The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - Nigel Farage Admits He Has Failed

00:00:00.000 Hi folks, welcome back to another one of our political chats in which I get to say Dan and I were right over and over and over.

00:00:07.760 Obviously.

00:00:09.920 And I'm sorry if you're a reform voter, but we told you that this was happening.

00:00:15.300 Well, we told you why it was happening. We're telling you how to stop it happening.

00:00:19.540 We're telling you to take the right corrective measures and rather than listen to anything that we've ever said, just attacked us.

00:00:26.520 Yes.

00:00:27.240 Farage has made a bunch of rods for his own back here.

00:00:29.860 Yeah, and it's not exactly like it's just our opinion.

00:00:33.520 I'm sure you're about to show us the polls.

00:00:35.460 Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, it's everyone's opinion.

00:00:37.740 Well, in fact, let's have a look at the poll of polls.

00:00:40.600 Here's Politico.

00:00:41.420 This is from the 23rd of October, so it's about three days out of date, which isn't too bad.

00:00:47.000 And as you can see, Labour continues to slowly and steadily climb.

00:00:51.580 The Conservatives have had a bit of a bounce because the media has, for the past couple of weeks,

00:00:55.320 been promoting the Conservatives relentlessly

00:00:58.960 as an alternative to Nigel Farage.

00:01:01.600 They've converged on 21%

00:01:03.920 and Restore Britain is still choking away at 3%,

00:01:06.740 and the rest is pretty much the same.

00:01:09.340 Here's another poll of polls from electionmaps.uk.

00:01:15.180 Pretty similar thing,

00:01:16.720 although they have reformed slightly above the Conservatives,

00:01:20.560 but either way, it's not great, right?

00:01:23.200 What a trajectory.

00:01:23.980 he went straight up i mean the conservatives handed it to him yeah they gave they gave us

00:01:31.120 they gave us a government which was more left-wing than any previous labor government had been they

00:01:36.300 ran taxes up to record levels they ran immigration up to record levels it was a wide open field and

00:01:42.440 he just went soaring and the first thing he did when he reached the top of that parabolic arc

00:01:47.020 was to start reassuring us that he's not right-wing yeah it was just so that's that's exactly

00:01:52.720 it he started salami slicing his own coalition to the right but no i don't need you i don't need you

00:01:58.060 i don't need you i don't need you and now he's back on par with the conservatives it's not great

00:02:03.860 as long as i mean i don't i don't mind him saying he doesn't need us as long as he sticks to that

00:02:07.260 line i guess will he stick to the line that actually no we don't need you people no we've

00:02:13.800 we'll we'll get to all of this right so this is uh what it would look like mapped out it's pretty

00:02:20.100 abominable as you can see it's a conservative return in england uh in the southwest it's still

00:02:26.600 lib dem there's a few um midland and northern seats that go reform but otherwise the actual

00:02:33.520 north uh goes to labor and that map was almost all turquoise all turquoise yeah just a year ago

00:02:40.320 right all decisions before he took in the tory defectors before he kicked out rupert low he

00:02:46.820 decided no this it's going to be turquoise forever and nothing i will do will ever change that

00:02:52.020 and look where we are now i've assembled a bunch of voters who think that i'm a genuinely right

00:02:58.420 wing leader to replace the center right and no he all he wanted to do is i mean and the reason that

00:03:07.100 you know i was supporting probably the reason you were supporting him a year ago is because we'd

00:03:10.800 seen the failures of the conservative parties and we anything other than the tories yeah right i

00:03:15.120 didn't have great hopes in niger france but i mean at least he looked like he'd be normally right

00:03:19.280 wing yeah and at least it was something that wasn't labor or conservative and and the thing

00:03:23.360 that i absolutely didn't want is i didn't want the conservative party except run by him yeah i wanted

00:03:29.080 to get rid of all of that i wanted i wanted something new but but yeah as as you pointed out

00:03:35.400 like and we've said this many many times right every every failure on this side on on in reform

00:03:44.080 is a failure of choice by farage and he began in every way in the position of strength remember

00:03:51.000 uh we covered it a few weeks uh well probably about a month or two ago remember back in 2024

00:03:55.980 he's like we will not have any tory poison in our party he had rupert lowe as an mp he had

00:04:02.620 the right with nowhere else to go he'd he'd successfully stitched that up and instead of

00:04:08.400 being collegial yeah which is what he should have been and literally saying no all of you

00:04:13.680 you're all my men now you're all coming in we're all going to go forward as a united front

00:04:18.620 and 30 plus percent in the polls which would have been an overwhelming victory of government

00:04:24.640 faraj decided no i don't need rupert lowe no i don't need the alternative media no i don't need

00:04:29.220 this i don't need that i don't need the other actually i want some kind of weird sort of

00:04:34.140 center-right libtard purity where it's like no i i'm not gonna i'm not i'm not a racist we're 0.62

00:04:39.500 gonna make sure all the racists are kicked out we're gonna make sure this we're gonna make sure

00:04:42.520 that and eventually the liberal media will stop calling me a Nazi well I mean I remember politics

00:04:47.760 20 years ago um when Nick Griffin was was kind of a lot more on the scene now to my shame I didn't

00:04:54.440 support him at the time because I just thought well who's this guy coming out making these weird

00:04:58.520 allegations but Nick Griffin got absolutely buried he actually went to jail for saying that Pakistani

00:05:03.520 men are raping children on a large scale and Nigel Farage will often tell us that his proudest 0.82

00:05:09.520 political achievement is destroying 0.96

00:05:11.300 Nick Griffin's career.

00:05:13.660 I'm not saying you have to be a supporter of the

00:05:15.580 MP or anything like that. I probably wouldn't

00:05:17.440 support the BMP myself. No, but what I'm saying

00:05:19.520 is what would have happened in this country if

00:05:21.380 20 years ago we had taken that seriously?

00:05:24.200 Yeah. What if

00:05:25.580 Nigel Farage, he didn't

00:05:27.220 need to back him, like you say. All he could have done

00:05:29.560 is say, okay, is there anything there?

00:05:31.520 Is there any truth to this?

00:05:34.440 Same with

00:05:35.520 everybody on the right. 0.96

00:05:37.300 he just goes after them and destroys them

00:05:39.880 it doesn't matter if what they're saying is true

00:05:41.900 and I just think what if 20 years ago

00:05:44.120 we had tackled the grooming

00:05:46.020 gang issue then, how many

00:05:47.860 thousands, I mean you've read the grooming gang's report

00:05:50.180 it's horrific, how many

00:05:52.060 lives would have been saved

00:05:53.640 if we had taken it seriously then

00:05:55.640 so for over 20 years, Farage

00:05:57.920 has been doing this, he has been, I'm the

00:06:00.040 guy who's going to destroy one right

00:06:02.080 wing career after another

00:06:03.500 quite often in his own party

00:06:05.240 yep but but just he he going all the way back to the late 90s yeah someone like kilroy silk

00:06:10.840 he's just a bazooka on the right trying to take out as many people as possible and and we've got

00:06:15.920 to the point where there's now so many people outside the tent that he's lost the right but

00:06:22.260 also he tried to do it to the wrong man because you'll notice that in norfolk there there's a

00:06:27.980 very dark blue spot that's rupert lowe's seat everyone concedes he'll probably win again

00:06:33.400 come a next generation he'll probably win there uh and given how things stand at the moment

00:06:39.620 that was all nigel frarges to lose he made all of these decisions no one made him made any

00:06:45.420 decisions there was absolutely no pressure at all they're not they're not they're not um forced

00:06:51.380 errors they're unforced errors every single one of them completely like why why take in these

00:06:56.600 tories why take nadine dorries and nadine zahawi why take robert jenry why take the smaller brave

00:07:00.880 like you you didn't have to do that you were way ahead in the polls and they jumped ship because

00:07:07.580 you were way ahead in the polls because they thought right that's a life raft i can cling to

00:07:12.140 that you should have just said sorry no tory ministers who did forest waves to our country

00:07:17.340 that would have just been a simple rule that would have been easy to stick by okay rupert

00:07:23.500 lowe said something right wing well okay we're the right wing party in britain we can't just in

00:07:29.040 the same way that jeremy corbyn was constantly saying communist things in the labor party and

00:07:33.420 it took until keir starmer to kick him out like yeah you don't kick out the left of the labor

00:07:39.540 party because of course that's a part of the coalition of the labor party this was why keir

00:07:44.280 starmer tanked the labor party i think i think he might have got away with it if it was just

00:07:49.360 suella braveman and robert jenwick if he'd stopped there he might have got away with it because then

00:07:53.160 then he would have a series of generals beneath him he would have had rupert lowe appealing to

00:07:57.700 the real right he would have had um richard tice appealing to the wets he would have had robert

