In this episode of TNT Election Stream, we discuss the results of the first count of the vote counting, and give our predictions on who's going to come out on top. We also have a special guest on the show to talk about the Bluefinland campaign.
00:10:56.000Um, Hamilton from, for Pierre from APM.
00:11:01.540Yeah, I think Hamilton actually does have the capacity in this election to surprise and maybe give a couple of seats to, to the conservatives.
00:11:10.820Jake says, do you think PPC can get a seat?
00:11:13.080No, I actually think that they are going to lose seats.
00:11:42.120And hopefully there's enough people out there who aren't just going to vote because maybe it will make Donald Trump upset if I vote liberal.
00:11:48.300The good thing is on Google Trends this morning, I saw that there's tons of people searching the conservative party.
00:11:53.340So hopefully late-breaking voters on election day are heavily leaning towards the conservatives in case things were leaning the other way.
00:16:46.780But I do not think the conservatives ran a great campaign.
00:16:50.900I think the NDP nuked itself, which is our big problem.
00:16:56.120And, you know, the liberals just have that perfect two-month Mark Carney facade that will crumble very soon, but I'm not sure if it's crumbled yet.
00:17:05.240And there's a lot of – you know, I just watch CBC, CTV people, and they might just go red.
00:17:13.900I wouldn't be shocked if the conservatives win.
00:17:18.140Like, I wouldn't – I wouldn't, you know, it wouldn't flabbergast me.
00:17:44.740Whenever the liberals need the polling to look a certain way, suddenly it jumps up.
00:17:48.700When they need Justin Trudeau, suddenly ECOS gives the biggest lead ever to the conservatives, even though he's usually the one who only has them at, like, plus 12 when everyone had plus 20.
00:17:57.060Yeah, and like Frank Graves openly said, he was here to tank the conservatives, shot the election, and he did pull a PSYOP.
00:18:03.260And then, like, this is what I was trying to tell the conservatives is people vote a lot on image.
00:18:09.580And one of the biggest mistakes the liberals made is they were talking about Pierre Polyev being prime minister in the Trudeau times.
00:18:15.360And when you incept the idea of prime minister Polyev or prime minister anyone, it makes them more palatable.
00:18:21.240The biggest mistake the conservatives then did is when they switched to Carney.
00:18:25.100They started talking about, oh, what a future Carney government would look like and all that stuff.
00:18:31.380And it's like, don't incept the idea of prime minister Carney.
00:18:34.400Like, I was telling them, the only question you should ask of Mark Carney in this election campaign is,
00:18:39.260Mr. Carney, when you lose the election, will you move to Canada?
00:18:43.760That's the only thing they should have said to him.
00:19:58.160Once you're in the 80 pole range, 50 pole range, now we're probably getting a good sampling of what people think around the provinces.
00:20:08.040But the formula I've heard is that conservatives got eight seats in Atlantic Canada in 2021.
00:20:14.880I don't think they've gained any new seats because obviously there's guaranteed a certain amount of seats, but their populations have pretty much stayed the same.
00:20:22.040If the conservatives can hold eight or actually gain one or two, conservatives are in business to win a minority.
00:20:27.700If they lose one, it gets a little bit more narrow and it might tell us that in other areas, it's a bit like, it's a bit, it's going to be tight.
00:20:36.120But I think in this election, it's going to be super, super all over the place.
00:20:41.240Because I think it's just that the conservative base is just different now.
00:21:05.860You're going to be my assistant to make sure that I'm not reading these wrong.
00:21:09.020Is this 11 to 3 liberals lead what you expect?
00:21:11.760Can you analyze where we are at so far?
00:21:13.580Um, so yeah, basically I don't really know where we're at right now because obviously a lot of the ridings in the Maritimes automatically go liberal.
00:21:21.800Some of the ones that are currently going liberal are into one or two polls and those ones usually go very conservative.
00:21:28.960I know someone on the ground in Nova Scotia, Chris from the Great Canadian Bagel Polling Channel.
00:21:33.580And he says, whenever people fear monger that the conservatives are going to lose Rick Perkins riding, it's like he knows that Rick Perkins has literally thousands and thousands of signs on people's lawns and out there.
00:22:02.180And I think that that's why if we actually do a little bit better in Nova Scotia, or not Nova Scotia, but in general, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, the Maritimes, that probably shows you that we're not actually doing as bad with older voters as people think.
00:22:45.060I think Pierre's mistake, like every conservative leader, well, like Andrew Shearer, Aaron O'Toole was like born to be the leader of the conservative party in a bad way.
00:22:53.760But he let the conservative party throw him off what he was good at.
00:23:00.280Pierre Polyev is not like Trump at all.
00:23:12.820Pierre is excellent at in the 10 minute range.
00:23:16.500He is excellent at explaining an issue, explaining why it's a problem for Canadians, how we got there, and a coherent solution to get us out of that.
00:24:44.540If he gets obliterated in this election, right, like, and, like, the seat count is terrible and he can barely grow the seat count, I don't think he will survive.
00:24:53.160And it also depends, like, will we have, will it need to be a four-year in opposition or is it a minority, right?
00:26:00.000Tanike wanted to double down on all the things that the base thinks was failing.
00:26:05.600And this is sort of the problem with the Conservative Party is they have a fear of their base.
00:26:09.840They have a fear that if they lean too much into their base, the media will criticize them, which I say the media will criticize you, what you do anyway.
00:26:18.380You've got to, like, energize your base and grow it.
00:26:56.160In fact, I have some really good data on screen right now where we're doing very well in central Newfoundland, which was apparently potentially going to lose.
00:27:02.540And now we're winning it by, like, over 60% of the moment.
00:27:06.360I think people wouldn't blame Polyev for, frankly, just world politics going insane.
00:27:12.680Yeah, I mean, listen, I have my criticism of Polyev, but Polyev is so much better than the potential that could come out of an ex-conservative leader.
00:27:20.520Like, you could get Aaron O'Toole again.
00:27:21.740So be careful what you wish for if you just want, like, the perfect guy you're chasing.
00:27:29.380And I think if Polyev leaned more into his actual strengths, I think they would have done better.
00:27:37.720And I think they let the Liberals gain narrative dominance by – they stopped their campaign for a few months around the liberal leadership race.
00:30:26.380So I'm like, that's probably not voting for the home team.
00:30:29.100But other than that, you know, you couldn't really tell.
00:30:31.420I had a guy call me who was in one of the poll stations earlier today.
00:30:36.700And he said a woman walked in, you know, some piercings, tattoos, like kind of blue colorful hair, walks in, votes, you know, kind of moving or whatever.
00:30:56.600And I actually saw tons of young couples, and when I say young couples, I mean probably 28, 29 couples walking in and out of the polling station today.
00:31:05.180And it's super sleepy in the middle of the day.
00:32:14.140And again, when you go to things like Chinese-Canadian polling in British Columbia, it's very difficult to get East Asian people to take a poll, South Asian even more so, because it's just not part of the culture.
00:32:23.580Even though actually South Asian people and Persians and Arabs, they're actually more likely, those Canadians are more likely to put a sign on their lawn.
00:32:30.620If they're voting, they're putting down a sign.
00:32:32.560Chinese voters will usually not put down a sign, and they don't really want to take phone calls.
00:32:36.520But Indo-Canadians also don't take phone calls about polling.
