A new poll from Angus Reid Research and Abacus Data has the Tories leading the Liberals by a single point in one poll, and in the other, the Liberals are only behind the federal NDP by one point. This is bad news for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada, because they need to stop being so sanctimoniously left-wing on every single issue.
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I know it's still 10 months until the next federal election in Canada,
00:00:07.500but I think it's safe to say that the election's winner has already been decided.
00:00:12.460Barring something absolutely insane happening, Pierre Polyev and the Conservative Party of Canada are going to win a big majority.
00:00:20.520The reason I look at polling now is really seeing where the Liberals are going to end up,
00:00:25.440because I think that's going to determine whether or not the Conservatives are going to frankly have two or maybe four terms in government.
00:00:33.640Because if the Liberals fall on their face super, super hard, like even worse than Mike Lignani if in 2011,
00:00:40.120they might end up in the woods for a couple of decades before people will ever trust them to control the government again.
00:00:47.440They're going to have to get rid of all the woke garbage.
00:00:49.520They're going to have to stop being so just sanctimoniously left-wing on every single issue.
00:00:55.920And the polling today demonstrates the desperate position the Liberals are currently in.
00:01:01.060I have a new poll here from Angus Reid and Abacus Data.
00:01:05.260In one poll, the Liberals are only leading the NDP by a single point.
00:01:09.680And in the other, although it appears to be a tie, if you don't round the numbers up, the Liberals are behind the federal NDP.
00:01:17.300If you ever feel inadequate in this life, I recommend to you mosey on over to 338.ca or .com or whatever it is,
00:01:26.800and look at the Canadian federal polling, because that will convince you that at least you would probably be a better political party leader
00:01:34.260than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh are.
00:02:38.280And Bloc Quebecois, 11%, which is actually crazy for the Bloc, because they only need about 8% in order to win the majority of seats in Quebec.
00:02:45.98011% would have them, like, sweeping everything outside of maybe 10 seats in Montreal and, like, one in Quebec City.
00:02:52.520And with the Greens before, it would probably just mean they would maintain the two seats they have right now.
00:02:56.980Now, this is, I don't even think I have to tell you, embarrassing for Justin Trudeau.
00:03:02.92020% is, their vote is far more inefficient than the New Democrats' is.
00:03:08.940So if they only get 20% of the vote, and I guarantee these polls are just taking out undecided voters,
00:03:15.580so their actual amount of Canadians willing to say that they'll vote for them absolutely right now
00:03:19.580is probably more like that one poll we saw from Main Street, where they're only at about 17% when you removed the undecideds, or 14%.
00:03:27.680But 20% would be really thinly spread across the country, outside of small areas of concentration.
00:03:35.520Certain maritime islands, Manitoba, like, yeah, like Manitoba, Winnipeg, there's a couple of seats there.
00:03:58.900Progressives in Quebec who are not separatists.
00:04:01.860So let's move on to another poll here.
00:04:04.600And again, the NDP's 20% isn't even exactly good.
00:04:07.540I know that's technically higher than what they got in 2021.
00:04:11.000I think they got like 17%, 18% in 2021.
00:04:13.300But it's typical, the NDP always polls about five or six points higher than they actually clock in at on Election Day.
00:04:20.780But here's Abacus Data's poll that has the Conservatives at 44%.
00:04:25.920Both Angus Reid and Abacus have them leading the next closest party by 23%.
00:04:30.940And in this poll, the Liberals are at 21% and the NDP are at 20%.
00:04:37.400And we're only talking about, and again, another massive sample size, 2,700 people.
00:04:41.900This is not a frivolous poll of 500 people like you'll get from some certain strategy firms and lobby groups that are usually tied in with one of the parties.
00:04:50.760This is a poll that is attempting to be accurate.
00:04:53.060Most pollsters are accurate or trying to be accurate because they're trying to sell their services to, you know, corporations and whatnot who want, you know, product surveying.
00:05:03.120They want other sorts of economic surveys put out on their services and products and whatnot.
00:05:08.760So they attempt to be pretty accurate here.
