The biggest polling indicator that Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party are not going to be able to mount a big political comeback for the 2025 federal election is the fact that they are now decisively losing women to the Conservative Party. Justin Trudeau only ever did well with three demographic groups: Quebecers, women, and voters who were 60 years old and older. And now he s arguably winning none of them.
00:00:00.000The biggest polling indicator that Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party are not going to be able to mount a big political comeback for the 2025 federal election is the fact that they are now decisively losing women to the Conservative Party.
00:00:12.600Justin Trudeau only ever really did well with about three demographic groups. That was Quebecers, women, and voters who were 60 years old and older.
00:00:20.320And now he's arguably winning none of them, depending on the day, maybe he's doing a little bit better than the Bloc, but women is the biggest loss for the Liberal Party.
00:00:28.720But before I get into some more of the polling details, I just want to quickly mention that I, Wyatt Claypool, am running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:00:37.960It's this riding on the west side of Calgary right here. If you live in that riding, buy a Conservative Party membership and hopefully vote for me number one on your ballot when the nomination date is set.
00:00:47.700We have a big problem, I find, with a lot of these strong Conservative ridings having a lot of red Tories running for them.
00:00:53.980People who were big fans of Aaron O'Toole five seconds ago and now they're pretending to like Pierre Polyev's agenda, despite the fact they would have called these sorts of things radical not that long ago.
00:01:05.440I think we need people who are real Conservatives representing Conservative ridings.
00:01:09.060So hopefully if you live in that area, buy a membership, vote for me, or even if you don't, you can go check out my website, linked in the description below, and donate by e-transfer if you want.
00:01:17.580It all really helps me out. But getting back to the polling, it cannot be overstated how bad this is for the Liberal Party.
00:01:24.340The Liberals are trailing the Conservatives on women by 12 points, and make no mistake, it's not that the Liberals have been maybe digging out some male voters and then it's making up for the gap.
00:01:34.660The Conservatives have been winning men even harder than they used to be.
00:01:38.740But for some context, the Liberals used to lead the Conservatives significantly, although the lead was always kind of going down over time.
00:01:47.760Justin Trudeau has been more heavily having to rely on regional differences that he knows he's going to get no votes in Saskatchewan, no votes in Alberta, very few votes in Manitoba and other parts of the country.
00:02:00.480It's what a lot of people who follow the polls say is that the Liberals have a very efficient voting base.
00:02:06.320Their voters in the Toronto area are winning them ridings with like 32% of the vote, where Conservatives in Alberta win ridings by 75%.
00:02:15.720So obviously a bunch of votes are technically wasted out West for the Conservatives, where the Liberals tend to have all the votes where they need them.
00:02:23.240But women were a big part of this for the Liberal Party.
00:02:27.240GTA women in Easter Canada, pensioners, were the ones who were lifting up the Liberals.
00:02:33.820But now after living with the consequences of Liberal policy for eight years, the happy talking his way through a crisis bit is not working for Justin Trudeau anymore.
00:02:43.020This was the polls from back in early 2023.
00:03:55.060But again, like I said before, the Liberals usually do better with older voters.
00:04:00.300The NDP is the left-wing party that does better with younger voters.
00:04:03.460The Liberals used to always win 60-plus voters with like 42% of the vote or 38% with maybe the Conservatives coming up the rear with 32% or 31%.
00:04:14.460But right now, the Liberals are only at 30% with voters 60% and over.
00:04:44.880The NDP is getting 28 and the Conservatives are getting 32.
00:04:48.460A demographic that the Conservatives usually just said, yeah, we'll figure it out later.
00:04:53.500When people turn 30, that's when we'll take it seriously.
00:04:56.260The Conservatives are basically winning young people by default because young people don't know what party to go to on the left.
00:05:04.900So the left is now splitting up their vote while the Conservatives are just winning every single one of these demographics, whether they're targeting them with specific policies or not.
00:05:12.900That is an overall fundamental structural collapse happening for the Liberals.
00:05:18.720It's not that maybe they've done a little bit too much pro-union stuff, or maybe they've done too many policies that benefit X group of people.
00:05:27.200They just don't offer anything that appeals to any demographic, even though they keep throwing policies, benefits out the window.
00:05:34.000The thing is that voters aren't actually coming and are attracted to that anymore.
00:05:37.740They know that basically inflation is being driven by government spending.
00:05:42.800This is why whenever you see the post by the Liberals that the Conservatives, all they offer Canadians are cuts and be terrified of Conservative cuts.
00:05:50.620Nobody is terrified of Conservative cuts anymore.
00:05:54.080It's because everyone knows the government spends too much money.
00:05:56.940While people are having to buy cheaper products to make up for the fact that they don't have as much money or they're just having to buy less,
00:06:02.920they're seeing the government constantly buying and spending more and taxing people more for the pleasure of seeing the government burn money in barrels.
00:06:12.560That's why the sort of happy talk type politics that used to be able to get a lot of people in the GTA who tend to benefit a lot from Western equalization money,
00:06:22.180those people, even the equalization money, is no longer padding their public finances in their provinces enough for them to not notice the rot that the Liberals have sort of put into the Canadian economy.
00:06:33.780It's just so decisive that the Conservatives have a better plan.
00:06:37.620And remember, the Liberals constantly have been fear-mongering over the past six months that the Conservative Party is a pro-life party.
00:06:48.280Actually, if you look at the polling, women are more pro-life than men are.
00:06:51.220And most Canadians are actually more pro-life than they let on.
00:06:55.280There's no such thing, or at the very least, it's a unicorn voter who is pro-abortion in all instances.
00:07:01.700So when they fear-monger because the Conservatives might want to ban sex-selective abortion or some MPs want to have some limit on abortion,
00:07:15.700Because every Canadian actually usually assumes that we have some reasonable limit until they're informed we don't.
00:07:21.820In which case, it totally takes the baton away from the Liberals when people realize that they've kind of been lied to when it comes to the abortion issue their entire lives.
00:07:31.500That it's not that the Conservatives want to restrict it to like six weeks or something like that, like Texas.
00:07:37.680And most Canadians do not buy into the fear-mongering once they know that fact.
00:07:43.200Anyways, that's pretty much it for me today.
00:07:45.720I was hoping to be able to maybe do a follow-up podcast with a female Conservative influencer to talk about this issue.
00:07:52.460Because I want to see what their insight is into what they hear from women on why maybe people are shifting Liberal to Conservative or NDP to Conservative.
00:08:00.980When it comes to just what the priorities of a lot of Canadian women are, I think it would be an interesting podcast.
00:08:30.300It was based on a complete nonsense defamation accusation against us.
00:08:35.400The only thing that we said about the guy was something that we based on a Globe and Mail article that came out about him two years ago that said way more about him than we ever said.
00:08:44.900But he thought we couldn't pay for the lawsuit and that he could extract a fake apology out of us to make himself look good.
00:08:50.980And it's not gone that way for him because we were willing to fight it out with him in court.
00:08:54.900And other than that, again, I'm running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.