Elections Are Dangerous to Our Democracy
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Summary
The decline and fall of the Labour Party. Although this episode may reveal that it is slightly more than just the Labor Party, it is British politics as a whole in general that is in free fall. We look at local elections across the country and see how the center is collapsing.
Transcript
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hi folks welcome back to the decline and fall of the labor party although this episode may reveal
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that it's slightly more than just the labor party it is british politics as a whole well i was going
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to say because this is the fourth of these that we've done they can't still be declining can they
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i'm afraid they can i mean edward gibbon noted the decline and fall of the roman empire happened 400
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years so yes we could this might be quicker we could get a lot of mileage out of it yes and we
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likely will so let's begin with some local election by election local council by elections as usual
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as you can see here in suffolk things went pretty south for labor and the conservatives
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pretty quickly but also the lib dems interestingly enough no independent but 49.2 reform yeah from
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nowhere yeah and from a previously conservative uh holding but as you'll notice the conservatives
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were only on about 34 percent yes so reform have rocketed up to nearly 50 percent thing is in british
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politics don't normally get anything close to 50 percent that is that is extremely rare normally
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30 35 percent is considered a stonking result yes and so i mean absolutely correct and so to have what
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was doubtless a control conservative stronghold collapse so heavily and then you can see the
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labor party the minus 27.4 percent down to 12.5 percent even the lib dems losing nearly 10 percent
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i imagine a lot of labor and lib dem went to green but i think a lot of labor also went to reform
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yeah i mean that that is that is classic politics there so conservatives what they would have been
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33 almost 30 no 34 percent labor would have been very slightly behind them with um you know whatever
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they had didn't didn't they have more about 30 percent they had about 30 percent did they um it
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well i'm not sure why that's a late a conservative game when it looks like labor was on more so it
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might have been the way i guess a typo there or something yeah quite quite maybe it's 17 percent
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they're down but that that is typical politics it's it's 30 percent versus 25 percent yes seen that for
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decades yeah all across the country yeah i have not seen i mean apart from very exceptional cases
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um i mean there was this guy called martin bell who popped up once in the 1997 election and he
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he stood as an independent he got good press and he got like 50 percent but apart from that you just
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don't see it yeah the only the only thing similar is rupert lowe's great yarmouth first yes 44 percent
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uh polling in the constituency but as you can see um reform are just eating up the competition here so
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that's interesting but again it goes it plays into our thesis that it's the center that's collapsing
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yeah people are going to the extremes green party another second party in suffolk hakefield uh and
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then i can't remember whether we covered this but it's very similar numbers in a blackpool by
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election uh whereas you can see reform uh have just gained this from labor in the opposite way
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but like you say very similar numbers in the center right conservatives down by 17 put them on 22
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labor down by 22 to put them on 21 reform 44 but it also shows the breadth of the thesis because
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last time we were looking at a conservative stronghold yes and historically they have not behaved the
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same way that you know this presumably yeah this would be a red wall seat yes so what used to be the
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the sort of uh unstoppable bulk wall that the labor party had if they're cutting through equally on both
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sides that it's transcended something that didn't happen in politics before yes and as we've spoken of
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previously this is just the center bottoming out it's in free fall it's it's collapsing and people are
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just going elsewhere and it's happening all across country in the north and south all across the
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country people are like yeah you know what i'm done uh and so let's we'll skip ahead to the aggregate
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of the seats which i think shows us a lot the lib dem's been crowing that they've won the most council
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by elections in 2025 they have by two seats but they are an established party that is very good in local
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elections and also they probably fought all or most of them yes reform are kind of sleepwalking their
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way into success because the thing is the lib dem's are going to have a very well-oiled machine when it
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comes to local elections so so with political parties getting somebody for parliamentary seats is hard
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enough getting people to contest every local seat is nigh on impossible yes and and the lib dem's i mean
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part of the reason they do so well is because they turn up and they put candidates out yeah and they
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constantly leaflet in very targeted areas and they've they've got a very like i said well well-oiled
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machine that is on the ground constantly running these things now reform don't have any of that
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reform have a kind of uh i don't want to be uncharitable but a kind of systemic incompetence
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yeah but the the wind is in their sails yeah they're not they don't have the vast urban machinery
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that's marching around knocking on doors but what they have is a popular opinion that this country
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screwed and nigel farage is at least not one of the old consensus and so reform got 104 c's which is a
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massive increase the largest increase and as you can see by the decrease it's labor and the tories that
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are losing by a long way and this uh this we've mapped this out before but as you can see um
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again just complete sea change from conservatives and labor who if you look at the beginning started
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with the lion's share between them and now are 21 and 14 after these elections these are not the
