The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Trudeau's Liberals will fall to just 53 seats!!

00:00:00.000 Goodness, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party's polling isn't just bad these days, it's flat-out embarrassing.

00:00:06.140 It's like Trudeau isn't even competing in the same election as Pierre Pauly of the Conservatives,

00:00:10.360 and in a certain sense he actually isn't competing in the same election.

00:00:13.600 Justin Trudeau is actually competing against Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, as well as the Bloc Québécois,

00:00:18.340 to see which of their parties is going to be a very small opposition to a new Conservative government.

00:00:23.740 A new Angus Reid poll that just came out has the Conservatives slated at winning 222 seats,

00:00:29.640 with the Liberals winning, wait for it, 53. 53 seats.

00:00:35.420 The Liberals are currently at 154 seats, and they might win 153 seats after the next election,

00:00:42.860 followed very closely behind by the Bloc, who only runs in one province.

00:00:47.640 That is the definition of being an embarrassment in Canadian politics.

00:00:52.400 This is like a Michael Ignatieff numbers. It's insane.

00:00:55.280 And somehow Jagmeet Singh is not benefiting at all from this because he is an awful leader.

00:01:00.060 But I want to break down some of the more specific numbers in just a second here.

00:01:03.500 But quickly, I just want to do a shameless plug and mention that I, Wyatt Claypool,

00:01:07.860 am running in the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.

00:01:10.700 It's on the west side of Calgary.

00:01:12.260 If you live in this riding, except for the bonus area because it's being cut out after the boundary changes,

00:01:16.940 if you live in this riding, buy a Conservative Party membership and vote for me number one on your ballot

00:01:20.940 whenever the nomination race happens to take place.

00:01:23.600 There's a lot of red Tories, a lot of O'Toole type people running in this riding.

00:01:28.620 So if you buy a membership in this area, vote for me.

00:01:30.700 We can make sure we have real Conservatives representing strong Conservative ridings.

00:01:34.780 There's a lot of strong Conservative ridings in this country.

00:01:36.680 I find that actually have a lot of people who are very red running their nominations,

00:01:41.320 knowing that they could never win as a Liberal.

00:01:43.300 But anyways, I want to get back to these Angus Reid numbers because they're hilarious to read.

00:01:46.860 So this poll is another one that shows the Conservatives leading by 17 points.

00:01:51.800 But that's already bad enough.

00:01:53.800 But look at the regional numbers.

00:01:55.900 In Atlanta, Canada, the Conservatives are polling at 52%.

00:01:59.580 In Ontario, they're polling at 45%.

00:02:02.420 In the Prairies, 54.5%.

00:02:05.160 Alberta, 63%.

00:02:06.680 And BC, 40%.

00:02:07.800 The only place that the Liberals are beating the Conservatives in is Quebec.

00:02:12.200 And the Liberals are not in the lead.

00:02:13.720 It's still the bloc at 36%.

00:02:15.720 Just absolutely embarrassing for the Liberals.

00:02:19.560 And the thing is that, too, some people are saying, well, no, people will coalesce around

00:02:23.620 the Liberals before the next election in order to stop pure poly of the Conservatives because

00:02:27.700 they're so bad.

00:02:28.680 No one can ever tell you why they're bad.

00:02:30.340 I guess it's because they're actually Conservative and because people are so left-wing in this

00:02:33.960 country and the media is so left-wing that, you know, they think that, like, being

00:02:37.480 centre-right is extreme.

00:02:39.340 Even that won't work.

00:02:40.340 Even in the dream scenario for the Liberals to consolidate the vote, it's not going to happen.

00:02:45.280 Look at this poll result from the Angus Reid poll.

00:02:48.180 It shows that 7% of MVP voters might switch over to the Liberals in order to try and stop

00:02:53.640 the Conservatives.

00:02:54.560 2% of the bloc, 1% of the Greens, and 1% of undecided or other voters.

00:03:00.180 That still doesn't bring them close to beating the Conservatives in even the popular vote.

