The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 01, 2024


Will Toronto toss out Justin Trudeau's Liberals this summer？

Topics
Toronto St. Paul by-election Toronto St. Paul election
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Team Trudeau Caitlin Bennett Jamil Giovanni Leslie Church Paul Canvas Michael Ignatieff Erin O'Toole Stephen Lecce Anita Anand Yara Sachs Michael Kim Doug Ford Doorknock Durham
Trudeau Liberals flailing while falling in the polls! Trudeau's Liberals try and woke-scold Poilievre over pride flag raising

Episode Stats


Length

10 minutes

Words per minute

185.43

Word count

2,001

Sentence count

112

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Toxicity

14

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A new by-election is taking place in the Toronto St. Paul riding on June 24th, and it's going to be a test of the Liberal Party's grip on the city of Toronto. This is a riding that hasn't gone blue in a few decades, and the result could have a big impact on Justin Trudeau's chances in the next election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party's grip on the city of Toronto is about to be tested in the summer in a new by-election taking place on June 24th for the riding of Toronto St. Paul.
00:00:13.200 The long-time Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett is stepping down, and this riding that hasn't gone blue in probably a few decades is about to have its support tested in an area that is going to be very telling on how well Justin Trudeau is going to be able to run in the 2025 election.
00:00:30.440 In fact, I think the Liberals lose this seat by a big enough margin.
00:00:34.820 There's going to be a big media push to try and get Justin Trudeau to step down as the Liberal Party leader.
00:00:40.520 If you somehow lose Toronto St. Paul to the Conservatives, you're effectively dead as a Liberal Party politician.
00:00:47.980 I'm not even sure if Michael Ignatieff lost this seat back in 2011, and if Justin Trudeau loses it, that's really, really bad.
00:00:56.100 We've seen by-elections before this June 24th date.
00:00:59.600 We had Durham back on, I think, March 4th, where the Conservatives did really well.
00:01:04.780 Not only did they gain 11 percentage points of the vote, but both the Liberals and the NDP lost support simply because it's not just that people don't like Justin Trudeau.
00:01:15.880 People don't like the left. Canadians don't want any leftist parties in power anymore in the majority of the country, and they want to elect strong Conservative candidates like Jamil Giovanni.
00:01:26.320 And I make that delineation by saying strong Conservative candidates because the previous MP in Durham, Aaron O'Toole, was a complete weakling and effectively was a Liberal.
00:01:37.100 Jamil Giovanni was so strong that after he got elected in the by-election, the first thing he did was went after Doug Ford and Stephen Lecce in Ontario for being phonies and not actually pushing forward on the parental rights legislation that they had promised people.
00:01:50.540 But for some context on this by-election in Toronto, St. Paul, this is where the riding is located.
00:01:57.180 It is right in the downtown of the city.
00:01:59.940 I guess the downtown is closer to the river, but you get my point.
00:02:03.780 It's in the heart of the city right here.
00:02:05.640 This is a riding that's going to be quite representative of how a lot of other ridings in the city of Toronto could potentially go.
00:02:12.660 And right now, based on the national polling and polling within Ontario and the city of Toronto, websites like 338 that do projections for races like this actually show there being a decent chance for the Conservatives to win.
00:02:25.960 They have the Conservatives with an 18% chance to win, and they're projecting that the Liberals will get 39% and the Conservatives will get 34%.
00:02:34.200 That's obviously an average rating.
00:02:36.180 That means that the Conservatives could do a little bit worse, could do a bit better.
00:02:39.680 Same thing with the Liberals. 0.98
00:02:40.760 But what you have to know about this race, too, is that when they're projecting the Liberals at 39%, that is utterly pathetic. 0.88
00:02:49.080 In the 21 election, Carolyn Bennett got 48% of the vote. 0.67
00:02:53.880 The election before that, 51%.
00:02:56.120 The election before that, I believe 53%, and the one before that was 55%.