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number of councillors that they have these are the number of seats that have changed over the uh the
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course of the year but that's still a bellwether to show you where people are going and a lot of
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them are going to reform and lib dems it's just nature of the beast and the old parties are in trouble
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so let's have a look at the national polling now there's a lot of swing in the national polling
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this came out on the 17th uh after the week of them berating nigel farage for being a racist
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and he went up plus three in the polls yeah uh i mean i i guess i guess he better hope that they
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keep calling him racist yeah well well he better actually because things aren't exactly smooth sailing
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for reform you wonder how much of a poll boost he would get if he just came out and just said yeah
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i'm racist probably like plus 10 or something i do wonder but he's not going to do it um so this
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as you can see is a good result for reform labor on 14 cent conservatives on 8 cent although it's
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worth pointing out and we'll get to this in a minute this is definitely going to be undercounting a lot
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of things i mean this is what it would look like if mapped i assume the white areas are uh these are
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parliamentary seats yeah uh there's no way there's no way it's going to look like this i mean that's too
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much that's way too much yeah i mean so on on the main image of the uk the bigger constituencies
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they're they're always far more likely to go for the right wing option i mean even in 1997 if you
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looked at the map the map was basically blue because they're the big bits that you can see
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and it's really you have to pull out those those other bits but yeah even those other bits look at
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look at like greater manchester and west but no way no way that does look like it's ridiculous beyond
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what you could hope for but maybe i mean i i'm not going to say i'm not going to say never i'm not
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going to say it couldn't happen time and we're entirely apart from maybe an independent but honestly
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that's possible merseyside south yorkshire going reform i can completely believe but i i don't just
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because i don't put much stock in this right i mean i don't know why the outer hebrides are going for
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garage i mean if this did happen where are they all going to sit i mean
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parliament there'll be lots of half of parliament is nowhere near big enough for this many mps
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yeah but there will be lots of empty seats and that's nice those will be spilling well yes
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uh but i i don't i don't buy that one um there are other polling uh establishments such as the
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varying group who have come out with reform on a respectable 27 but conservatives only on 21
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labor 18 lib dems 15 green 13 now this i feel is more accurate uh variant doesn't do that much
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polling but what they do is deep polling um they are as in they spend a lot i think the last poll they
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produced was in fact yeah it tells us at the bottom the last one they produced was in april for this
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right okay so they they they have um a much more thorough uh way of polling um and it was the
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most accurate of the 20 final polls published by the british polling council members uh in the 2024
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general election okay that is interesting yes so very in uh they've got um you know they they do uh
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i think it's in person and telephone rather than doing internet selected uh self-selected internet
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ones based on like the slate of the database that they have access to right like you gov
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so it it is um i mean this looks to me more like normal politics i've become accustomed to over the
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last 20 years yeah it's still really strong for reform though oh yeah yeah absolutely i mean it's
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it's terrible for conservatives and labor uh but this this i feel is a more accurate representation
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of what will actually come out um because i think in many of these polls conservative voters are
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actually being undercounted because of the way that the polls work because a lot of polls these
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days are online polls yep and a lot of conservative voters have yet to hear about the telephone so
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let alone by faxing them yeah exactly let alone the internet uh did you know the fax was invented in
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like the 19th century no there was a period of time when abraham lincoln could have sent a fax to a
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samurai i'm not did he no he didn't right but he could have that would have been a nice twist
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technologically and you know socially that would have actually been possible uh so fyi isn't that
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interesting yeah uh anyway so uh i think this is more likely i think the conservatives are going to
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poll higher and better than is otherwise expected in other polls uh just because there'll be lots of
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old people who view the conservatives as the party of pensions frankly yeah um uh here's another
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one from yougov which as you can see there's quite quite a substantive difference you know the
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concern well 21 to 19 it's not that substantive actually but you go of being self-selected online
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polling reform 25 minus three uh this uh labor on 20 percent except is 19 but otherwise a fairly
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reliable and predictable split for the rest of them yeah i don't i don't trust yougov never have
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no um but they're not terrible actually at predicting results uh the next one is lord ashcroft polls
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again reform on 25 percent conservatives on 22 percent uh greens on 19 labor 18 lib dems 10
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uh interestingly uh for the lord ashcroft polls they are conducted online but lord ashcroft is of course a
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conservative lord and so maybe he is pulling more heavily from conservative demographics
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but as with the variant polls i think that actually might be more accurate so i think the
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conservative the the older conservative voters are not being accurately represented here i mean the
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yougov guys were um tory councillors in wandsworth or richmond i think it was so that's their background
