The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - Breakfast With Beau ｜ Monday 2nd March 2026

00:00:00.000 I hope you are. Sincerely, genuinely hope you are. I hope you've had a good weekend.

00:00:06.420 Are you bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, rocking and rearing for the week ahead?

00:00:12.320 I hope so. Let's go. It's Monday morning. It has just ticked past 8 in the a.m. Greenwich Mean Time

00:00:16.700 on Monday the 2nd of March in the year of our Lord, 2026. As always, I'm joined by producer

00:00:23.240 Little Harry. How are you this morning? Good, sir? Morning. I'm good. Great. And you are the

00:00:28.800 glorious band, the chosen few, my band of brothers and sisters. Thank you for joining

00:00:33.460 me. Without you, it really isn't a thing. It really isn't, is it? So thank you. Before

00:00:37.760 we get into it, quick bit of housekeeping. One correction, probably the worst error I've

00:00:44.360 made on the Bo Show, just quickly to say, just to recognise it. On Friday morning, I said

00:00:49.720 it was odd the print media hadn't gone with the by-lection results. Well, I failed to realise

00:00:57.300 that the result didn't come through to like 5 a.m. or something. So there's no way they

00:01:00.740 could have printed it. So that was my first real fail, I think, on the Bo Show. Happy

00:01:05.260 to put my hands up and say, sorry about that. Got it wrong. I mean, it's not that bad, is

00:01:08.740 it, if I fail? It's not really that bad. But nonetheless, I got it wrong. So, fair enough.

00:01:15.020 I do want to point it out. I want to try and be as accurate as possible. Beyond just opinion,

00:01:19.900 just actual fact, if I get it wrong. Fair enough. All right, let's jump into it. I mean,

00:01:24.380 bit of a slow news day today, I think. Not much happened over the weekend. Pretty dull,

00:01:30.400 kind of nothing in the news. Of course, I'm joking. The second, or perhaps even the biggest

00:01:39.160 war of my lifetime kicked off over the weekend. I would say probably second, but I think Iraq 1.00

00:01:44.480 2003 is bigger because of the ground troop elements. But in terms of the restructuring

00:01:49.600 of the balance of power in the entire Middle East, arguably bigger even than that. Possibly

00:01:55.740 the biggest war in my lifetime, and I'm in my mid-40s. So, you know, it's a biggie.

00:02:00.880 It's a big one. Difficult for the Nothing Ever Happens crew to sort of square that circle.

00:02:08.680 Well, should we just jump straight into it? I woke up Saturday morning to the news, as it did

00:02:13.480 everyone, to the news that Trump and Bibi finally pulled the trigger on Bibi's dream

00:02:19.260 of bombing Iran back to the Stone Age. Sort of. There's more to it than that, isn't there? 0.96

00:02:27.100 All right, well, let's just get straight into it. Okay, what is the actual print media in

00:02:31.060 the UK talking about? As you can imagine, most of it is with a UK slant. So it's not talking

00:02:37.740 often about... Sometimes it's talking about the grander picture, but often it's just talking

00:02:42.800 about the use of UK bases and things, which I'll talk all about, but I don't want to spend

00:02:47.640 half the hour talking all about that. So probably might even whip through the front pages a bit

00:02:52.840 so we can get on to talking about it in more general, more sweeping terms. Sound good to

00:02:57.680 you? I've got no immediate feedback, so that's just what I'm going to do. All right, the papers.

00:03:04.200 Britain backs war on Iran and Trump fails to press on. So one of the first things to say

00:03:09.420 is that when all this was being planned, you know, by the Pentagon really, they'd asked

00:03:16.420 the UK if they, the US military, could use bases, particularly that Diego Garcia in the

00:03:22.960 Chagos Islands, but also the big RAF base that we've got on Cyprus. And whenever stuff goes

00:03:30.700 down in the Middle East and the UK is involved in it, which usually we are, that base on Cyprus

00:03:35.300 is of key strategic importance. But apparently what it had been, it's not that Starmer and

00:03:43.180 the UK government was particularly pro the Ayatollah or anything like that. They're not, to be fair.

00:03:50.060 But they just thought it was, it might be illegal. If the United States and Israel were to unilaterally

00:03:57.860 start a war, a full-scale air campaign against Iran, without going to the UN, with Trump not

00:04:06.460 even asking Congress, that that might be, that might be illegal. And that the British government

00:04:12.680 didn't want anything to do with that if it were, after the fact, shown to be an illegal action.

00:04:19.240 So that was, that was the UK's government position in the first instance, is no, you can't use Cyprus,

00:04:25.200 you can't use Diego Garcia. And on the first day, on Saturday morning after the Cobra meeting,

00:04:33.600 that position remained the same, or quite, kind of. The UK said, Starmer said he would

00:04:39.820 put UK planes in the edges for purely defensive purposes. Well now already, you know, another

00:04:45.500 24 hours, 36 hours after that, he's done a type of U-turn on that and said, OK, the US can

00:04:53.040 use our bases, as long as it's for sort of more defensive purposes. But once you let them

00:05:00.640 use it, you can't really stop them. Once you give the US Air Force the green light to use

00:05:06.600 your runways, you know. Starmer can't, at that point, Starmer can't really stop the Joint

00:05:16.600 Chiefs from flying wherever they want, effectively. But anyway, alright, that's a relatively small

00:05:21.080 detail. Or is it? Or is it? Alright, so Britain backs war on Iran. We came out and we said,

00:05:28.140 as did Macron. We've had, on Saturday morning, we had no idea this was like imminently going

00:05:37.660 to happen. It was going to happen this morning. We weren't told. We weren't invited, one way

00:05:41.900 or another, to be involved. We weren't told about it. We found it, basically, we, Starmer

00:05:46.580 and Macron and various others, most others, we found out about it through the news like

00:05:51.900 everyone else. Just not invited to be part of it. Probably for the best of that, isn't

00:05:58.400 it? I mean, it's Israel's war, isn't it? Basically. Although, that's not entirely fair either, is

00:06:08.800 it? I mean, Iran did export terror all around the world. I mean, there was loads of Iranian 1.00

00:06:16.800 terror cells found in Britain, weren't there, last year? Just last year.

00:06:21.900 Alright, well, okay. And Trump vows to press on. That was yesterday, Sunday. I've been

00:06:26.800 glued to the news. All weekend. Absolutely glued to the news. I mean, I'm a news junkie

00:06:31.340 anyway, right? And it's, even if it wasn't my job, I'm a bit of a news junkie anyway, and

00:06:35.900 it's my job. It was like, on 9-11, or during the war in 2003 against Iraq, just glued to

00:06:45.640 the TV, for like two, three days straight or more. Just glued to it. Yesterday, a lot

00:06:53.280 of the news, the angles coming out of the corporate mainstream media, was that Trump hasn't got,

00:06:59.040 for some reason, they've decided, amongst themselves, that Trump hasn't necessarily got the political

00:07:03.880 will to keep this going beyond a few days. Because at first, in the first instance, Trump

00:07:10.460 said, or the Pentagon had said, this will be, quote, a multi-day operation. Not a multi-week

00:07:17.500 operation. Not, we'll keep going for as long as it takes. Not that. It was just a multi-day

00:07:22.540 operation. And so, where a few Iranian missiles got through here or there, people started saying

00:07:30.940 in the media that Trump hasn't got the balls, basically, to keep this going for very long.

00:07:38.060 Well, I guess, in reaction to that, Trump has come out and said, explicitly said, no, 0.94

00:07:43.700 we'll keep this going for at least a few weeks. Or different things, said a few different things

00:07:47.240 over the weekend. One time, they did say, as long as it takes. And another thing more recently

00:07:53.740 was that he said something like four or five weeks. So, in other words, it's not going to

00:07:57.560 be over in the next couple of days. But then there's talk that he will sit down with the

00:08:02.720 Iranians again, but whether that's all a bit fake, really. You know, like the negotiations

00:08:09.880 with Kushner and Wyckoff in Geneva. Okay, you can sit down at a table. It doesn't necessarily

00:08:17.080 stop military action, does it? But okay, Trump vows to press on. Right, let's look at the

00:08:25.380 actual headlines then. The Daily Telegraph. Britain backs war on Iran. Well, to a limited

00:08:30.780 extent. It's certainly against the regime. Certainly against the regime. You know, Starmer

00:08:39.980 doesn't recognise that the theocratic Islamic regime is a bad one. It says, Trump says regime

00:08:53.540 ready for talks to end attacks. Attacks. Yeah, they probably are, aren't they? They got

00:09:00.900 hit very hard. We'll get into that in a moment. Number 10 claims mass evacuation to save thousands

00:09:08.040 in Gulf. That's sort of the biggest story in the British print media. That, really. Oil

00:09:12.880 prices to jump 10% as OPEC nations cash in on conflict. So, a couple of things there.

00:09:18.040 First of all, the thing about the British mass evacuation of thousands in the Gulf. Yeah,

00:09:24.280 different reports are saying there's something in the order of 90,000 to 100,000 Brits or

00:09:29.540 expats in the Gulf region. You know, whether it's in Qatar, Kuwait, but mainly like the UAE,

00:09:36.380 the United Arab Emirates, down by the Horn there with the Straits of Hormuz. There's certainly

00:09:42.880 tens and tens of thousands of British people in the region that are at some limited, perhaps

00:09:49.000 not all that limited, risk of being blown up one way or another. Many, if not most, commercial

00:09:59.260 flights are just stopped because, again, they can't guarantee they might not get hit by a

00:10:03.640 missile, one way or another. Yeah, so the big story is, and I don't want to spend loads

00:10:09.160 of time on this, but I'll talk about it because it's in the news, but I won't bang on and on

00:10:12.600 and on about it this morning, is that Britain wants to, needs to, thinks it wants to, need

00:10:17.240 to get those people out. Fair enough, isn't it? There's loads of people, Brits in Dubai or

00:10:24.460 something. If anyone doesn't know, the United Arab Emirates, Severan Emirates there, and Abu

00:10:30.800 Dhabi's the biggest one, and Dubai's the second biggest one. And the main two are Abu Dhabi

00:10:34.040 and Dubai. The other ones are really, really little, fairly, relatively inconsequential.

00:10:37.840 But Dubai is probably, arguably, the most important one because the airport there is

00:10:45.200 like the busiest airport in the world. If you've ever flown beyond that, if you've ever flown

00:10:50.620 to India or Thailand or Australia or anything like that, you may well stop over in Dubai.

00:10:56.240 Dubai is like one of the busiest travel hubs in the whole world, right? And the whole,

00:11:03.520 and it massively, massively depends on tourism, doesn't it? And so that's a worry for the Emirates

00:11:13.160 there, that tourism will be wrecked, and all the flow of people through there will be wrecked.

00:11:19.580 Well, it will be, won't it, to some degree. So there you go, how to get them out, because

00:11:27.780 that airport in Dubai is just not, it's closed, right? So you have to get them overland to

00:11:33.120 Saudi Arabia, through the Arabian desert, get them to Saudi Arabia, and then flown out from

00:11:38.260 there. So it's a little bit of a logistical, little bit of a logistical nightmare.

00:11:42.700 Yeah. Okay. I saw one clip on Twitter yesterday of Andrew Tate. I believe he was in Dubai. It

00:11:52.520 looks like he's in Dubai. And he was saying, it's a weird take from Andrew Tate. He was

00:11:58.380 saying, just to his camera phone, saying, oh, anyone that thinks this is a war, you're 0.83

00:12:02.660 mad, you don't understand reality, that's crazy, you don't know, you don't know anything.

00:12:06.840 This is just an event, call me in two days, nothing's happening, basically, sort of, kind

00:12:10.660 of, I'm paraphrasing, but that's what he said. Like Andrew Tate knows what he's talking

00:12:18.400 about. Who told Andrew Tate he knows anything about grand strategy and geopolitics? He should

00:12:24.020 probably stick to things he knows about, like kickboxing and cigar and cigars, being some

00:12:32.300 sort of unconvicted wannabe pimp. Andrew Tate talking about grand strategy. Oh, but we live

00:12:45.140 in a matrix, according to him. Okay, bro. Okay, bro. Oh, Harry, you're a Zoomer, you're a real

00:12:52.040 life, you're 20 years old, right? What do you guys think of Andrew Tate? Is he, like,

00:12:57.780 really cool and everyone loves him, or is he a bit 2020?

00:13:01.940 Yeah, he was, like, he was kind of big, way back when, when I was, like, actually, just

00:13:05.680 secondary. But we kind of figured out that he was retarded. He doesn't really have anything 1.00

00:13:12.720 good to say, I don't think. None of it's. Oh, well, there you go. The authentic opinion

00:13:18.100 of a Zoomer there. Andrew Tate should stick to things he knows about, like moving through 0.99

00:13:24.280 the world suffering from mild retardation. There you go. 1.00

00:13:30.120 All right, let's move on. Dubai's in a bit of trouble, because that's one of the grander

00:13:34.420 things to talk about, is that how, after Iran was struck and the Ayatollah and a lot of the

00:13:39.160 Iranian regime were blown to pieces in the very, very first salvo, that Iran struck out

00:13:46.040 all over the place, attacking nominally, supposedly, US and Israeli assets in, well, everywhere,

00:13:52.520 Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar, all the UAE, even in Jordan, even in Riyadh. There's reports

00:14:01.500 of some explosions in Riyadh, in Saudi Arabia, all over the place. In Oman, they're definitely

00:14:06.080 supposed to be friends with Oman, Iran are. So they're striking out all over the place.

00:14:11.640 And, you know, you expect it, right? Obviously. Even like the headquarters of the US Fifth

00:14:17.220 Fleet. Okay. But now it does seem like, by the end of the, by the evening on Saturday,

00:14:22.740 and all day Sunday, seems like they are striking sort of civilian infrastructure, though, in these

00:14:28.600 places. Like blowing up the runway of a civilian airport. Or like, didn't the Burj Al Arab get 1.00

00:14:38.380 hit? Or very, very close to it. Right? Individual hotels in the Emirates, or whatever, getting

00:14:44.680 hit.

00:14:45.180 Well, okay, that just seems what's going on, among loads and loads of other things. One

00:14:55.800 of the things, a broader point, I'll say is that, it is, it is big, I mean, state the

00:14:59.320 obvious, but it is quite a big thing that's going on. The amount of ordnance that has been

00:15:03.060 fired by both sides in this, the amount of missiles that have been going off from both

00:15:07.240 sides over the, over the weekend. Gigantic. Gigantic. Not really seen anything like it since

00:15:13.320 2003. Or maybe ever, really. An exchange of missiles on a grand scale. Like the Israelis 1.00

00:15:23.180 and the Americans peppering Iran all over the place, from top to bottom, all over Iran.

