The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Trudeau's Liberals Polling As Bad As The NDP

00:00:00.000 The polling is getting so bad for the Liberals going into the next federal election that at this point I would just advise them, if I wasn't advised to the Liberals, that they should effectively just try and throw in the towel as early as possible, hold a snap election, lose it really fast so then they can get past this Trudeau era of the Liberal Party.

00:00:17.380 Holding on for another two years is not going to benefit them at all. Right now, if anything, if they hold on, they're just going to have more voters resenting the fact that they just held on as long as humanly possible while delivering policies that nobody wants in any way, shape or form.

00:00:31.900 But the reason why I think that would actually help them is the polling is getting so bad.

00:00:37.240 If they fall any further, Justin Trudeau would be at risk of performing as bad, if not worse, as Michael Ignatieff did in 2011.

00:00:44.480 So at least by getting the election out of the way now, maybe he can ride high and have like a 24 percent turnout on Election Day in terms of the voter percentage.

00:00:53.100 They can win some seats. They can hold on to most of the stuff that they have and they can move on with a new leader.

00:00:58.260 Justin Trudeau can tip his hat to people and then go on a beach vacation for the rest of his life.

00:01:03.040 That would be the smart thing for the Liberals to do. And I know some people don't like me giving advice to the Liberals, but don't worry.

00:01:08.600 They're never going to actually listen to me. That would be a smart thing to do.

00:01:12.020 And the Liberals are not exactly on board with doing smart things these days.

00:01:15.560 But I want to go to the polling because I, for the longest time, had been saying, yeah, the Conservatives are ahead anywhere from 7 to 14 points.

00:01:23.020 How wrong was I? I had not actually checked in on a lot of the recent polling for a long time.

00:01:28.260 And I kept saying that 7 to 14, 7 to 14 kind of range. Right now, it's more like a 12 to 18 or 22 percent lead.

00:01:36.420 A Nanos poll just came out and the Conservatives have a 22 point lead over the Liberals.

00:01:40.640 And the Liberals are almost doing as bad as the NDP. 22 percent for the NDP and 20 percent or 20 percent for the NDP, 22 percent for the Liberals.

00:01:48.440 That's scary because that could be a range where the Liberals might win less seats than the NDP, because the NDP is one of those parties that has very concentrated votes in university towns on some very union heavy industrial sort of centers like Hamilton and whatnot.

00:02:03.500 But the Liberals have kind of like a very thinly spread smear of voters.

00:02:07.240 They have a much more efficient voter base than the Conservatives because they have a lot of concentration in certain provinces where the Conservatives can win, you know, seats anywhere in Canada.

00:02:15.960 But it's a little bit more difficult for them. But right now, the Liberals might be competing to see if they're going to fall into third place like they did under Gnadyev, this time under Trudeau.

00:02:24.700 And imagine that you have the name recognition, the brand recognition of the Trudeaus, and you're failing this hardened election where you have the media on your side.

00:02:33.220 You have a lot of like the nonprofit groups on your side. You have even foreign interference on your side.

00:02:39.260 And you somehow cannot claw your way within 10 points of the Conservatives. You're literally 22 points behind.

00:02:45.740 That is basically a complete rejection of the Liberals by their own base. If even the Liberals were able to hold on to most of their voters, they wouldn't be doing this bad.

00:02:55.880 This is signaling that all they have left is the orange Liberal hyper-progressive base.

00:03:01.680 Any voters who are voting for the Liberals because they kind of liked the economic policies have fully abandoned them at this point.

00:03:07.180 And this is where I've said multiple times, the Liberals cannot get rid of Justin Trudeau.

00:03:11.320 It doesn't matter how bad he's doing. Right now, the party's stuck between a rock and a hard place.

00:03:16.680 Justin Trudeau has a very strong social progressive base. It's not strong enough to even come close to winning an election, but it's what keeps him in power in the Liberals.

00:03:25.900 So if the Liberals try and swap out for a Mark Carney or a Chrystia Freeland, they lose the hyper-progressive base because they basically follow Justin Trudeau around like a cult leader.

