The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Why Mark Carney's Liberals Are Losing Ground Fast – Latest Polls

00:00:00 Good news, everybody. The polls look like they're showing that Canadians are finally starting to

00:00:05 sour on Prime Minister Mark Carney and the federal liberals. It turns out, making the guy who was a 0.63

00:00:12 really bad economic advisor to Justin Trudeau the next Prime Minister was not going to send our

00:00:19 economy into the stratosphere. In fact, as you already know, out of the last four quarters,

00:00:24 three quarters have had negative growth. And it's not just that that's causing the liberal polling

00:00:31 numbers to go down. It's also the self-inflicted conflict of interest scandals, the sluggish

00:00:37 movement when it comes to trade talks with the United States, and Mark Carney's flip-flopping

00:00:42 positions on different foreign policy issues. But I don't need to tell you guys about all the

00:00:47 problems. You already know about them. So in just a second, I want to get into what the polling

00:00:52 numbers look like and how it's going to affect upcoming by-elections like North Vancouver

00:00:57 Capilano. But before we get into the numbers, I just want to remind you guys, if you like the

00:01:01 show, make sure to leave a like on the video. Subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber. And

00:01:06 if you live in the federal riding of North Vancouver Capilano, I have a link pinned at

00:01:11 the top of the comments for Stephen Curran, the federal conservative candidate in that riding.

00:01:16 If you live there, make sure you get a lawn sign and try and volunteer if you can.

00:01:20 By-elections are crazy. Even though the Liberals had won this riding for the last four elections,

00:01:26 this is actually a fairly winnable by-election for the Conservatives. Jonathan Wilkinson is on

00:01:32 his way out. The NDP are on the rise again, which we will be getting into. And the Conservative

00:01:37 candidate is actually quite good for this area. I say is actually quite good because sometimes in

00:01:43 by-elections, parties just throw in who cares candidates not expecting to win. This is the guy

00:01:49 who ran last time. He was fairly formidable against the very popular Jonathan Wilkinson,

00:01:55 and now he's not going to have to run against Jonathan Wilkinson. It's just going to be some

00:01:58 other random liberal, giving him a real chance. Anyways, but now let's get into the polling

00:02:05 numbers that makes me pretty confident about a riding like North Vancouver Capilano,

00:02:09 at the very least for the Conservatives to gain in the polls in that riding.

00:02:15 This is the current national numbers out from liaison.

00:02:19 I don't even like this pollster because this pollster has a significant liberal lean,

00:02:26 and it's not even all that consistent.

00:02:27 I actually like polls that lean liberal quite a bit as long as the lean is consistent,

00:02:35 and in my own head I can say, okay, usually they over-poll the liberals by two,

00:02:39 under-poll the conservatives by two, and the bloc should maybe be one point higher.

00:02:43 Liaison, I find they can be all over the place, but even liaison now has the Liberals only

00:02:51 leading the Conservatives by 8%.

00:02:53 Now, 8% would still be a big majority government for the Liberals, but this is a pollster that

00:02:59 had previously been having the Liberals 13, 14% higher than the Conservatives, and over

00:03:05 the last few weeks, that lead has gone from double digits to just 8%, now making it so

00:03:11 that there are more professional polling companies showing the Liberals sub 10 than over 10 percent.

00:03:19 The only pollsters still showing the Liberals above 10 percent are like Nanos that are very

00:03:25 really just weird iffy numbers these days like where the Conservatives are only at like 30 percent

00:03:30 and the Liberals are at 45. I'm sorry even if Mark Carney is kind of popular right now you are just

00:03:37 not going to have any election ending up like that unless the Conservative leader like Pierre

00:03:43 Polyev gets replaced by like a criminal. You're not going to have the Conservatives ever become

00:03:47 that unpopular in a head-to-head election with the Liberals, which is what Canadian elections

00:03:52 have pretty much become outside of Quebec. But notice the arrows here on the right side.