00:15:28.940 All sorts of stuff. It's quite a big action going down. Yeah, again, the Nothing Ever Happens

00:15:37.360 crew saying, wake me up when something happens. Well, if you don't count this, then, er,

00:15:43.320 it would have to be some sort of nuclear exchange or a mass extinction event or something before

00:15:55.060 you count it as something happening. But okay, what was the other thing? Oh, got to talk about

00:15:59.920 oil prices, really, because the Straits of Hormuz, that stretch of water going out into

00:16:05.320 the Gulf of Oman, about 20% of the world's crude oil and lots of natural gas from Qatar, about 20% of all the

00:16:16.820 world's crude goes through there in tankers. Thing is, though, interesting to note, that 90% of that

00:16:26.380 goes east, ends up in China, South Korea, Japan, mainly China. So if the Straits of Hormuz are closed,

00:16:34.980 which they are, because one or two tanks have gone through there and been hit, so the insurance

00:16:39.720 companies are like, we're not insuring any tankers going through there. So the shipping just stops,

00:16:44.520 basically, almost, entirely. China most affected. It's not like China hasn't got other ways of getting 0.97

00:16:52.380 crude. It's not like they haven't got a big oil industry of their own. The United States doesn't

00:16:59.240 need a single drop from there. It's completely self-sufficient in crude. So although it's big,

00:17:06.680 although it's important, 20% of the world's crude oil just suddenly stopping, it doesn't mean like

00:17:11.560 the whole world is going to grind to a halt or anything. You're not even close. Like Kuwait and 1.00

00:17:16.220 Saudi Arabia can get their oil west through pipelines, if they need to, and they can.

00:17:23.460 There's a way to get crude oil, again, through pipes across the Emirates into the Gulf of Oman.

00:17:29.640 So it's not like the end of the world. So there you go. Oil prices jump 10%. I mean,

00:17:35.080 that's not insignificant, but it's not crazy, is it? Like the price of a barrel of oil,

00:17:40.420 at least this morning, was still something like, I think it was in the order of $80 a barrel.

00:17:45.900 Which isn't crazy. It goes over $100 a barrel all the time. Well, not all the time, but that's

00:17:54.740 a classic benchmark thing. Has oil, is oil above or below $100 a barrel? Well, right now, despite all

00:18:00.180 of this, it's still not really close to $100 a barrel. We'll see how the markets move this morning.

00:18:06.080 I'll just let you know, I used to work for an oil trading, oil commodities trading company.

00:18:12.100 I was never a trader. I'm not going to claim I was actually a trader. I was involved in the

00:18:16.600 brokerage side of things. But nonetheless, had to know about, took it upon myself to know a fair bit

00:18:22.020 about crude oil commodities trading and things. So, okay, it's a big deal, the Straits of Hormuz and

00:18:30.520 the crude oil thing and the price of a barrel of crude and all that sort of thing. But it's not,

00:18:34.540 doesn't seem like it's, it's not tanking the world economy or anything close. Right? Most trading

00:18:40.720 desks will have factored this sort of thing in a while ago. Because they're not stupid. 0.99

00:18:46.640 Okay? I mean, it's a give and take. Some other markets will do well out of it. You know, gold 0.99

00:18:56.300 will do well. Right? I've already seen this morning that, for example, Australian oil companies

00:19:04.640 doing well. Because suddenly what they offer is of more value. For example. So, it is what

00:19:12.640 it is. I wouldn't expect, like, the world's economy to be massively affected. It will be

00:19:18.360 affected. But just not, it's not going to be some sort of implosion event or anything

00:19:22.900 like that.

00:19:27.640 All right.

00:19:31.100 This guy, chasing the deadly thud of missiles around Tel Aviv in a Kia Picanto, says some, some,

00:19:42.640 Telegraph journalist. Because it's about him, is it?

00:19:48.360 All right.

00:19:48.900 The times, the venerable times, Trump vows to press on.

00:19:53.180 There you go.

00:19:53.960 President says, plan to eradicate Iran regime is ahead of schedule.

00:19:59.860 Okay.

00:20:02.300 Tehran's reprisals, breached offences of Gulf states and Israel.

00:20:06.160 Yeah, a few getting through. Definitely a fair few getting through.

00:20:08.900 So, let's talk about, for anyone who doesn't know, anyone who didn't watch any news over

00:20:16.640 the weekend.

00:20:18.340 Saturday morning, they hit the Ayatollah's offices.

00:20:25.440 It didn't emerge until much, much later that night, right to the end of the night, UK time

00:20:29.580 anyway, that he was, in fact, dead.

00:20:31.600 All that day, it was like, is he, isn't he?

00:20:33.800 The Iranians were saying, oh, we're going to put him on TV any minute. 0.92

00:20:36.920 He's going to make a statement. He's definitely not dead.

00:20:39.400 Well, he was.

00:20:41.140 But as well as loads of the other leadership, something like 50-odd more of the leadership

00:20:46.140 are dead.

00:20:47.040 I saw this morning that Ahmadinejad has been killed.

00:20:51.020 Do anyone remember him?

00:20:51.960 He was the president quite a few years ago, quite by the beginning of the 2000s.

00:20:58.520 Loads of them, loads of them they took out.

00:21:01.640 But Iran knew he was going to die soon anyway.

00:21:04.560 He was like 85, 86, and it was possible he would get assassinated.

00:21:09.260 So, he could have died of natural causes at any moment.

00:21:11.980 So, anyway, apparently they had all sorts of things in place to replace him as the Ayatollah

00:21:17.760 quickly, if needs be.

00:21:19.620 Well, needs be.

00:21:21.340 So, they did.

00:21:21.980 Already they've got some sort of interim leader or interim committee, and they're going to

00:21:27.260 pick a permanent one very, very soon.

00:21:29.400 And apparently in Iran, as well as not just the Ayatollah, but loads and loads of other

00:21:33.300 senior roles, they've got it set up.

00:21:35.780 They've got structures in place to replace that person, should they suffer from a cruise

00:21:41.500 missile attack or something.

00:21:43.900 So, Iran have got things in place to replace the people, if and when they get taken out. 0.97

00:21:52.320 So, okay, it's well and good, isn't it, that the, well, perhaps not good, but it's

00:21:57.760 standard operating procedure in war to try and disrupt and destroy the command

00:22:05.620 structure of your enemy.

00:22:08.480 101 stuff, isn't it?

00:22:09.860 If you can sow confusion amongst your enemy's leadership, you do that.

00:22:15.720 Well, if they can just keep replacing the people there, how good, I mean, it's a difficult

00:22:24.500 strategy.

00:22:26.260 A couple of things, a couple of things analysts have said, which I thought were of note,

00:22:30.520 of interesting note, that it seems a bit odd that Iran, on that Saturday morning,

00:22:35.620 decided to hold a meeting with lots and lots of their very, very top, most senior people

00:22:42.220 in the entire government and military structure, to all meet in one place, one room essentially.

00:22:47.780 That wasn't, that wasn't a good idea.

00:22:54.380 Because even in recent years, Israel, that's how they've taken out loads of Hezbollah and 1.00

00:22:58.640 Hamas. 0.73

00:22:59.120 Their intelligence is spot on, whether it signals intelligence, you know, whether they're just

00:23:07.520 keeping tap of people's phones or whatever, or whether it's human intelligence, they've

00:23:11.920 actually got people there, literally Mossad agents, watching everyone that's going in and

00:23:15.800 out of certain buildings, even in the middle of Tehran.

00:23:17.880 One way or another, it seems like both Israeli and American intelligence are able to keep 0.53

00:23:24.880 tabs on these people, sort of kind of perfectly in real time.

00:23:30.480 And so it's not a good idea to all meet in one place if you know you're on their death

00:23:33.940 list.

00:23:34.320 But anyway, that's what Iran did on Saturday morning.

00:23:40.800 And so Israel and America took the opportunity to take them all out in one go, in one moment, 0.97

00:23:48.000 basically, and did.

00:23:52.440 And so it's coming out now, it seems, apparently it was coming out over the course of yesterday,

00:23:57.020 that that was the idea, that America would move all the assets it wanted into the region,

00:24:02.960 and then it would kick off, they would wait for the moment when they could attempt something

00:24:07.040 like that.

00:24:07.860 And that would be the moment to start the conflict, start the war.

00:24:13.120 Well, that moment came sort of immediately.

00:24:16.060 I remember when Shock and Awe started in 2003, they tried to take out Saddam.

00:24:19.560 They opened, Shock and Awe opened, with loads of attacks on Saddam's palaces all over Baghdad.

00:24:28.320 They were obviously hoping to kill him immediately. 0.97

00:24:30.760 You know, cut the head off the snake in the first instant of the thing. 0.99

00:24:34.940 But they didn't get Saddam. 0.78

00:24:36.600 They didn't get him that time.

00:24:38.680 Well, this time they did.

00:24:39.540 This time it worked.

00:24:42.700 So, OK, that's how it started.

00:24:44.520 I mean, big news to wake up to on a Saturday morning.

00:24:47.960 Big news.

00:24:50.880 But then the next thing is, isn't it?

00:24:52.600 The next thing is, even if this air campaign is completely successful in what it is attempting,

00:25:03.160 i.e., taking out everything of military note in Iran, taking out all their missiles, let's 0.92

00:25:10.780 say, even if it can achieve that, that doesn't necessarily equal a regime change.

00:25:20.280 According to Trump and Netanyahu, the plan is to just hope the Iranian people take control

00:25:30.240 of the government at a certain point.

00:25:35.480 I mean, you're relying on that.

00:25:41.120 Not a great plan, is it?

00:25:44.460 Not an amazing plan.

00:25:46.520 I mean, if that is the grand plan.

00:25:51.320 I mean, when Trump did his opening speech, a little eight-minute video that was released

00:25:58.160 from Mar-a-Lago, he's using Mar-a-Lago as the situation room, basically.

00:26:03.680 He's done it before, but anyway, that seems odd to me.

00:26:08.000 At least be in the White House, or the Pentagon.

00:26:10.740 Anyway, anyway, anyway, tiny point.

00:26:12.060 But in that video, the first eight-minute video, he said, you know, once we've done

00:26:17.780 what we're going to do, dear people of Persia, once we've done what we're going to do, go

00:26:22.940 and take your government.

00:26:23.740 It's yours for the taking.

00:26:25.420 It's like, but, Donald, what if, for whatever reason, they don't or can't still, though?

00:26:33.800 What then?

00:26:37.060 Talking to Nate about it yesterday evening for the State of Politics.

00:26:41.700 State of Politics, my other channel.

00:26:44.900 And he said, surely they've got a plan.

00:26:46.960 One of the things he said, you would think they've got a full plan.

00:26:50.920 And maybe they have.

00:26:51.980 Maybe they have got, like, a 4D, 5D chess brilliant plan ready and waiting to replace

00:26:58.080 the Mullahs and the Ayatollah, that government, that whole regime.

00:27:02.220 Maybe they've got some sort of brilliant plan for that.

00:27:04.700 I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't, though.

00:27:06.520 I wouldn't be surprised if that is the plan, just hoping the Iranian people take control. 1.00

00:27:11.700 And then just hoping there's a completely peaceful government and completely peaceful transition

00:27:16.340 to a functioning civil society.

00:27:20.840 But it seems like a bit of a long shot, doesn't it?

00:27:23.920 Unfortunately.

00:27:27.000 Because you would think that in 2003.

00:27:29.040 Oh, you're going in to take out Saddam Hussein and all his henchmen. 0.82

00:27:33.200 You're going to completely remove the Ba'athist party from Iraq.

00:27:36.660 Okay.

00:27:39.080 Well and good, I suppose, if you're a Pentagon planner.

00:27:43.340 And then what?

00:27:44.440 Oh, no.

00:27:46.580 Uh.

00:27:48.480 Uh, what?

00:27:50.920 Yeah, they didn't have...

00:27:53.480 Oh, we'll put Paul Bremer in charge.

00:27:56.220 What?

00:27:57.060 Really?

00:27:58.040 That's the plan, was it?

00:28:02.060 We'll put David Petraeus in charge.

00:28:04.280 What?

00:28:05.740 Of Iraq? 0.83

00:28:09.140 Not, again, not a great plan.

00:28:12.040 So, that's the worry.

00:28:13.320 It's what I've been saying all along, haven't I, in the run-up to this.

00:28:16.720 Yeah, get rid of the I-Tollerman regime. 1.00

00:28:18.540 Good.

00:28:19.600 There's a terrible, oppressive, murderous regime.

00:28:21.660 Okay, but...

00:28:23.280 What about the day after?

00:28:24.720 What about, you know, what comes next?

00:28:26.860 Don't want it to descend into a sectarian nightmare that lasts a generation, though. 0.71

00:28:32.020 So, what's the plan for that?

00:28:35.120 Well, at the moment, it looks like the plan is, fingers crossed, the Iranian people just 1.00

00:28:40.820 sort of magically form a government that is peaceful and works perfectly.

00:28:47.440 Oh.

00:28:51.640 Okay.

00:28:53.880 I hope, I just hope that sort of one of the things Nate said is right, that there is some

00:28:58.520 sort of brilliant plan going to come out of the Pentagon and the State Department saying,

00:29:03.680 oh, we've got this person, whether it's that Crown Prince Pahlavi or whoever, someone else.

00:29:08.680 Trump's got a couple of different, apparently, got a couple of different people in mind who

00:29:12.080 could run an interim government in Iran.

00:29:17.060 If sheik is a gamble, there's no other way of saying it, is it? 1.00

00:29:19.600 It's a political gamble to have done this.

00:29:23.540 But, I mean, there is also weight to the argument, isn't there, that it's not great to just leave

00:29:31.420 that regime in there forever, just completely condemn the 90-plus million Iranian people

00:29:36.300 to that repression forever.

00:29:40.440 That's not a great idea either, is it?

00:29:42.620 Let alone the nuke angle.

00:29:46.560 It wouldn't be great if Iran got a nuclear weapon, would it? 0.52

00:29:55.180 All right, shall we press on with this?

00:29:57.800 Oh, there's a picture.

00:29:58.580 This is outside the Iranian embassy in London.

00:30:01.720 So, of course, quick talk about then, quick few minutes talking about how popular it is.

00:30:07.360 So, of course, the Iranian diaspora, i.e. people that are from Iran,

00:30:12.500 or even second-generation people that are from Iran, like Maya Tusi or something,

00:30:16.400 the vast, vast majority of those people, as you can imagine, are against the regime

00:30:20.560 and so happy that this is happening.

00:30:22.520 Over the moon, the Atoll is dead.

00:30:24.820 Again, I don't necessarily blame them.

00:30:25.940 Well, I don't blame them at all.

00:30:27.500 So, okay.

00:30:29.320 In the rest of the world, Iranian people are happy about it.

