The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 22, 2024


Trudeau's polling numbers have somehow gotten way worse!

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Gen Z Chrystia Freeland Kevin Vong Joe Biden David Eby
This is why Justin Trudeau is losing Canada's climate tyrant doesn't care what the courts say

Episode Stats


Length

13 minutes

Words per minute

187.12

Word count

2,438

Sentence count

131

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

sentences flagged

Toxicity

7

sentences flagged

Hate speech

4

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau's unpopularity is at an all-time low, and it's only getting worse. In this episode, I discuss why, and why not only is Justin Trudeau not popular, but so are the Freedom Convoy and COVID protesters.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is definitely not good at following the law, but even he must follow the laws of the universe.
00:00:07.080 And one that he never violates is the idea that no matter what happens, it can always get worse.
00:00:14.380 Because despite Justin Trudeau's massive unpopularity and the very low polling for the Liberal Party nationally,
00:00:20.620 they somehow keep sinking further and further into unpopularity.
00:00:24.760 So this is the stats from an abacus data poll that just came out, showing that the Conservatives are still nursing a healthy 20-point lead over the Liberals,
00:00:34.280 43-23, with the NDP only at 18 and the Block at 7.
00:00:38.880 This is pretty much what many of the more accurate pollsters have been saying over the past four or five months.
00:00:44.880 It's not a trend that's just here for a little bit, but not for a very long time.
00:00:49.440 This is what Canadians actually think. And you can tell because it's not like the polls have been jumping up for the Conservatives,
00:00:55.940 then coming back down and jumping back up. It's been, like, consistent.
00:00:58.800 It's been pretty flat with abacus data showing an anywhere from 16- to 22-point lead for the Conservatives.
00:01:05.520 And yes, they did at one point have a 22% lead. That's how bad the Liberals are doing.
00:01:11.120 And the Liberals, with Justin Trudeau, let's just highlight the regionals, because they are definitely scary for the Liberals.
00:01:16.400 The Liberals just don't have a base of support. I've said this before, I'll say it again.
00:01:21.440 If you're the Liberal Party, you're playing on easy mode in Canada.
00:01:25.620 You can pretty easily mop up a lot of seats in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.
00:01:30.360 But the Liberals have gotten so used to the idea that it's easy to win as a Liberal,
00:01:34.600 they've just decided we can govern however we want.
00:01:37.320 And while that's kind of true if you're a Liberal, when you start hurting the country as much as they have,
00:01:42.420 even Toronto voters start to get a little bit shaky.
00:01:44.620 So yes, they'll still win the majority of seats in Montreal, Toronto, and not quite downtown Vancouver anymore.
00:01:51.780 But that's not enough.
00:01:53.220 They still need another third of their votes to be coming from non-urban GTA areas.
00:01:59.140 And they just don't have that anymore.
00:02:00.740 They are losing Atlantic Canada famously right now.
00:02:03.900 The Conservatives are at 48% in Atlantic Canada, with the Liberals trailing by 29.
00:02:08.480 That's insane, considering Atlantic Canada went 100% for the Liberals back in 2015.
00:02:15.280 And it's even worse when it comes to age demographics.
00:02:18.680 This is, the Liberals used to be a party for older pensioners.
00:02:22.320 And while they still disproportionately do better with older voters,
00:02:25.780 they are not anywhere close to leading the Conservatives.
00:02:29.260 And it's because when they kept spending massive amounts of money every single year, including this new budget,
00:02:35.020 which is increasing inflation and it's putting people's benefits at risk, those voters flee from you hard.
00:02:41.440 And that's also why the Conservatives are winning women now, 0.98
00:02:44.660 when that used to be a historic demographic that the Liberals could rely on.
00:02:48.500 Because women tend to like a sort of a policy that's very safe and consistent. 1.00
