The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Where is theConservative path to victory？ (Election Analysis)

00:00:00.200 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. This has been a very chaotic Canadian federal election so far,

00:00:07.620 and I think it's about to get far more chaotic now that Donald Trump has announced a 90-day

00:00:13.400 pause on all tariffs except for China, making that pretty much a non-issue for the rest of

00:00:18.900 the Canadian federal election. In fact, last night, if you were to ask me who's advantaged

00:00:24.260 for winning the race, I would have told you it's now shifted in favor of the Liberals

00:00:28.120 because the tariff issue has become so dominant in people's minds that they think that now we need

00:00:34.740 to vote Liberal to stand with the current government against Donald Trump. Very silly,

00:00:39.760 illogical type reasoning. It demonstrates that you can have lots of life experience and like

00:00:44.720 no wisdom. But as of this morning, now everything is totally different, and we're going to probably

00:00:51.180 start seeing the tariff issue and Donald Trump start to slide down the list of priorities for voters

00:00:57.060 and that the economy, jobs, and housing, immigration is going to start taking the lead once again.

00:01:03.380 In fact, some pollsters were starting to show that Trump was becoming a secondary issue as of last

00:01:08.860 week, but with the Liberation Day announcement by Trump, it suddenly became the main issue again,

00:01:14.680 and now that there is this 90-day pause, it is now going to be a non-issue. So what I want to do today

00:01:21.060 is talk to you about what I see as the Conservative Party of Canada and Pierre Polyev's path to victory

00:01:28.040 in this federal election. Because now that the tariffs aren't here, I think we have shifted from

00:01:33.780 it being more likely for a Liberal minority or majority back to a Conservative minority. I don't

00:01:39.940 think it's likely at this point for a Conservative majority. Something big would have to happen,

00:01:44.440 a big flub by Mark Carney at the debate. I think Polyev will win the debate. You always have to temper

00:01:50.340 your expectations because it's not like Polyev is going to win and Carney is literally going to fall

00:01:55.560 on his face and everyone's going to point and laugh at him. The debate is probably going to shift

00:01:59.660 around two or three points of the electorate. And it doesn't mean that they're even all going to be

00:02:04.920 shifting in favor of the Conservative. It could even shift toward the Bloc or the NDP, depending on the

00:02:10.580 dynamics of the debate. Right now, what's really driving the results is very regional trends. It's where are

00:02:19.560 the campaigns investing money? What are they shifting the messaging to? What kind of demographics are they

00:02:24.860 trying to reach out for? So I want to take you guys through three maps of the regions where I think

00:02:30.460 this entire election is coming down to. Just because I don't highlight an area doesn't mean it's not

00:02:34.960 important. But what I want to do is talk about the major areas where there's a lot of riding for the

00:02:40.840 Conservative Party to beg. At the moment, I'm looking at these maps that are demonstrating a Liberal

00:02:46.500 majority where they're saying the Liberals are going to win 200 seats. Remember, though, that we

00:02:51.080 are looking at a map generated based on all of the polls, even the absolutely insane ones like Angus

00:02:57.160 Reid and ECOS that are showing a 12-point Liberal lead. I'm going to tell you guys, if polls started

00:03:02.520 suddenly showing an 8 or 9-point Conservative lead, I wouldn't believe those ones either. And I

00:03:08.640 definitely don't think that the Liberals are 12 points ahead. In fact, actually, maybe before we get to

00:03:14.080 the maps from Polywave, I want to show you a quick little bit of information from Juneau News. I want

00:03:20.980 to also link this story. If you're a subscriber, you can read the full thing. I will give you a

00:03:25.300 quick sniff of what's going on because I subscribe to them, but I don't want to spill out all their

00:03:30.580 data. Juneau News has been running their own poll. So thank you to Kian Bexty and Candace Malcolm for

00:03:36.440 conducting this poll. But they found out that if you ask people who they're voting for, the Liberals are

00:03:42.740 currently leading 39 to 36. But if you flip the question and you ask people who is your neighbor

00:03:49.840 voting for, 40% of people say Conservative, 38% say Liberal, 14% say New Democrat. And obviously,

00:03:57.280 there's probably some other parties there. They just shuffled those to the side because it really

00:04:00.720 doesn't matter too much because, you know, bloc's only relevant to Quebec and Greens are only relevant

00:04:05.360 in two or three ridings. And the PPC aren't relevant anywhere. In fact, I think they missed like 90