00:08:02.680 jenryk appealing to the former tories he he would have had a lot of bases covered at that point he

00:08:06.660 would but no he he can't stand not being the most right-wing person in in reform and he's not

00:08:13.340 particularly right-wing yes and then and so and like i said he couldn't be collegial about things

00:08:17.840 he never had any time for the online right he never had any time for the alternative media

00:08:22.000 he never had any time for anything else other than a very narrow constituency frankly a

00:08:27.600 boomers yes of retirees and it's like okay but that's that that isn't a coalition right that's

00:08:33.080 not a coalition so anyway this is uh the latest you gov poll um it's looking pretty good for us

00:08:40.300 at four percent that's not bad it's looking great for labor it's even looking good for the

00:08:45.180 conservatives reform are down to if you were to take an extremely expansive view of the right what

00:08:51.540 what what reform is trying to do which is unite anything that is even vaguely right even if it's

00:08:56.900 was it trying to do that was it trying to do that well if it was i should have been doing that i

00:09:03.700 just make the point that the nominal right is actually a winning coalition here yes by far

00:09:10.160 i mean if if we were to take um the regardless of what we think of the conservatives or reformer

00:09:17.300 whoever else and we assume those voters think these things are right wing well yeah you've got

00:09:24.260 46 percent of britain there is trying to vote for the right and only what 37 i'm not going to include

00:09:32.760 the lib dems because i think the lib dems shatters into left and right quite evenly actually um but

00:09:38.180 you've only got 37 percent really there's essentially two games you can play in politics

00:09:41.620 there's the one i'm going to stick to what i want and i'm going to try and achieve that the other

00:09:45.820 one is okay i'm i'm going to delegate what i actually want into a broader coalition and then

00:09:50.980 argue within that coalition yes and actually the the argument worth having is within the coalition

00:09:55.340 he could have done that yes yeah and you just say no to your radicals tony bled's constantly yeah

00:10:02.080 well jeremy corbyn says a lot of things i don't care you just say no to your radicals that's it

00:10:07.460 they don't and he could have done that with rupert low you give them some of what they want yes when

00:10:11.960 they ask for insane radical things you say no i'm not gonna do that yeah you know you're gonna get

00:10:15.220 30 and no more the the big problem is is a lot of people are looking at the insane radical things

00:10:19.820 that Rupert Lowe has been asking for,

00:10:21.240 such as deporting the families of the grooming gangs,

00:10:23.200 and they think, hang on, why can't we do that?

00:10:25.500 Is that even radical?

00:10:26.720 Yeah.

00:10:27.580 Anyway, so, reform have been out campaigning,

00:10:30.820 and Robert Jemmerich has been out campaigning as hard as he can

00:10:33.500 because things aren't looking great.

00:10:36.600 I mean, the fact that reform is now beneath the Conservatives

00:10:39.920 because there has been a massive, coordinated establishment jihad

00:10:44.780 to stomp on reform

00:10:47.720 and put the Conservatives back

00:10:49.220 into their proper place as the second party

00:10:51.840 of Britain

00:10:52.340 in their minds

00:10:54.680 this has been bad

00:10:57.160 and so anyway, Jermic was just like

00:10:59.260 out campaigning in some event in Plymouth

00:11:01.480 and he said this

00:11:03.380 if you're a person that works, stand up

00:11:05.040 if you run a

00:11:07.500 half the audience don't stand up

00:11:09.980 right

00:11:10.260 a couple there but none

00:11:12.900 A bit less than half stand-up.

00:11:14.280 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:11:15.320 Less than half of them stand-up.

00:11:16.520 And that tells you everything about the coalition that reform.

00:11:18.480 And looking at some of those people who stand-up,

00:11:20.080 I severely doubt they do work.

00:11:21.880 He probably misheard, because they're a bit old,

00:11:23.600 they probably just misheard the question,

00:11:24.900 have you ever worked or something?

00:11:26.460 Yeah, or like, yeah, stand-up if you work.

00:11:28.520 Well, I'm 64 and I'm retiring next year.

00:11:31.340 Technically, yeah, I work.

00:11:32.980 But this is the point.

00:11:34.840 Every reform is an event like this. 1.00

00:11:36.560 It's just a collection of very old people. 1.00

00:11:39.400 Silver hair. 1.00

00:11:40.060 There's a lot of silver hair in there.

00:11:41.420 but the energy has gone out of it and that's now that's that's interesting right you say that

00:11:46.220 because uh this is the press conference he did yesterday in anticipation leading up to the

00:11:51.220 budget and as this journalist pointed out i've never seen a press conference quite this empty

00:11:55.980 so aren't you having to come out to speak to three people uh well probably a couple on the

00:12:11.260 back behind yeah there's there's probably like 30 people in there 40 people something like that

00:12:15.940 again there was a there was a time not so long ago he was packing stadiums yeah if you if you 0.82

00:12:22.340 heard that nigel farage was coming to your town you'd make an effort to go and be there whereas 0.99

00:12:26.200 now it's just like oh yeah well it's it's it's it's the triple lot vote even even at the back 1.00

00:12:34.080 here it's not even full the the most important seats are the ones behind the behind the camera

00:12:40.380 a shot and they couldn't even fill those mad isn't it absolutely mad now um nigel farage did

00:12:46.760 the collegial leaderly thing and blamed it on his staff for this whole well staff incompetence

00:12:53.400 it's all well and good advertising the businesses but on mondays people who run businesses tend to

00:12:59.180 be rather busy okay but they're not your voters anyway your voters are never busy but the that's

00:13:08.820 that's terrible leadership why is it so empty staff incompetence can you imagine if i ever said

00:13:14.320 you know to somebody like oh why why isn't this lotus event lotus eaters event very very full

00:13:19.960 and i said staff incompetence yeah i'd never say it yeah i would never say i mean even if it was

00:13:26.480 even if it was i wouldn't say it yeah yeah but it's what an awful thing to say about the people

00:13:32.260 who work for him yeah and he's probably got a bunch of young staffers as well who are paid

00:13:37.760 next to nothing yeah yeah who was spinning their wheels from and then they have to hear him go up

00:13:42.920 on stage and say that you're incompetent yeah it's terrible absolutely terrible leadership

00:13:47.620 and so anyway the event itself i mean he apparently looked quite bored uh in fact

00:13:55.760 apparently he looked quite bored during during generic speech part of me you know what can't

00:14:00.520 even be bothered to watch the budget on wednesday i think i'll watch cash in the attic instead the

00:14:07.760 That is very much like an in-the-thick-of-it sketch.

00:14:10.880 It's incredible, isn't it?

00:14:12.060 Yeah.

00:14:12.520 It's absolutely incredible.

00:14:13.780 I don't know why he thought he couldn't be seen.

00:14:17.840 Why would you not look like you're engaged?

00:14:22.640 Journalists are going to notice you.

00:14:24.000 You're the leader of the party.

00:14:25.060 Yes.

00:14:25.620 And they all hate you.

00:14:27.460 And they're going to seize on any opportunity to make you look bad.

00:14:30.620 And that's what they accomplished here,

00:14:32.340 because you gave them the opportunity.

00:14:33.820 um in all fairness right jenrik's speech was actually not bad i'm not gonna play any of it

00:14:41.580 but i'm just gonna get it up so you can see it but um in all fairness his speech actually uh this

00:14:47.800 from the q a his speech actually wasn't bad the problem is jenrik is not a very good speaker

00:14:51.940 no he's not got a very engaging voice he's got very engaged cadence uh you don't want to listen

00:14:58.380 to jenrik speak he's not like george galloway or something no he's a fairly competent politician

00:15:02.600 I mean, he could have been leader of the Conservative Party if he'd stuck around.

00:15:07.880 Dominic Cummings, what low standards that is.

00:15:10.180 But anyway, he's not an engaging, charismatic speaker, right?

00:15:14.780 No, you can't carry a room with him.

00:15:16.960 No, no.

00:15:18.040 But the things that he was saying were all fine.

00:15:21.900 They were all, like, because he's specifically speaking about the economy,

00:15:26.140 almost everyone could agree with almost all of it, right?

00:15:29.180 Everyone on the right could have agreed with all of it.

00:15:30.840 because it's what we've all been saying forever. 1.00

00:15:33.740 Stop giving foreigners money.

00:15:34.880 Stop giving huge amounts of benefits. 0.94

00:15:36.280 Stop taxing so much.

00:15:37.220 Stop taxing so much.

00:15:38.100 Stop sending foreign aid.

00:15:40.840 It's all actually quite stock in trade for right-wingers at this point,

00:15:44.800 because everyone on the right has triangulated on what the problems are

00:15:47.980 and what needs to be done.

00:15:49.900 The state is way bigger than it should be,

00:15:52.220 and the taxes are way higher than they need to be

00:15:54.960 if you want to get any kind of economic growth.