00:03:04.540 And the regionals on that are not going to be very favourable to the Liberals because

00:03:09.260 2% of bloc voters moving in Quebec probably would actually just open up more seats for

00:03:13.800 the Conservatives to potentially win because bloc and Liberal voters tend to split the vote

00:03:18.500 quite well together.

00:03:20.420 And with the bloc shifting over to the Liberals, it's just sort of dividing up the centre-left

00:03:24.880 vote more, allowing for the centre-right vote to potentially grab up some more seats around

00:03:29.220 the Montreal donut.

00:03:30.700 This is a nightmare scenario for the Liberals.

00:03:33.860 I saw another poll.

00:03:34.720 I don't have it on screen to show you.

00:03:36.740 But the Liberal Party right now, the majority of that 24% voting for them are only voting

00:03:42.800 for them to stop the Conservatives.

00:03:44.620 It was like 15 or so or like 17% of current Liberal Party supporters don't actually like

00:03:50.560 the Liberal Party or Justin Trudeau particularly much.

00:03:53.700 They're just voting because the media told them that Pierre Pahleev is a big scary man and

00:03:57.940 he's going to cut wasteful spending in government, which is akin to terrorism if you're on the

00:04:02.760 left in Canada these days.

00:04:05.900 That is also an even more horrifying stat for the Liberals.

00:04:10.980 When more than half of your party are reluctant voters, that means they're not showing up.

00:04:15.900 This is why Aaron O'Toole lost to Justin Trudeau.

00:04:18.600 Justin Trudeau is deeply hated in this country.

00:04:20.940 And that's enough of a reason for a lot of people to go out and vote Conservative no matter

00:04:25.280 who is the leader.

00:04:26.040 The problem for O'Toole is he gave nobody and he gave no one else any good reason to

00:04:30.940 show up and vote for him.

00:04:32.300 Aaron O'Toole, if he was a real true blue Conservative, like he had advertised, would

00:04:35.820 have smashed Trudeau.

00:04:36.980 Every other world leader pretty much who had an election during COVID got crushed.

00:04:42.000 And so like when Justin Trudeau won, it was because of the magnetism of Justin Trudeau.

00:04:46.700 A lot of people showed up to vote him out.

00:04:49.040 Aaron O'Toole just didn't bring out that extra four or five, six percent of voters for actual

00:04:53.920 good policy the Conservatives might deliver.

00:04:55.980 There was enough people who were saying, I'm going to vote PPC or I'm going to stay home

00:04:59.140 because Aaron O'Toole is pro-carbon tax and he's not really committing to cutting any

00:05:03.640 wasteful spending and he's just some diet liberal.

00:05:06.680 That's why people didn't vote for O'Toole in that election and Trudeau was able to stay

00:05:10.660 in office.

00:05:11.520 Now Trudeau is dealing with the exact same problem.

00:05:14.120 He might be able to bring out some people based on media hysteria about pure poly of the

00:05:18.920 Conservatives.

00:05:19.800 But that only goes so far.

00:05:21.140 And especially when you're the current prime minister, reluctant voters trying to stop

00:05:25.800 the opposition are not nearly as reliable as you think, because right now we're currently

00:05:30.540 in kind of like a bit of an all is lost period for the Trudeau liberals.

00:05:34.040 And do you think these people who are reluctant liberals are going to show up maybe to stop

00:05:39.080 the Conservatives?

00:05:40.440 What good policies are they currently getting out of the liberals that are going to drive

00:05:44.100 them out?

00:05:44.560 Are they getting any tax benefits?

00:05:46.720 Are they getting any economic benefits?

00:05:48.440 The economy sucks.

00:05:49.420 It's a subsidy economy where unless you know a liberal official who can give you tax exemptions

00:05:54.660 or regulatory waivers, it's impossible to start a new business or be able to grow in

00:05:59.820 your sort of income just because whoever you work for isn't making any more money.

00:06:04.640 Or if you run a small business, it's like your margins are so tight these days just trying

00:06:08.180 to survive.

00:06:09.620 Justin Trudeau cannot win an election running against pure poly of pure poly of does not

00:06:15.220 scare people.

