It's an Absolute Bloodbath
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Summary
It's the morning after election day, and there's still a lot to digest from the night before. We look at how the polls stack up against the projections, and see how they stack up with the actual results. And we take a look at the results from the first round of counting, and try to make sense of what we've seen so far.
Transcript
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hi folks welcome to another one of our political chats it is the morning after the day before
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uh the comet has hit the labor party and i mean i'm gonna try not to look so happy about it
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throughout this whole thing but it's been great well not only did the comet hit it then reversed
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up and then just ran over labor again and then just did that a few more times yeah yeah and not
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just labour um so it's it's been um quite bad so far however most of the results actually still
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aren't in uh with local council elections and the devolved councils they actually don't count them
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through the night even though the votes are counted in the thousands rather than the tens
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or hundreds of thousands yes so they could have done but they don't for whatever reason
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and there is a little bit of a bias here in that the in-city places are more likely to count through
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the night because they got the infrastructure to do it and they got less traveling to get them
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there so it's the leafier places but nevertheless that's well understood in british politics and
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therefore even though the first results are extra um you know skewed towards urban centers we can
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take that into account yeah and so there are lots of results that aren't out yet but we're going to
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go through the ones that are out we're recording this at about 11 o'clock on friday morning so
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we have a fair amount in actually which is enough to draw some conclusions and the conclusions aren't
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great so we're going to go through what the predictions were and then see how they're
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beginning to stack up with the results so i mean this is just an article from uh what was it the
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telegraph or someone like uh new statesman sorry uh where the and i've just picked this as just a
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common uh barometer of the expectations of these results it's just this is going to be a wipe out
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in england labor are just going to get creamed i mean these expectations are important important
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and they were expected to have a terrible night,
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Starmer could have a credible claim to hanging on.
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Spoiler alert, he did not have just a bad night.
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Reform on 25, so they've gone up one point on average
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so they've recovered slightly and they've plateaued there.
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another very mild spoiler alert even though reform have come off quite a lot it goes to show what you
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can do when all your opposition is fragmented as yes yes yeah the the most notable thing here really
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is the greens have had a bit of a slump recently yes um but they're still well within the sort of
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16 to 18 percentage points the lib dems uh not really anything's changed and restore britain
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of course still down at four percent which is good for a party that still isn't being prompted
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on the polls so the projections for the seats look something like this now this stats for lefties
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does incredible work when it comes to the actual objective data don't look at their profile but the
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the work they do is genuinely incredible and what this is an average of projections produced by eight
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polling experts that didn't use ai so that aren't just ai slop and so the final projected results
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they've come to is 1656 for reform 656 for greens 152 for lib dems other which includes lots of
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muslim independence 99 but that would also include restore uh minus 760 for the conservatives and
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minus 1803 for the labor party now the there are about 5 000 seats being contested and i think
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there's like 12 000 in total is it 16 there's a lot more yeah it's about a third of the seats
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Yeah, that are being contested today or yesterday.
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And Labour have about 2,500 of them, something like that.
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and they are being projected that they will lose.
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There are loads of these projections, of course,
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and you've got other projections where you've got people saying,
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and then Labour losing 1,300, or somewhere between 900 to 1,300,
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because, of course, these are all up in the air.
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But so it's basically the same story that everyone has, which is, well, it's going to be rough for everyone on the ground, apart for it.
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As we've been saying on the show for a long time, the centre is just dead.
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Sky News actually have quite a good breakdown here.
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and this is where they point out there's 25 000 candidates competing for the 5 000 seats which is
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actually as they tell us an unprecedented level of choice for local elections because again local
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elections normally get about 30 29 30 percent of turnout people are not really that bothered about
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them generally for some reason but this one has become particularly fascinating for years in this
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country it was normal to have two choices it wasn't unheard of to have a single choice because
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people just didn't take local elections seriously and i don't think people do take um local elections
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seriously at this point but they are willing to use them as a as effectively a uk midterms
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that and that is generally how this is being received by not just the political class
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but i think people in general i think it is being understood that no we're actually going to
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cause a bit of a ruckus here because the turnout from what has come out so far does seem to be
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higher than normal yes we'll get into that uh in a bit um but the the point that you made that our
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electoral system being completely shattered and fragmented is not something it is actually
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designed for and this is really beginning to show here because they point out that in the 2024
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elections um some one candidate won a seat with 15 support 15 of the vote okay right because so
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many options i'm out if you get like five percent seven eight percent well i got fifteen percent
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that's continental politics that is yes but it's in a system that's not designed for it
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so it's in the first part of the post so it's winner take all well i mean that's that's i mean
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if you listen to um mainstream media um which i i dipped into this morning they're all saying
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that they don't think the two-party system can survive that the first part of the post can't
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survive on the back of this that's not my take on it because actually changing something as
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fundamental as the first past the post is a major that would actually be more difficult than just
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deporting all the nons for example it is it is a major constitutional shake-up but i think they're
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right that our political system is not designed for this level of fragmentation so probably what's
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going to happen is is some of the parties are just going to have to die which is why we're going to
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get into whatever the new paradigm is and these results are a strong indication as to what that's
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going to look like yeah and that's that's why this local election uh this set of local elections
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are so interesting to the political commentariat oh yeah because the we are witnessing in real time
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the death of the old world yeah i think i think i heard on the beau show this morning breakfast
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of beau do check that out every morning that's good um one of the um one of the one of the super
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chats he had in at the end was apparently the americans were announcing they discovered
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alien life today or something i mean interesting but nobody is nobody is going to care about that
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at all right nobody in britain is paying attention to that whatsoever because this is more important
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yeah no yeah this actually matters um so yes things are going badly for labor and so the
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backstabbing has begun now this is a remarkable uh insider article from the telegraph uh because
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apparently a group of Labour MPs have um prepared an open letter demanding a timetable for Keir
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Starmer's resignation because they were well aware oh my god this is this is going to be horrible I
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mean literally a bloodbath um number 10 found that uh West Streeting has apparently secretly
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gathered the 81 MPs needed to trigger a formal leadership challenge how do you think they found
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out about that well I mean when it's 81 people and their MPs I mean they're not exactly gonna
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be that good at keeping secrets so they've probably been telling journalists for months now
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yeah you'd think that'd be the way that they'd find out wouldn't you yeah no it turns out that
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some retard accidentally texted downing street the secret plan this is the level of incompetence