00:15:56.800 Yeah, well, the message is consistent.

00:15:58.520 we need to cut taxes and cut spending but not the triple lock obviously that is true that is that is

00:16:03.780 not his concern um but anyway it's all stock right wing stuff right but jenrik isn't a great speaker

00:16:11.780 so it's not like there's any particularly powerful cut through in the way that he's talking um but

00:16:16.640 like i said it was fine it was pretty good i would agree with like 99 of it there are a couple of

00:16:23.120 where i think he didn't go too far enough but what are you gonna do you know in a normal

00:16:28.400 political environment this would have been a perfectly fine speech anyway so let's go back

00:16:33.460 to the polls because um these polls are looking rough right and these are only from a week ago

00:16:40.860 right they're down to minus three to twenty percent on this one they're twenty percent

00:16:46.080 find out now and ipsos again perfectly reputable pollsters they're on twenty percent on you gov

00:16:51.420 this i don't mean to sound like a broken record but from we just it wasn't that long ago he had

00:16:58.220 a commanding lead and that and now he's and now he's slipped into third place and it doesn't look

00:17:03.660 like the descent is over yeah but how how are they staunching the bleeding right how are they the

00:17:08.980 wound is open the blood is pouring out okay what are you doing are you going to reverse any of the

00:17:13.540 bad decisions that got you to this point i doubt it if anything he's probably just going to double

00:17:18.700 down on what the thing is they haven't been as we we talked about last time they've been tacking

00:17:24.980 more explicitly to the right but that then looks like a show of weakness right that wasn't your

00:17:30.760 position well it also looks like insincerity because yes because when he when they say this

00:17:35.820 stuff now i i don't believe any of it no so so i mean they've been banding around the term mass

00:17:40.980 deportations i thought oh they're doing a bit of mass they want to do a bit master deportations

00:17:45.380 well i don't want my name attached to it was the original perspective right and it was only because

00:17:50.640 and this is what i said last time like the the problem that farage has and the reform have is a

00:17:55.580 credibility gap right because everyone when when reform says oh we're going to do this thing that

00:18:02.240 we weren't going to do a year ago but now we're definitely going to do it everyone thinks is he

00:18:05.360 really going to do it but when you look at that it turns out it's just what they were already 0.94

00:18:08.460 planning to do get rid of the illegals yeah um but they've just renamed what they were going to 0.96

00:18:13.120 do anyway okay so it's not mass deportations then is it you're not getting rid of the boys wave 0.90

00:18:16.780 you're not getting rid of um the grooming gangs or anything like that i mean it's it's all the

00:18:21.400 same thing they're just using more firm rhetoric but this is what i mean about the credibility gap

00:18:25.440 it's like they'll they'll say oh we're definitely going to do all this stuff that we said we weren't

00:18:28.580 going to do a year ago guys everyone's like are they really going to do that whereas when rupert

00:18:32.780 lowe says it they're not like oh god is he really going to do that yeah it's like you you know that

00:18:37.140 he wants to do that right there's no credibility gap between rupert lowe being like i want to

00:18:42.500 deport millions of people and destroy the state you don't sit you don't sit there puzzling it

00:18:47.960 when he says he wants to put child rapist to death you don't sit there thinking what does 0.99

00:18:52.180 he really mean by that he's like no it's he wants to put child rapist to death he's like yeah exactly 0.97

00:18:58.780 rupert lowe says a thing that's what he meant you believe that he genuinely wants to do the 0.70

00:19:03.920 thing to say whereas we know nigel fryer doesn't want to do the thing i mean this is the thing i've

00:19:08.020 been thinking for a while is reform is increasingly feminine coded i mean with a man if he says

00:19:13.260 something that's what he meant to say with a woman of course if she says something god knows

00:19:18.080 what she actually is what message she's trying to get you to take away from it but it doesn't

00:19:22.320 just manifest there it also manifests in the um the blaming and the and the hysterics about you

00:19:29.760 know why don't you come back to me and um you know there must be something wrong with you we'll come

00:19:36.460 to the social shaming aspect of it right um anyway so like i said i i've been predicting

00:19:42.920 for a long time that this is going to be a continuous decline now because reform have

00:19:47.120 chosen their constituency and actually that constituency not only is not that big but it

00:19:52.340 also has another option right so the conservatives are also a boomer party yes the conservatives

00:19:59.720 their main constituency is also the boomers and the pensions so just put us on the spot i mean

00:20:05.580 What is the difference between reform and Conservatives?

00:20:11.960 Policy-wise.

00:20:18.700 Yeah.

00:20:20.020 Maybe I'll run it through Grok.

00:20:23.940 You'll have to find some very fine differences.

00:20:27.120 I'm not sure what there is.

00:20:32.540 I'm...

00:20:33.220 When this comes out, I'll check the comments.

00:20:35.580 to see if anybody can think of something but i mean they must be basically the same yes they

00:20:40.560 are basically the same anyway so the point being if you're basically the same as the traditional

00:20:46.740 right-wing party now because you took in a load of tories uh and you yourself is you were basically

00:20:52.260 on that plantation anyway well there's no particular reason to stay with you especially

00:20:59.200 if the establishment is all like yeah no the tories are back guys if you want if you want like

00:21:06.460 colorblind globalism in british aesthetics actually you want the tories now you know

00:21:13.860 that's that's the one you want to go for and so they've they've been getting people

00:21:17.960 slowly but surely off the reform plantation and onto the tory plantation so okay well how do you

00:21:24.040 stem the bleeding well nigel france doesn't know he hasn't got a way of stemming because all he

00:21:28.040 wants to do is is the conservative party except run by him yes i mean don't get me wrong it was

00:21:34.020 the mistake of the conservatives to leave him out of the conservative party right when brexit

00:21:39.380 happened they should have just made him a conservative lord yeah immediately obviously

00:21:43.260 right yeah and give him a good one give him a bloody dukedom or something and then you would

00:21:47.440 have had him then he would have turned into dan hannon yes he would have been a character that

00:21:51.500 popped up and wrote the odd article in the times but otherwise was muted he probably would have

00:21:56.440 been giving some banging speeches in the house of lords yes right so because what

00:22:01.040 nigel farage he's always had a position of insecurity right he was never an mp before

00:22:06.680 he was always you know a very powerful political figure on the outside of mainstream politics right

00:22:12.280 so if you had let him just sit in but he was always prepared to broach the the the tepid

00:22:18.260 version of the difficult subject right he was he he talked about woke back in like 2018 he talked

00:22:24.500 about the grooming gangs he talked about immigration right he would always do it inside the

00:22:28.500 Tory frame though so it would have been sensible to have put him in the House of Lords so he could

00:22:32.320 have been your right flank and allowed you to tackle some of the difficult issues without the

00:22:37.400 Labour Party berating you constantly right but instead you left him out and so now because he

00:22:42.400 loves status if you'd offered him a good enough oh yeah he would have gone for that I think even

00:22:47.040 if you have to even if you had to offer him a bloody hereditary earldom he you know I don't

00:22:52.060 think you would have had to i don't think you would have had to just any position yeah you know

00:22:55.520 a life baronet probably would have bloody done but yeah i agree uh anyway so um oh there's yeah

00:23:02.060 that's the final hour so um you gov has been uh polling people about what they think about

00:23:08.320 coalitions and whatnot i don't really care about the public's opinion about coalitions

00:23:12.120 um but the interesting part was who are the main parties now of course labor and the conservatives

00:23:17.600 still loom large in the minds of most people.

00:23:21.420 We can see the Conservatives have had a slight resurgence there

00:23:23.600 from 78 to 86.

00:23:26.200 But Reform, they peaked at 61% of people,

00:23:31.240 thinking they were a major party.

00:23:32.960 And as their vote share has declined,

00:23:35.740 you can see that people's opinions declined with it.

00:23:38.900 That is a major misfire at this stage.

00:23:41.900 Fewer than half the people.

00:23:42.980 I mean, you were, I can go back a year,

00:23:45.040 you were the commanding

00:23:47.060 party in the polls. It looked like

00:23:49.060 you were going to get 400%. And that line was going

00:23:50.940 straight up. 0.77

00:23:52.940 60% of people saying, yeah, of course they're a

00:23:54.980 major party. Of course they are.

00:23:57.180 And then in the space

00:23:58.960 of not very long, people

00:24:00.700 are changing their minds and saying, okay,

00:24:02.880 actually, maybe this isn't a major party after all.

00:24:06.040 The Financial Times

00:24:07.120 did a series of focus groups about

00:24:09.080 this. About politics

00:24:10.900 in general, sorry.

