00:00:00.280Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back for some more polling time on the whiteboard.
00:00:05.960As you can see, today we are going to be talking about Maiho province of Alberta,
00:00:10.860and specifically discussing the by-election that took place in Calgary-Shaw,
00:00:15.680and how its results contrast with the polling numbers we're seeing out of firms like Leger and Abacus Data.
00:00:22.660I actually don't think the two are exactly in conflict.
00:00:25.800What we have going on in Alberta right now is, I believe, an enthusiasm gap between the NDP and the UCP.
00:00:34.040Because the UCP is currently leading massively in the polls.
00:00:38.480Nahid Nenshi is not a good NDP leader.
00:00:41.460But they ended up flipping the Calgary Shaw provincial riding from the UCP to the NDP,
00:00:46.880a riding that was considered a very safe UCP riding in the city.
00:00:51.380Now, we just have to remember that it's a by-election and turnout rates are very low,
00:00:55.780and I find that the NDP typically has an advantage,
00:00:59.060seeing as they have such a strong union base that are very easy to activate to go and vote.
00:01:03.980But there were many other things in play that we're going to be discussing first,
00:01:07.540and then we're going to be getting into the overall provincial polling
00:01:10.440and talking about how the UCP can motivate their voters to get out
00:01:14.400and smash the NDP in the next provincial election.
00:01:17.740But before we get into that, I just want to remind you guys,
00:01:20.500if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on the video. Subscribe if you are not yet a
00:01:24.720subscriber. Consider hitting the join button if you want to become a monthly contributor to the
00:01:29.460channel. And by the way, I'm actually running for the UCP nomination for the riding of Calgary
00:01:35.500Curry in Southwest Calgary, that Killarney, Glendale, Spruce Cliff, Curry, Bankview kind of
00:01:42.160area. If you live in that area, sign up at my website pinned at the top of the comments,
00:01:47.260why at claypool.com, and I'll try and give you a call if you live in the riding. We'll have a
00:01:52.020conversation about what you know about the riding, what I've seen in the riding, and what my plan is
00:01:56.960to try and win it back from the current NDP incumbent. But anyways, I've preemptively written
00:02:02.180down all the numbers on the board here for the Calgary Shaw by-election. You guys don't want to
00:02:06.820see me slowly write down by-election results. It's not really that interesting. So what ended up
00:02:11.640happening is the MVP took the riding with 46% of the vote to the UCP's 43%. Again, let's always
00:02:20.060remember the number, 33% turnout. Last provincial election, there was 63% turnout when Rebecca
00:02:28.000Schultz won the riding with a 14% victory margin. Quite a safe seat. Now, some people have kind of
00:02:36.140gone into the vote-splitting narrative. I do not think the UCP's vote was split by the
00:02:42.060progressive Tories and the Alberta Liberals. Obviously, the Alberta Liberals did not split
00:02:46.900the UCP vote. If anything, I think these two parties in the general election next year in
00:02:53.240October 2027 are going to be doing more damage to the NDP than the UCP. But people see percentages
00:03:00.520And they see the UCP may have had 6% taken by the progressive Tories, and if you add 6% to 43, they would have beat the MVP. It's just not how it works. I was on the ground in that campaign, and what I observed at the doors is many people like Daniel Smith. They like the UCP. They think the government's doing a good job.
00:03:22.640heck, Mark Carney's achievements, all the claimed achievements he has, are mostly just
00:03:28.060Daniel Smith's achievements that he's passing off as his own. Hey, we've created a bunch of jobs.
00:03:32.740Well, half the jobs are from Alberta. Hey, crime's going down. Well, the biggest drops in crime are
00:03:37.360in Alberta. Hey, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And it's usually something Alberta's done whenever
00:03:42.100Mark Carney's bragging about some sort of metric in Canada, about like new investments or the GDP
00:03:47.080growth. Everything's happening in Alberta. But what happened was that generally doing a really
00:03:52.820good job doesn't get people out to vote. I wish this was the 1960s and people voted because it
00:03:59.100was their duty to, because they fought in World War II or their father fought in World War II.
