The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Will Pierre Poilievre Win a Liberal Seat in BC？ Latest Polls Show Tight Race

00:00:00.040 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back for some more polling time on the whiteboard.

00:00:06.080 Today we will be discussing whether or not the Pierre Pauly of conservatives can flip a liberal riding in the upcoming by-elections.

00:00:14.640 Although the Mark Carney liberals are ahead in all of the national polls right now, that lead has been diminished over time,

00:00:21.940 And based on the different micro-political climates around the country, I do believe the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election is an opportunity for the Conservatives to at least gain on the Liberals, if not come up the middle and win the by-election.

00:00:37.880 We will be getting into some new regional numbers that we have for British Columbia that are favorable for the Conservatives, and I want to talk about the overall national trends that are both bad for the Conservatives and good for the Conservatives in different instances.

00:00:54.900 But before I get into the numbers, I just want to remind you guys, if you like the show,

00:00:58.680 make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber,

00:01:03.060 consider leaving a comment on what you think about all of this, and of course, if you live

00:01:07.400 in the riding of North Vancouver Capilano, consider getting a lawn sign for the conservative

00:01:12.260 candidate Stephen Curran. I actually met with him when he was in Calgary for the Stampede briefly,

00:01:17.780 really nice guy, so if you live in that area, make sure to register for a lawn sign at the link

00:01:22.980 pinned at the top to comments. And if you just live in the general Vancouver area, consider doing

00:01:28.300 some volunteering for Stephen Curran. Hustle really does pay off in by-elections because

00:01:33.700 the turnout rate is way lower. And so if your people are motivated and the liberals aren't,

00:01:39.460 you absolutely can win the riding back. This used to be a conservative riding before Jonathan

00:01:44.840 Wilkinson. And now that he is gone, I believe we are going to see a very different type of liberal

00:01:50.820 turn out than when he was still around. Anyways, we are going to first start off with the numbers

00:01:57.760 from a new Abacus Data poll. We're going to start off with Abacus Data, then we're going to jump

00:02:03.880 into liaison. They give very different numbers for British Columbia regionally, but they both agree

00:02:10.140 that the Conservatives and Liberals are much tighter than they were just a couple of months

00:02:14.460 ago. So right now, Abacus Data has the Liberal Party of Canada in British Columbia at 42% of the

00:02:25.560 vote. Now, that's one point better than they did in the federal election, so they probably don't

00:02:31.320 feel too bad about this. The problem is that the Conservatives have pretty much maintained where

00:02:36.560 they were previously at. They had 40% of the vote in the last election, and they are currently

00:02:41.460 sitting at 38%, which is not that bad considering nationally the Liberals are leading by about five

00:02:50.500 to eight points depending on the polls that you look at. So the trend of Liberals increasing a

00:02:56.340 lead since the last election has not really taken place as much in British Columbia based on the

00:03:02.640 pollster you look at. The NDP in this one, Abaca's data is a little bit more kind of cold on the NDP,

00:03:10.720 but I believe this might be because of a slight outlier result with the Greens, as I'm about to

00:03:15.540 get into. So right now, the NDP and the Abacus data poll are sitting at just 12%, which is

00:03:23.060 effectively what they were at in the last federal election. And the Greens are at 7%, which is

00:03:30.760 probably a big overpoll for them, considering I believe they were only at 2% or 3% in all of

00:03:37.160 British Columbia in the last federal election. All of that mainly concentrated just in Elizabeth

00:03:43.640 May's riding and maybe a little bit scattered around where the provincial green ridings also

00:03:48.920 are, but pretty much only in Saanich and the Gulf Islands. So this is actually a big change since

00:03:56.240 the last abacus data poll. The last abacus data poll also had the federal liberals leading by

00:04:01.960 8%. But in their last poll, or compared to their last poll, or actually, no, no, it's the liaison

00:04:08.760 one that's way different. This one is a smaller change. Basically, Liberals are exactly where

00:04:13.900 they were in the last poll. NDP is. The Greens are up four points. That's why I think it's a bit

00:04:19.880 of an outlier. Seeing them up four points is pretty insane. I think it's actually probably

00:04:24.920 the NDP more at around 16 or 17 points, because that's what other pollsters have been showing,

00:04:30.580 them punching up into the high teens or even low 20s. But the Conservatives were one point up in

00:04:37.180 this poll. Now, the pipeline announcement with Daniel Smith could hurt the Conservatives,

00:04:42.960 but the microclimate of North Vancouver-Capilano is so much different than if you were running a

00:04:49.140 by-election, let's say, on North Vancouver Island, North Island-Powell River, where Aaron Gunn is.