00:03:59 Since the last poll, the Liberals are down one, the NDP is down one, and the Conservatives are up

00:04:05 two. And previously, the Conservatives had also gained another point or two in the last poll. So

00:04:11 in two weeks, the Conservatives are up like four points, the Liberals are down about three or four,

00:04:16 and the NDP is actually down about two or three points. This is shaping up very nicely for the

00:04:24 Conservatives, and I want to show you what the current numbers look like in a province like

00:04:28 British Columbia, where the North Vancouver Capilano by-election is going to be taking place.

00:04:34 Right now, this is where we've seen the most traumatic swing.

00:04:38 The Liberals are now actually sub 40% in British Columbia.

00:04:42 Remember, they and the Conservatives were around 42, 41 points in the last election.

00:04:47 They're at 39%, having taken a 4% hit since the last poll just done about a week ago.

00:04:53 Conservatives are up 4 points.

00:04:55 The NDP is up 1 point.

00:04:57 they're at 23 points, which is great for them, considering I believe they only had like 12% of

00:05:02 the vote in British Columbia last election. And the Greens are still sitting around 3%. And I

00:05:07 believe the Conservatives probably gained one of their extra points from the PPC and the NDP

00:05:12 probably gained their extra point from undecided voters or so, or one point from the Liberals and

00:05:18 the Conservatives gained one from the PPC. It doesn't really matter, though. Although this is

00:05:23 still a wider margin for the liberals than the last election had. It's still bad for the liberals

00:05:30 because naturally the liberals are losing a lot of votes in interior ridings back towards the

00:05:35 conservatives, making ridings like Kelowna far more winnable. At the same time, they're now going

00:05:40 to have to fend off the NDP in downtown area Vancouver ridings, as well as in places like

00:05:48 Victoria. This also helps people like Don Davies and Jenny Kwan have more stable ridings where they

00:05:54 are in Vancouver. And so this will actually have quite a significant impact on the North Vancouver

00:06:01 Capilano riding. Jonathan Wilkinson, the incumbent liberal, the liberal who has now resigned his seat

00:06:08 causing a by-election to probably happen sometime in August or September, made that riding safe.

00:06:15 It was previously held by the conservative, who actually held it for two terms, Andrew Saxton, who had won it from a liberal who held it for two terms, Don Bell.

00:06:25 But Don Bell had won that riding from a conservative who had held it since 1993 for the Reform Party.

00:06:32 That is a traditionally conservative riding before Jonathan Wilkinson had actually won it back in 2015.

00:06:40 Now, 2015 was 11 years ago.

00:06:42 It's been a while.

00:06:43 The riding has changed, and you could say it is more of a default Liberal riding right now.

00:06:48 But the Liberals only won it with like 62% of the vote in the last federal election,

00:06:53 because the NDP had fallen from their normal performance of 19% and 20% down to 4%.

00:07:01 Yes, 4%.

00:07:04 The NDP absolutely crashed in North Vancouver Capilano.

00:07:08 The good thing for the NDP, though, is that they now have a BC-based leader,

00:07:13 I know that Jagmeet Singh was technically BC-based, but he's not actually. He was from Brampton. He just simply moved out to BC looking for a riding. But the federal NDP leader is now Avi Lewis from Vancouver. They're going to invest a lot of money in this by-election.

00:07:30 Jonathan Wilkinson left basically declaring, like Stephen Gilboa, a partial betrayal by Mark Carney

00:07:36 against the green left climate zealots. And so there are a lot of votes for the NDP to pick back

00:07:44 up, especially public sector unions don't like Mark Carney because they will cry bloody murder

00:07:49 if you cut any public employees and you don't increase their pay enough. And although Mark

00:07:54 Carney is still definitely a liberal because he has slightly reduced the public service in some

00:07:59 areas, you are going to have a lot of the unions try and punish Mark Carney by flooding people

00:08:05 back towards the NDP in that riding. And then you get a lot of what I would call disconnected,

00:08:10 rich, greeny voters who are also now going to vote either Green Party or NDP because

00:08:15 Mark Carney is insufficiently climate zealous enough, even though he's never going to build

00:08:20 a pipeline, but because he talks too favorably about pipelines, they are now going to leave.

