything you want to comment on, always leave me a comment.
00:02:06.780 I try and always look at them.
00:02:08.500 Anyways, so here are the numbers from Angus Reid.
00:02:12.080 They actually have a very big sample size for this poll, which ends up increasing the accuracy.
00:02:17.300 I actually also recommend you guys go follow some guy on X.
00:02:20.420 He's just an anonymous account, but he's a pretty good account, so I endorse him.
00:02:24.320 This is the current polling from Angus Reid, with 2,655 people polled.
00:02:30.120 The Conservative Party of Canada is getting 43%.
00:02:33.560 The NDP, 20%, and the Liberals, 20%.
00:02:38.280 And Bloc Quebecois, 11%, which is actually crazy for the Bloc, because they only need about 8% in order to win the majority of seats in Quebec.
00:02:45.980 11% would have them, like, sweeping everything outside of maybe 10 seats in Montreal and, like, one in Quebec City.
00:02:52.520 And with the Greens before, it would probably just mean they would maintain the two seats they have right now.
00:02:56.980 Now, this is, I don't even think I have to tell you, embarrassing for Justin Trudeau.
00:03:02.920 20% is, their vote is far more inefficient than the New Democrats' is.
00:03:08.940 So if they only get 20% of the vote, and I guarantee these polls are just taking out undecided voters,
00:03:15.580 so their actual amount of Canadians willing to say that they'll vote for them absolutely right now
00:03:19.580 is probably more like that one poll we saw from Main Street, where they're only at about 17% when you removed the undecideds, or 14%.
00:03:27.680 But 20% would be really thinly spread across the country, outside of small areas of concentration.
00:03:35.520 Certain maritime islands, Manitoba, like, yeah, like Manitoba, Winnipeg, there's a couple of seats there.
00:03:42.220 A couple of seats in Vancouver.
00:03:43.840 They would have a couple of seats in Toronto.
00:03:45.940 And then it would just be the island of Montreal.
00:03:47.720 They might as well, at this point, rename themselves the Montreal Party.
00:03:52.300 They don't serve any interests outside of people in Quebec who aren't separatists.
00:03:58.020 That's pretty much it.
00:03:58.900 Progressives in Quebec who are not separatists.
00:04:01.860 So let's move on to another poll here.
00:04:04.600 And again, the NDP's 20% isn't even exactly good.
00:04:07.540 I know that's technically higher than what they got in 2021.
00:04:11.000 I think they got like 17%, 18% in 2021.
00:04:13.300 But it's typical, the NDP always polls about five or six points higher than they actually clock in at on Election Day.
00:04:20.780 But here's Abacus Data's poll that has the Conservatives at 44%.
00:04:25.920 Both Angus Reid and Abacus have them leading the next closest party by 23%.
00:04:30.940 And in this poll, the Liberals are at 21% and the NDP are at 20%.
00:04:37.400 And we're only talking about, and again, another massive sample size, 2,700 people.
00:04:41.900 This is not a frivolous poll of 500 people like you'll get from some certain strategy firms and lobby groups that are usually tied in with one of the parties.
00:04:50.760 This is a poll that is attempting to be accurate.
00:04:53.060 Most pollsters are accurate or trying to be accurate because they're trying to sell their services to, you know, corporations and whatnot who want, you know, product surveying.
00:05:03.120 They want other sorts of economic surveys put out on their services and products and whatnot.
00:05:08.760 So they attempt to be pretty accurate here.
00:05:11.240 A 20%, 21% showing for the Liberals would probably net them about 10 to 15 seats less than the NDP because as terrible as Jagmeet Singh as a leader, and he is bad, his vote hasn't collapsed simply because with the Liberals bleeding out on the fuller politically, a lot of those voters will end up going to the NDP, even if more than two-thirds of them are probably going towards the Conservatives.
00:05:39.160 Jagmeet Singh is basically just benefiting from the fact that Trudeau is collapsing.
00:05:43.820 But imagine living at a time as an NDP leader where the center-left party, I'd say the Liberals are more just solidly left at this point, is losing support.
00:05:53.100 And you as the party that is just a half step more to their left cannot seem to hold on to any of those, can't seem to get any of those voters that are leaving.
00:06:02.640 And it's because Canadians have been turned off by left-wing politics in general.
00:06:05.720 But Jagmeet Singh here is benefiting from the fact that his party is very concentrated in union and progressive ridings, you know, ridings that have university campuses on them.
00:06:16.320 So he'll end up getting far more seats with 20% than the Liberals will get with 21%.
00:06:21.320 And the Conservatives with 44%, I'd ballpark them anywhere between 210 up to 240 seats.
