In this episode of the podcast, I talk about why the Liberals should call a snap election, and why it would be a good idea. The polling is getting really bad for the Liberals, and I think it's time for them to go.
00:00:00.000The polling is getting so bad for the Liberals going into the next federal election that at this point I would just advise them, if I wasn't advised to the Liberals, that they should effectively just try and throw in the towel as early as possible, hold a snap election, lose it really fast so then they can get past this Trudeau era of the Liberal Party.
00:00:17.380Holding on for another two years is not going to benefit them at all. Right now, if anything, if they hold on, they're just going to have more voters resenting the fact that they just held on as long as humanly possible while delivering policies that nobody wants in any way, shape or form.
00:00:31.900But the reason why I think that would actually help them is the polling is getting so bad.
00:00:37.240If they fall any further, Justin Trudeau would be at risk of performing as bad, if not worse, as Michael Ignatieff did in 2011.
00:00:44.480So at least by getting the election out of the way now, maybe he can ride high and have like a 24 percent turnout on Election Day in terms of the voter percentage.
00:00:53.100They can win some seats. They can hold on to most of the stuff that they have and they can move on with a new leader.
00:00:58.260Justin Trudeau can tip his hat to people and then go on a beach vacation for the rest of his life.
00:01:03.040That would be the smart thing for the Liberals to do. And I know some people don't like me giving advice to the Liberals, but don't worry.
00:01:08.600They're never going to actually listen to me. That would be a smart thing to do.
00:01:12.020And the Liberals are not exactly on board with doing smart things these days.
00:01:15.560But I want to go to the polling because I, for the longest time, had been saying, yeah, the Conservatives are ahead anywhere from 7 to 14 points.
00:01:23.020How wrong was I? I had not actually checked in on a lot of the recent polling for a long time.
00:01:28.260And I kept saying that 7 to 14, 7 to 14 kind of range. Right now, it's more like a 12 to 18 or 22 percent lead.
00:01:36.420A Nanos poll just came out and the Conservatives have a 22 point lead over the Liberals.
00:01:40.640And the Liberals are almost doing as bad as the NDP. 22 percent for the NDP and 20 percent or 20 percent for the NDP, 22 percent for the Liberals.
00:01:48.440That's scary because that could be a range where the Liberals might win less seats than the NDP, because the NDP is one of those parties that has very concentrated votes in university towns on some very union heavy industrial sort of centers like Hamilton and whatnot.
00:02:03.500But the Liberals have kind of like a very thinly spread smear of voters.
00:02:07.240They have a much more efficient voter base than the Conservatives because they have a lot of concentration in certain provinces where the Conservatives can win, you know, seats anywhere in Canada.
00:02:15.960But it's a little bit more difficult for them. But right now, the Liberals might be competing to see if they're going to fall into third place like they did under Gnadyev, this time under Trudeau.
00:02:24.700And imagine that you have the name recognition, the brand recognition of the Trudeaus, and you're failing this hardened election where you have the media on your side.
00:02:33.220You have a lot of like the nonprofit groups on your side. You have even foreign interference on your side.
00:02:39.260And you somehow cannot claw your way within 10 points of the Conservatives. You're literally 22 points behind.
00:02:45.740That is basically a complete rejection of the Liberals by their own base. If even the Liberals were able to hold on to most of their voters, they wouldn't be doing this bad.
00:02:55.880This is signaling that all they have left is the orange Liberal hyper-progressive base.
00:03:01.680Any voters who are voting for the Liberals because they kind of liked the economic policies have fully abandoned them at this point.
00:03:07.180And this is where I've said multiple times, the Liberals cannot get rid of Justin Trudeau.
00:03:11.320It doesn't matter how bad he's doing. Right now, the party's stuck between a rock and a hard place.
00:03:16.680Justin Trudeau has a very strong social progressive base. It's not strong enough to even come close to winning an election, but it's what keeps him in power in the Liberals.
00:03:25.900So if the Liberals try and swap out for a Mark Carney or a Chrystia Freeland, they lose the hyper-progressive base because they basically follow Justin Trudeau around like a cult leader.
00:03:34.820But if they swapped into Mark Carney, yeah, they could win back some Liberal voters who, for some reason, are just against voting Conservative and will only do it if Trudeau's still the leader.
00:03:44.360They'll win some of those people. But a lot of the hyper-progressives might then go and vote for Jagmeet Singh, which might actually allow the MVP to dig a little bit into sort of downtown Toronto more.
00:03:53.500But, you know, the Liberals aren't going to do that. Effectively, what they should do is just let Trudeau lose a very fast election, like I said, and then basically say, hey, it's a new era for the Liberal Party.
00:04:04.580It won't be. They're still going to be awful. But they can pretend like we've moved on to a new era by getting rid of Trudeau in a very fast election.
00:04:11.500If they drag it out, people are only going to see them as just some horribly out-of-touch legacy party who was holding on to power because they know Canadians don't want them around.