00:04:57.000 If he dropped out and there was a by-election, the Liberals could actually have more of a chance

00:05:01.260 in a riding like that because the pipeline announcement would make Mark Carney seem

00:05:05.960 very moderate. If you were in Kelowna, Mark Carney would seem more moderate with the pipeline

00:05:10.900 proposal and the Liberals would maybe win that riding back by a bigger margin than they wanted

00:05:15.460 in 2025. North Vancouver Capiland is very different. It's an extremely high income riding

00:05:21.960 compared to the rest of the province. You know, maybe outside of like Yale town or something like

00:05:26.460 that. But the pipeline announcement may end up hurting the liberals because you have a lot of

00:05:31.920 people who vote for, frankly, luxury beliefs. They are voting because they are very wealthy

00:05:38.280 and they can vote for basically pie in the sky green policies because they're really not going

00:05:43.460 to hurt them that much. That doesn't actually define everyone in the riding people. Riding

00:05:48.260 to riding tend to be more similar than they are different. But there is a significant portion of

00:05:53.640 the Liberal vote from this riding, who liked the Green politics of the former incumbent Jonathan

00:05:58.900 Wilkinson, who may end up defecting towards the NDP or even the Greens. I'm going to go over what

00:06:05.220 the last election's results were towards the end of this video, but just to give you a preview,

00:06:10.460 the NDP did terrible in 2025, but in previous elections they used to punch nearby 20% of the

00:06:16.920 vote, but only got 4% last time. So this is what Abacus data is showing regionally. It's pretty

00:06:23.780 tight with basically a little bit of a boost on the left for the green left, which I believe is

00:06:30.300 mostly going to end up with the NDP, because Avi Lewis and the NDP are going to hit the ground hard

00:06:35.380 because Avi needs to prove the NDP are back under him, and they're no longer only going to be

00:06:40.760 punching 4% in a riding like North Vancouver, Napolano anymore. So in just a second here,

00:06:46.540 I'm going to erase the numbers, and then we're going to talk about what liaison now is showing

00:06:52.220 in British Columbia. Okay, we are back. And actually, before I start writing down some of

00:06:58.760 the numbers on the board, I also want to make my erasing a little bit nicer looking. Hopefully,

00:07:03.020 this is all positive ASMR experience for you guys. Before I start going into the numbers,

00:07:07.260 I do want to mention why this by-election has not been called yet. I didn't mention that,

00:07:11.460 but none of the by-elections have been called yet. We were thinking they're going to take place

00:07:15.940 in August, but as the kind of date gets drawn out, we might be into September or at the very

00:07:21.420 least late August when the actual by-elections are called for. I believe the reason Prime

00:07:26.260 Minister Mark Carney has been holding it back, as you may know from my previous video, although

00:07:31.280 YouTube did a terrible job promoting it, that's why it's good to become a member of the channel

00:07:35.160 so I'm not scraping along sometimes with videos only getting like 4,000 views because YouTube

00:07:40.260 just dictated that no one should watch this video. But anyways, Mark Carney gave a Senate

00:07:46.100 appointment to a sitting Conservative MP, Richard Mantle, who represents the riding in Quebec of

00:07:53.300 Chico Timi Le Fjord. Now, this riding is like a three-way split between the Bloc and the Liberals

00:08:01.080 and the Conservatives. Obviously, the Conservatives won it last time, 34% of the vote. Bloc got 31,

00:08:06.300 liberals got 31 now maybe the liberals won't do as well as they expect in a by-election because