00:24:13.120 About Andy Burnham, but we'll skip the

00:24:14.880 Andy Burnham stuff because it's not about him today um but the focus groups were chosen to

00:24:20.000 reflect labor swing voters um so attendees at a city center Sheffield hotel costume consume

00:24:26.360 politics like most Britons an activity taking place in their peripheral vision while they get

00:24:30.320 on with their lives questioned on whether Britain was going in the right direction on the wrong track

00:24:34.700 on the wrong direction every member of the groups uh opted for the latter so everyone thinks that

00:24:40.540 britain's going the wrong direction even under andy burnham yeah um comments for burnham range

00:24:45.900 from quote he's full of crap to quote he's all right quote he seems to be trying uh steven a 0.62

00:24:52.900 technician said i don't think he'll do what he's promised angela retiree says he's better than 0.98

00:24:57.420 starmer these are all pretty low bars right so the burnham bounce is yeah yeah it's those are

00:25:04.860 they bland comments it's like well it could be worse it's it's it's a shrug yeah yeah it's a it's

00:25:10.520 i don't hate him like i hated kirstama right i said this before andy burnham he's not going to

00:25:15.260 fix any of the problems but he's not a hateable figure he's not detestable right uh when asked

00:25:20.080 to describe how reform was doing words such as massive scandal badly disliked and struggling

00:25:27.720 were used you know this is in the the working class north in sheffield this is prime these

00:25:35.160 should be natural territory for reform exactly this this is this should be the kind of reform

00:25:41.720 heartland really as in oh yeah these are the disaffected white working class who want to 0.50

00:25:45.920 smash the system because it's destroying them that should be easy but if you're like yeah no 0.86

00:25:50.920 you're doing badly i don't like you and you're struggling because reform had incredible potential

00:25:54.560 to unite the whole kind of Tory-ish coalition

00:25:59.940 with the sort of sensible British, left-behind British worker,

00:26:04.700 the classic Labour voter.

00:26:06.600 Not the new Labour voter, but the classic Labour voter.

00:26:08.640 The socially conservative white working class.

00:26:10.360 Yes, yeah. 0.77

00:26:11.420 Who are patriotic and who actually want to do good for the country and themselves.

00:26:16.120 But anyway, they say, as its momentum has stalled,

00:26:19.480 Farage's right-wing populist party is adopting increasingly strident positions

00:26:22.980 on issues such as immigration but there are signs this might be backfiring jotting down on a piece

00:26:27.760 of paper what they would say to farage if they met him one person wrote calm down a bit and

00:26:31.580 another wrote turn it down didn't i say this last time didn't i say exactly this like it it stinks

00:26:37.740 of weakness because everyone knows they were not your positions your positions were actually

00:26:42.960 moderate right of center positions and tacking hard to the right makes it look like you've made

00:26:48.280 a series of mistakes you didn't have the courage of your own convictions and now you're just trying

00:26:54.420 to play catch-up sorry that's not gonna work it sounds like a man um being waterboarded after

00:27:01.040 after the after the blanket comes off and says what would you like to tell us and he's and he's

00:27:04.820 just making shit up at this point it's like yeah don't do it again exactly what do i think you want

00:27:09.440 to hear yes that's what it sounds like i'm just gonna say what do you what i think you want to 0.96

00:27:13.440 Yeah, not what I authentically believe.

00:27:15.140 He's a man who's saying many things, and only some of them might be true.

00:27:19.820 So what was really interesting about these Sheffield focus groups,

00:27:24.320 quote, Rupert Lowe, leader of the far-right Restore UK Party, 1.00

00:27:28.880 that's Restore Britain, not Restore UK, idiots, 0.98

00:27:32.440 was more widely recognised than Kemi Badenock, 0.99

00:27:35.680 the Conservative leader who remains an enigma to many voters.

00:27:38.800 Really?

00:27:39.340 Yeah.

00:27:39.840 Really, okay.

00:27:41.260 Isn't that interesting?

00:27:41.900 the right is very visible

00:27:43.600 and more Sheffield voters

00:27:45.960 knew who Rupert Lowe was than Kimmy Badenock

00:27:48.120 that is interesting

00:27:49.160 I wouldn't have thought but I suppose this is not the demographic

00:27:52.060 who get out the Tory graph every

00:27:54.000 morning or the Guardian

00:27:56.120 or whatever it is

00:27:57.020 they're on Facebook

00:27:58.880 that's exactly what they say

00:28:00.760 it's because he's a ubiquitous figure

00:28:03.920 on social media

00:28:04.620 they're getting it from Facebook

00:28:06.920 exactly right

00:28:08.260 and the establishment simply doesn't

00:28:11.740 understand the power of that and and again i keep coming back this is why lula wants to ban it he

00:28:15.560 understands and i keep coming back to this it's like brexit was the biggest political upset in

00:28:21.280 this country for 50 years easily and and i don't understand why nobody has understood this lesson

00:28:26.960 because dominic cummings got this straight away all all the opinion formers basically all the

00:28:31.240 people who already have an opinion they're on twitter yeah and they're doing this pvp thing

00:28:36.200 where they're clashing on it.

00:28:38.280 The voters are on Facebook.

00:28:40.460 So when Brexit came around,

00:28:42.400 Dominic Cummings barely touched,

00:28:44.860 or Twitter as it was back then,

00:28:46.520 he went straight to Facebook

00:28:47.840 and he was pumping out all of this stuff

00:28:51.020 all over Facebook.

00:28:52.760 And the journalist class were like,

00:28:54.220 well, I don't see anything from Vote Leave.

00:28:56.560 Where's the Vote Leave campaign?

00:28:57.780 Yeah, well, what's going on?

00:28:58.760 It's never on my feet.

00:28:59.340 Yeah, it's invisible.

00:29:00.640 But if you're on Facebook,

00:29:02.140 you're getting it all the time.

00:29:03.120 And that's where the voters were.

00:29:04.460 And that's what Rupert Lose did.

00:29:05.300 And they talk about his Twitter game, and it's good, but his Facebook game is twice as powerful.

00:29:09.360 Yes, and that's where the voters are.

00:29:11.700 Yeah, and it has cut through, as the Financial Times is finding.

00:29:16.560 But look at the position that the voters find themselves in, right?

00:29:21.180 And again, you can see from the pictures, this is mostly the white working class that they've spoken to in Sheffield, right?

00:29:26.380 so what what is fascinating about this is that a lot of them are going to be socially conservative

00:29:32.800 and therefore right-wing if not economically right-wing they're not economic rightists

00:29:37.440 but they'll be economically left and and socially right and socially very right i would imagine but

00:29:42.960 the question is of identity and patriotism they'll definitely fall on the right side of the

00:29:46.820 scale and about 20 to 30 percent of them will probably be reform supporters who are very aware

00:29:55.000 of Rupert Lowe and what's their opinion Farage is failing their opinions no they're doing badly

00:30:00.560 they're hit by scandals they're going down in the polls okay well when that pancakes as I think it

00:30:07.040 will when it gets to about 15 like I've said before I reckon Farage just says okay I'm out

00:30:11.120 I've failed I'm going yeah this is the third time that I've I've retired from politics and I'm going

00:30:15.460 to go back to my GB New Shore I'm going to move to America or whatever and and you've been saying

00:30:18.960 that 10 points ago I mean when when they first started to come off the boil they got down to

00:30:23.100 like 25 26 and that's when you started saying 15 is the magic number yeah and and that seemed like

00:30:28.260 a long way ago when you're at 20 it did didn't it when you're when you're at 20 it's getting pretty

00:30:33.920 close now and when the direction of travel has only been in one way yep and what's going to

00:30:38.560 happen if that happens well these people who know and they've got a positive opinion of rupert low

00:30:43.260 yeah right they they they just think they're thinking of this tactically right they're

00:30:48.640 thinking, okay, well, at the moment,

00:30:50.560 this is what we're using to try and advance what we want.

00:30:54.040 But when that disappears, well, where does this go?

00:30:57.320 And so that's what's happening with the British public

00:31:01.440 and the normal people.

00:31:04.160 BBC are just calling Nigel Farage a racist still

00:31:06.960 because the slimy used car salesman Raheem Kassam,

00:31:11.800 who lives in America, by the way,

00:31:13.640 is causing all sorts of trouble for him

00:31:15.480 by calling Kemi Bednock a Nigerian scammer.

00:31:18.640 i haven't watched this clip does he instantly respond by saying why should i care if somebody

00:31:25.760 calls me racist or or does he go turquoise you know you know or does he go turquoise and

00:31:32.920 immediately start pleading no no no i'm not racist do we watch it yes i wonder what you

00:31:38.920 make of comments this morning by a former chief of staff of yours rahim kasam who has spoken about

00:31:44.520 the Conservative Party leader, Kemi Badenoch,

00:31:46.940 calling her a Nigerian 0.93

00:31:48.760 scammer. 0.98

00:31:50.140 Do you think that's racist?

