Trudeau's polling numbers have somehow gotten way worse!
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
187.11626
Summary
Justin Trudeau's unpopularity is at an all-time low, and it's only getting worse. In this episode, I discuss why, and why not only is Justin Trudeau not popular, but so are the Freedom Convoy and COVID protesters.
Transcript
00:00:00.000
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is definitely not good at following the law, but even he must follow the laws of the universe.
00:00:07.080
And one that he never violates is the idea that no matter what happens, it can always get worse.
00:00:14.380
Because despite Justin Trudeau's massive unpopularity and the very low polling for the Liberal Party nationally,
00:00:20.620
they somehow keep sinking further and further into unpopularity.
00:00:24.760
So this is the stats from an abacus data poll that just came out, showing that the Conservatives are still nursing a healthy 20-point lead over the Liberals,
00:00:34.280
43-23, with the NDP only at 18 and the Block at 7.
00:00:38.880
This is pretty much what many of the more accurate pollsters have been saying over the past four or five months.
00:00:44.880
It's not a trend that's just here for a little bit, but not for a very long time.
00:00:49.440
This is what Canadians actually think. And you can tell because it's not like the polls have been jumping up for the Conservatives,
00:00:55.940
then coming back down and jumping back up. It's been, like, consistent.
00:00:58.800
It's been pretty flat with abacus data showing an anywhere from 16- to 22-point lead for the Conservatives.
00:01:05.520
And yes, they did at one point have a 22% lead. That's how bad the Liberals are doing.
00:01:11.120
And the Liberals, with Justin Trudeau, let's just highlight the regionals, because they are definitely scary for the Liberals.
00:01:16.400
The Liberals just don't have a base of support. I've said this before, I'll say it again.
00:01:21.440
If you're the Liberal Party, you're playing on easy mode in Canada.
00:01:25.620
You can pretty easily mop up a lot of seats in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.
00:01:30.360
But the Liberals have gotten so used to the idea that it's easy to win as a Liberal,
00:01:34.600
they've just decided we can govern however we want.
00:01:37.320
And while that's kind of true if you're a Liberal, when you start hurting the country as much as they have,
00:01:42.420
even Toronto voters start to get a little bit shaky.
00:01:44.620
So yes, they'll still win the majority of seats in Montreal, Toronto, and not quite downtown Vancouver anymore.
00:01:53.220
They still need another third of their votes to be coming from non-urban GTA areas.
00:02:00.740
They are losing Atlantic Canada famously right now.
00:02:03.900
The Conservatives are at 48% in Atlantic Canada, with the Liberals trailing by 29.
00:02:08.480
That's insane, considering Atlantic Canada went 100% for the Liberals back in 2015.
00:02:15.280
And it's even worse when it comes to age demographics.
00:02:18.680
This is, the Liberals used to be a party for older pensioners.
00:02:22.320
And while they still disproportionately do better with older voters,
00:02:25.780
they are not anywhere close to leading the Conservatives.
00:02:29.260
And it's because when they kept spending massive amounts of money every single year, including this new budget,
00:02:35.020
which is increasing inflation and it's putting people's benefits at risk, those voters flee from you hard.
00:02:41.440
And that's also why the Conservatives are winning women now,
00:02:44.660
when that used to be a historic demographic that the Liberals could rely on.
00:02:48.500
Because women tend to like a sort of a policy that's very safe and consistent.
00:02:53.620
And because the Liberals are typically in office way more than the Conservatives,
00:02:59.820
But Justin Trudeau is actually a very NDP-ish, orange Liberal Party leader.
00:03:04.680
And so his constant new benefit programs that fall on their face, increase inflation,
00:03:09.660
his bad policy when it comes to criminal justice, all this stuff has completely alienated women.
00:03:15.000
And like I always say, right now the Liberals are at 23% nationally.
00:03:20.740
And when you look at Justin Trudeau's approval rating, he's only at a 25% approval rating.
00:03:25.560
I have never seen the Liberal Party outpace Justin Trudeau's approval rating.
00:03:30.000
His approval rating and their national vote are always within 1% or 2%.
00:03:34.320
Because if you don't like Justin Trudeau, you're not voting Liberal.
00:03:38.700
But I want to highlight something here that's kind of funny,
00:03:41.320
is that not only does Justin Trudeau only have a 25% approval rating according to this Abacus data poll,
00:03:48.060
but he's literally less popular than the Freedom Convoy and COVID protesters,
00:03:53.660
who were like the absolute most demonized group of people over the past three years by the media.
