The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 14, 2023


Trudeau Unpopularity Spikes! (Worst Polling Yet)

Topics
liberal narrative
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Jagmeet Singh
Mask-Crazy Liberal Won't Trick Canadians Again Justin Trudeau's Marketing Sucks

Episode Stats


Length

8 minutes

Words per minute

204.57

Word count

1,834

Sentence count

84

Harmful content

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau is at his lowest approval rating ever, according to a new Abacus poll. I talk about why this is happening, and why it could be so bad for the Liberal Party of Canada. I also talk about what it means for the chances of a Conservative victory in the upcoming election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.360 Every time I finish a video on polling, I assume I can take a break from talking about it for a few weeks, because in a typical year, month to month, the polling is usually absolutely the same.
00:00:09.840 In the last month and a half, though, in Canadian politics, the polls have been moving rapidly.
00:00:14.960 And Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have been in an absolute nosedive in terms of approval ratings, as well as the national choice of Canadians.
00:00:22.120 Right now, we keep getting every two days probably a new poll showing that the Liberals are significantly underwater, and by more than they were two days ago.
00:00:31.440 It is insane. And today is absolutely no exception.
00:00:35.720 This new Abacus data poll shows that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is at his highest disapproval rating ever, and at his lowest approval rating ever.
00:00:44.580 That is insane, because think of the context right now.
00:00:47.960 There's no We Charity scandal, there's no SNC-Lavalin scandal, there's no Aducon Island, and even the CCP interference issues, that one's kind of a bit of a slow burn of a story, and I don't think most Canadians are even paying attention anymore.
00:01:01.140 Anyways, I just want to bring this right up on screen.
00:01:03.260 So right now, Justin Trudeau, according to this Abacus poll, is at 56% disapproval, and only 27% approval.
00:01:11.420 And why I think this is happening, because I just said, there's no scandals really going on.
00:01:16.240 There's nothing that's really shocked Canadians, and they're turning against Trudeau.
00:01:20.320 My theory of what's happening right now is that there's a lot of Liberal voters who were patiently waiting since maybe 2019
00:01:28.340 for Justin Trudeau to basically either admit to some of the mistakes of his government and focus on improving them,
00:01:34.480 you know, say, we've been doing this wrong, and this is what we're going to do to fix it,
00:01:37.680 and this is what, you know, maybe the progressive policy that we need to get out of this, like, deep economic funk or whatever.
00:01:44.000 And they've been waiting for Justin Trudeau to either, you know, put Canada on a new path,
00:01:48.540 or at very least be able to demonstrate he has the capacity for personal growth and the ability to become a better leader.
00:01:54.140 And over the past several years, he has not proven that he's capable of that at all.
00:01:59.560 They've only seen Justin Trudeau effectively making excuses for all the Liberal policy failures,
00:02:04.880 ignoring the policy failures, or trying to pretend that all these policy failures are secretly positives.
00:02:10.320 It's like every time Justin Trudeau releases some sort of new subsidy, like the grocery rebate,
00:02:16.160 or the carbon tax rebates and stuff like that, while his actual fiscal monetary policy is hurting Canadians,
00:02:22.860 he spins the, like, symptoms of him giving you a little bit of your tax money back as somehow a big success of his.
00:02:30.300 And I think a lot of Liberal voters who are soft Liberals are realizing that they should probably just, like,
00:02:36.080 leave the party at this point because there's not going to be any improvements from here on out.
00:02:41.600 And I think what is also interesting to see is that right now,
00:02:45.760 Justin Trudeau's approval rating at only 27% almost perfectly matches where the Liberals are currently in national polling.
00:02:52.180 When I bring up the national polling right here, you'll see the Liberals are at 26% with the Conservatives at 41%.
00:02:57.900 One really bad thing that's happened to the Liberal Party in the last few years is that the party has big,
00:03:04.260 like, the Liberal Party brand and Justin Trudeau's name are completely linked together.
00:03:08.600 There's no way of separating the two.
00:03:10.580 They, like, if you like Justin Trudeau, you might vote Liberal.
00:03:13.560 And if you don't like Justin Trudeau, you are definitely not voting Liberal.
00:03:16.640 That is the, but, like, on the inverse, with the Conservative Party, they don't have that problem at all.
00:03:22.200 If you like Conservative Party, like, policy, you will vote Conservative, even if you don't like Pierre Polyev.
00:03:27.500 If you like Pierre Polyev and you don't really even like everything about the Conservative Party's policy book,
00:03:32.540 or if you just don't really know too much about it, you at least trust Pierre so you'll vote for them.
00:03:36.840 So those are two big assets for the Conservative Party right now.
00:03:39.560 It's their local MPs and their policy that are driving a lot of support for them, as well as the leader.
00:03:45.140 Right now, Justin Trudeau, every single factor inside the Liberal Party that a usual political party would be able to use to, like, try and different voters are all tied together.
00:03:54.660 So you have to like the Liberal policy and Justin Trudeau in order to vote Liberal.
00:03:59.240 There's no way of just saying, I think Justin Trudeau's charismatic, so I'm going to go for it.
00:04:02.680 The only way you're voting for Justin Trudeau these days, pretty much,
00:04:05.520 is either if you've still not woken up to the actual state of the country, because maybe you're so sheltered by having a lot of money,
00:04:11.740 or you are effectively paid by Justin Trudeau through subsidized industries, through the media,
00:04:16.720 through effectively working in elite government positions,