00:30:33.600 This is outside the Iranian embassy.

00:30:35.240 This would actually be Prince's Gate in Kensington,

00:30:40.140 where the Iranian embassy siege happened in 1980.

00:30:44.240 Got a long-form bit of content about that on Epochs.

00:30:47.540 Behind the paywall.

00:30:49.460 Behind the paywall.

00:30:50.280 Bo Dade's Epochs history-themed show.

00:30:54.000 All right.

00:30:56.820 So, yeah, the diaspora will be happy.

00:30:58.680 But what about inside Iran?

00:31:00.080 Now, we know, don't we, it seems undeniable, well, I think it is undeniable,

00:31:04.600 that lots and lots of people inside Iran, probably, almost certainly, I'm comfortable to say,

00:31:12.020 the majority, maybe even the vast majority of people in Iran, are unhappy with the regime.

00:31:19.140 I mean, the economy's collapsed, inflation is through the roof, it's difficult to buy even simple things,

00:31:25.320 like bread and cheese, simple things, people going hungry almost often.

00:31:30.240 It's not great in Iran, and loads of people do blame the regime.

00:31:33.180 That's not even to touch upon the religious repression, forcing women to cover their hair and all that sort of thing.

00:31:41.160 The regime isn't popular in Iran.

00:31:44.660 Comfortable saying that.

00:31:47.620 But the other thing is, though, it does still enjoy some support.

00:31:54.500 Still, among a few million other Iranian people.

00:31:58.500 That's also true to say.

00:32:00.260 It's not 100% roundly despised by absolutely everyone.

00:32:04.440 That would be wrong to say that, wouldn't it?

00:32:06.300 There was a big rally in the middle of Tehran on, was it yesterday?

00:32:10.360 And it was big, it was massive.

00:32:12.420 I mean, it's difficult to make the argument that every single one of those people were coerced into doing that.

00:32:16.760 It doesn't look like that was the case.

00:32:19.700 In fact, it might even have a, was it, there was,

00:32:24.660 I should have bookmarked exactly where it was,

00:32:27.000 but there was one particular story that said you could see the crowds from space.

00:32:34.640 Well, it depends what satellite you're talking about.

00:32:36.560 The best satellites, you could see a single car from space.

00:32:40.160 But anyway, anyway, the point is,

00:32:42.100 there was a massive rally in Tehran of pro-regime people,

00:32:46.200 you know, crying and wailing that their beloved Ayatollah has been martyred.

00:32:50.860 Right, lots of people turned out for that.

00:32:52.760 Lots.

00:32:53.600 So,

00:32:54.920 it's not as simple as that everyone is over the moon,

00:32:58.940 that this regime is being pounded to oblivion from the sky.

00:33:04.580 I think a lot of people are, perhaps the majority,

00:33:07.380 maybe the vast majority,

00:33:08.420 but it's not everyone though.

00:33:10.840 There will still be a section of society

00:33:13.400 that are absolutely pro-the regime.

00:33:16.060 So, I mean, again, I remember in 2003 when Saddam was toppled,

00:33:22.460 once the US armoured divisions had entered Baghdad,

00:33:27.740 done thunder runs through the middle of Baghdad and liberated Baghdad,

00:33:31.540 the regime, Saddam's regime was over.

00:33:34.240 There was this iconic moment,

00:33:35.880 anyone old enough to remember will remember,

00:33:37.840 there was a giant statue of Saddam and it got pulled down.

00:33:40.780 They pulled it down.

00:33:45.060 First of all, put a US flag over the thing

00:33:47.620 and then somebody realised that was bad optics

00:33:50.480 so they put an Iraqi flag over it.

00:33:52.220 And when it was pulled down,

00:33:53.720 all the people, the people of Baghdad,

00:33:56.380 the scenes were that they were jubilant.

00:34:00.360 They were so happy, they were overjoyed

00:34:02.180 that finally their tyrant had been toppled.

00:34:06.520 They were jumping up and down on the statue

00:34:09.960 and ripping it to bits

00:34:11.240 and it seemed like, at that moment,

00:34:15.100 it seemed like, oh, politically,

00:34:16.800 this was the right thing to do.

00:34:19.000 It was the best thing to do.

00:34:20.280 We've saved these people

00:34:21.740 from a dictator and a tyrant

00:34:24.780 and purely from a political point of view,

00:34:28.220 it was righteous.

00:34:29.500 It was good and righteous,

00:34:30.440 the right thing to have done.

00:34:32.960 Okay, in that moment, that's what it looked like.

00:34:35.240 The people were happy,

00:34:37.900 universally happy to be rid of Saddam.

00:34:40.900 All right.

00:34:43.580 But then look what happened.

00:34:45.960 Okay, that jubilation lasted not very long at all.

00:34:49.460 Not very long at all

00:34:50.760 and then, quite quickly,

00:34:52.260 a sectarian nightmare that lasts a generation or more. 0.74

00:34:56.780 Would it be the same here?

00:34:58.660 All right, look, look at those people there.

00:35:00.560 They're all really happy the Aitola's gone.

00:35:02.360 Okay.

00:35:03.340 Okay, well and good.

00:35:04.300 All right, agree with you, yeah. 1.00

00:35:05.940 He was a murderous scumbag. 1.00

00:35:08.060 All right. 1.00

00:35:09.000 Now what?

00:35:10.500 Though.

00:35:13.360 Now what?

00:35:16.060 Is Iran, Persia,

00:35:18.120 going to transition

00:35:18.800 into

00:35:19.960 a perfectly working political system?

00:35:24.040 My concern is that it not only won't it,

00:35:31.140 it sort of can't.

00:35:34.200 It's such a melting pot of different peoples and ideas,

00:35:38.120 ethnicities, religions, languages,

00:35:40.600 all that sort of thing.

00:35:42.240 It'd be very, very difficult for it to just suddenly

00:35:44.620 work politically,

00:35:48.020 like Germany

00:35:49.520 or France

00:35:50.160 or the UK.

00:35:57.340 All right, well, we shall see.

00:35:58.720 I mean, getting a bit ahead of ourselves, really,

00:36:00.140 because the regime's still there,

00:36:01.620 still firing missiles all over the place.

00:36:04.800 All that is assuming that the regime does topple and fall.

00:36:08.300 It hasn't yet.

00:36:08.880 It might not.

00:36:12.860 We'll see how, really,

00:36:14.400 how resilient it is.

00:36:16.100 All right, the Guardian.

00:36:17.200 Middle East rocked by a second day of bombing.

00:36:20.780 The Express.

00:36:21.540 It's a good paper.

00:36:22.300 94,000 Brits trapped in Middle East.

00:36:25.140 The Daily Mail.

00:36:25.880 Pures slop.

00:36:26.480 Trying to pretend it's not slop,

00:36:27.520 when in fact it is utter slop.

00:36:29.700 UK draws up rescue plan

00:36:31.180 for Britons trapped in Gulf states.

00:36:32.800 OK, the iPaper.

00:36:36.040 UK planning to evacuate Britons from Middle East

00:36:38.280 as the Iran war grows.

00:36:39.280 See, that's the main angle

00:36:40.200 the British papers are going with.

00:36:42.440 Stranded.

00:36:43.060 Are you stranded in Dubai?

00:36:46.400 Look, the Burj al-Arab. 1.00

00:36:50.200 According to Andrew Tate, though,

00:36:51.360 you're living in a matrix.

00:36:53.060 It's all fake.

00:36:54.680 There's nothing going on there.

00:37:00.180 The Sun.

00:37:00.940 Wayne Rooney had a few drinks.

00:37:04.480 Escape from Dubai.

00:37:05.840 I guess it's like,

00:37:06.560 escape from New York.

00:37:07.560 Escape from Dubai.

00:37:09.800 The Star.

00:37:10.740 The Great Escape.

00:37:13.160 All right, I think you get it.

00:37:14.140 The Independent.

00:37:15.280 Three US troops killed

00:37:16.400 as attacks escalate across Middle East.

00:37:18.820 OK, the Metro.

00:37:19.600 Ugh.

00:37:21.100 Very quick, disdain camp.

00:37:22.100 Ugh.

00:37:23.360 Death throes of the tyrant. 0.95

00:37:25.100 Ahmadinejad.

00:37:25.600 Remember him?

00:37:26.060 He's dead now, apparently.

00:37:28.820 The Financial Times.

00:37:29.960 Iran seeks revenge 1.00

00:37:32.080 for Khomeini

00:37:33.380 with strikes on Israel

00:37:35.580 and Gulf allies.

00:37:38.360 First American casualties

00:37:39.520 as three soldiers are killed

00:37:40.720 and five wounded.

00:37:42.180 Disruption to shipping lanes.

00:37:44.680 Poised to drive up

00:37:45.840 global energy prices.

00:37:47.540 Trump says military campaign

00:37:48.840 is running ahead of schedule.

00:37:50.780 OK, those are the papers.

00:37:52.360 Let's have a look at our poll.

00:37:55.340 We did a poll.

00:37:56.060 Now, I can't remember

00:37:57.180 the exact wording it was,

00:37:58.420 but it was something

00:37:58.840 Iran-related.

00:38:01.120 OK, so...

00:38:03.600 We said,

00:38:04.680 Do you think the air campaign

00:38:06.200 will result in a change of regime?

00:38:10.320 OK, just to let you know

00:38:12.040 where I am on that

00:38:13.320 before I read out the results

00:38:16.820 is that I decided this morning

00:38:19.280 to go for one

00:38:20.140 that really isn't a slam dunk.

00:38:21.920 Sometimes I give you a poll,

00:38:23.060 don't I,

00:38:23.440 where it's kind of obvious

00:38:24.820 what anyone at least

00:38:25.540 watching this show

00:38:26.300 would answer.

00:38:28.440 Like,

00:38:29.560 do you like globalism

00:38:32.180 or something?

00:38:33.080 And it'd be like 95% no.

00:38:35.100 And I could go,

00:38:35.600 yeah, you're all with me.

00:38:36.780 But sometimes,

00:38:37.800 probably more often than not,

00:38:39.240 I'd like to do ones

00:38:39.880 which are a bit more ambiguous.

00:38:41.240 And that's one,

00:38:41.820 because my feeling on that,

00:38:43.620 do you think the air campaign

00:38:45.020 will result in a change of regime?

00:38:47.740 My personal take is,

00:38:49.140 I've got no idea.

00:38:51.060 I'd put it at 50-50

00:38:52.220 or maybe 60-40,

00:38:53.820 60% no.

00:38:55.160 Something like that.

00:38:56.660 It's really,

00:38:57.960 there's no right or wrong answer.

00:38:58.980 It's not clear, is it?

00:38:59.740 It's not clear to anyone.

00:39:02.020 So we'll just see what you say.

00:39:04.000 So you said,

00:39:04.920 what did you guys think?

00:39:07.320 OK,

00:39:08.640 do you think the campaign

00:39:09.640 will result in a change of regime?

00:39:11.120 Yes, 43%.

00:39:12.520 No, 29%.

00:39:14.100 Maybe 28%.

00:39:17.060 Very nearly 1,500 votes on that.

00:39:21.240 So OK,

00:39:21.660 I mean,

00:39:21.840 that does sort of reflect

00:39:22.760 my position of like,

00:39:24.180 I don't know.

00:39:27.060 A solid 28% said maybe.

00:39:29.520 Yeah,

00:39:29.720 I suppose if I was to take that poll,

00:39:31.980 I may click maybe.

00:39:33.120 I think I'd probably click maybe

00:39:34.260 if it were me.

00:39:35.920 A third of you clicked maybe on that.

00:39:38.320 Yeah.

00:39:39.380 And then the other one,

00:39:40.960 43%,

00:39:41.680 29%.

00:39:42.440 I mean,

00:39:42.780 it is a win

00:39:43.380 for the yes,

00:39:45.700 but it's not like overwhelming,

00:39:46.880 is it?

00:39:47.100 It's not like a crazy.

00:39:48.460 So yeah,

00:39:49.340 you're split on it as well.

00:39:50.760 Yeah.

00:39:52.300 We'll have to see.

00:39:53.180 We'll have to see how things play out.

00:39:55.340 The fog of war,

00:39:56.060 when things go to war,

00:39:58.260 it's just unpredictable,

00:39:59.600 isn't it?

00:40:00.780 It's very,

00:40:01.200 very difficult to predict

00:40:02.220 wars often.

00:40:04.840 Unless it's sort of

00:40:05.560 an absolutely overwhelming thing.

00:40:07.900 They could probably predict

00:40:09.100 that the US forces in 1990

00:40:11.580 could liberate Kuwait.

00:40:13.880 That's sort of

00:40:14.460 reasonably predictable,

00:40:15.540 right?

00:40:16.100 Could probably predict

00:40:17.160 that the US forces

00:40:18.340 in 2002

00:40:19.680 could take out

00:40:21.260 the Taliban.

00:40:23.500 Okay.

00:40:23.860 But this,

00:40:25.920 without any boots

00:40:27.360 on the ground,

00:40:29.280 if there were boots

00:40:30.000 on the ground,

00:40:30.360 if it was like 2003

00:40:31.240 and they'd amassed

00:40:32.140 hundreds of thousands

00:40:33.380 of the US army

00:40:34.680 and marines,

00:40:35.440 loads of special forces,

00:40:38.320 endless helicopter

00:40:40.460 attack ships

00:40:41.380 and loads and loads

00:40:42.680 of armoured divisions,

00:40:44.240 thousands and thousands

00:40:45.040 of Abrams and Bradleys

00:40:46.520 and then,

00:40:48.060 yeah,

00:40:48.240 I'd say

00:40:48.620 80,

00:40:49.940 90 percent,

00:40:50.640 yeah,

00:40:50.820 will change the regime.

00:40:51.540 More and more,

00:40:51.960 95,

00:40:52.320 almost 100 percent,

00:40:53.520 yeah.

00:40:54.340 But they're not doing that,

00:40:55.200 are they?

00:40:55.380 It's very different.

00:40:56.100 So this hangs in the balance,

00:40:57.400 I feel.

00:40:58.180 Anyway,

00:40:59.040 the poll seems to reflect that.

00:41:00.920 Well over 1,500 now,

00:41:02.580 so,

00:41:03.640 you know,

00:41:03.800 the poll does reflect

00:41:04.660 my feeling of,

00:41:06.540 I don't know,

00:41:08.540 maybe.

00:41:11.580 Cool.

00:41:12.140 All right.

00:41:12.540 Well,

00:41:13.520 once again,

00:41:15.900 not a complete

00:41:16.620 divergence

00:41:18.380 between my take

00:41:19.280 and that of you guys.

00:41:22.280 All right.

00:41:22.840 Well,

00:41:23.380 let's move on then.