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but but i mean they just go along whatever is fashionable that week so if ukraine is in the
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headlines or vaccines are in the headlines that that is it's basically whatever the government
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narrative is they they back it that is correct um so the the lord ashcroft ones have uh various
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panels of polls which are conducted online again for all that's worth um but then i thought we'd look
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at the pollster ratings right because actually we can uh compare and variant have the best score
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based on their predictiveness um uh yougov are also pretty good all things considered is this based
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on the last election yes and and um um um yeah so recent uh their accuracy in predicting the most
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recent three general elections okay that's better yeah it's not just the last election uh based on
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national share of votes and fighter polling and things like that right and so variant uh like i said
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they do deep polling and it means they don't do them very much in the way of polling their polls can be
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quite spaced out but they do tend to have the best scores you go there not bad uh they're 81
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percent score uh and then but if you go down to find out now they're on 44 and lord ashcroft is the
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bottom at 30 oh really yeah okay so and more in common's only at 56 there that's a shame because i like
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the people's polling one because it just shows labor and tories getting utterly annihilated
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and it being this farcical situation where zach goldsmith is the leader of the opposition well
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this and i think that's funny well this is what i wanted to uh address really because uh i this is
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why i think that not only uh was it the variant one is probably most likely uh and actually in reality
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it feels like it's probably going to be most likely this uh a shame though isn't it i mean the
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tories still as the official opposition i mean i know it's embarrassing what the liddem's got i kind
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of hope that you know the the stake had been wedged into the heart at this point they'd burst into flames
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but they do just keep ticking over labor 18 is interesting and we'll come back to that number in a
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bit so in wales in particular labor follow the same pattern and what this is the thing i want to pay
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attention to really is you'll notice that labor 18 percent labor uh 20 percent was great but you
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know labor 18 all these sorts of things where uh massive massive drops i mean as you can see here
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from april in 2025 labor have lost 17 percent of their vote share right basically half yeah it's
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literally halved uh and a similar sort of thing has happened in wales uh wales uh labor are just
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actually getting slashed and this is for the general election 2029 based on yougov uh reform
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hammering it good for them to be honest uh the reform were above the bloody welsh nationalist party
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uh my twice of labors more than twice of the conservatives but the conservatives have never
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been particularly strong yeah more than you know so reform and all while offering the most
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milquetoast nationalism possible i mean what what would happen i mean obviously plad cum
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right are not nationalist in the slightest they they just put it in the name because they couldn't
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think of a better name and they can't field enough candidates to get outside of wales but what what if
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somebody came along and just offered an actual nationalist option well um i can't only i can only
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imagine frankly because i don't think such a thing is actually going to happen uh but yeah as you can
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see uh wales has decided you know what we're sick of this because i mean things are things are not good
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in wales obviously same as everywhere else but worse frankly uh you know they got that ridiculous
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what is it what are they down to is it like 10 miles an hour speed limit across the whole of wales
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i think it's 20 i yeah i know it's 20 but i i heard that they decided reduced again i i heard no way
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they definitely wanted to reduce it even lower lower than 20 miles an hour yeah i just just sod it just
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make it reverse yeah that god that would be embarrassing wouldn't it yeah uh anyway so uh that's the
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welsh you go uh poll and then you've got the uh the way that pans out to the seats which again is
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remarkable like this was all labor played cymru in the western sort of southwest northwest of wales
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the more welsh parts of wales the less anglicized parts uh but then the rest of it is basically just
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reform i mean those those little ones that that that should be industrial sort of welsh heartland
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coal mining yeah classic that should be classic labor yeah they're like they all know no we we're
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and they were they were classic labor in fact um let's let's have a quick look at the you know this
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the 2021 sneth seneth election i can't pronounce it but uh as you can see you know it's labor
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storming with 30 seats you know and the closest conservatives on 16 uh it was this one plague
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cymru on 13 lib dems on one you know so only one uh one area of wales actually has big gardens
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uh yeah so that that map that's what i'm talking about yeah that bottom bit should be glowing bright
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red yes and it always has been yes you know uh and so for it to just flip so comprehensively yeah
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i mean that's that's terrible it's almost like our thesis is correct
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what the labor party don't represent no the the the center is just imploding
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classic politics is the swingometer and it should be these people are moving this way and these people
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are moving that way but all the categories and all the boundaries are just imploding it's it's no it's
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just it's more like an immune response at this point people are coughing up something that they
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shouldn't have eaten and that and that's something you're exactly right normally you've the categories
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are essentially fixed and immutable oh you know we're going from you know the labor to the tories
