The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - August 02, 2023


Trudeau's Liberals Looking Broke Ahead of the 2025 Election

Topics
fundraising numbers fundraising for Liberals
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau George Jahal Pierre Poilievre Papineau O'Toole
Wokeism in Government is a Long-Term Threat to Canada Liberals Extort Facebook And Wonder Why Canadian News Got Blocked

Episode Stats


Length

6 minutes

Words per minute

205.9

Word count

1,418

Sentence count

58


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Second quarter fundraising numbers for Canadian politics are out, and it is absolutely abysmal for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. The Tories raised $4.8 million more than the Liberals in the second quarter, and the NDP raised $1.7 million.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.240 The second quarter fundraising numbers for Canadian politics are out, and it is absolutely abysmal for Justin Trudeau.
00:00:06.780 Now, you thought that the polling numbers were already bad for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.
00:00:10.440 They're like 7 to 10 points behind the Conservatives.
00:00:12.860 That's not only meaning that the Conservatives are definitely going to win the most seats,
00:00:16.340 but the Conservatives could even win a majority government with around 38, 40 percent
00:00:20.900 because the Liberals and the NDP are so divided up right now.
00:00:24.740 But the fundraising numbers are even worse for Justin Trudeau simply because it's going to hamper his ability to actually put together a campaign.
00:00:33.260 This is why everyone always mocks the NDP every time that there's a poll that comes out that shows that they're at 24 percent or whatever,
00:00:39.460 and they think that they've really hit their stride.
00:00:41.720 Well, maybe we'll be able to win, you know, 50 seats this election.
00:00:44.540 It's never going to happen because even if that 23 percent number is actually reflective of reality
00:00:49.940 and there is that many Canadians out there who would be willing to vote for the NDP,
00:00:53.020 the problem for the NDP is that they always have like a fifth of the budget of the Conservatives
00:00:57.760 and the Liberals going into a federal election.
00:01:00.300 That means that they have very little money for their individual campaigns in each riding.
00:01:04.220 That means they have far less lawn signs, they have far less volunteers,
00:01:07.020 and they have a very big problem in driving out their vote on election day.
00:01:10.780 So whenever they have those 20, 22, 23 percent numbers in the polls,
00:01:15.160 they always end up with just 16 or 17 percent actually showing up and voting for them.
00:01:19.140 And that's despite the NDP actually having usually a fairly wide appeal across the country
00:01:24.220 in the sense it doesn't really matter which province you're in.
00:01:27.060 The NDP is relatively familiar to you, whereas the Liberals actually kind of have the opposite issue,
00:01:31.960 where the thing is the party is fairly popular in Canada in terms of seats,
00:01:36.240 but in geographic territories, there's a lot of provinces that are borderline locked out of winning seats,
00:01:41.620 and that's why they have to rely so heavily on the 905, Vancouver, Montreal,
00:01:45.400 and a lot of the Atlantic provinces.
00:01:46.680 But the Liberals are now sliding into the NDP's problem.
00:01:51.120 The second quarter fundraising numbers are absolutely abysmal for them.
00:01:55.200 I'll just flash them up on screen here.
00:01:56.640 So the Conservatives were able to bring in $8 million in the second quarter.
00:02:00.480 The Liberals brought in about $3.2 million, and the NDP brought in $1.7 million.
00:02:05.800 Now, if you notice there, the Liberals are actually closer to the fundraising numbers of the NDP
00:02:10.680 than they are to the Conservatives.
00:02:12.000 The Conservatives more than doubled the Liberals' fundraising numbers.
00:02:18.380 The Conservatives raised $4.8 million more than the Liberals brought in in the second quarter.
00:02:24.160 And this has been going on for multiple quarters.
00:02:25.940 This is not just a second quarter anomaly.
00:02:28.080 It happened in the first quarter of 2023, it happened in the last quarter of 2022, it happened in the previous one.
00:02:32.760 And especially during a leadership election, a party is almost destined to bring in more money than the Liberals.
00:02:39.040 If you're the Conservatives in the leadership election, you're going to out-fundraise everyone just simply because it brings a lot of interest into the party.
00:02:45.240 But even then, we're past the honeymoon period for Pierre Polyev's leadership, and he's still absolutely wrecking or crushing the fundraising numbers.
00:02:52.640 Now, the thing with the Liberals is that they never really need to fundraise more than the Conservatives to win an election,