00:41:24.340 Shall we have a quick look

00:41:25.040 at the,

00:41:25.400 the actual

00:41:26.720 websites?

00:41:28.660 Perhaps even something else,

00:41:31.200 news from something else?

00:41:32.160 Probably not.

00:41:32.720 It's such a,

00:41:33.480 it's going to be Iran, 0.96

00:41:35.100 wall to the wall,

00:41:36.020 wall to wall,

00:41:36.800 for days now,

00:41:37.580 isn't it?

00:41:37.780 Maybe weeks.

00:41:39.380 Get used to me talking about Iran 0.98

00:41:40.840 every morning,

00:41:42.360 because it'll probably be,

00:41:43.240 probably be what it is.

00:41:44.640 After a while,

00:41:45.200 I'll try and taper it off,

00:41:46.200 if possible.

00:41:47.540 Talk about other things

00:41:48.540 that are in the news,

00:41:49.100 if possible.

00:41:51.160 But,

00:41:52.080 okay.

00:41:53.040 So here we go.

00:41:53.780 Israel and Hezbollah 0.79

00:41:54.740 in Lebanon exchange fire

00:41:56.220 as conflict widens

00:41:57.280 after attack on Iran.

00:41:58.520 Yeah,

00:41:58.820 so part of the news is that

00:41:59.960 Israel is also struck

00:42:02.120 into Lebanon,

00:42:03.540 because Hezbollah 0.52

00:42:04.160 and Iran

00:42:05.460 were always,

00:42:09.240 you know,

00:42:09.800 won the same thing.

00:42:10.740 Hezbollah was a proxy 1.00

00:42:11.880 of Iran,

00:42:12.560 wasn't it?

00:42:12.900 So,

00:42:13.540 yeah,

00:42:16.720 well,

00:42:16.880 it sort of makes sense,

00:42:17.780 doesn't it?

00:42:18.020 It was sort of,

00:42:18.600 that was sort of,

00:42:19.280 one of the obvious things

00:42:20.280 that were likely to happen,

00:42:22.000 is that tensions

00:42:23.240 between Israel

00:42:24.760 and Hezbollah

00:42:25.660 would flare up again.

00:42:28.700 Obviously,

00:42:29.040 Israel would want 1.00

00:42:29.640 to annihilate Hezbollah 0.96

00:42:30.960 down to every last 0.99

00:42:31.820 one of their soldiers,

00:42:33.060 if they could.

00:42:36.280 Okay.

00:42:36.720 RAF responding

00:42:39.240 to suspected drone strike

00:42:41.040 at UK base in Cyprus,

00:42:42.420 MOD says.

00:42:43.680 Yeah,

00:42:43.940 that was one of the things

00:42:44.740 actually that made

00:42:45.680 Keir Starmer

00:42:47.160 and the British government

00:42:48.060 change their mind slightly,

00:42:49.160 is that there was reports

00:42:50.380 that a drone or two

00:42:53.720 had hit

00:42:55.860 our RAF base in Cyprus,

00:42:58.600 and therefore

00:42:59.440 our governments

00:43:00.100 have changed their mind.

00:43:07.420 Whether true or not,

00:43:08.280 that's quite a long-range drone,

00:43:09.740 isn't it,

00:43:10.060 to hit Cyprus.

00:43:11.860 If,

00:43:12.320 if it flew directly

00:43:13.340 from mainland Iran,

00:43:15.400 maybe not,

00:43:15.900 who knows,

00:43:16.220 I don't know,

00:43:16.660 I don't really know

00:43:17.620 the details all about that,

00:43:18.700 I'm not sure anyone does

00:43:19.400 particularly in massive detail.

00:43:23.680 In the wide world,

00:43:24.660 I mean,

00:43:24.880 in the press,

00:43:25.380 in the chattering classes,

00:43:26.400 like us.

00:43:26.780 Allies of US

00:43:28.560 in the Gulf

00:43:29.280 bear brunt

00:43:29.920 of Iran attacks.

00:43:30.940 Yeah,

00:43:32.060 like Bahrain,

00:43:35.000 Kuwait,

00:43:36.420 Qatar,

00:43:38.060 the UAE,

00:43:40.740 all of them.

00:43:42.220 Iran's regime 0.62

00:43:42.960 is still intact.

00:43:44.820 The coming days

00:43:45.580 will show

00:43:45.960 if it can hold out.

00:43:46.880 Well,

00:43:47.040 that's the thing,

00:43:48.100 isn't it?

00:43:48.240 That's the key thing

00:43:48.860 at the moment,

00:43:49.680 is that the regime

00:43:50.800 is still in place.

00:43:54.760 Can it,

00:43:55.360 will it last forever?

00:43:56.000 Could it last for weeks

00:43:56.760 and weeks and weeks

00:43:57.520 just keep replacing

00:43:58.900 all their top brass

00:43:59.780 after they're killed?

00:44:01.040 Just keep doing that 0.97

00:44:01.800 almost endlessly

00:44:02.600 and keep control

00:44:04.180 of the streets?

00:44:07.180 Don't want to sound

00:44:07.860 like a broken record,

00:44:08.600 but I really don't know.

00:44:09.720 It could be,

00:44:10.540 couldn't it,

00:44:10.840 over the coming week,

00:44:12.140 like in a few days' time,

00:44:13.740 that there's mass risings

00:44:15.120 all the way across Iran

00:44:16.400 and those people

00:44:19.360 aren't put down

00:44:20.340 by force.

00:44:22.180 They aren't just shot

00:44:23.040 in the thousands

00:44:24.220 on the streets

00:44:25.140 and they do take

00:44:26.660 control of

00:44:27.420 the state.

00:44:29.000 They do take control

00:44:29.800 of,

00:44:30.240 or at least

00:44:30.820 key government buildings,

00:44:33.600 key military buildings

00:44:34.980 and sites.

00:44:35.980 Just the normal people,

00:44:37.080 mobs,

00:44:38.160 take control of it.

00:44:39.460 Well,

00:44:42.540 that might end in,

00:44:43.440 well,

00:44:43.580 that would end in,

00:44:44.340 in the immediate,

00:44:45.620 would be,

00:44:47.400 sort of,

00:44:47.780 a very,

00:44:48.280 very,

00:44:48.540 very chaotic,

00:44:49.720 fluid thing,

00:44:50.740 but at least then

00:44:52.300 the regime,

00:44:53.380 in inverted commas,

00:44:54.600 if nothing else,

00:44:56.100 is removed.

00:44:56.960 But then that,

00:45:00.080 that power vacuum,

00:45:01.860 power vacuums aren't good.

00:45:04.080 Power vacuums are terrible.

00:45:06.560 We'll end in tears.

00:45:09.200 Power vacuums are,

00:45:11.280 historically speaking,

00:45:12.540 very,

00:45:12.900 very bad things.

00:45:15.740 So,

00:45:16.500 if,

00:45:17.080 if just the people,

00:45:18.160 just mobs,

00:45:18.760 did rise up and

00:45:19.720 take all the key

00:45:20.900 government buildings

00:45:21.640 and everything,

00:45:22.440 take control of them,

00:45:23.920 you would want

00:45:24.840 that power vacuum

00:45:27.620 to be filled

00:45:28.520 as quickly as possible.

00:45:32.160 Ideally,

00:45:32.680 with the right people,

00:45:33.680 but,

00:45:34.760 again,

00:45:35.080 that's all a bit of a hope

00:45:35.860 and a prayer,

00:45:36.400 isn't it?

00:45:36.680 It's all a bit of a hope

00:45:37.420 and a prayer that

00:45:38.040 it would play out

00:45:39.260 perfectly like that.

00:45:42.160 Okay.

00:45:43.480 Oil prices rise.

00:45:44.400 There's one thing

00:45:44.880 which isn't about Iran

00:45:45.840 in the news this morning.

00:45:47.200 Major changes to asylum systems

00:45:48.680 set to come into force.

00:45:49.980 Yeah,

00:45:50.120 it's a bit twiddling

00:45:51.140 around the edges,

00:45:52.020 but,

00:45:52.700 they're saying that,

00:45:54.660 if you're a refugee,

00:45:58.760 if you've claimed

00:45:59.220 refugee status

00:46:00.220 in the UK,

00:46:01.500 it'll be reviewed

00:46:02.260 every 30 months.

00:46:06.140 I mean,

00:46:06.720 great.

00:46:09.700 And then,

00:46:10.460 if you,

00:46:10.800 if they realise

00:46:11.840 that your country

00:46:12.520 of origin

00:46:12.900 isn't actually

00:46:13.740 a danger,

00:46:15.660 or you're not

00:46:16.260 actually a refugee,

00:46:18.520 then,

00:46:19.300 you'll get deported.

00:46:20.680 I mean,

00:46:20.920 it's kind of

00:46:21.480 tweaking around

00:46:22.800 the edges.

00:46:23.540 And I don't trust

00:46:24.240 that they really

00:46:24.940 will deport

00:46:25.420 many of these

00:46:25.840 people anyway.

00:46:27.620 Because that person,

00:46:28.460 whoever it is,

00:46:29.080 would appeal,

00:46:31.460 they would get

00:46:32.040 human rights lawyers

00:46:33.080 to appeal for them

00:46:34.140 endlessly,

00:46:35.640 appeal to the

00:46:37.140 ECHR,

00:46:37.980 whatever,

00:46:38.900 and we end up

00:46:39.500 not deporting

00:46:40.300 loads of people

00:46:40.780 still,

00:46:41.240 ultimately.

00:46:43.080 Yeah,

00:46:43.340 a little story here,

00:46:44.160 a horrible little story.

00:46:45.180 Deadly Texas

00:46:45.860 bar shooting,

00:46:47.200 potentially act of

00:46:48.140 terrorism,

00:46:48.680 says FBI.

00:46:49.140 So in

00:46:49.600 Austin,

00:46:50.440 Texas, 0.96

00:46:52.520 some black guy 0.99

00:46:54.400 shot up a bar 0.99

00:46:55.260 killing three people.

00:46:59.100 I think one of them 0.99

00:47:00.020 is him though, 1.00

00:47:00.600 so killing two people 0.99

00:47:01.400 but wounding a bunch

00:47:02.220 of others.

00:47:06.140 He was wearing

00:47:06.880 a sweater

00:47:08.080 that said

00:47:08.680 something about

00:47:09.740 Allah on it.

00:47:11.260 I am the property

00:47:12.140 of Allah,

00:47:12.900 or something like that.

00:47:13.660 It seems like

00:47:15.420 it may well be

00:47:16.360 in some sort

00:47:17.620 of retaliation

00:47:18.400 for the action

00:47:19.980 going on in Persia,

00:47:21.160 but,

00:47:23.340 so that is a story.

00:47:28.640 Okay,

00:47:29.520 nothing particularly

00:47:31.720 different in there.

00:47:33.020 Let's have a look

00:47:33.420 at the Sky News.

00:47:34.780 Their RAF base

00:47:35.560 in Cyprus

00:47:36.060 hit by suspected

00:47:36.880 drone strike.

00:47:38.640 Well,

00:47:40.300 okay,

00:47:41.680 Iran flailing out 1.00

00:47:42.820 all over the place.

00:47:43.660 sort of flailing

00:47:46.600 around,

00:47:47.800 I would say.

00:47:49.980 One of the things,

00:47:50.580 one of the things

00:47:51.020 I've noticed,

00:47:52.360 I haven't seen much

00:47:53.460 or anything really

00:47:54.340 about Iranian

00:47:55.920 fast jets,

00:47:58.040 fighter jets,

00:47:58.880 interceptors.

00:47:59.900 I haven't really seen

00:48:00.820 any of that.

00:48:04.000 Like the skies

00:48:05.160 above the UAE

00:48:06.300 or Doha

00:48:07.160 with Iranian jets.

00:48:09.540 Either

00:48:09.860 they didn't really

00:48:10.960 have many

00:48:11.380 in the first place

00:48:12.240 or the ones

00:48:13.700 they have

00:48:13.960 were taken out

00:48:14.680 straight away

00:48:15.400 or

00:48:16.380 they're actually 0.98

00:48:17.380 crappy

00:48:17.780 sort of 1970s,

00:48:18.920 1980s era

00:48:20.160 ex-Soviet ones

00:48:21.320 and they're just,

00:48:22.360 there's no point

00:48:23.080 because F-35s 1.00

00:48:25.580 and F-22s 0.98

00:48:26.500 or whatever,

00:48:27.800 F-18s,

00:48:28.700 will just take them

00:48:29.380 out immediately.

00:48:31.060 Or missiles,

00:48:31.780 anti-aircraft missiles,

00:48:33.380 batteries,

00:48:34.160 will just take them

00:48:34.740 out immediately.

00:48:36.420 Some 1970s Soviet thing,

00:48:38.220 there's no point really.

00:48:40.140 Anyway,

00:48:41.120 it doesn't seem like

00:48:41.760 the Iranian air force

00:48:43.240 is of any consequence.

00:48:49.360 And as for all the missiles

00:48:50.460 they've got,

00:48:50.900 I mean this is something

00:48:51.440 that should be talked

00:48:52.140 about a little bit,

00:48:53.020 probably talk about this

00:48:53.740 more in the coming days.

00:48:55.340 But they've got

00:48:56.060 all sorts of different

00:48:57.180 type of missiles,

00:48:58.020 right,

00:48:58.420 you've got

00:48:58.880 just like

00:48:59.880 drones,

00:49:02.980 just relatively small,

00:49:05.900 like an unmanned

00:49:06.620 drone thing. 0.92

00:49:08.180 And they go very slowly,

00:49:09.380 they go like

00:49:09.780 120 mile an hour,

00:49:10.920 150 mile an hour,

00:49:12.500 i.e. very, very slowly.

00:49:15.480 Just right along.

00:49:17.700 And then you've got

00:49:18.640 a whole suite

00:49:19.960 of different types

00:49:20.700 of missiles,

00:49:22.380 various sizes

00:49:23.240 that go various speeds.

00:49:24.600 But the fastest ones

00:49:28.260 they've got

00:49:28.500 are so-called

00:49:28.940 hypersonic.

00:49:30.840 Because then you think

00:49:31.380 supersonic just means

00:49:32.280 going faster

00:49:32.720 than the speed of sound,

00:49:33.400 which is what,

00:49:34.320 760 odd

00:49:35.780 miles per hour

00:49:37.580 is supersonic.

00:49:41.360 But then they've got

00:49:42.080 ones that they call

00:49:42.660 hypersonic.

00:49:44.220 And those ones go

00:49:44.960 at like,

00:49:45.620 I don't know,

00:49:46.080 what, like Mach 5

00:49:46.900 or something,

00:49:47.500 correct me if I'm wrong,

00:49:48.300 but in that ballpark.

00:49:49.460 Five times the speed of sound.