00:04:04.000And, you know, heck, it's our right and it's our duty to vote. People sometimes don't work that
00:04:09.540way these days. And I think that what the UCP needs is a strong narrative for why you need to
00:04:15.020out the door and vote. It can't just be stop the NDP. Harper did this against Trudeau and the NDP
00:04:19.780in 2015, and he lost. And Harper was doing a good job as prime minister. And so what we need is
00:04:25.280saying, hey, we're going to go back to a flat tax. Hey, we have this new health care plan. Hey, we
00:04:30.000have this new education plan. That's what the UCP really needs to be pushing, that they have this
00:04:36.480thing that you need to elect them to in order to do. Because people don't really turn out as much
00:04:43.220when it comes to we're generally doing a good job. I think the UCP is default still going to
00:04:47.860win the next provincial election. Again, this is not representative. But the UCP's vote dropped
00:04:52.98013 points, not because the NDP stole some or the progressive Tories or the liberals. I think this
00:04:58.400was purely a turnout game. Notice that the NDP vote didn't go up that much. They are still
00:05:04.280severely underwater from where the UCP were when they won the riding. It's not like the vote the
00:05:10.240The party's flipped. The NDP went up slightly and won the riding simply because guys didn't turn out. Again, my experience, the door was people kind of didn't want to. They just didn't really know. They weren't. Some of the people are mad about the referendum and they don't really like that. And by the time the next election rolls around, that's not even going to be a factor. Some people are mad about misinformation, about disability benefits being taken away, or, you know, somehow schools are being underfunded, even though UCP is funding them heavily.
00:05:37.440But I think that it's kind of a combination of things. We can't say it's a vote split. If progressive Tories took any UCP votes, that's really not a vote split. That's, I think, a motivation gap right now.
00:05:49.360If it was the referendum, it wasn't fully the referendum.
00:05:52.560Some people want to blame the referendum on it, and it's those, you know, nasty separatists.
00:05:57.300But at the same time, there are pro-independence people who I find artificially sit out of the elections, and they will tell me, well, I'm not voting because I'm too focused on the independence thing.
00:06:09.380I want the UCP to become an independence party before I vote for them.
00:06:12.820It's not going to happen, guys, and it shouldn't happen.
00:06:16.100The thing is that parties are meant to win elections. And if you're supporting a movement with about a quarter of support of Albertans, the UCP aren't going to jump on that. And people say, well, I'm supporting it for my kids.
00:06:28.700Okay, so you're going to support a movement with 25% to 30% support for your kids, even though it will basically give the next provincial election to the NDP and the movement that we're close to winning.
00:06:42.260I'm not trying to be rude, but that's kind of how it's sounding these days. The movement's leaders, the people who started the movement, didn't know what they were doing. This is not a shot at Cory Morgan or people like Keith Wilson. They're doing a fine job. Even if I don't support the movement, they're very respectable people.
00:06:59.100It's the people who collected the signatures and were promoting the movement who knew it didn't have support in suburban areas to win.
00:07:05.780And now they're basically demanding that the UCP, like, I guess, embrace them.
00:07:13.200But this is the lay of the land in Calgary Shaw.
00:07:16.260And I think it may actually be positive that the UCP stares the nightmare scenario in the face.
00:07:22.620If you don't have a good enough campaign narrative, if the referendum is really affecting voters, this is how it's going to turn out unless you change the channel and you make the election about something big you're doing and how the NDP are too radical to take government.
00:08:18.280There are many pro-life policies I wouldn't push for because people don't want them. And I cannot force voters to take something that they didn't vote for, that they didn't want. And the funny thing is I sometimes bump into independence guys who are not pro-life, but then they think that I should just completely throw everything out in order to support their thing, having not really made good arguments to me. And they also don't want to acknowledge that the support isn't there.
00:08:42.360I'm not pushing a referendum on something around a pro-life issue, because I'd only do it if I thought the support was there.
00:08:49.480You only go to the polls when you think you can win.
00:08:52.320If you're just going to the polls for the fun of it, you're going to lose.
00:08:55.040You have to convince people, then you have the vote.
00:08:57.720You don't have the vote and think you're going to convince people in the two months before the voting starts.
00:09:04.420Anyway, so we're going to erase this, and then we're going to come back to the provincial-wide numbers,
00:09:08.900And I can show you where the UCP are generally at with all voters, not just the most hyper likely voters in Calgary-Shaw.
00:09:17.540So I'm going to clean that up and we'll be back in literally a split second because I can pause and unpause.
00:09:23.440So we're back with the provincial wide polling.
00:09:26.460And again, this is going to be very different from the Shaw by-election.
00:09:29.700And David Coletto, the person who runs Abacus Data, who put these numbers together, said that it's not like they're wildly off and the Calgary Shaw by-election has proven it.
00:09:41.020So it's that, again, there is a motivation gap in who is ticked off and willing to show up.
