The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 22, 2024


Trudeau's Liberals will fall to just 53 seats!!


Episode Stats

Length

11 minutes

Words per Minute

207.37054

Word Count

2,459

Sentence Count

165

Misogynist Sentences

4

Hate Speech Sentences

2


Summary

A new Angus Reid poll has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 17 points in the latest poll, and it's not even close to being close enough to actually beat the Tories in the popular vote. Is this a good or bad sign for the Liberals?


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Goodness, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party's polling isn't just bad these days, it's flat-out embarrassing.
00:00:06.140 It's like Trudeau isn't even competing in the same election as Pierre Pauly of the Conservatives,
00:00:10.360 and in a certain sense he actually isn't competing in the same election.
00:00:13.600 Justin Trudeau is actually competing against Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, as well as the Bloc Québécois,
00:00:18.340 to see which of their parties is going to be a very small opposition to a new Conservative government.
00:00:23.740 A new Angus Reid poll that just came out has the Conservatives slated at winning 222 seats,
00:00:29.640 with the Liberals winning, wait for it, 53. 53 seats.
00:00:35.420 The Liberals are currently at 154 seats, and they might win 153 seats after the next election,
00:00:42.860 followed very closely behind by the Bloc, who only runs in one province.
00:00:47.640 That is the definition of being an embarrassment in Canadian politics.
00:00:52.400 This is like a Michael Ignatieff numbers. It's insane.
00:00:55.280 And somehow Jagmeet Singh is not benefiting at all from this because he is an awful leader.
00:01:00.060 But I want to break down some of the more specific numbers in just a second here.
00:01:03.500 But quickly, I just want to do a shameless plug and mention that I, Wyatt Claypool,
00:01:07.860 am running in the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:01:10.700 It's on the west side of Calgary.
00:01:12.260 If you live in this riding, except for the bonus area because it's being cut out after the boundary changes,
00:01:16.940 if you live in this riding, buy a Conservative Party membership and vote for me number one on your ballot
00:01:20.940 whenever the nomination race happens to take place.
00:01:23.600 There's a lot of red Tories, a lot of O'Toole type people running in this riding.
00:01:28.620 So if you buy a membership in this area, vote for me.
00:01:30.700 We can make sure we have real Conservatives representing strong Conservative ridings.
00:01:34.780 There's a lot of strong Conservative ridings in this country.
00:01:36.680 I find that actually have a lot of people who are very red running their nominations,
00:01:41.320 knowing that they could never win as a Liberal.
00:01:43.300 But anyways, I want to get back to these Angus Reid numbers because they're hilarious to read.
00:01:46.860 So this poll is another one that shows the Conservatives leading by 17 points.
00:01:51.800 But that's already bad enough.
00:01:53.800 But look at the regional numbers.
00:01:55.900 In Atlanta, Canada, the Conservatives are polling at 52%.
00:01:59.580 In Ontario, they're polling at 45%.
00:02:02.420 In the Prairies, 54.5%.
00:02:05.160 Alberta, 63%.
00:02:06.680 And BC, 40%.
00:02:07.800 The only place that the Liberals are beating the Conservatives in is Quebec.
00:02:12.200 And the Liberals are not in the lead.
00:02:13.720 It's still the bloc at 36%.
00:02:15.720 Just absolutely embarrassing for the Liberals.
00:02:19.560 And the thing is that, too, some people are saying, well, no, people will coalesce around
00:02:23.620 the Liberals before the next election in order to stop pure poly of the Conservatives because
00:02:27.700 they're so bad.
00:02:28.680 No one can ever tell you why they're bad.
00:02:30.340 I guess it's because they're actually Conservative and because people are so left-wing in this
00:02:33.960 country and the media is so left-wing that, you know, they think that, like, being
00:02:37.480 centre-right is extreme.
00:02:39.340 Even that won't work.
00:02:40.340 Even in the dream scenario for the Liberals to consolidate the vote, it's not going to happen.