00:04:00.280
So even though these people have been basically hammered at by the media year after year,
00:04:06.840
every single hour of the day, especially when COVID was really big,
00:04:10.720
these people are way more popular than Justin Trudeau is.
00:04:14.420
Because as time has gone on, even though people had a very negative impression of anyone who stood up to lockdowns and mandates,
00:04:21.080
over time, people, as they get out of that COVID era emergency mindset,
00:04:28.300
Maybe it was kind of bad to lock people up at home,
00:04:30.960
force them to get vaccinated when they didn't want to and all that and whatnot.
00:04:34.380
So now COVID protesters have a 42% approval rating in terms of people agreeing with their actions,
00:04:44.080
And yes, it's still a majority who didn't like them.
00:04:46.620
But Canada is very much what I call a middle class cultured country.
00:04:51.440
Middle class people, and we're all middle class people watching this video,
00:04:55.060
most likely unless you're super rich or in like a rare person who's in the very low kind of income demographic in Canada.
00:05:03.460
Most of us tend to not like to be super loud about politics.
00:05:09.680
So anyone protesting anything tends to get a lot of disapproval by the Canadian public
00:05:13.760
because it's very emotional and Canadians don't like emotional politics very much.
00:05:18.280
It's like if you see someone crying in front of you, you kind of look away instinctually.
00:05:22.720
It's uncomfortable because you can't match their sort of energy.
00:05:25.840
So a lot of Canadians, because they don't get very hot blood about politics,
00:05:28.440
when they see people protesting, there's an inherent automatic dislike.
00:05:32.500
And the fact that now 42% of people actually agree with what the COVID protesters were doing is really good progress.
00:05:41.160
But here is another funny thing I want to talk about.
00:05:44.320
And it's the general Canadian public and then Gen X and Z voters' impression of Justin Trudeau
00:05:51.020
compared to Pure Polyev when a bunch of different scenarios are pitched at them.
00:05:55.880
So this is Justin Trudeau versus Pure Polyev with Gen Z and millennial voters.
00:06:00.500
So the only category in which Justin Trudeau leads Pure Polyev is if you were to pick someone to host a party,
00:06:09.720
Justin Trudeau seems like he would maybe be a more fun guy compared to Pure Polyev.
00:06:14.200
I'd probably go to a party Pure Polyev hosted because I don't like parties.
00:06:18.300
And Pure Polyev doesn't exactly seem like the party animal type that Justin Trudeau is.
00:06:22.040
And when you go down through these categories, as much as this is just kind of fun,
00:06:26.460
as you go down to more serious sort of life decisions and events,
00:06:30.740
when it says putting up a shelf, Pure Polyev has a 20-point lead with younger voters over Justin Trudeau.
00:06:37.520
Being in charge of the map for a road trip, Pure Polyev gets a 24% lead.
00:06:41.980
Putting out a kitchen counter fire, plus 19 Pure Polyev.
00:06:52.960
It's because nobody trusts Justin Trudeau to do anything past tying his own shoes.
00:06:58.300
And even then, you don't really trust him that much, but it's his own shoes.
00:07:05.140
But Justin Trudeau is just not trusted with anything actually serious.
00:07:08.860
And here's another one, I think this is just the public in general, not just Gen Z and millennials.
00:07:15.220
Again, Justin Trudeau leads with hosting a house party, but on pretty much everything else,
00:07:20.460
it's Pure Polyev leading by 20 points, and there's some where he only leads by one,
00:07:25.520
but it's stuff like hosting and having an event at a bar or whatever.
00:07:29.500
People just think of Justin Trudeau as someone you'd maybe be a friend of,
00:07:33.740
but you don't put that idiot in charge of anything that actually matters.
00:07:37.300
And that's a really bad impression of a leader if you're actually trying to run for public office.
00:07:46.240
Justin Trudeau appears to be someone who's not very serious as a politician
00:07:53.340
The fact that after nine years, people don't see you as somebody who can balance a checkbook,
00:07:57.880
people don't see you as somebody who can negotiate a discount or put out a kitchen fire,
00:08:02.800
because truly the Liberal Party's governance of this country has been a nine-year house fire.
00:08:09.060
That's telling that voters don't really associate you with being an analytical person.
00:08:16.160
And that's really what shows why Justin Trudeau has such a hyper-progressive base.
00:08:21.180
It's a group of people who don't actually care about political issues in terms of your effectiveness
00:08:26.160
and carrying out your duty as prime minister, balancing the budget, keeping taxes low,
00:08:35.340
They care about the right values in government, and they don't care if it messes up the country.