00:08:25 And pair this up with the Conservatives running the same candidate that they did last time, who has a generally pretty good reputation in the riding and still scored 36% in the last election, despite it being a very liberal-dominated riding, you actually have a very competitive race heating up here.

00:08:45 Overall, just to talk a little bit more about the polls, we are now seeing four pollsters showing the Liberals having fallen from 13% leads from pretty much all of them down to 5% and 8%.

00:08:59 And I really don't think that this next news cycle is going to be particularly favorable towards the Liberals.

00:09:06 They are only being hit with more conflict of interest scandals, more bad economic news.

00:09:11 yes, they got a bunch of jobs created during the summer. But the thing is that job numbers only

00:09:16 actually help a government's approval rating and polling if it's real, in the sense that you can

00:09:22 kind of fudge some good summer job numbers because it's the summer and there's a bunch of seasonal

00:09:27 work that always comes through. You can fudge some numbers by hiring people to do the census

00:09:31 and because FIFA is in town. But at the end of the day, when the average person in other parts

00:09:37 of Canada who aren't either doing the census or working at FIFA are still not getting jobs,

00:09:42 they're not going to start voting for the Liberal Party. This is the big problem that the Liberals

00:09:48 have. Yes, the media went out there for like a few weeks saying, well, we're not really in a

00:09:53 recession when you think about it. It's only a technical recession. Or is it even a technical

00:09:58 recession? Or is it just a sluggish economy? Well, you look at the polling from places like

00:10:03 abacus data, 57% of people say, yes, we are in a recession. Only 23% said no or not, leaving a

00:10:11 bunch of other people undecided. Undecideds tend to break the way that the vast majority of people

00:10:15 are already going. So you'd probably have most of those people say, yes, we are in a recession.

00:10:20 And even when you dug deeper into the numbers, only about a third of the people who said that

00:10:24 we're in a recession will blame Donald Trump. The rest of people blame Mark Carney's government

00:10:29 or Justin Trudeau's government being continued by Mark Carney.

00:10:34 The thing is that there is a lot of rot under the floorboards for the Carney liberals,

00:10:39 and I actually do believe conflict of interest scandals are going to be the death of them.

00:10:44 The bad economy is going to be what causes the liberals to never hit 50% of the vote.

00:10:49 They're always going to be at that kind of lower 40s position.

00:10:52 Not a bad position to be at, but they're never going to go stratospheric

00:10:56 because although there's a lot of happy talk, there's not actually sort of like the day-to-day

00:11:01 feeling of everything's loosening up and groceries are cheaper and I'm doing great at work. That's

00:11:06 not happening. So the happy talk from the media can only pump their numbers up so much. And as

00:11:12 soon as they have their own Doug Ford scandal with the gravy plane, where Doug Ford invested

00:11:17 like $50 million trying to get himself his own jet, which we can argue whether or not the

00:11:22 Premier of Ontario should have that or not. I actually think there's a good case that Premier

00:11:26 of Ontario should have a private plane. It just makes sense. But that ticked people off in Ontario

00:11:31 because it was a bad look after having been basically just completely incompetent with

00:11:37 spending everywhere else. That was the thing that was such a bad look. It finally cracked through

00:11:42 into Doug Ford's approvals, which were never great before, but he had an approval rating in the high

00:11:47 30s, low 40s, and it cratered to 21% after that moment. I think Carney not fully is in that

00:11:54 position right now, but partially in the position that his dealings with the Vancouver developers,

00:12:00 the Alto train, and some of these other minor scandals or with the Nova Scotia launch pad for