00:06:28.800 That's realistic at this point.
00:06:31.380 Barring, again, something crazy happening and people suddenly turning on the Conservatives, which can always happen.
00:06:36.880 Politics are crazy and politics are very dirty in Canada.
00:06:40.200 I don't think there's a potential that they could lose.
00:06:43.100 But, you know, maybe they fall into having a slightly smaller majority.
00:06:46.640 But that is the territory of them absolutely sweeping the country.
00:06:50.260 Here, I think this is a good take from Evan Scrimshaw here, and I might end up going down the thread a little bit.
00:06:58.100 But he says, would the Liberals win 20 seats if this new Angus Reid poll was borne out?
00:07:03.360 Because 11% for the bloc is basically the entire Quebec caucus gone, and the rest of the country looks no better.
00:07:09.360 And I believe Brian Berguet, the former BC Conservative candidate for Vancouver, Lingara, who is himself a poll analyst, he ended up cutting in and saying, I think, that the Liberals would only end up getting about 12 seats in Quebec altogether, which is extremely low.
00:07:25.040 And in provinces like Ontario and the Maritimes in BC, they'd be maybe getting two or three seats in Ontario, one seat in a couple of different Maritime ridings, and then they'd maybe have, you know, three seats in Vancouver and two in Winnipeg.
00:07:39.540 That would just be a disaster area event.
00:07:41.820 And this is not outliers.
00:07:43.460 Every once in a while, you'll have some liberal TikToker or activist online saying, well, Mangus Reid himself is a Conservative.
00:07:50.020 Well, Davey Coletto at Abacus is not Liberal.
00:07:52.700 He's maybe not a lefty, but he's more default Liberal as a person than he is a Conservative.
00:07:59.900 And this is all of the polling.
00:08:01.540 Nobody is lying here.
00:08:03.100 This is how bad it truly is.
00:08:05.680 And you can even see, we're starting to see a lot of clumping with these dots around between the NDP and the Liberals.
00:08:12.640 Even a year ago, you go back from where we are now to just the end of the year in 2023.
00:08:17.820 They are far wider apart back then, where maybe the Liberals are only leading the NDP by two to four percent, maybe five percent, which is it's a wide enough lead that that's outside the margin of error.
00:08:31.420 And the NDP tends to underperform their polling because they're bad at campaigning.
00:08:35.260 But that was uncomfortable.
00:08:36.700 Now, when you're even attempting to win the popular vote in these polls from the NDP, that is a crisis.
00:08:43.560 So now let's jump over into this.
00:08:47.200 Oh, I think I had somebody.
00:08:48.520 I want to go check with Sheree Attiste here.
00:08:50.920 I'll bring this up on screen in a second because he does a good job of doing the seat modeling.
00:08:55.320 So this is the Angus Reid poll where the Liberals were behind the NDP or basically tied, but, you know, rounding within the rounding.
00:09:04.800 They would have been a little bit lower if you don't round.
00:09:06.800 This is what Sheree Attiste shows that this Angus Reid poll would result in.
00:09:11.120 Conservatives would get 233 seats, a boost of 114.
00:09:15.840 The bloc would win 52 seats.
00:09:18.060 NDP 34.
00:09:19.620 Liberals 22 only.
00:09:21.340 They'd lose 138 seats, and the Greens would win 2, not changing anything.
00:09:27.180 That is insane.
00:09:28.580 Look at the greater Toronto area here.
00:09:30.500 There's not a Liberal seat there.
00:09:33.620 Let's go to the island of Montreal.
00:09:36.440 Montreal is becoming bloc.
00:09:38.680 It's actually becoming more bloc.
00:09:40.640 Liberals would still come out with a plurality of seats, but the Conservatives would pick up one.
00:09:44.780 The NDP would pick up two.
00:09:46.440 This is literally all red right now, outside of the riding that the bloc just won in the by-election.
00:09:51.340 In Verdard, Imard, Verdun, or whatever.
00:09:55.700 This is insane.
00:09:57.240 Calgary, they lose their seat.
00:09:58.660 Edmonton, they no longer have their seat.
00:10:01.320 Greater Vancouver, they have a seat.
00:10:03.260 There is a seat in that entire area.
00:10:06.520 There is a couple places around Ottawa that they get.
00:10:09.300 Maritimes, a couple places.
00:10:10.720 Moncton, just because of the French vote around there.
00:10:14.300 What do you say other than this is a complete failure?
00:10:17.720 Now, I want to bring you to the polling on the current...
00:10:22.080 Actually, I don't need to bring this up.