00:04:19.960 or you just don't care about policy at all because you're a crazy social progressive who thinks that parental rights are evil.
00:04:26.720 That's effectively Justin Trudeau's base at this point.
00:04:29.120 Some of them will probably never abandon him because he gives them what they want,
00:04:32.040 like the social progressives and the people he's giving money to.
00:04:34.620 But the remaining folks who just have not been watching the news,
00:04:38.960 or at least because the news is so slanted, they haven't been noticing how bad inflation is
00:04:43.160 and how it's obviously Liberal Party policy that's to blame.
00:04:47.620 Regardless, I don't think that Justin Trudeau is going to be able to recover from this
00:04:50.920 because to recover, he would effectively have to do something he's never done before,
00:04:56.240 which is, you know, say he messed up and say how he's going to fix it.
00:04:59.460 And one other poll, a stat right here that came out of the Alex data poll that's really bad for the Liberals
00:05:05.200 is just the fact that not only are they losing in every demographic, but they're losing to the NDP with younger voters.
00:05:11.940 Younger left-leaning voters are far more likely to go and vote NDP or block if they happen to be in that 30 to 44 demographic in Quebec.
00:05:20.600 But right now, the Liberals have become actually a very old party.
00:05:25.520 They went 32% of 16-0.
00:05:27.480 Obviously, the Conservatives are still ahead, but that just demonstrates that they're at 41% of the polls.
00:05:31.660 So obviously, they're going to dominate every single demographic,
00:05:34.160 whether that demographic is usually more predisposed to voting for them or not.
00:05:39.080 Now, the problem for the Liberals is that this means that they don't really have a future generation
00:05:43.340 of kind of like liberal candidates and leaders to come up to sort of support this party.
00:05:48.360 I could see the Liberal Party actually in the next 10 years effectively becoming like the BC United Party.
00:05:54.280 Like the BC United Party has slipped into third place after it changed its name for the Liberals
00:05:58.880 because the party basically stands up for nothing other than effectively just pushing woke policies,
00:06:05.940 keeping high spending completely stagnant,
00:06:08.420 and not really doing anything for anybody but offering a lot of subsidies and other sort of giveaway programs,
00:06:14.360 pretending like that's really going to improve the actual macroeconomic position of their province.
00:06:20.300 Same thing's happening with the Liberals.
00:06:21.920 They're not offering anything.
00:06:23.100 It's just the same march towards wokeism, same subsidy program, same everything. 0.75
00:06:27.720 It's a very boring party in a certain sense, which is funny because in 2015,
00:06:31.860 I think a lot of people would say that Justin Trudeau is very interesting and energetic.
00:06:35.640 And these days, even though he's like not exactly an old man, seems old.
00:06:41.040 It's because all the policies are very almost bloated and big government in orientation.
00:06:46.200 Say what you will about Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, who are also not doing well in the polls,
00:06:49.860 but that's not things ever changed for the NDP.
00:06:51.940 At least you could say if you're more one of the socialistic progressive types,
00:06:56.440 you could maybe be excited about the big, bold plans the NDP have.
00:07:00.160 They're not going to work.
00:07:01.020 They're going to make the country worse.
00:07:02.600 But at least you could say they're somewhat exciting.
00:07:04.760 That's why they're able to hold on to the percentage of the vote that they do,
00:07:08.000 even though it's completely unjustified based on their competency level.
00:07:11.240 But with the Conservatives, they're definitely skyrocketing because their narrative that
00:07:15.760 they're pushing is very youthful in orientation.
00:07:18.780 Even though they're still winning a lot of older voters, their narrative appeals to young
00:07:23.940 voters that take control of your life.
00:07:25.480 The government doesn't need to do everything for you.
00:07:27.520 You're going to make your own success.
00:07:28.820 The government should stop taxing you.
00:07:30.180 You go start your own business.
00:07:31.320 You go start your own family.
00:07:32.280 Here's how we should get you into a house so you can buy your own house, not relying on
00:07:36.000 public housing.
00:07:37.140 That is a great narrative for younger voters.
00:07:39.600 The liberal, like what's the liberal narrative?
00:07:41.440 You know, maybe you work a government job and we'll give you a pension one day that you
00:07:44.680 can subsist on.
00:07:45.600 That's a great narrative if you're 60 years and older and maybe you're struggling and
00:07:48.980 you just want the government to maybe come in for the rescue right now and just say like,
00:07:52.840 you know, here's $30,000 over the next five years for yourself.
00:07:55.860 You know, like that hopefully that will support you.
00:07:57.840 But when you're 30 years old, you don't want to hear when you're 65 years old, you might
00:08:02.060 have a really nice pension that will make the struggle worth it.
00:08:05.300 You just want to actually succeed, not just have this faux government supported success,
00:08:10.000 which is completely reflected by the sorts of businesses still very pro-liberal.
00:08:16.060 It's the media, it's EV companies, and it's other sorts of like heavily subsidized
00:08:21.100 protected industries.
00:08:22.860 It's just people wanting a safety blanket and the Conservative Party might not have that
00:08:27.480 warm safety blanket feel, but isn't that such a better way of living?
00:08:31.720 Anyways, that's it for me today.
00:08:33.380 If you want to donate to my legal fund, I'm getting sued by a Chinese billionaire right 1.00
00:08:36.940 now.
00:08:37.200 I'm winning.
00:08:38.040 You can donate to me in my gifts and go link in the description of this video.
00:08:41.840 Also sign up for TNT emails also linked in the description of this video.
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00:08:50.120 don't have to rely on social media and YouTube algorithms to actually show us our videos.
00:08:55.620 Anyways, that should be it for me today.
00:08:57.300 Have a great day.