Western Separatism gains record support! Smith in a tight Spot
Episode Stats
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183.17221
Summary
In this episode, Wyatt Claypool discusses the growing separatist sentiment in Western Canada, and what that means for Alberta s premier Daniel Smith and Saskatchewan s Scott Moe. He also talks about why separatism is a bad thing for Alberta and what it could mean for Canada.
Transcript
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In the aftermath of Mark Carney and the Liberals winning the 2025 Canadian federal election,
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separatist sentiments in Western Canada have risen significantly,
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and I would genuinely not want to be Alberta Premier Daniel Smith or Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe right now.
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Not because of any personal dislike, it's just because they are genuinely in a very tough position,
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and I want to break down what that situation looks like for you guys here today.
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Before I get into it, I just want to remind you guys, if you like my political coverage on this channel,
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make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel if you're not yet a subscriber,
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and leave a comment, especially if you're from Western Canada.
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What do you think about separatism? Do you think that the positives outweigh the potential negatives?
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I'm going to be getting into those negatives today because I'm just going to be out up front.
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I'm not really a separatist in any way. I'm not someone who, like, dislikes separatists either.
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I am the most purely neutral person you can find on this issue possible,
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and that's not me riding a fence or anything like that.
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A lot of my political time is invested into trying to leverage Alberta's power in Canada
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So every time people want to separate, it's kind of a bit of a,
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yeah, it would be maybe good for Alberta at the same time.
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I'm like thinking of all the people in Eastern Canada who kind of need Alberta to stick around
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to make the entire country a little bit more rational,
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even if they usually kick out of it and they demand that we have the Liberals for another term.
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But I just want to get into some of the numbers here
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that many people have been posting over the last few days.
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I thought Peter McCaffrey did a good job of framing it.
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Before the election, an Angus Reid poll suggested support for separatism would rise from 25%,
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Now, a new Angus Reid poll shows it's actually up to 36%.
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And now, obviously, the numbers could be a little higher, could be a little lower.
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I have never been someone who thinks that polling is fake,
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but I also don't see it as being 100% accurate.
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But Angus Reid in the federal election was a few points off of what the Conservatives would get
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and a few points off of what the Liberals would get.
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They tend to over-poll the Liberals a bit and under-poll the Conservatives a bit.
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So take that into account whenever you look at numbers like this.
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Maybe separatism is a little bit lower in places like Alberta,
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but people who are separatists are the most likely to actually answer this kind of poll question,
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But we see here, and this is the problem in Alberta for Daniel Smith.
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Supposing Alberta does hold a referendum on succession,
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would you vote for your province to leave Canada or stay?
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And across Alberta, 52% say definitely would vote to stay.
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Now, the problem for Daniel Smith here is that about half her base,
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would actually either consider or is definitely going to vote to leave Canada,
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where the NDP, 93% are definitely voting to stay,
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and she's been trying to manage it as best she can.
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She can't come out against the separatists at the same time she can't endorse them.
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So she's in this between a rock and a hard place kind of situation
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where she can't come out and start, like, you know, spitting venom at them
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at the same time that she can't, like, support what they're doing.
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And frankly, this is kind of the right tact for her.
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A lot of people will pretend, like, oh, she's just, like, an indecisive person
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or she doesn't care about Albertans or something like that
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Support a movement that, frankly, is probably not going to succeed
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because then you're going to have a mass exodus of UCP support to the NDP
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That would be a great way of making retired Albertans in Calgary
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because now they can ignore all of the terrible NDP social and fiscal policy
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and they can vote for them to stand for Canada.
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Remember, most people who live in Alberta, or maybe not most,
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but a large portion of them did not originally live in Alberta
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And they might actually have a lot of sympathies towards Canada staying whole.
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And even then, a lot of people who were born in Alberta
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still have a very strong attraction to wanting to stay in Canada.
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So, I don't really see the separatist movement having any ability to succeed.
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Even then, I could see that being a disaster for the UCP
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because, again, the NDP gets to run as the pro-Canada party
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against the anti-Canada UCP, even if they're not anti-Canada at all.
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But here is what Daniel Smith said at a press conference
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To Alberta separating, I feel that question wasn't directly answered.
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I believe in Alberta's sovereignty within a united Canada.
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However, there is a citizen-initiated referenda process
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that if citizens want to put a question on a ballot
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and get enough of their fellow citizens to sign that petition,
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Again, I don't want to prejudge what a question might be,
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And this is what she's been saying repeatedly since then,
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She's a supporter of Alberta having maximum sovereignty
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But she will let the petition go forward because she kind of has to.
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Because if she doesn't let the petition go forward
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well, now she's the big villain to all the separatists
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who will now mass exodus in a provincial campaign
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and then say that she's not doing enough to quell divisions
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It would just take off the separatists even more.
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And we would just have divisions within Alberta.
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So we would have a divided Canada with a divided Alberta,
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At the same time, the NDP gets to take over the province
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And here's what she said at an address to Albertans
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is not going to be particularly nice to Alberta,
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Danielle Smith at the beginning of the election,
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and then literally reversing himself the next day.
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So I think the good phone call she had with him recently
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on separation from Canada on the referendum ballot.
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our government will respect the democratic process
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and include that question on the 2026 provincial
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I would say you don't want it to be on the 2026 ballot.
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It's not at the same time as the provincial election,
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but you are going to have the NDP use this issue
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it looks like what is basically a suicide mission.
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Mr. Speaker, there is this straw man argument really
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certainly isn't interested in the status quo either.
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Status quo where our province is being treated unfairly
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by a federal government for close to a decade now,
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What we saw in this most recent federal election
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didn't vote for that status quo either, Mr. Speaker.
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there is a right to the founding principles of this party,
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to continue to grow and prosper in its economy,
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and now we have Carla Beck and the Saskatchewan NDP
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in order to get something on a referendum ballot.
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is already very high in both Alberta and Saskatchewan.
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In order to get something on a referendum ballot
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This is also what Nahid Nenshi is doing in Alberta.
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like anti-democratic things the conservatives are doing
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by actually trying to make voting more transparent
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or basically saying the separatist movements out there
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I always find it funny how you can be super patriotic
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and not even be taking care of your own backyard.
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You know, you've got a couple of conservative premiers
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a separatist image of Western Canada approvingly
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I didn't hesitate to point out how dumb that was.
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He pushed back on conservative MLA D.L. Williams
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that really didn't represent everything he believes,
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the unfair treatment of a lot of Western Canada.
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But this country needs to stick together right now.
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than opposition leaders in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
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between the spokes of Scott Moe and Danielle Smith,
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basically saying that they can't just sit idly by
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or do you want the separatist referendum question?
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I'm just saying that when they were in government