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in the labor party yes those are the people are wanting the country exactly you can't even run
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your own secret plots like you you absolute morons right right and another another thing
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they were just done and that's normally what the conservatives do yeah yes he made only 11 visits
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in the campaigning season of two months uh because voters of course find him completely toxic now
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this is not good um but also what's not good for labor is their uh coalition is just falling apart
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as uh five pillars point out here british muslims are abandoning labor in historic numbers uh there's
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only 33 percent of muslims in areas of high muslim population density would vote for labor
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uh that's really brutal i mean if if it wasn't it used to be 90 yeah i mean it used to be 90 i mean
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if it wasn't that it came along with the destruction of my country i'd probably find
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this really funny because labor spent 30 years bringing in as many muslims as they possibly could
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under the assumption that they would vote labor and they would get to be in power forever
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and what actually happened is they brought in so many that they decided you know what we can
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actually just do our own thing now we don't need labor anymore and so and so it's split labor down
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the middle that all of their new voters have gone on they offended their existing voters to such a
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degree that they've gone as well so even the conservatives somehow are in a better position
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than labor because labor has just broken their whole their whole internal coalition apart with
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this it's amazing isn't it i mean look at this look at these numbers so out of the 90 that they
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had up until uh only a few years ago now it's only 33 percent 27 of them would vote green which
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again exactly what you expect 14 would go for a pro-gaza independent and this is what you're
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saying yep nine percent would vote conservative and five percent would vote reform well and
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nigel forage will invest an enormous amount of energy in driving that to six and a half percent
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and probably fail all that pandering yes five percent yes what a terrible embarrassment so
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much back and and what you're going to see is is basically it's going to cascade through that so
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of those remaining labor muslims a lot of them will trickle into the greens but it's going to
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be the same story all over again it's going to be yeah this is a vehicle to get us so far yeah
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and the moment i mean a bit like um i mean the uh the president of turkey um erdogan said this
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years ago he said the democracy is a bus and you get off when it gets you to where you're going
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yeah and that's true for these people and so i mean it's true for everyone but it's
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yeah like i hate using the word sectarian because sectarian implies um internal conflict within
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a particular religion right this is an this is an alien religion that's not having that we can't
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have a sectarian is a better word because i can't no not really that's the problem but anyway look
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this was an eminently predictable yes this was eminently predictable all right when you give
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them a critical mass they'll end up voting for their own pro-gaza independence will they yeah
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until they get a proper muslim party they will yeah and one day they'll get like in belgium have
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and was i think it's the netherlands will have like an actual islamist party at this yes it's
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like oh great that's what and if politics stays ragmented to your point you you can normally win
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on like 30 of the vote yeah but as you pointed out you can sometimes win on 15 on the vote
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lots of cities and lots of regions lots of constituencies in this country today
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because yes our muslim population isn't actually that large americans sometimes think it's much
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it's only about seven or eight percent yeah officially it's 6.5 but it's probably about
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seven or eight percent but where they are yeah they come in numbers that's right so they they
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concentrated in the yeah they will be able to have their own lib dem size party quite soon
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probably the next election yeah yeah no unfortunately that's definitely true in fact
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we um we can map it out so there's uh the british the muslim council of britain actually have some
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numbers on this they say that there are 32 out of the 650 constituencies with a significant which
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is 20 or more muslim population aged 18 years and above so you can expect there to be around 30
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gaza mps come the next election i mean just just remarkable yeah i mean just that gaza has 30 mps
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in britain yeah thank you tony blair from and the conservative party for really rubbing our faces
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in diversity yeah mission achieved yeah mission accomplished good job but i guess that explains
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the net favorabilities right everyone hates everyone um kia starmer obviously rishi sunak
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back there in october minus 30 kia starmer minus 45 nigel farage minus 16 so that's not bad
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davy minus 12 kemi baden not really only weirdly only on minus six but she's a bit of a non-entity
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that's that's the other normie media take that if you listen to the normie media they will say that
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um the conservatives and the labor have the opposite problem uh in in labor keir starmer
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is even more unpopular than his party somehow yeah but but kemi badenock is more popular than
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a party yes okay yes normie commentators that is true but it's still negative yeah it's still
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it's still all the way down but and also the other thing about this chart right is the only reason
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it looks comprehensible is because they can scale it because everybody is negative if you were to
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put if you were to put naiba kelly on the same chart the scaling would be so off that you wouldn't
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be able to read the bit at the bottom yeah his his positive figure is about plus 75 percent yes
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which is in net plus 75 yes as in he gets about 80 to 90 percent you you made a good video on
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on your was it a cad day recently where he said look what if a politician just presses the fix
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everything button what happens plus 75 favorability and and in this country all we get is explanations
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as to why you can't have what you want yes everybody is negative and kemi badenock is
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held out to be some sort of master politician because she's on minus six
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but i mean look at keir starmer he began with a positive rating like and then actually yeah
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yeah he did he began with like a plus 10 rating which is surprisingly good i mean no one else
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has had that and then yes south and then then he had the brilliant idea of responding to a mass
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murder by blaming parents who were upset about it berating and hectoring the white british
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population is upset that their children are being stabbed and that that within the first few months
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of his leadership ensured that labor would probably never form a government again right and then
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recently he he he has seen uh the mandelton crisis he was seen to have pushed through a friend of a
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pedophile um into a key influence position where he was literally giving away state secrets for
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access to whatever goes on in that island and that's and that's really like a friend of a
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paedophile is kind of underselling it as well yes a friend of the world's most notorious paedophile
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well yes trafficker yes and if that wasn't bad enough literally giving away state secrets at
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sensitive crisis points so i mean yeah i mean how is he still on minus 45 yeah i know who what what
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does a keir starmer supporter look like at this point but the thing we haven't mentioned is one
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mr polanski oh yes yeah as you can see his his favorability was doing quite well but that's
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because most of the electorate just didn't know who he was well he was ahead of he was ahead of
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farage yeah quite recently wasn't he and because there'd be you know the the sort of 30 percent
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who were like yeah i love zach polanski like you know 10 or 15 percent like or whatever the numbers
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are but the percentage that don't like zach polanski but then like 50 percent of people
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like i've never heard of zach polanski they hadn't made up their mind yet his star has been steadily
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rising he's become a national figure essentially what we're saying is is quite important to make
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a good first impression on those 50 when you do cut through to that 50 make sure that you're
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presenting them with an image that they can think yeah that's all right i agree with that yeah don't
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be like i'm annoyed that you're kicking a man who stabbed people in the face in the head the police
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definitely shouldn't be kicking this guy to get the knife out of his hand after he's literally