00:03:34.820 But if they swapped into Mark Carney, yeah, they could win back some Liberal voters who, for some reason, are just against voting Conservative and will only do it if Trudeau's still the leader.

00:03:44.360 They'll win some of those people. But a lot of the hyper-progressives might then go and vote for Jagmeet Singh, which might actually allow the MVP to dig a little bit into sort of downtown Toronto more.

00:03:53.500 But, you know, the Liberals aren't going to do that. Effectively, what they should do is just let Trudeau lose a very fast election, like I said, and then basically say, hey, it's a new era for the Liberal Party.

00:04:04.580 It won't be. They're still going to be awful. But they can pretend like we've moved on to a new era by getting rid of Trudeau in a very fast election.

00:04:11.500 If they drag it out, people are only going to see them as just some horribly out-of-touch legacy party who was holding on to power because they know Canadians don't want them around.

00:04:21.780 That's what killed social credit in BC and Alberta back in the day, is that they really didn't have any reason to exist anymore.

00:04:29.380 And rather than giving people a fast election, then reforming themselves very quickly for the next election,

00:04:34.220 they end up holding on with, like, to, like, they end up holding on with a death grip to their governments in those areas.

00:04:40.100 And then people just saw them as just some, like, legacy party that has no real reason to stick around anymore.

00:04:46.320 Anyways, I just want to go into some of the other polling because with this Nanos poll, there was also an Abacus data poll that I'm going to be talking about later today on the Richard Serrett show.

00:04:54.760 I believe it's an hour. So in an hour, if I put out this video, tune in at 5.15, like, you know, Eastern time to listen to me.

00:05:01.820 But here's the Abacus data poll. 40% Conservatives, 26% Liberals.

00:05:06.240 So they're doing a little bit better on this one than in the Nanos poll.

00:05:10.200 But look at the seat projections. 204 seats for the Conservatives with a 77% swing in favor of the Conservatives.

00:05:17.220 87 seats are going to be lost by the Liberals. And, like, wow, that's pretty horrifying.

00:05:23.200 This one shows the NDP doing worse, but those extra few points, like those 4% higher polling in this poll compared to the Nanos one,

00:05:30.700 is going to capture the Liberals a lot of seats. It's kind of that crossover point.

00:05:34.640 If you can cross over 20% decisively, that's when you start getting dozens of extra seats.

00:05:40.360 When you're kind of around that 20 and below area, that's when you can only win a couple dozen seats.

00:05:45.620 And that's really it because your vote's very, very concentrated unless you're the bloc where you only run in Quebec.

00:05:51.800 But the great thing for here, like, here with the polling right now is that you do not,

00:05:56.320 the Conservatives do not have to rely on the bloc whatsoever for votes.

00:05:59.980 They, again, remember, they were the ones who held up the vote and they voted down the motion to get rid of the carbon tax on all home heating.

00:06:07.580 You cannot rely on ally with the bloc because at the end of the day, they're more loyal to the Quebec provincial government.

00:06:12.960 So if the Quebec provincial government has a carbon tax like it does, they are not going to get rid of the carbon tax federally

00:06:17.700 because that would be benefiting English Canada over French Canada.

00:06:21.340 And that's the only thing that they really stand for in Parliament is just keeping this incredibly slanted balance

00:06:26.760 where Quebec always has to benefit more than the rest of the country or they're going to, you know, storm out of the room upset.

00:06:32.460 I do want to plug David Colletto from the Abacus Data.

00:06:35.360 I think they're one of the better pollsters out there for looking up popularity numbers of the leaders and different polling.

00:06:41.900 So make sure to follow him on Twitter or X.

00:06:43.780 But here's the actual polling from all the firms over the past, you know, like a month and a half or so.

00:06:50.940 The lowest I can find is plus 11 for the Conservatives.

00:06:53.620 And the highest now we have is the Nanos numbers with plus 22.

00:06:58.140 The Liberals just don't have a chance of getting back.

