Where is theConservative path to victory？ (Election Analysis)
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Summary
Trump's 90-day pause on all tariffs except for China is now a non issue for the rest of the election. Now that the tariffs are no longer a major issue, we can start to see the economy, jobs, and immigration start to take the lead once again.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. This has been a very chaotic Canadian federal election so far,
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and I think it's about to get far more chaotic now that Donald Trump has announced a 90-day
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pause on all tariffs except for China, making that pretty much a non-issue for the rest of
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the Canadian federal election. In fact, last night, if you were to ask me who's advantaged
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for winning the race, I would have told you it's now shifted in favor of the Liberals
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because the tariff issue has become so dominant in people's minds that they think that now we need
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to vote Liberal to stand with the current government against Donald Trump. Very silly,
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illogical type reasoning. It demonstrates that you can have lots of life experience and like
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no wisdom. But as of this morning, now everything is totally different, and we're going to probably
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start seeing the tariff issue and Donald Trump start to slide down the list of priorities for voters
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and that the economy, jobs, and housing, immigration is going to start taking the lead once again.
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In fact, some pollsters were starting to show that Trump was becoming a secondary issue as of last
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week, but with the Liberation Day announcement by Trump, it suddenly became the main issue again,
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and now that there is this 90-day pause, it is now going to be a non-issue. So what I want to do today
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is talk to you about what I see as the Conservative Party of Canada and Pierre Polyev's path to victory
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in this federal election. Because now that the tariffs aren't here, I think we have shifted from
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it being more likely for a Liberal minority or majority back to a Conservative minority. I don't
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think it's likely at this point for a Conservative majority. Something big would have to happen,
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a big flub by Mark Carney at the debate. I think Polyev will win the debate. You always have to temper
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your expectations because it's not like Polyev is going to win and Carney is literally going to fall
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on his face and everyone's going to point and laugh at him. The debate is probably going to shift
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around two or three points of the electorate. And it doesn't mean that they're even all going to be
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shifting in favor of the Conservative. It could even shift toward the Bloc or the NDP, depending on the
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dynamics of the debate. Right now, what's really driving the results is very regional trends. It's where are
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the campaigns investing money? What are they shifting the messaging to? What kind of demographics are they
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trying to reach out for? So I want to take you guys through three maps of the regions where I think
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this entire election is coming down to. Just because I don't highlight an area doesn't mean it's not
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important. But what I want to do is talk about the major areas where there's a lot of riding for the
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Conservative Party to beg. At the moment, I'm looking at these maps that are demonstrating a Liberal
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majority where they're saying the Liberals are going to win 200 seats. Remember, though, that we
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are looking at a map generated based on all of the polls, even the absolutely insane ones like Angus
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Reid and ECOS that are showing a 12-point Liberal lead. I'm going to tell you guys, if polls started
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suddenly showing an 8 or 9-point Conservative lead, I wouldn't believe those ones either. And I
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definitely don't think that the Liberals are 12 points ahead. In fact, actually, maybe before we get to
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the maps from Polywave, I want to show you a quick little bit of information from Juneau News. I want
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to also link this story. If you're a subscriber, you can read the full thing. I will give you a
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quick sniff of what's going on because I subscribe to them, but I don't want to spill out all their
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data. Juneau News has been running their own poll. So thank you to Kian Bexty and Candace Malcolm for
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conducting this poll. But they found out that if you ask people who they're voting for, the Liberals are
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currently leading 39 to 36. But if you flip the question and you ask people who is your neighbor
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voting for, 40% of people say Conservative, 38% say Liberal, 14% say New Democrat. And obviously,
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there's probably some other parties there. They just shuffled those to the side because it really
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doesn't matter too much because, you know, bloc's only relevant to Quebec and Greens are only relevant
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in two or three ridings. And the PPC aren't relevant anywhere. In fact, I think they missed like 90
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ridings or they don't have candidates. The PPC is officially dead. But this is very telling that
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when you pick up the phone and you ask these people who are more disproportionately likely to be
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Liberals, because Liberals just take polls more than Conservatives. They work more private sector
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job or, you know, white collar private sector jobs, or they work public sector jobs where you have more
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time on your hands or you're in an office environment where you can take a call or you can take a poll on
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your computer and tell them what you think. Whereas an electrician, a plumber, a farmer is not going
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to be taking a poll. A construction worker is not going to stop their job to take a poll. In fact,
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when we poll people who didn't vote in 2021, multiple pollsters, even the ones who are siding
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against the Conservatives currently, still tell you non-voters are going Conservative by a margin of 10 to
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12 points. Kolsovsky Strategies has shown me that their poll of non-voters, which is a couple hundred
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people, but they just weren't sure how statistically significant it would be because you don't know how
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much non-voters are going to show up. So it's difficult to say. They showed me that non-voters
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were going Conservative 50%. That doesn't mean 50% of them were going Liberal. That means like 32% of them
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were going Liberal and 11% were going NDP and 6% were going Block and 4% were going Green and 3%
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were going PPC. That's what their poll looked like for that. And that's why this is going to be such
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a tough election to model. There's already a lot of news coming out of Brampton and Mississauga and
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Surrey that the Conservatives could have big pickups in those areas of the country. The problem with those
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areas is it's heavily South Asian and South Asian people do not take votes. Ask any Indian friend you
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have. No one in that community really likes to engage in politics in that granular polling level.