00:32:40.460And they, though, when you actually take the effort to get a big Chinese sample, it's literally reversed.
00:32:49.420The Liberals won Chinese-Canadians by like 13 points in 2021.
00:32:52.760Conservatives currently winning them by about 9 to 11 points.
00:33:06.920Barbara Ball, in the southwest of her riding, is a very heavy Chinese area that went very red last election in the Pian.
00:33:13.460They told me, because I can reveal this now because it doesn't matter, they said it's blue because she's a 20-year veteran of the police force.
00:33:21.320Someone in the Chinese community would see her come into the neighborhood, and on WhatsApp or WeChat, they would mention it,
00:33:26.980and people would flood out of their houses to ask her crime and criminal justice questions.
00:33:32.080Like, Asian-Canadians, like, listen, they don't like, they like Canada.
00:33:37.940They don't like the CCP, and they hate fentanyl.
00:33:40.720Like, you can win them by, like, no more.
00:33:44.060It's like, can we, putting criminals in jail is totally okay with the, the Asian community loves when, like, violent criminals don't kill them.
00:33:52.500They love not getting beaten up by fentanyl lunatics.
00:33:56.040And I was just in B.C. where, like, it's tragic because, like, B.C. has a historic Chinatown, but Chinatown is right near fentanyl zombie town.
00:34:15.540All these Chinese people, like Filipinos, East Asians, Southeast Asians, who are some of the most conscientious people you will ever meet in your life, and they have to live around this crap.
00:34:24.500Like, oh my goodness, put these people, put all the, as Frank Vaughn says, the fent zombies in a van, and drop them off in the rich white neighborhoods who keep voting NDP.
00:34:56.220It's kind of like Saskatchewan, where there are writings that the other party can never win, and then there is a limited amount of writings that decides who's going to be in government.
00:35:04.260But thank you for that $13.99 super chat.
00:35:09.700I mean, we could be in for a great night.
00:35:29.820And there's a lot that can happen that would make me very happy.
00:35:36.180And, like, again, the other thing I'll say is, like, a minority government either way I think is a really good result for the conservative party.
00:36:52.560That means what we are into for a very good night if we end up seeing the conservatives make gains in the Maritimes.
00:37:01.400I think—who are you talking about, Jagmeet Singh, when I last cut you off?
00:37:07.220No, I mean—oh, yeah, I was talking about, yeah, we could—like, we could—my thing is, if there's a minority government, I actually think that's going to be fine.
00:37:14.480Even if it's a liberal minority, it's one budget, and then we'll go to an election where the Carney facade will wear off.
00:37:21.560And as I said, Carney only really had a shot if he called a snap election.
00:37:25.020If Carney actually sits down for a couple weeks and people hear what he starts to say and see what Carney's views are in reality, I think the conservatives will destroy them.
00:38:29.560They should really keep it all closed until the last person is voted or you have that 2021 Arizona effect where Fox News calls Arizona for Joe Biden while there's literally a people in the other time zone of the state still voting.
00:59:33.420If the conservatives gain, lose some seats to the Bloc, it means that they're not going to the liberals, at least in my opinion.
00:59:39.820And I think that most of the conservative ridings in Canada actually tend to be pretty stable.
00:59:45.740The Fixer says, Wyatt, are you going to jump into someone else's stream?
00:59:48.720Clydes, I may jump onto the Juno news stream at some point, in which case I'm going to have probably Daniel take over for me for like 15 minutes,
00:59:59.300and then I will come back when all that is over.
01:00:02.540So if you see me go, it's not because Daniel has murdered me and usurped me on the channel.
01:00:45.700I'm going to answer your question in a way I think that you may be answering it, even if not, at least it's interesting.
01:00:50.260I think if the Conservatives missed on older voters at all, it's because they should have, while Carney was running for the leadership, and even when Justin Trudeau was still around.
01:01:01.180The Liberals should have said, these guys, Trudeau, Carney, Freeland, Gould, all of them have made Canada so weak, Donald Trump thinks he can say this stuff.
01:01:12.840The Liberals can posture all they want now, but they're the people who let Donald Trump do this, and we're going to take it back from them and make sure that we actually strengthen our country so that we're respected.
01:01:23.140That's how I think they should have played it, and I think they waited a bit long.
01:01:27.080Sometimes parties focus group things too long, and it annoys me.
01:03:28.940That is a perfectly fine result for the conservatives.
01:03:31.860Let's look at what the 2021 results looks like overall, because I think this is going to be very instructive for how we digest this information coming in.
01:03:46.280So in 2021, obviously, the conservatives did pretty well in New Brunswick.
01:03:51.200But it looks like, from what I'm seeing, conservatives, by winning Bluefinland, by winning those three Newfoundland seats, they can afford to lose a seat in New Brunswick or Nova Scotia.
01:04:03.780But it even looks like they may be able to pick one up in Nova Scotia.
01:04:08.800So overall, things look like we are going to be able to offset any losses in the Maritimes, if not pickup seats.
01:04:16.360And right now, even the popular vote margin is currently quite favorable towards the conservatives, because look at this.
01:04:23.88050% for the liberals, 43.1 for the conservatives.
01:04:28.460We had seen polls up to this point, I am not kidding, where narrative research or other different polling firms had said, oh, liberals are leading by 20 points.
01:04:42.900And if the liberals aren't leading by 20 in the Maritimes, they're only leading by 7, and there's still a lot of votes to count, they ain't leading by 10 in Ontario, unless we are just in the wacko election where nothing makes sense.
01:04:57.000So, yeah, I think this is all quite decent so far.
01:05:01.080So, Hama Ishvak says, why are polls down?
01:05:06.760I'm wondering, talking about, like, for the conservatives, if the conservatives are down, it's just because we're counting the Maritimes.
01:05:13.980Conservatives are never really going to be leading in the Maritimes.
01:05:30.340If you see Ottawa start going blue, let's get that one.
01:05:35.640By the way, guys, if you live in Ontario, please sign up and vote for the new blue party provincially.
01:05:40.700Doug Ford sucks, and he was backing the liberals basically this entire election.
01:05:44.780So, go and vote for the new blue party in the next provincial election because, man, the PCs are terrible.
01:05:49.760But to go back to a Stakona question, if you see the ridings in Ottawa, which are usually safe red ridings, if they start going blue, you will see it go in the exact order of first Greg Kung.
01:06:06.540Greg Kung has 2,900 signed requests in that riding.
01:06:27.800They only got 1.6% of the vote this last election, but it was a snap election where it was hard for them to get candidates.
01:06:33.200And they even tried to get as many as they could.
01:06:34.860A lot of their own people didn't believe them that there was going to be a snap election because who's going to call a snap election in the middle of a polar vortex?
01:06:42.600But they managed to maintain most of their vote in the previous election, and I even flew out there on my own expense to help them.
01:06:48.560So, in Ottawa, first riding, if it's going to flip blue, it's going to go Greg Kuhn first.
01:06:53.620Then it's going to go Ryan Telford and Ottawa West Nepean.
01:06:56.920In theory, this is a more red riding than Nepean where Barbara Ball is facing off against Mark Carney.
01:07:03.140But the thing with Ryan Telford's riding is there is a higher Jewish population who absolutely rightfully hates the liberals right now.
01:07:12.600Obviously, some Jewish people are still voting liberal, but Orthodox and conservative Jewish people are doing that.