00:02:53.620 And because the Liberals are typically in office way more than the Conservatives,
00:02:57.260 the Liberals are considered the safe default.
00:02:59.820 But Justin Trudeau is actually a very NDP-ish, orange Liberal Party leader.
00:03:04.680 And so his constant new benefit programs that fall on their face, increase inflation,
00:03:09.660 his bad policy when it comes to criminal justice, all this stuff has completely alienated women. 1.00
00:03:15.000 And like I always say, right now the Liberals are at 23% nationally.
00:03:20.740 And when you look at Justin Trudeau's approval rating, he's only at a 25% approval rating.
00:03:25.560 I have never seen the Liberal Party outpace Justin Trudeau's approval rating.
00:03:30.000 His approval rating and their national vote are always within 1% or 2%.
00:03:34.320 Because if you don't like Justin Trudeau, you're not voting Liberal.
00:03:38.700 But I want to highlight something here that's kind of funny,
00:03:41.320 is that not only does Justin Trudeau only have a 25% approval rating according to this Abacus data poll,
00:03:48.060 but he's literally less popular than the Freedom Convoy and COVID protesters,
00:03:53.660 who were like the absolute most demonized group of people over the past three years by the media.
00:04:00.280 So even though these people have been basically hammered at by the media year after year,
00:04:06.840 every single hour of the day, especially when COVID was really big,
00:04:10.720 these people are way more popular than Justin Trudeau is.
00:04:14.420 Because as time has gone on, even though people had a very negative impression of anyone who stood up to lockdowns and mandates,
00:04:21.080 over time, people, as they get out of that COVID era emergency mindset, 0.98
00:04:25.780 they're realizing, yeah, that was really dumb. 0.82
00:04:28.300 Maybe it was kind of bad to lock people up at home, 0.98
00:04:30.960 force them to get vaccinated when they didn't want to and all that and whatnot.
00:04:34.380 So now COVID protesters have a 42% approval rating in terms of people agreeing with their actions,
00:04:41.920 with only 51% disagreeing.
00:04:44.080 And yes, it's still a majority who didn't like them.
00:04:46.620 But Canada is very much what I call a middle class cultured country.
00:04:51.440 Middle class people, and we're all middle class people watching this video,
00:04:55.060 most likely unless you're super rich or in like a rare person who's in the very low kind of income demographic in Canada.
00:05:03.460 Most of us tend to not like to be super loud about politics.
00:05:07.860 We don't like to be loud about our beliefs.
00:05:09.680 So anyone protesting anything tends to get a lot of disapproval by the Canadian public
00:05:13.760 because it's very emotional and Canadians don't like emotional politics very much.
00:05:18.280 It's like if you see someone crying in front of you, you kind of look away instinctually.
00:05:22.720 It's uncomfortable because you can't match their sort of energy.
00:05:25.840 So a lot of Canadians, because they don't get very hot blood about politics,
00:05:28.440 when they see people protesting, there's an inherent automatic dislike.
00:05:32.500 And the fact that now 42% of people actually agree with what the COVID protesters were doing is really good progress.
00:05:41.160 But here is another funny thing I want to talk about.
00:05:44.320 And it's the general Canadian public and then Gen X and Z voters' impression of Justin Trudeau
00:05:51.020 compared to Pure Polyev when a bunch of different scenarios are pitched at them.
00:05:55.880 So this is Justin Trudeau versus Pure Polyev with Gen Z and millennial voters.
00:06:00.500 So the only category in which Justin Trudeau leads Pure Polyev is if you were to pick someone to host a party,
00:06:07.980 in which I can't blame people.
00:06:09.720 Justin Trudeau seems like he would maybe be a more fun guy compared to Pure Polyev. 0.99
00:06:14.200 I'd probably go to a party Pure Polyev hosted because I don't like parties. 0.60
00:06:18.300 And Pure Polyev doesn't exactly seem like the party animal type that Justin Trudeau is.
00:06:22.040 And when you go down through these categories, as much as this is just kind of fun,