00:07:00.580 And that's why it's actually very good that we have Pierre Polyev now outwardly coming out when he was touring Richmond Hill

00:07:05.440 saying that he is affirmatively against gender theory in schools.

00:07:09.520 He doesn't just vaguely stand for parental rights.

00:07:11.160 He specifically stands against the thing that the parental rights movement is going after.

00:07:15.520 That being SOGI123, all of the hyper-progressive sexual ed content being injected into the classroom.

00:07:23.160 And I just want to take a side note here because I'm running for the Conservative nomination for Calgary Signal Hill.

00:07:28.160 So shameless plug, vote for me if you live in that writing or get any of your friends and family in that area, sign up and vote for me.

00:07:33.320 But I had someone on one of the ads I was running in the area saying that I was being creepy

00:07:37.440 because I want SOGI123 out of the classroom because I don't want the sexual ed content being taught in the classroom 0.99

00:07:43.320 because of how disgusting it is.

00:07:44.380 And they're like, this is the liberal frame of mind of how to argue whenever you've been caught pushing a bad policy.

00:07:50.180 They're like, that's creepy that you're talking about sex ed being taught to children.

00:07:54.440 Or why are you caring about all the sexual content being taught to children?

00:07:57.640 That's weird.

00:07:58.460 I'm like, I'm literally the one saying we shouldn't teach it because it's highly inappropriate.

00:08:02.300 But the liberals are only good at projection.

00:08:04.400 So if you complain about something that they're doing, then you're playing, this is culture war politics.

00:08:09.580 This is very divisive.

00:08:10.500 This is very bad.

00:08:11.320 But if the liberals are dividing people, then it's very good because they're dividing out all the divisive people.

00:08:16.020 But if you call them out for dividing people, then you're being divisive.

00:08:19.640 It's incredibly obnoxious.

00:08:21.580 But that's just how it goes in Canada these days.

00:08:24.020 They have no arguments left. 0.98

00:08:25.220 So their only argument is to basically call hypocrite or basically say that you're, you know, you're being divisive, you're unkind, you're mean. 0.98

00:08:33.520 Are our policies bad? 0.99

00:08:34.740 Oh, who cares about policies? 0.99

00:08:36.120 You're being terrible and evil and awful. 0.98

00:08:38.580 Why?

00:08:39.040 Oh, because we oppose the policies that the liberal government passed that have been complete failures or have been dividing Canadians.

00:08:46.200 Whatever.

00:08:47.060 It's just so annoying.

00:08:48.520 Anyways, but I like this little poll that also came out from the Abacus numbers.

00:08:52.500 And this is why I like Abacus a lot.

00:08:53.900 They do really interesting stuff like this.

00:08:55.940 These were people who voted liberal in 2021 who have now have a negative impression of Justin Trudeau.

00:09:01.520 And I think this is the buttons that the Conservative Party needs to be pushing on.

00:09:05.120 77% of them said that they're just tired of them.

00:09:07.600 86% said they don't.

00:09:08.620 He doesn't have a clear vision for the country.

00:09:10.420 And 91% said he's inauthentic and phony.

00:09:13.760 That's where I think that the main one here that they need to push on is the fact that Justin Trudeau's entire program has failed and that he effectively is taking the country nowhere.

00:09:23.340 This is where, not that you should exactly market it exactly that way, always just talk about the policy failures.

00:09:29.060 But this is what I've talked about in other videos when I say why the Conservatives lost in 2021, 2019, and 2015, but the Conservatives won in 2011.

00:09:38.320 In 2011, the Conservatives had a small government vision for Canada and were calling out the Liberals like Ignatia for just visiting or that they're just being disruptive.

00:09:46.500 Instead of they're mad because they don't form the majority and they're trying to put together this ridiculous coalition government, that worked well.

00:09:52.360 Basically, it's left-wing parties trying to hijack the government even though nobody elected them in large numbers.

00:09:57.780 And then by the time they go to 2015, Trudeau now has the momentum because the Harper campaign, in my opinion, ran a very much keep us in power because the other guys aren't as good as us.

00:10:08.640 That's not compelling.