01:07:18.380Oh, by the way, everyone say hi to Miss Brittany who is driving, hopefully driving people to the polls because whoever she's driving is going to get the win.
01:07:29.040But, yeah, Brittany has been doing a fantastic job going absolutely everywhere.
01:07:35.200Well, what's happening, Brittany, is Bluefinland is happening.
01:07:39.340We are currently winning three seats in Newfoundland when many people were saying the conservatives were going to be lucky if they just held on to central Newfoundland.
01:07:47.760We are winning that one by a large margin.
01:07:49.580And we are actually extending the lead right now in Terranova and Long Range Mountain.
01:18:05.960If you want to bet on Polymarket, you can.
01:18:07.780If you feel like it's a 100% certainty, the Conservatives are winning.
01:18:11.580I like Daniel Boardman's theory that actually maybe the Chinese government or someone like that is going to put money onto Kearney on Polymarket
01:19:13.540I find the analysis from the more negative perspective totally okay.
01:19:20.260I'd go into more negative analysis, too, depending on what comments are made.
01:19:24.480Because, again, we always want to be able to criticize our own side, or we quickly kind of turn into hacks.
01:19:30.460If we only ever say good stuff, and whenever bad stuff happens, we explain it away.
01:19:35.020It's like every once in a while, I would have people saying, Wyatt, don't bring up your nomination in Calgary, Signal Hill, and being unfairly disqualified.
01:22:35.940I mean, if you vote conservative, that's fine.
01:22:37.880Look at all the other people who are voting conservative.
01:22:39.840That's what all this promotional stuff does, is it makes people more likely to follow through on something that they were already leaning towards.
01:22:46.640Epic Encore for $10 says, I came from Brazil and lived through these failed liberal policies.
01:23:15.720In fact, the more regulation and legislation you have, the worse things are going to be.
01:23:20.860You might have noticed that Carney and the liberals picked up one seat on the counter.
01:23:24.620It's just because they've counted very few votes along that New Brunswick border, where I believe the Bloc Quebecois historically usually win that area.
01:23:35.820For Polly from Wyoming, I'm so thankful for your channel.
01:23:38.400It's my go-to for info on neighbors up north.
01:23:41.080Oh, so you're an actual American who's just frankly interested in Canadian politics.
01:23:45.840I guess that's kind of like me watching not just American politics, because I think everyone's interested in American politics no matter where you're from.
01:23:53.040But I kind of like to follow UK politics a little bit.
01:26:31.160Is this another riding in the Maritimes?
01:26:35.180If it is, if you're talking about a riding in the Maritimes, if you were blue before, you're probably still blue now.
01:26:42.400So, Sally Paranjab, 999, says, what's happening with Abbotsford?
01:26:49.760Well, Abbotsford is a very interesting riding in this election, and we will be getting to that one later as the counting starts.
01:26:56.680And we will be following those results very closely, specifically the riding of Abbotsford-South Langley,
01:27:03.360where Mike Deong, the former BC Liberal and United MLA, remember the BC Liberals used to be the kind of big tent party.
01:27:10.860He ran for the Conservative nomination and was kicked out.
01:27:15.260And then this guy, Sukhman Gill, who is a 24-year-old basically co-blueberry farmer with his dad, became the candidate in a circumstance, I would say, is less than up and up.
01:27:26.280And Mike Deong decided, with all of his clout and his name recognition, to run as an independent.
01:27:30.920And based off of the internal polls he's been releasing, maybe it's all made up and it's all vaporware, but I don't think he would really do that and embarrass herself if he knew you were down.
01:27:39.200It's actually showing that Mike Deong, as the independent in that riding, might beat Sukhman Gill,
01:27:44.040which is kind of a repudiation of the party for choosing candidates in the way they have in certain ridings.
01:27:53.540I'll text you how much it's alleged within the inner circles that his dad has spent on the surrounding ridings to buy his seat.
01:28:01.780Well, I am not expecting, I'm not expecting less than $100,000.
01:28:08.480Yeah, it's not less than that, but this is how much apparently was spent to get him into the party in total.
01:28:24.520I think it's, I think you have to like look at the up-to-date stuff, not just the overall, but right now it says 26 to 74 for me, but I think I need to look at the instant one.
01:28:36.400I'm not sure if I can actually do that, but I'll just leave that for now.
01:28:39.560I don't care too much about the Pauly Market, but OldManFor$50 says, thank you very much for that.
01:28:45.300I appreciate, appreciate your coverage, why it's my turn to show the better YouTubers some support, go blue.
01:28:50.900Well, thank you for that and thank you for all the support.
01:28:53.440By the way, for anyone supporting the channel right now, we actually just got into a really good place in the lawsuit that I haven't mentioned in a while.
01:29:00.500The guy who was suing me, and I'm free and safe to mention this in the middle of the video, his entire legal team quit on him.
01:29:08.220And so we're, you know, we're filing whatever, we're just going to keep proceeding like, yeah, we're just going to keep proceeding because I don't care about that.
01:29:15.160I don't care that you potentially ticked off all your lawyers and they don't want to work for you anymore.
01:30:12.220And it kind of gives you a taste for, really, where is the national mood at?
01:30:19.140If this rioting or this county went from plus 7 Liberal and it's now plus 7 Conservative, you're probably not going to have that be a fairly localized thing.
01:32:16.220At the same time, it's not because they have, oftentimes people in side parties do not have a better inside track on what's going on than anyone else.
01:32:24.180Oftentimes, they are also freaking out about polls that, if they just visited some of their ridings, they're like, this is actually going great.
01:32:30.140And what I've heard throughout the campaign that's going very well, outside of maybe some messaging failures I would have mentioned, or I think missed opportunities here and there.
01:32:38.020The thing that's been good is ground game.
01:32:40.540In most of the ridings, I've heard the ground game is fantastic.
01:32:43.220I was saying this, I'm going to run through it very quickly here.
01:32:45.880I was in Ottawa not long ago, and, like, legitimately, if it goes blue, we're going to see probably Panada go blue first with Greg,
01:32:53.480and then we're going to see Ottawa-West Nepean go blue with Ryan Telford, and then Nepean.
01:32:58.320Because Kari has been poaching volunteers from those two ridings, and many people are sick of the incumbents.
01:33:03.700Yeah, that's, I mean, this might be the story of that, and I thought that would be the kind of story that hurt the conservatives,
01:33:10.900sort of the dropping people into rioting and the poaching and all that.
01:33:14.800But if it comes back to hurt the liberals, hey, I'd rather have the cautionary tale about respecting grassroots politics
01:33:25.780be at the expense of the Liberal Party and Mark Carney than at the conservatives.
01:33:29.060So, looks like I can still have that rant tomorrow, but if I get to rant and yell at Mark Carney tomorrow for being an idiot, I'll take it.
01:33:38.940Red Wine here says, downtown Toronto last week I saw more lineups for the food bank than signs.
01:33:43.980And that, your point, he's pointing to something I think is actually really important here.
01:33:48.820And that's where I think that people, if they're not just, and the thing is, it looks like actually older voters are actually more conservative than the polls are showing.
01:33:57.420But unless you're sat at home just watching legacy media all day, you don't need to really leave the house unless you're, you know, just getting groceries.
01:34:04.660You can live in a world where nothing's wrong.