00:03:00.700 This is a riding where it was never in doubt that the Liberals were going to win.
00:03:04.700 A lot of Liberal ridings tend to be ridings where they only win it with like 40% of the vote, 41% of the vote.
00:03:10.760 A lot of Liberal riding where they win 55% of the vote, that is like a very seldomly seen safe, safe Liberal seat.
00:03:20.560 A lot of Liberal seats around the country, and it's a bit of an odd metric, a lot of Liberal seats are seats where the NDP and the Conservatives also do well.
00:03:30.980 And so the Liberals tend to win 42%, 43% of the vote, and then the rest of it is kind of evenly divided between the Conservatives and the NDP, the PPC and the Greens.
00:03:40.960 The Liberals win very marginal elections, where the Conservatives, when they win a seat, it tends to be like 70% of the vote, 65% of the vote.
00:03:48.840 So, you know, like you could see here with Jamil Giovanni, 57% of the vote, that's a typical Conservative suburban seat.
00:03:55.460 This seat in downtown Toronto might have to be won by the Liberals, with less than 40% of the vote, might I remind you.
00:04:03.620 And it's just not going well for the Liberals.
00:04:06.620 One, I just want to quickly highlight this photo of the candidate for the Liberals, Leslie Church, probably a nice woman, just taking a photo with Anita Anand.
00:04:15.140 And what I want to point out to you here is something that you probably can't even see.
00:04:19.720 Look at the Leslie Church sign there in the background, any one of them.
00:04:23.920 Do you see that really tiny little bit of text along the border of the top of the signs?
00:04:28.940 That says Team Trudeau.
00:04:31.720 Team Trudeau on some of their 2019 signs used to be this big piece of the sign that it is, you know, whatever, Yarra Sachs, Team Trudeau.
00:04:42.320 It's Carolyn Bennett, Team Trudeau.
00:04:44.140 And now it's Leslie Church and it says Team Trudeau.
00:04:48.800 It's like very subtle because even in Toronto, Trudeau is not a good brand to be associated with.
00:04:54.980 Maybe in like downtown Montreal, you want to be associated with Justin Trudeau because he gives out so many benefits towards Quebec and specifically the metropolitan Montreal area.
00:05:04.860 But in Toronto, no, no, you've got to de-emphasize how much you're associated with Justin Trudeau in a city that is considered a default progressive area.
00:05:14.380 And then they're doing a lot of sort of value-hooing that, oh, you better re-elect us because of all the great things we're doing.
00:05:19.980 And literally every single thing they list is just a lie, not even up to interpretation, just a lie.
00:05:26.160 Like, I'm proud to be part of the liberal team that has delivered $10 a day child care.
00:05:31.460 No, it hasn't. 1.00
00:05:32.200 There's a lot of daycare centers not willing to accept this new stupid program. 0.99
00:05:35.420 And they're even shutting down because it's a foolish government scheme that seeks to give basically below profitability revenues to daycares that take part in the program. 0.98
00:05:47.220 So if you're a daycare that operates in a downtown city center where your infrastructure costs a lot of money, $10 a day child care programs, it's not actually $10, but, you know, the user pays $10 and then the government supplements it.
00:05:59.200 The supplement does not actually, like, match the costs of many of these daycare centers that don't have extremely cheap infrastructure.
00:06:08.940 There's help seniors access dental care.
00:06:12.500 Entire provinces, there's less than 1% of dentists willing to take part in the dental care program.
00:06:17.460 It's going to be a massive flop.
00:06:19.000 They're going to roll out every single positive anecdote that comes from the dental care program in the next couple months.
00:06:24.320 Past that, there's not going to be that much that comes from it.
00:06:26.780 And then we see lift kids out of poverty.
00:06:30.240 Food bank use is up.
00:06:32.040 We have record high food bank demand.
00:06:34.620 No, no, no.
00:06:35.360 Child poverty is not down. 0.99
00:06:36.760 I hate that stupid lie where because more kids have smartphones than ever, that means child poverty is down. 0.99
00:06:42.380 They'll use some fringe, dumb metric. 1.00
00:06:44.620 Oh, there's hygiene products in more schools, bathrooms. 1.00
00:06:47.940 That means child poverty is down.
00:06:49.680 Like, this is actually what they use as metrics. 0.96