00:10:09.460 You have to have a vision and as silly as the Sunny Ways slogan is, it's very good marketing because it's saying, I'm a breath of fresh air, I'm transparent, and the Harper government, by contrast, is dark and insular.

00:10:20.240 That was very good.

00:10:21.540 But the Conservatives couldn't win back power in 2019 and 2021 because the campaign was just, hey, Justin Trudeau is not that great. 0.99

00:10:27.600 He's like, yeah, he sucks. 0.89

00:10:29.780 And then 2021, we're like, let's secure the future. 0.96

00:10:32.560 And Trudeau has been indecisive and he should have passed, like he should have mandated vaccines harder like Aaron O'Toole's campaign was.

00:10:39.780 And that we disagree with his carbon tax and we have our own carbon tax.

00:10:43.520 That's not a vision.

00:10:44.640 That's a pivot.

00:10:45.560 No one's voting for the Conservatives for a pivot vision.

00:10:48.040 You need to actually give a vision that says, like Polly Ebb has been doing and a lot of other candidates for the Conservatives have been doing, is that we want a country with less extremists in it who are laundering money.

00:10:58.380 We want smaller government.

00:10:59.560 We want parents raising their own kids, not schools and all this stuff.

00:11:04.340 That's highly popular.

00:11:05.400 You paint a vision of a better world where people are able to control everything themselves.

00:11:09.340 They can start a small business with the government killing it during lockdowns or through regulations.

00:11:13.900 You sort of paint a picture of people having being very decisive in their own lives that people can do what they want.

00:11:19.200 Whereas in 2019 and 2021, it was like a what I would call a very commerce based approach to politics.

00:11:26.220 It's saying, hey, we'll give you 50 bucks if you put your kids in soccer.

00:11:29.420 You'll get this tax credit if you do this.

00:11:31.360 Hey, we'll have a small business government grant program.

00:11:34.400 It's so bureaucratic and like bloated and sweaty way of doing politics.

00:11:38.680 It's not that, hey, we're going to lower taxes so you can get along with your own life.

00:11:42.300 You get to go on a government website and fill out a bunch of forms and by some bureaucrat, hopefully not messing it up, you might get a little bit money back on your tax.

00:11:50.440 That's not a vision.

00:11:51.620 That's just that's bureaucracy.

00:11:53.940 Who cares?

00:11:54.520 I don't want to vote.

00:11:55.280 Like, that's why I'm most happy O'Toole lost in 21 because if O'Toole won, one, the liberal, the conservatives would have only had a minority government that maybe would have lasted a year and a half.

00:12:04.400 And then the liberals would have probably come back because Aaron O'Toole had no vision.

00:12:07.940 And he would have immediately tainted the conservative brand as basically being this Mulroney-esque diet liberal kind of approach to politics.

00:12:16.100 It was very divisive.

00:12:17.420 So I'm happy he lost so then we could have Pierre Polyev.

00:12:20.800 But going forward now, I think what needs to happen is that the conservatives definitely should not fall into the gear of saying, okay, let's calm down.

00:12:30.100 Let's act governmental.

00:12:31.420 Let's have Pierre Polyev be more prime ministerial.

00:12:34.360 The reason he's gotten popular is he's calling out all the nonsense from the Trudeau era without reservation.

00:12:39.980 The problem with O'Toole and Scheer was that their criticisms were almost sort of backhanded a little bit.

00:12:46.640 It wasn't a direct criticism.

00:12:48.200 It's basically saying, when I say backhanded, I mean backhanded to conservatives.

00:12:51.840 It's basically saying, no, conservatives, your criticisms of Trudeau aren't correct.

00:12:55.300 It's actually that, oh, he's phony.

00:12:57.580 He's not authentic.

00:12:58.820 Oh, he's not listening to people.

00:13:00.220 It's like, who cares?

00:13:01.560 I wouldn't care if my politician wasn't listening to me if he was doing all the right things and the economy was good. 0.94

00:13:06.560 The problem is that Justin Trudeau is actually a very vile, narcissistic person who doesn't care if he's bankrupting Canadians. 0.81

00:13:13.600 That's what you have to do. 0.96

00:13:14.620 He thinks that parents are extremists.