01:34:06.780But most people, especially middle-aged people and younger people going to work every day, you eventually see how bad things are.
01:34:14.300Like, and I'm not trying to, I don't want to bring this up rudely, but with that attack or ramming that happened at the Lapu Festival in Vancouver, it wasn't a terrorist.
01:34:24.860It seems like it was like a guy who's extremely mentally unwell.
01:34:28.140Just someone who should have been in jail or an asylum, like very clearly, like.
01:34:32.160Someone who probably should have had their driver's license taken away, if it's somebody who's seeing aliens, not to be too, you know, rude about it, but like, in terms of like, people died, but not to be rude about it.
01:34:42.460But like, if someone's insane, you should probably be taking away the driver's license if you don't trust them with a motor vehicle.
01:34:47.680But I'm not, again, I'm not trying to exploit this, but a lot of people probably saw that and thought, my goodness, everything sucks.
01:34:54.320I mean, really, this is just becoming a city of chaos, and the government's letting it happen.
01:34:59.280And even though there's the municipal government and the provincial government who have probably even more say over this stuff happening, the federal government isn't stepping in and saying, hey, no, you guys can't have safe supply drugs everywhere.
01:35:22.600And I like how the people in the chat think I'm drunk already, which is a good sign for the conservative party, because I literally just opened my first beer to celebrate.
01:35:30.060And you can tell it's, I guess I'm looking happy.
01:35:32.220It's happy, Daniel, because I thought this would be a disaster of a night.
01:35:35.340So just naturally exuding so much joy.
01:36:52.440These are guys in their 20s, 30s, and 40s deciding to do this.
01:36:55.660Yeah, I mean, yeah, when it's like a professional protester at 20 years old with the purple – you go to that.
01:37:03.180But, yeah, when it's working – when working-class employed people come out and coordinate it, yeah, that's a completely different game then.
01:37:11.560I know they don't want the comparison, but – because there's still polls open, and maybe the media's going to clip this.
01:37:16.560But, dear Polly, if you were to compare him to Donald Trump in any way, he has a unique way of getting working-class men out to vote.
01:37:22.740And that's probably just saying anyone who has a little bit more of a populist style tends to get working-class men out, and that is the formula for winning.
01:37:30.860I think it was always overstated how much older voters didn't like pure Pollyov and how much women didn't like Pollyov,
01:37:37.180because there's always been the shy conservative – there's always been a shy conservative effect in the polls where it's always considered the American choice.
01:37:45.780So are you really going to tell a pollster you're voting for the conservative party?
01:37:49.240Even though pollsters have privacy regulations they follow, they cannot leak who you told them that you're voting for, whether it's online or on the phone.
01:37:56.360A lot of people don't know that, and they don't want to say anything.
01:38:31.820And the reasons why he's popular is because if you listen to Pierre break down an issue – like, those videos he would do on, like, you know, this is why Canada loves Wilfrid Laurier.
01:38:44.240And just talking about things like that, that was his real strength.
01:38:47.480And I think he kind of went away from that for a little bit and started with, like, you know, just Axe Tax and Carbon Tax Carney and Carbon Tax Christia.
01:38:55.500And then Mark Carney pulled the whole Carbon Tax thing, and that caused a bit of a problem with Conservative HQ.
01:39:02.380But, you know, Aliyev is really good in that medium 5-10 minute range where he can really reach people and explain on issues.
01:39:11.360And, you know, I just hope that's enough to carry him here tonight.
01:39:15.320But, like, I – it's – listen, I do believe a lot of people can be fooled by the,
01:42:08.060Here is the secret of Quebec, is that Quebec is kind of actually a little bit like, you know, Saskatchewan or something like that.
01:42:17.860In order for the liberals to jump from the island of Montreal to winning seats out there – I've been comparing this election in a few videos to, if you like World War II analogies, Operation Market Garden.
01:42:28.840The conservatives need to go and take a bunch of bridges, and they need to get to Arnhem in, like, five days or whatever.
01:42:34.440And the thing is, the liberals also need to break out of Montreal if they want to raise up the – they want to – you know, they've got to break out of the Coraline pocket, I guess.
01:42:43.320We're comparing liberals to Nazis here unintentionally.
01:42:46.280I'm just using World War II analogies.
01:42:47.860They had to break out of this pocket, or they're not going to be able to run up the score.
01:42:51.000And right now, the bloc at 30%, 29%, probably holding that donut around Montreal where the liberals can't do well.
01:42:57.900Because the liberal gains in Quebec, much like liberal gains elsewhere, are in the metropolitan areas they were already popular or places they were never going to win.
01:43:07.880Yeah, because it's interesting with Quebec because does, like, the threat of annexation, like, make them more Canadian nationalists or French nationalists to protect the French or the Canada?
01:43:20.020Like, we've never seen anything like this, this type of election, so.
01:43:25.460Someone says, is that dark-haired stud Italian?
01:43:59.140Because there's a lot of very remote parts of the riding where counting is going to be a bit slower.
01:44:04.140What I've heard is that Rick Perkins, the current incumbent there, because suburbs around his area have been moving a little more liberal, he was actually going into what somebody told me is, like, a third-tier rural area in terms of you're on the main drag, then you go dirt road, then you go dirt road again, you go to a small town, and then you take another dirt road even further outside of that small town.
01:44:25.620And they've been going to those places where usually turnout's like 10% because nobody cares, and that they've been getting really good support out there from people shocked that they even came up to try and encourage people to get out there.
01:44:36.580But the good thing, though, on this map, guys, is currently Central Nova Scotia, held by the worst immigration minister we've ever had in Canada, Mr. Sean Frazier, and housing minister, is currently being led by Bryce Jenkins by 104 votes, which is higher than the South Shore Liberal lead, so that's great.
01:44:56.600And Miramichi Grand Lake is currently still with a 493 vote lead for the Liberals, or the Conservatives, with less than half the polls left to count, all going quite well.
01:45:10.480Yeah, Matthew Kula says, PPC splitting South Shore St. Margaret's?
01:45:14.900Yeah, kind of. At the end of the day, I think the sort of people voting PPC still, not to be rude, it's people who think they're too good to vote for a mainstream party.
01:45:23.580If there wasn't a PPC candidate, many of those people probably would not be voting.
01:45:28.440But that is the thing that drives me up a lot.
01:45:30.720When I see people, oh, sorry, someone, Mr. Malcolm is correcting me a bit, Miramichi, emphasize the last syllable, say it with me, Daniel, Miramichi.
01:46:29.780But yeah, they're going to come in a little slower for the Conservatives because these are considered unpredicted wins for the Conservatives.
01:46:36.300So they're probably going to, their decision desks are probably going to hold up on it a bit more.
01:46:41.980Reinhardt for $13.99 said, listening while running polls with my wife in Langley, she got a call and illegally hung from a worker that she said was have to win.
01:47:53.660And right now, if I can check in on things, we are currently 22 to 10 still, which means the Conservatives are overperforming their last election by two in a region where even when people were talking about a Conservative minority, it was basically, can you make up for the losses you're going to suffer in the Maritimes?
01:54:19.680But it would be if they can actually expand their lead in Essex, I believe that's a good thing.
01:54:23.740Since they did not actually have that great of a showing last time.
01:54:31.680I always hate when the writing is named something like Essex and you look it up and it's like telling you somewhere in England.