00:31:52.380 A, he's not a former chief of staff,

00:31:54.660 B, he's currently in America,

00:31:56.560 and C... He's a friend.

00:31:58.480 And C, he's Indian.

00:32:00.580 He's of Indian heritage.

00:32:02.140 Does that mean he can't be racist?

00:32:05.740 It's okay.

00:32:07.180 He's one of them too.

00:32:08.960 It's just...

00:32:10.060 It's so weak.

00:32:12.040 As you can see, this goes on for three and a half minutes,

00:32:14.520 and at no point

00:32:15.700 Nigel Farage

00:32:16.760 literally just says

00:32:17.660 I just don't want to talk about this

00:32:18.600 I just don't want to talk about this 1.00

00:32:19.340 he's an Indian

00:32:20.220 but he's

00:32:21.360 he's so captured

00:32:22.840 by the left wing

00:32:23.860 he's a right winger

00:32:26.460 with left wing assumptions

00:32:27.840 baked into the core

00:32:29.180 it's like

00:32:29.860 no no no

00:32:30.520 he's nothing to do with me

00:32:32.280 and he's not

00:32:32.900 he wasn't technically

00:32:33.740 a chief of staff

00:32:34.620 he was just

00:32:35.380 you know

00:32:35.880 yeah yeah

00:32:37.160 I have a technicality

00:32:38.280 or whatever

00:32:38.660 whatever it was

00:32:40.000 but no no

00:32:41.340 he's foreign

00:32:42.500 he's not white

00:32:43.180 so therefore

00:32:44.420 you're not allowed to call him a racist yes right that's exactly because racism is whatever it is

00:32:49.460 power plus privilege and only white people can it's like night or you see you're supposed to be

00:32:54.440 right wing yeah yeah and you know i mean we we know that uh what rupert lowe's response on that

00:32:59.920 question is because he used it with emily malice i don't care yeah i don't care i don't care what

00:33:04.400 that that's where you should have ended the conversation and and and things you could tell

00:33:08.600 that bbc presenter is enjoying it oh she's having a great time but what but what how did how did

00:33:14.020 Emily Maitlis respond when Rupert Lowe said

00:33:16.180 I don't care

00:33:17.120 look at his body language

00:33:19.920 and she's smirked 1.00

00:33:23.000 she's leaning in with predator eyes 1.00

00:33:25.740 she's fixed on her quarry 1.00

00:33:28.320 but you saw what happened to Emily Maitlis

00:33:30.620 when Rupert Lowe was like

00:33:32.160 I don't care

00:33:32.720 she was like what hang on I've said the magic word

00:33:36.320 and I haven't banished you

00:33:38.060 and so she just kept on saying it again

00:33:40.160 and then eventually started to realise that the magic word

00:33:42.480 wasn't working

00:33:43.200 and she didn't know what the hell to do and you can see her looking down at her notes it's like

00:33:48.240 i haven't got a backup i haven't prepared for this eventuality if the magic words doesn't work

00:33:53.900 yeah but like i said this this keeps on going on and you see how agitated he is and you can see

00:33:59.180 that she's just genuinely nervous laugh there yeah as you can see she she knows she's got him

00:34:04.340 on the hook she knows that by any standard this is racist and Nigel Farage is desperately squirming 0.93

00:34:09.920 to get out of it it's like it's pathetic three minutes before he before he called time on it 0.91

00:34:14.780 whereas who's racing who oh yeah god rupert would have knocked that out in five seconds

00:34:20.680 yeah don't care uh anyway so that's that's nigel farage how still having struggle sessions on the

00:34:25.920 bbc he's learned nothing right i mean the easiest thing to say i don't care and then if she kept 0.92

00:34:31.180 oppressing it's like yeah she's nigerian and she's scamming people what now like he literally just 0.96

00:34:36.420 Because, I mean, he does say, well, she is a scammer. 0.96

00:34:39.180 And she's like, well, are you saying she's a Nigerian scammer? 0.97

00:34:41.260 She is Nigerian. 1.00

00:34:42.980 Now what? 1.00

00:34:43.580 You know, obviously she's Nigerian. 1.00

00:34:45.280 And if, I mean, I don't think she's a scammer.

00:34:47.420 The thing is, he doesn't consider her to be Nigerian

00:34:50.500 because she lived in the country for five years.

00:34:52.440 She's an anchor baby.

00:34:53.140 We know what his definition is.

00:34:55.000 You are a native to this land if you've lived here for five years.

00:34:58.960 Yeah.

00:34:59.240 So, you know, Kemi Bainok's children who have Nigerian lineage

00:35:04.580 and scottish lineage are therefore english yes we know exactly how he feels about this

00:35:10.560 anyway so this was the most remarkable thing that happened today uh nigel farage has conceded

00:35:18.480 that actually things are going badly now we've been saying this for a long time and he has quote

00:35:25.420 urged restore voters to come back to us in the face of the poll drop because they're worried

00:35:31.240 about a snap election now the the chatter is that burnham will call a snap election on the i think

00:35:36.400 was 11th of december so he's certainly going to see how the budget goes down first yeah it ain't

00:35:40.900 going to go down well it's just going to be a bunch of tax rises well i mean he can kick it

00:35:44.980 into the i mean the bond the the bond sellers have not revolted yet so he might think that

00:35:50.660 he can do a nothing budget and basically just leave the leave the deficit hanging so maybe he

00:35:55.240 does that yeah well that well that's his best option right because burnham isn't going to do

00:35:58.600 anything of substance ever um can we watch the clip apparently i'll try refreshing it's having

00:36:04.680 a bit of a think yeah yeah but again again this you know come back to us it's like yeah but you

00:36:11.040 kicked us you told us that you we were not welcome yes and that's that's the the main problem and

00:36:17.620 and then we offered you a bloody pact and you said no you said no to that you wouldn't be ready for

00:36:23.920 that, would you? And if it came to that, would there have to be a deal with the Tories?

00:36:29.540 I've got in my bag, outside this studio, sheets of paper with the names of hundreds of candidates

00:36:36.720 who've been through our parliamentary assessment centres. We are working full pelt, have been for

00:36:41.840 a couple of weeks, in case there is an early general election. And the key to our success

00:36:48.040 will be. Those who have been tempted by thinking that Restore might be the future, they need

00:36:54.240 to understand that Restore, at most, will be competitive in one seat and will be competitive

00:37:01.320 in hundreds. And I think if those Restore supporters online see that we are the only

00:37:07.140 vehicle genuinely on the centre-right that can beat the Labour Party and come back to

00:37:12.400 us, then our polling will start to look very different very quickly.

00:37:16.120 one very brief question to ask you here

00:37:18.900 and again he demonstrates he hasn't learned anything

00:37:24.380 so he immediately goes to the centre-right

00:37:26.800 the centre-right is the centre

00:37:29.840 there's no effective difference between Labour and Conservatives

00:37:33.240 because they follow the same Blairite playbook

00:37:35.840 I don't want the centre-right

00:37:38.040 I don't want anything to do with the centre

00:37:40.160 I want the actual right

00:37:41.360 and for a while we thought that you were the actual right

00:37:45.160 and that's what the voters are saying yeah and and and if you listen to any of his any of his

00:37:50.140 voters they all think that his policies are basically you know the things that rupert

00:37:54.340 lowe actually says they're not they're the things that nigel forage says it i mean it's just so

00:38:00.340 frustrating it is exactly it's so frustrating right but what an admission of weakness this is

00:38:05.780 it's like well yeah our polling slipped but if the restored voters want to come back to us then

00:38:10.060 our poll and go back yes that would have been eminently predictable in advance right you

00:38:16.260 armor didn't show that weakness so so when starma was lacking he didn't he did not go on television

00:38:21.920 and say we want the green voters to come back to us exactly starma at least had the courage of his

00:38:27.820 convictions yes no i'll drive this labor party into the ground before i admit that my opponents

00:38:33.380 have something that i want right but for us this is for us coming i'm basically begging people to

00:38:38.800 come back how weak is that and so okay the direction of travel is you're losing you're

00:38:45.500 you're bleeding out and you say oh look please don't go no why wouldn't i this is the feminine

00:38:52.840 coded thing that i keep going back to it's it's it's the inability to take responsibility for any 0.84

00:38:58.460 any of her own actions uh nigella um and yeah garages again just to reiterate rupert lowe was 0.58

00:39:05.860 your mp yeah he was your mp you and you already had him you kicked him out yeah alleged that 0.89

00:39:13.320 he'd done a bunch of stuff and the police were like we don't agree that yeah and then you have

00:39:17.620 the temerity to come out and say he won't be on one percent anywhere even in great yarmouth yeah

00:39:22.480 and now it's okay well he will win great yarmouth but he'll be one percent everywhere else okay well