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you stab two people in the face yeah i mean for anyone who's not british watching um we had a
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stabbing um in was it london gold is green gold is green yeah gold is green in london which is a
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very jewish area there was a man decided oh there's some jews here i will stab them in the face
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yes and the police uh unarmed grabbed this guy put him to the floor tasered him but he wouldn't
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let go of the knife and so they started kicking him in the head to get him to let go of the knife
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and zach polanski was like that's unacceptable yes yeah and it's like no the fact that he wasn't
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shot immediately and accepted yes yeah but that was the first thing that got through to the 50
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percent of the people who hadn't heard him yeah thus the almost straight line down 14 points
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downwards yes um so not not great for mr polanski um but this has always been the problem with the
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greens is that um normally in in historic times the greens were just kind of kooks like eco kooks
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but the it was very clear they were seen as harmless yeah exactly seems like you know harmless
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sort of eccentric eco coups kind of like pierce corbyn yeah sandal wearing yogurt weaving lentilists
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that sort of thing exactly and what polanski has done is and this has been happening for a while
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but they've been sort of bringing in the sort of radical left into the party to pander to radical
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leftist student radical leftist and uh foreigners and so okay that's great and you've still got the
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green branding so underneath the uh actual branding something has changed something
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substantively different has changed um it's only a matter of time until the public eventually sees
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that oh yeah and when they finally see what the green party has become they're gonna be like oh
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right i don't want that and so all really that we want about zach polanski is further exposure to
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the public yes that's what we want i know i want i want to see the open borders policies i want to
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see the pandering to minorities policies i want him to see the i'm going to destroy the economy
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policies and i want him to just say yeah basically i'm going to offer up your country as a buffet
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to everyone else i mean i was at a family gathering not so long ago which um the way that the
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generation sizes in the uk work means i've got loads of aunts and uncles because because they're
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boomers there's just it's loads of them that's literally they're literally a baby boom right
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yeah and and the subject i'd like 12 of them yes and and and the subject of the greens came up and
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and they were talking about them like they're actually a green party and i was sat there
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listening to this and thinking should i no i know i'm just i'll continue no no that's good that's
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good um so like let's talk about them like they're actually a green party how do you explain this
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person right this is one of their candidates uh who herself is descended from a nigerian royal
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house like dr shola chauti shola um who herself is the descendant of slave traders right because
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that's what the nigerian royal houses were yes they would sell them big time to the british in
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fact and to the portuguese and whoever in fact they they when we stopped the slave trade it was
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those guys who went mental it's like what you're cutting off our business they literally begged us
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yes not do this and she's the descendant of that saying no we need to be paying reparation to black
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people it's like but that would be you and that would mean that you want reparations for lost
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business so essentially this sounds like an invocation of tort law as in you're interfering
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with my contracts i mean talk about double dipping yeah why why this person is in the green party
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is the question right how how do you explain that to your boomerangs and uncles
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well the way well the way i would actually explain it is um white people are stupid
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enough to get conned like this yes and you're one of them because you think the greens are
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about the environment yes so anyway um just to be clear there's also uh local devolved elections
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in scotland and wales at the moment um but these results won't be until later anyway um but the
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uh the breaking news labor are going to get crushed in both of them uh it looks like played
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cymru and reform will be uh vying for first place in wales uh which has been held by labor for 27
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years now i mean again again to put again since since the beginning of the devolved parliaments
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to put to put wales is labor labor is wales it is effectively the same thing to put this
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in perspective for anybody not from the uk welsh people are um i mean they're just these
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that they want to be miners yeah they're basically are dwarves they're very annoyed that they have to
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be above ground they don't really like it they want to be under there mining coal and that is
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where the Labour Party effectively came from the early Labour politicians were overwhelmingly Welsh
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it is it is a Welsh creation so for Labour to get wiped out and well they're not quite wiped out but
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they're but they've received a proper beating brutal yeah in Wales I mean that is huge news
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like i say the results aren't in but um yeah you're exactly right it was welshmen who created
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the labor party yes and all like nye bevan and all that with the nhs and all this right
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and you know fair enough this is you know a perfectly respectable thing to have done
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and it was of course labor who created the devolved parliaments yep so the welsh senate
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and wales have ruled it for 27 years as a fiefdom and now they've lost it basically
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rights nose and diversity, so bringing massive diversity
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that destroyed them because they brought in so many
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Muslims that they became dependent on them
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so that means that even if Labour wanted to do anything about anything they can't now even do it
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so so Labour basically you it it it just a quick thing on that Keir Starmer literally said I pull
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a lever and nothing happens yes and it's like yeah you are now finding yourself butting up
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to your own party's constitutional innovations but effectively new Labour changed the rules in
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such a way as to guarantee 20 years 20 30 years later their own destruction yes and there's nothing
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they can do at this point the chickens are very clearly coming home to roost here and uh i'm all
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for it because oh yeah screw the labor party uh anyway so let's get into some results so far
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i'm just going to refresh this because like i said the results are still coming in and we've
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had this up for a little while so just to make sure we've got the uh the latest data so we've
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had about a thousand seats come in um reform have won 300 of them which is not bad labor have lost
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200 of them but they have won 245 so it's not that they haven't won anything it's that they've just
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lost about half of just yeah but i mean we're talking about you've got to remember a lot a lot
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of people vote and have voted that way their entire lives yeah a lot of people don't think
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about politics ever they when with their when they get involved in politics they ask their parents
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who they vote for and they get told and a lot of people don't think past that stage so a lot of
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seat a lot of regions have been labor forever or at least the last 100 years okay and and and so
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actually there's a huge amount of momentum to overcome so yes they are going to win some seat
00:24:20.960
well they're retaining seats yeah that's the most they can do at this point so the the thing that
00:24:26.040
we're learning so far is actually that the greens are the ones underperforming here
00:24:32.100
yes the lib dems are doing quite well actually uh the conservatives are not getting wiped out
00:24:38.640
as badly as expected and reform are doing pretty much par on the average of predictions at this
00:24:45.240
point yeah um but the greens are the ones who are underperforming uh we've got i think uh yeah more
00:24:50.340
in from here here's a slightly updated one actually because this is a problem so again
00:24:54.740
like the the lib dems uh this is the total number not the uh the net change you can see the net
00:24:59.960
change at the bottom again the green's only on 27 libs on 37 reform of course 400 was this is the
00:25:06.440
sort of thing we'd expect just just going through this this this has been reforms election yeah of
00:25:12.860
course um again everyone knew it would be yeah um restore aren't in the game yet because they're
00:25:18.540
too new yeah they're they're they're still getting the the nuts and bolts of party apparatus set up
00:25:23.700
so this is they they weren't able to contest local election just a quick thing on that it's
00:25:27.720
probably best to stay out of this oh yeah because there there is something titanic happening and
00:25:33.040
it's a in fact we'll get to uh that in a minute but it's probably best to just let this play
00:25:39.360
itself out right because this is not something that is um something that uh clever campaigning
00:25:47.000
can actually turn yes i actually think this is kind of written into the stars uh the the labor
00:25:52.840
and conservative parties would just get absolutely stomped as a protest from the british electorate
00:26:00.080
I think that reform are basically the vehicle they're using.