00:02:45.280 Look at this poll result from the Angus Reid poll.
00:02:48.180 It shows that 7% of MVP voters might switch over to the Liberals in order to try and stop
00:02:53.640 the Conservatives.
00:02:54.560 2% of the bloc, 1% of the Greens, and 1% of undecided or other voters.
00:03:00.180 That still doesn't bring them close to beating the Conservatives in even the popular vote.
00:03:04.540 And the regionals on that are not going to be very favourable to the Liberals because
00:03:09.260 2% of bloc voters moving in Quebec probably would actually just open up more seats for
00:03:13.800 the Conservatives to potentially win because bloc and Liberal voters tend to split the vote
00:03:18.500 quite well together.
00:03:20.420 And with the bloc shifting over to the Liberals, it's just sort of dividing up the centre-left
00:03:24.880 vote more, allowing for the centre-right vote to potentially grab up some more seats around
00:03:29.220 the Montreal donut.
00:03:30.700 This is a nightmare scenario for the Liberals.
00:03:33.860 I saw another poll.
00:03:34.720 I don't have it on screen to show you.
00:03:36.740 But the Liberal Party right now, the majority of that 24% voting for them are only voting
00:03:42.800 for them to stop the Conservatives.
00:03:44.620 It was like 15 or so or like 17% of current Liberal Party supporters don't actually like
00:03:50.560 the Liberal Party or Justin Trudeau particularly much.
00:03:53.700 They're just voting because the media told them that Pierre Pahleev is a big scary man and
00:03:57.940 he's going to cut wasteful spending in government, which is akin to terrorism if you're on the
00:04:02.760 left in Canada these days.
00:04:05.900 That is also an even more horrifying stat for the Liberals.
00:04:10.980 When more than half of your party are reluctant voters, that means they're not showing up.
00:04:15.900 This is why Aaron O'Toole lost to Justin Trudeau.
00:04:18.600 Justin Trudeau is deeply hated in this country.
00:04:20.940 And that's enough of a reason for a lot of people to go out and vote Conservative no matter
00:04:25.280 who is the leader.
00:04:26.040 The problem for O'Toole is he gave nobody and he gave no one else any good reason to
00:04:30.940 show up and vote for him.
00:04:32.300 Aaron O'Toole, if he was a real true blue Conservative, like he had advertised, would
00:04:35.820 have smashed Trudeau.
00:04:36.980 Every other world leader pretty much who had an election during COVID got crushed.
00:04:42.000 And so like when Justin Trudeau won, it was because of the magnetism of Justin Trudeau.
00:04:46.700 A lot of people showed up to vote him out.
00:04:49.040 Aaron O'Toole just didn't bring out that extra four or five, six percent of voters for actual
00:04:53.920 good policy the Conservatives might deliver.
00:04:55.980 There was enough people who were saying, I'm going to vote PPC or I'm going to stay home
00:04:59.140 because Aaron O'Toole is pro-carbon tax and he's not really committing to cutting any
00:05:03.640 wasteful spending and he's just some diet liberal.
00:05:06.680 That's why people didn't vote for O'Toole in that election and Trudeau was able to stay
00:05:10.660 in office.
00:05:11.520 Now Trudeau is dealing with the exact same problem.
00:05:14.120 He might be able to bring out some people based on media hysteria about pure poly of the
00:05:18.920 Conservatives.
00:05:19.800 But that only goes so far.
00:05:21.140 And especially when you're the current prime minister, reluctant voters trying to stop
00:05:25.800 the opposition are not nearly as reliable as you think, because right now we're currently
00:05:30.540 in kind of like a bit of an all is lost period for the Trudeau liberals.
00:05:34.040 And do you think these people who are reluctant liberals are going to show up maybe to stop
00:05:39.080 the Conservatives?
00:05:40.440 What good policies are they currently getting out of the liberals that are going to drive
00:05:44.100 them out?
00:05:44.560 Are they getting any tax benefits?
00:05:46.720 Are they getting any economic benefits?
00:05:48.440 The economy sucks.
00:05:49.420 It's a subsidy economy where unless you know a liberal official who can give you tax exemptions
00:05:54.660 or regulatory waivers, it's impossible to start a new business or be able to grow in