00:08:39.280
These are the people who go around protesting, screaming down with Canada, land back.
00:08:46.240
These are the kind of voters who are sticking with Justin Trudeau.
00:08:48.600
And in time, because he's been getting very, very unpopular,
00:08:53.140
the funny thing is that Justin Trudeau is making the same mistake that Joe Biden is in the U.S.,
00:08:58.380
that he's losing voters on his left flank, so he has to become even more left-wing
00:09:03.760
and compete with Jagmeet Singh more for voters.
00:09:06.960
He's losing all the voters in the middle who are going to go and vote conservative
00:09:10.380
because they were only going to be around the Liberals as far as they didn't completely screw up the country.
00:09:15.840
And now that all of the economic data is coming back
00:09:19.380
and people are being smacked in the face with it every single day, they are not happy.
00:09:23.680
Anyways, I just want to quickly look again at the regionals,
00:09:26.060
but it's remarkable that in British Columbia, the Conservatives are only at almost 49% of the vote.
00:09:31.220
And I got to urge you guys, if you live in B.C., you got to vote for the B.C. Conservatives provincially.
00:09:36.840
That is another domino that needs to fall for pure polyepathy.
00:09:40.220
If he does become prime minister to be able to govern effectively,
00:09:43.080
he needs a radical premier like David Eby out of his way.
00:09:47.000
And the fact that 49% of people are voting federal conservative,
00:09:56.240
I'm voting federal conservative, but they're still voting provincial NDP at the moment,
00:10:03.160
and they need to be told that the B.C. provincial conservatives can actually win.
00:10:06.980
So don't vote for a guy who's going to stymie everything
00:10:09.740
that Pierre Polyev wants to do on a national level.
00:10:13.120
And then in Ontario, Conservatives 43, Liberals 28.
00:10:16.540
There's a reason that when you see some of these electoral projections on the map,
00:10:20.180
you're actually starting to see downtown Montreal and downtown Toronto ridings flipping blue.
00:10:25.500
Because these ridings are actually very divided between the Liberals NDP,
00:10:29.660
and usually even the Greens can score 8 to 10 points in these ridings.
00:10:32.560
The Conservatives don't actually need that many gains in Toronto in order to be very competitive.
00:10:37.300
It's just been that the Conservatives sit around the low 20s,
00:10:40.600
and then the Liberals and the NDP are sitting around the higher 30s fighting with each other.
00:10:46.140
So in a lot of these ridings, if the Conservatives can gain 10%,
00:10:49.160
they're in the game, and they actually have a solid shot of flipping these areas.
00:10:55.200
his riding on 338 actually shows that he has like a 5% chance of winning that riding right now,
00:11:00.420
or the Conservatives would if he was the candidate.
00:11:03.080
That's really good, considering Spadina-Fort York is a deeply, deeply red-orange riding.
00:11:23.600
For some reason, I keep clicking on Spadina-Fort York here.
00:11:29.520
But anyways, I think it holds true that right now,
00:11:32.280
even these downtown ridings, like right in the city center core,
00:11:36.040
Christia Freeland's riding could be lost to the Conservatives.
00:11:40.680
it's not even that we're flipping them Conservative.
00:11:42.740
A lot of them are also just going to stay home,
00:11:44.380
because it's hard to keep showing up and voting for the party that's barely hanging on.
00:11:48.620
Eventually, you're going to let them just fall off the cliff
00:11:53.560
Anyways, that should be it for me, guys, today.
00:11:56.080
I just quickly want to do my normal plug that I, Wyatt Claypool,
00:11:59.900
am running for the Calgary-Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:12:03.280
In a couple days, the riding boundaries are changing,
00:12:07.160
So if you live on the west side of Calgary in this federal riding,
00:12:10.220
buy a Conservative Party membership, vote for me in the nomination,
00:12:16.640
And also, if you want to donate to the TNT Legal Fund,
00:12:19.520
it would really help reduce the burden of cost on us for our legal matter
00:12:22.960
that we're fighting with this Chinese billionaire developer.
00:12:26.780
He's suing us for defamation and still hasn't submitted any evidence,
00:12:32.420
I've just gotten another bill for like $2,000 of legal fees.
00:12:35.880
So being able to donate anything to help me out with that
00:12:42.340
rather than figuring out ways of paying for these ridiculously high legal costs.
00:12:46.100
Because this one case alone in less than two years
00:12:52.000
But anyways, I'll see you guys next time with another video
00:12:55.780
likely talking about Justin Trudeau messing up something else
00:12:59.080
because it's just become a pattern since the budget dropped.