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the labor to the tories maybe a bit to the lib dams the labor to the tories and now it's just like no
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all of this doesn't matter so if if in the 90s or 2000s or even 2000s then you you had watched the
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election night stream for any of the you know the sky or bbc or itv or whatever it was it would be
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here's our profiles this is the family this is the you know guy earning this much living in london this
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is this is and and then they do these little swingometers back on forth on each of them
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and but but it's none of that this time they're all just coughing up something vile and what i love
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about this as well is if you go back and watch old uh election uh street night they're great
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they're great it's not it's not they're great the presenters are all confident right there's a kind
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of smugness in the process isn't they deal with politics all day every day they've been following
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the polls the polls are generally fairly accurate and so they you know they can't it's like they
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kind of know in advance oh yeah this is going to be like when um what's his name after blair one
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and cameron not cameron uh the the conservatives uh was it heseltine or who's that it'll be i can't
00:19:05.720
remember but there was this one particular like channel four in view with no the the guy he's a
00:19:11.640
decent enough guy as well you'll need to give me a clue of some 2007 i think it was who is the
00:19:17.000
conservative leader um oh howard george duncan smith um might have been smith but there was there
00:19:24.140
was this one particular interview with a conservative chap i can't remember his bloody name now and it's
00:19:28.760
right on the top of my tongue uh to my tongue um but you you could see that there's this kind of
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like yeah we got crushed by labor again and uh you know the conservatives are like licking their wounds
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and the journalists are all kind of like smug about it um but that that is going now right
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because you're about 97 michael patillo are you oh yeah yeah it was patillo okay that was 97 yeah
00:19:48.520
he lost his seat 97 yeah and the you know he he was doing interviews and things like that and they
00:19:52.960
were all kind of smug about it yes and i felt really bad for him actually because he seemed like a decent
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chap um but they had this kind of security they said no we're in predictable politics you know
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we've just come off of however many decades of conservative rule yes you've got a labor landslide you got
00:20:06.840
smashed you know you're going to go lick your wounds and figure out what you did wrong and we are
00:20:11.440
basically the ringmasters of the spectacle uh but now well and also even back then the conservatives
00:20:19.280
weren't that worried no because it was like okay tony blair's won a big victory and he's probably going
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to win another one after this as well and very possibly a third one but then the pendulum will come
00:20:30.520
back and it'll be normal service nobody is going away here we know how this game is played we've
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played it for a hundred years right yes uh we know how this works and so the the the sort of
00:20:42.380
the the parties involved in the conflict okay yeah we took a few knocks but that's fine we'll come back
00:20:47.480
and i'll tell you there's a point about the media class as well whenever you watch those things
00:20:50.880
you get these panels where they'd all sit down and you get these wise heads oh this is this is the guy
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that was leader of the lib dems 10 years ago paddy ash down and he's coming and this guy used to do
00:21:01.900
this and he's going to come and this guy's an ex-journalist and he you know and they all sit
00:21:05.740
down and they just smugly tell you what's going to happen over the next eight hours i'm glad you
00:21:10.520
brought that up yes we put a pin in this because we are going to come back okay to the ex-party
00:21:15.620
leaders giving their yes august opinions on what's going to happen in the future of politics right
00:21:21.200
because the as i said the the ringmasters are realizing that the lions are all loose from the
00:21:27.020
cages right the categories no longer exist the cages aren't even there like what's going on
00:21:31.280
they don't know they don't know what's going to happen in this new era of politics because as you
00:21:36.060
say something is being coughed up here something is dramatically changing we can just uh like i said
00:21:41.500
look at um other ones here's for the uh local elections in wales uh the labor party won 468 seats
00:21:48.680
with 30 of the votes by far the largest uh share with 300 independents 200 plague cymru blah blah blah
00:21:56.640
you know 184 conservatives and it looks like uh um reform are just gonna just completely consume
00:22:04.280
all of this none of this is going to matter so again going going back to the prediction okay where
00:22:10.200
are you now how do you explain this and i'm sorry i just spotted not a single labor seat in wales
00:22:19.880
no no no yeah yeah sorry i was that not clear from this no it wasn't clear from this yeah there won't
00:22:25.740
be a single labor seat in wales they'll they'll go to the i know it's right in front of me but but
00:22:30.860
when he's like bloody hell i mean they're not even listed at the top the conservatives get one seat in
00:22:36.540
wales the lib dems get one seat plug come right are getting you know the the sheepy bits by the coast
00:22:43.660
yeah it's just it's just reform winning everything yeah play come where we'll get like eight or nine
00:22:48.080
seats something like that uh but it's just reform it's just reform sweeping a lot uh and again this
00:22:54.020
this is a you gov poll you know this is not this is not an unpredictable unreliable uh pollster or
00:22:59.760
anything like this you know it's not lord ashcroft polls or something right uh and even then i think
00:23:04.340
the lord ashcroft polls nationally is actually going to be relatively reflective of what's going to happen
00:23:09.360
uh but i guess we'll see right i mean who knows we're in a strange era where strange things happen
00:23:14.900
anyway still fundamentally none of these polls are telling us something wildly different it's just
00:23:19.500
it's just the measure of the trouncing it's the scope yeah are you going to spend five years in
00:23:24.300
a coma or seven i mean that's that's what it's telling you the scale of the beating yeah basically
00:23:28.620
um so anyway let's let's talk about um the labor party because i think actually when you look at the
00:23:33.100
things the labor party is doing it's pretty explainable why this is all happening because
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the labor party under kia starmer and his um managerial bureaucratic cabinet uh are the worst thing
00:23:45.160
that anyone has ever seen uh you've got 38 labor mps uh signing an open letter to as the prime minister
00:23:51.840
to drop david alami's plan to do away with jury trials in some cases no kidding i can't believe
00:23:58.860
it's only 38 in this backbench revolt but i like the way this guy's framed it he says don't march us up
00:24:04.600
the hill only to be marched down again he knows that when this gets serious this is not going to stand
00:24:10.560
this cannot stand i mean if you get rid of jury trials i would actually rather that you got rid
00:24:15.740
of voting before you got rid of jury trials god yeah i'd rather at least know i'm going to get a
00:24:20.500
trial when i'm accused of something yeah not be able to vote for the next boring administration
00:24:25.040
yeah precisely so so this mp he knows that this is ultimately not going to be viable and he's just
00:24:33.280
saying you know rather than do all of this and then have to u-turn just just scrap it now and he is a
00:24:39.900