00:26:02.140
This is Act 2, where the movie monsters are fighting it out between them
00:26:17.540
at least one seat off the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems and Greens.
00:26:25.400
conservatives in a normal year that result would be a resigning matter for the conservative leader
00:26:32.140
oh yeah oh yeah i mean but luckily for kemi she's not in the headlines no kiss i mean this is this
00:26:39.660
is a brutal beating yeah for labor and just i mean look at the overall numbers at the moment yes
00:26:45.420
the conservatives are still ahead of the labor party which is unusual in the local elections
00:26:49.960
anyway yeah um this no one's going to be looking at the conservatives and saying you had a terrible
00:26:54.980
night because actually they expected worse yes they expected to be completely crushed the fact
00:27:00.440
they're still ahead of the lib dams the lib dems are having a great night so it's just like okay
00:27:05.120
interesting very interesting lib lib dems um again um i mean that you're right they are doing well
00:27:11.700
but well within the the third party status yes this is a tremendous result if your ambition is
00:27:20.320
to be third party yes but it has shown even in conditions like this even with the most perfect
00:27:25.400
setups condition conditions possible the lib dems are never going to become the main opposition they
00:27:31.040
they just can't that all they can do is third party that's a strong result for third party but
00:27:35.800
that's it right greens they are supposed to be emerging as the new second party in this paradigm
00:27:41.100
and it's all right i don't know if i were the greens i'd be kind of annoyed
00:27:46.900
like i would be expecting more out of this yeah but it's but again it's it's lib dem territory
00:27:51.520
it's it's all right for an emerging yeah second party third tier party but it's not but that is
00:27:57.180
not the the the narrative around the greens was zach polanski is uh soaring is surging oh yeah
00:28:04.560
like the wind is in their sails they're unstoppable he should have had hundreds
00:28:08.040
yeah and and he's got you know an all right result for the greens compared to where they have been
00:28:13.140
but what this tells me and especially as it's the inner cities that like you said are coming in
00:28:18.640
first yes in fact let me get a map here we go right so um as as you say um we've got a lot yeah
00:28:25.780
that's exactly what i'd expect yeah now i mean don't get me wrong there's a lot of london that's
00:28:29.220
left out and you know we've got some cities portsmouth but i mean that's pretty busy
00:28:33.300
birmingham hasn't come in yet so don't get me wrong and manchester and yeah so don't get me
00:28:37.920
wrong the greens are gonna see a lot more gains in the future um but this this hasn't been
00:28:44.380
uh like the surge that i was expecting from the greens i mean maybe maybe it changes when some
00:28:51.480
of those other constituency comes in but at the moment it's like i think it probably does i think
00:28:55.860
it's probably fair um but it's it's it's not the energy that we were expecting the social media
00:29:01.860
game and the own the sort of self-narrative of the greens yes hasn't actually been a self-fulfilling
00:29:07.500
profs well this brings me to my point can you just go go back one to the yeah yeah that one so so
00:29:12.760
this brings me to my point right is that actually the conservatives labor and lib dems they're
00:29:17.240
actually still in the game now one of them one of those four after reform are going to become the
00:29:24.320
left-wing vote it's probably not going to be the conservatives because you've already got a supposed
00:29:28.740
right-wing party so labor lib dems and the greens they're actually in contention so if i was put it
00:29:35.780
this way if i was andy burnham or angela rayner i'd be looking at it as thinking yeah who's going
00:29:42.160
to be the opposition to perform because that's the logic of the system yeah are do greens have
00:29:48.020
escape velocity and it's like if that was a rocket it's gone up gone fast enough but it's
00:29:55.200
probably going to come down in the ocean with a bang yep and that's exactly the way to look at
00:30:00.740
this i think yep um so uh let's let's get some individual highlights like wigan is a great one
00:30:06.560
uh where the the north is i think just using reform as a weapon against labor wigan has uh
00:30:15.000
labor have held wigan council but lost all of the 22 seats it was defending to reform so
00:30:20.060
uh as you can see there were you know there's however many like 70 seats on the council in
00:30:23.960
wigan uh and labor because they're not being contested cling on to the 42 they've got
00:30:29.180
yeah but the ones that they were contesting all went to reform wow all of them yeah wow now you
00:30:36.080
see reform have also taken off the conservatives and the independents there as well you have to
00:30:40.360
reformers should be careful about this right yes because i think your phrase that um the north are
00:30:45.120
using reform like a weapon against labor is true but they did that with boris yes the red wall and
00:30:51.900
they didn't stick with those tories did they you know so like there's there's a lot of memes going
00:30:55.680
around which is genuinely funny uh you know and i i'm i'm totally behind our northern uh friends
0.96
00:31:05.480
and countrymen in just use whatever tool is at hand to bludgeon the crap out of the traitorous
00:31:10.760
system that's betrayed us yes just use whatever is at hand but i think that they will pick up
00:31:15.380
another weapon when reformed is a point exactly and this is the thing that i mean i don't know
00:31:21.880