00:49:51.080 Thousands and thousands

00:49:52.000 of miles an hour.

00:49:54.600 Now those ones

00:49:56.320 are quite difficult,

00:49:57.720 I believe,

00:49:58.580 for various intercepts,

00:50:01.360 like Patriot,

00:50:01.880 or all sorts of types

00:50:02.800 of different

00:50:03.320 anti-missile missiles.

00:50:05.300 The hypersonic ones

00:50:06.280 are difficult to shoot down

00:50:07.100 because they're going

00:50:07.540 so fast.

00:50:10.400 And everyone knows

00:50:11.380 that Iran has got some.

00:50:12.220 They fired some

00:50:12.760 on Israel last summer,

00:50:13.640 didn't they?

00:50:15.000 There doesn't seem to,

00:50:15.700 so far hasn't been

00:50:16.620 a massive amount

00:50:17.600 of those.

00:50:18.840 But we know

00:50:19.400 Iran's got them. 0.94

00:50:21.000 So they're waiting,

00:50:22.460 they're saving those.

00:50:23.340 So they will have

00:50:25.300 a finite amount,

00:50:26.240 even if they've got

00:50:26.740 a stockpile of lots.

00:50:28.120 There'll still be

00:50:28.800 a finite amount.

00:50:30.700 Whether they're saving

00:50:31.420 those to shoot at

00:50:32.440 the US aircraft carriers

00:50:33.900 or particular targets

00:50:35.940 in Qatar

00:50:38.240 or UAE

00:50:41.060 or into Israel itself.

00:50:43.260 Are they saving those

00:50:44.640 for a particular moment?

00:50:45.880 I don't know.

00:50:50.600 As sort of flailing around

00:50:51.900 as Iran is,

00:50:53.420 it also though seems

00:50:54.920 that they do have

00:50:56.040 some sort of plan,

00:50:57.340 some sort of strategy.

00:51:00.780 We'll see how it plays out,

00:51:01.800 won't we?

00:51:02.000 We'll see how it all plays out.

00:51:03.480 All right.

00:51:04.160 I didn't realise we're actually

00:51:04.880 getting towards the top of the hour.

00:51:05.720 That went quickly.

00:51:07.660 That 50 minutes

00:51:08.620 felt like 10,

00:51:09.760 15 to me.

00:51:10.560 All right.

00:51:13.260 Well, it's just

00:51:13.620 wall-to-wall Iran. 0.93

00:51:14.720 So,

00:51:15.840 there was a tiny bit

00:51:16.640 of slop in the sun

00:51:17.640 I thought was

00:51:18.360 mildly interesting.

00:51:19.480 Look,

00:51:19.600 Ahmadinejad.

00:51:21.400 Looking old.

00:51:22.540 So,

00:51:22.760 a tiny bit of slop.

00:51:23.540 Ian Huntley's still not dead.

00:51:25.960 Still in a bad way,

00:51:26.940 but not actually dead.

00:51:28.760 Something about strippers. 0.97

00:51:30.020 Brilliant.

00:51:32.300 Iran.

00:51:32.960 What was the bit of slop

00:51:33.680 I was interested in?

00:51:34.720 Oh,

00:51:35.700 Epstein's

00:51:37.560 Western Ranch.

00:51:39.520 Just a story about how

00:51:42.660 the police

00:51:43.420 or the FBI

00:51:43.920 or whoever

00:51:44.740 sort of probably

00:51:45.960 didn't search it properly.

00:51:47.980 There might have been

00:51:48.320 all sorts of evidence

00:51:48.960 there missed.

00:51:49.700 Oh,

00:51:49.820 there we go.

00:51:50.260 Here we go.

00:51:50.780 Just to mention this

00:51:51.760 shooting in Austin.

00:51:54.900 That guy.

00:51:57.260 Look,

00:51:57.880 this guy.

00:51:58.560 He said

00:51:59.060 Property of Allah

00:51:59.840 on his top.

00:52:01.860 Okay,

00:52:02.160 he doesn't look

00:52:02.580 particularly Persian,

00:52:04.120 does he?

00:52:06.980 He's obviously

00:52:07.580 a Muslim though.

00:52:08.200 Property of Allah

00:52:09.860 with his gun there

00:52:11.520 going into a bar

00:52:13.460 in Austin,

00:52:14.880 Texas

00:52:15.180 shooting people up. 1.00

00:52:18.660 These freaks. 0.99

00:52:21.560 Alright,

00:52:22.080 well,

00:52:22.440 that is nearly the hour

00:52:23.380 with the super chats

00:52:24.560 and everything.

00:52:25.100 Should we just have

00:52:25.580 a quick couple of minutes

00:52:26.520 of talking about

00:52:27.040 on this day in history?

00:52:28.860 Quick couple of minutes.

00:52:29.660 I like doing that.

00:52:30.260 You guys seem to like

00:52:30.860 that section.

00:52:32.100 Okay,

00:52:32.380 on this day,

00:52:32.840 on the 2nd of March,

00:52:34.420 throughout the centuries,

00:52:35.300 what happened?

00:52:35.720 In 1791,

00:52:37.180 long distance communication

00:52:38.240 speeds up

00:52:38.840 with the unveiling

00:52:39.620 of a semaphore machine

00:52:41.040 in Paris.

00:52:44.260 On this day in 1796,

00:52:45.840 Napoleon Bonaparte

00:52:46.600 is appointed

00:52:47.200 Commander-in-Chief

00:52:48.000 of the French Army

00:52:49.200 in Italy.

00:52:50.460 Yeah,

00:52:50.680 great.

00:52:51.000 I've got loads of content

00:52:51.660 on Epochs

00:52:52.880 and History Bro

00:52:53.480 all about the career

00:52:54.260 and life of Napoleon.

00:52:56.220 That campaign

00:52:57.800 of 1796-97,

00:53:00.780 that really put

00:53:01.500 General Bonaparte

00:53:02.400 on the map.

00:53:06.180 It's like the Battle

00:53:06.920 of Lodi.

00:53:07.940 A number of battles

00:53:08.560 in that campaign

00:53:09.260 where he humbled

00:53:10.660 a number of different armies.

00:53:13.920 That was when he first

00:53:14.740 burst onto the scene,

00:53:15.680 really.

00:53:16.100 I mean,

00:53:16.280 he's already been around,

00:53:17.060 but this is when

00:53:17.900 the whole rest of the world

00:53:19.140 or the whole rest of Europe

00:53:19.940 woke up and was like,

00:53:20.620 oh,

00:53:20.760 this guy does war differently.

00:53:23.900 He's a whole different prospect.

00:53:26.540 He's not doing it

00:53:27.320 in the gentlemanly manner.

00:53:28.940 He's attacking us

00:53:29.800 when we didn't expect it.

00:53:30.920 That's not fair.

00:53:32.400 He's attacking us

00:53:33.300 from all different angles

00:53:34.280 at different times

00:53:36.240 and marching

00:53:38.060 really fast

00:53:39.160 and attacking us

00:53:39.920 where we didn't think

00:53:40.540 he would even be.

00:53:41.540 All that sort of thing.

00:53:42.340 We've got a new Caesar

00:53:43.220 on our hands.

00:53:45.960 Yeah,

00:53:46.460 the Italian campaign.

00:53:48.480 Very,

00:53:49.040 very interesting.

00:53:49.660 Okay,

00:53:49.920 on this day in 1807,

00:53:51.820 US Congress

00:53:52.340 bans the slave trade

00:53:53.360 within the US

00:53:54.040 effective the 1st of January,

00:53:55.660 1808.

00:53:57.000 Yeah,

00:53:57.200 so a bit like the Brits.

00:53:58.460 Before you sort of

00:53:59.720 make all slavery illegal,

00:54:01.580 emancipating anyone

00:54:03.140 who is currently a slave

00:54:04.240 first,

00:54:05.840 years before,

00:54:06.820 you ban

00:54:07.400 the trade of it first.

00:54:10.460 So you live in a world

00:54:11.420 where there are slaves

00:54:12.140 and you can buy and sell slaves.

00:54:13.900 First,

00:54:14.320 you just ban

00:54:15.000 buying and selling of slaves

00:54:16.360 and then later

00:54:17.940 you emancipate anyone 0.89

00:54:19.460 who's still living

00:54:20.400 who is a slave. 0.55

00:54:22.840 So,

00:54:23.400 yeah,

00:54:23.640 1807

00:54:24.480 in the United States.

00:54:25.200 On this day in 1888,

00:54:27.520 the Convention of Constantinople

00:54:28.760 is signed

00:54:29.240 guaranteeing

00:54:30.120 free maritime passage

00:54:31.480 through the Suez Canal

00:54:32.380 during war and peace.

00:54:34.380 That's interesting.

00:54:35.420 Why is the Suez Canal

00:54:36.380 being controlled

00:54:38.920 from Constantinople?

00:54:43.160 Well,

00:54:43.420 it's the Ottoman Empire,

00:54:44.320 isn't it?

00:54:44.680 It's the Ottoman Empire.

00:54:47.500 Any Muslim

00:54:48.240 try and tells you,

00:54:48.940 particularly a Turk,

00:54:50.840 try and complain

00:54:51.700 about imperialism

00:54:52.780 and colonialism.

00:54:53.540 Someone like

00:54:55.340 Cenk Uygur

00:54:55.880 moan about colonialism.

00:54:59.560 Get a clue,

00:55:00.380 read a book.

00:55:01.820 Okay,

00:55:02.220 1946,

00:55:03.280 Ho Chi Minh 0.56

00:55:03.780 is elected

00:55:04.340 President of North Vietnam.

00:55:07.120 Ho Chi Minh,

00:55:07.740 very interesting,

00:55:08.600 obviously, 0.99

00:55:09.240 filthy communist 1.00

00:55:09.860 in my opinion. 0.99

00:55:10.940 Very,

00:55:11.500 very interesting

00:55:11.900 person in life though.

00:55:13.400 Lived through

00:55:13.840 a whole number of things.

00:55:15.200 Did actually live

00:55:15.780 to see the end

00:55:16.220 of the Vietnam War,

00:55:16.900 did he?

00:55:18.340 Anyway,

00:55:19.440 1956,

00:55:20.240 French-Morocco,

00:55:21.140 Moroccan agreement

00:55:22.040 signed in Paris

00:55:22.900 since the Treaty of Fez

00:55:24.440 declaring independence

00:55:25.360 of Morocco

00:55:25.940 from France.

00:55:27.300 Yeah,

00:55:27.440 France wants to make 0.95

00:55:28.460 Morocco

00:55:29.020 just one more bit of France.

00:55:32.180 Yeah,

00:55:32.400 good idea,

00:55:33.180 yeah.

00:55:33.720 Make places like

00:55:34.780 Morocco and Algeria

00:55:35.980 just one more

00:55:36.780 department of France.

00:55:41.220 Weird.

00:55:42.500 Alright,

00:55:42.740 on this day in 1972,

00:55:44.720 Jean-Berdel

00:55:45.880 Bokassa

00:55:47.520 appoints himself

00:55:49.620 President for Life

00:55:50.560 of the Central

00:55:51.440 African Republic.

00:55:52.160 Yeah, 0.97

00:55:52.580 this guy's mad.

00:55:54.300 This guy's 1.00

00:55:54.620 absolutely insane. 0.99

00:55:55.980 Almost a

00:55:56.740 cliched example

00:55:57.700 of an African leader 1.00

00:55:58.800 who is mad. 1.00

00:56:03.060 Completely drunk

00:56:04.500 on power.

00:56:06.240 Completely drunk.

00:56:08.300 Made himself

00:56:08.740 an emperor.

00:56:09.120 Tried to

00:56:10.120 model it

00:56:12.120 on Napoleon's

00:56:13.540 coronation

00:56:14.140 when Napoleon

00:56:15.840 declared himself

00:56:16.480 an emperor.

00:56:17.360 Not merely a king

00:56:18.160 or not merely a general

00:56:19.500 or first consul

00:56:20.620 but an emperor.

00:56:21.960 Okay,

00:56:22.280 mate.

00:56:22.920 Yeah.

00:56:24.080 I was also guilty

00:56:24.720 of loads and loads

00:56:25.560 of butchery

00:56:26.280 and killing 0.99

00:56:27.380 and genocide.

00:56:28.600 Even personally 0.99

00:56:29.200 killing school kids 0.99

00:56:30.180 apparently. 1.00

00:56:33.120 Mad. 0.95

00:56:34.320 Mad.

00:56:35.820 On this day

00:56:36.380 in the year 2002,

00:56:37.680 US invasion 0.63

00:56:38.220 of Afghanistan,

00:56:39.440 US conventional

00:56:40.060 forces first deployed

00:56:41.100 as part of

00:56:41.620 Operation Anaconda.

00:56:43.220 Okay,

00:56:43.520 there you go.

00:56:44.120 Alright,

00:56:44.380 interesting.

00:56:45.260 Alright,

00:56:45.580 shall we have a look

00:56:46.100 at the rumble rants

00:56:47.320 and super chats?

00:56:49.120 We've got three rumble

00:56:49.880 rants here.

00:56:50.540 Luke,

00:56:50.840 Luke St. 91

00:56:53.680 or Luke Street 91,

00:56:54.860 I don't know

00:56:55.160 how you want that read.

00:56:56.040 He said,

00:56:56.780 there's a theory

00:56:57.680 that the reason

00:56:58.280 why Iran attacked 0.98

00:56:59.280 the civilian,

00:57:02.200 like civilian targets

00:57:03.140 I suppose,

00:57:04.460 is that they were

00:57:06.360 hoping to get

00:57:07.060 these countries

00:57:07.640 to ask Trump

00:57:08.540 to de-escalate

00:57:09.480 but now looks like

00:57:10.960 they're going to

00:57:11.380 join in.

00:57:12.200 Yeah,

00:57:12.340 it's always a dodgy

00:57:13.080 plan that,

00:57:13.640 isn't it,

00:57:13.840 to attack people

00:57:14.700 to get them

00:57:15.200 to be on your side.

00:57:18.020 Dodgy tactic,

00:57:18.880 that.

00:57:20.540 Puts me in mind

00:57:21.240 of Napoleon

00:57:21.720 attacking the Russians. 0.73

00:57:23.660 I'll go to war 1.00

00:57:24.320 with you 0.97

00:57:24.720 so that you will

00:57:25.360 be on my side 0.98

00:57:25.960 so I beat you

00:57:26.680 and then you're

00:57:27.140 on my side.

00:57:30.380 Isn't it more likely

00:57:31.280 to make them

00:57:31.880 hate you even more?

00:57:34.800 Yeah.

00:57:36.240 I mean,

00:57:36.480 it's a good point

00:57:36.860 and maybe you're right

00:57:37.460 but it's a long shot,

00:57:39.500 isn't it?