00:08:12.080 that was actually kind of an outlier result for them to get as high as 31 they're usually around

00:08:15.760 19 but Prime Minister Carney has been likely holding back the by-elections knowing he was

00:08:21.400 going to effectively politically bribe Richard Mantle into taking an easy senate appointment job

00:08:27.600 and you know doesn't have to run for re-election can sit there basically doing nothing for a very

00:08:32.100 high salary for a long time, hanging out, not really doing anything substantial. And then he

00:08:37.820 could package that by-election up with all the other ones. So even though he could have called

00:08:42.040 the other ones like a month ago, he's been basically sitting on it, waiting for Richard

00:08:45.920 Mantle to finally take that appointment before he could basically, you know, spook the conservatives,

00:08:51.480 you know, blindside them that there's a by-election happening in one of the federal

00:08:55.580 ridings that they actually have a chance of taking away from the conservatives. But now let's get

00:09:01.680 into what the liaison numbers are saying for British Columbia overall. So they have the

00:09:08.320 Liberals down a couple points from where Abacus has them. They have the Liberals currently sitting

00:09:14.120 with 39% of the vote. 39%. The Conservatives are actually a little bit further back from where

00:09:24.080 Abacus data had them, but in a certain sense they're actually closer based on where the mix

00:09:29.680 of left-wing votes are currently going. The Conservative Party in the liaison poll is

00:09:35.560 currently at 34%. So they are five points down from the Liberals rather than only three points

00:09:43.560 in the abacus poll. But the reason why this one actually might be better for the Conservatives

00:09:49.200 than the liaison poll is the NDP have come back with a bit of a vengeance in this one,

00:09:54.880 sitting at 25% regionally in British Columbia. I think probably the truth is somewhere between

00:10:04.520 the two results. This one also only has the Greens at 1%, which is a big discrepancy from where the

00:10:12.660 Abacus data poll had them at. But here is why I'm thinking that this one might be better for

00:10:20.220 the Conservatives than the Abacus one. The 25% for the NDP is concentrated typically on Vancouver

00:10:28.540 Island's Victoria area, Mid-Island, there's some up in the northwest in that bulky valley area where

00:10:36.420 Nathan Cullen used to be, the Conservative MP, and also of course there's quite a bit of NDP vote

00:10:42.960 around the Vancouver area. The NDP only got 4% of the vote in the last federal election.

00:10:50.900 Previously, in this riding, they were usually more at like 18, 19, 22% of the vote. And so,

00:10:57.860 if this poll is right, that probably means Avi Lewis not only is going to be dumping a lot of

00:11:04.020 money and campaigning hard in this riding to prove that the NDP is more robust under his

00:11:08.440 leadership compared to the previous leadership or lack thereof of leadership of Jagmeet Singh.

00:11:13.260 But also, there just seems to be a sort of an organic blowing towards the NDP right now,

00:11:19.760 probably because this is a riding where people have the money in order to oppose pipelines,

00:11:25.540 no matter what the project is. I don't actually think Carney's all that serious about building

00:11:29.940 a pipeline. If he was, we wouldn't be on a 10 plus year timeline to complete one on the southern

00:11:35.240 route, we'd be getting it done in three years. It's deliberately going to take a long time because

00:11:39.200 his heart's not really in it. But regardless, rhetorically speaking, people in North Vancouver,

00:11:44.040 Capilano, the average voter, probably assumes Carney's serious about it, which will probably

00:11:49.260 fuel an NDP, a rise in the NDP vote or the Green vote, because Carney has betrayed them and

00:11:55.260 partnered with fascist, Maple, MAGA, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. I think that is something

00:12:01.760 that's going to happen. And if Avi Lewis campaigns hard, he's going to take some of those big liberal

00:12:07.080 vote banks away. And again, by-elections tend to bring out the most zealous voters, the most

00:12:12.880 conservative of conservatives, and liberal of liberals, and NDP of NDPers. So you're going to

00:12:18.620 have a lot of the hardcore NDP who voted liberal in the last election just to block Yeropaliev and

00:12:25.220 the conservatives, potentially going back NDP because there's no stakes. If the conservatives

00:12:30.460 win this by-election, doesn't really matter, and they're all mad at Carney for not being, you know,

00:12:35.540 anti-pipeline. So this is kind of a weird slurry, this weird mix that Carney is in. He's done

00:12:41.880 something in that, in theory, should make him more popular in certain parts of British Columbia,

00:12:45.580 but in an environment like North Vancouver Capilano could make him less popular. But now I

00:12:52.260 just want to show you how the polls have adjusted in this one since the last British Columbia poll.