what farage and that is taking from this but um what the tories took from this is that they didn't
00:31:27.980
have to actually do what they promised to do in the north and so the tories aren't getting the
00:31:32.560
love that they might have i mean when boris i remember you know the famous picture of boris
00:31:37.200
going yeah after he took the north and like you know domic cummings in the background like you
00:31:41.200
know with his with his uh laptop and whatnot like that that felt like a genuine sea change in favor
00:31:46.580
of the conservatives it looked like oh my god boris has won the north they wrote they but they
00:31:50.240
completely misunderstood the moment and and there were traditional tories about it i'm like okay
00:31:55.540
well we're getting the knife now in the back sorry you know and so reform well they assumed
00:32:00.020
oh that means there are voters now yes we own them and that's the thing about the mog thing
00:32:04.820
where he's like no there's a reform vote and a tory vote yes and it's like no there's not and
00:32:08.900
and tories still think like that to this day and i know because every single time i finish a youtube
00:32:13.800
video i get rica popped up telling me either that yeah or that reform have got to somehow
00:32:22.200
keep the tories on life support for some reason why i can't yeah for some inexplicable reason
00:32:27.640
we need to keep the tories alive so i don't think we do actually um but the thing that reform i
00:32:32.600
think need to take from this is this doesn't necessarily signal devoted lifelong reform
00:32:39.520
voters no right and that's the important thing the i do think reform is being used as a weapon
00:32:45.140
against the enemies of the northern working class which again i totally support use whatever
00:32:50.780
whatever you've got to hand but don't mistake this for for love of farage and his conservatives
00:32:56.960
because all of the conservative defectors i mean i saw ze use have been like right the end's over
00:33:01.900
you can't now defect from the tories it's like yeah but why did you want to anyway we'll carry
00:33:07.060
reform took uh plymouth seat from the greens which is interesting yeah like quite a significant if
00:33:13.840
greens had had a good night that wouldn't have happened this isn't a labor area but you can see
00:33:17.680
the conservatives and the greens both took a hell of a whacking from reform there which is interesting
00:33:22.920
you know the greens yep should be on the ascent um and as you pointed out the greens only do well
0.55
00:33:30.520
if they've got students or muslims which oxford happens to have a lot of so the greens have done
00:33:35.180
quite well in oxford um which okay good that's you know good good start but you but you kind of
0.98
00:33:42.520
have to be either a young woman or a muslim to think what the greens are well the the muslims
0.92
00:33:49.020
know what the greens are proposing is good for them oh yeah the young women think that what the
0.97
00:33:53.720
greens are proposing are good for them but you need to have that level of either you know
0.50
00:33:57.520
secretarian self-interest or sheer naivety to vote for the greens yes you have to be a wide-eyed
00:34:03.200
bunny rabbit in the headlights yeah to vote for them i mean like this was i don't even know where
00:34:07.840
this was but good luck in the pakistani elections which are taking place across england today
00:34:30.300
correct under the banner of the green party uh again this would have been in one of those inner
00:34:35.460
city areas where there's lots of muslims or students and uh so they're literally putting
00:34:40.220
with government i mean here's a report from raja here who's at the count in oldham a reformer of
00:34:45.360
course doing well but the leader of the pakistani sectarian oldham group and his entourage have
00:34:49.720
just run out apparently someone smashed up his ferrari have we been explaining to you that the
00:34:58.200
the the um uh turkish barbers don't really ever seem to have customers in but they all have very
00:35:05.040
nice cars outside well we got we got a whole number of turkish barbers in um in in swindon
00:35:10.200
and i noticed the number of premium german autos outside almost always beats the number of customers
00:35:18.280
inside and i'm and i'm thinking and i would say i'm no economist but i am and it doesn't and it
00:35:23.960
doesn't make any sense to me how the economics of that adds up unless i start making extra
00:35:28.720
assumptions that the constabulary should be taking an interest in yes and this is just one of those
00:35:33.820
things where everything kind of lines up here perfectly yes so the white working class have
00:35:37.860
decided no we're just going to come out and vote for reform the uh the the the leaders of the um
00:35:43.840
illicit economy have turned up with their lovely things and i don't know what happened with his
00:35:48.680
ferrari that's a terrible shame the lovely cars they are ferraris they are beautiful yeah so you
00:35:53.640
know best of luck for that chap getting that repaired anyway so what conclusions can we draw
00:35:59.940
from this now this is um more in common director luke trill uh who i who shares basically uh many
00:36:06.640
of the conclusions i've come to but we'll just listen to him a second when you look at those
00:36:10.500
numbers what's going through your mind i think we're seeing the death of two-party politics in
00:36:16.060
real time um the conservatives and labor you know not even holding on to half of the seats
00:36:24.420
And I guess, you know, the way I'd sum it up is
00:36:26.720
what you're seeing from the electorate is a rebellion
00:36:30.920
We've been doing focus groups right around the country
00:36:34.860
Very different areas, voters going in very different directions.