00:57:42.880 It's like,

00:57:43.400 you really don't like me

00:57:44.320 so I'm going to 0.99

00:57:44.740 beat you up 1.00

00:57:45.340 until you do.

00:57:46.980 What?

00:57:48.880 Same person,

00:57:49.740 Luke St. 91,

00:57:51.160 Luke Street 91,

00:57:52.600 it might be

00:57:53.360 St. Luke,

00:57:54.180 alright,

00:57:54.640 says,

00:57:55.200 people think

00:57:56.180 it's going to be

00:57:56.780 a mix of

00:57:57.620 former people

00:57:58.360 from the old government

00:57:59.320 switching sides

00:58:00.060 for immunity

00:58:00.680 and the ex-prince

00:58:01.960 to create

00:58:02.440 temporary government

00:58:03.320 as they transition power.

00:58:04.680 Yeah,

00:58:04.820 that's sort of

00:58:05.260 the most realistic

00:58:05.960 something like that,

00:58:07.400 isn't it?

00:58:08.440 Yeah,

00:58:08.720 people that are

00:58:09.080 already there,

00:58:09.520 like Venezuela,

00:58:10.240 like what Trump

00:58:10.800 did in Venezuela,

00:58:11.780 all the people

00:58:12.200 that are in the government,

00:58:12.800 you can stay

00:58:13.320 as long as you

00:58:13.800 start playing

00:58:14.320 by my tune.

00:58:16.400 Okay.

00:58:17.460 Seems,

00:58:18.000 so far,

00:58:18.820 seems to have

00:58:19.440 worked quite well

00:58:20.020 in Venezuela.

00:58:21.840 It didn't work

00:58:22.620 very well in Iraq

00:58:23.580 when they didn't

00:58:24.020 do that,

00:58:24.360 right?

00:58:24.500 When they,

00:58:24.840 every single person

00:58:25.740 that was involved

00:58:26.360 in Saddam's government,

00:58:27.580 all the way down,

00:58:28.920 every single one,

00:58:30.300 just sweep you aside, 1.00

00:58:31.360 get rid of you. 1.00

00:58:32.340 That was terrible. 0.98

00:58:34.420 That caused 0.77

00:58:35.240 a bigger power vacuum

00:58:37.420 than necessary

00:58:38.220 and was disastrous.

00:58:39.820 So maybe,

00:58:40.420 you're quite right,

00:58:41.060 they'll,

00:58:41.700 maybe that is what

00:58:42.440 they'll do,

00:58:42.760 something like that.

00:58:43.820 Okay.

00:58:44.640 Busted Brian says,

00:58:46.820 Raza Pallavi

00:58:47.700 claims to have

00:58:48.680 already prepped

00:58:49.940 a provisional

00:58:50.440 government body,

00:58:51.380 provisional governmental

00:58:52.300 body,

00:58:53.160 okay,

00:58:53.840 and that they are ready

00:58:54.880 with an ironclad plan

00:58:56.960 for the switchover.

00:58:58.080 I find it hard

00:58:59.600 to believe

00:59:00.020 you haven't heard

00:59:00.660 already.

00:59:01.020 Oh no,

00:59:01.320 I mean,

00:59:01.680 I do,

00:59:02.440 I do,

00:59:02.880 I do know about that

00:59:03.860 but,

00:59:05.380 okay,

00:59:05.780 a couple of words

00:59:06.420 then about that

00:59:07.080 crown prince Pallavi.

00:59:09.340 Yeah,

00:59:09.800 he says this,

00:59:10.340 he's been saying

00:59:10.800 this sort of thing

00:59:11.300 for years,

00:59:12.640 his whole life.

00:59:14.200 He's been saying,

00:59:14.740 I'm just waiting

00:59:15.200 for the moment

00:59:15.820 where I can go back

00:59:16.920 to Iran

00:59:17.380 and,

00:59:19.020 yeah,

00:59:19.640 I know all about it,

00:59:20.380 I know all about it.

00:59:22.800 But the thing is,

00:59:23.980 lots of people,

00:59:25.620 even in Iran,

00:59:26.680 many support him,

00:59:27.460 many think he's the guy

00:59:28.640 but lots of people don't.

00:59:31.320 Lots of people like,

00:59:32.220 the Shah was terrible, 0.98

00:59:33.160 we didn't like the Shah,

00:59:34.860 we don't want a return

00:59:35.780 to something like that

00:59:36.680 and this Pallavi guy

00:59:38.580 is not,

00:59:39.640 is not the guy.

00:59:41.080 A lot of people say that,

00:59:42.100 think that.

00:59:43.000 Trump himself

00:59:43.860 has been very lukewarm

00:59:45.860 about the crown prince.

00:59:48.360 Before now,

00:59:49.040 many times

00:59:49.660 they've been asked about it,

00:59:50.620 like if you did anything in,

00:59:52.060 if you tried to do anything

00:59:53.140 in Iran,

00:59:54.700 Mr. Trump,

00:59:55.580 if the regime fell

00:59:56.780 one day,

00:59:58.520 what about

00:59:59.140 Crown Prince Pallavi,

01:00:00.400 would you,

01:00:01.400 he's the guy,

01:00:02.100 right,

01:00:02.560 and Trump's always been like,

01:00:03.860 no,

01:00:04.240 I don't know,

01:00:04.540 I'm not sure,

01:00:04.960 not really,

01:00:05.520 he'll really lukewarm

01:00:07.100 about him.

01:00:09.420 Like the State Department

01:00:10.600 isn't touting him,

01:00:13.700 he can talk all he wants

01:00:14.980 about having an ironclad

01:00:16.440 provisional government

01:00:17.500 ready to rock and roll,

01:00:18.980 it's easy to say

01:00:19.700 something like that,

01:00:20.200 isn't it?

01:00:20.840 To actually pick them all

01:00:21.840 and say,

01:00:22.200 these are the people

01:00:22.740 I'm going to do.

01:00:24.100 It's easy to say that,

01:00:25.400 it's another thing

01:00:25.860 to go to Persia

01:00:27.280 and make that a reality.

01:00:31.520 I mean,

01:00:31.960 just to be perfectly clear,

01:00:33.080 I say good luck to him,

01:00:34.240 that sounds like

01:00:34.700 one of the best plans

01:00:35.420 I've heard.

01:00:36.940 Good,

01:00:37.440 my personal opinion,

01:00:39.340 go for it,

01:00:40.080 I mean,

01:00:41.440 fingers crossed for you.

01:00:43.620 Whether it works,

01:00:44.540 and the Americans

01:00:45.080 don't seem

01:00:46.040 all that

01:00:48.740 enamoured with the idea.

01:00:53.200 Plenty of people

01:00:54.020 in Persia,

01:00:54.560 it seems,

01:00:55.940 not necessarily dying

01:00:59.320 for him to come back.

01:01:02.380 But then,

01:01:03.140 having said that,

01:01:04.680 lots are.

01:01:06.560 Lots are,

01:01:07.360 though,

01:01:07.680 as well.

01:01:09.500 It's definitely seen

01:01:10.120 loads of protests

01:01:10.860 in the diaspora

01:01:12.920 and in Iran

01:01:13.960 saying he's the guy,

01:01:14.920 chanting his name,

01:01:16.040 I know all about it,

01:01:17.660 I know all about it,

01:01:18.920 but,

01:01:20.180 I can only talk about

01:01:20.720 so many things

01:01:21.440 given 50 minutes,

01:01:22.600 sorry.

01:01:23.680 I'll talk about it

01:01:24.560 in,

01:01:26.880 I find it hard to believe

01:01:28.220 you haven't heard already,

01:01:29.100 yeah.

01:01:30.080 Right.

01:01:32.420 Alright.

01:01:34.820 Inchkit89 says,

01:01:35.860 do you think

01:01:36.300 the Cyprus RAF

01:01:37.520 base strike

01:01:38.560 could have been

01:01:39.340 a bit of a false flag

01:01:40.260 to give Britain

01:01:40.820 an excuse

01:01:41.420 to get involved

01:01:42.500 quote,

01:01:42.880 legally?

01:01:43.620 Absolutely possible.

01:01:45.140 I don't know

01:01:45.680 one way or another,

01:01:46.380 but that's absolutely

01:01:47.100 possible.

01:01:49.360 That's all I can say

01:01:49.880 on that.

01:01:52.060 I suspect not,

01:01:53.100 but wouldn't be surprised.

01:01:58.700 Yeah.

01:01:59.880 Okay.

01:02:00.940 Fair point,

01:02:01.460 good point.

01:02:03.020 Oh,

01:02:03.360 one more rumble rant

01:02:04.020 just came in

01:02:04.540 from that busted

01:02:06.000 Brian again

01:02:06.720 who says,

01:02:08.380 Iraq failed 1.00

01:02:09.080 because they are

01:02:10.060 ethnically and culturally

01:02:11.060 Arab Muslim.

01:02:12.880 Iran is not 1.00

01:02:13.900 ethnically Arab 0.93

01:02:14.800 and the Muslim culture

01:02:16.160 was forced on them.

01:02:17.400 I mean,

01:02:18.020 yes,

01:02:18.820 no to some degree.

01:02:20.100 I mean,

01:02:20.720 so,

01:02:21.080 first of all,

01:02:22.640 Iraq and Iran

01:02:23.280 are very different

01:02:24.040 prospects,

01:02:24.540 very different things.

01:02:25.820 And yeah,

01:02:26.220 I know all about

01:02:27.280 the various ethnic

01:02:29.220 makeup of people

01:02:30.040 in Iran.

01:02:31.040 It's all different.

01:02:32.040 There are lots of

01:02:32.580 Arabs in Iran.

01:02:34.020 Lots of them are

01:02:34.580 Persian,

01:02:34.960 of course.

01:02:35.740 Then you've got

01:02:36.100 like Turkmen's 1.00

01:02:36.920 up in the north.

01:02:37.620 You've got all sorts.

01:02:38.320 It's a bit of a melting

01:02:39.020 pot of different

01:02:39.440 peoples.

01:02:39.820 The idea that

01:02:42.900 Islam was forced 1.00

01:02:43.840 on them,

01:02:44.320 well,

01:02:45.220 Arab armies,

01:02:46.320 Muslim armies 0.84

01:02:46.840 did pass through

01:02:47.760 there in,

01:02:49.760 what,

01:02:50.060 like the 8th century.

01:02:53.260 So I suppose

01:02:53.980 you do mean

01:02:54.500 that the

01:02:55.120 Islamic theocracy 1.00

01:02:56.280 of the Mullas

01:02:57.260 and the Ayatollahs

01:02:58.840 were forced on them

01:03:00.040 in 1979.

01:03:01.700 So,

01:03:01.980 yeah,

01:03:02.120 that's true.

01:03:03.340 But the idea

01:03:04.160 that Islam 0.98

01:03:05.500 is like new

01:03:06.660 to Persia,

01:03:08.760 no,

01:03:09.020 Muslim armies 0.84

01:03:11.280 went through

01:03:11.920 there well over

01:03:12.380 a thousand years

01:03:12.880 ago.

01:03:15.240 Still,

01:03:15.760 I guess the point

01:03:16.260 you're making

01:03:16.580 is to give you

01:03:17.080 benefit of the doubt.

01:03:18.760 It's still

01:03:19.140 fair enough.

01:03:20.720 It was forced

01:03:21.680 on them in 1979,

01:03:23.120 a theocracy.

01:03:24.280 Yeah,

01:03:24.440 that's true.

01:03:28.340 In coming days,

01:03:29.240 I think I should

01:03:29.720 have to talk about

01:03:30.460 a bit,

01:03:31.060 from time to time,

01:03:32.740 about the

01:03:33.520 religious and

01:03:34.340 ethnic makeup

01:03:35.080 of Persia

01:03:36.400 in a bit more

01:03:36.940 detail.

01:03:39.020 because it is

01:03:40.700 a complicated

01:03:41.120 picture.

01:03:42.960 Even more

01:03:43.640 complicated than

01:03:44.560 Iraq,

01:03:45.700 I'd say.

01:03:49.020 Potential for

01:03:49.660 disaster.

01:03:52.640 Sectarian

01:03:53.040 disaster.

01:03:54.320 Okay,

01:03:54.800 let's have a look

01:03:55.540 at the

01:03:56.280 super chats.

01:03:57.580 Oh,

01:03:57.720 there's quite a few.

01:03:58.980 There's loads,

01:03:59.480 actually.

01:03:59.920 So,

01:04:00.700 I'll whip through them.

01:04:01.400 Sorry if I don't give

01:04:02.220 like a comment and a reaction

01:04:03.360 to every single one.

01:04:04.160 All right,

01:04:05.480 Global Church History

01:04:06.140 says today,

01:04:06.840 I guess in this year,

01:04:07.680 537 AD it would be

01:04:09.500 Belisarius,

01:04:10.920 sieges,

01:04:11.700 Ostrogothic Rome.

01:04:13.220 Yeah,

01:04:13.640 on Epochs,

01:04:15.700 I've got a three-part

01:04:17.400 series just about

01:04:18.440 Belisarius.

01:04:20.160 I wonder if you've

01:04:20.660 seen that Global

01:04:21.140 Church History,

01:04:21.660 talking all about

01:04:22.260 Belisarius,

01:04:23.660 and his Justinian I's

01:04:25.400 general extraordinaire,

01:04:27.520 and the reconquest of

01:04:28.580 the Western Roman Empire.

01:04:29.980 Brilliant story.

01:04:31.280 Fantastic story,

01:04:32.100 the story of

01:04:32.480 Belisarius.

01:04:33.480 Done it in a fair

01:04:34.280 amount of detail.

01:04:36.520 Okay,

01:04:37.640 Global Church History

01:04:38.360 said,

01:04:39.060 Sorry,

01:04:39.700 Belisarius was besieged

01:04:41.220 by Vitigis.

01:04:45.140 Oh,

01:04:45.340 well,

01:04:45.480 it's all in and

01:04:46.020 around there.

01:04:46.400 I mean,

01:04:46.660 the campaigns,

01:04:47.780 the Western reconquest

01:04:48.820 of Rome by Belisarius

01:04:50.120 didn't last all that long,

01:04:51.280 did it?

01:04:51.900 Very complicated story.

01:04:54.320 Okay,

01:04:54.980 Principal Dunn

01:04:55.480 Certainty says,

01:04:56.160 This was Keir's

01:04:57.160 first good decision,

01:04:58.400 no more being a

01:04:59.080 foreign country's

01:04:59.820 unpaid mercenaries.

01:05:01.260 Fair enough,

01:05:01.800 yeah,

01:05:01.940 I mean,

01:05:02.560 maybe,

01:05:03.040 quite,

01:05:03.320 yeah.