00:05:11.240A 20%, 21% showing for the Liberals would probably net them about 10 to 15 seats less than the NDP because as terrible as Jagmeet Singh as a leader, and he is bad, his vote hasn't collapsed simply because with the Liberals bleeding out on the fuller politically, a lot of those voters will end up going to the NDP, even if more than two-thirds of them are probably going towards the Conservatives.
00:05:39.160Jagmeet Singh is basically just benefiting from the fact that Trudeau is collapsing.
00:05:43.820But imagine living at a time as an NDP leader where the center-left party, I'd say the Liberals are more just solidly left at this point, is losing support.
00:05:53.100And you as the party that is just a half step more to their left cannot seem to hold on to any of those, can't seem to get any of those voters that are leaving.
00:06:02.640And it's because Canadians have been turned off by left-wing politics in general.
00:06:05.720But Jagmeet Singh here is benefiting from the fact that his party is very concentrated in union and progressive ridings, you know, ridings that have university campuses on them.
00:06:16.320So he'll end up getting far more seats with 20% than the Liberals will get with 21%.
00:06:21.320And the Conservatives with 44%, I'd ballpark them anywhere between 210 up to 240 seats.
00:06:31.380Barring, again, something crazy happening and people suddenly turning on the Conservatives, which can always happen.
00:06:36.880Politics are crazy and politics are very dirty in Canada.
00:06:40.200I don't think there's a potential that they could lose.
00:06:43.100But, you know, maybe they fall into having a slightly smaller majority.
00:06:46.640But that is the territory of them absolutely sweeping the country.
00:06:50.260Here, I think this is a good take from Evan Scrimshaw here, and I might end up going down the thread a little bit.
00:06:58.100But he says, would the Liberals win 20 seats if this new Angus Reid poll was borne out?
00:07:03.360Because 11% for the bloc is basically the entire Quebec caucus gone, and the rest of the country looks no better.
00:07:09.360And I believe Brian Berguet, the former BC Conservative candidate for Vancouver, Lingara, who is himself a poll analyst, he ended up cutting in and saying, I think, that the Liberals would only end up getting about 12 seats in Quebec altogether, which is extremely low.
00:07:25.040And in provinces like Ontario and the Maritimes in BC, they'd be maybe getting two or three seats in Ontario, one seat in a couple of different Maritime ridings, and then they'd maybe have, you know, three seats in Vancouver and two in Winnipeg.
00:07:39.540That would just be a disaster area event.
00:08:05.680And you can even see, we're starting to see a lot of clumping with these dots around between the NDP and the Liberals.
00:08:12.640Even a year ago, you go back from where we are now to just the end of the year in 2023.
00:08:17.820They are far wider apart back then, where maybe the Liberals are only leading the NDP by two to four percent, maybe five percent, which is it's a wide enough lead that that's outside the margin of error.
00:08:31.420And the NDP tends to underperform their polling because they're bad at campaigning.
00:10:47.920It's two months towards the tail end of the holiday season when people are starting to spend less anyways.
00:10:53.300And the NDP and the Liberals think that this is what's going to make people come back to them when they're going to be doubling the carbon tax in April.
00:11:00.360And then they also give people $250 in April to try and soften the blow.
00:11:04.140But this freeze goes from December 14th to February 14th or 17th or whatever.
00:11:09.660I think it's slightly more than two months.
00:11:24.560And I think 13% even said, I'm less likely to vote for the Liberals.
00:11:28.480And really, you can discount the less likely and more likely people as probably being partisan, conservatives, and liberals saying the poll result or saying the polling answer that they think either helps the Liberals the most or hurts the Liberals the most.
00:11:41.420Because if you're honest, most people just say no change.
00:11:44.260They're still voting Liberal, they're still voting NDP, or they're still voting Conservative.
00:11:48.120This hasn't budged public opinion an inch.
00:12:07.760Everyone knows that they're paying for the stuff anyways.
00:12:10.400And the polling in other cases has shown whenever the Liberals fear-monger about pure poly of the Conservatives making cuts to public spending, to stupid bloated programs, people correctly see that that is just stupid fear-mongering and they think the government spends too much.