00:05:59.820 your sort of income just because whoever you work for isn't making any more money.
00:06:04.640 Or if you run a small business, it's like your margins are so tight these days just trying
00:06:08.180 to survive.
00:06:09.620 Justin Trudeau cannot win an election running against pure poly of pure poly of does not
00:06:15.220 scare people.
00:06:15.800 Look at any of the approval ratings.
00:06:17.460 He has a net positive approval rating.
00:06:19.180 It's not people holding their nose to vote for poly of to get rid of Trudeau.
00:06:22.320 It's because they want to get rid of Trudeau and they really like poly of Justin Trudeau
00:06:26.600 only has maybe a little bit.
00:06:29.200 He doesn't even have half that equation.
00:06:30.560 He has like 30% of that equation.
00:06:32.440 He has a certain subset of people who are dedicated leftists who hate poly of who might show up and
00:06:37.260 vote.
00:06:37.500 And the rest are kind of wispy voters who don't like Trudeau and they aren't really that
00:06:42.280 scared of poly of it's done.
00:06:44.380 Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party is done.
00:06:46.680 This is why, like I said the other day, they can't even bring 90 donors into a Vancouver
00:06:50.980 hotel for a fundraising event.
00:06:52.600 That's Vancouver.
00:06:53.660 That is a city that the Liberals should do quite well in.
00:06:56.000 And they can't get more than 90 people into a room to give the Liberals money.
00:06:59.640 When the prime minister himself shows up to an event, the prime minister should have some
00:07:03.380 star power.
00:07:04.500 If this was the US where, you know, 10 campaigns from the Democrats and Republicans tend to
00:07:09.660 be very independent, this would be like a Democrat or Republican congressperson telling the president
00:07:16.720 to say, please don't show up in my district to help me out.
00:07:19.200 You're going to hurt me.
00:07:20.200 This is the problem for Trudeau.
00:07:21.540 I guarantee the next election, there's going to be a lot of Liberal MPs saying, do not show
00:07:26.180 up to my riding.
00:07:26.980 I'm actually trying to win here.
00:07:28.900 Please leave me alone.
00:07:30.280 And even then, Trudeau is not going to have enough money to fund any of these.
00:07:33.580 The Liberals only brought in like $9 million, $9.8 million in 2023.
00:07:38.720 And that's not counting the fourth quarter, I believe.
00:07:40.860 The Conservatives brought in $23.8 million.
00:07:43.080 People vote with their money.
00:07:44.300 And it's not, oh, big oil and gas donors giving money to the Conservatives.
00:07:48.300 You can only donate $1,725 into Canadian politics.
00:07:54.820 It's a numbers game.
00:07:56.040 You actually need a lot of individuals to donate or you're dead.
00:07:58.600 I've never really liked the fundraising sort of restrictions we have because it makes it
00:08:02.880 hard for new parties to start up.
00:08:04.180 And I think that shouldn't be that hard in a better democracy.
00:08:08.560 But whatever, that's how it works.
00:08:10.080 And the Liberals cannot get people who probably this money doesn't mean anything to them.
00:08:14.460 But even though they're rich, they still don't want to give money because the Liberals are
00:08:17.860 getting clobbered.
00:08:18.460 I'll wait until we get a new leader.
00:08:20.020 I guarantee a lot of Liberal donors are just waiting for Justin Trudeau to finally move on
00:08:25.140 so that they can get, like, I was going to say Mark Carney.
00:08:28.620 Mark Carney wouldn't even do very well as a Liberal leader.
00:08:30.760 He's another Ignatieff.
00:08:32.160 He doesn't live in Canada.
00:08:33.780 He's like an economic advisor in the UK or something like that.
00:08:36.780 He does not track well.
00:08:38.080 The Canadians really don't like carpetbagging politicians.
00:08:41.580 There's some carpetbagging politicians in my nomination, like seven of them, a couple
00:08:45.560 former MLAs.
00:08:46.740 There's actually a lady from Facebook who was in charge of censorship during COVID, or she
00:08:50.920 was in charge of censorship policy during COVID.
00:08:52.740 She's trying to run in my area.
00:08:53.740 She lives in Ottawa.
00:08:54.900 Crazy.