00:06:26.460 as you go down to more serious sort of life decisions and events,
00:06:30.740 when it says putting up a shelf, Pure Polyev has a 20-point lead with younger voters over Justin Trudeau.
00:06:37.520 Being in charge of the map for a road trip, Pure Polyev gets a 24% lead.
00:06:41.980 Putting out a kitchen counter fire, plus 19 Pure Polyev.
00:06:47.600 Solving an escape room, plus 18 Pure Polyev.
00:06:50.080 Negotiating a discount, plus 18 Pure Polyev.
00:06:52.960 It's because nobody trusts Justin Trudeau to do anything past tying his own shoes.
00:06:58.300 And even then, you don't really trust him that much, but it's his own shoes.
00:07:02.320 So, you know, he can only hurt himself.
00:07:05.140 But Justin Trudeau is just not trusted with anything actually serious.
00:07:08.860 And here's another one, I think this is just the public in general, not just Gen Z and millennials.
00:07:15.220 Again, Justin Trudeau leads with hosting a house party, but on pretty much everything else,
00:07:20.460 it's Pure Polyev leading by 20 points, and there's some where he only leads by one,
00:07:25.520 but it's stuff like hosting and having an event at a bar or whatever.
00:07:29.500 People just think of Justin Trudeau as someone you'd maybe be a friend of, 0.99
00:07:33.740 but you don't put that idiot in charge of anything that actually matters. 0.99
00:07:37.300 And that's a really bad impression of a leader if you're actually trying to run for public office. 1.00
00:07:42.840 The fact that after nine years on the job,
00:07:46.240 Justin Trudeau appears to be someone who's not very serious as a politician
00:07:50.420 is like the death knell of the Liberal Party.
00:07:53.340 The fact that after nine years, people don't see you as somebody who can balance a checkbook,
00:07:57.880 people don't see you as somebody who can negotiate a discount or put out a kitchen fire,
00:08:02.800 because truly the Liberal Party's governance of this country has been a nine-year house fire.
00:08:09.060 That's telling that voters don't really associate you with being an analytical person.
00:08:16.160 And that's really what shows why Justin Trudeau has such a hyper-progressive base.
00:08:21.180 It's a group of people who don't actually care about political issues in terms of your effectiveness
00:08:26.160 and carrying out your duty as prime minister, balancing the budget, keeping taxes low,
00:08:31.020 keeping programs being delivered efficiently.
00:08:33.360 They just care about power.
00:08:35.340 They care about the right values in government, and they don't care if it messes up the country.
00:08:39.280 These are the people who go around protesting, screaming down with Canada, land back. 0.74
00:08:43.880 Canada's a colonial racist state.
00:08:46.240 These are the kind of voters who are sticking with Justin Trudeau.
00:08:48.600 And in time, because he's been getting very, very unpopular,
00:08:53.140 the funny thing is that Justin Trudeau is making the same mistake that Joe Biden is in the U.S.,
00:08:58.380 that he's losing voters on his left flank, so he has to become even more left-wing
00:09:03.760 and compete with Jagmeet Singh more for voters.
00:09:06.960 He's losing all the voters in the middle who are going to go and vote conservative
00:09:10.380 because they were only going to be around the Liberals as far as they didn't completely screw up the country.
00:09:15.840 And now that all of the economic data is coming back
00:09:19.380 and people are being smacked in the face with it every single day, they are not happy.
00:09:23.680 Anyways, I just want to quickly look again at the regionals,
00:09:26.060 but it's remarkable that in British Columbia, the Conservatives are only at almost 49% of the vote.
00:09:31.220 And I got to urge you guys, if you live in B.C., you got to vote for the B.C. Conservatives provincially.
00:09:36.840 That is another domino that needs to fall for pure polyepathy.
00:09:40.220 If he does become prime minister to be able to govern effectively,
00:09:43.080 he needs a radical premier like David Eby out of his way.
00:09:47.000 And the fact that 49% of people are voting federal conservative,
00:09:50.220 yet around 40% of people are voting B.C. NDP,
00:09:54.380 I guarantee there are a lot of people saying,