01:54:36.600And yeah, in 2021, conservatives won at 41% of the vote to 31% for the new Democrats.
01:54:44.780And the liberals only got 13% of the vote.
01:54:47.320I wonder if that's going to advantage them heavily there with a lot of people not used to voting liberal at all.
01:54:54.540So, yeah, right now I'm looking at this map.
01:55:01.580And other than this one up north, which is only one poll, this is like pretty typical looking for what Quebec's going to start looking like for probably the rest of the night.
01:55:17.360I'm going to go check in with the popular vote.
01:55:21.520Maybe I'll just display that at the top here for a second.
01:55:29.420I mean, the other thing to go with, it's a very interesting election because any other election where the conservatives get around 40% of the vote, that's a super majority.
01:55:38.960You're dealing with very strange times where only Jagmeet could be so...
01:56:51.780Although these are going to be the, you know, the first couple polls where, you know, because this is the one thing about the early results that people sometimes don't get.
01:57:00.740But I can find you in the safest of safe seats for one of the parties, a poll that goes the other way.
01:57:09.860And, again, you don't know, like, what's with the polls.
01:57:13.740And, like, I think there's some definite fingers on the scale.
01:57:17.840Like, again, when it just, like, you're right.
01:57:20.720Maybe the conservatives were never up 25 points, but the 20-point swing in a week didn't make any sense.
01:57:29.060Yeah, I thought the liberals actually were...
01:57:31.040That's where when the liberals fell behind the conservatives, like, last year by 20 points, I never thought that that was actually going to hold.
01:57:38.780It was indicative of the fact that everyone liked the who was voting conservative liked them, and a lot of people did not want to vote liberal.
01:57:45.200So they artificially inflated the conservative vote.
01:57:47.680But the other thing we had going on was just the Trudeau effect.
01:57:54.420And so once we started swinging back the other way, I was saying that I didn't believe Angus Reid when they said it was only 17% for the liberals, and I didn't believe them when they said it was 45%.
01:58:03.520That's just not how public opinion works.
01:58:13.060And you can immediately tell why that's not good for accurate polling.
01:58:18.120There is a very particular person, on average, who has an air miles card who uses a lot, compared to somebody who uses other sorts of credit cards.
01:58:27.380It's going to be white-collar, jet-set people.
01:58:30.720It's upper middle class polling, yeah.
01:58:32.220Yeah, and even if you get people in different income ranges, I don't know if the lower income range is just retirees who only make $40,000 a year now that they're on their retirement and are on CPP.
01:58:43.860But they used to be high-income earners, and it's a very upper middle class, very graduate-degree demographic of people.
01:58:50.900And even then, it's their kids, because a lot of kids, like myself, get an air miles card because one of your parents wants you to help them collect stuff if you're already going around paying for things anyways.
01:59:02.360You know, just scan it when you go to the grocery store kind of stuff.
01:59:05.460But let's bring this back up on screen.
01:59:50.800But no one expects the conservatives to be, uh, win the vote count coming out because the East Coast is the liberal stronghold.
02:00:00.160Um, it will get, uh, Quebec, we'll see how the bloc does.
02:00:06.040Um, and then when we get into central Canada, then there'll be a huge push to the conservatives.
02:00:11.720Uh, and then we'll see in British Columbia, uh, what happens, uh, in, in these different swing ridings in the lower mainland might decide it.
02:00:20.320So G-Dog here points out, and this is a very good note, that conservatives got 10 seats in Quebec back in 2021.
02:00:26.940I, I actually genuinely all I think the conservatives need to do in Quebec is win the 10 seats.
02:00:31.720There is one in Trois-Rivières that they can win, where a conservative candidate who's run there a couple times before and is running there again, who used to be the mayor, has a good chance of taking a seat from the block.
02:00:43.260But that's a block conservative swing area where it almost doesn't matter who wins.
02:00:47.540It's nice if the conservatives win, but it almost doesn't really matter.
02:00:51.000We just need, uh, to make sure that we, you know, uh, run up the score in some of these good places for us.
02:00:56.380Um, yeah, if I see people spamming, I definitely will, will, like, put people in timeout.
02:01:54.160If it's a really bad loss and it doesn't look like it's going to be at all.
02:01:57.980In fact, it looks like it could go conservative minority, uh, easily right now.
02:02:02.060That if it was a liberal majority, for argument's sake, I'm not trying to doom and gloom here.
02:02:08.180He would just have to really prove himself in the next six months that he deserves to still be there.
02:02:11.980And the other thing, like, listen, let's not give Jagmeet too much credit.
02:02:18.880I think Jagmeet is, and it's going to work with the liberal crowd.
02:02:22.200I think Jagmeet sucks so badly that he's realized how badly he sucked.
02:02:27.060And now he's, uh, you know, post-humanously saying, well, I sucked for the, for the country.
02:02:32.920I did it for the liberals to stop here.
02:02:35.320Um, when in actual fact, it's like, no, you just, you're on TikTok, you know, combing your beard, talking about, I don't know, whatever the hell it is, why we need communism to make a callous stand.
02:03:04.660Even if they drop to nine, if they drop it to the block, it almost doesn't matter.
02:03:07.680You want enough that they still win the plurality because Canadian elections are the way parliament works with the governor general is there is a bias towards whoever has the plurality of seats.
02:03:17.580Where in like the UK and other parliaments, you have to form a coalition.
02:03:21.700Whereas in, uh, Canada, they say, okay, whoever won the most gets to try and govern for as long as possible.
02:03:55.660Yeah, that was conservative last time.
02:03:56.980I'm wondering what Kitchener, Conestoga, uh, over here is going to be like, uh, but York center with one poll in, we have Mr. Roman Baber leading Yahara Sachs.
02:04:08.540So that is a vacation in itself to think about Yahara Sachs, who actually assaulted Daniel here, uh, is potentially going to lose her riding.
02:05:22.160That, that's kind of funny too, that he comes out of, he, he retires Mr. Frazier and then comes out of retirement to run for the liberals again and then might just get stomped out and then loses his ability to ever run for like Nova Scotia provincial, uh, liberal leader or something like that.
02:05:43.080Uh, Leighton Tomlinson says, how many seats do conservatives need in Ontario?
02:05:47.240That's getting into the numbers where I actually don't know how well the conservatives did last time.
02:05:51.140I will bring up the 2021 results and forgive me because the numbers are going to be a bit off since we have added some more seats since last time.
02:05:59.900I want to see if I can get some regional results here.
02:06:21.140And so, and that's Kitchener center, which I don't believe is going to be moving away from the greens.
02:06:25.800That's the thing with the green party and with like Elizabeth May and actually a lot of NDP is that they have like, I said this when I was on a Sean Newman stream today.
02:06:34.880They actually are parties that tend to be made up of characters in terms of people who have big personalities and either you like them or you hate them.
02:06:41.820But the people who like them locally really like them and they'll always show up to vote for them.
02:06:45.360And so, yeah, but overall, guys, we owe a debt of gratitude no matter what this election turns out to be to those who are living in Bluefin land because they got the ball rolling by making sure that it was going to be tight in the city region.
02:07:01.400We could actually even lose Terra Nova, it's not going to matter, but we're still up 306 votes with not many polls left to count.