00:12:05 the space launch, is going to cause different pockets of voters around the country to start

00:12:12 saying, well, what's the point? That is so gross to them, to their political sensibilities,

00:12:17 that they're either going to go vote NDP conservative or they're just going to stay home

00:12:21 and this added on top of the fact the green left and the Hamas left are mad at Carney for being

00:12:27 insufficiently zealous even though he's not pro-Israel and he's not pro-pipeline he is just

00:12:32 simply walking a very foolish tightrope where he's pleasing absolutely nobody in doing what he's 0.80

00:12:38 doing still has high approvals but that's simply because well he's not Donald Trump well not being 0.80

00:12:43 Donald Trump didn't exactly make Justin Trudeau popular. It is possible to be deeply unpopular

00:12:49 with Donald Trump around, and Mark Carney shouldn't get too comfortable in the current

00:12:54 polling position that he is in because things can change as they currently are. Angus Reid

00:13:00 has the liberals only leading by five points. In an election cycle, if the conservatives battled

00:13:05 it back to just being 1% or 2%, they could win the election. The liberals did not win a majority

00:13:12 government this last time, despite winning the popular vote in the last election, by like 2.7%.

00:13:17 So if the conservatives can even dial that back to just 2%, they would actually probably win the

00:13:23 plurality of seats. It would be a minority government, not a very stable one, but that is

00:13:27 how sensitive the current liberal lead is. They get a lead mostly from doing really well in downtown

00:13:33 Toronto, in certain parts of Vancouver, in Montreal, and in certain parts of the Maritimes,

00:13:38 And everywhere else is a battleground. So the liberals slipping from 8%, 5%, 3% could actually end up having them lose the election because elbows up voters are hyper concentrated in certain other places. And people out in other parts of the country, more suburban, rural areas, do not care. It's a very urbanite type of a liberal ideology to be an elbows up liberal.

00:14:05 But anyways, now I just quickly want to show you guys something else that has nothing to do with this,

00:14:10 but it's just so annoying I had to bring it up.

00:14:14 So do you know what Midas Touch is?

00:14:17 There is something called Midas Canada, but do not be fooled by the fact that Canada is in the title.

00:14:23 Charlie Angus, the former NDP MP for Thunder Bay,

00:14:28 is now hosting this show for the Midas Canada network, the Midas Touch network, called The Resistance.

00:14:34 It is the most obnoxious progressive slop I have ever watched in my life.

00:14:41 He frequently has on Laura Babcock to his show.

00:14:44 And remember that Charlie Angus, Laura Babcock, and many of these other people

00:14:49 constantly complain that post-media is majority owned by Americans.

00:14:55 How can you trust them when they're owned by Americans? 0.93

00:14:58 This is the biggest irony of them all. 0.93

00:15:00 Charlie Angus is working for an American progressive front group.

00:15:06 That is what Midas touches.

00:15:07 It is a progressive left influencing network.

00:15:11 And this guy is making some of the worst videos I've ever seen.

00:15:15 And suspiciously, you will notice in these videos titled in all caps,

00:15:20 Kick Kristi Nolom the F out of Canada.

00:15:23 This has 116,000 views in six days.

00:15:27 This is some of the worst content I've ever seen in my life,

00:15:31 and I'm so suspicious that they are being artificially boosted on YouTube

00:15:35 through the connections of Midas Touch.

00:15:37 Now, maybe this is just turning into me complaining about my own video numbers,

00:15:41 but the fact that this has viewership is shocking to me.

00:15:45 Hey there, Midas Canada viewers, resistors from all over, Charlie Angus here.

00:15:49 Bonjour à tous, mes amis.

00:15:51 On today's episode, we're following up the conversation that we began last week,

00:15:55 calling on the Midas Mighty.