00:36:52.140
and it is very early day and that literally is the response that the conclusions i've come to
00:36:57.500
as well yeah i mean so it's it's true and he he didn't say anything wrong there but as i mentioned
00:37:03.420
a lot of the mainstream commentators are listening to analysis like that and saying oh that means
00:37:08.300
first pass the post is going to go no it's not it it just means that we're playing a game musical
00:37:13.180
chairs there were two chairs or two and a half chairs and we've got five or six people running
00:37:17.980
around the outside it's going to shake out yes that's what's going to happen and i think and
00:37:23.080
again the point i was making of don't mistake this as die hard loyalty to reform no because i don't
00:37:29.360
think this is like like he says there look this is a revolt against the status quo and the more
00:37:34.100
like the status quo you seem going into the future the less appealing i think you will remain
00:37:41.140
so as in in two years time if the party looks like a status quo party it may well be that
00:37:47.960
the people like well that's that's not actually what i'm looking for yeah reform should understand
00:37:51.980
that these votes are easy come easy go yeah so there are some interesting events that have come
00:37:57.300
out of this already uh for example the conservatives have gained westminster city council yes which was
00:38:02.980
uh labor for a long time obviously and that's again okay well that's some positive news for
00:38:09.120
the tory in a long time since the conservatives had westminster but i mean it just goes to show
00:38:13.540
when you when you when you squish out to you know from two and a half party system to a six party
00:38:19.280
system actually you can you could have a beating like the conservatives and yet still winning
00:38:24.320
places yeah everything is so smeared out yeah so people like yeah we're going to tear down those
00:38:28.620
banksy statues this is the colston statue being torn down in bristol obviously um but nobody
00:38:35.620
expected it to happen that's the thing yeah uh nobody none of the pollsters saw this coming
00:38:41.100
because like you said the the the political environment is so shattered it's actually
00:38:45.740
very difficult to make any kind of predictions on this yes because you just don't know this is the
00:38:52.160
one council in the country where they raise more from parking fines than they do for taxation
00:38:57.380
oh probably yeah they're no no doubt whatsoever millions um so this this is a like london is
00:39:03.600
actually quite an interesting place and it's actually all in play uh connor had an excellent
00:39:08.340
post here about um bexley uh conservatives have held most of bexley and out of london borough
00:39:13.640
that reform were hoping to flip ahead of the london mayoral elections in 2028 reform game
00:39:18.240
from labor in belvedere and northumberland heath and from the conservatives in craven and west
00:39:22.900
heath i grew up here both both bexley heath and sid cup high streets have declined in the last
00:39:27.440
five years the residents hate sadiq khan don't want any hmos and cut eula's cameras down so
00:39:32.600
often they've stopped putting them up reform didn't win here because their ground game was
00:39:36.040
week i received one leaflet posted in an envelope from central office even the greens were door
00:39:41.000
knocking and they don't have a hope in hell here i spoke to the guy manning the reform saw in
00:39:44.840
bexney heath high street nice enough but no enthusiasm uh maybe he was demoralized by tales
00:39:49.080
of infighting i've heard in the local branch leading up to election day lalia cunningham led
00:39:52.840
an eclectic group troop of multicultural canvases to deliver leaflets shoppers yeah i saw the uh
00:39:58.440
i mean literally they were shouting in indian uh vote reform they were literally shouting it in
00:40:04.040
indian so okie doke yeah um but bexley residents moved to their kent border to get away from london
00:40:09.720
and it's alienating demographics they barely like bordering erith abbey wood and thames mead as it is
00:40:14.600
many don't want to be a part of the greater london authority put plainly they want local english
00:40:18.680
candidates that's why the tories won the campaign materials were here's local english man and woman
00:40:23.640
vote for us keep parks clean and stop migrants moving in that and the fact that local mp lewis
00:40:28.600
french is well liked and things haven't gotten too bad here yet so some older residents don't
00:40:32.360
notice what's going on across the country i'm not saying the conservatives fare better in the
00:40:36.140
london moral race but reform is standing the wrong candidate and he has the wrong strategy for this
00:40:40.160
area cunningham just isn't who most bexley residents so i mean a couple of points there on
00:40:43.960
on the point of bexley itself bexley bromley it's it's one of those areas which is if you want to
00:40:50.200
get out of london but you can't because you still you still work in london you need to be able to get
00:40:54.880
a black cab into london you need to be able to get into the office relative you move to bexley
00:40:58.340
bromley somewhere like that so it's people who are in there are londoners but they don't want to be
00:41:03.340
this is the profile of a seat that reform should absolutely smash and what conor is pointing out
00:41:09.860
here is actually you've got to do the work yeah and it goes so much to your thing you keep pushing
00:41:16.500
this you know you keep doing the work in swindon you keep talking about setting up your local
00:41:21.020
restore branches around the country get people involved turn up and you might feel like a really
00:41:26.660
small cog in the machine but actually you've got to go out and leaflet half a dozen streets two
00:41:32.660
dozen five dozen streets whatever it is taken for granted and if you do the work it makes a
00:41:38.120
difference if you don't do the work you won't win so it just completely validates everything that
00:41:43.680
you've been doing lately with restore and also um representation really matters as connor points out
00:41:49.080
they just ran normal english people and said we're just gonna keep the place half decent
00:41:59.960
So the Boris waver candidates lost in Southampton.
00:42:05.760
Trichaeus Chitsika failed to win their council seats.
00:42:13.380
because you can actually look at the people involved.