02:07:08.400Now, let's just go to the island of Montreal where it's not too exciting because obviously we're going to see the liberals sweep basically the entire thing.
02:07:18.280The one we want to hone in on here, which one is it?
02:07:22.480I actually don't know where things are.
02:07:57.560She's the type of Jewish person we all hate because she goes, oh, as, as, as a Jew, I think I, I can negotiate with the terrorists at the expense of everyone else.
02:08:07.420Whereas Anthony Housefather is much more that's the sort of slightly delusional liberal Jew.
02:08:12.660But the liberal party in the Jewish community now is synonymous with terrorism and violence and chaos.
02:08:21.620Most of the Jewish community has seen that the liberals have pretty much given a tacit endorsement to the jihadists roaming around the street.
02:08:31.580You know, most Jewish small businesses in Toronto have been vandalized at least once over the last 18 months.
02:08:39.960And I'm not sure what the numbers are in Montreal.
02:08:41.680But, you know, when, when a coffee shop is named like Goldman's Coffee Shop in Toronto, someone's going to throw a brick from it and with a Nazi paraphernalia on it.
02:08:49.940And they're most likely voting liberal or NDP.
02:08:54.080Conservatives are not vandalizing and harassing Jews right now.
02:08:57.380It is the liberals and the NDP fighting over the current modern Nazi vote.
02:09:02.420So, uh, prior to, you know, Justin Turner's retirement might have helped, uh, Housefather here.
02:09:09.640But if Anthony Housefather loses, um, this would be a clear indication that the Jewish community is done with the liberal party, um, and sees the liberal party as a nest of anti-Semites and radicals.
02:09:22.560So if they can't hold Mount Royal and listen, um, for Quebec, Anglophone Jews, they're different than, uh, those in the GTA here, but voting liberal is sort of a culture for them.
02:09:53.760So they have the, the, the liberal vote sort of in them and the conservative party, they said, they like to think of themselves as sort of progressive and open-minded and modern.
02:10:03.660But if that riding flips conservative, it would be sort of the death knell of, uh, the Jewish support in any meaningful way for the liberal party going forward.
02:10:14.000So that, that's not Royal would tell us if, uh, if Housefather loses it.
02:10:17.600Um, to give people an example here, in case people are ever nervous about early results, when there's only a couple of polls out guys, um, the NDP are not going to win Leduc, uh, with Sasko in, with Sasko in.
02:10:30.600Uh, this is a very easy conservative spriding, but when you only count one poll, obviously it could have just been in a particular place that is going to be tough to win.
02:10:39.960Um, or like it's going to be in particular poll that goes NDP, uh, up in, yeah.
02:10:45.460So all this right now is not being, there's not much counting going on at the moment around here.
02:10:49.840So we'll have to check in a little bit later, but at the moment things look pretty good.
02:10:54.060I don't suspect it would be weird that the Maritimes actually does not go nearly as liberal as we thought.
02:10:59.700And then it's like a wipeout in Ontario and a wipeout in Quebec.
02:11:03.720And as we said just a second ago, the liberals in 21 had gotten 78 seats in Ontario.
02:11:11.780Ontario is even a place where the conservatives can still win fewer seats than the liberals.
02:11:17.080But that's when Saskatchewan and Alberta, rural Manitoba, British Columbia come into play.
02:11:23.140And even the Yukon in order to push the conservatives over the top.
02:11:41.300Like, unless Jagmeet is like the line between liberal or conservative governance, uh, and I have to cheer for Jagmeet in some weird way.
02:11:50.540Um, you know, uh, the, the, the conservatives stand to, to, I mean, BC is going to be very interesting because how do the conservatives play the vote in BC?
02:12:01.400Uh, because, listen, I had a lot of criticisms of their BC strategy.
02:12:06.320Quickly, before you get to that, I'm just going to acknowledge from the Jack, Jack on the track.
02:12:10.700When people are mentioning that we're not showing the numbers right now, it's because the numbers in all the new areas are so preliminary.
02:12:17.260We're counting like a poll where like 50 votes have been counted and it's going to have wacky results if we show it at the moment.
02:12:26.300Maybe I'll keep it on the popular vote up top so you guys can digest that.
02:12:30.080I mean, it could show where it is now.
02:12:32.880I mean, but again, we're, yeah, we're going to, we're in very, when, when a poll's just closing a province, we're in a very, so right now we're in very chaotic, uh, shifting, uh, time.
02:12:44.000This is not an election that's going to end with 50% of the vote for the liberals.
02:12:47.260We've just been counting the very liberal areas.
02:13:06.240I mean, uh, I thought they were playing too much to the Calistanis in BC.
02:13:10.960And it was interesting if you like followed the Calistanis and Boz news, uh, once the poll started to shift liberal, they actually started attacking a lot of their own candidates, um, in BC and calling them like drug dealers and whatever.
02:13:22.740They were the conservative ones because the Calistanis obviously value the liberals and the NDP more because they give them everything they want.
02:13:29.820Um, so I was worried with this strategy and trying to explain like the vast majority of Indian Canadians are not Calistani.
02:13:39.280Um, so it's not like it's Sikhs versus Hindus.
02:13:42.020The majority of Sikhs are not Calistani.
02:13:44.660I mean, they vandalized a Godwara in Vancouver when I was out there.
02:13:48.320Um, and you know, if they, I thought if the conservatives had taken a stronger stance against the extremism, um, they would have played a lot more to, uh, it would have done really well for BC.
02:14:01.360Because as we talked about Asian Canadians are so tired of this nonsense.
02:14:07.380And that's, that's also why we're, we, we are going to see probably pickups in Markham.
02:14:11.640We're going to see the, not only with Jewish vote moving conservative, but Asian vote moving conservative and Persians are probably going to be what's going to win things in York, Richmond Hill, Markham, and all these places.
02:14:21.460Vaughn and the Richmond ridings of British Columbia.
02:14:25.980But it's interesting, like, um, you know, I was talking to my friend Salman, who's door knocking in Donovelly North for Jotay.
02:14:34.100And he's basically saying like anyone with the skin shade darker than him or whatever, all of them vote conservative.
02:14:41.760And the problems he's having is with like, uh, white people.
02:14:45.500They're the, because they're watching CBC and like kind of brainwashed.
02:14:49.520And he's, I mean, he's doing good because he's like Iranian with an accent so he can get through to them.
02:14:53.600Like, no, it's not racism there, but he's basically saying if, if there's any Brown or black guys, they're just, yeah, pure poly of all the way.
02:15:01.860Uh, they don't, they don't vote for social signaling.
02:15:06.040They're just voting for the policy and they like poly of like I was door knocking in my writing, which is safe conservative, but usually, uh, Asian voters are less likely to turn out.
02:15:15.240I was door knocking an area where even people who had supported me in my nomination or were interested.
02:15:19.380And I remember that they were kind of a little more conservative, they're voting liberal, but every single Chinese family on the street, except for maybe one or two out of like 16, we're all voting conservative.
02:15:29.600But we have a code, a coder, Corey says, for $5, I was fear, I was fear mongered into voting liberal last time I want, I won't be fear mongered this time go Pierre.
02:15:40.260And I think that is going to represent a lot of the liberals, because this is why I also doubted the polls.
02:15:45.160The same polls showing the conservatives down by five points would show that 2021 liberals were far more likely to be voting conservative than conservatives voting liberals.
