In this episode, we compare the Ontario Progressive Conservative government and the federal government's response to Prime Minister Mark Carney's decision to remove a ban on Chinese-made electric vehicles from Canada's borders. We also discuss why this is bad news for PM Carney and why a snap election is likely coming in 2026.
00:10:21.660And now we don't need to watch any more of that. You know, thank you to I believe actually that CTV
00:10:25.800News or Global who did that coverage and was pretty good. And also it's even worse for the Liberals because
00:10:32.680during this period of time where Doug Ford is being frustrated not being invited to the is not being
00:10:39.960invited along to the trade talks with China, as well as the fact that he, you know, was not even informed
00:10:46.900about the deal that was made until hours before. The Conservatives, the federal Conservatives are now
00:10:52.040moving in to repair their relationship with Doug Ford. Now, it's not because there was some rift where
00:10:57.740Poliev had mistreated Doug Ford. In a lot of ways, it was because Doug Ford's just always been a liberal
00:11:02.840and he's just kind of always had friction with the far more conservative Pierre Poliev. But now that
00:11:07.780Mark Carney has mistepped with Doug Ford so much, you know, maybe the Conservatives and the and the
00:11:13.360Progressive Conservatives on Ontario aren't going to become, you know, lock arm allies. But Doug Ford's
00:11:18.840going to stay out of Poliev's way, potentially, if a 2026 snap election ends up occurring with Pierre
00:11:25.860Poliev promising to bring back the tariffs on Chinese EVs, or if not, just impose a moratorium
00:11:31.520on Chinese EVs entirely. But now that brings us over to the whiteboard here. We're going to first
00:11:37.920start off talking about the Ontario provincial election results from 2025. Then we're going to
00:11:43.680move on to the 2025 Canadian federal election results in Ontario, because it's very interesting to
00:11:51.340see the overlap between Ontario PC voters, Doug Ford voters, and Mark Carney voters. So let's just
00:11:59.900quickly go through the list here. In 2025, Doug Ford was able to win the provincial election very handily
00:12:08.320with 42.9% of the vote. I'm not going to round up because I got a lot of space today.
00:12:16.060Okay. And he absolutely demolished the Liberals who were led by Bonnie Crombie, who only ended up
00:12:22.420getting as a percentage of the vote, 29.97. I guess I could also go, I'm not going to go second
00:12:33.120digit. I'm not going to be, let's not be pretentious today, guys. Let's just stick to the
00:12:38.480other thing I'm going to, or I'm going to have to keep doing it. But we had 29.9% for the Liberals and
00:12:44.160Bonnie Crombie. Merritt Stiles and the Ontario NDP ended up having 18.5% of the vote, although
00:12:52.460they actually did better than the Liberals just simply because their vote was more efficient and
00:12:57.120was more targeted around that kind of urban Toronto GTA area, where the Liberals did better by more
00:13:03.780than 10 points, but it just wasn't resulting as many seats. They only ended up getting how many seats
00:13:09.100here, eight, and then the NDP got 31. So that's first past the post for you guys at times.
00:13:16.200But we had Mike Schreiner and the Greens in this election, not too bad for a Green party in Ontario,
00:13:22.660and they ended up getting 4.8% of the vote, and they ended up keeping the one seat they already had.
00:13:29.440And remember here, the Doug Ford Progressive Conservatives won 66 seats, and even then,
00:13:35.000an Independent won a seat, and that Independent was also Conservative. And then you even have the
00:13:40.980New Blue Party getting 1.6% of the vote, despite it being a snap election that they weren't fully
00:13:46.620organized for. So Ontario is a pretty Conservative province in terms of its vote. But the problem here
00:13:53.160is that although the Progressive Conservatives are doing well, and the more left-wing parties are down
00:13:57.740here, the Ontario Progressive Conservatives rely on a lot of federal Liberal voters. They're voting
00:14:04.100demographics tend to be older than the Federal Conservatives, and those older voters tend to
00:14:09.980be the overlap voters with the Federal Liberals, because we're going to be doing an analysis in
00:14:14.680the future, but generally speaking, voters 60 years old and older are disproportionately likely to vote
00:14:20.960Liberal, and more middle-aged, younger middle-aged voters are disproportionately likely to vote Conservative,
00:14:27.180except in Ontario, where Doug Ford does very well with 60-plus voters as well.
00:14:32.040But now let's look through the federal numbers and where Polyev and Mark Carney were in this last
00:14:38.520election, when it comes to Ontario specifically, of course. So, of course, the Liberals won Ontario in
00:14:45.940the last federal election with a decent margin over the Conservatives. They ended up winning Ontario
00:14:51.200with exactly 49% of the vote. That was followed by Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives getting 43.8% of the vote,
00:15:04.480and then we don't even need to... Are we going to throw the Greens in? I guess we can. But then we also had the NDP under Jagmeet Singh doing really, really bad in Ontario. They only got 4.9% of the vote, almost doing
00:15:20.880just as well as Mike Schreiner's Greens in the provincial election. And then Elizabeth May's Greens got 1.2% of the vote. They never ended up winning a seat in the election, but they ended up having one competitive seat that they put a lot of effort into in southwestern Ontario around, I think it was like the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo area. They had like one seat they were competing for.
00:15:44.340But notice this. Immediately, even though the Conservatives lost Ontario by 4.2%, they became 4.2% below the federal Liberals, they actually still had a higher number than the Ontario PC Party did in their provincial election where they were dominant.
00:16:04.720They actually got 0.9% more of the actual percentage of the vote than the Ontario PCs did. But the thing is, the Conservatives here, notice how the Liberals are at 49% and the Conservatives are at 43.8%, but the NDP is non-existent.
