Justin Trudeau is at his lowest approval rating ever, according to a new Abacus poll. I talk about why this is happening, and why it could be so bad for the Liberal Party of Canada. I also talk about what it means for the chances of a Conservative victory in the upcoming election.
00:00:00.360Every time I finish a video on polling, I assume I can take a break from talking about it for a few weeks, because in a typical year, month to month, the polling is usually absolutely the same.
00:00:09.840In the last month and a half, though, in Canadian politics, the polls have been moving rapidly.
00:00:14.960And Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have been in an absolute nosedive in terms of approval ratings, as well as the national choice of Canadians.
00:00:22.120Right now, we keep getting every two days probably a new poll showing that the Liberals are significantly underwater, and by more than they were two days ago.
00:00:31.440It is insane. And today is absolutely no exception.
00:00:35.720This new Abacus data poll shows that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is at his highest disapproval rating ever, and at his lowest approval rating ever.
00:00:44.580That is insane, because think of the context right now.
00:00:47.960There's no We Charity scandal, there's no SNC-Lavalin scandal, there's no Aducon Island, and even the CCP interference issues, that one's kind of a bit of a slow burn of a story, and I don't think most Canadians are even paying attention anymore.
00:01:01.140Anyways, I just want to bring this right up on screen.
00:01:03.260So right now, Justin Trudeau, according to this Abacus poll, is at 56% disapproval, and only 27% approval.
00:01:11.420And why I think this is happening, because I just said, there's no scandals really going on.
00:01:16.240There's nothing that's really shocked Canadians, and they're turning against Trudeau.
00:01:20.320My theory of what's happening right now is that there's a lot of Liberal voters who were patiently waiting since maybe 2019
00:01:28.340for Justin Trudeau to basically either admit to some of the mistakes of his government and focus on improving them,
00:01:34.480you know, say, we've been doing this wrong, and this is what we're going to do to fix it,
00:01:37.680and this is what, you know, maybe the progressive policy that we need to get out of this, like, deep economic funk or whatever.
00:01:44.000And they've been waiting for Justin Trudeau to either, you know, put Canada on a new path,
00:01:48.540or at very least be able to demonstrate he has the capacity for personal growth and the ability to become a better leader.
00:01:54.140And over the past several years, he has not proven that he's capable of that at all.
00:01:59.560They've only seen Justin Trudeau effectively making excuses for all the Liberal policy failures,
00:02:04.880ignoring the policy failures, or trying to pretend that all these policy failures are secretly positives.
00:02:10.320It's like every time Justin Trudeau releases some sort of new subsidy, like the grocery rebate,
00:02:16.160or the carbon tax rebates and stuff like that, while his actual fiscal monetary policy is hurting Canadians,
00:02:22.860he spins the, like, symptoms of him giving you a little bit of your tax money back as somehow a big success of his.
00:02:30.300And I think a lot of Liberal voters who are soft Liberals are realizing that they should probably just, like,
00:02:36.080leave the party at this point because there's not going to be any improvements from here on out.
00:02:41.600And I think what is also interesting to see is that right now,
00:02:45.760Justin Trudeau's approval rating at only 27% almost perfectly matches where the Liberals are currently in national polling.
00:02:52.180When I bring up the national polling right here, you'll see the Liberals are at 26% with the Conservatives at 41%.
00:02:57.900One really bad thing that's happened to the Liberal Party in the last few years is that the party has big,
00:03:04.260like, the Liberal Party brand and Justin Trudeau's name are completely linked together.
00:03:10.580They, like, if you like Justin Trudeau, you might vote Liberal.
00:03:13.560And if you don't like Justin Trudeau, you are definitely not voting Liberal.
00:03:16.640That is the, but, like, on the inverse, with the Conservative Party, they don't have that problem at all.
00:03:22.200If you like Conservative Party, like, policy, you will vote Conservative, even if you don't like Pierre Polyev.
00:03:27.500If you like Pierre Polyev and you don't really even like everything about the Conservative Party's policy book,
00:03:32.540or if you just don't really know too much about it, you at least trust Pierre so you'll vote for them.
00:03:36.840So those are two big assets for the Conservative Party right now.
00:03:39.560It's their local MPs and their policy that are driving a lot of support for them, as well as the leader.
00:03:45.140Right now, Justin Trudeau, every single factor inside the Liberal Party that a usual political party would be able to use to, like, try and different voters are all tied together.
00:03:54.660So you have to like the Liberal policy and Justin Trudeau in order to vote Liberal.
00:03:59.240There's no way of just saying, I think Justin Trudeau's charismatic, so I'm going to go for it.
00:04:02.680The only way you're voting for Justin Trudeau these days, pretty much,
00:04:05.520is either if you've still not woken up to the actual state of the country, because maybe you're so sheltered by having a lot of money,
00:04:11.740or you are effectively paid by Justin Trudeau through subsidized industries, through the media,
00:04:16.720through effectively working in elite government positions,
00:04:19.960or you just don't care about policy at all because you're a crazy social progressive who thinks that parental rights are evil.
00:04:26.720That's effectively Justin Trudeau's base at this point.
00:04:29.120Some of them will probably never abandon him because he gives them what they want,
00:04:32.040like the social progressives and the people he's giving money to.
00:04:34.620But the remaining folks who just have not been watching the news,
00:04:38.960or at least because the news is so slanted, they haven't been noticing how bad inflation is
00:04:43.160and how it's obviously Liberal Party policy that's to blame.
00:04:47.620Regardless, I don't think that Justin Trudeau is going to be able to recover from this
00:04:50.920because to recover, he would effectively have to do something he's never done before,
00:04:56.240which is, you know, say he messed up and say how he's going to fix it.
00:04:59.460And one other poll, a stat right here that came out of the Alex data poll that's really bad for the Liberals
00:05:05.200is just the fact that not only are they losing in every demographic, but they're losing to the NDP with younger voters.
00:05:11.940Younger left-leaning voters are far more likely to go and vote NDP or block if they happen to be in that 30 to 44 demographic in Quebec.
00:05:20.600But right now, the Liberals have become actually a very old party.