00:06:15.800 Look at any of the approval ratings.

00:06:17.460 He has a net positive approval rating.

00:06:19.180 It's not people holding their nose to vote for poly of to get rid of Trudeau.

00:06:22.320 It's because they want to get rid of Trudeau and they really like poly of Justin Trudeau

00:06:26.600 only has maybe a little bit.

00:06:29.200 He doesn't even have half that equation.

00:06:30.560 He has like 30% of that equation.

00:06:32.440 He has a certain subset of people who are dedicated leftists who hate poly of who might show up and

00:06:37.260 vote.

00:06:37.500 And the rest are kind of wispy voters who don't like Trudeau and they aren't really that

00:06:42.280 scared of poly of it's done.

00:06:44.380 Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party is done.

00:06:46.680 This is why, like I said the other day, they can't even bring 90 donors into a Vancouver

00:06:50.980 hotel for a fundraising event.

00:06:52.600 That's Vancouver.

00:06:53.660 That is a city that the Liberals should do quite well in.

00:06:56.000 And they can't get more than 90 people into a room to give the Liberals money.

00:06:59.640 When the prime minister himself shows up to an event, the prime minister should have some

00:07:03.380 star power.

00:07:04.500 If this was the US where, you know, 10 campaigns from the Democrats and Republicans tend to

00:07:09.660 be very independent, this would be like a Democrat or Republican congressperson telling the president

00:07:16.720 to say, please don't show up in my district to help me out.

00:07:19.200 You're going to hurt me.

00:07:20.200 This is the problem for Trudeau.

00:07:21.540 I guarantee the next election, there's going to be a lot of Liberal MPs saying, do not show

00:07:26.180 up to my riding.

00:07:26.980 I'm actually trying to win here.

00:07:28.900 Please leave me alone.

00:07:30.280 And even then, Trudeau is not going to have enough money to fund any of these.

00:07:33.580 The Liberals only brought in like $9 million, $9.8 million in 2023.

00:07:38.720 And that's not counting the fourth quarter, I believe.

00:07:40.860 The Conservatives brought in $23.8 million.

00:07:43.080 People vote with their money.

00:07:44.300 And it's not, oh, big oil and gas donors giving money to the Conservatives.

00:07:48.300 You can only donate $1,725 into Canadian politics.

00:07:54.820 It's a numbers game.

00:07:56.040 You actually need a lot of individuals to donate or you're dead.

00:07:58.600 I've never really liked the fundraising sort of restrictions we have because it makes it

00:08:02.880 hard for new parties to start up.

00:08:04.180 And I think that shouldn't be that hard in a better democracy.

00:08:08.560 But whatever, that's how it works.

00:08:10.080 And the Liberals cannot get people who probably this money doesn't mean anything to them.

00:08:14.460 But even though they're rich, they still don't want to give money because the Liberals are

00:08:17.860 getting clobbered.

00:08:18.460 I'll wait until we get a new leader.

00:08:20.020 I guarantee a lot of Liberal donors are just waiting for Justin Trudeau to finally move on

00:08:25.140 so that they can get, like, I was going to say Mark Carney.

00:08:28.620 Mark Carney wouldn't even do very well as a Liberal leader.

00:08:30.760 He's another Ignatieff.

00:08:32.160 He doesn't live in Canada.

00:08:33.780 He's like an economic advisor in the UK or something like that.

00:08:36.780 He does not track well.

00:08:38.080 The Canadians really don't like carpetbagging politicians.

00:08:41.580 There's some carpetbagging politicians in my nomination, like seven of them, a couple 1.00

00:08:45.560 former MLAs.

00:08:46.740 There's actually a lady from Facebook who was in charge of censorship during COVID, or she

00:08:50.920 was in charge of censorship policy during COVID.

00:08:52.740 She's trying to run in my area. 1.00

00:08:53.740 She lives in Ottawa.

00:08:54.900 Crazy.

00:08:55.740 Anyways, but people do not like carpetbaggers. 0.99

00:08:57.880 Mark Carney will not perform well.