00:39:26.940 actually it's three percent okay well okay now we're seeing polls of like 11 okay okay but but

00:39:31.300 but it's just going to carry on like that that is exactly what's going to happen so and this this

00:39:37.680 begging it's like look look please don't go so well what happened to the haughty contemptuous

00:39:42.680 attitude you won't be on one percent anywhere and that and that's why i made the point about

00:39:46.920 the energy earlier on so so that's why i sucked out of the room that's why it's important you

00:39:51.240 show those earlier videos of him walking into a room there's nobody there except a handful of

00:39:54.800 people who are there in order to preserve the triple lock because if you've got energy behind

00:39:59.600 you it even if you're starting from a lower place so i mean yeah i'm probably willing to admit the

00:40:04.740 moment the store do not have the same polling numbers as reform but because they've got the

00:40:09.040 energy behind them rupert doesn't feel he needs to apologize for himself every time he goes and

00:40:13.160 speaks he doesn't feel he needs to backtrack he doesn't need he doesn't need to explain he's got

00:40:17.020 the energy behind him and and it gives it gives you the confidence as a politician to be forthright

00:40:21.500 and assertive because the energy it's it's like a deflated hot air balloon which is tumbling out

00:40:26.300 of the sky it doesn't have the energy and and that's why he can't respond to it i mean you can

00:40:30.960 just see his posture just look right there his posture his shoulders are slumped he's pointing

00:40:35.400 down this is the face of a man who's defeated and he knows it just like when he was watching

00:40:40.400 generic speech just like when he was being grilled by bbc woman it the magic is gone and right and

00:40:47.240 imagine how tiresome it must be from his point of view because i mean maybe i'll do a daily on this

00:40:53.460 I'd dig out a whole bunch of clips of him

00:40:54.960 when he was riding high

00:40:55.880 and just watch them with the sound off, right?

00:40:58.380 So you can see the difference in energy.

00:40:59.880 That's a great idea.

00:41:00.520 Yeah, that is a great...

00:41:01.320 That is a brilliant idea.

00:41:04.120 But he's just lost it.

00:41:06.200 Yeah.

00:41:07.020 And he knows it.

00:41:08.400 And the thing is, right,

00:41:09.280 and how defeating must it be for him

00:41:11.220 to know, because he has got better offers.

00:41:14.360 He can go to America.

00:41:15.760 He can earn God knows how much.

00:41:18.400 10 million, 20 million, 30 million a year.

00:41:20.900 Yeah, he could be a Fox News anchor

00:41:22.440 in a prime time slot.

00:41:23.460 he's wildly popular yeah they would love him out there yeah and and and instead he has to trudge

00:41:29.880 through this watching his poll numbers go down and things he knows he knows he's not going to

00:41:33.760 be prime minister now he can tell and it was all his own fault and the only thing to do at this

00:41:39.760 point is to beg is to beg the masculine energy to come back home yeah but beg the people that

00:41:45.240 he kicked out of his party yeah like it was you it was beau it was rupert low and it was all of

00:41:50.240 the activists and all the people who supported them you know like nigel frage literally explicitly

00:41:55.780 said we do not want you in our party you are out why because you said something right wing

00:42:01.440 exactly literally even if it's in the manifesto the right wing thing that i said appeared on page

00:42:06.660 three of the reform manifesto in the end i mean a boat went slightly further i mean fair enough but

00:42:12.220 but that was actually most of the stuff i didn't like was was clearly a bit of a joke about the

00:42:16.160 Scottish, I mean, they do like smack an iron brew.

00:42:18.380 But, you know, it was extensively

00:42:20.160 a joke. Rupert Lowy called the bloody

00:42:22.120 police on.

00:42:23.820 Tommy with that lot.

00:42:25.840 Oh, God, yeah.

00:42:27.560 Just for anyone wondering, Tommy Robinson's

00:42:30.500 political and moral

00:42:31.960 framework is basically the same

00:42:34.080 as Nigel Farage's. Tommy Robinson

00:42:36.140 is not Nick Griffin. He is not

00:42:38.200 radically right-wing in the

00:42:40.160 way that, like, Nick Griffin would be.

00:42:42.300 And yet Nigel Farage, because the media

00:42:44.500 ginned up tommy robinson as a villain thought well if i disavow to my right they won't call

00:42:49.860 me a nazi and what have they been doing for the past six months you were a nazi when you were at

00:42:53.680 school it's like what when he was 12 like he was a 12 year old nazi wasn't yeah that's enough for 0.98

00:42:58.140 me like they're never gonna not call you all of this nigel they're never gonna not do it anyway 0.92

00:43:03.560 so nigel farage sorry and i would say like if if reform want to start making amends just just ring 0.90

00:43:11.200 us up he could just apologize no well yeah i mean he could ring up rupert but just just ring us up

00:43:17.640 and come in for an interview we're sitting down i'll give him a fair interview i'm sure you would

00:43:21.100 we have a conversation and and and figure out where our difference is and it would be a reasonable

00:43:25.420 fair faith uh conversation as to okay this is what i believe what do you believe where can we

00:43:30.920 meet in the middle but no he won't he doesn't want anything to do with any of us no he no he

00:43:35.760 just he just spend um whatever it was nine million pounds on setting up a uh reformed version of the

00:43:40.900 lotus eaters i mean i'm sure i was going to do great but um but the so on that note i don't

00:43:46.960 think it's possible for any kind of reconciliation or coalition well it is possible it's not possible

00:43:52.100 for him to do it well that's what i mean right it's it's you know obviously theoretically in

00:43:56.540 technical you know terms obviously it's technically possible but judging by the actual character of

00:44:01.620 the man and the character of the people that he has harmed it would be a lot of apologies because

00:44:07.340 Once he gave the first one, he'd have to give out a lot of other apologies

00:44:10.800 to a lot of other people, Gerard Batten, Stephen Wall,

00:44:13.560 for these other people who are good friends of ours.

00:44:16.040 I've seen the memes.

00:44:17.360 I mean, it's dozens and dozens of people.

00:44:20.820 Dozens of people whose lives he ruined, careers he ruined.

00:44:23.280 Yeah.

00:44:23.720 Right?

00:44:24.140 And he would have to admit all of that was a mistake on his part,

00:44:26.600 and it was just a power-seeking behavior to keep him at the top of you.

00:44:29.900 I mean, if Scrooge's Christmas ghosts come for him,

00:44:32.740 they're going to need a lot more than one night to go through all his past wrongs.

00:44:36.580 And so that's just not going to happen.

00:44:38.880 And I don't think that Rupert Lowe's supporters,

00:44:41.360 I mean, me being one of them,

00:44:42.760 are going to just be like,

00:44:43.700 well, Nigel Farage needs us,

00:44:45.040 so I guess we'll go back and help.

00:44:46.380 No.

00:44:46.680 No, it's not happening.

00:44:47.740 No, the only thing that would get me over the line,

00:44:49.940 if he did that deal with Restore,

00:44:52.400 where he has to commit to five actual right-wing things,

00:44:56.540 and, you know, the agreement is,

00:44:58.540 okay, well, we carve out 15, 20,

00:45:01.240 whatever it is, seats for Restore,

00:45:03.260 and Rupert says,

00:45:04.240 look, I know you don't like them,

00:45:05.740 but this is the deal you know please back us i'd probably go with that and but the thing is as

00:45:10.240 well right it's actually it's kind of there's such a perfect opportunity here for farage because

00:45:15.700 farage on his character can never penetrate the lib dem seats right i've said this before this is

00:45:21.100 the john cleese effect right john cleese loves rupert lowe more than god himself yeah can't

00:45:26.380 stand nigel farage and it's like why because john john cleese is a great example of the lib dem who

00:45:31.800 realized oh i went too far and now i need the structure and order of the world to preserve 0.56

00:45:36.460 our way of life right and it's in all of these lib dem seats in the southwest they hate farage

00:45:41.440 because of the character of the man yes don't hate rupert low when rupert low goes to pittington

00:45:46.440 he gets an incredible response two seats near me uh winchester that i'm in uh that is that has

00:45:52.200 always gone between conservatives and lib dems reform sorry restore um might as could could run

00:45:58.980 there reform we're never going to win there it's not going to happen down the road in easterly

00:46:02.460 yeah reform should run there because that makes sense so straight away there's a deal okay restore

00:46:06.520 takes winchester um and reform gets easterly okay well you know there's there's deals like that to

00:46:11.680 be done yep all over the place uh but nigel farage just again cutting his nose off to spite his face

00:46:17.320 is just what he does so anyway speaking about reform uh restore sorry let's let's uh let's

00:46:22.520 let's see how restore are doing so we've been getting just a bunch of polling where as you can

00:46:26.220 restore really reliably now in every poll like yeah we're at least three percent in the polls