01:05:04.780 Luke Stewart says,

01:05:05.800 G'day Bo,

01:05:06.460 it's been interesting

01:05:07.160 listening to a couple

01:05:08.060 of people talk about,

01:05:10.380 listening to a couple

01:05:11.120 of people talk about,

01:05:12.120 this is also a good way

01:05:13.180 to deal with China,

01:05:14.500 taking Venezuela and Iran 0.95

01:05:15.640 off the table for them.

01:05:17.080 Yeah,

01:05:17.340 I mean,

01:05:17.920 a sort of joke,

01:05:18.920 although it's not really

01:05:19.480 a joke earlier,

01:05:20.300 that Straits of Hormuz 0.52

01:05:21.500 closed,

01:05:22.460 China most affected.

01:05:23.680 It's true,

01:05:24.280 it's all true.

01:05:24.640 Again,

01:05:26.600 I don't think they'll be

01:05:27.480 starved of oil

01:05:29.740 because of it.

01:05:31.380 They'll find another way

01:05:32.360 round,

01:05:32.800 but yeah,

01:05:34.060 it would be frustrating,

01:05:35.960 annoying for China 0.99

01:05:38.000 that this has happened.

01:05:40.360 Yeah,

01:05:40.520 quite right.

01:05:40.840 DR Tisking says,

01:05:48.460 long time listener,

01:05:49.520 first time caller,

01:05:50.460 all right,

01:05:50.680 hi,

01:05:51.720 my dad was friends

01:05:53.140 with Iranians

01:05:53.880 before the revolution

01:05:54.740 when he was in college.

01:05:58.600 No money to guess

01:05:59.700 their fates.

01:06:01.360 So I hope the regime

01:06:02.480 change for them

01:06:03.240 is nothing else,

01:06:04.980 if nothing else.

01:06:06.060 So I hope for regime 1.00

01:06:07.240 change for them

01:06:08.040 if nothing else.

01:06:08.660 Yeah,

01:06:08.960 fair enough.

01:06:09.680 Yeah.

01:06:10.840 Someone in my family,

01:06:16.460 very close to me

01:06:17.160 and my family,

01:06:18.380 travelled across the world

01:06:19.940 overland

01:06:20.740 from England

01:06:22.740 down to South East Asia 0.50

01:06:23.940 to Australia

01:06:25.060 in the 1960s.

01:06:26.340 They travelled across

01:06:27.360 Iran and Afghanistan,

01:06:29.360 India, Pakistan,

01:06:30.040 the whole thing,

01:06:30.700 in the 1960s.

01:06:32.300 And they say

01:06:33.140 how it was,

01:06:34.960 it was great

01:06:35.720 and there was no problems.

01:06:37.600 They could move through

01:06:38.740 places like Iran

01:06:40.080 and Afghanistan

01:06:40.740 as a Westerner

01:06:41.980 in the 1960s

01:06:44.180 is pretty much fine.

01:06:46.140 They were fine.

01:06:49.800 You wouldn't say that today,

01:06:50.880 could you?

01:06:51.940 I wouldn't fancy

01:06:52.740 travelling across country

01:06:53.740 even before this

01:06:54.440 recent conflagration.

01:06:57.260 I wouldn't fancy

01:06:57.900 just travelling across Iran

01:06:59.260 or Afghanistan.

01:07:00.220 be worrying,

01:07:03.340 wouldn't it?

01:07:03.600 Okay.

01:07:05.120 Luke Stewart says,

01:07:05.820 I also find it funny

01:07:06.900 that the attack happened

01:07:08.020 on the 11th day

01:07:09.320 of the 9th month

01:07:10.580 of the Islamic calendar.

01:07:12.420 And that is basically

01:07:13.160 just to whack a leader.

01:07:14.640 and this is basically

01:07:17.780 just whack a leader

01:07:19.440 until 0.86

01:07:20.080 until get one

01:07:22.220 they want to negotiate.

01:07:24.420 Okay, yeah.

01:07:26.040 Yeah.

01:07:27.300 Just keep taking them out

01:07:28.560 until they put a leader

01:07:29.880 in charge

01:07:30.360 who's prepared to sit

01:07:31.220 at the negotiating table

01:07:32.560 and give you everything

01:07:33.160 you want.

01:07:34.100 It's a classic strategy.

01:07:36.220 There's all just,

01:07:37.580 that sort of thing

01:07:38.340 goes back to the ancient world.

01:07:40.040 Yeah, we'll just 1.00

01:07:40.480 just keep killing your leaders 1.00

01:07:42.840 until we get the one 1.00

01:07:44.240 we want.

01:07:45.580 Yeah, classic.

01:07:48.540 Luke Stewart again says,

01:07:49.980 also he offered

01:07:50.860 immunity to soldiers

01:07:51.980 to basically rebel

01:07:53.120 which has been interesting

01:07:55.100 as previous times

01:07:56.020 they've done

01:07:56.600 this.

01:07:58.220 They're made

01:07:58.740 they're made it

01:08:00.720 if you were part

01:08:01.340 of the old government 0.84

01:08:02.080 you were pure evil 0.91

01:08:03.000 and no hope.

01:08:04.180 Yeah, that was one

01:08:04.700 of the things Trump said.

01:08:05.540 Yeah, he said to

01:08:06.040 the Revolutionary Guard

01:08:08.380 and things,

01:08:08.660 lay down your weapons

01:08:09.500 and if you do

01:08:10.800 we'll give you immunity.

01:08:12.960 Now he can't really

01:08:13.720 guarantee them

01:08:14.320 immunity from the mob

01:08:15.320 can he?

01:08:16.240 In real time but

01:08:17.040 yeah, interesting.

01:08:19.420 Just trying to do

01:08:20.240 everything they can

01:08:21.100 to get the regime

01:08:22.380 to collapse isn't it?

01:08:24.120 But interesting nonetheless.

01:08:25.160 It was a very interesting

01:08:25.860 thing to say.

01:08:29.820 Adrian LeCay

01:08:30.740 didn't say anything

01:08:31.540 but just gives us

01:08:32.100 a bit of money.

01:08:32.620 Thank you very much.

01:08:33.340 Thank you very much sir.

01:08:34.800 Luke Stewart again says,

01:08:35.860 I heard it interesting

01:08:37.600 I heard it interesting

01:08:39.880 I heard an interesting

01:08:43.280 take that

01:08:43.880 the US

01:08:44.440 is waiting for

01:08:45.540 the Israeli people

01:08:46.300 to pick someone

01:08:47.160 so it doesn't look like

01:08:48.660 they pick it for them.

01:08:50.300 Interesting if true.

01:08:52.320 I think the people

01:08:53.280 of Persia

01:08:53.780 are less likely

01:08:54.360 to accept

01:08:54.980 an Israeli pick 0.74

01:08:57.580 in and of itself

01:08:59.300 but

01:08:59.580 interesting if that's true.

01:09:01.380 Oh God

01:09:03.260 someone's got a very

01:09:04.000 very long name

01:09:04.700 here.