00:08:59.840 Chrystia Freeland is a laugh to think about trying to run the Liberal Party. 1.00

00:09:03.380 There's just nobody left.

00:09:05.180 Justin Trudeau has brain drained the party.

00:09:08.080 Maybe a Bill Morneau would have been a good leader.

00:09:09.960 He got rid of him.

00:09:10.560 He threw him under the bus.

00:09:11.800 Everyone else who was a good leader or a slightly moderate might be able to bring moderate

00:09:15.200 voters back to the Liberals has already left or been kicked up.

00:09:17.720 Jean Philpott, you know, all those sort of individuals.

00:09:20.280 Raybold, she might have been a good candidate. 0.99

00:09:23.620 She's been thrown out and like the bus driven over her multiple times. 0.53

00:09:26.760 The Liberals have nobody.

00:09:27.860 This is why I say they're going to be out in the woods probably for a good 10, 15 years

00:09:31.860 trying to rebuild their party.

00:09:33.460 And even then, who's going to trust them?

00:09:35.360 This is why the Social Credit Party never came back in Alberta and BC.

00:09:39.260 It's because they held on like grim death to their governments well past the expiration

00:09:44.220 date.

00:09:44.620 If they allow themselves to be challenged in an election earlier, they probably would

00:09:50.080 have survived.

00:09:50.740 But people resent you when you won't allow them to have an election when they clearly

00:09:54.920 want you out.

00:09:55.880 So you're going to have a lot of people never voting Liberal again because when those guys

00:10:00.100 get in, if they win, they just sit there and like dig in like a parasite.

00:10:04.740 And it's hard to get rid of them because of the efficient vote that they have around the

00:10:08.420 GTA area.

00:10:09.840 That's always been the annoying thing about Canadian politics.

00:10:12.760 It's not that the prairie votes don't matter.

00:10:14.640 It's just that the Liberals have been very efficient with their vote.

00:10:17.480 If they get 30% of the vote, they basically make sure to win all the ridings that they

00:10:21.980 get by as thin a margin as possible.

00:10:24.360 Conservatives win certain ridings in Alberta by like dictatorship numbers.

00:10:28.360 And so in the popular vote, we have like 34% and the Liberals have 32, but they win more

00:10:32.880 seats.

00:10:33.820 Oh, sorry.

00:10:34.400 Now I'm ranting about the theory of elections.

00:10:37.120 Hopefully some of you guys like these, you know, rambling rants.

00:10:40.640 I know most of you stopped watching the videos more than before the halfway mark, and that's

00:10:44.800 completely a legitimate way of doing it.

00:10:47.300 But this is just kind of how the way I like to present things, just talking about stuff

00:10:51.160 until I get disinterested.

00:10:52.280 And now I'm disinterested.

00:10:53.260 So I just want to quickly plug the fact that my Give, Send, Go link is in the description

00:10:57.100 of this video below.

00:10:58.140 If you want to donate to our legal fund, we're fighting off a billionaire in court.

00:11:02.320 It's a stupid defamation, frivolous defamation suit trying to get us to apologize for something

00:11:07.680 that we didn't do wrong.

00:11:08.720 If you want to give money to that, some more of the details about the case are in the description

00:11:13.000 in that link.

00:11:14.920 And also, again, I'm running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.

00:11:19.200 So if you live in Calgary Signal Hill, go check which riding you live in if you live in Calgary.

00:11:23.480 If you live in Calgary Signal Hill, buy a Conservative Party membership and vote for me number one on

00:11:28.600 the ballot.

00:11:29.020 It's a ranked ballot whenever the nomination date gets called.

00:11:32.080 Probably after April, we're doing a massive boundary change across Canada because of seats

00:11:37.400 being added.

00:11:38.560 Alberta's getting three or four seats because of our population growth, which is a good

00:11:41.540 thing.

00:11:41.860 We still need more, but I'll take it.

00:11:44.260 Anyways, other than that, I'll see everyone later.

00:11:47.540 I might even do a live stream in the middle of the day today just to see how that works.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 22, 2024

Trudeau's Liberals will fall to just 53 seats!!

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