00:04:10.680 ridings or they don't have candidates. The PPC is officially dead. But this is very telling that

00:04:16.300 when you pick up the phone and you ask these people who are more disproportionately likely to be

00:04:21.100 Liberals, because Liberals just take polls more than Conservatives. They work more private sector

00:04:26.160 job or, you know, white collar private sector jobs, or they work public sector jobs where you have more

00:04:31.700 time on your hands or you're in an office environment where you can take a call or you can take a poll on

00:04:36.140 your computer and tell them what you think. Whereas an electrician, a plumber, a farmer is not going

00:04:41.140 to be taking a poll. A construction worker is not going to stop their job to take a poll. In fact,

00:04:46.460 when we poll people who didn't vote in 2021, multiple pollsters, even the ones who are siding

00:04:52.600 against the Conservatives currently, still tell you non-voters are going Conservative by a margin of 10 to

00:04:58.400 12 points. Kolsovsky Strategies has shown me that their poll of non-voters, which is a couple hundred

00:05:05.940 people, but they just weren't sure how statistically significant it would be because you don't know how

00:05:10.360 much non-voters are going to show up. So it's difficult to say. They showed me that non-voters

00:05:15.880 were going Conservative 50%. That doesn't mean 50% of them were going Liberal. That means like 32% of them

00:05:22.860 were going Liberal and 11% were going NDP and 6% were going Block and 4% were going Green and 3%

00:05:29.800 were going PPC. That's what their poll looked like for that. And that's why this is going to be such

00:05:34.860 a tough election to model. There's already a lot of news coming out of Brampton and Mississauga and

00:05:40.960 Surrey that the Conservatives could have big pickups in those areas of the country. The problem with those

00:05:46.100 areas is it's heavily South Asian and South Asian people do not take votes. Ask any Indian friend you

00:05:52.420 have. No one in that community really likes to engage in politics in that granular polling level.

00:05:59.000 In British Columbia, during the entire election, even though South Asians are a significant portion

00:06:03.360 of the population, a poll of like 1,400 people would come out and there would be like

00:06:07.940 14 people, South Asian, maybe 30 South Asian people taking that poll. That's real. And then the

00:06:14.980 Conservatives ended up winning a bunch of Surrey ridings that they didn't even assume were in play for

00:06:18.880 them because of the polling. People on the ground would feel it, but elsewhere, no. In fact, when I

00:06:24.400 talk to Conservative Party organizers, one, they say their internal polling is far better than the

00:06:30.440 public polling is going. Doesn't mean they're leading by 10, but you know, they might be leading

00:06:33.720 by two or three, which is at least decent for the Conservatives. And then they'll also say that what

00:06:39.360 they're seeing a shift in is it's not Western Canada versus Eastern Canada. It is working class

00:06:45.220 neighborhoods. It is more conservative, traditional suburban ridings versus these kind of default

00:06:52.820 liberal, upper middle class, white collar people who are voting liberal because Donald Trump sucks.

00:06:59.780 So it's people fighting for their lives here who just want taxes to go down and like more housing to

00:07:06.620 be built so they can actually afford something, immigration to be lowered, fighting back against 0.76

00:07:10.840 people who watch way too much CBC. Anyways, though, so I want to move on now to the map because I think

00:07:16.360 the maps are where this all gets interesting and where I think the Conservative Party win is kind of

00:07:21.640 coming from here. Let's start off, and I say this a lot on social media, let's start off in Southwestern

00:07:27.400 Ontario. This is really where I think you're going to see the staging of a Conservative victory. Now, reminder

00:07:35.240 that this map is currently generating a majority for the Liberals of 200 seats. That's mixing in a lot

00:07:41.240 of what I would consider to be completely crap polls. So I have count, I've already gone through this map,

00:07:46.200 and I count up about 50 to 60 seats that could easily swing towards the Conservatives. So right here,

00:07:53.560 I think what the Conservatives need to be pulling off is that they need these two Niagara ridings. They need

00:07:59.080 both Kitcheners, they need Conestoga, South Hesper, Cambridge, they probably also need Windsor. There

00:08:05.960 now is in this area, despite the polling not being very nice to the Conservatives over the past week,

00:08:11.560 all of Brampton and Mississauga has opened up. Because the organization Cardinal Research has done

00:08:16.920 riding specific polls where they worked really hard to get people who live in the ridings

00:08:20.840 to take a poll, and it showed that all of these are complete knife fights. Everything in Mississauga and

00:08:25.960 Brampton might be in play outside of places like Streetsville and Etobicoke North. Most of the

00:08:33.160 GTA outside of deep Toronto and places like Etobicoke are in play right now. And those all could be

00:08:39.960 going conservative potentially. If you were to just give half of these kind of pinkish red ridings to

00:08:47.000 the Conservatives, they're actually probably much more ahead than you think.