00:02:59.640 simply because, like I said before, they're very geographically concentrated for a party.
00:03:04.200 They don't really need to compete too much in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba.
00:03:07.380 They do a little bit of spending in the sort of Vancouver area of British Columbia, and then, you know, again, like southern and central Ontario, the Maritimes, and then you have Montreal.
00:03:21.200 The problem here, though, is that usually they're somewhere in the ballpark of the Conservatives.
00:03:25.380 It's that the Conservatives have $8 million and the Liberals raised $5 million or something like that.
00:03:29.800 It's never that they're literally being doubled.
00:03:31.900 Now, this, why I compare them to the NDP is that we could see an election where Justin Trudeau has, you know, 100, I forget, I think he has like 140 or so, whatever MPs, probably more than that, I should check.
00:03:44.780 But he might have to pick and choose which incumbent Liberal to fund.
00:03:48.840 He might not have enough money to fund all of their re-election campaigns, so he's going to have to get very serious on who he thinks can actually win their races.
00:03:56.680 He might not think that George Jehal in Calgary can hold on to his seat, so he might just defund George Jehal and say, hey, George, go find your own money.
00:04:05.120 The Liberal, you know, central party is not giving you any more money.
00:04:09.640 Justin Trudeau might have to even defund his own re-election campaign because he's obviously going to win, so he's just going to have a bare-bones skeleton crew out there in Papineau so that he can shovel his money around the sort of donut of the 905 in order to hold on to that area.
00:04:23.220 And again, this is, and I don't think that Justin Trudeau is even going to do that, in the sense that I don't think Justin Trudeau has the ego to admit that he sort of bankrupted his own party, and now they have to reorganize and be more fiscally conservative.
00:04:36.660 The guy does not have a fiscally conservative bone in his body, so he's going to have to, he's probably just going to run a very bloated national campaign that's going to take on a lot of debt, and it's going to end up probably running afoul of Elections Canada.
00:04:49.860 All this said, I don't think the Conservatives should ever rest on their laurels and think that they're probably going to win simply because of the fundraising numbers.
00:04:58.200 They are going to want to keep up the pressure, and this is where I completely disagree with the Toronto Sun saying that Pierre Polyev should basically try and acting more like O'Toole as if he's going to somehow alienate, you know, moderate voters by using his sort of like hard-edged approach to politics.
00:05:14.020 I think that's really why he's popular and why he's bringing in so many donations.
00:05:17.940 Again, when the Conservatives are winning, not only when it comes to fundraising numbers overall, but when they're actually, their per capita donation is much lower than the Liberals,
00:05:28.300 it demonstrates that the average person is coming and giving them their 50 bucks, that they actually believe that the Conservatives can win and are actually going to alleviate their problems.
00:05:36.240 So giving them this $50, giving them this $100, or even just $20, that this is actually going to benefit them.
00:05:42.880 The Liberals are only, are just basically down to their big donors because average Canadians do not actually have confidence that voting Liberal is going to affect their lives in a positive manner.
00:05:53.100 So I think combined with the fact that the Conservatives are up by 10% and the Liberals are down so much in the fundraising,
00:06:00.520 I think that you're going to see the election put off until 2025, and Justin Trudeau is going to throw everything at the wall to create an anti-Conservative controversy,
00:06:10.000 to basically scaremonger among Canadians, to donating to him, to funding his party, so he can maybe hold on to a minority government come 2025.
00:06:17.680 Because I can guarantee you, the Liberal benches are so weak right now, they could not replace Justin Trudeau,
00:06:22.840 neither does Justin Trudeau's ego allow him to be replaced.
00:06:26.600 Anyways, thanks for watching this video, and I just want to quickly plug my legal fundraiser on being sued by a Chinese billionaire.
00:06:32.680 I've already paid $15,000 or more into defending myself.
00:06:37.000 I'm probably going to win the case at the same time.
00:06:39.240 It is taking a chunk out of me, so if you could pitch in with $5, $20, or I don't know, being a crazy good person giving you $1,000.
00:06:46.380 Just kidding, don't actually give me that much money, I'm not that important.
00:06:49.740 But if you can donate, that would be fantastic, and I'll see you in my next video.