labor mp like for east hull again someone who's staring down the barrel of reform victory right
00:24:47.940
and he says you know many mps not in this letter have said they will rebel if necessary they know
00:24:53.060
what like i don't even know i don't even know why they think this was a good idea it's like yeah but
00:24:57.500
administrative reasons as david lammy argued uh we need to clear the back i think it is that simple
00:25:02.400
it's just they realized oh we got a backlog oh how can we speed up the backlog oh we just do this
00:25:07.520
it's just an admin fix and in their mind they can't understand the issue yes guilty people will
00:25:12.780
get put away faster what's what's what's the issue we literally did this at southport yeah like we
00:25:17.860
literally just go just tell them to plead guilty so we can do away the jury i mean it and it is our
00:25:22.600
courts and it is as vile as cps all of whom have a dot gov email will recommend a case um and it will go
00:25:29.980
before a judge who has a dot gov email because somebody said something that offended somebody
00:25:35.700
with a dot gov email yes i mean it's a total stitch up i mean there's there's literally no
00:25:42.860
pretense that we're a serious country if this goes through and but notice what you're saying that
00:25:46.780
we're going to cut the public out of their own jury trial system like the legal system like you
00:25:52.300
don't we are reducing everything to mere administration yeah and people are furious and even the labor
00:25:58.900
backbenchers like you know we're gonna we can't have this because our own constituents will
00:26:03.940
democratically lynch us at the ballot box for this like we will never be forgiven for this and
00:26:10.620
you'll notice that there's a bunch of things that they said they're going to do that are kind of
00:26:13.940
sitting in abeyance at the moment like what happened to the digital ids care
00:26:17.700
yeah that's disappeared hasn't it because it turned out everyone hated that the polling came out and it
00:26:22.880
was like people were about a third of the people were okay with it and now it's like you know
00:26:25.660
five percent or something i mean and the weird thing about that is for the first few months it
00:26:29.560
wasn't even funded no and nobody in the civil service knew what they were doing and then the
00:26:34.000
last disastrous budget they finally found some money they took some money off border patrol and
00:26:38.500
basically gave it to the digital ids um and yeah like you say at the point where it's a non-starter
00:26:44.680
yeah and it's like okay you don't you don't have the authority within your own party to get this
00:26:49.800
stuff pushed through uh and it's not just the backbench mps either they're losing the unions
00:26:56.220
to the left as lewis goodall tells us union ally christina mckneya however it's pronounced has lost
00:27:03.780
the unison general secretary election replaced by a leftist uh who is in promising to review the
00:27:09.700
labor unions relationship with the labor party themselves so if the labor party lose the bloody
00:27:15.020
unions too like what power bases do they even have left in the country i mean if they've lost
00:27:20.840
if they've lost voters and the markets and the unions
00:27:26.100
how are they getting elected again well i mean i guess they're not but i mean how are they getting
00:27:32.880
any votes at all is the that's a great question right well yes yes just do we even need the
00:27:40.760
elections so i said i said earlier i'd rather i'd rather lose the right to vote than the right to
00:27:45.740
a jury trial keir starman's like hold my beer dad why not both yeah yeah why not both yeah so uh this
00:27:54.580
for anyone who's not aware um labor are trying to rearrange the nature of the country and essentially
00:28:02.580
centralize local councils into much larger constituencies uh drawing you further away from
00:28:10.560
local government for some reason this is somehow devolution uh and this means that in the process
00:28:18.140
of doing that they have decided they're going to suspend the local elections for about 10 million
00:28:23.120
people who would have voted in these or could have voted in these elections significant portion of the
00:28:28.720
country now a lot of people are pointing out that that kind of looks bad not only have you been
00:28:36.500
getting absolutely waxed in these local elections but it looks like you're doing everything you can
00:28:44.620
to essentially subvert democracy to prevent nigel farage and reform from taking over which they
00:28:51.280
clearly are uh from absorbing significant portions of the labor vote which they clearly are in order to
00:28:59.000
continue a managerial regime that nobody agrees with not even the labor party nor the unions nor the
00:29:04.680
general public not anyone and so being like yeah we're just going to delay a bunch of elections
00:29:10.020
back the last time labor were in serious risk of losing power under gordon brown there was a lot of
00:29:16.740
talk like this yes about um you know perhaps we we perhaps we need to re-evaluate elections or change
00:29:23.580
the terms you know maybe we need to lower it to 16 we need all these things they were talking about
00:29:29.280
rigging the election but remember they changed the age of the general election down well no not not
00:29:34.240
not when it was gordon brown no no but they've done it yeah um but but because they knew they were
00:29:39.980
going to be replaced by the tories they never actually went ahead with it but the tendency remains
00:29:44.020
now it's now keir starmer and his fabians obviously feel it's a bit more existential
00:29:48.880
and so they're not just talking this time they're actually just doing the whole litany of things
00:29:53.880
to try and subvert democracy the elections are dangerous to our democracy yeah it's where they
00:29:59.480
have arrived at as their literal ruling what is the administrative value of an election it's just
00:30:06.240
it's just bureaucratic energy precisely no output what why would we want this and and also an election
00:30:12.740
can deliver the wrong result if it is all just i mean a jury can deliver the wrong result exactly all of
00:30:20.040
these things go against the managerial regime and so the managerial regime is like well no we don't
00:30:24.900
need to have elections in fact elections will be bad for us implementing this agenda and things even
00:30:29.360
the electoral commission is like what are you doing what are you thinking you know no these should go
00:30:35.020
ahead as planned you know issues linked to local government reform are not a valid reason for
00:30:40.700
postponement yeah pull staff off writing strategy papers and put them on dishing out ballots yeah i mean
00:30:48.080
their own quangos yes like this is too much all i literally all i want is the bins emptied and an
00:30:54.700
election yeah i don't care about all the other stuff that you do in fact i don't want you to do any of
00:30:59.720
the other stuff yes right so that's that's bad enough 63 council elections 10 million people who
00:31:04.520
would have voted in may because everyone knows come the may elections everyone knows the numbers are
00:31:10.560
already in from like the we we have all of these bellwether polls uh sorry we've got all these polls
00:31:16.780
catastrophic for labor we've got the bellwether by-elections that are just oh yeah they're all
00:31:21.860
labor down labor down labor down we've got everything pointing in the one direction that labor are going to
00:31:28.740
get thrashed well and the narrative behind that that the labor mps are having is yes this guy is a
00:31:35.320
disaster but why don't we wait until the may elections and then that will give us the momentum
00:31:40.280
needed to get rid of him as if he is starmer big brain that he is well we just get rid of the may
00:31:45.020
elections then yeah checkmate yeah i get to rule forever and the thing is this like you said this um
00:31:52.160
contempt for the concept of the election is quite deeply ingrained in the managerial order
00:31:56.800
they they pay lip service to it while they're winning and when they're losing well we need to start
00:32:02.320
thinking about ruling them out because in an interview with uh sky us the other day uh the
00:32:08.780
labor party chair refused three times to rule out delaying the next general election the general
00:32:14.620
election i mean how could you rule that out i refuse to rule you can kind of get away with local
00:32:20.200
election because actually really nobody cares that much yeah but but just scrapping the next general
00:32:25.980
election i mean you know if the electoral commission is like you can't just delay all the
00:32:31.980