00:16:22.720Obviously, the vast majority of those provincial NDP voters, because the NDP was so pathetic in this last election, they mostly went towards the federal Liberals.
00:16:36.180Obviously, most provincial Liberals, went towards the federal Liberals. And then with Doug Ford's PCs, you would have had, I would say, around one-third of them, around 33% of this number, also went into getting the Liberals that 49% result.
00:16:54.720Now, considering that the NDP, under whoever ends up winning the NDP leadership, whether it's Heather McPherson or Avi Lewis, I think Rob Ashton just embarrassed himself recently.
00:17:06.020He can't win. Like, he was running against AI everywhere, and then he was using AI on his campaign. It's pathetic what he was doing.
00:17:13.120And it's either Avi Lewis or Heather McPherson. They're obviously not going to only get 4.9%, simply because they're not going to be as pathetic and simpering as Jagmeet Singh.
00:17:25.700So, if we are to assume these results holding firm, because if you've seen any recent Ontario election polls, this is pretty much what they still are like.
00:17:36.340They haven't budged an inch since the last provincial election. If we have, instead of the NDP getting 4.9%, let's just say getting 8%, and if we have the Doug Ford PCs giving maybe not an entire third of their vote to the federal Liberals,
00:17:53.160but maybe just a fifth of their vote to the federal Liberals, you could see a result where the federal Liberals end up underperforming this 49% result by quite a bit, maybe only coming in at 42 or so,
00:18:07.640and the Conservatives beating them in Ontario in a federal election, because it looks like that is currently where we are going.
00:18:18.220Doug Ford, if he starts siding against Mark Carney and saying that he's attacking working class voters, and that he is, you know, going to be flooding our markets with Chinese-made EVs that are spying on people,
00:18:31.960you're not going to have this big vote transfer the way that Mark Carney did in this last election.
00:18:37.100There's just not enough provincial Liberals and NDP voters for Mark Carney to win Ontario.
00:18:42.440He needs those PC voters, and this is a great way of turning those older Doug Ford PC Liberal Switch voters into federal Conservative Poly of voters in retaliation against Mark Carney's deal he made with the Chinese.
00:18:58.020In fact, I want to quickly clear this board, and then I'm going to bring up a data point from the recent Abacus data poll, which isn't the perfect poll,
00:19:06.840but it's already indicating that this is where polling may be going when it comes to Ontario.
00:19:12.440And now we're back with Abacus data's Ontario sample, and I want to demonstrate that this is already indicating a shift away from the Liberals in that province and towards the Conservatives,
00:19:24.960and this poll was conducted before the Chinese EV deal that Doug Ford ended up going after.
00:19:30.620So the current Abacus poll sample for Ontario, because obviously it's a federal sample, although pretty much all federal samples have a really big Ontario sample since it is the biggest province,
00:19:42.440Right now, Abacus data has their number 44% Liberal, so they are still leading, but they have the Conservatives at 43%, maintaining everything that they had in the last election at the very least,
00:19:59.000And like I was saying, they have the NDP at 8%, and we have the Greens even at 2%, and the PPC at 1%, which really, if the PPC is at 1%,
00:20:11.580It probably means that they're only going to get half a percent in the election, and you're going to see the Conservatives move up to 44%, or even 45%, because less PPC running isn't just you take the 1% for the PPC and give it to the Conservatives,
00:20:25.020is that you give the Conservatives at least 1%, plus all the PPC volunteers who are going to maybe be able to go out there and door knock and drive out another 1% or 2% of people.
00:20:35.560Like, even a sort of like a dead-on-arrival campaigns staff can make a bigger difference when you actually pool them with the party and the candidates that have a better chance of winning.
00:20:48.200But this is what their current Ontario sample looks like, and this is a result that would actually result probably in the Conservatives winning the majority of seats.
00:20:59.660Because remember, this number, the 44%, is going to be heavily concentrated in Toronto.
00:21:06.800So, the Conservatives do not win any Toronto seats, but what they do win is that they are competitive, although I'll say that the Liberals are good in the GTA as well.
00:21:19.700The thing is that the Conservatives are good in the North, the Southwest, they are good in the East, outside of Ottawa, and they are also good in the GTA.
00:21:30.420So, that's why we end up seeing 43% result in more seats for the Conservatives than the Liberals, because although Toronto is seat-rich,
00:21:41.280if that's all, if your 44% is concentrated to winning Toronto and most of the GTA and Ottawa,
00:21:47.800that means that there are literally dozens and dozens of more seats that are basically free and open to the Conservatives.
00:21:53.940And with 8% for the NDP, that actually may be them clawing back a couple of Toronto seats that they used to have back before the 2025 election.
00:22:03.560So, that's where we are right now when it comes to the whole situation in Ottawa, or Ontario.
00:22:10.300I think we are going to be seeing this fight between Doug Ford and Mark Carney heat up over the next little while,
00:22:16.220unless Mark Carney is just willing to write another big subsidy check to the Ontario auto sector, which is going to tick off a lot more people,
00:22:24.660I don't see them repairing their relationship.
00:22:27.580Doug Ford tends to be pretty vindictive.
00:22:29.780Remember, in the 2019 election, he was really put off by the fact that the then Conservative leader, Andrew Scheer, didn't want to campaign with him,
00:22:37.980and so had a chip on his shoulder going into the 2021 election, as well as the 2025 election,
00:22:44.680and now we're only coming off down the other side of that hill now, as he starts his new feud with the Liberals,
00:22:50.720for not talking to him about the Chinese EV tariff removal.
00:22:54.400Anyways, with that all being said, thank you guys for watching, like, share, subscribe, consider joining the channel membership program,