00:12:58.480 So right now, the Conservatives have risen by a couple points in this poll from the last liaison poll, and the NDP has gone up by two points, with the Greens having fallen by two points, which seems pretty sensible based on how low they currently are.

00:13:17.480 They must have lost something somewhere. And the Liberals have basically just held still at 39% of the vote, a few points down from where they were at last election. Of course, the Conservatives are also down. But again, the way that this polling mix is going to kind of result in, the way that the regional numbers will work, is that this is probably going to be a much more elevated gain for the NDP in British Columbia in this by-election compared to if the election was held in Kelowna.

00:13:45.300 The election was held in Kelowna. I think you're going to see an NDP getting less than 10% of the

00:13:49.480 vote. North Vancouver Capilano, I think they're probably going to be above at least 15% of the

00:13:54.960 vote. And if Stephen Curran can maintain the 33% he had in the last federal election and maybe push

00:14:02.480 out a couple more voters relative to what the turnout looks like, he could be around 38%,

00:14:07.820 40% of the vote. Again, turnouts and by-elections really matter. That's why you should volunteer

00:14:12.960 your forum and put out a lawn sign because lawn signs tend to at least one lawn sign tends to

00:14:18.380 adjust the vote of one other person on your block they look at how bill or or vanessa's voting and

00:14:24.180 they're like well maybe i'll vote conservative too or at the very least a liberal on the block

00:14:28.780 thinks oh wow there's lots of stephen curran signs around maybe my guy's not going to win and they

00:14:33.500 don't show up that is why it's always very important to get a lawn sign i've heard from

00:14:38.500 uh the stephen curran team since i've been mentioning the lawn signs they have actually

00:14:42.200 bad elevated sign up numbers. And I hope that they can get 1000 lawn signs around that riding

00:14:47.320 is that is a great robust looking campaign that can win a by election because normal turnouts in

00:14:53.280 this riding last federal election, I'm actually going to look at it right now. Turnout in this

00:14:58.340 riding was actually quite high compared to previous to other ridings. Overall, it was like 68%

00:15:05.320 turnout in Canada. This one had 71%. But if you know, by election turnouts, they can sometimes

00:15:11.440 be as low as 15% of people voting. Now this one's competitive, so I could see it being 35%,

00:15:18.040 45% of people voting, but if every conservative or 80, 90% of the conservatives who voted in the

00:15:24.840 federal election show up to vote conservative again, that could end up being 53% plus of the

00:15:31.560 amount of people who actually vote. It's all about turnout, getting out the door, and actually

00:15:37.020 voting. But now I just want to show you where the exact numbers were at in the last federal

00:15:41.940 election, just so you can see my point about the NDP. I'm not sure if we have spending numbers out

00:15:48.360 yet, but I want to also see how much the NDP end up spending here, because if they basically didn't

00:15:53.260 spend anything, that will indicate what them spending some substantial amount of money is

00:15:57.360 actually going to do to the overall vote percentages. Actually, I'm just going to pause

00:16:01.820 because this marker stuff is not coming off as easily, but I will be back as soon as I hit

00:16:07.880 unpause. Magic. I'm back, as I said, after I unpaused. Okay, so we're going to be going over

00:16:14.540 what each of the parties got in the 2025 federal election. Then I also want to show you what they

00:16:19.200 ended up getting back in the 2021 election with the redistributed results based on the new riding

00:16:25.120 boundaries since the 21 election. So back in 2025, Jonathan Wilkinson, who was a very popular