00:08:51.560 Bay of Quinty, North Cumberland-Clark, Peterborough, Simcoe North. If the Conservatives can grab up all

00:08:58.120 this stuff, in the southwest of Ontario, we are now getting towards a conservative minority government.

00:09:05.000 Now I want to bring up the next map because now I want to move over to,

00:09:09.960 we go to Atlantic Canada, we go to British Columbia. Let's go to British Columbia first.

00:09:14.040 Right now, the models are demonstrating a lot of ridings going liberal that haven't gone liberal in years.

00:09:19.720 Again, I think that while we're seeing here is a response bias, but let's just get down to the

00:09:25.160 numbers. What the Conservatives need to be winning here is if they can be grabbing stuff like

00:09:28.920 Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, Langley. Cloverdale, Langley City is a perfect

00:09:35.960 example of a riding where I think the Liberals or the Conservatives are going to hold on to it.

00:09:40.360 But that's a riding that the Conservatives in the by-election literally won it by 50%.

00:09:44.440 These are places that have turned against the Liberals, and I don't think any news about Trump

00:09:48.920 is going to be able to move enough votes for the Liberals to be able to gain that riding back.

00:09:54.120 Again, in this area, if the Conservatives can even grab a third of these ridings,

00:09:58.360 a Richmond Centre Mariupol, that Port Moody area, if they can grab up Langley Township,

00:10:04.200 they can hold on to these. Some of these are they're currently holding, but we're just,

00:10:07.560 I'm just saying if the polls flip back and they show them winning again, if they can grab up half

00:10:12.040 these ridings, now we are in the minority situation. Abbotsford South Langley is going

00:10:17.160 to be an interesting one because, I'm going to be frank, the Conservatives ran a crap garbage

00:10:22.200 candidate. They ran someone who frankly cheated for the nomination, and now there is an independent

00:10:27.560 running in that riding, Mike DeYoung. Honestly, if I was living in that riding, I'd be voting for

00:10:31.800 Mike DeYoung. Mike DeYoung's not even much of a Conservative in any way, but you know, he's a real

00:10:36.680 candidate and he actually got kicked out of the nomination for daring run against some guy who literally

00:10:41.800 was a Liberal poll worker up until like last year. Then we get to the island. If the Conservatives

00:10:47.080 can get, not Victoria, sorry, Cowichan, Malahat, Langford, Courtney Alberni, and then they can hold

00:10:54.520 on to a place like North Island, Powell River, where Aaron Gunn is running, and then they can also grab

00:11:00.120 up Kelowna. They currently hold Kelowna. I don't think that's going to be a tough riding to hold on to.

00:11:04.760 If they grab up all this stuff, if they are able to hold on to one more of these Calgary ridings,

00:11:10.360 if they're able to hold on to or grab up two of these ridings in Edmonton that are either going

00:11:16.040 NDP or Liberal, if they can grab Yukon, we are actually now within the ranges of 150 seats or so,

00:11:23.880 145, 150 seats. The Conservatives would then be beating the Liberals. I think the Conservatives,

00:11:29.640 to have a minority government that holds, that doesn't immediately fall into a coalition between

00:11:35.160 the NDP and the Liberals, they need 160 seats. I think the Bloc Quebecois are actually going to be

00:11:41.400 more likely to work with the Conservatives than they are with the Liberals. Because the problem

00:11:46.120 with the Bloc Quebecois working with the Liberals is that the Bloc are currently hemorrhaging a lot

00:11:50.760 of support to the Liberals. If the Bloc then just make it that if you vote Bloc you get the Liberals

00:11:56.120 anyways, what's the point of them even existing? The only way for the Bloc to make themselves relevant 0.99

00:12:01.880 is to hold up a new government, get rid of the Liberals, and then show that they're the ones,

00:12:06.280 you know, basically be able to market themselves as the ones who defeated the corrupt old Trudeau

00:12:11.800 Kearney government. Now let's move on to another place. This is an area where I would say actually

