00:00:00.040Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back for some more polling time on the whiteboard.
00:00:06.080Today we will be discussing whether or not the Pierre Pauly of conservatives can flip a liberal riding in the upcoming by-elections.
00:00:14.640Although the Mark Carney liberals are ahead in all of the national polls right now, that lead has been diminished over time,
00:00:21.940And based on the different micro-political climates around the country, I do believe the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election is an opportunity for the Conservatives to at least gain on the Liberals, if not come up the middle and win the by-election.
00:00:37.880We will be getting into some new regional numbers that we have for British Columbia that are favorable for the Conservatives, and I want to talk about the overall national trends that are both bad for the Conservatives and good for the Conservatives in different instances.
00:00:54.900But before I get into the numbers, I just want to remind you guys, if you like the show,
00:00:58.680make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber,
00:01:03.060consider leaving a comment on what you think about all of this, and of course, if you live
00:01:07.400in the riding of North Vancouver Capilano, consider getting a lawn sign for the conservative
00:01:12.260candidate Stephen Curran. I actually met with him when he was in Calgary for the Stampede briefly,
00:01:17.780really nice guy, so if you live in that area, make sure to register for a lawn sign at the link
00:01:22.980pinned at the top to comments. And if you just live in the general Vancouver area, consider doing
00:01:28.300some volunteering for Stephen Curran. Hustle really does pay off in by-elections because
00:01:33.700the turnout rate is way lower. And so if your people are motivated and the liberals aren't,
00:01:39.460you absolutely can win the riding back. This used to be a conservative riding before Jonathan
00:01:44.840Wilkinson. And now that he is gone, I believe we are going to see a very different type of liberal
00:01:50.820turn out than when he was still around. Anyways, we are going to first start off with the numbers
00:01:57.760from a new Abacus Data poll. We're going to start off with Abacus Data, then we're going to jump
00:02:03.880into liaison. They give very different numbers for British Columbia regionally, but they both agree
00:02:10.140that the Conservatives and Liberals are much tighter than they were just a couple of months
00:02:14.460ago. So right now, Abacus Data has the Liberal Party of Canada in British Columbia at 42% of the
00:02:25.560vote. Now, that's one point better than they did in the federal election, so they probably don't
00:02:31.320feel too bad about this. The problem is that the Conservatives have pretty much maintained where
00:02:36.560they were previously at. They had 40% of the vote in the last election, and they are currently
00:02:41.460sitting at 38%, which is not that bad considering nationally the Liberals are leading by about five
00:02:50.500to eight points depending on the polls that you look at. So the trend of Liberals increasing a
00:02:56.340lead since the last election has not really taken place as much in British Columbia based on the
00:03:02.640pollster you look at. The NDP in this one, Abaca's data is a little bit more kind of cold on the NDP,
00:03:10.720but I believe this might be because of a slight outlier result with the Greens, as I'm about to
00:03:15.540get into. So right now, the NDP and the Abacus data poll are sitting at just 12%, which is
00:03:23.060effectively what they were at in the last federal election. And the Greens are at 7%, which is
00:03:30.760probably a big overpoll for them, considering I believe they were only at 2% or 3% in all of
00:03:37.160British Columbia in the last federal election. All of that mainly concentrated just in Elizabeth
00:03:43.640May's riding and maybe a little bit scattered around where the provincial green ridings also
00:03:48.920are, but pretty much only in Saanich and the Gulf Islands. So this is actually a big change since
00:03:56.240the last abacus data poll. The last abacus data poll also had the federal liberals leading by
00:04:01.9608%. But in their last poll, or compared to their last poll, or actually, no, no, it's the liaison
00:04:08.760one that's way different. This one is a smaller change. Basically, Liberals are exactly where
00:04:13.900they were in the last poll. NDP is. The Greens are up four points. That's why I think it's a bit
00:04:19.880of an outlier. Seeing them up four points is pretty insane. I think it's actually probably
00:04:24.920the NDP more at around 16 or 17 points, because that's what other pollsters have been showing,
00:04:30.580them punching up into the high teens or even low 20s. But the Conservatives were one point up in
00:04:37.180this poll. Now, the pipeline announcement with Daniel Smith could hurt the Conservatives,
00:04:42.960but the microclimate of North Vancouver-Capilano is so much different than if you were running a
00:04:49.140by-election, let's say, on North Vancouver Island, North Island-Powell River, where Aaron Gunn is.