00:15:57 all of our supporters across Canada and around the world to work together to organize and take 0.98

00:16:02 the fight to Kristi Noem and to kick her toxic rear end out of our country. She has no business 0.98

00:16:10 working for a Canadian copper mining company. Why did she have no business? They're allowed

00:16:17 to hire whoever they want. Now, I'm going to get into just what this show is in just a second here,

00:16:22 but he's just a fascist. Let's just be clear. There are so many NDP politicians, activists 0.95

00:16:31 who are fascists, and I'm not using that as a pejorative. Fascism literally means trade unionism.

00:16:37 That is what it means in Italian because the Italians back in the 1910s and 1920s called

00:16:43 their unions, their trade unions, fascio. So fascism is trade unionism. This guy is a fascist.

00:16:51 If you disagree with him, he doesn't like Kristi Noem because she helped head up Homeland Security for Donald Trump for a while. 0.96

00:16:57 I didn't even particularly like her as the Secretary of Homeland Security.

00:17:01 I didn't think she was really good on messaging. 1.00

00:17:03 I thought she was a little bit too into theatrics and not actually getting her job done.

00:17:07 I like the guy who's currently in that role far better right now.

00:17:10 But what gives Charlie Angus the right to be demanding that she be removed from the country

00:17:15 and not be allowed to be employed or contracted by a Canadian copper mine

00:17:20 because he doesn't like her well she doesn't fit in with his progressive vision of canada so i guess

00:17:26 that she must be marginalized how this is far more of a foreign interference risk than all of

00:17:35 the fear-mongering that charlie angus frequently does about the albertus separatist movement being

00:17:41 foreign backed yes there are some russian ai youtube channels trying to promote uh trying to

00:17:46 promote separatism. I actually really doubt it has anything to do with foreign interference.

00:17:50 That probably just seems like somebody creating AI slop channels to make money. I'm sorry,

00:17:55 there's the American, the mythical American money backing Alberta separatism isn't going to change

00:18:01 public opinion. I understand the separatist movement. I understand all the arguments for

00:18:05 an independent Alberta. I'm not a pro-independence guy, but I'm also not an irrational, crazy person

00:18:10 like Charlie Angus setting my hair on fire about how Kristi Noem and the Americans and the Russians

00:18:15 are all in bed trying to create a plot with the separatist movement to have Alberta annexed into

00:18:22 the United States. No, no, it's stupid. But this show somehow is getting hundreds of thousands of 1.00

00:18:31 views, while it is some of the most badly made commentary I've ever seen. If you actually

00:18:37 choke through these videos, it's just him rambling. And you could say, well, why? You're

00:18:43 just rambling i actually cite numbers i can cite stories and explain to an average human being

00:18:50 what it means and what i think about it this is just paranoid progressive slop and somehow it's

00:18:57 being very very heavily boosted in canada right now in copper mining company needs to explain

00:19:03 why they think having christy gnome working for them is in anybody's interest so we've been shining

00:19:08 a light on them and the light is starting to break through and it is starting to have an effect and

00:19:15 we have just begun this fight because you know what there's no room for christy noem in canada 1.00

00:19:19 there's no room for a woman like that miss concentration camp guard herself anywhere 0.99

00:19:24 except maybe in jail so let's oh she should be in jail so he calls her miss concentration camp 1.00

00:19:31 at the same time he then says in the next few words that she should be in jail though 0.61

00:19:36 it's so funny having him mention concentration camps since he is a big enjoyer of Hamas killing

00:19:44 Jews in Israel that's always the funniest thing about these progressive people who get who like

00:19:49 clutch their pearls about ICE removing illegal uh immigrants from the from America we probably 0.85

00:19:54 should have our own version of ICE because we have hundreds of thousands of people not leaving

00:19:58 the country but Angus or Charlie Angus would consider that a disgusting crime against humanity

00:20:03 to remove illegal aliens from your country, but he is going to excuse and boost and promote 0.93

00:20:11 the activities of Hamas, killing people basically for being Jews, for not being Islamists because 0.99