00:42:23.420
misty calanthia delamoth burgess some norman aristocrat posh girl misty chlamydia baguette
0.98
00:42:32.180
absolutely destroyed that is the most green name i've ever heard yet exactly imagine how wide-eyed
00:42:41.000
and doe-eyed and you know like literally misty-eyed like she must be to trounce him nearly
00:42:47.040
three to one and okay yeah like sorry what are we doing here so all that time we spent making fun
00:42:56.040
of reform for for their for their candidates as usual we were doing them a favor yes and as usual
00:43:04.340
nigel frage came out and attacked us oh i don't like these attacks on our can yeah because they're
00:43:09.120
losing candidates and we tried to tell you is and you double down on it you pratt here's
0.99
00:43:14.480
tricaceous chit seeker uh who lost to phil webb
0.90
00:43:19.780
ladies and gentlemen your based nationalist party or at least pretending to be uh fielded
0.61
00:43:31.300
treacle chit slapper and was beaten by phil webb and david fuller like again the most normie
00:43:39.320
english names possible completely trounced the reform candidate but how predictable yeah we
00:43:45.400
told you not to why could you not see this nigel roger how how how have you been what you must have
00:43:52.380
been so soaked in post-war liberal ideology for 50 60 years you literally cannot see reality at
0.99
00:43:59.580
this point yeah i mean people would rather vote for the posh girl with four ridiculous names
0.96
00:44:04.760
one of which is chlamydia than for someone from who's literally from zimbabwe and you and you
0.96
00:44:10.880
give them phil webb and they're like yep yeah fine well i don't i don't care what party he's in
00:44:14.520
i'm voting for phil webb again the the same thing happened in uh portsmouth when they put up again
00:44:20.360
the literal boris waver on a student visa uh he lost two uh mo adi mo as a dazzerman right and
00:44:28.640
thing is i know portsmouth you should absolutely crush it in portsmouth yeah i know good god i
00:44:36.420
mean portsmouth is a weird weird place in many ways i mean for a start the average pompeian has
00:44:42.360
a greater linear frontage of motorcar than they do of house so that's why the lib dems want it
00:44:46.560
yes so parking is almost impossible in portsmouth but the other thing about portsmouth right is
00:44:50.940
because they're so squished in and it's such like a little microcosm they don't really have common
00:44:55.700
people and posh people they're just like this mongrel people these kind of merged into one
00:45:00.320
and they all live right next to each other and it's it's not obvious what's what right but what
00:45:05.800
they are is a hundred percent common sense englishmen well apart from the ones who aren't
00:45:10.660
english right so i spent a lot of time there because when we had covid going on winchester
0.98
00:45:15.460
was bloody insufferable whereas in portsmouth they're like yeah we're not doing this shit
00:45:19.460
yeah these people see through it so i'm surprised that reform did not do stronger there but maybe
0.98
00:45:24.820
it's just a candidate thing it must be because i mean literally this is the central south sea ward
00:45:29.380
adi as a duzerman reform got 661 votes uh beating the conservatives don't get me wrong
00:45:37.140
but um losing to labor and the greens but primarily losing to kate dorrington the most
00:45:44.780
english name we've heard so far she sounds like a pirates of the caribbean character yes like come
0.98
00:45:49.500
on and he she absolutely again from a three to one ratio crushed you she sounds like she runs
00:45:55.200
a tea shop yes yes she does a lovely little english cafe um so yeah and but this this is
00:46:03.560
enough to uh make sure that lib dems hold the council uh look the thing is right reform in
00:46:09.220
total 2 000 votes like on this one like just like it's everywhere it's if you if you look at the at
00:46:14.920
the wards where reform ran an englishman they did quite well they won them yeah i think i think it
00:46:22.720
might have been on the previous tab actually though yeah there you go if you click into that
00:46:26.620
second bit yeah so so look um reform did win in portsmouth for sam copeland with carl with oh
00:46:35.880
that one's a bit funny um lamentable louise fudge mara louise fudge again like that's english then
00:46:41.940
yeah russell peter william simpson i mean he was taking no chances he gave us four english names
00:46:48.720
and of course he won joe yeah who didn't win oh um zikazawi or whatever i'm you know i mean in the
00:46:58.240
lib dems defense here abdul kadir did win uh for the lib dems in that oh they got one they got one
00:47:03.900
i mean but even put but yeah that's but there's quite a lot to suggest that this was not a good
00:47:08.880
idea uh anyway right so uh so far no gains at all for labor so they didn't win anything
00:47:16.000
uh they managed to defend even the conservatives won a whole council yeah they didn't win anything
00:47:22.520
they defended a few things labor haven't won a single seat let alone again what gained a single
00:47:29.240
seat they've retained some yeah um absolute bloodbath for labor absolutely i mean this
00:47:35.880
couldn't have been more brutal uh really and again going back they defended about 55 percent
00:47:42.360
but they lost about 45 percent and they won nothing so yeah it's hard to get worse than
00:47:49.020
that really i mean yeah i mean it genuinely is uh we go to the labor live reaction from a senior
00:47:55.940
labor source i'm not going to read it out because it's just it's beep beep uh he he has basically
00:48:03.540
said everything that we've said this this show except in a slightly more concise form yes yes
00:48:08.620
um a senior labor source effing effed for those who are listening yeah it's it it just couldn't
00:48:14.440
be worse yes uh and as the bbc uh pointed out there's oh they've changed the bloody thing i
00:48:20.360
thought i'd link to it um starmer kept coming up on the doorstep right starmer kept um coming up
00:48:26.440
uh over and over and over where people like no i just hate keir starmer um i don't want to vote
00:48:31.400
for him and or his party which is not a great surprise because we everyone's well aware of how
00:48:38.200
the public bet that's not the word the actual words they used on the doorstep probably not
00:48:42.080
word for word yeah um but uh so anyway ed milliband has privately told kistarman now you should
00:48:47.600
really set out the timeline for your resume that's a reasonably big intervention he's a former leader
00:48:52.520
yeah he's well respected in the party uh probably won't be him because he's already had a go and
00:48:57.580
he's failed but that is that really that's a big as an intervention as you can get in the Labour
00:49:03.980
Party I don't think there's anyone else who really ranks above him on the oh if they're saying yeah
00:49:09.460
grandees it's him or David Lammy really so it's him then yeah it's him yeah like but but the point
00:49:16.660
is Ed Miliband is as you say like you know a genuine influence in the parliamentary Labour
00:49:22.400
party at the moment and apparently has uh told skier look you you've you've got to you've got
00:49:27.180
to get out of here but yeah you think destroying us uh what do you think kia starmer's response
00:49:32.020
has been um a thousand years of of starmer managerial decline ahead that's exactly it
00:49:40.040
oh really oh right there we go right i'm not going to walk away and plunge the country into chaos
00:49:46.020
we were elected to deal with these challenges and that's what we will do has ed milliband asked you
00:49:52.160
set out a timetable for your departure? Well I think Ed Miliband has dealt with
00:49:56.720
this and made absolutely clear that he supports me. What do you say to those in
00:50:00.740
your party that are really upset with you, they don't think you're getting it
00:50:04.940
and they're calling for your resignation, what do you say to Woodbury
00:50:07.920
Challengers and the party? What's your message? I think it's very important that
00:50:12.500
we don't sugarcoat these results so I'm not going to do that. They are tough
00:50:16.940
results i accept that they reflect voters who don't feel that their lives have changed enough
00:50:27.460
or quickly enough and that's been going on for a long time we were elected to deal with that
00:50:31.920
and i'm not going to walk away from that responsibility and plunge the country into
00:50:36.940
chaos you already have mate amazing isn't it well and by the way for 40k fans we are living in the
00:50:43.700
40k timeline that man is a psychic blank he has no he has no soul he has no personality no soul
00:50:52.180
it's so kind of hard to insult him because no no no no hang on what are you what are you talking
00:51:02.020
about like i mean like for example like the burnside is great this is a great tweet the
00:51:07.720
british people are sending us a message we're listening they want us to go further and faster
00:51:11.360
which is why we're rolling out breakfast clubs to workplaces,
00:51:14.080
speeding up asylum approvals, building more mosques than ever.