local elections and i mean that is a i mean this is proper mask or fabianism now right but you can
00:32:38.000
see where their minds are right because i mean there's no other party in the country would be
00:32:43.100
like of course we're not going to delay the general election yeah right you know the conservatives had
00:32:47.240
election after election in the last like five years you know like bloody liz trust boris theresa may
00:32:54.020
you know the the conservatives are doing democracy properly you know i hate to say it you know and
00:32:59.300
and the labor party like know we're in power now so elections are actually a secondary issue because
00:33:05.080
we have another another agenda we're trying to implement and so the the question is on everyone's
00:33:10.080
minds is well why why hasn't kistama been told to resign by his own party right oh because they're
00:33:16.700
waiting for the may election to give them momentum that's why but why do we need to wait that long
00:33:21.240
you know what's happening to your party so dan hodges in the mail here wrote this article about uh
00:33:25.600
despairing because he he speaks to a lot of uh labor mps and uh the labor mps tell me this party
00:33:31.760
is forming a circular firing squad with kistama right at the center yeah and everything's falling
00:33:35.780
apart and he says he's got this great line in here right he says leaving through my notebooks for the
00:33:40.120
year conversations with his ministers contain a litany of identical phrases quote he is not present
00:33:45.460
kira's strangely detached he's literally never here i just can't get him to focus the same goes for
00:33:50.560
backbench mps he's cut us loose he has no interest in what any of us think i feel like i'm
00:33:55.060
invisible to him right so i mean it's at least it's nice to know that labor backbench is getting
00:34:00.380
the exactly same treatment as the rest of us yeah i guess so yeah i guess i but that's it really
00:34:05.900
interesting because you assume the labor party like any any political party you'd assume takes care of
00:34:13.380
its own constituents first right so you would think kiss i'm like right the unions are a core part of the
00:34:18.320
labor block i will take care of the unions you know i will make sure the unions are well on side
00:34:23.480
oh the the working class areas in the north uh of the country or the south of wales i will take them
00:34:29.940
in you know yeah okay i don't care about the southwest of england they never vote labor you
00:34:34.140
know i don't care about any of the you know like particular areas where the conservatives in the
00:34:38.600
southeast of england they never vote labor not my problem we're going to make sure we huddle
00:34:42.380
together you know draw to my bosom all of those reliable labor voters and show them that i'm their man
00:34:48.080
and that we are going to get their vote so we are not going to get absolutely wiped out with the
00:34:52.480
next election it's kind of bold because i mean it's classic elite theory isn't it it's the smithian
00:34:57.220
friend enemy distinction yeah and then and then keir starmer has come along and said
00:35:02.140
yeah i don't need the friend bit i'm i'm just i'm simply going to have enemies
00:35:06.860
i'm just everybody in the country including the including the bloody trade unions and my own
00:35:13.160
backbenchers everybody's an enemy and that is really what this is boiling down to
00:35:17.220
like the starmer bunker yeah is a very narrow thing at the very at the top of a very high tower
00:35:23.120
with a very with a very small number of people in it which is literally just the labor front bench
00:35:29.100
as far as i can tell and everyone else apparently kiss someone just go hang he's just a little wizard
00:35:34.840
in his tower yeah he doesn't care about anyone else it's like that is wild uh so anyway dan says
00:35:42.920
among ministers there's a growing belief that sometime next year starmer will formalize his withdrawal
00:35:48.520
from the premiership but i'm not seeing uh any evidence of this frankly i'm seeing evidence
00:35:54.000
that starmer intends to delay the elections that will be the cause of him having to give up power i mean
00:36:01.740
the more i learn about keir starmer as we go along in in a way i'm grateful that he's prime minister
00:36:07.320
because if he wasn't he would he would i bet there's another timeline where he is the most
00:36:15.660
and and when and when they start traveling dimensions people are going to be coming to
00:36:22.060
this one it's like what seriously he's the prime minister well he never dreamt he never had a feeling
00:36:27.520
he never lived like a human yeah uh so anyway the the point being the a bunch of uh the ministers
00:36:35.320
uh think he's got to go next year but so far i think what we've seen is him making moves that
00:36:42.060
kind of signal he doesn't intend to go next year no we're not going to have may elections we might
00:36:46.020
not even have another general election according to keir starmer which is insane and very sort of
00:36:51.560
bureaucrat right yeah this feels like the kind of behavior from the top of the european union like
00:36:56.400
who voted for ursula von der leyen and the answer is about like 12 bureaucrats you know they're the
00:37:01.660
actual ones who voted like the general public do not get any say in any of this
00:37:04.860
and keir starmer has taken that same kind of approach now remember he is a davos man
00:37:08.520
yeah you know he not a westminster guy he hates westminster so the the way that british politics
00:37:13.360
works he has been against and seems to be just revealing this so the the labor ministers who are
00:37:19.120
kind of operating in the previous paradigms thought process which is well okay this guy's failing he's
00:37:25.360
creating our party he's got to step down soon because there'll be an election and keir starmer's like
00:37:29.220
will there be you know and it's like right that's mad but don't rule anything out yeah i mean this guy
00:37:37.140
like he is well off the rails on almost everything right like nobody thought trial by jury was in doubt
00:37:45.320
nobody thought for a second digital id was coming in yeah like nobody thought any of like i mean what
00:37:51.940
are the mad things he done i mean when you frame it as the bureaucrat thing it suddenly makes perfect
00:37:55.920
sense to me because everybody is looking at this and thinking this is an aberration yes but if his
00:38:01.500
mind is working on bureaucrat rails yes what everybody else thinks is the aberration yes of course you just
00:38:08.780
have a managed bureaucracy and no elections exactly why are you thinking of a traditional british democracy
00:38:13.920
in which the people actually have because people can complain about democracy all they like
00:38:17.380
but while we have elections and our elections have been pretty good secure you know no nobody really
00:38:23.260
doubts this the the integrity i trust them far more than say american elections because i know
00:38:28.780
you go to the polling booths these little old dears who are actually conducting yeah they go in a
00:38:33.940
box box the lock box has got a wax seal on it um there's eyes on them at all time they're then taken
00:38:40.140
by a van to a big sports center a counting station yep and you as the candidate i did this at the ukip one
00:38:46.580
you can watch them counting yep you watch the you watch the wax seal being broken they're tipped out
00:38:51.840
into a desk in front of people including your representatives everybody's representatives and you
00:38:56.760
see everything i i trust the british electoral system apart from in tower hamlets sure yes and
00:39:02.140
maybe in leicester and a few places like that but the point is when when the british themselves are
00:39:07.100
conducting their elections completely trustworthy in my opinion uh and so and i think keir starmer
00:39:12.980
agrees with that which is why i think he wants to stop the elections um anyway so a bunch of people
00:39:18.720
uh here's a lord ashley poll that shows that uh about half the country think that just someone
00:39:23.600
else will be the leader of the labor party next year uh you know will who will still be in their
00:39:28.620
jobs by next christmas uh 48 of people think it's not going to be keir starmer uh because again they're
00:39:34.360
still operating in the previous paradigm uh it looks like genuinely he's are they asking everybody
00:39:39.180
in general or labor party members uh these are just general polls okay uh and so 21 of people think
00:39:46.780
it'll be keir starmer those people on the inside presumably who know what's happening uh but again
00:39:52.200
like okay fair enough you know it seems that people think that the conservatives and labor