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In British Columbia, during the entire election, even though South Asians are a significant portion
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of the population, a poll of like 1,400 people would come out and there would be like
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14 people, South Asian, maybe 30 South Asian people taking that poll. That's real. And then the
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Conservatives ended up winning a bunch of Surrey ridings that they didn't even assume were in play for
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them because of the polling. People on the ground would feel it, but elsewhere, no. In fact, when I
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talk to Conservative Party organizers, one, they say their internal polling is far better than the
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public polling is going. Doesn't mean they're leading by 10, but you know, they might be leading
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by two or three, which is at least decent for the Conservatives. And then they'll also say that what
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they're seeing a shift in is it's not Western Canada versus Eastern Canada. It is working class
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neighborhoods. It is more conservative, traditional suburban ridings versus these kind of default
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liberal, upper middle class, white collar people who are voting liberal because Donald Trump sucks.
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So it's people fighting for their lives here who just want taxes to go down and like more housing to
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be built so they can actually afford something, immigration to be lowered, fighting back against
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people who watch way too much CBC. Anyways, though, so I want to move on now to the map because I think
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the maps are where this all gets interesting and where I think the Conservative Party win is kind of
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coming from here. Let's start off, and I say this a lot on social media, let's start off in Southwestern
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Ontario. This is really where I think you're going to see the staging of a Conservative victory. Now, reminder
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that this map is currently generating a majority for the Liberals of 200 seats. That's mixing in a lot
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of what I would consider to be completely crap polls. So I have count, I've already gone through this map,
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and I count up about 50 to 60 seats that could easily swing towards the Conservatives. So right here,
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I think what the Conservatives need to be pulling off is that they need these two Niagara ridings. They need
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both Kitcheners, they need Conestoga, South Hesper, Cambridge, they probably also need Windsor. There
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now is in this area, despite the polling not being very nice to the Conservatives over the past week,
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all of Brampton and Mississauga has opened up. Because the organization Cardinal Research has done
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riding specific polls where they worked really hard to get people who live in the ridings
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to take a poll, and it showed that all of these are complete knife fights. Everything in Mississauga and
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Brampton might be in play outside of places like Streetsville and Etobicoke North. Most of the
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GTA outside of deep Toronto and places like Etobicoke are in play right now. And those all could be
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going conservative potentially. If you were to just give half of these kind of pinkish red ridings to
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the Conservatives, they're actually probably much more ahead than you think.
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Bay of Quinty, North Cumberland-Clark, Peterborough, Simcoe North. If the Conservatives can grab up all
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this stuff, in the southwest of Ontario, we are now getting towards a conservative minority government.
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Now I want to bring up the next map because now I want to move over to,
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we go to Atlantic Canada, we go to British Columbia. Let's go to British Columbia first.
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Right now, the models are demonstrating a lot of ridings going liberal that haven't gone liberal in years.
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Again, I think that while we're seeing here is a response bias, but let's just get down to the
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numbers. What the Conservatives need to be winning here is if they can be grabbing stuff like
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Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, Langley. Cloverdale, Langley City is a perfect
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example of a riding where I think the Liberals or the Conservatives are going to hold on to it.
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But that's a riding that the Conservatives in the by-election literally won it by 50%.
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These are places that have turned against the Liberals, and I don't think any news about Trump
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is going to be able to move enough votes for the Liberals to be able to gain that riding back.