00:09:46.720Now, many people who are showing up mad voting NDP to get rid of the UCP, I'm just going to say that many of their issues are completely illegitimate, if not just based on, like, deliberate disinformation.
00:09:58.200The UCP is taking away your disability benefits. No, they're not. They are basically synchronizing the benefits that they give out provincially, federally, because actually Alberta gives the most amount in disability benefits compared to other provinces. And they effectively offset if the federal government gives you a big benefit, they'll slightly lower the one you're getting provincially because you're already getting money from the federal government.
00:10:20.900But people literally were running around Calgary Shaw believing, no, no, no, they're just getting rid of disability benefits. It's like, oh my goodness, no, they're not. No, they're not, guys. But let's get into the UCP versus NDP polling.
00:10:34.700So this is decided Alberta voters of people who are going to be voting in the next provincial
00:10:41.640election. They're not wishy-washy voters. They are people who actually know what they're going
00:10:45.960to be voting for. The UCP in this poll is at 52% of the vote. Definitely nothing to sneeze at here.
00:10:57.160The NDP are quite far behind at just 39% of the vote. And I think a lot of this originates with
00:11:06.560the leader, Nahid Nenshi. I think people just really don't like him. And I think the provincial
00:11:12.040by-election in Calgary Shaw had to do with everything was in spite of Nahid Nenshi as the
00:11:18.620NDP leader. It was the referendum. It was just kind of sluggish and kind of non-activated UCP
00:11:25.420people not showing up and it was just generally the referendum becoming a bit of a distraction
00:11:31.580there uh the progressive tories here are at six percent provincially again based on this poll i
00:11:40.380would say it's more clear that the progressive tories are hurting the ndp than they're hurting
00:11:45.260the conservatives shaw was just a turnout failure for the ucp there was just a big enthusiasm gap
00:11:52.220But when you put the percentages together and you say, oh, well, if we put that 6% with the UCP, they would have done better.
00:11:58.100It's like, I don't think that's the case.
00:12:00.380I think that this is a completely different party that doesn't have overlap with the conservatives, despite having Tory in the name.
00:12:06.640And then other in this poll was at 3% of the vote, which would encapsulate things like the Alberta Liberals, the Alberta Republican Party, and ones like that.
00:12:17.100So, as you can see here, this is a 13% lead for the UCP. Not too shabby, and it gets even less shabby when you actually go to the city of Calgary, where the UCP are maintaining quite a big lead, considering in the last provincial election, the NDP in Calgary ended up winning by, I believe, 1% or 2% of the vote.
00:12:40.740So, but what we have going on here is I think what is a much lower ceiling for NDP support, a higher ceiling for the UCP, but the amount of NDP voters motivated to turn out and vote is much higher than the UCP at the current moment.
00:13:01.560Let's say that in a general election where most people will go out and vote because it's their civic duty where they don't usually in the by-election, let's say it's that many people in the UCP who will vote no matter what the election is.
00:13:16.720If it's a by-election or if it's a general, that is the floor that they have for their voters turning out. Many UCP guys are non-unionized, so they are not being forced out by their own unions to vote.
00:13:29.140But, you know, it's just generally more of an independent-minded crowd.
00:13:33.340I'm going to vote when I want to, where the NDP and the left tends to be more collectivist.
00:13:37.700You have to vote. It's your duty to vote for the NDP, Borg, and all that.
00:13:41.500That if their ceiling for how many of their voters turn out is this in by-elections,
00:13:46.800well, they're going to win even if, in a general, they're quite a bit behind.
00:13:51.340You just need this kind of a gap to exist when it comes to hyper-motivated voters
00:13:56.800in order to flip by-elections that in theory shouldn't be going your way. That doesn't mean
00:14:02.920we should assume the 52% are going to show up on the general election or for the general election
00:14:08.420in 2027. The UCP should be rightfully sort of scared in a healthy manner that they may have a
00:14:16.640turnout issue again, that the MDP are going to beat them when it comes to early turnout. The UCP
00:14:22.540needs to be arrest less on the idea that there's a lot of default conservatives who will always show
00:14:27.980up they may always show up if they do show up and vote for you the whole point is are they actually
00:14:33.100going to vote are they actually going to show up we know they will vote for you if they show up
00:14:36.860how do you get that to happen and in a certain sense i think there needs to be a bit of shaming
00:14:41.100it's like i'm sorry you're a 35 uh year old man who's married with two kids and you're having me
00:14:47.660have to tell you to go out and vote, what are you doing? Come on, you own an elect, you're an
00:14:52.340electrician, you're a plumber, you work in finance, you get yourself to work every day, this is just
00:14:56.700part of your normal duty, and I think that needs to be pushed at people a bit. Now, after the
00:15:01.440referendum too, I think the enthusiasm gap for the Conservatives is going to improve over time,
00:15:07.060because the referendum, especially for suburban Calgary voters, is awkward. They don't support it,
00:15:13.600But the perception is that the UCP government is doing this referendum to them. They're not the independence campaigners as well as the Forever Canada people. They both had enough signatures to have the question asked, and we're doing the question.