00:12:19.480 almost probably 30 percent of the gains for the Conservatives could come from here, and that is

00:12:25.240 Atlantic Canada. This is again where I think the polls are just currently really cattywampus right now,

00:12:31.160 to use a term. There is no chance that the Liberals are sweeping Newfoundland and Labrador. If you have

00:12:38.840 seen the fishermen protests, if you have seen the mass rallies for Polyev over the issue of the seal

00:12:45.080 hunt and fishing in general, there are so many people who work in either fishing and oil and gas

00:12:51.160 in Newfoundland and Labrador who would never even consider voting Liberal. There are Liberals I know

00:12:56.200 who have said that the Liberals are not even attempting to win in central Newfoundland. It's

00:13:01.080 just such a bad riding for them, despite what the polls currently show. But here is where I would say

00:13:07.000 that the Conservatives, if they can grab up Miramachi Grand Lake, if they can grab up Central Nova,

00:13:13.720 Cape Breton, and if they can sweep these three Newfoundland ridings, maybe not Labrador, but they can

00:13:19.240 grab those three and they can grab one PEI riding. Now we are in the mid-60s, if not bordering on a

00:13:26.360 majority government. So I think this is all very realistic. If you live in any of these ridings,

00:13:32.760 any of these regions I've been highlighting, make sure to get a lawn sign. That is what is going to

00:13:38.120 make the difference, is people seeing it as the normal change option in this election to vote Conservative.

00:13:44.360 There are so many, what I would call, nervous suburban middle-class people who think right now

00:13:49.480 you have to vote Liberal because the CBC keeps saying it, and that you're a bad person who wants

00:13:53.720 Trump to take the country if you don't. It's ridiculous. It's insane. The good thing is that

00:13:59.080 there's no longer a tariff threat, so that I think that right now everything's going to loosen up a lot

00:14:03.640 for the Conservatives. In fact, I think that we can probably grab up two Hamilton ridings. But this is

00:14:08.760 what we need. The GTA is kind of important, kind of. York Centre is a big deal, Willowdale,

00:14:16.360 Don Valley North. These are three very winnable regions bordering on Melissa Lansman's area of

00:14:21.400 Thornhill. That helps a lot, especially Don Valley North. I think that's going to go in Joe Tay's

00:14:26.920 favour just from the fact that Paul Chang had made that threat of having him arrested by the CCP.

00:14:32.520 All of this, if we can get in touch with these suburban areas, the whole election is then in

00:14:38.680 the bag for the Conservatives. So we are on the knife's edge right now, and despite the polling

00:14:43.800 shifting Liberal, it's going to probably start shifting Conservative now that the tariff issue

00:14:49.320 no longer exists. What the Conservatives now need to be doing is just battering the Liberals over the

00:14:56.280 poor economic health of the country. That they have effectively ruined the country,

00:15:01.480 made it so vulnerable that the only reason you can even fear-monger about Trump taking over Canada,

00:15:07.240 making it the 51st state, or destroying our industry through tariffs, is because Carney,

00:15:12.360 as the economic advisor of the country for the past five years, has destroyed our prosperity to

00:15:19.400 the point where even he left. Even he moved his company to New York City, and then even he was using

00:15:26.680 like whatever countries in the Caribbean as a tax haven, Bermuda, because it's horrible being in

00:15:33.560 Canada right now. At the moment, I would say that right now, most polls are showing Conservatives

00:15:39.640 lagging behind the Liberals by three to six points. If the Conservatives can win by two points, I think

00:15:46.200 we're in a minority government. If we can win by four, then there might be a majority. So get a

00:15:52.360 lawn sign, get a lawn sign for the Conservatives to let your neighbors know that the Conservative

00:15:57.240 option is the default, because that is what we are currently fighting with. The NDP's collapse,

00:16:03.320 what that makes everything, what's so dangerous about the NDP collapsing for Conservatives is that

00:16:08.920 it makes it feel like the default option that everyone's going for right now is the Liberals,

00:16:14.120 because that's the narrative that the NDP collapse has generated, even though a lot of NDP voters are

00:16:19.560 going Conservative. So what you have to demonstrate, especially if you're an NDP turned Conservative

00:16:24.600 voter, is that no, this needs to be a change election. It cannot be an election where we just

00:16:29.960 simply give the Liberals another mandate because outside forces said so. You know, in 2021, it was

00:16:36.360 outside forces that got the Liberals back in, it was the COVID issue, everyone was freaked out,