00:46:31.100 now right and these are the polls that will always you know they'll put us in the other category so

00:46:35.420 they've conceded that yeah no we are a thing we've broken out of other yes we've broken out

00:46:40.620 the containment right and so now they have to concede yes restore do have a presence on the

00:46:45.740 board and in fact we had this more in common one the other day which five percent which is pretty

00:46:50.060 solid and then we had trajectory was six percent so okay sorry what one that one percent can you

00:46:58.100 play can you hear hall of the mountain king playing in the background

00:47:01.040 eight percent sorry eight percent from find out now sorry what one to the one percent everywhere

00:47:12.340 nigel yeah well eight eight percent after eight months of the party existing you can't dismiss 0.79

00:47:18.960 somebody at three percent but when it when it's ticking up to eight percent and it's still going

00:47:22.560 we're one behind the greens yeah like sorry like eight percent yeah and and the greens

00:47:30.640 anytime they want to go on um tv question time yeah they're always there if they want to go on

00:47:37.080 you know bbc breakfast if they want to go on itv you know they can get on whenever they damn well

00:47:41.060 want the store doesn't get an inkling so all of that is being done completely outside of the

00:47:46.040 system utterly organic thank you facebook and and what what happens the moment that they feel

00:47:51.600 okay we're gonna have to let them on question time and people sit at home and they're like 0.58

00:47:55.400 bloody hell imagine rupert low on question time that'd be amazing you're a racist i don't care 0.95

00:47:59.980 i want to deport millions yes oh really yeah and the and the audience is gonna freak out the 1.00

00:48:05.020 hand-picked audience is gonna freak out fiona bruce is gonna look like a slapped ass and and 0.98

00:48:10.480 there's and there's like gonna be like a third of the country sat at home going wait did you hear 0.98

00:48:15.180 that yeah this guy's the mp for work great yarmouth awesome yeah but anyway let's carry on

00:48:21.320 with hall of the mountain king because then you've got a poll from uh you gov some sorry

00:48:26.360 electoral calculus some size 10 000 that had restored britain as their first choice with

00:48:33.140 if it was in a first if it was um a poll that erased tactical voting right so the first choice

00:48:40.760 It's just 10% of people were like,

00:48:42.720 no, it's one in 10 people.

00:48:43.800 I want Mr. Brent.

00:48:44.860 Oh, right.

00:48:45.720 That's 1,000 people in this.

00:48:48.320 So it's like, again,

00:48:48.900 you hear Hall of the Mountain King.

00:48:51.100 It's just getting worse and worse and worse.

00:48:53.260 So I've been getting a lot of use out of this image.

00:48:55.320 You know, the meme is,

00:48:57.060 this is the guy in third position,

00:48:58.900 but, you know, he's cheering that he's come third.

00:49:00.740 Yeah.

00:49:01.320 Yeah, but there's a bloody...

00:49:02.620 It's been eight months.

00:49:03.360 There's a bloody meaningful distinction

00:49:04.980 between one in 100 people and one in 10.

00:49:08.300 right and and and this is over the space of i mean we're not a year yet are we are we no we're

00:49:14.800 eight months eight months okay eight months in a one in a hundred people to one in ten

00:49:18.960 in eight months i mean if that looks like growth to me yes and and you know that's that's without

00:49:24.220 tactical voting so if you're in a constituency that has you know 30 conservative 20 labor and

00:49:30.360 like five percent restore you probably okay i'll vote conservative or whatever right but as people's

00:49:35.620 first choice to have one in ten voters first choice but yeah i want move put low to do a lot

00:49:40.900 of stuff in this country that is incredible no wonder nigel farage is going on tv like look

00:49:46.140 we need you to come back well and you've got to imagine some of that whatever it was 72 million

00:49:50.880 i lose track now yeah some of that is being used on internal focus groups and internal polling

00:49:56.460 and what happens when they gather up what they believe to be their core vote and they listen to

00:50:02.780 behind the perspex glass when nigel goes in and when somebody one of his guys says look we're

00:50:07.100 running a focus group downstairs do you want to come and listen behind the perspex glass and he

00:50:10.460 goes in there and all he can hear is these people sat there saying yeah i like i like rupert no i

00:50:15.200 like i like restore but he's got to be doing something to his mind well that's why he came

00:50:19.700 out on gb news and was like restore verse you've got to come back and he looks like a beat dog

00:50:22.740 because of it yeah and and but this this lines up perfectly you were on 31 32 well now you're on 20

00:50:27.740 percent and you've got your opponent who you kicked out is now getting 10 percent in a massive

00:50:34.300 poll that's massive 10 000 sample size is massive and it's like okay well like okay it's his first

00:50:43.640 preference you know it's not including tactical voting all that sort of that's true but these

00:50:49.200 things are part of the snowball effect that is happening it's rolling down the hill now and

00:50:54.220 Nigel Farage, okay, I need to get out and try and stop this snowball

00:50:56.400 before it completely overtakes us all, right?

00:50:59.360 So, anyway, this is the breakdown of it.

00:51:04.360 So, you can see we're 8% anyway, even with tactical voting, right?

00:51:08.600 First past the post, first past the post with tactical voting,

00:51:11.160 and then for proportional representation, so without tactical voting,

00:51:14.480 because you don't need to tactical vote and proportional representation system, right?

00:51:18.220 That would be something like 26 seats that we'd win.

00:51:21.580 hmm yeah maybe i'm changing my mind about doing a deal at 15 seats and

00:51:26.900 that's lowballing it a bit just saying night what have you done to yourself

00:51:32.120 not only should you this should have been yours right you should have been like no the right

00:51:36.640 will just be our flank of the coalition just like corbyn was with the left and we will you know have

00:51:43.040 a settlement with them because they'll never be like theoretically they'll never be like most of

00:51:46.640 the party but we'll just keep the right in the party yeah they'll get 26 seats in the same way

00:51:50.580 you've got the sort of um clive lewis's the john mcdonald's diane abbott's you know and then you've

00:51:57.060 got the sort of like wet you know centrist labor types who are the majority because most people

00:52:01.360 are that would have been your coalition that would have been fine we would all have been in it

00:52:04.720 maybe that's the danger right because i i had a mate who was was going through a sort of divorce

00:52:10.900 type situation separation years ago and he was telling me how much he was paying on a monthly

00:52:16.100 basis and he said look i don't know if i'm being too generous or not and i said well i can tell

00:52:19.500 straight away that you you are being too generous because you haven't checked but she bloody well

00:52:24.440 has so if she hasn't said anything you know you're definitely being too generous that's just the

00:52:29.000 basic game theory here now what if what if Nigel Farage right what what a Nigel Farage he's got his

00:52:33.740 internal polling he's got his internal focus groups what if he knows that if he goes back

00:52:39.680 to Rupert Lowe now and says yeah we'll take that pact that you offered what if he knows that Rupert

00:52:45.640 would be foolish to accept it because actually things have moved so much and it just hasn't

00:52:51.560 filtered through into the into the mainstream polling yet that's a great point that that could

00:52:57.400 be why he's feeling under so much pressure because because the last thing he wants to do is go back

00:53:01.480 and say something like let's have a conversation about that previous pact that you offered us

00:53:06.960 and for rupert to say no that's off the table and then immediately tweet out last night i was

00:53:11.200 contacted by nigel farage for the to see if the pack was still open i mean that would sink him

00:53:16.480 straight away so so he's he's in a really awkward position everything he does is weakness at this

00:53:22.580 point yeah there's no there's no strong play for nigel farage the bleeding is continuing it's

00:53:27.020 unclear how to stem it and any action he takes just makes things worse so okay what are your 0.50

00:53:33.180 options here nigel and honestly go to america well that a lot of money come out and publicly 0.78

00:53:39.020 beg restore supporters to come back how bad must the internals be yeah for them to be like look 0.85

00:53:44.420 guys you nigel you're just gonna have to go on gb news and ask the restore voters to come back 0.61

00:53:49.120 you're just gonna have to do it because we have no other options here it's like oh god that's 0.90

00:53:53.520 take me as a as a restore voter i mean what what's my what's my relationship with reform well 0.96

00:54:00.620 every time i go on twitter i have like 30 people in my comments um insulting me calling me an idiot 0.81

00:54:06.780 um you know because i because i'm not going to vote for reform so is the deal basically you just

00:54:12.940 insult me monday tuesday wednesday and thursday and then on friday it's like okay now vote for us 0.98

00:54:18.620 it's like um no that's i mean that's what nigel farage did his entire career you're a racist you're 0.98

00:54:24.280 a racist you're racist but you will vote for me right yeah no anyway this this is again 26 potential 0.98

00:54:31.920 seats we get out of this right in fact there's the uh there's the thing um again this was would 0.68

00:54:38.440 be what it would be if it was proportional representation it's not going to be um obviously

00:54:42.260 it's first past the post but even then under all of this labor still aren't getting an electoral

00:54:46.100 majority so you know i don't think andy burnham is calling a general election anytime soon i think

00:54:52.360 burnham is going to plateau about 30 and i think that's where i'll stay and it'll be about 300

00:54:58.040 seats that they'll guarantee i think it's just a risk why why take the risk i again i just don't

00:55:03.720 see the impetus for it where he'd be the second shortest prime minister since liz trust yeah so

00:55:09.120 i mean you know whatever i mean it he would have to get a nice bounce after the budget to do it i'm

00:55:14.980 not saying he won't because it's a hell of a risk but it would have to be a proper bounce from where

00:55:19.320 we are now i don't know what he would do to get a good bounce out of it even if he did nothing

00:55:24.000 and just had a kick-the-can-down-the-road budget.