00:15:27.360And I think the way Danielle Smith should deal with it is saying, hey, this, and I've even talked to her people. This is true. This is genuinely how she thinks about it. I think she should articulate this fully in public. But we let that happen because it's democracy. And two, we want Albertans to know where the movement support is actually at.
00:15:46.820So unlike so that it can no longer be used as a boogeyman, so that business owners are not scared that the jurisdictional kind of floor is going to shift underneath their feet and they don't know what jurisdiction they're in next year.
00:16:01.600When we show that the remain side is at 70 and the stays or the leave side is at 30, it's not happening.
00:16:11.920And if anyone is saying, well, Wyatt, you're propagandizing against it, you should get on board, you should talk about how great the movement is, the movement hasn't made that case themselves.
00:16:26.460I'd rather stay in a bigger entity and improve the whole thing over time rather than being on the retreat, because what's next? Is southern Alberta going to separate from northern Alberta? We are tired of Edmonton all voting NDP, so we don't want to be with them anymore.
00:16:41.480Guys, I, as an Albertan in Calgary, have a lot in common with people in southwestern Ontario, in New Brunswick, in Newfoundland and Labrador, in parts of British Columbia.
00:16:53.580It's hard to try and motivate people based on what is purely mostly a fiscal argument that you should separate because of equalization.
00:17:02.320Because after all of it comes out in the wash, if you separated and you don't pay equalization anymore, but you had to pay for certain things the federal government was paying for in bulk, and all of that ends up happening, maybe Alberta would still be better off.
00:17:16.900But we're burning a pretty big bridge for what might be a fairly marginal benefit that also prevents you from benefiting from being part of a larger country in the long run, too.
00:17:29.120I find some of the independence guys just act as if there's no such thing as an argument against it.
00:17:58.160But the thing is that they're using the movement in order to pretend it's not just because UCP voters are more likely to be pro-independence voters.
00:18:06.620I'm not saying you can't vote for it on October 19th.
00:18:17.540Because your kids are not going to be benefited from a losing referendum that then benefits the NDP in the next election.
00:18:25.140Now, we have a year to recover, and I hope people are able to kind of ingest that fact that this is hurting the UCP turnout.
00:18:34.160Calgary Shaw is not going to be an anomaly if this thing keeps being in the headlines the next year.
00:18:40.080Now, I don't think it's going to be, but take that in.
00:18:43.760You go into a referendum when you know you can win it.
00:18:46.480You don't go into a referendum just because you can get the signatures.0.96
00:18:49.060That's silly. That's foolish, in fact.0.99
00:18:51.240And now, again, I'm not blaming people like Keith Wilson and Corey Morgan.0.85
00:18:54.440In fact, they came in later to try and professionalize the movement because they jumped too fast with people like Jeff Rath, who's now running around trying to claim, oh, yeah, Daniel Smith and Matthew Alpine, one of her comms people, oh, they offered me $4 million to stop doing what I'm doing.