00:16:31.120 incumbent, oftentimes certain incumbents can make a riding safe. He ended up getting, I'm not going

00:16:36.740 to show in the bar chart kind of version, I'll just kind of write it on top and then below will

00:16:41.200 be the 2021 numbers. He ended up getting 59.8% of the vote in the last federal election. Again,

00:16:50.940 he'd been around since 2015. He was good at marrying what I would call the green left and

00:16:56.740 the business liberals together in order to basically start savaging both the Green and

00:17:01.640 the NDPs vote. And in this last federal election, there was a whole elbows up moment where all the

00:17:06.880 NDPs and many of the Greens just voted liberal to block the conservatives because, you know,

00:17:11.980 that's how voting should work. Voting for compromise to spite other people, you know,

00:17:16.860 great way to live your life. But in this last provincial, the federal election, Stephen Curran

00:17:22.140 and the Conservatives actually got 33.6% of the vote, which is quite good for the Conservatives

00:17:29.620 in this federal riding, at least since they had been previously winning it since before Jonathan

00:17:35.340 Wilkinson. The NDP only got 4.2% of the vote in North Vancouver Capilano, and the Greens got 1.7%,

00:17:48.160 which is really sad for the NDP, considering the Greens maintained their vote better than the NDP

00:17:54.780 did. Yes, they're lower, but they didn't lose nearly as large a portion of their vote as the

00:17:59.760 NDP did. That was a 14.8% downgrade for the NDP. So that's with 71% turnout. In 2021,

00:18:10.660 Jonathan Wilkinson had gotten 44 percent, 44.6 percent of the vote. So maybe I'll just quickly

00:18:19.980 denote that right here is 2025, 25, and this is 21, 2021. The conservative candidate who was not

00:18:33.080 Stephen Curran ended up getting 29.3 percent of the vote, but I don't think the conservatives

00:18:38.260 really tried that hard in this riding when I look at, oh, no, they actually kind of did, but, you

00:18:44.000 know, it was Erin O'Toole's conservative, so I can't really blame people for not showing up for

00:18:48.260 them. Then the NDP in 2021, based on the new boundaries, had gotten 19.05% of the vote, with

00:18:59.020 the Greens having captured 4.27% of the vote. And back then, the PPC had also had like two and a

00:19:06.100 half points so no doubt if they weren't around and Aaron O'Toole wasn't such a dud of a leader

00:19:11.080 conservatives probably would have been punching more into like the mid 30s or so and they had

00:19:16.100 4.27 percent here so but this is remembering with on top here the elbows up moment where the left

00:19:25.840 consolidated around the liberals to stop the conservatives with Jonathan Wilkinson around

00:19:30.800 as the incumbent. And down here, this is with the COVID election, where the people who have

00:19:37.340 luxury beliefs in the North Vancouver Capilano area, who are like scared of COVID, and they

00:19:42.700 think the conservatives want everyone infected with COVID and whatnot, other nonsense, what was 0.85

00:19:47.200 going on, even though the conservatives under O'Toole were pathetic on COVID. They were also 0.94

00:19:51.460 voting liberal because it was kind of like the default good person thing to do then. And Aaron

00:19:57.060 O'Toole's conservatives were complete flops, but that was a little bit closer overall. But now

00:20:02.820 with the numbers the way they are, with the NDP coming back in a big way, I think what we're going

00:20:09.920 to see is based on turnout, if the conservatives can really hit the doors in this riding and push

00:20:16.640 Stephen Curran, if he can maintain that the numbers that he had to get that 33.1%, so to give

00:20:23.500 you specific numbers for this. Stephen Curran last election got 21,339 votes. Liberals, Jonathan

00:20:30.220 Wilkinson had 37,909. If Stephen Curran can just basically get out probably 20,000, 19,000 voters,

00:20:40.320 he can probably win the riding. It's just about maintaining the numbers of voters that he had

00:20:45.680 last federal election in order to beat whoever the Liberals have picked. And I believe the who

00:20:51.380 they picked is some random Ottawa staffer who at least hasn't lived in the riding for over a decade