00:10:23.360 I know what the polling numbers are, so you'll have to trust me on this, but it's accurate.
00:10:26.820 They polled people on what they thought about the GST, HST freeze.
00:10:30.820 And this is demonstrating just how misunderstood the Canadian public is to the Liberals and the NDP.
00:10:39.200 They think this was going to be a big vote-getter.
00:10:41.420 Oh, wow.
00:10:42.620 Like a GST, HST freeze?
00:10:44.920 Well, people are going to eat this up.
00:10:47.100 It's two months.
00:10:47.920 It's two months towards the tail end of the holiday season when people are starting to spend less anyways.
00:10:53.300 And the NDP and the Liberals think that this is what's going to make people come back to them when they're going to be doubling the carbon tax in April.
00:11:00.360 And then they also give people $250 in April to try and soften the blow.
00:11:04.140 But this freeze goes from December 14th to February 14th or 17th or whatever.
00:11:09.660 I think it's slightly more than two months.
00:11:11.820 Nobody cares.
00:11:13.280 And the polling shows it.
00:11:14.520 The Angus Reid poll shows that 9% of Canadians said that they would be more likely to vote for the Liberals because of the tax freeze.
00:11:21.920 And 63% said no change.
00:11:24.560 And I think 13% even said, I'm less likely to vote for the Liberals.
00:11:28.480 And really, you can discount the less likely and more likely people as probably being partisan, conservatives, and liberals saying the poll result or saying the polling answer that they think either helps the Liberals the most or hurts the Liberals the most.
00:11:41.420 Because if you're honest, most people just say no change.
00:11:44.260 They're still voting Liberal, they're still voting NDP, or they're still voting Conservative.
00:11:48.120 This hasn't budged public opinion an inch.
00:11:51.060 Just as none of the spending has.
00:11:53.300 Nobody's voting for the Liberals because of the dental program or the pharma care program.
00:11:57.560 It's just hand-me-outs.
00:11:58.900 Everyone knows that they were far better off when Harper was Prime Minister and they weren't given little goodies.
00:12:04.980 Especially because you have to pay for them.
00:12:06.600 You pay taxes.
00:12:07.760 Everyone knows that they're paying for the stuff anyways. 0.99
00:12:10.400 And the polling in other cases has shown whenever the Liberals fear-monger about pure poly of the Conservatives making cuts to public spending, to stupid bloated programs, people correctly see that that is just stupid fear-mongering and they think the government spends too much. 0.60
00:12:26.460 I've said it before, the Fraser Institute should give Justin Trudeau a lifetime achievement award. 0.95
00:12:31.580 The Canadian Taxpayer Federation should give him a lifetime achievement award because Trudeau has made all Canadians, and especially young Canadians, more conservative on fiscal issues.
00:12:42.760 Because as the Liberals keep spending more and more on useless garbage and as well as corruption, more and more people are realizing that maybe the government should have less control over the GDP of this country.
00:12:55.040 That they should have less revenues to play with because they're not doing a good job with what they have right now. 0.92
00:13:00.960 And in fact, we could probably lose a good 30% of government spending and services wouldn't be harmed at all.
00:13:06.780 We easily could fire tons of HR, administration, DEI, ESG nonsense, and nobody would actually be worse off.
00:13:16.200 In fact, they would be better off.
00:13:17.820 But here is the polling on the current – this is explaining more why the NDP are not doing very well.
00:13:24.980 So this is the polling on the Canada post-strike that's going on right now.
00:13:28.580 So here's a poll answer that says, even if you don't agree with either side entirely, whose argument do you agree with more?
00:13:36.780 In the past, unions always get a free ride in terms of polling.
00:13:41.120 They're always assumed to be the good guys because it's big business, even if it's Crown Corporation.
00:13:45.480 It's big business cramming down on workers.
00:13:48.480 They're not treating workers fairly.
00:13:50.420 Everyone knows that union workers are like the only people who have had wage growth in the past several years, especially the past four or five years.
00:13:58.560 And then you'll have some union people saying, oh, that just shows everyone should join a union.
00:14:02.840 No, that's not how that works.
00:14:04.540 The thing is, it's a minority of people who a majority of people are subsidizing.
00:14:09.140 A majority of people cannot subsidize a majority of people because it would just cause massive inflation and our economy would collapse.
00:14:15.560 But usually the unions would win these polls hands down.
00:14:19.640 But they've overstepped because they got so used to the liberal government and the Canadian public giving them whatever they wanted that now people are ticked.
00:14:27.040 And so it says, even if you don't agree with either side entirely, whose argument do you agree with them more?