01:09:09.560 Katerine

01:09:10.200 Yamiya

01:09:11.100 Yazandrogaf

01:09:12.640 says

01:09:14.660 spontaneous

01:09:16.980 like a quote

01:09:17.700 spontaneous demonstrations

01:09:18.960 taking place

01:09:19.680 in New York

01:09:20.240 and Tehran

01:09:21.060 quote

01:09:22.060 says George Orwell

01:09:23.360 yeah

01:09:23.880 good point

01:09:27.160 some might say

01:09:27.900 that's cynical

01:09:28.440 I wouldn't

01:09:29.220 yeah

01:09:29.840 yeah

01:09:31.500 we're suddenly

01:09:34.820 at war

01:09:35.400 with Eurasia

01:09:36.160 and always have been

01:09:37.100 yeah

01:09:40.320 yeah

01:09:40.800 good point

01:09:41.960 interesting

01:09:42.340 funny

01:09:42.640 not funny

01:09:43.820 scary

01:09:45.280 okay

01:09:46.240 Luke Stewart

01:09:47.460 again says

01:09:48.000 oh no oil

01:09:50.240 is

01:09:50.820 going to go up

01:09:52.120 good thing

01:09:52.800 we've got

01:09:53.140 Venezuela

01:09:53.560 supposedly going

01:09:54.520 to cash

01:09:55.140 to crash

01:09:56.640 the oil

01:09:57.160 price

01:09:57.540 yeah

01:09:58.520 I talked

01:09:58.780 earlier

01:09:59.060 I did

01:09:59.320 all about

01:09:59.740 oil

01:10:00.140 prices

01:10:00.560 the various

01:10:02.340 fallout

01:10:02.600 we'll see

01:10:02.860 what happens

01:10:03.220 today

01:10:03.540 when the

01:10:04.000 markets open

01:10:05.040 commodities markets

01:10:06.560 well they'll be

01:10:07.140 open now

01:10:07.540 won't they

01:10:07.880 in Europe

01:10:09.100 anyway

01:10:09.420 not the US 0.83

01:10:10.240 yet

01:10:10.520 we'll see

01:10:11.840 how trading

01:10:12.600 goes

01:10:13.140 in terms of

01:10:14.340 crude

01:10:14.660 today

01:10:15.560 whether I'll

01:10:17.340 on the

01:10:18.140 Bo Show

01:10:18.460 tomorrow morning

01:10:19.140 saying oh

01:10:19.900 the price of

01:10:20.680 crude is like

01:10:21.200 $150 a barrel

01:10:22.420 it's like the

01:10:22.980 all time higher

01:10:23.660 or whatever

01:10:24.840 we'll see

01:10:26.560 we'll see

01:10:27.240 again I looked

01:10:29.080 at the price

01:10:29.440 this morning

01:10:29.800 I think it was

01:10:30.420 like $78 a barrel

01:10:31.580 $80 odd

01:10:32.160 a barrel

01:10:32.680 so it hasn't

01:10:35.220 spiked insanely

01:10:36.200 yet

01:10:37.980 we'll see

01:10:38.680 what happens

01:10:39.000 today

01:10:39.340 see what

01:10:40.160 happens

01:10:40.340 today

01:10:40.600 okay

01:10:41.760 Bo you are

01:10:43.940 a handsome

01:10:44.340 man

01:10:44.720 very dashing

01:10:45.480 Harry

01:10:50.020 no thanks

01:10:57.760 thanks for

01:10:57.940 saying that

01:10:58.440 Midas Touch

01:10:59.580 2022

01:11:00.120 cheers

01:11:00.640 appreciate

01:11:02.120 that

01:11:02.620 Richard

01:11:05.980 Inman said

01:11:06.520 I look like 0.99

01:11:06.880 a rat 0.99

01:11:07.360 well that's

01:11:12.220 very kind of

01:11:12.600 you to say

01:11:12.960 paid two

01:11:13.880 dollars to say

01:11:14.620 that

01:11:14.860 okay

01:11:16.180 the educated

01:11:17.380 yobo

01:11:18.080 says

01:11:18.660 seeing

01:11:19.240 Habib and

01:11:19.900 Faraj

01:11:20.360 gagging

01:11:20.920 to be a

01:11:22.340 gimp for

01:11:22.740 the US

01:11:23.240 tells you

01:11:23.920 about their

01:11:24.340 focus

01:11:24.840 they are

01:11:27.140 never going

01:11:27.540 to pick

01:11:27.880 up a

01:11:28.180 rifle

01:11:28.580 nor will

01:11:30.460 their kids

01:11:31.000 but for

01:11:31.840 thinking about

01:11:32.300 consequences

01:11:32.980 they're the

01:11:33.900 traitors

01:11:34.320 I mean

01:11:34.720 yeah

01:11:35.340 yeah

01:11:36.060 reform

01:11:37.500 Tyson

01:11:38.420 Faraj

01:11:38.780 came out

01:11:39.140 very quickly

01:11:39.600 just full

01:11:40.200 bore

01:11:40.440 100%

01:11:41.260 support

01:11:41.640 for

01:11:42.040 Israel

01:11:42.740 and

01:11:43.160 the US

01:11:44.420 I mean

01:11:46.340 yeah

01:11:47.520 there you

01:11:48.040 go

01:11:48.340 yeah

01:11:48.960 them or

01:11:49.620 their kids

01:11:49.960 will never

01:11:50.320 have to

01:11:50.940 fight

01:11:51.160 but so

01:11:51.720 it's easy

01:11:52.500 isn't it

01:11:52.860 to be

01:11:54.440 a coach

01:11:55.660 from the

01:11:55.960 sidelines

01:11:56.440 yeah

01:11:59.860 do you say

01:12:01.040 Habib as

01:12:01.560 well

01:12:01.780 okay

01:12:02.940 I didn't

01:12:03.520 know that

01:12:03.880 I'm not

01:12:05.000 really paying

01:12:05.340 attention to

01:12:05.920 Ben Habib

01:12:06.380 anymore

01:12:06.740 well he's

01:12:09.480 worth 150

01:12:10.240 votes at an

01:12:10.860 election

01:12:11.180 yeah

01:12:12.380 actually

01:12:15.380 of no

01:12:15.680 real

01:12:15.840 consequences

01:12:16.360 isn't he

01:12:16.700 now

01:12:17.360 he's been

01:12:19.900 weighed and

01:12:20.300 measured

01:12:20.680 and been

01:12:22.160 found wanting

01:12:22.820 okay

01:12:23.840 principle

01:12:24.340 done

01:12:24.580 certainly

01:12:24.860 says

01:12:25.160 neither

01:12:25.680 America

01:12:26.240 or its

01:12:27.880 master

01:12:28.340 can put

01:12:29.100 boots on

01:12:29.480 the ground

01:12:29.860 they will

01:12:30.360 simply write

01:12:30.880 it out

01:12:31.280 what the

01:12:32.120 Iranian regime

01:12:32.660 will simply

01:12:33.020 write it

01:12:33.300 out

01:12:33.500 best outcome

01:12:35.280 is that

01:12:35.760 they get

01:12:36.220 rainbow

01:12:36.700 feminism

01:12:37.260 yay

01:12:37.660 interesting

01:12:39.580 yeah I

01:12:40.300 mean

01:12:40.480 you may

01:12:41.260 well

01:12:41.560 that may

01:12:42.120 well be

01:12:42.440 completely

01:12:42.780 accurate

01:12:43.060 what you've

01:12:43.360 said there

01:12:43.720 okay

01:12:48.220 there's still

01:12:49.020 quite a few

01:12:49.320 to go through

01:12:49.640 so

01:12:49.900 LJNV

01:12:51.500 says

01:12:52.080 Bo

01:12:53.080 why is

01:12:53.520 Tommy

01:12:53.720 Robinson

01:12:54.080 trying to

01:12:55.040 derail

01:12:55.740 restore

01:12:56.260 with his

01:12:56.760 comment on

01:12:57.560 Lowe's

01:12:58.120 X post

01:12:58.740 by saying

01:12:59.440 that there

01:12:59.780 is no such

01:13:00.300 thing as

01:13:01.080 an English

01:13:01.500 man

01:13:01.700 yeah I

01:13:02.020 don't know

01:13:02.400 I don't

01:13:02.860 know

01:13:03.100 well Tommy

01:13:03.660 Robinson

01:13:03.900 is a

01:13:04.180 sift

01:13:04.340 now isn't

01:13:04.680 he

01:13:05.580 so

01:13:06.520 what we've

01:13:08.500 been on

01:13:08.800 record a

01:13:09.260 number of

01:13:09.520 times saying

01:13:10.020 anyone can

01:13:11.220 come and

01:13:11.520 be English

01:13:12.040 if you've

01:13:12.780 got the

01:13:12.960 right bit

01:13:13.460 of paper

01:13:13.900 like a

01:13:15.800 Sikh person

01:13:16.320 can come

01:13:16.680 from India

01:13:17.260 and just

01:13:18.060 be English

01:13:18.720 now

01:13:19.020 so

01:13:21.420 you ask

01:13:24.900 me why

01:13:25.300 is Tommy

01:13:25.680 doing that

01:13:26.080 well because

01:13:26.440 that's his

01:13:26.820 world view

01:13:27.180 that's his

01:13:27.620 world view

01:13:28.340 so

01:13:28.600 so he's

01:13:30.140 going to

01:13:30.320 try and

01:13:30.600 muddy the

01:13:30.940 waters

01:13:31.300 of any

01:13:32.140 sort of

01:13:33.740 English

01:13:35.720 people wanting

01:13:36.340 their country

01:13:36.840 back

01:13:37.120 insisting that

01:13:37.980 there is an

01:13:38.520 ethnic element

01:13:39.120 to be in

01:13:39.540 English

01:13:39.900 there just

01:13:40.700 is

01:13:41.040 call that

01:13:42.020 what you

01:13:42.240 want

01:13:42.520 right

01:13:45.640 Nana Akuna

01:13:46.420 is not

01:13:46.880 English

01:13:47.420 she can have

01:13:51.160 a bit of

01:13:51.440 paper saying

01:13:52.180 she's British

01:13:52.680 she can live

01:13:54.440 here but

01:13:55.780 she's not

01:13:56.280 ethnically

01:13:57.540 English

01:13:58.460 there is an

01:13:59.040 ethnic element

01:13:59.420 this is at

01:14:00.180 the heart of

01:14:01.320 it all isn't

01:14:01.780 it

01:14:02.180 even Ben

01:14:02.840 Habib or 0.78

01:14:03.400 Tommy

01:14:03.580 Robinson

01:14:03.940 can't accept

01:14:05.640 refuse to

01:14:06.180 accept

01:14:06.580 you don't

01:14:11.020 see them

01:14:11.360 often making

01:14:11.860 the argument

01:14:12.140 the other

01:14:12.380 way round

01:14:12.840 like

01:14:13.920 I can go

01:14:15.440 to Japan

01:14:15.880 and be

01:14:16.380 Japanese

01:14:16.820 I'm a

01:14:17.340 Japanese

01:14:17.700 person now

01:14:18.580 I can

01:14:21.200 go to

01:14:21.500 Eritrea

01:14:22.060 or Nigeria

01:14:23.100 and I'm

01:14:24.880 a Nigerian

01:14:25.740 now

01:14:26.040 I'm Nigerian

01:14:27.000 no

01:14:27.940 there is an

01:14:29.600 ethnic element

01:14:30.240 to being

01:14:30.760 Nigerian

01:14:31.420 or being

01:14:31.940 Japanese

01:14:32.460 or being

01:14:33.560 English

01:14:34.120 sorry

01:14:35.300 there just

01:14:35.740 is

01:14:36.060 that's

01:14:36.500 reality

01:14:37.160 same

01:14:41.860 person

01:14:42.340 LJ

01:14:43.100 NV

01:14:43.500 says

01:14:43.820 I think

01:14:44.540 it's

01:14:44.760 strange

01:14:45.040 that

01:14:45.260 Rupert

01:14:45.580 doesn't

01:14:45.880 back

01:14:46.080 Israel

01:14:46.440 and all

01:14:47.200 of a

01:14:47.440 sudden

01:14:47.780 he's

01:14:49.160 trying to

01:14:49.560 dictate

01:14:49.820 terms

01:14:50.280 on

01:14:50.440 policy

01:14:50.840 he's

01:14:51.500 becoming

01:14:51.860 a

01:14:52.160 thorn

01:14:52.380 in the

01:14:52.700 side

01:14:53.100 in the

01:14:56.320 side

01:14:56.500 of

01:14:56.660 who

01:14:57.000 I don't

01:14:57.320 know

01:14:57.520 I haven't

01:14:58.280 even

01:14:58.500 really been

01:14:59.260 looking at

01:14:59.600 what Rupert

01:15:00.140 has been

01:15:00.460 saying about

01:15:01.220 about all

01:15:02.380 of this

01:15:02.760 so I

01:15:03.980 really haven't

01:15:04.460 actually

01:15:04.840 don't even

01:15:06.040 know what

01:15:06.280 his position

01:15:06.680 is exactly

01:15:07.220 on it

01:15:07.540 I've just

01:15:08.540 been watching

01:15:09.060 all that's

01:15:11.200 been going

01:15:11.500 down in

01:15:12.060 the Gulf

01:15:12.560 region

01:15:13.180 so I guess

01:15:14.260 I have to

01:15:14.560 get back

01:15:14.820 I'll certainly

01:15:15.780 speak about

01:15:16.280 it in

01:15:16.460 coming days

01:15:17.000 okay

01:15:19.140 the same

01:15:19.640 person with

01:15:20.020 the very

01:15:20.260 very long

01:15:20.760 name

01:15:21.180 Katarin

01:15:22.740 Yamiah

01:15:23.700 Yaz

01:15:24.540 Endgraf

01:15:25.880 says

01:15:27.160 can we

01:15:30.760 just be

01:15:31.160 real that

01:15:31.740 this is

01:15:32.200 Israel's 0.75

01:15:32.780 revenge on

01:15:33.340 Persia

01:15:33.780 like Iraq 0.99

01:15:34.380 was their

01:15:34.760 revenge on

01:15:35.740 Babylonian

01:15:37.040 Rome

01:15:38.440 Europe

01:15:38.880 is next

01:15:39.560 okay

01:15:40.280 I don't

01:15:40.480 get everything

01:15:40.940 you're saying

01:15:41.400 there but

01:15:41.740 the general

01:15:42.300 point you've

01:15:43.240 said

01:15:43.440 yeah

01:15:43.860 I agree

01:15:44.560 with

01:15:44.760 it's

01:15:46.080 Israel's 0.75

01:15:46.600 revenge on

01:15:47.220 Persia

01:15:47.680 yeah I

01:15:50.160 mean

01:15:50.360 Bibi

01:15:51.820 Neti

01:15:53.220 has been

01:15:53.960 quite open

01:15:54.480 about it

01:15:54.880 over the

01:15:55.500 years

01:15:55.840 it's like

01:15:57.260 if they

01:15:57.540 want to

01:15:57.820 destroy us 0.99

01:15:58.480 we'll 1.00

01:15:59.260 destroy you 1.00

01:15:59.940 sort of

01:16:00.260 thing

01:16:00.440 yeah

01:16:03.540 or maybe

01:16:05.460 you're making

01:16:05.800 a point about

01:16:06.460 ancient times

01:16:07.240 like the

01:16:07.520 Babylonians

01:16:08.420 because modern

01:16:10.420 day Iraq

01:16:10.800 like the

01:16:11.080 Babylonian

01:16:11.640 empire

01:16:11.960 existed

01:16:12.360 in what

01:16:12.840 is the

01:16:13.340 modern

01:16:13.700 city

01:16:14.520 the modern

01:16:15.360 country of

01:16:15.880 Iraq

01:16:16.320 the

01:16:17.540 Babylonians

01:16:18.220 took over

01:16:18.800 the city

01:16:19.540 of the

01:16:20.680 kingdoms

01:16:21.460 of Israel

01:16:22.920 and Judea

01:16:23.460 didn't they

01:16:23.800 and put

01:16:24.720 all the

01:16:25.040 Jews

01:16:25.340 into 0.96

01:16:25.760 slavery

01:16:26.340 that was

01:16:28.140 the Assyrian

01:16:29.400 kings 0.96

01:16:29.780 anyway

01:16:30.020 it's

01:16:30.740 complicated

01:16:30.960 isn't it

01:16:31.700 got long

01:16:32.200 form content

01:16:32.600 all about

01:16:33.040 the Babylonian

01:16:33.680 and Assyrian

01:16:34.220 empires

01:16:34.800 on epochs

01:16:36.220 it's

01:16:37.360 complicated

01:16:37.680 isn't it

01:16:37.960 is it

01:16:38.160 revenge

01:16:38.580 for that

01:16:39.020 revenge

01:16:39.640 for things

01:16:40.720 that happened

01:16:41.280 like

01:16:42.760 5000

01:16:43.700 BC

01:16:44.040 or whatever

01:16:44.380 okay

01:16:47.640 what else

01:16:50.560 we got

01:16:50.920 here

01:16:51.340 oh okay

01:16:53.420 last two

01:16:54.100 someone else

01:16:57.680 with a really

01:16:58.200 long name

01:16:58.940 hi ho 0.94

01:17:01.660 Sheffield

01:17:02.040 Wednesday

01:17:02.380 okay sorry

01:17:03.100 easier than I

01:17:04.240 thought

01:17:04.340 hi ho 0.94

01:17:04.960 Sheffield

01:17:05.320 Wednesday

01:17:05.620 says

01:17:06.780 which monarch

01:17:07.720 in English

01:17:08.200 history

01:17:08.520 do you think

01:17:09.060 is the most

01:17:09.560 interesting

01:17:10.040 to read about

01:17:10.580 oh god

01:17:11.320 that's a good

01:17:11.720 question

01:17:12.120 most interesting

01:17:13.880 well

01:17:14.660 personally

01:17:15.700 I'm a fan

01:17:17.400 of Henry

01:17:18.260 the fifth

01:17:18.620 his campaigns

01:17:19.960 of 1415

01:17:20.840 and 1417

01:17:21.780 I can't

01:17:23.000 stop reading

01:17:23.900 about them

01:17:24.540 but there's

01:17:25.200 loads of

01:17:25.640 loads of

01:17:26.080 interesting

01:17:26.320 the campaigns

01:17:27.800 of Edward

01:17:28.220 the third

01:17:28.860 and the

01:17:29.680 Black Prince

01:17:30.380 Cressy

01:17:31.200 and Tour

01:17:32.240 and that's

01:17:33.000 fascinating

01:17:33.640 absolutely

01:17:34.900 fascinating

01:17:35.480 the life

01:17:36.020 of

01:17:36.280 the conqueror

01:17:37.520 himself

01:17:37.960 William the 1.00

01:17:39.460 bastard 0.94

01:17:39.820 William the 0.97

01:17:40.320 first

01:17:40.720 it's

01:17:43.560 fascinating

01:17:43.780 there's loads

01:17:44.560 the life of

01:17:46.160 Henry the

01:17:46.580 eighth

01:17:46.840 is fascinating

01:17:47.720 there's loads

01:17:51.140 it just depends

01:17:51.640 what you're into

01:17:52.100 my first pick

01:17:53.680 is always

01:17:54.100 Henry the

01:17:54.540 fifth though

01:17:54.980 what I

01:17:56.760 haven't got

01:17:57.040 a 12

01:17:57.320 13 part

01:17:57.980 series on

01:17:58.640 the epochs

01:17:59.100 all about

01:17:59.420 that

01:17:59.620 hours and

01:18:00.120 hours of

01:18:00.400 me talking

01:18:00.740 about it 0.85

01:18:01.060 in silly 0.91

01:18:01.500 detail

01:18:01.920 check it

01:18:04.440 out behind

01:18:04.740 the paywall

01:18:05.160 five pound

01:18:05.580 a month

01:18:05.940 bronze

01:18:06.440 team

01:18:06.620 membership

01:18:06.980 lotus

01:18:07.900 eaters

01:18:08.100 dot com

01:18:08.540 all right

01:18:11.820 and the

01:18:12.020 last one

01:18:12.400 the last

01:18:12.700 one

01:18:13.740 thundercork

01:18:15.780 2028

01:18:16.700 says

01:18:17.260 assad

01:18:18.040 maduro

01:18:18.680 ayatollah

01:18:19.400 out and

01:18:20.120 putin is

01:18:20.660 next

01:18:21.060 oh

01:18:21.880 i wonder

01:18:24.100 interesting

01:18:27.880 funny comment

01:18:28.260 i doubt

01:18:28.760 it

01:18:29.000 mainly because

01:18:29.980 of

01:18:30.320 the

01:18:32.940 russian

01:18:33.420 air force

01:18:34.980 and

01:18:35.500 nuclear

01:18:36.440 capability

01:18:37.260 but maybe

01:18:39.220 who knows

01:18:39.660 okay

01:18:40.200 that's the

01:18:40.760 show

01:18:40.920 it's now

01:18:41.200 ticked

01:18:41.560 18 minutes

01:18:42.060 past nine

01:18:42.480 in the

01:18:42.780 a.m.

01:18:43.120 greenwich

01:18:43.420 meantime

01:18:43.780 it is

01:18:44.540 monday the

01:18:45.040 2nd of

01:18:45.540 march

01:18:45.900 in the

01:18:46.160 year of

01:18:46.380 our

01:18:46.480 lord

01:18:46.600 2026

01:18:47.200 you have

01:18:47.840 been the

01:18:48.240 glorious

01:18:48.660 band

01:18:49.240 the

01:18:50.180 chosen

01:18:50.800 few

01:18:51.840 my band

01:18:54.260 of brothers

01:18:54.780 and sisters

01:18:55.680 thank you for

01:18:56.100 watching

01:18:56.360 without you

01:18:56.740 it isn't a

01:18:57.060 thing

01:18:57.180 try and make

01:18:57.700 the best of

01:18:58.060 their head

01:18:58.360 if you can

01:18:58.820 try and make

01:19:10.140 it count

01:19:10.440 you've only got

01:19:10.860 a finite number

01:19:11.380 of days on this

01:19:11.900 earth

01:19:12.120 try and make

01:19:13.700 it count

01:19:14.000 i hope you

01:19:14.440 do

01:19:14.680 until tomorrow

01:19:16.180 morning then

01:19:16.720 take care

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - March 02, 2026

Breakfast With Beau ｜ Monday 2nd March 2026

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