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Again, in this area, if the Conservatives can even grab a third of these ridings,
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a Richmond Centre Mariupol, that Port Moody area, if they can grab up Langley Township,
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they can hold on to these. Some of these are they're currently holding, but we're just,
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I'm just saying if the polls flip back and they show them winning again, if they can grab up half
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these ridings, now we are in the minority situation. Abbotsford South Langley is going
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to be an interesting one because, I'm going to be frank, the Conservatives ran a crap garbage
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candidate. They ran someone who frankly cheated for the nomination, and now there is an independent
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running in that riding, Mike DeYoung. Honestly, if I was living in that riding, I'd be voting for
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Mike DeYoung. Mike DeYoung's not even much of a Conservative in any way, but you know, he's a real
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candidate and he actually got kicked out of the nomination for daring run against some guy who literally
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was a Liberal poll worker up until like last year. Then we get to the island. If the Conservatives
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can get, not Victoria, sorry, Cowichan, Malahat, Langford, Courtney Alberni, and then they can hold
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on to a place like North Island, Powell River, where Aaron Gunn is running, and then they can also grab
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up Kelowna. They currently hold Kelowna. I don't think that's going to be a tough riding to hold on to.
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If they grab up all this stuff, if they are able to hold on to one more of these Calgary ridings,
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if they're able to hold on to or grab up two of these ridings in Edmonton that are either going
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NDP or Liberal, if they can grab Yukon, we are actually now within the ranges of 150 seats or so,
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145, 150 seats. The Conservatives would then be beating the Liberals. I think the Conservatives,
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to have a minority government that holds, that doesn't immediately fall into a coalition between
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the NDP and the Liberals, they need 160 seats. I think the Bloc Quebecois are actually going to be
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more likely to work with the Conservatives than they are with the Liberals. Because the problem
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with the Bloc Quebecois working with the Liberals is that the Bloc are currently hemorrhaging a lot
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of support to the Liberals. If the Bloc then just make it that if you vote Bloc you get the Liberals
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anyways, what's the point of them even existing? The only way for the Bloc to make themselves relevant
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is to hold up a new government, get rid of the Liberals, and then show that they're the ones,
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you know, basically be able to market themselves as the ones who defeated the corrupt old Trudeau
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Kearney government. Now let's move on to another place. This is an area where I would say actually
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almost probably 30 percent of the gains for the Conservatives could come from here, and that is
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Atlantic Canada. This is again where I think the polls are just currently really cattywampus right now,
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to use a term. There is no chance that the Liberals are sweeping Newfoundland and Labrador. If you have
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seen the fishermen protests, if you have seen the mass rallies for Polyev over the issue of the seal
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hunt and fishing in general, there are so many people who work in either fishing and oil and gas
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in Newfoundland and Labrador who would never even consider voting Liberal. There are Liberals I know
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who have said that the Liberals are not even attempting to win in central Newfoundland. It's
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just such a bad riding for them, despite what the polls currently show. But here is where I would say
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that the Conservatives, if they can grab up Miramachi Grand Lake, if they can grab up Central Nova,
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Cape Breton, and if they can sweep these three Newfoundland ridings, maybe not Labrador, but they can
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grab those three and they can grab one PEI riding. Now we are in the mid-60s, if not bordering on a
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majority government. So I think this is all very realistic. If you live in any of these ridings,
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any of these regions I've been highlighting, make sure to get a lawn sign. That is what is going to
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make the difference, is people seeing it as the normal change option in this election to vote Conservative.
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There are so many, what I would call, nervous suburban middle-class people who think right now
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you have to vote Liberal because the CBC keeps saying it, and that you're a bad person who wants
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Trump to take the country if you don't. It's ridiculous. It's insane. The good thing is that
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there's no longer a tariff threat, so that I think that right now everything's going to loosen up a lot
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for the Conservatives. In fact, I think that we can probably grab up two Hamilton ridings. But this is
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what we need. The GTA is kind of important, kind of. York Centre is a big deal, Willowdale,
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Don Valley North. These are three very winnable regions bordering on Melissa Lansman's area of
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Thornhill. That helps a lot, especially Don Valley North. I think that's going to go in Joe Tay's
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favour just from the fact that Paul Chang had made that threat of having him arrested by the CCP.