00:09:56.240 I'm voting federal conservative, but they're still voting provincial NDP at the moment,
00:09:59.880 or at least they're committing to that.
00:10:01.860 Those people need to be reached,
00:10:03.160 and they need to be told that the B.C. provincial conservatives can actually win.
00:10:06.980 So don't vote for a guy who's going to stymie everything
00:10:09.740 that Pierre Polyev wants to do on a national level.
00:10:13.120 And then in Ontario, Conservatives 43, Liberals 28.
00:10:16.540 There's a reason that when you see some of these electoral projections on the map,
00:10:20.180 you're actually starting to see downtown Montreal and downtown Toronto ridings flipping blue.
00:10:25.500 Because these ridings are actually very divided between the Liberals NDP,
00:10:29.660 and usually even the Greens can score 8 to 10 points in these ridings.
00:10:32.560 The Conservatives don't actually need that many gains in Toronto in order to be very competitive.
00:10:37.300 It's just been that the Conservatives sit around the low 20s,
00:10:40.600 and then the Liberals and the NDP are sitting around the higher 30s fighting with each other.
00:10:46.140 So in a lot of these ridings, if the Conservatives can gain 10%,
00:10:49.160 they're in the game, and they actually have a solid shot of flipping these areas.
00:10:53.280 Kevin Vong, the independent MP,
00:10:55.200 his riding on 338 actually shows that he has like a 5% chance of winning that riding right now,
00:11:00.420 or the Conservatives would if he was the candidate.
00:11:03.080 That's really good, considering Spadina-Fort York is a deeply, deeply red-orange riding.
00:11:10.300 It's basically 80% red or orange.
00:11:14.000 I'm just looking at the 338 numbers right now.
00:11:16.960 Ooh, that's St. Catharines.
00:11:18.040 I don't want that.
00:11:18.660 Come on.
00:11:23.600 For some reason, I keep clicking on Spadina-Fort York here.
00:11:26.180 It keeps bringing up St. Catharines.
00:11:27.620 I'm sorry, 338 is messing up.
00:11:29.520 But anyways, I think it holds true that right now,
00:11:32.280 even these downtown ridings, like right in the city center core,
00:11:36.040 Christia Freeland's riding could be lost to the Conservatives.
00:11:38.220 And it's because all these left-wing voters,
00:11:40.680 it's not even that we're flipping them Conservative.
00:11:42.740 A lot of them are also just going to stay home,
00:11:44.380 because it's hard to keep showing up and voting for the party that's barely hanging on.
00:11:48.620 Eventually, you're going to let them just fall off the cliff
00:11:51.280 rather than coming to their rescue every year.
00:11:53.560 Anyways, that should be it for me, guys, today.
00:11:56.080 I just quickly want to do my normal plug that I, Wyatt Claypool,
00:11:59.900 am running for the Calgary-Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:12:03.280 In a couple days, the riding boundaries are changing,
00:12:05.560 and this is what they're going to look like.
00:12:07.160 So if you live on the west side of Calgary in this federal riding,
00:12:10.220 buy a Conservative Party membership, vote for me in the nomination,
00:12:13.500 and check out my website, wyattclaypool.com.
00:12:16.640 And also, if you want to donate to the TNT Legal Fund,
00:12:19.520 it would really help reduce the burden of cost on us for our legal matter
00:12:22.960 that we're fighting with this Chinese billionaire developer.
00:12:26.780 He's suing us for defamation and still hasn't submitted any evidence,
00:12:30.240 showing how we defamed him in over two years.
00:12:32.420 I've just gotten another bill for like $2,000 of legal fees.
00:12:35.880 So being able to donate anything to help me out with that
00:12:38.480 really does reduce the burden of cost.
00:12:41.040 And I can focus more on this show
00:12:42.340 rather than figuring out ways of paying for these ridiculously high legal costs.
00:12:46.100 Because this one case alone in less than two years
00:12:49.500 has basically cost me over $29,000.
00:12:52.000 But anyways, I'll see you guys next time with another video
00:12:55.780 likely talking about Justin Trudeau messing up something else
00:12:59.080 because it's just become a pattern since the budget dropped.