00:13:16.420 That's what you have to call him out for.

00:13:17.560 Not just that we have a competing vision or something like that and that he needs to be nicer.

00:13:22.800 Who cares if he's not nice?

00:13:24.120 He's wrong. 0.98

00:13:25.020 That's why he's awful. 0.98

00:13:26.000 He's a wrong, narcissistic dweeb who will not actually let – who's basically holding on to power in spite of the fact that nobody likes his policies anymore. 0.97

00:13:35.440 That's what you have to do when you're marketing against him. 0.90

00:13:38.320 But anyways, hopefully you don't hate listening to me ramble, but I have my normal Give, Send, Go legal fundraiser in the description of this video linked there.

00:13:46.260 If you want to throw in $5, $50, maybe $1,000.

00:13:49.760 I'm just kidding.

00:13:50.720 But someone actually did give me $300 and that blew my mind.

00:13:54.580 I'm very thankful for that.

00:13:55.940 But I have my legal case still going on with this billionaire. 1.00

00:13:59.640 It's a stupid defamation case. 0.99

00:14:01.580 I feel like I'm getting very close to winning it. 1.00

00:14:03.400 He didn't even submit evidence barely during the evidence submission phase.

00:14:07.260 It was like he submitted his LinkedIn profile as evidence. 0.90

00:14:10.080 It's completely ridiculous.

00:14:10.980 So if you want to contribute to that, it really helps me pay for costs.

00:14:14.500 This thing is now costing me over $20,000 at this point.

00:14:17.840 And what else you can do to help me out is if you live in Calgary Signal Hill, buy a conservative party membership to vote for me or get any of your friends and family who also live in the riding to sign up and vote for me whenever the nomination race comes up.

00:14:30.580 We want to make sure we have real conservatives.

00:14:32.320 So make sure to vote for me, number one, or Michael Kim, number two, for the riding because there's a lot of red Tories and failed MLAs running in the area. 0.59

00:14:39.760 And I'd really like us to have, you know, fresh conservatives who actually stand for conservatism, not just constantly, you know, dividing up policy and running on sort of half principles like, oh, I oppose the carbon tax.

00:14:52.700 Who cares?

00:14:53.340 The carbon tax is obviously awful.

00:14:54.920 It's not a statement.

00:14:55.720 But people who don't support parental rights, who don't support gun rights, who don't want to get rid of the anti-free speech regime that Tristan Trudeau's erected, all this other stuff, we have to get rid of it.

00:15:08.000 We have to completely clear out the vision.

00:15:09.700 And if a conservative doesn't want to do that, they shouldn't be elected as a conservative nominee.

00:15:13.580 You cannot, if Trudeau's era was so bad for Canadians, you do not want candidates around who will only dismantle little bits and pieces of it and then leave the rest in place.

00:15:22.240 That's not fighting for a new good status quo.

00:15:25.560 That's just fighting for the status quo four years ago. 0.85

00:15:28.140 It's pathetic whenever I see conservatives basically say, oh, yeah, I think that some of the Trudeau's policies over the past couple of years have been really bad. 0.68

00:15:34.640 I don't want to just go back to Canada of four years ago. 0.94

00:15:37.160 I'd like to go back to Canada of like 15 years ago when Harper was in power or even before that, actually having a small business status quo rather than a very fat, bloated, bureaucratic, commerce-based government that kicks Canadians in the shins on social issues and then gives them back a couple tax credits to try and make them happy.

00:15:57.220 I just want a flat out small government that competes with the likes of Florida and Texas for economic migrants rather than competing with the rest of Canada's bloated governments.

00:16:09.080 Other than that, hopefully I've not rambled now way too much even in the end of this video.

00:16:13.460 Hopefully you'll actually watch the next one I come out with.

00:16:16.120 Hopefully these are not feeling too long.

00:16:18.140 But regardless, I'll see you guys next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - November 13, 2023

Trudeau's Liberals Polling As Bad As The NDP

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