00:06:52.720 It's these stupid fringe material things that are provided by the government that equals no child poverty. 0.97
00:06:59.140 Even if the child's family is literally in poverty, you can just cross them off the poverty ledger through these stupid backdoor metrics in order to pretend that everything's actually getting much better. 0.97
00:07:10.580 But the perfect image that has come out of Leslie Church's Toronto St. Paul by-election campaign is this one. 0.82
00:07:18.700 I think it is the spinning image of what Canada has become under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's lack of leadership.
00:07:24.880 It is a homeless person sleeping in front of Leslie Church's campaign headquarters where in Toronto you cannot find cheap housing.
00:07:34.020 And so people are now having to sleep out in front of the Liberal headquarters, a testament to the housing crisis, to the drug crisis, and to the spike in crime in all of our major cities.
00:07:48.080 I think if the Conservatives wanted to win this race, they should be running that as a campaign ad all over social media, that this is what Canada has become.
00:07:58.200 The Liberal Party's astroturfed headquarters where they have all their signs everywhere, and then you have a homeless person suffering on the street right out front without somebody helping them.
00:08:09.600 Huh. You know, what a time to be in Canada.
00:08:12.760 But one thing I just quickly want to highlight right now is that although the Conservatives are doing well in this riding, considering what they used to do, again, 18% chance of winning,
00:08:23.320 if you live in the city of Toronto, you have to pitch it.
00:08:26.300 Like, pitch into the campaign, help LitTrop, help Doorknock, help do calling.
00:08:31.380 If you're watching this video and you have any time on your hands, I will be linking the Toronto St. Paul Canvas sign-up here.
00:08:40.340 I want you guys to sign up to help Canvas if you can in Toronto.
00:08:43.860 I'm not being paid by the Conservative Party to promote anything.
00:08:47.200 I just want this riding to flip blue.
00:08:49.520 So if you have time, if you're in Toronto, either donate to the campaign, go and volunteer for them, phone call for them, LitTrop for them, or even to share their stuff on social media.
00:08:59.200 Because if we can flip this riding blue, you can flip any Toronto riding blue.
00:09:03.760 Like, not quite that hyperbolic, but you know what I mean.
00:09:07.000 Half of the ridings in Toronto are in play if this riding can be flipped.
00:09:11.080 This riding, too, is going to be a test of how much the anti-Semitism of the Liberal Party has affected Jewish voters in Toronto.
00:09:19.160 This riding is 15% Jewish voters.
00:09:21.340 That's a demographic that probably, just a few years ago, probably 70-80% of them voted Liberal.
00:09:27.840 I think that it could flip, where about 60-80% of them might be voting Conservative.
00:09:32.100 Because of just how rampant anti-Semitic violence, mass, like, illegal protests occupying public land has become, that a lot of these people are going to flip.
00:09:44.120 So if this riding can flip, a lot of other ridings can flip.
00:09:46.640 So make sure you go and help them out.
00:09:48.760 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:09:51.300 Again, as you guys know, I'm running for the Conservative Party nomination in my riding of Calgary Signal Hill.
00:09:56.800 If you live on the west side of Calgary in the Signal Hill riding and you're a Conservative Party member, make sure to mark me number one on your ballot, mark Michael Kim number two, and I will probably come up with a full list of what I would fill out a ballot or how I would fill out a ballot for this area.
00:10:12.060 And if you don't live in this riding, if you want to donate to my legal fund, that's also great.
00:10:16.640 I have a Give, Send, Go link in the description below.
00:10:19.420 If you guys want to help us with the legal costs, we've incurred from frivolous defamation suits from developers who can't actually provide any evidence for their defamation claims, yet they are still pushing forward these cases after more than two and a half years just trying to financially exhaust us.
00:10:35.140 Thank you all for who have donated.
00:10:37.080 It's been extremely helpful and made sure I didn't take on massive amounts of credit card debt trying to pay for all my fees.
00:10:43.920 So, yeah, that's it for me.
00:10:45.740 I'll be back with another video later on.