0.84
00:51:17.000
I mean, that's literally the message that Keir Starmer is putting out here.
00:51:32.820
which is why we push a nation-wide breakfast club
00:51:34.680
so people finally feel the change that Labour was elected to deliver.
00:51:41.360
at this point like you can imagine me in private just saying don't the british people understand
00:51:45.720
there is so much more decline to manage genuinely yes that is exactly what is happening with the
00:52:01.860
labor party now bad luck if you support labor or you're a member of the labor party something like
00:52:07.960
that right however as maven points out if you're on the right this is good news defeats britain's
00:52:15.440
first bane pm to get elected mass arrests of left-wing radicals wanting to stop the gaza
00:52:19.340
genocide cut migration by over two-thirds which is true by the way uh pass legislation to make
0.93
00:52:23.840
it harder to get citizenship strengthen the new left-wing party ran by a literal retard
0.97
00:52:27.100
um and i've said this about the greens they're they're a total cul-de-sac their upper limit is
0.99
00:52:32.080
about 20 at best and they're never going any further than that so you don't and that's why
00:52:36.260
i'm quite happy for them to become the new second party oh god please you know please i want zach
00:52:41.780
polanski in everyone's faces every day because the more exposure yeah exactly exactly the more
00:52:47.720
exposure you have to zach polanski's ugly mug the more people are like i'm just sick of him just
00:52:52.440
sick of him you know so uh i think i know what i'm going to tweet after this it's something along
00:52:57.140
the lines of imagine you are keir starmer and you've just won the general election right and
00:53:03.100
your mission is to get to here in only two years do you genuinely think that if you were trying to
00:53:10.880
sabotage the labor party you could have done as good a job as him well i i let me finish this
00:53:17.600
quickly you know don't do a single thing your voters want to do destroy the labor party electorally
00:53:21.400
give the new right-wing party the best results ever say i take responsibility and this strengthens
00:53:25.700
my resolve yeah if keir starmer was a sleeper agent designed to destroy the labor party what
00:53:31.280
would he do exactly i don't think with all of my political acumen and the genuine desire to
00:53:38.220
destroy the labor party i could have outperformed him you couldn't have made your hatred if you
00:53:44.960
had assembled all of the right-wing commentators you got the best of the best and you sat and we
00:53:50.720
were going to secretly pull the strings of kia starmer we couldn't have we couldn't have done
00:53:55.680
better than this no he's he's done a great job for us um so thank you mr starmer please hang on
00:54:02.540
until 2029 i want the labor party completely destroyed and then take over running the green
00:54:07.120
party if possible well and then jump ship to the tories mate you know anyway so that's that's uh
00:54:15.820
that's honestly all good stuff i'm happy i'm very happy with this set of elections
00:54:21.160
And so people are like, well, okay, what's happening in Great Yarmouth?
00:54:23.860
Now, we don't know, is the answer, because the count began apparently 11 p.m. today.
00:54:45.300
uh literally uh 350 was the estimate from uh i think it was sky news on new statesman or someone
00:54:51.560
like that uh activists had descended on great yarmouth and uh we've had lots again our you
00:54:57.180
know josh and bo and that were down there and they were just like yeah there were the great
00:55:01.280
yarmouth first signs everywhere that everyone about half the people we spoke to were just like
00:55:05.680
yeah definitely voting for they did the work they they did they did the work and so it looks like
00:55:16.380
and Rupert wants to win them all and it looks like they might
00:55:42.100
he's laughing because he doesn't go on sentiment yeah he he actually thinks about this stuff he's
00:55:48.100
a smart guy yes you know you might not agree with him but on a personal level i do quite like him
00:55:52.820
and he's a smart guy and he knows that this is not correct he's not going to be on one percent
0.85
00:55:58.340
in great yarmouth and everyone laughing ha ha ha well i mean just before we came on air nigel
00:56:06.420
roger put out another tweet which he said the best is yet to come it's true and in the context
00:56:11.560
of restore i think he's right so anyway excellent uh entertainment frankly from the right uh from
00:56:19.860
these local elections as i said the results are still coming in and so the thing to look out for
00:56:23.680
now is what um the actual final result is in comparison to the predictions now if if this is
00:56:31.640
sort of like a mean prediction uh for reform and the upper limit is the upper end of predictions
00:56:36.840
is somewhere about a thousand eight hundred and fifty and the lower limit is somewhere around a
00:56:41.240
thousand three hundred uh if they end up with around a thousand three hundred then actually
00:56:46.760
that's them underperforming if they end up with around a thousand sort of seven hundred then
00:56:52.920
that's overperforming so the that's the thing to i think really take away from this when all the
00:56:58.100
results are finally in when given the scale of the labor collapse it'd be difficult for them
00:57:01.620
not to hit hit target well yeah but think about like like these are the average of the prediction
00:57:08.320
so far yes green 656 lib dems 152 well that's not what we saw and in the results coming in
00:57:14.960
actually the lib dems are far outpacing the greens so the lib dems are actually completely
00:57:21.700
overtaking the greens when it comes to what the actual prediction was so i mean the lib dems plus
00:57:27.780
and actually if you think about it the lib dems they they kind of they're kind of um the same
00:57:33.620
type of animal they feel the same environmental niche which is to say um you know we don't want
00:57:39.660
any of the establishment options um but we're not we don't really know who you want to vote for
00:57:45.520
yeah the the greens have the kind of sheen of craziness around them yeah but most people don't
00:57:51.600
know that yeah i think there's a i think there's a sense of it i think there is a you know a sense
00:57:56.400
of you know i don't know about them um so i think that the lib dems are going to overperform here
00:58:01.680
the greens are going to underperform i suspect that reform will probably get 1 400 is my sense
00:58:08.120
of it um they're doing well but i don't think they're going to smash it probably the over
00:58:13.520
performer is going to be the conservatives yeah and by that i mean just not lose as many seats
00:58:18.240
exactly they're not going to lose as much as people expected them to lose um but anyway so
00:58:22.400
But yeah, the local elections in Britain are normally not very exciting, but these ones
00:58:26.380
have been great, and we look forward to the final tally.