00:20:18 they'll shoot their own people for not being sufficiently radical. He's just such a piece 0.99

00:20:23 of human debris. And this guy is, again, if you actually look at the channel with some of the

00:20:29 most atrocious thumbnails I've ever seen in my life. This guy is scoring massive viewership on

00:20:35 pretty much every single video. 124,000, 45,000, 71,000, 19,000, 66, 117, 34, 30. And some of these

00:20:45 other ones have like basically no viewership, which indicates that that's probably what the

00:20:49 actual viewership should be. But the Midas Network from America being funded by Americans

00:20:55 is promoting progressive slop in Canada, probably to undermine the popularity of,

00:21:01 not that he was ever popular, but try and basically undermine even more so the relationship

00:21:08 between Canadians and Americans based on Donald Trump, because that helps out the liberals.

00:21:15 And by keeping liberals installed in Canada, it hurts Donald Trump's ability to operate and

00:21:20 and form alliances around the world. I think that's what's going on here, because it's so

00:21:25 suspicious that Charlie Angus, the anti-American, is working with a progressive left group in the

00:21:31 United States. Are they funding him? Are they providing him editors and all this other stuff?

00:21:36 Is he paying for any of this? Because if not, this seems like it's foreign interference,

00:21:40 because Midas, Midas Canada, the Midas Touch Network, is not registered as a third-party

00:21:45 advertiser in Canada. And yet they're putting out daily propaganda videos that seem to have

00:21:51 no real commentary value, but are being significantly boosted on the algorithm with

00:21:57 really, really shoddy content. A bunch of the videos don't even have Charlie Angus barely in

00:22:02 them. He'll be in the first two minutes giving his copy-paste intro. And then it cuts to some

00:22:07 random other woman interviewing a really boring guest about a topic I don't think anyone would

00:22:12 actually sit through, and somehow it has like 70,000 views. And he's being invited to have

00:22:19 grassroots talks with the Alberta Teachers Association and with other union groups that

00:22:24 are probably also sharing this content. This whole thing feels like artificial astroturf

00:22:30 to try and keep Canada just like white-knuckling the progressivism for the next decade so we ignore

00:22:37 all the problems that Mark Carney, the liberals, and the NDP end up causing in this country.

00:22:42 Just keep people focused on Donald Trump bad,

00:22:45 Kristi Noem bad, Daniel Smith bad, 0.99

00:22:47 separatists are going to try and kill you in your sleep 1.00

00:22:50 so you better be prepared. 0.85

00:22:51 This is what they want Canadians to be like mainlining 1.00

00:22:55 in order to keep us voting the stupid ways 1.00

00:22:57 that we're currently voting. 0.98

00:22:59 Anyways, with all that being said,

00:23:01 thank you guys for watching.

00:23:02 Just another reminder,

00:23:04 if you don't like the insane progressivism

00:23:07 of the NDP and the liberals

00:23:08 and you live in the riding of North Vancouver Capilano,

00:23:11 Get yourself a lawn sign for Stephen Curran if you even live close by North Vancouver

00:23:15 Capilano riding.

00:23:17 See if you can volunteer.

00:23:19 Volunteers really do move votes in these ridings.

00:23:21 And in by-elections, turnouts are weird.

00:23:23 Very few people vote in by-elections.

00:23:25 And if the conservatives really rip the doors off the hinges in that riding, they can win

00:23:29 it back from the liberals.

00:23:31 And that can start a cascading effect.

00:23:33 Sometimes upset by-election victories end up kind of shifting the narrative in many

00:23:38 people's minds, and they start to give a second look at the conservative party, maybe when they

00:23:43 were just going to default vote for who they voted for last time. And if that wasn't conservative,

00:23:47 it's not really great for us. Anyways, with all that being said, thank you guys for watching,

00:23:51 like, share, subscribe, and I'll see you all later.

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The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 29, 2026

Why Mark Carney's Liberals Are Losing Ground Fast – Latest Polls

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