02:15:53.420But then you would see, oh, the liberals are grabbing up a good portion of the NDP, but the NDP aren't that many people.
02:15:59.620And I think a lot of NDP are just going to sit home because if you weren't willing to vote for the more mainstream party before, you're probably not going to then suddenly switch over now because of winning was your concern.
02:16:09.360Why wasn't winning your concern in the other elections?
02:16:11.880Yeah, like, yeah, people really underestimate what drives people out.
02:16:17.780Like, yeah, when the NDP collapses, there's a lot of people who vote NDP because they're like very woke anti-establishment.
02:16:23.840Like the NDP, I mean, you talked to, what's his face?
02:20:02.900Again, if it goes the other way, it's going to be the most topsy-turvy election ever where the conservatives overperform in Maritimes and they underperform in Ontario, but then they overperform in BC.
02:20:16.120Mike Stewart for $13.99 says, thank you for that first.
02:20:19.640I assume you're talking about CCP influence over media and whatnot when you're talking about your children will thank you with things like TikTok and trying to undermine the West.
02:20:48.600But yeah, I think that whoever, if the conservatives get into government, if they want to stay in government, they have to crack down hard on CCP police stations in the country and whatnot.
02:20:57.680Because if you want people to keep winning elections, you have to keep the people from interfering them out.
02:21:04.100Yeah, and it's a great sort of, like, it's a good thing for the country.
02:21:10.000Like, the conservatives need to position themselves as anti-extremists to sort of be the party of normal.
02:21:18.700There's, everyone knows the, there's a general feel that we're losing Canada to hostile foreign powers.
02:21:26.660And there's influence, and if the conservatives can just show that they can take some action on this, because all you need is just a little bit of action to push the momentum out the other way.
02:21:36.920And that's all I want to see from the conservatives.
02:21:38.260It's just, you know, everyone feels like we're going further and further this way off the cliff of losing the country to hostile foreign powers.
02:21:46.000I just want to see the car going the other direction.
02:21:49.520And by the way, everyone, this currently, based on what's going on right now, is actually a pretty good result for the conservatives.
02:21:55.200Remember, the liberals in 2021 in Ontario alone got 78 seats.
02:22:01.500And right now they are, they're going to start running up the numbers once we start counting Toronto.
02:22:05.420But at the moment, they are being kept away from these big numbers that they need in order to offset the conservatives in the West.
02:22:13.020And whenever people say that, I always, honestly, I kind of get annoyed by that truism that, oh, the election's already over after it's let past the East.
02:22:20.360I'm like, well, the conservatives are only in the game because they have the West.
02:22:23.740I mean, if you just inverted the country, people would just say it backwards whenever the conservatives would win.
02:22:29.760Oh, once you get past the West, it's all, you know, it's all over once we get to the East, if somehow time went the opposite direction.
02:22:37.700But Byron here says for $6.99, Miramichi is pronounced Miramichi.
02:22:43.280Stress on the last syllable, great coverage of campaign.
02:24:08.280In the unfortunate event of a liberal win, what are your thoughts on a possible separation of Western Canada from the East?
02:24:13.760I just don't think it's going to happen.
02:24:15.180As much as people think here, it's going to fuel separatist parties in the West that might actually start to be able to win seats.
02:24:22.580At the same time, I don't think you're going to get people off the ground for that because you're going to have to win suburbs in order to get that to happen in Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, the Battlefords.
02:24:35.660And I don't think those voters want to do that, especially retired voters probably don't want to change up the way that their entire, you know, jurisdiction operates in a big referendum.
02:25:15.060Can Trump, like, I don't think, I mean, I don't think Trump has been a genius with the way he's gone about the Canada negotiations so far.
02:25:24.160It's pretty clear he doesn't really understand Canadian politics.
02:25:26.640But if someone in the White House really explains Alberta psychology to him and then a couple of things happen here or there and he actually makes a push for it, offering them, like, dollar for dollar statehood.
02:25:40.540And there's some sort of offer to Alberta.
02:27:14.400Right now, when you see these results, it's a lot of ridings where there is like five votes counted and it is indicative of literally nothing at the moment.
02:27:22.320But we have three Jagmeet NDPers on the board.
02:27:25.960So I assume that Daniel's very excited about that happening.
02:48:09.380But, like, again, around here, a lot of these ridings around the area, and this is why I'm skeptical, why they're calling it super early.
02:48:16.040Again, maybe they're right on the money with it.
02:48:18.080But, like, a lot of these ridings only have, like, one poll counting, and these are generally the ridings I assume that the BQ have a good chance at tonight.
02:48:24.560And the BQ are actually at 23 seats already, with some of these not even counting yet, and some areas that they could easily flip back.
02:48:32.900So the BQ might even have a good night.
03:13:21.980Do you want to get minorities to vote for you?
03:13:23.860Just look them in the eye, speak English, and treat them like everyone else.
03:13:28.480Just pretend everyone's a bunch of white dudes.
03:13:30.680If you treat Asians and Indians like they're just Canadians and no pandering, you don't need to bibbidi-bobbidi-bibbidi-boo, just say everyone's Canada.
03:13:42.160You came to Canada to be Canadian, you'll win them, right?
03:13:45.360But the problem with the conservative – like the problem with the pandering approach is I get it when minority communities get into two modes where it's like either there's racism and like, oh, I hate brown people and the minorities are in the country, white power, right?
03:14:24.140I want to quickly just bring it back to the macro results because, again, a lot of these areas I'm looking at, it's just not much to tell people.
03:14:31.140So what we see right here, bringing it back up on screen, is currently 160 for the liberals, 139 for the conservatives, which is actually gains for them, 25 for the block, 10 for the NDP, and zero for the greens.
03:14:44.340But, again, we've only called 28 for the liberals and 18 for the conservatives, and there's mostly just counting leading ridings.
03:15:06.300I know people are saying minority called.
03:15:11.540I'm more so seeing, okay, if that's true, I want to see what kind of minority it is, and that's what we're going to stick around and keep digesting here.
03:15:19.720Again, the size of the minority is really going to matter.
03:15:23.020However, if it's big enough that they can keep sloughing along with Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, although I think Jagmeet would then step down as leader, because I think he has to at this point, if he wins his riding, which actually doesn't look likely, things could end up not going so hot for the government.
03:15:39.980There's no way Jagmeet Singh can remain leader of the NDP after committing public sepoku.
03:15:44.080Like, saying that, oh, I killed the party to help the Liberals.
03:17:12.500A normal person who's not a political junkie, who can digest the issues of an election in 37 days when most of the parties are still trying to get the signatures for their candidates?
03:18:24.700JQ K says, I live in Halto, and it's about 20 to 1 Conservative to Liberal signs.
03:18:30.320I live in Holton, and it's about 20 to 1 Conservatives to Liberal signs.
03:18:34.000Somehow the Liberals are supposed to win my riding.
03:18:36.760Well, yeah, and maybe it's one of those things where a bunch of people put up signs, but it's just there's like this kind of slow trudge to go vote Liberal, even when they didn't have much investment.
03:18:48.500I mean, there are certain areas where there's like concentrations of like apartment buildings here and there that you might not see, like that have higher density, that might vote Liberal.
03:18:57.040So, okay, sorry, some people are texting me.
03:19:04.260Yeah, let me, let's look into Brampton.