00:04:21.780That's what killed social credit in BC and Alberta back in the day, is that they really didn't have any reason to exist anymore.
00:04:29.380And rather than giving people a fast election, then reforming themselves very quickly for the next election,
00:04:34.220they end up holding on with, like, to, like, they end up holding on with a death grip to their governments in those areas.
00:04:40.100And then people just saw them as just some, like, legacy party that has no real reason to stick around anymore.
00:04:46.320Anyways, I just want to go into some of the other polling because with this Nanos poll, there was also an Abacus data poll that I'm going to be talking about later today on the Richard Serrett show.
00:04:54.760I believe it's an hour. So in an hour, if I put out this video, tune in at 5.15, like, you know, Eastern time to listen to me.
00:05:01.820But here's the Abacus data poll. 40% Conservatives, 26% Liberals.
00:05:06.240So they're doing a little bit better on this one than in the Nanos poll.
00:05:10.200But look at the seat projections. 204 seats for the Conservatives with a 77% swing in favor of the Conservatives.
00:05:17.22087 seats are going to be lost by the Liberals. And, like, wow, that's pretty horrifying.
00:05:23.200This one shows the NDP doing worse, but those extra few points, like those 4% higher polling in this poll compared to the Nanos one,
00:05:30.700is going to capture the Liberals a lot of seats. It's kind of that crossover point.
00:05:34.640If you can cross over 20% decisively, that's when you start getting dozens of extra seats.
00:05:40.360When you're kind of around that 20 and below area, that's when you can only win a couple dozen seats.
00:05:45.620And that's really it because your vote's very, very concentrated unless you're the bloc where you only run in Quebec.
00:05:51.800But the great thing for here, like, here with the polling right now is that you do not,
00:05:56.320the Conservatives do not have to rely on the bloc whatsoever for votes.
00:05:59.980They, again, remember, they were the ones who held up the vote and they voted down the motion to get rid of the carbon tax on all home heating.
00:06:07.580You cannot rely on ally with the bloc because at the end of the day, they're more loyal to the Quebec provincial government.
00:06:12.960So if the Quebec provincial government has a carbon tax like it does, they are not going to get rid of the carbon tax federally
00:06:17.700because that would be benefiting English Canada over French Canada.
00:06:21.340And that's the only thing that they really stand for in Parliament is just keeping this incredibly slanted balance
00:06:26.760where Quebec always has to benefit more than the rest of the country or they're going to, you know, storm out of the room upset.
00:06:32.460I do want to plug David Colletto from the Abacus Data.
00:06:35.360I think they're one of the better pollsters out there for looking up popularity numbers of the leaders and different polling.
00:06:41.900So make sure to follow him on Twitter or X.
00:06:43.780But here's the actual polling from all the firms over the past, you know, like a month and a half or so.
00:06:50.940The lowest I can find is plus 11 for the Conservatives.
00:06:53.620And the highest now we have is the Nanos numbers with plus 22.
00:06:58.140The Liberals just don't have a chance of getting back.
00:07:00.580And that's why it's actually very good that we have Pierre Polyev now outwardly coming out when he was touring Richmond Hill
00:07:05.440saying that he is affirmatively against gender theory in schools.
00:07:09.520He doesn't just vaguely stand for parental rights.
00:07:11.160He specifically stands against the thing that the parental rights movement is going after.
00:07:15.520That being SOGI123, all of the hyper-progressive sexual ed content being injected into the classroom.
00:07:23.160And I just want to take a side note here because I'm running for the Conservative nomination for Calgary Signal Hill.
00:07:28.160So shameless plug, vote for me if you live in that writing or get any of your friends and family in that area, sign up and vote for me.
00:07:33.320But I had someone on one of the ads I was running in the area saying that I was being creepy
00:07:37.440because I want SOGI123 out of the classroom because I don't want the sexual ed content being taught in the classroom
00:08:25.220So their only argument is to basically call hypocrite or basically say that you're, you know, you're being divisive, you're unkind, you're mean.
00:09:08.620He doesn't have a clear vision for the country.
00:09:10.420And 91% said he's inauthentic and phony.
00:09:13.760That's where I think that the main one here that they need to push on is the fact that Justin Trudeau's entire program has failed and that he effectively is taking the country nowhere.
00:09:23.340This is where, not that you should exactly market it exactly that way, always just talk about the policy failures.
00:09:29.060But this is what I've talked about in other videos when I say why the Conservatives lost in 2021, 2019, and 2015, but the Conservatives won in 2011.
00:09:38.320In 2011, the Conservatives had a small government vision for Canada and were calling out the Liberals like Ignatia for just visiting or that they're just being disruptive.
00:09:46.500Instead of they're mad because they don't form the majority and they're trying to put together this ridiculous coalition government, that worked well.
00:09:52.360Basically, it's left-wing parties trying to hijack the government even though nobody elected them in large numbers.