00:20:57.880 at this point. So Stephen Curran already has kind of that, you know, native son of the soil kind of

00:21:04.220 advantage over the person the Liberals have picked. Liberals are going to have a problem getting the

00:21:08.680 green left on board for voting for them. Avi Lewis is going to throw a lot more money at this riding

00:21:13.580 than he had previously done. Like the NDP, even when they were getting 19% of the vote, were only

00:21:18.380 spending $20,000 here, compared to the Liberals and the Conservatives, like over $100,000. So if

00:21:24.440 Avi Lewis spends like $40,000, $50,000 here, and with the organic pushback towards the NDP and away

00:21:31.580 from the Liberals, I think they could get at least 15% of the vote. And if that ends up happening,

00:21:36.660 and Conservatives can just maintain what they had, and then by-election turnout ends up being

00:21:41.340 lower, there is actually a good chance, at the very least, of heavily chipping away at the Liberal

00:21:46.600 lead, if not potentially coming up the middle and winning the seat. I'm not predicting the

00:21:51.800 Conservatives are going to win. You don't really want to get into the prediction business when it

00:21:55.320 comes to by-election outcomes in these kind of swingy type ridings. But if the Conservatives

00:22:01.160 and Polyev can demonstrate that they are reducing the Liberal leads in some of these ridings, 0.98

00:22:07.060 I think it is going to give Canadians that second look at the Polyev Conservatives and be willing 0.53

00:22:12.940 to kind of hear them out and seeing them as a substantial force against the Carney liberals

00:22:17.220 because so much of what the media has been doing is trying to count out the poly of conservatives

00:22:21.880 so that voters will stop considering them. Your new father is Mark Carney and you can

00:22:26.740 look at no other party other than his because we have declared he is the popular party and

00:22:31.980 the poly of conservatives are the unpopular party. So if the conservatives can smash that

00:22:37.040 narrative, it will help them a lot with all of the dumb sort of leadership questions around

00:22:42.180 poly of all the conservatives can't win the conservatives are unpopular if they narrow this

00:22:47.540 even just to losing by five points rather than the previously large margin it is so much the

00:22:54.180 better for the poly of conservatives because they can point out hey this used to be a safe liberal

00:22:58.420 riding under jonathan wilkinson and we got pretty close in the by-election there are people not

00:23:03.220 exactly jibing with what mark carney is currently doing they're mad at the slow progress on pretty

00:23:08.900 much anything he's actually promised around trade in the economy and all of his supposed successes

00:23:14.100 like the pipeline announcement are all things that aren't even going to be done for like a decade or

00:23:19.060 more and then if you consider the fact that the musk we meant to wasser and all the other first

00:23:23.540 nations along the area 108 of them are going to have potential veto powers over the southern

00:23:28.500 route pipeline do we really trust that we're going to get this thing done on any timeline that would

00:23:35.380 be considered you know realistic or can be considered even like somewhat you know achievable

00:23:42.660 not even achievable i'm trying to find the word like respectable building a pipeline in 10 years

00:23:49.860 is like cool consolation prize we were severely under capacity in how much oil we were shipping

00:23:55.940 before and in 10 years even adding a million barrels will be seen as like a small drop in

00:24:01.940 the bucket compared to what other countries are able to achieve even just what texas alone is able

00:24:07.940 to achieve in terms of exportation anyways with all that being said thank you guys for watching

00:24:14.420 this video make sure to like share subscribe consider making consider getting a lawn sign for

00:24:19.620 steven kern if you live in the riding of north vancouver capilano volunteer for him if you can

00:24:24.820 even if you just put in one day it really makes a difference hustle name recognition getting lawn

00:24:30.980 signs out makes a massive difference in these by-elections because the lawn signs on people's

00:24:36.380 actual personal property tends to set the narrative for the neighborhood of what party is in control

00:24:42.380 of the election in this area and which one is not. Anyways, with all that being said,

00:24:47.560 thank you guys for watching. I'll see you all later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - July 07, 2026

Will Pierre Poilievre Win a Liberal Seat in BC？ Latest Polls Show Tight Race

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