00:08:55.740 Anyways, but people do not like carpetbaggers.
00:08:57.880 Mark Carney will not perform well.
00:08:59.840 Chrystia Freeland is a laugh to think about trying to run the Liberal Party.
00:09:03.380 There's just nobody left.
00:09:05.180 Justin Trudeau has brain drained the party.
00:09:08.080 Maybe a Bill Morneau would have been a good leader.
00:09:09.960 He got rid of him.
00:09:10.560 He threw him under the bus.
00:09:11.800 Everyone else who was a good leader or a slightly moderate might be able to bring moderate
00:09:15.200 voters back to the Liberals has already left or been kicked up.
00:09:17.720 Jean Philpott, you know, all those sort of individuals.
00:09:20.280 Raybold, she might have been a good candidate.
00:09:23.620 She's been thrown out and like the bus driven over her multiple times.
00:09:26.760 The Liberals have nobody.
00:09:27.860 This is why I say they're going to be out in the woods probably for a good 10, 15 years
00:09:31.860 trying to rebuild their party.
00:09:33.460 And even then, who's going to trust them?
00:09:35.360 This is why the Social Credit Party never came back in Alberta and BC.
00:09:39.260 It's because they held on like grim death to their governments well past the expiration
00:09:44.220 date.
00:09:44.620 If they allow themselves to be challenged in an election earlier, they probably would
00:09:50.080 have survived.
00:09:50.740 But people resent you when you won't allow them to have an election when they clearly
00:09:54.920 want you out.
00:09:55.880 So you're going to have a lot of people never voting Liberal again because when those guys
00:10:00.100 get in, if they win, they just sit there and like dig in like a parasite.
00:10:04.740 And it's hard to get rid of them because of the efficient vote that they have around the
00:10:08.420 GTA area.
00:10:09.840 That's always been the annoying thing about Canadian politics.
00:10:12.760 It's not that the prairie votes don't matter.
00:10:14.640 It's just that the Liberals have been very efficient with their vote.
00:10:17.480 If they get 30% of the vote, they basically make sure to win all the ridings that they
00:10:21.980 get by as thin a margin as possible.
00:10:24.360 Conservatives win certain ridings in Alberta by like dictatorship numbers.
00:10:28.360 And so in the popular vote, we have like 34% and the Liberals have 32, but they win more
00:10:32.880 seats.
00:10:33.820 Oh, sorry.
00:10:34.400 Now I'm ranting about the theory of elections.
00:10:37.120 Hopefully some of you guys like these, you know, rambling rants.
00:10:40.640 I know most of you stopped watching the videos more than before the halfway mark, and that's
00:10:44.800 completely a legitimate way of doing it.
00:10:47.300 But this is just kind of how the way I like to present things, just talking about stuff
00:10:51.160 until I get disinterested.
00:10:52.280 And now I'm disinterested.
00:10:53.260 So I just want to quickly plug the fact that my Give, Send, Go link is in the description
00:10:57.100 of this video below.
00:10:58.140 If you want to donate to our legal fund, we're fighting off a billionaire in court.
00:11:02.320 It's a stupid defamation, frivolous defamation suit trying to get us to apologize for something
00:11:07.680 that we didn't do wrong.
00:11:08.720 If you want to give money to that, some more of the details about the case are in the description
00:11:13.000 in that link.
00:11:14.920 And also, again, I'm running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:11:19.200 So if you live in Calgary Signal Hill, go check which riding you live in if you live in Calgary.
00:11:23.480 If you live in Calgary Signal Hill, buy a Conservative Party membership and vote for me number one on
00:11:28.600 the ballot.
00:11:29.020 It's a ranked ballot whenever the nomination date gets called.
00:11:32.080 Probably after April, we're doing a massive boundary change across Canada because of seats
00:11:37.400 being added.
00:11:38.560 Alberta's getting three or four seats because of our population growth, which is a good
00:11:41.540 thing.
00:11:41.860 We still need more, but I'll take it.
00:11:44.260 Anyways, other than that, I'll see everyone later.
00:11:47.540 I might even do a live stream in the middle of the day today just to see how that works.