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All of this, if we can get in touch with these suburban areas, the whole election is then in
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the bag for the Conservatives. So we are on the knife's edge right now, and despite the polling
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shifting Liberal, it's going to probably start shifting Conservative now that the tariff issue
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no longer exists. What the Conservatives now need to be doing is just battering the Liberals over the
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poor economic health of the country. That they have effectively ruined the country,
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made it so vulnerable that the only reason you can even fear-monger about Trump taking over Canada,
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making it the 51st state, or destroying our industry through tariffs, is because Carney,
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as the economic advisor of the country for the past five years, has destroyed our prosperity to
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the point where even he left. Even he moved his company to New York City, and then even he was using
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like whatever countries in the Caribbean as a tax haven, Bermuda, because it's horrible being in
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Canada right now. At the moment, I would say that right now, most polls are showing Conservatives
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lagging behind the Liberals by three to six points. If the Conservatives can win by two points, I think
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we're in a minority government. If we can win by four, then there might be a majority. So get a
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lawn sign, get a lawn sign for the Conservatives to let your neighbors know that the Conservative
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option is the default, because that is what we are currently fighting with. The NDP's collapse,
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what that makes everything, what's so dangerous about the NDP collapsing for Conservatives is that
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it makes it feel like the default option that everyone's going for right now is the Liberals,
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because that's the narrative that the NDP collapse has generated, even though a lot of NDP voters are
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going Conservative. So what you have to demonstrate, especially if you're an NDP turned Conservative
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voter, is that no, this needs to be a change election. It cannot be an election where we just
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simply give the Liberals another mandate because outside forces said so. You know, in 2021, it was
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outside forces that got the Liberals back in, it was the COVID issue, everyone was freaked out,
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you got to stick with the government that's been managing it so far. And now it's, oh, well,
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you know, with Trump, so we got to vote Liberal, as if he cares. In fact, he does care. He thinks
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the Liberals are weak, and he'd like to negotiate against them. This is where we're at. And this is
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why, you know, this is like, I don't want to be generic, this is actually an extremely important
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election, and the Liberals can absolutely win it. I tend to be an optimist because I've seen this movie
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before. Tons of elections, you get the Liberals who sprint ahead, they peak early, and then they start
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falling apart. Even Liberal media is signaling that Carney might have peaked too early. And the
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Liberals are seeing the rallies that Polly was bringing in and saying, wow, this guy actually
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has momentum. There's tons of people at these rallies you can tell have never voted before.
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And that's dangerous because those people are not in the polls. When we see non-voters, small,
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it's hard to get non-voters to answer polls because naturally, they've only started politically
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engaging, and that doesn't mean they're going to start taking polls all over the place.
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What is dangerous for the Liberals is that if 50%, 45%, 46%, like all the polls are showing,
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of non-2021 voters are going conservative, if the voter turnout goes from 63%, from 2021 to 73%,
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a good 7-8% of those people, or 5-6% of that 10%, could go conservative. And in so many of these
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working-class suburban ridings around the GTA and southwestern Ontario and British Columbia,
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both on the island as well as in the lower mainland, and then in the Atlantic Canadian
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provinces, that could swing it hard. Because the people that the Liberals are marketing to
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are kind of doubling down on the exact same people that they were winning in previous elections.
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People who live in downtown Toronto and sort of those downtown suburban kind of shoulder areas,
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people who are retired and are nervously watching CTV News and CBC every day to hear how bad Trump
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is, and they think Carney's now their savior because he's the prime minister at the time.
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And so what the Liberals might actually run into is that their voter share goes up,
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but their voter efficiency goes down. It's always been that the Conservatives usually have to win the
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popular vote by several more points than the Liberals do in order to win a majority government,
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because so much of the Conservative vote is bound up in rural areas, whereas the Liberal vote is very
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efficiently mapped out in the GTA area where they can win a lot of seats, even though they're only
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winning it with like 39% of the vote, whereas Conservatives win with like 68% of the vote in a lot of areas.
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Now, because the Liberals are marketing so hard to this urban metropolitan crew,
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I could see that the Liberals' voter efficiency might be tanking, while working-class voters are moving
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towards the Conservatives and are going to generate a lot of very marginal Conservative victories in
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the suburban ridings that the Liberals have just left the people behind in. Anyway, so I'm trying to
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almost make sense of this election as we go on. Innovative research and advocates have actually
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showed the Liberals taking the quite large leads in their polls. I'd like to see what things are going
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to happen now that the tariffs are gone, because at the same time the polls I actually respect a lot have
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been moving in a Liberal direction. All the polls that I've been deriding as not being very good,
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because they're not very good, have actually been moving Conservative. This whole situation is
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extremely messy, and I just truly don't know what's going to happen until maybe five days from now,
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when everything's going to shake out and maybe look a little bit more steady with where voters are
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shifting over and what the mood of the country is. Anyways, so that should be it for this video,
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guys. I'm actually going to go get a haircut, so in the video later today you will be able to rate
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how my haircut went. Hopefully I'm not going to, you know, come back with a buzz cut and no one's
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going to make a mistake. You know, fingers crossed here. But that should be it for me today, guys.
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Make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, do all that great stuff,