00:04:57.000If he dropped out and there was a by-election, the Liberals could actually have more of a chance
00:05:01.260in a riding like that because the pipeline announcement would make Mark Carney seem
00:05:05.960very moderate. If you were in Kelowna, Mark Carney would seem more moderate with the pipeline
00:05:10.900proposal and the Liberals would maybe win that riding back by a bigger margin than they wanted
00:05:15.460in 2025. North Vancouver Capiland is very different. It's an extremely high income riding
00:05:21.960compared to the rest of the province. You know, maybe outside of like Yale town or something like
00:05:26.460that. But the pipeline announcement may end up hurting the liberals because you have a lot of
00:05:31.920people who vote for, frankly, luxury beliefs. They are voting because they are very wealthy
00:05:38.280and they can vote for basically pie in the sky green policies because they're really not going
00:05:43.460to hurt them that much. That doesn't actually define everyone in the riding people. Riding
00:05:48.260to riding tend to be more similar than they are different. But there is a significant portion of
00:05:53.640the Liberal vote from this riding, who liked the Green politics of the former incumbent Jonathan
00:05:58.900Wilkinson, who may end up defecting towards the NDP or even the Greens. I'm going to go over what
00:06:05.220the last election's results were towards the end of this video, but just to give you a preview,
00:06:10.460the NDP did terrible in 2025, but in previous elections they used to punch nearby 20% of the
00:06:16.920vote, but only got 4% last time. So this is what Abacus data is showing regionally. It's pretty
00:06:23.780tight with basically a little bit of a boost on the left for the green left, which I believe is
00:06:30.300mostly going to end up with the NDP, because Avi Lewis and the NDP are going to hit the ground hard
00:06:35.380because Avi needs to prove the NDP are back under him, and they're no longer only going to be
00:06:40.760punching 4% in a riding like North Vancouver, Napolano anymore. So in just a second here,
00:06:46.540I'm going to erase the numbers, and then we're going to talk about what liaison now is showing
00:06:52.220in British Columbia. Okay, we are back. And actually, before I start writing down some of
00:06:58.760the numbers on the board, I also want to make my erasing a little bit nicer looking. Hopefully,
00:07:03.020this is all positive ASMR experience for you guys. Before I start going into the numbers,
00:07:07.260I do want to mention why this by-election has not been called yet. I didn't mention that,
00:07:11.460but none of the by-elections have been called yet. We were thinking they're going to take place
00:07:15.940in August, but as the kind of date gets drawn out, we might be into September or at the very
00:07:21.420least late August when the actual by-elections are called for. I believe the reason Prime
00:07:26.260Minister Mark Carney has been holding it back, as you may know from my previous video, although
00:07:31.280YouTube did a terrible job promoting it, that's why it's good to become a member of the channel
00:07:35.160so I'm not scraping along sometimes with videos only getting like 4,000 views because YouTube
00:07:40.260just dictated that no one should watch this video. But anyways, Mark Carney gave a Senate
00:07:46.100appointment to a sitting Conservative MP, Richard Mantle, who represents the riding in Quebec of
00:07:53.300Chico Timi Le Fjord. Now, this riding is like a three-way split between the Bloc and the Liberals
00:08:01.080and the Conservatives. Obviously, the Conservatives won it last time, 34% of the vote. Bloc got 31,
00:08:06.300liberals got 31 now maybe the liberals won't do as well as they expect in a by-election because
00:08:12.080that was actually kind of an outlier result for them to get as high as 31 they're usually around
00:08:15.76019 but Prime Minister Carney has been likely holding back the by-elections knowing he was
00:08:21.400going to effectively politically bribe Richard Mantle into taking an easy senate appointment job
00:08:27.600and you know doesn't have to run for re-election can sit there basically doing nothing for a very
00:08:32.100high salary for a long time, hanging out, not really doing anything substantial. And then he
00:08:37.820could package that by-election up with all the other ones. So even though he could have called