00:19:15.360I do not believe anything he says because everything he says always projects self.0.97
00:19:20.880guys don't follow people who exude pride if someone exudes pride they are a bad leader
00:19:28.800follow people who are humble to give a bit of a biblical lesson guys the meek shall inherit the
00:19:34.320earth and that's not exactly about politics but it's a good lesson to take home when jeff rath
00:19:39.960won't stop talking about himself it's not because he's actually important it's because he wants to
00:19:45.120be important and he in fact thinks he's more important than the whole independence movement
00:19:48.700out there, yet some people keep defending the guy while he buries the actual support of that
00:19:53.660movement. He has not done a single day door knocking in Calgary to try and push the movement
00:19:58.100because he doesn't care. He's making money off of it. But in Calgary right now, the UCP are actually
00:20:03.360doing quite well. Obviously not as good as province-wide, but the UCP in Calgary are sitting
00:20:10.160at 49% of the vote. The NDP are currently at 41% of the vote. That is an eight-point gap,
00:20:21.840if you can do the math there. That is devastating for the NDP if that actually ends up materializing
00:20:27.940in Calgary. The progressive Tories, as you would expect, do better. They end up hitting around 8%
00:20:33.620of the vote here and other in the city of calgary i believe that somewhere probably like just one
00:20:41.800percent or two percent at this point put out one percent so i don't have to do the math but
00:20:45.920insignificant maybe some alberta liberals or people vote alberta liberal in the general being
00:20:52.000confused between the difference between federal liberals and provincial liberals but an eight
00:20:57.180percent gap is significant because last provincial election, I believe the votes in Calgary were like
00:21:04.22046 to 45 percent between the two parties, something like that. It was very close in Calgary, but the
00:21:11.520NDP had the edge. If this happens, if the UCP wins Calgary by an eight percent margin across all the
00:21:21.120the popular vote in the city, 8% margin. And now this is going to seem very narcissistic on my
00:21:27.200part. Calgary Curry is absolutely going to be won back, even though the NDP won it last election by
00:21:32.96013 points. The drug deaths in the city of Calgary are down 60%. It's a big win for the UCP. The
00:21:39.960crime is generally down, employment is up, and in fact, housing costs are actually going down,
00:21:45.940rent costs are going down. There's a lot of reasons for people to be optimistic and happy
00:21:50.680with the UCP government. The only way this does not materialize is division within the UCP over
00:21:57.060nothing. And you're going to have all these people again saying, well, we need to keep pushing the
00:22:01.940movement even after it loses because our kids, your kids don't want the NDP winning. Your kids
00:22:08.220don't want to be out of a job and hearing stories around the campfire around how one day you were
00:22:12.640supporting them. You had ended up putting up some signs for a movement that had 25% support and then
00:22:18.000you didn't show up for the ucp to stop the ndp i don't know how that helps anybody again the
00:22:23.660movement shouldn't have jumped before it had enough support and frankly i just don't think
00:22:27.760it's going to have enough support ever and people point to well there's too many people in this
00:22:32.100province who didn't grow up in this province and they don't get it man guys rural ranchers don't
00:22:37.300want this do you think they want the jurisdiction to change when they're trying to basically ship
00:22:41.880ship their cattle to different parts of the country that farmers want to have to navigate
00:22:46.760how to basically navigate new jurisdictions and borders with their crops. They don't want to do
00:22:53.260it. And so I find too many people are in the camp of thinking that they're speaking on behalf
00:22:59.260of other conservatives or other Albertans when it's just not there. There's just not the reason
00:23:04.460to do it right now. Figure out how to argue in favor of the pension first. Figure out how to
00:23:09.060argue in favor of fully enveloping the police into the Alberta police force. Do all that stuff
00:23:13.840first. But things devolving into Jeff Rath claiming he was bribed $4 million to stop doing
00:23:19.680what he's doing when it's not effective at all is insane. You also know someone's an idiot when1.00
00:23:24.660they come up with a number that much to pretend someone bribed them. Oh, yeah, they gave me $81.00
00:23:29.340grillion to stop and I didn't do it. No, they didn't. You're lying. Do you think anyone in
00:23:34.900Alberta politics has ever been paid that much money ever? Legitimately or illegitimately.
00:23:41.620I doubt it. That's just not how politics in Canada works. That's, like, an amount of money that, like, an African dictator would pay to their opposition leader to, like, leave the country. That is not the amount of money that you would get to stop your movement that's kind of on ice at the moment and is just not gaining popularity.
00:24:01.760In fact, the independence movement's popularity is going down over time because it's too insular, all the messaging is internal, and that's a problem when all you're doing is messaging to people who already support you.
00:24:15.100By the way, the Edmonton numbers in this poll were not that bad either.
00:24:19.120Edmonton was 52 to 38, which would, I believe, be an improvement for the Conservatives, and it may even open up a couple of ridings in that city like Beverly Clairview.
00:24:29.260When it comes to small cities and bedroom communities, the conservatives are at 58 to 33. Rurals are 67 to 24. It is looking very good. And so many of the things that pro-independence people say that they want, which is more sovereignty, is already being achieved by the UCP. Maybe not fast enough? Then put your efforts into making it faster.
00:24:50.120Don't then say, hey, let's jump to the bottom of the stairs and hope we don't break our legs by trying to go for full independence when so many things haven't even been figured out yet.
00:24:57.740I'm not even a supporter of the movement, and I'm trying to give the movement better advice than it is currently taking from other people.