00:39:58.220
are kind of done right so eight percent of people think zach polanski will leave the greens and he
00:40:03.420
tempted 10 of people think farage won't be the leader only eight percent of people think uh ed
00:40:09.380
davy but 26 of people and 48 of people in labor and conservatives again speaks to a remarkable
00:40:16.200
discontent oh it's it's well it's the thesis isn't it the the center's being hollowed out yes i mean
00:40:21.940
first blush i'm surprised about the kenny thing because conservatives are quite fratricidal yes
00:40:28.940
i mean they're change leaders just because they're bored let alone anything else
00:40:34.120
but people might be like the conservatives do love their yoruba mammies well maybe yeah
00:40:39.500
but the point is 26 of people saying that kemi won't be there it's still quite high it's pretty
00:40:46.200
bad yeah right you know the other the other the other parties at least seem to have representative
00:40:50.740
leaders they represent what the party is and the the people who vote for them are authentically that
00:40:56.460
thing labor and conservatives people like no i don't think they'll be there because their
00:41:00.560
parties are attacking everyone can feel it it's in the air right um and so people have been
00:41:07.280
complaining well hang on a second the government's asking tory control councils if they want to delay
00:41:11.840
and i saw um who was that woman from the apprentice i don't watch tv oh like dragon's den sorry right
00:41:19.280
there's some woman on dragon's oh deborah yeah yeah yeah she was like well why i saw her on twitter
00:41:24.960
the other day i tagged her in it actually because it was like she was like well why would why would
00:41:28.760
the conservatives agree to not having these elections when labor want to delay the elections
00:41:34.140
it doesn't make sense it's like well are they asking the leader of the council or as in the elected
00:41:40.620
politician yes or the chief executive of the council which is a government appointed position but either
00:41:47.880
way if you're the conservatives and you're also getting wiped out of the local elections
00:41:52.840
yeah maybe we can delay them well yes actually because okay it's bad for the labor party be worse
00:41:59.700
for the labor party but it's still really bad for us because we've seen the tallies as well where we've
00:42:04.740
had this and we've collapsed to this you've had that you've collapsed to that and reform and the
00:42:09.300
lib dems are taking everything yeah maybe we are okay with them it's the cockroach having a
00:42:14.400
conversation with the weevil about whether they should their house should be fumigated yeah yeah they're not
00:42:19.220
they're not happy with it and the labor party themselves are aware that if the if one of them
00:42:26.800
dies the other one dies right as we go back to neil kinnick former labor leader as you said
00:42:32.820
earlier in the podcast uh they're aware that it used to be business as usual right yeah yeah listen to this
00:42:40.500
but i would say that uh so much of our system and the integrity of our democracy depends upon there
00:42:53.740
being a rational forward-looking right of center party to contest the ideas of democratic socialist labor
00:43:06.120
that uh we'd all be losers if that option disappears
00:43:12.560
isn't that fascinating that is very revealing yeah i mean actually there was a there was um
00:43:18.540
after the 1997 general election tony blair was watching the results come in yeah and and and
00:43:25.080
maybe hadn't paid attention to many elections basically all you get for the first four hours is labor gains
00:43:30.500
because those are the constituents they're in a city so they so they're faster and he was looking
00:43:35.800
at this and it was nothing but but labor gains everywhere even into the bit where you should
00:43:40.220
have started to see some tory and and everyone around him was celebrating and he was bricking it
00:43:45.040
because he thought oh shit i've ever done this i need i need because the labor and the tory parties
00:43:50.180
they're two corpses that lean against each other yeah and he knew that and he was really worried that
00:43:55.560
you'd overdone it so when you're at the top level of this politics you understand the mechanism and
00:44:01.180
he's just explained it here it doesn't it doesn't work one without the other because because it's
00:44:07.060
because it's the illusion the containment yes the containment it's the containment that he's talking
00:44:11.720
about and again neil neil kinnick uh famous labor uh tory hater i mean he says at the beginning you
00:44:17.260
know far bit from me to make an appeal to the tories but if the tory party dies the labor party dies
00:44:22.800
it's the yin yang and so if the labor party dies the tory party dies
00:44:27.200
and so we're i mean i like that yeah it's great it's the end of containment right it's the end of
00:44:33.440
the system of making sure the british public never get what they bloody well want that's what he's
00:44:38.640
complaining about yes and look at him you know old old old chap now being like oh god you know
00:44:44.320
things have gone off the rails like yeah maybe you shouldn't have been a bunch of bloody traitors
00:44:47.720
uh for you for the duration when you were formerly the labor leader um they know that this is they're
00:44:55.580
in it together right they know and they're they're polling about as much as farage combined
00:45:00.900
but uh in in some of the polls as you we saw earlier the conservatives were not so deeply getting
00:45:10.260
trounced if i can just get back to that one second that one actually uh see so here we go um this
00:45:16.200
particular one from the variant group is the one that made a lot of waves so reform on 27 which is
00:45:20.940
good very good but not dominating in the same way that 33 is but the conservatives only on 21
00:45:27.500
now yeah that should be a total tragedy 50 when boris was in charge for example right yeah so total
00:45:36.000
tragedy but the concern still in the game exactly they're taking like oh no no actually this is not
00:45:41.980
the end of the world actually you know we're above the labor party somehow and so it's like well hang
00:45:48.580
on a second is this the badenock bounce is kemi badenock bringing the tories back from the brink
00:45:55.380
uh i i mean it's not a theory that i would advance myself no me either but it's not the end of the
00:46:04.860
world for the conservatives no well it's not great it's absolutely not great but the conservative vote
00:46:13.100
does seem to have stabilized around 20 so fifth of the country are inveterate conservatives no matter
00:46:21.180
who they put in charge yes no matter what nonsense they have done to us well maybe that maybe that's
00:46:25.240
why keir star wants to delay the next election until the rest of the toy vote dies off i mean maybe
00:46:30.860
but as neil kinnick pointed out that's the other party dead anyway so this has been a narrative
00:46:37.340
they've gone around oh the the tories are surging the surge is they didn't collapse as much as labor
00:46:43.040
that's the surge uh and they you know is kemi badenock bring us back from the brink whisper it says the
00:46:49.700
telegraph but the big knock is dragging them back it's like well the telegraph is just a tory
00:46:54.960
mouthpiece so you know the point is there's a kind of desperation in it because okay
00:47:00.700
they've had a couple of okay polls yeah in the last couple of polls but that's still not great
00:47:07.080
if you actually look at the aggregate polling so in the aggregate polling reformer on 29 percent
00:47:12.940
labor on 18 percent conservatives on 17 percent the greens are on 15 like is that you know a couple
00:47:19.760
of outlier polls which is what they're appealing to so what are they describing as a good result is it
00:47:25.800
getting official opposition i guess so they can't believe that they're going to win no obviously
00:47:31.540
they don't think right so it's official opposition yes not and not just just not being completely
00:47:36.440
crushed i'm not sure i'm gonna have to think through over christmas what that what happens in that
00:47:42.160
situation because if you've got reform as the main party and the conservatives as the opposition
00:47:47.700
what what does that make reform do do they shift to the right of the conservatives or to the left of
00:47:54.500
them i would hope what this does is create a kind of bidding war for who could be my most right wing
00:47:59.620
right now that i would like well yeah of course that'd be wonderful i that was that's what i'd hope
00:48:04.500
for yes um the interesting thing is without the sort of bully pulpit of being the opposition who cares