00:08:42.040the other ones like a month ago, he's been basically sitting on it, waiting for Richard
00:08:45.920Mantle to finally take that appointment before he could basically, you know, spook the conservatives,
00:08:51.480you know, blindside them that there's a by-election happening in one of the federal
00:08:55.580ridings that they actually have a chance of taking away from the conservatives. But now let's get
00:09:01.680into what the liaison numbers are saying for British Columbia overall. So they have the
00:09:08.320Liberals down a couple points from where Abacus has them. They have the Liberals currently sitting
00:09:14.120with 39% of the vote. 39%. The Conservatives are actually a little bit further back from where
00:09:24.080Abacus data had them, but in a certain sense they're actually closer based on where the mix
00:09:29.680of left-wing votes are currently going. The Conservative Party in the liaison poll is
00:09:35.560currently at 34%. So they are five points down from the Liberals rather than only three points
00:09:43.560in the abacus poll. But the reason why this one actually might be better for the Conservatives
00:09:49.200than the liaison poll is the NDP have come back with a bit of a vengeance in this one,
00:09:54.880sitting at 25% regionally in British Columbia. I think probably the truth is somewhere between
00:10:04.520the two results. This one also only has the Greens at 1%, which is a big discrepancy from where the
00:10:12.660Abacus data poll had them at. But here is why I'm thinking that this one might be better for
00:10:20.220the Conservatives than the Abacus one. The 25% for the NDP is concentrated typically on Vancouver
00:10:28.540Island's Victoria area, Mid-Island, there's some up in the northwest in that bulky valley area where
00:10:36.420Nathan Cullen used to be, the Conservative MP, and also of course there's quite a bit of NDP vote
00:10:42.960around the Vancouver area. The NDP only got 4% of the vote in the last federal election.
00:10:50.900Previously, in this riding, they were usually more at like 18, 19, 22% of the vote. And so,
00:10:57.860if this poll is right, that probably means Avi Lewis not only is going to be dumping a lot of
00:11:04.020money and campaigning hard in this riding to prove that the NDP is more robust under his
00:11:08.440leadership compared to the previous leadership or lack thereof of leadership of Jagmeet Singh.
00:11:13.260But also, there just seems to be a sort of an organic blowing towards the NDP right now,
00:11:19.760probably because this is a riding where people have the money in order to oppose pipelines,
00:11:25.540no matter what the project is. I don't actually think Carney's all that serious about building
00:11:29.940a pipeline. If he was, we wouldn't be on a 10 plus year timeline to complete one on the southern
00:11:35.240route, we'd be getting it done in three years. It's deliberately going to take a long time because
00:11:39.200his heart's not really in it. But regardless, rhetorically speaking, people in North Vancouver,
00:11:44.040Capilano, the average voter, probably assumes Carney's serious about it, which will probably
00:11:49.260fuel an NDP, a rise in the NDP vote or the Green vote, because Carney has betrayed them and
00:11:55.260partnered with fascist, Maple, MAGA, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. I think that is something
00:12:01.760that's going to happen. And if Avi Lewis campaigns hard, he's going to take some of those big liberal
00:12:07.080vote banks away. And again, by-elections tend to bring out the most zealous voters, the most
00:12:12.880conservative of conservatives, and liberal of liberals, and NDP of NDPers. So you're going to
00:12:18.620have a lot of the hardcore NDP who voted liberal in the last election just to block Yeropaliev and
00:12:25.220the conservatives, potentially going back NDP because there's no stakes. If the conservatives
00:12:30.460win this by-election, doesn't really matter, and they're all mad at Carney for not being, you know,
00:12:35.540anti-pipeline. So this is kind of a weird slurry, this weird mix that Carney is in. He's done
00:12:41.880something in that, in theory, should make him more popular in certain parts of British Columbia,
00:12:45.580but in an environment like North Vancouver Capilano could make him less popular. But now I
00:12:52.260just want to show you how the polls have adjusted in this one since the last British Columbia poll.