03:19:08.760I think Brampton is going to be an interesting indicator of a few things.
03:19:15.240Yeah, I can bring up Brampton right here.
03:19:18.100I'm not sure if it's too early, but there are at least some conservative gains in this area.
03:19:23.340Yeah, Mildon East Halton Hills, we have Mississauga Streetsville, but it's very tight.
03:19:29.700Brampton South, which is actually a pretty decent lead for the Conservatives, Sukhdeep Khan, 40 under nine votes, and then Brampton West.
03:19:41.500The winner is actually expanding more for Roman Baber, so it's going to be amazing to see Yahara Sachs go.
03:19:46.480Yeah, the second, the biggest vote for, like, on the Kalistan issue is, of course, Abbotsford, so far, anyway.
03:19:58.440But Brampton East will have also a very interesting indicator.
03:20:02.100Jeff Lawl is, was disqualified by the Conservative Party.
03:20:07.560Just another, you know, in their sort of Hindu purge.
03:20:10.300But Jeff Lawl is actually, like, a good community organizer and, like, well-respecting the community.
03:20:15.780He defected to the PPC after all this.
03:20:18.200So it will be interesting to see if the purge of Hindu Canadians from the Conservatives comes back to bite them in Brampton East.
03:20:31.400I just wanted to notice that Markham Unionville is currently, has Michael Ma for the Conservatives leading over the replacement,
03:20:38.660who's also connected with the CCP for the Liberals.
03:20:41.820I forget who, what his name is, but the guy who replaced Paul Chang, who is also in bed with the CCP, it looks like, is, that guy's losing, so that's good.
03:23:57.700And what makes them an important voter bloc is the fact that they live in very concentrated areas.
03:24:05.400And that's where I find that oftentimes the Hindu community can get some disrespect, because they tend to be more dispersed where they live.
03:24:11.560So it's not considered very important, even though there are still a lot of voters.
03:24:15.560That's not a Sikh versus Hindu thing, by the way, because obviously those two communities don't dislike each other.
03:24:21.780Although some Indians will pretend they do.
03:24:53.680Of the entire electorate after this election, conservatives became younger, more minority-based, and more working class in the ridings that were winning.
03:25:04.240It's working class fishermen who opposed the fishing quotas, as well as the liberals banning of the seal hunt that is destroying their actual fishing stock.
03:25:32.020And Dash 1-2, French CBC analyst says, just said, I don't think liberals will have the easy night they were expecting with these results in Atlantic provinces.
03:25:40.920Well, potentially they may still, I don't know.
03:25:44.900And when I say I don't know, I know they've called it, but I'm still just in a haze of confusion that we call stuff when we haven't counted anything.
03:25:51.920Maybe they had crazy exit polling, but I find that odd when every single legacy media place covers it like you're supposed to.
03:25:59.140Bob Carl for $5 says, you're the only one who's giving me some hope.
03:26:28.840You guys have sent in 284 super chats because you're all amazing.
03:26:33.220And I'm still answering super chats from 7 p.m., 7.21 p.m.
03:26:38.680Dash 1-2 says another analyst on French just said some of the seats in Montreal were won by slim margins by liberals, MPs that quit the party since the last election.
03:26:55.760Yeah, so new blue is the provincial conservative party in Ontario that I like because Doug Ford's conservative party is awful.
03:27:03.860Also, by the way, if the conservatives not underperform, but if they fail to win some of these tight ridings in Ontario, by the way, it is not 100%, but that is heavily Doug Ford's fault.
03:27:16.100Because he got into stupid fights with the conservatives to help out Mark Carney.
03:27:21.360That's what him and Corey Tanike were doing.
03:27:23.720Getting into dumb fights in order to benefit the liberals.
03:27:26.360Yeah, and people are even seeing, like, it's really tight, 156 to 147.
03:27:35.840The idea that you would call it when it's literally within 10 is nuts to me.
03:27:41.200Yeah, I mean, yeah, like, yeah, especially because, yeah, this is a close call.
03:27:48.040And, like, yeah, I get friends message me saying the polls were right.
03:27:52.040And I go, like, I don't actually think so.
03:42:51.600Yeah, it looks like the Liberals are going to be winning that one, but it is much closer than you would have probably expected based on previous election results, and there are still more polls to call, so it could end up tightening up more.
03:43:26.660If that is how it's going to go down, that's insane, and that's going to be not a very good night,
03:43:31.040and maybe I'm going to have to eat my hat over Pauly of not winning his riding.
03:43:36.100But I'd heard the same things about Nepean, where Mr. Carney had been poaching people from other ridings around him to try and help himself out.
03:43:45.060Unfortunately, it looks like Kanad has gone Liberal, and Ottawa South, and Nepean, and Ottawa West Nepean.
03:43:52.180Whoever was out there still put in a good effort, so thanks, guys.
03:43:55.120Oh, we'll definitely check back in Carlton in a bit.
03:44:00.420And if that swings, that's a really weird swing, since other things have swung blue that we did not expect.
03:44:55.260But that's pretty good, considering that it was Green incumbent Mike Morris who held this riding.
03:45:00.100And I had seen that if it was going to go to another candidate, or if it was going to go to another party, they thought it was going to be more likely to switch Liberal.
03:45:07.380But it looks like the conservative might pull it out in this area.
03:45:53.800In Windsor, it actually went Liberal in Windsor West last time.
03:45:57.800But now it looks like we have a very solid lead of 1,617 votes.
03:46:03.800St. Catharines is probably going to stay Liberal based on that margin right there.
03:46:07.880But we are picking up a Hamilton riding on Hamilton East Stoney Creek that, based on the 338 numbers, actually said that that was going to be a safe, I think, Liberal or NDP riding.
03:46:20.700But it looks like the Conservative is going to be actually taking that by a pretty good margin unless something big changes quickly.
03:46:30.300Is there anything else interesting going on?
03:46:32.600Bay of Quinty is kind of in the margin where I could see it going the other way.
03:46:35.580York Center is expanding its lead for Roman Baber still.
03:47:12.900But then we end up losing really odd ridings.
03:47:15.440At the same time, we did well in the Maritimes.
03:47:18.020And especially, as I keep calling it, Bluefinland.
03:47:20.880Because we ended up actually taking half the Newfoundland seats in areas where they assumed that it's just a holdout operation for the Conservatives.
03:47:28.240Can the Conservatives hold on to central Newfoundland?
03:47:30.780And they held on to it by, I believe, more than 55% of the vote.
03:47:34.740And now they're grabbing up Little Mountain as well as central Terranova, I still believe.
03:47:39.340Yeah, people are saying that currently Polyev is behind.
03:47:44.120Although, again, I need to see a little bit more of the polls in that riding because we've counted 10 polls.
03:47:49.220And if they're the polls around the Ottawa area, like the Ottawa metro area, I think those ones always naturally lean Liberal.
03:47:55.260Because you have to realize about Polyev's riding, Polyev, since 2004, has always won that riding, like 50 to 40.
03:48:03.04050%, 40% for the Liberals and Greens, NDP, PPC are all in the middle there.
03:48:09.200And so, right now, if it's tight and the Liberals are leading, it could just be that we haven't counted all the acreages.
03:49:17.680In the aftermath of this election, if anyone starts being like, we didn't win, see democracy doesn't work, it's literally a super tight election.