00:09:57.780And then by the time they go to 2015, Trudeau now has the momentum because the Harper campaign, in my opinion, ran a very much keep us in power because the other guys aren't as good as us.
00:10:09.460You have to have a vision and as silly as the Sunny Ways slogan is, it's very good marketing because it's saying, I'm a breath of fresh air, I'm transparent, and the Harper government, by contrast, is dark and insular.
00:10:45.560No one's voting for the Conservatives for a pivot vision.
00:10:48.040You need to actually give a vision that says, like Polly Ebb has been doing and a lot of other candidates for the Conservatives have been doing, is that we want a country with less extremists in it who are laundering money.
00:11:05.400You paint a vision of a better world where people are able to control everything themselves.
00:11:09.340They can start a small business with the government killing it during lockdowns or through regulations.
00:11:13.900You sort of paint a picture of people having being very decisive in their own lives that people can do what they want.
00:11:19.200Whereas in 2019 and 2021, it was like a what I would call a very commerce based approach to politics.
00:11:26.220It's saying, hey, we'll give you 50 bucks if you put your kids in soccer.
00:11:29.420You'll get this tax credit if you do this.
00:11:31.360Hey, we'll have a small business government grant program.
00:11:34.400It's so bureaucratic and like bloated and sweaty way of doing politics.
00:11:38.680It's not that, hey, we're going to lower taxes so you can get along with your own life.
00:11:42.300You get to go on a government website and fill out a bunch of forms and by some bureaucrat, hopefully not messing it up, you might get a little bit money back on your tax.
00:11:55.280Like, that's why I'm most happy O'Toole lost in 21 because if O'Toole won, one, the liberal, the conservatives would have only had a minority government that maybe would have lasted a year and a half.
00:12:04.400And then the liberals would have probably come back because Aaron O'Toole had no vision.
00:12:07.940And he would have immediately tainted the conservative brand as basically being this Mulroney-esque diet liberal kind of approach to politics.
00:12:17.420So I'm happy he lost so then we could have Pierre Polyev.
00:12:20.800But going forward now, I think what needs to happen is that the conservatives definitely should not fall into the gear of saying, okay, let's calm down.
00:13:26.000He's a wrong, narcissistic dweeb who will not actually let – who's basically holding on to power in spite of the fact that nobody likes his policies anymore.
00:13:35.440That's what you have to do when you're marketing against him.
00:13:38.320But anyways, hopefully you don't hate listening to me ramble, but I have my normal Give, Send, Go legal fundraiser in the description of this video linked there.
00:13:46.260If you want to throw in $5, $50, maybe $1,000.
00:14:10.980So if you want to contribute to that, it really helps me pay for costs.
00:14:14.500This thing is now costing me over $20,000 at this point.
00:14:17.840And what else you can do to help me out is if you live in Calgary Signal Hill, buy a conservative party membership to vote for me or get any of your friends and family who also live in the riding to sign up and vote for me whenever the nomination race comes up.
00:14:30.580We want to make sure we have real conservatives.
00:14:32.320So make sure to vote for me, number one, or Michael Kim, number two, for the riding because there's a lot of red Tories and failed MLAs running in the area.
00:14:39.760And I'd really like us to have, you know, fresh conservatives who actually stand for conservatism, not just constantly, you know, dividing up policy and running on sort of half principles like, oh, I oppose the carbon tax.
00:14:55.720But people who don't support parental rights, who don't support gun rights, who don't want to get rid of the anti-free speech regime that Tristan Trudeau's erected, all this other stuff, we have to get rid of it.
00:15:08.000We have to completely clear out the vision.
00:15:09.700And if a conservative doesn't want to do that, they shouldn't be elected as a conservative nominee.
00:15:13.580You cannot, if Trudeau's era was so bad for Canadians, you do not want candidates around who will only dismantle little bits and pieces of it and then leave the rest in place.
00:15:22.240That's not fighting for a new good status quo.
00:15:25.560That's just fighting for the status quo four years ago.
00:15:28.140It's pathetic whenever I see conservatives basically say, oh, yeah, I think that some of the Trudeau's policies over the past couple of years have been really bad.
00:15:34.640I don't want to just go back to Canada of four years ago.
00:15:37.160I'd like to go back to Canada of like 15 years ago when Harper was in power or even before that, actually having a small business status quo rather than a very fat, bloated, bureaucratic, commerce-based government that kicks Canadians in the shins on social issues and then gives them back a couple tax credits to try and make them happy.
00:15:57.220I just want a flat out small government that competes with the likes of Florida and Texas for economic migrants rather than competing with the rest of Canada's bloated governments.
00:16:09.080Other than that, hopefully I've not rambled now way too much even in the end of this video.
00:16:13.460Hopefully you'll actually watch the next one I come out with.
00:16:16.120Hopefully these are not feeling too long.
00:16:18.140But regardless, I'll see you guys next time.