00:12:58.480So right now, the Conservatives have risen by a couple points in this poll from the last liaison poll, and the NDP has gone up by two points, with the Greens having fallen by two points, which seems pretty sensible based on how low they currently are.
00:13:17.480They must have lost something somewhere. And the Liberals have basically just held still at 39% of the vote, a few points down from where they were at last election. Of course, the Conservatives are also down. But again, the way that this polling mix is going to kind of result in, the way that the regional numbers will work, is that this is probably going to be a much more elevated gain for the NDP in British Columbia in this by-election compared to if the election was held in Kelowna.
00:13:45.300The election was held in Kelowna. I think you're going to see an NDP getting less than 10% of the
00:13:49.480vote. North Vancouver Capilano, I think they're probably going to be above at least 15% of the
00:13:54.960vote. And if Stephen Curran can maintain the 33% he had in the last federal election and maybe push
00:14:02.480out a couple more voters relative to what the turnout looks like, he could be around 38%,
00:14:07.82040% of the vote. Again, turnouts and by-elections really matter. That's why you should volunteer
00:14:12.960your forum and put out a lawn sign because lawn signs tend to at least one lawn sign tends to
00:14:18.380adjust the vote of one other person on your block they look at how bill or or vanessa's voting and
00:14:24.180they're like well maybe i'll vote conservative too or at the very least a liberal on the block
00:14:28.780thinks oh wow there's lots of stephen curran signs around maybe my guy's not going to win and they
00:14:33.500don't show up that is why it's always very important to get a lawn sign i've heard from
00:14:38.500uh the stephen curran team since i've been mentioning the lawn signs they have actually
00:14:42.200bad elevated sign up numbers. And I hope that they can get 1000 lawn signs around that riding
00:14:47.320is that is a great robust looking campaign that can win a by election because normal turnouts in
00:14:53.280this riding last federal election, I'm actually going to look at it right now. Turnout in this
00:14:58.340riding was actually quite high compared to previous to other ridings. Overall, it was like 68%
00:15:05.320turnout in Canada. This one had 71%. But if you know, by election turnouts, they can sometimes
00:15:11.440be as low as 15% of people voting. Now this one's competitive, so I could see it being 35%,
00:15:18.04045% of people voting, but if every conservative or 80, 90% of the conservatives who voted in the
00:15:24.840federal election show up to vote conservative again, that could end up being 53% plus of the
00:15:31.560amount of people who actually vote. It's all about turnout, getting out the door, and actually
00:15:37.020voting. But now I just want to show you where the exact numbers were at in the last federal
00:15:41.940election, just so you can see my point about the NDP. I'm not sure if we have spending numbers out
00:15:48.360yet, but I want to also see how much the NDP end up spending here, because if they basically didn't
00:15:53.260spend anything, that will indicate what them spending some substantial amount of money is
00:15:57.360actually going to do to the overall vote percentages. Actually, I'm just going to pause
00:16:01.820because this marker stuff is not coming off as easily, but I will be back as soon as I hit
00:16:07.880unpause. Magic. I'm back, as I said, after I unpaused. Okay, so we're going to be going over
00:16:14.540what each of the parties got in the 2025 federal election. Then I also want to show you what they
00:16:19.200ended up getting back in the 2021 election with the redistributed results based on the new riding
00:16:25.120boundaries since the 21 election. So back in 2025, Jonathan Wilkinson, who was a very popular
00:16:31.120incumbent, oftentimes certain incumbents can make a riding safe. He ended up getting, I'm not going
00:16:36.740to show in the bar chart kind of version, I'll just kind of write it on top and then below will
00:16:41.200be the 2021 numbers. He ended up getting 59.8% of the vote in the last federal election. Again,