00:12:26.460I've said it before, the Fraser Institute should give Justin Trudeau a lifetime achievement award.
00:12:31.580The Canadian Taxpayer Federation should give him a lifetime achievement award because Trudeau has made all Canadians, and especially young Canadians, more conservative on fiscal issues.
00:12:42.760Because as the Liberals keep spending more and more on useless garbage and as well as corruption, more and more people are realizing that maybe the government should have less control over the GDP of this country.
00:12:55.040That they should have less revenues to play with because they're not doing a good job with what they have right now.
00:13:00.960And in fact, we could probably lose a good 30% of government spending and services wouldn't be harmed at all.
00:13:06.780We easily could fire tons of HR, administration, DEI, ESG nonsense, and nobody would actually be worse off.
00:13:50.420Everyone knows that union workers are like the only people who have had wage growth in the past several years, especially the past four or five years.
00:13:58.560And then you'll have some union people saying, oh, that just shows everyone should join a union.
00:14:04.540The thing is, it's a minority of people who a majority of people are subsidizing.
00:14:09.140A majority of people cannot subsidize a majority of people because it would just cause massive inflation and our economy would collapse.
00:14:15.560But usually the unions would win these polls hands down.
00:14:19.640But they've overstepped because they got so used to the liberal government and the Canadian public giving them whatever they wanted that now people are ticked.
00:14:27.040And so it says, even if you don't agree with either side entirely, whose argument do you agree with them more?
00:14:33.000Canada Post is coming in at 34 percent, even as they give them the sort of like padded title of the workers.
00:14:40.820It really should just be the Canada Post Workers Union because it's not the workers.
00:14:45.720I think most workers think this is ridiculous and stupid, that they're fighting for like absurdly higher wages, as well as they want gender surgeries and hormone therapies funded.
00:15:33.640It says, followed it closely in the news and discussed it with friends and family, seen some news coverage and have had the odd conversation.
00:15:40.940Just scanned the headlines, and this is the first time I'm hearing about it.
00:15:43.700And it goes from blue, light blue, red, dark red.
00:16:18.700They are disproportionately the people who agree with the workers are with the NDP.
00:16:24.680But even the liberals, the bloc and the conservatives, the plurality of their people agree with Canada Post.
00:16:31.900So the NDP is between a rock and a hard place.
00:16:34.820Even 18 percent of NDP voters are still with Canada Post.
00:16:39.300But the thing is that they're having to service a large portion of their base who agrees with the side that's being obtuse, which means that Jagmeet saying I've seen this on social media is doing a lot of poserish popular stuff of I stand with workers and we need more workers rights.
00:16:54.760And also, for some reason, we need trans surgeries at Canada Post that he's ending up putting himself between a rock and a hard place where the average voter thinks that the workers are being unreasonable.
00:17:05.180But the NDP are trying to court people are trying to support the workers, which means everyone sees the NDP is unreasonable.
00:17:12.300The only party that is being explicit about wanting right back to work legislation are the conservatives.
00:17:20.360They'll still criticize the liberals for having just scuffed services and the fact that there's so much administrative bloat that workers could have been getting paid better.
00:17:28.640But overall, the conservatives are on the side of the plurality of Canadians on this one.
00:17:33.060The liberals are in between, don't know what they're doing.
00:17:35.220And the NDP are trying to appeal to the minority of people on this issue, a minority who might not even vote for them because they can't win in most ridings.
00:17:45.900But yeah, that's it for me on that issue, I guess.
00:17:49.620That might seem a little bit more minor, but I think these union issues are actually quite telling as to where the country is.
00:17:56.320Again, usually you pull this stuff, 56, 60% of people think the workers are right.
00:18:01.540People, Canada Post winning this poll is insane, is absolutely ridiculous.
00:18:06.660The liberals losing a poll about their tax freeze, the fact that most people don't care about it at all, is startling for Canadian politics.
00:18:16.840Because usually handouts do win your votes.
00:18:19.740And now we are getting past the era of handouts doing anything for an incumbent party.
00:18:24.680If anything, it's an insult to Canadians because they know that it's just a bait and switch in order to increase the carbon tax later.