00:16:40.600 you got to stick with the government that's been managing it so far. And now it's, oh, well,

00:16:44.760 you know, with Trump, so we got to vote Liberal, as if he cares. In fact, he does care. He thinks

00:16:49.640 the Liberals are weak, and he'd like to negotiate against them. This is where we're at. And this is

00:16:54.120 why, you know, this is like, I don't want to be generic, this is actually an extremely important

00:16:59.160 election, and the Liberals can absolutely win it. I tend to be an optimist because I've seen this movie

00:17:05.240 before. Tons of elections, you get the Liberals who sprint ahead, they peak early, and then they start

00:17:11.480 falling apart. Even Liberal media is signaling that Carney might have peaked too early. And the

00:17:16.520 Liberals are seeing the rallies that Polly was bringing in and saying, wow, this guy actually

00:17:20.680 has momentum. There's tons of people at these rallies you can tell have never voted before.

00:17:25.000 And that's dangerous because those people are not in the polls. When we see non-voters, small,

00:17:31.080 it's hard to get non-voters to answer polls because naturally, they've only started politically

00:17:35.240 engaging, and that doesn't mean they're going to start taking polls all over the place.

00:17:38.040 What is dangerous for the Liberals is that if 50%, 45%, 46%, like all the polls are showing,

00:17:45.560 of non-2021 voters are going conservative, if the voter turnout goes from 63%, from 2021 to 73%,

00:17:55.880 a good 7-8% of those people, or 5-6% of that 10%, could go conservative. And in so many of these

00:18:03.960 working-class suburban ridings around the GTA and southwestern Ontario and British Columbia,

00:18:09.560 both on the island as well as in the lower mainland, and then in the Atlantic Canadian

00:18:15.240 provinces, that could swing it hard. Because the people that the Liberals are marketing to

00:18:20.200 are kind of doubling down on the exact same people that they were winning in previous elections.

00:18:25.320 People who live in downtown Toronto and sort of those downtown suburban kind of shoulder areas,

00:18:32.200 people who are retired and are nervously watching CTV News and CBC every day to hear how bad Trump

00:18:37.960 is, and they think Carney's now their savior because he's the prime minister at the time.

00:18:44.040 And so what the Liberals might actually run into is that their voter share goes up,

00:18:48.520 but their voter efficiency goes down. It's always been that the Conservatives usually have to win the

00:18:54.440 popular vote by several more points than the Liberals do in order to win a majority government,

00:18:58.840 because so much of the Conservative vote is bound up in rural areas, whereas the Liberal vote is very

00:19:04.280 efficiently mapped out in the GTA area where they can win a lot of seats, even though they're only

00:19:09.000 winning it with like 39% of the vote, whereas Conservatives win with like 68% of the vote in a lot of areas.

00:19:15.240 Now, because the Liberals are marketing so hard to this urban metropolitan crew,

00:19:19.320 I could see that the Liberals' voter efficiency might be tanking, while working-class voters are moving 0.99

00:19:24.680 towards the Conservatives and are going to generate a lot of very marginal Conservative victories in

00:19:29.800 the suburban ridings that the Liberals have just left the people behind in. Anyway, so I'm trying to

00:19:35.080 almost make sense of this election as we go on. Innovative research and advocates have actually

00:19:40.280 showed the Liberals taking the quite large leads in their polls. I'd like to see what things are going

00:19:45.880 to happen now that the tariffs are gone, because at the same time the polls I actually respect a lot have

00:19:50.680 been moving in a Liberal direction. All the polls that I've been deriding as not being very good,

00:19:55.080 because they're not very good, have actually been moving Conservative. This whole situation is

00:20:00.200 extremely messy, and I just truly don't know what's going to happen until maybe five days from now,

00:20:06.280 when everything's going to shake out and maybe look a little bit more steady with where voters are

00:20:11.240 shifting over and what the mood of the country is. Anyways, so that should be it for this video,

00:20:16.520 guys. I'm actually going to go get a haircut, so in the video later today you will be able to rate

00:20:21.400 how my haircut went. Hopefully I'm not going to, you know, come back with a buzz cut and no one's

00:20:25.880 going to make a mistake. You know, fingers crossed here. But that should be it for me today, guys.

00:20:30.440 Make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, do all that great stuff,

00:20:34.040 and I'll see you guys next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 09, 2025

Where is theConservative path to victory？ (Election Analysis)

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