00:16:50.940he'd been around since 2015. He was good at marrying what I would call the green left and
00:16:56.740the business liberals together in order to basically start savaging both the Green and
00:17:01.640the NDPs vote. And in this last federal election, there was a whole elbows up moment where all the
00:17:06.880NDPs and many of the Greens just voted liberal to block the conservatives because, you know,
00:17:11.980that's how voting should work. Voting for compromise to spite other people, you know,
00:17:16.860great way to live your life. But in this last provincial, the federal election, Stephen Curran
00:17:22.140and the Conservatives actually got 33.6% of the vote, which is quite good for the Conservatives
00:17:29.620in this federal riding, at least since they had been previously winning it since before Jonathan
00:17:35.340Wilkinson. The NDP only got 4.2% of the vote in North Vancouver Capilano, and the Greens got 1.7%,
00:17:48.160which is really sad for the NDP, considering the Greens maintained their vote better than the NDP
00:17:54.780did. Yes, they're lower, but they didn't lose nearly as large a portion of their vote as the
00:17:59.760NDP did. That was a 14.8% downgrade for the NDP. So that's with 71% turnout. In 2021,
00:18:10.660Jonathan Wilkinson had gotten 44 percent, 44.6 percent of the vote. So maybe I'll just quickly
00:18:19.980denote that right here is 2025, 25, and this is 21, 2021. The conservative candidate who was not
00:18:33.080Stephen Curran ended up getting 29.3 percent of the vote, but I don't think the conservatives
00:18:38.260really tried that hard in this riding when I look at, oh, no, they actually kind of did, but, you
00:18:44.000know, it was Erin O'Toole's conservative, so I can't really blame people for not showing up for
00:18:48.260them. Then the NDP in 2021, based on the new boundaries, had gotten 19.05% of the vote, with
00:18:59.020the Greens having captured 4.27% of the vote. And back then, the PPC had also had like two and a
00:19:06.100half points so no doubt if they weren't around and Aaron O'Toole wasn't such a dud of a leader
00:19:11.080conservatives probably would have been punching more into like the mid 30s or so and they had
00:19:16.1004.27 percent here so but this is remembering with on top here the elbows up moment where the left
00:19:25.840consolidated around the liberals to stop the conservatives with Jonathan Wilkinson around
00:19:30.800as the incumbent. And down here, this is with the COVID election, where the people who have
00:19:37.340luxury beliefs in the North Vancouver Capilano area, who are like scared of COVID, and they
00:19:42.700think the conservatives want everyone infected with COVID and whatnot, other nonsense, what was
00:19:47.200going on, even though the conservatives under O'Toole were pathetic on COVID. They were also
00:19:51.460voting liberal because it was kind of like the default good person thing to do then. And Aaron
00:19:57.060O'Toole's conservatives were complete flops, but that was a little bit closer overall. But now
00:20:02.820with the numbers the way they are, with the NDP coming back in a big way, I think what we're going
00:20:09.920to see is based on turnout, if the conservatives can really hit the doors in this riding and push
00:20:16.640Stephen Curran, if he can maintain that the numbers that he had to get that 33.1%, so to give
00:20:23.500you specific numbers for this. Stephen Curran last election got 21,339 votes. Liberals, Jonathan
00:20:30.220Wilkinson had 37,909. If Stephen Curran can just basically get out probably 20,000, 19,000 voters,
00:20:40.320he can probably win the riding. It's just about maintaining the numbers of voters that he had
00:20:45.680last federal election in order to beat whoever the Liberals have picked. And I believe the who
00:20:51.380they picked is some random Ottawa staffer who at least hasn't lived in the riding for over a decade
00:20:57.880at this point. So Stephen Curran already has kind of that, you know, native son of the soil kind of
00:21:04.220advantage over the person the Liberals have picked. Liberals are going to have a problem getting the
00:21:08.680green left on board for voting for them. Avi Lewis is going to throw a lot more money at this riding