00:25:04.100Corey Morgan, again, I don't agree with him on independence, but he is a very clear-eyed thinker when it comes to this particular issue.
00:25:12.240But anyways, and he even is saying, guys, if you lose the referendum, do not then start independence parties.
00:25:18.580do not then try and run a coup against Danielle Smith. You failed. The movement's leaders failed.
00:25:25.460It's not Danielle Smith's fault for not coming up the rear and helping you win, or else you don't
00:25:30.040believe in the concept of democracy. Apparently, everyone's supposed to throw in with you and try1.00
00:25:34.600and get you elected and try and get your movement across the finish line. Not how it works. If you
00:25:39.020fail to convince people, that's just how the cookie crumbles there. Anyways, with all that being said,
00:25:45.520Thank you guys for watching. I want to emphasize too, if this ends up happening in the city of Calgary, the UCP ends up getting like over 50-55% or 55% of the seats or bringing the NDP down to like just 22 seats out of the total of like 84 or whatever it is.
00:26:04.960Some redistricting is definitely going to help the NDP screaming about how it's gerrymandering. It's not. It is simply adding seats to better represent the population.
00:26:15.220The NDP are, in fact, the only ones who can win the election without winning the popular vote.
00:26:19.900And they're complaining that the city of Calgary is not going to remain in this kind of weird kind of boundary mix where it allows them to win a general election while losing the popular vote by like nine points.
00:26:32.800That is not gerrymandering at all.0.90
00:26:35.060It's foolish, and I'm really tired of all the ankle biters yelling at the UCP for things that they did not do wrong.
00:26:41.980It's not just because I'm running for a Calgary Curry nomination.0.99
00:26:44.220in this right in this in exact video you just watched if anyone's mad at me for saying for
00:26:49.540dissing the independence movement a bit i've criticized the ucp saying we need better policies
00:26:55.500to run on because i go to the doors and people don't know why they're supposed to vote for the
00:26:59.420conservatives because you know you can do a great job in government but unless people know
00:27:04.240why they need to turn out and vote why they need to turn out and vote and protect that government
00:27:08.400they're not going to do it i am very balanced i am very fair when i keep talking to
00:27:14.140independence people who are like, I wouldn't support you in Calgary Curry because you're not
00:27:17.680pro-independence. It's like, it's an urban riding. It's an urban riding. What are you talking about?
00:27:24.620This would be like if the NDP was running in a rural riding or like in a sort of semi-small
00:27:29.840town rural riding that they could win. And like some of their people are saying, I'm not voting
00:27:33.680for anyone who's not an outright communist. It's like, it's a rural riding. Not that we should be
00:27:38.700electing any communists. I'm just saying that this would be like an NDP world. Their people wouldn't
00:27:43.680support them because they're not like hyper far left. I'm a pretty right-wing dude. If I'm somehow
00:27:52.100not Albertan enough, that's a problem. That's a problem not with me, but with the people
00:27:57.540evaluating what Alberta is. I export Alberta values all over the country every single day.
00:28:04.020If I'm not somebody that you can work with, that's a problem on you at this point. If it's becoming
00:28:09.960that I haven't helped the movement get across the finish line. It's not my fault. The movement is not
00:28:15.320popular. The movement does not make good arguments, and they even keep saying no one else has good
00:28:20.520arguments against us because you don't listen. It's because you don't listen. The economic value
00:28:25.160of separating might be somewhat there. It's worth burning a massive bridge to get it. I have a lot
00:28:31.800in common with people in Kitchener. I have a lot in common with people in Saskatchewan and Manitoba
00:28:36.040and New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, even some people in Quebec. It's really hard to make an
00:28:41.560argument that you should make a giant jurisdictional change over equalization,0.93
00:28:45.520which is stupid, and I want to heavily reform how equalization works, if not scrap the entire0.95
00:28:52.180system. Yes, spending is not always equal across the country from the federal government,0.99
00:28:56.820but equalization does suck. Let's focus on that piece rather than making the biggest possible
00:29:02.500move to fix what is not that big of a problem it's a problem it's definitely sizable but it's
00:29:08.820not let's leave the country big anyways so with all that being said thank you guys for watching
00:29:15.440this video hopefully I don't come off as too harsh here but I'm trying to make sure a province
00:29:20.960doesn't go socialist so I am going to be a little bit more heated about stuff like that these days
00:29:27.000but with all that being said thank you guys for watching and I'll see you guys all next