00:48:12.600
what labor and the green say you know like they'll be like oh but what about the climate change but what
00:48:17.440
about minority rights what about who cares like if it's between the tories and reform how about we
00:48:23.420
just deport all the illegals mate you've both pledged to do it yeah the way that is interesting
00:48:28.820
how about we cut the taxes i was kind of pledged to do it i was kind of getting warmed up to the idea
00:48:33.820
reform with the greens as the opposition because greens are such fantasies it'd be amazing it'd be
00:48:38.360
hilarious no you're you're selling me on because the conservatives when the conservatives are the most
00:48:43.500
based in opposition yeah in power they're arch liberals correct if they're the opposition and
00:48:51.080
they're doing their whole baster than thou thing i mean if jenrich ends up leading them yeah like again
00:48:58.260
i'm not a huge fan of jenrich but he's not terrible at all and he at least does say some base things
00:49:03.080
he says them yeah katie lamb you know there there are a few base tories and so actually a right-wing
00:49:11.200
bidding war would be nice and would at least push farage yes into a more hardline position which
00:49:16.500
okay great and they're all liking this they're all in fairly hardline positions as it is but to be
00:49:22.160
honest with you i would prefer the lib dems being the second party which they might be i know they're
00:49:26.100
only polling on 13 but like we've covered previously the lib dems concentrate in certain areas and so they
00:49:32.080
always punch well above their polling the national polling average yeah so this is deceptive it could
00:49:37.700
well they've got they've got a lot of vectors for attack if if you've got a really big garden you
00:49:41.980
might vote conservative if you correct if you really care about immigrants you might vote labor and if
00:49:46.340
you if you really sort of cloud in the head in the skies thing you might vote green so that so there's
00:49:52.300
lots of ways for them to shed voters there are and reform have got there because there is
00:49:57.440
well because they're not establishment exactly but the the lib dems i i think don't rule them out
00:50:03.320
um it's entirely possible they're the second party uh but it it's likely to be conservatives
00:50:08.580
or lib dems basically uh i don't think it's gonna be the labor party i mean what you get from this is
00:50:13.400
we don't know and it's it's fascinating yeah we don't know like that thing earlier you used to be
00:50:19.360
to sit down on election night and basically explain how the next eight to ten hours we're going to go
00:50:23.700
and okay we got a bit it's a bit longer out to the next election but who the hell knows what's going
00:50:28.880
on for second place no but the the thing i think for us because i mean this is up to the 15th of
00:50:33.740
december so we've got you know 10 days well ish uh of um polling that has come in and this is where
00:50:41.440
the sort of like the conservatives polling at 21 is bucking the trend a bit and reform getting down
00:50:48.020
to like 27 in some 25 in one you know nigel does want to make sure he pays attention to this right
00:50:55.340
because like we said last time i think that he probably is keeping his powder dry right like i
00:51:01.540
know a lot of people are not hopeful for base nigel uh coming out but i i do think he moderates
00:51:06.900
himself on purpose he'd definitely get more base in a run-up to an election i agree right and but this
00:51:12.540
is this is a thing that he wants to pay attention to and actually having a couple of um aces up his
00:51:18.200
sleeve that he can pull up which blindside them uh like for example you know i don't know something
00:51:23.620
on nuclear power something on um just an unusual political football that isn't usually being kicked
00:51:29.840
right well i mean we only got deportation of foreign criminals in the weeks leading up to the last
00:51:35.580
general election because he suddenly said yeah this this manifesto isn't strong enough yeah right let's
00:51:40.060
put in deporting foreign migrants and stuff so maybe next time it will just be remigration program
00:51:45.120
yeah and you know abolishing inheritance tax i don't know stuff that the the other guys are just
00:51:50.160
essentially not going to agree with uh that he can distinguish himself on maybe maybe you'll do
00:51:53.940
that but the the question that we i have been raising over and over is sorry who who votes for
00:52:00.680
the labor party who is that 18 right you know no but look at look at look at what kiss armor put out
00:52:09.580
uh yesterday in fact this christmas a lot of people working hard to keep our country safe often away
00:52:14.880
from their families we invited public sector workers to downing street for an early christmas dinner to say
00:52:20.100
if i can get the sound up on that we'll watch it you must be the delivery
00:52:29.600
it's got a bit of garlic in very nice i think i did that that's what you thought i was in a cabinet
00:53:01.340
we wanted to invite you in to downing street to say a big thank you to you because in here we've got
00:53:18.760
lots and lots of people who are working on christmas day um helping to keep us safe and sound many of
00:53:25.620
your families won't necessarily see you on christmas day and we really really want to say a big thank you we wanted to get you to come in for lunch to say thank you for that give you your christmas lunch a little bit early and through you all the people that are working on christmas day we want to say thank you to you how's your food
00:53:41.520
oh fantastic toast good gravy good i was stirring the gravy earlier on oh well done one two oh so enjoy it um and have a really good afternoon and you're very welcome to our house thank you very much indeed
00:53:56.040
now no expense spared you know he's personally doing the gravy and the potatoes and things like that
00:54:04.260
for the public sector workers yes well you put out a tweet the other day which was something along the
00:54:09.720
lines of you've received um whatever it is a nine percent pay rise this year and he he didn't even
00:54:16.340
mention oh yeah but that's just the public sector workers yes because remember we covered it last time
00:54:21.260
they were the ones who were twice inflation in their pay rises yes uh we can see keir starmer's
00:54:28.760
constituency coming into view he didn't get the unions in didn't get you know he didn't go down to you
00:54:35.540
know somewhere in wales or in the door he didn't do this for labor mps didn't do it for the mps like
00:54:40.700
no no you're all out in the cold yeah he gives you nothing he cares about you not a wit yes because you
00:54:47.700
are all essentially connected to the concept of democracy but these people have nothing
00:54:54.520
exactly they are they are the the the sinews of the bureaucratic structure and then he the system
00:55:03.940
itself he brings closest to his chair in his weird soulless way he he loves the system the system over
00:55:12.140
everything the people who run the system are the heroes of the country as far as he's concerned
00:55:17.100
nothing to do with electoral politics nothing to do with uh and he's just going around cancelling
00:55:23.020
elections ending election uh ending uh jury trial and none of it's legal but he he's just like the
00:55:29.340
emperor palpatine he was like i will make it legal and i don't care because the people who actually run
00:55:35.480
the system will all support me yes they are my true support base if i cancel elections you'll be angry
00:55:42.720
but these people who push papers and make sure that you know the the various sort of organs you know
00:55:48.220
the the mechanics of governance they will all continue because they're my people and they
00:55:53.380
understand them it's saddam hussein and the bathists all over again yeah it might only be 26 of the
00:55:58.740
country but that's all i need well what percentage of the country do you think are civil servants uh is it
00:56:05.300
about 26 the same as the bathists what were they polling um oh yeah good point like 13 wasn't it
00:56:11.800
18 18 precisely 18 and they just so happen to be averaging 18 in the polls and there's only one
00:56:21.880
constituency that keir starmer even attempts to court isn't that interesting well that is that the the
00:56:28.640
the big scooby-doo reveal at the end and it was worth it right yeah the whole thing it suddenly
00:56:34.640
comes into view doesn't it like this is why he doesn't care about anyone because it takes 6.2 million
00:56:40.580
people to apparently run this country and he's capturing them onto his side that's what i think is