00:14:33.000 Canada Post is coming in at 34 percent, even as they give them the sort of like padded title of the workers.
00:14:40.820 It really should just be the Canada Post Workers Union because it's not the workers. 0.93
00:14:45.720 I think most workers think this is ridiculous and stupid, that they're fighting for like absurdly higher wages, as well as they want gender surgeries and hormone therapies funded. 0.99
00:14:55.100 It's nuts. 0.99
00:14:56.200 So Canada Post, who shouldn't be winning this at all, is winning by 5 percent.
00:15:01.240 Workers have only 29 percent of people agreeing with them.
00:15:04.120 23 percent say neither.
00:15:05.460 And it's probably because they feel awkward siding with the corporation, but they probably are.
00:15:10.700 And then not sure can't say 14 percent.
00:15:13.300 That's unheard of in Canada to have a union losing this poll.
00:15:17.340 They can usually say the most absurd things they want and they will not lose.
00:15:21.600 Here's another one.
00:15:23.540 Here's a question that following the CUPW strike, and this is 3003 respondents, a big poll.
00:15:32.020 Here is the dark blue.
00:15:33.640 It says, followed it closely in the news and discussed it with friends and family, seen some news coverage and have had the odd conversation.
00:15:40.940 Just scanned the headlines, and this is the first time I'm hearing about it.
00:15:43.700 And it goes from blue, light blue, red, dark red.
00:15:46.860 Most people have heard about this.
00:15:48.140 So these are people not making uninformed opinions when they're saying that they agree with the Canada Post.
00:15:54.380 So have you been impacted by the CUPW strikes, all respondents?
00:15:58.380 Yes, a lot.
00:15:59.680 Yes, a little.
00:16:00.180 And not at all, because a lot of people are realizing that the unions are actually ending up impacting them negatively.
00:16:07.120 And yeah, this is it's bad.
00:16:12.820 I don't need to go.
00:16:13.880 I think this is all.
00:16:14.420 Yeah.
00:16:14.540 See, here's the here is the the political breakdown.
00:16:17.220 This is why it's so bad for the NDP.
00:16:18.700 They are disproportionately the people who agree with the workers are with the NDP.
00:16:24.680 But even the liberals, the bloc and the conservatives, the plurality of their people agree with Canada Post.
00:16:31.900 So the NDP is between a rock and a hard place.
00:16:34.820 Even 18 percent of NDP voters are still with Canada Post.
00:16:39.300 But the thing is that they're having to service a large portion of their base who agrees with the side that's being obtuse, which means that Jagmeet saying I've seen this on social media is doing a lot of poserish popular stuff of I stand with workers and we need more workers rights.
00:16:54.760 And also, for some reason, we need trans surgeries at Canada Post that he's ending up putting himself between a rock and a hard place where the average voter thinks that the workers are being unreasonable.
00:17:05.180 But the NDP are trying to court people are trying to support the workers, which means everyone sees the NDP is unreasonable.
00:17:12.300 The only party that is being explicit about wanting right back to work legislation are the conservatives.
00:17:19.280 So they're doing quite well.
00:17:20.360 They'll still criticize the liberals for having just scuffed services and the fact that there's so much administrative bloat that workers could have been getting paid better.
00:17:28.640 But overall, the conservatives are on the side of the plurality of Canadians on this one.
00:17:33.060 The liberals are in between, don't know what they're doing.
00:17:35.220 And the NDP are trying to appeal to the minority of people on this issue, a minority who might not even vote for them because they can't win in most ridings.
00:17:45.900 But yeah, that's it for me on that issue, I guess.
00:17:49.620 That might seem a little bit more minor, but I think these union issues are actually quite telling as to where the country is.
00:17:56.320 Again, usually you pull this stuff, 56, 60% of people think the workers are right. 0.89
00:18:01.540 People, Canada Post winning this poll is insane, is absolutely ridiculous.
00:18:06.660 The liberals losing a poll about their tax freeze, the fact that most people don't care about it at all, is startling for Canadian politics.
00:18:16.840 Because usually handouts do win your votes.
00:18:19.740 And now we are getting past the era of handouts doing anything for an incumbent party.
00:18:24.680 If anything, it's an insult to Canadians because they know that it's just a bait and switch in order to increase the carbon tax later.
00:18:32.200 So that's it for me today, guys.
00:18:34.160 If you want to subscribe to the channel, please do that.
00:18:36.100 Like the video, and if you want to support us, you can also donate to the legal fund.
00:18:40.400 It's the Give, Send, Go link in the description below as well as pinned at the top of the comments.
00:18:44.520 But I'll see you guys later with another topic at another time.