00:21:13.580than he had previously done. Like the NDP, even when they were getting 19% of the vote, were only
00:21:18.380spending $20,000 here, compared to the Liberals and the Conservatives, like over $100,000. So if
00:21:24.440Avi Lewis spends like $40,000, $50,000 here, and with the organic pushback towards the NDP and away
00:21:31.580from the Liberals, I think they could get at least 15% of the vote. And if that ends up happening,
00:21:36.660and Conservatives can just maintain what they had, and then by-election turnout ends up being
00:21:41.340lower, there is actually a good chance, at the very least, of heavily chipping away at the Liberal
00:21:46.600lead, if not potentially coming up the middle and winning the seat. I'm not predicting the
00:21:51.800Conservatives are going to win. You don't really want to get into the prediction business when it
00:21:55.320comes to by-election outcomes in these kind of swingy type ridings. But if the Conservatives
00:22:01.160and Polyev can demonstrate that they are reducing the Liberal leads in some of these ridings,
00:22:07.060I think it is going to give Canadians that second look at the Polyev Conservatives and be willing
00:22:12.940to kind of hear them out and seeing them as a substantial force against the Carney liberals
00:22:17.220because so much of what the media has been doing is trying to count out the poly of conservatives
00:22:21.880so that voters will stop considering them. Your new father is Mark Carney and you can
00:22:26.740look at no other party other than his because we have declared he is the popular party and
00:22:31.980the poly of conservatives are the unpopular party. So if the conservatives can smash that
00:22:37.040narrative, it will help them a lot with all of the dumb sort of leadership questions around
00:22:42.180poly of all the conservatives can't win the conservatives are unpopular if they narrow this
00:22:47.540even just to losing by five points rather than the previously large margin it is so much the
00:22:54.180better for the poly of conservatives because they can point out hey this used to be a safe liberal
00:22:58.420riding under jonathan wilkinson and we got pretty close in the by-election there are people not
00:23:03.220exactly jibing with what mark carney is currently doing they're mad at the slow progress on pretty
00:23:08.900much anything he's actually promised around trade in the economy and all of his supposed successes
00:23:14.100like the pipeline announcement are all things that aren't even going to be done for like a decade or
00:23:19.060more and then if you consider the fact that the musk we meant to wasser and all the other first
00:23:23.540nations along the area 108 of them are going to have potential veto powers over the southern
00:23:28.500route pipeline do we really trust that we're going to get this thing done on any timeline that would
00:23:35.380be considered you know realistic or can be considered even like somewhat you know achievable
00:23:42.660not even achievable i'm trying to find the word like respectable building a pipeline in 10 years
00:23:49.860is like cool consolation prize we were severely under capacity in how much oil we were shipping
00:23:55.940before and in 10 years even adding a million barrels will be seen as like a small drop in
00:24:01.940the bucket compared to what other countries are able to achieve even just what texas alone is able
00:24:07.940to achieve in terms of exportation anyways with all that being said thank you guys for watching
00:24:14.420this video make sure to like share subscribe consider making consider getting a lawn sign for
00:24:19.620steven kern if you live in the riding of north vancouver capilano volunteer for him if you can
00:24:24.820even if you just put in one day it really makes a difference hustle name recognition getting lawn
00:24:30.980signs out makes a massive difference in these by-elections because the lawn signs on people's
00:24:36.380actual personal property tends to set the narrative for the neighborhood of what party is in control
00:24:42.380of the election in this area and which one is not. Anyways, with all that being said,
00:24:47.560thank you guys for watching. I'll see you all later.