00:55:26.640 That's not going to give him a bounce.

00:55:28.760 There's going to be a huge amount of criticism

00:55:30.720 of you didn't do anything substantive.

00:55:34.880 It's not like he's got any fiscal options.

00:55:36.620 No, it's a slow decline either way, right?

00:55:38.880 So, yeah, I mean, at the moment,

00:55:40.420 it's his personal charisma that is giving him the bounce.

00:55:44.040 And as we saw from focus groups,

00:55:45.500 this is why I went on Gogglebox,

00:55:46.980 he's basically being an influencer prime minister.

00:55:49.280 Say, look, I'm a likable guy.

00:55:50.400 It's like, yeah, you are a likable guy, Andy.

00:55:51.880 but how far will that carry you when nobody can afford anything when you're constantly talking

00:55:58.220 about returning to the eu when you're constantly doing things that are completely trivial like

00:56:03.180 improving the price of marmalade and gherkins when i can't afford to actually fill the car i can't

00:56:08.900 afford to buy a house i can't afford to do anything but it is the personal charisma of

00:56:13.540 david brent it's the first episode of the office where you're introduced to this character and he's

00:56:18.160 a bit quirky but a bit fun and it's like what do i make of this guy and then the subsequent episodes

00:56:23.640 he turns out to be just a complete clown i mean sure but the the point is i mean david brent is

00:56:28.920 an acceptable person to run an office in a paper company or whatever yeah right there's not the 0.58

00:56:34.320 person i wasn't in charge of the country well we haven't had a qualified prime minister for a very

00:56:38.280 long time sure anyway like i said it's all quite ironic and i just wanted to play this again the

00:56:44.100 party isn't even registered he won't be on one percent anywhere not even probably in great yarmouth 0.80

00:56:49.280 thank you um you see kruger yeah like he was he's the one smart guy in reform yeah he's a traitor

00:56:58.440 sure he's a turncoat but he is smart he's a smart guy and he

00:57:02.840 don't count your chickens so there have been uh lots and lots of interesting polling and here's

00:57:11.740 an interesting one so this is in uh theoretical head-to-head matches would you prefer burnham or

00:57:17.180 badenock and burnham wins uh burnham versus farage burnham wins burnham versus davy burnham wins

00:57:22.220 burnham versus polanski burnham crushes him burnham versus low burnham wins uh and just a quick thing

00:57:27.980 luke trill points out that low um caveat much lower name recognition so fewer people know who

00:57:35.020 low is but in the north so low starting with a handicap he's starting with a handicap yeah

00:57:39.020 so badenock versus farage badenock's winning it how has that happened night how has that happened

00:57:46.060 how are you losing on personality to kemi badenock she's not likable how have you managed this also

00:57:53.580 she's not english i mean well yeah but yeah okay but the point is i don't think that matters that

00:57:57.820 much to the general public i think what matters is she's not very competent or likable it's not

00:58:03.100 not even close though is it no not at all two two to one absolutely smashed by bainlock which is

00:58:08.540 remarkable given how for like the longest time she was on like 18 in the polls and you were at 30

00:58:13.980 of the polls how has that happened nigel anyway bainlock smashes like david polanski uh davy

00:58:20.480 polanski and rupert lowe but farage versus polanski it's on a knife edge zach polanski

00:58:27.560 He's the least-liked politician in the country.

00:58:29.740 If it came to a head-to-head between Farage and Polanski,

00:58:33.940 I'd be smashing that Farage back.

00:58:36.620 Obviously.

00:58:37.380 As much as I dislike him,

00:58:38.720 there's no way you're not backing Farage over Polanski.

00:58:42.140 Obviously, but thankfully it didn't come for that.

00:58:45.420 And then Farage versus Ed Davey.

00:58:47.140 Farage is losing to Ed Davey.

00:58:49.100 Farage versus Rupert Lowe.

00:58:50.220 And that's the battle for the right right there.

00:58:53.340 Farage is losing to Rupert Lowe.

00:58:54.700 52% Rupert Lowe

00:58:56.700 48% Nigel Farage

00:58:58.420 it's over

00:59:02.920 it is over

00:59:04.300 right

00:59:04.800 most people on the right

00:59:06.800 and most people generally

00:59:08.660 if given the choice

00:59:09.880 would choose Rupert Lowe

00:59:11.040 over Nigel Farage

00:59:12.000 Nigel Farage has come out

00:59:13.100 and said please

00:59:13.740 restore voters

00:59:14.680 come back

00:59:15.220 you won't be on 1% anywhere

00:59:16.700 or actually 10%

00:59:18.380 on people's first preferences

00:59:20.020 I can't remember

00:59:21.200 what it's called

00:59:21.680 it is over

00:59:22.640 I remember

00:59:23.800 a general or a colonel or whatever it was describing the moment when a military commander

00:59:28.900 knows that no matter what the battlefield looks like now it's turned in such a way

00:59:32.560 this isn't i can't remember what the term is somebody in the comment will know

00:59:36.100 but where it's turned and you know even though it might look good even though you might have

00:59:41.160 your flag all over the place no you've lost this something fundamental has changed

00:59:45.000 we're not generals we're not colonels but but we know politics we're saying whatever that term is

00:59:51.820 that's that's what applies here it's broken it's happened here yeah um and so how's restore britain

00:59:57.920 actually been doing at the ballot box well the answer is uh a lot better than you expect for a

01:00:03.640 party that is eight months old right so the election results so far obviously the great

01:00:08.840 yarmouth one but you had makefield at 6.8 which is what they were polling but then you have the

01:00:13.360 norfolk uh police and crime commissioner by election this is for all of norfolk by the way

01:00:17.140 10% or nearly 11%.

01:00:19.400 The Greater Manchester by-election, 8.7%.

01:00:23.180 The Penniston East is 6.5%.

01:00:26.900 So, again, if you look at the national polls,

01:00:29.380 you're like, oh, you're at 3% or 4%.

01:00:30.580 Well, not in the actual elections, right?

01:00:34.000 Again, the Guston, Kingsdown and Margaret's,

01:00:37.320 St. Margaret's at Clif Dover, 10%.

01:00:40.980 Council by-elections with 5% and 10%.

01:00:44.420 the Holborn and St Pancras one was only 2.5%

01:00:47.680 but of course that was Keir Stammer's former seat

01:00:49.520 80% non-English

01:00:51.680 so not surprised

01:00:53.700 and then the Kilburn, Denby and Holbrook and Horsley

01:00:57.540 in the Amber Valley

01:00:58.380 10% again

01:01:00.020 The point is double digits keep coming up

01:01:02.140 Yeah

01:01:02.720 The former supporters or former partisans will attack us with this

01:01:06.400 and they'll say well look

01:01:07.140 that's not a majority, it's not over 50%

01:01:09.480 you can't win an election on that

01:01:10.780 it's like yeah fine

01:01:11.820 but what we're pointing out here

01:01:14.200 is the rate of growth yes the snowball is traveling down the hill yeah and the avalanche is growing

01:01:20.160 bigger and bigger and bigger as it picks up more and it's just eventually going to yeah i mean and

01:01:26.640 when i was a vc if people came in you know to promote their business or something you know

01:01:30.500 i don't know selling something i wouldn't immediately compare them to whoever the

01:01:35.960 biggest seller of that thing in the world i've got a tech startup and they've they've increased

01:01:39.460 their size in eight months from literally nothing to 10 percent of the market i don't immediately

01:01:45.560 like well you're microsoft is still 30 percent of the market exactly i don't immediately compare

01:01:49.420 you to google or microsoft what i say is are you showing consistent growth are you considerably

01:01:54.100 heading in this trajectory and if you are i want to know about it yep and uh there was this one

01:02:00.360 14.3%

01:02:02.520 Yes

01:02:05.440 So the Peter Lee by-election

01:02:07.180 This is a bit of an outlier

01:02:09.660 Right

01:02:10.080 Because this one

01:02:13.260 Peter Lee is a town near Newcastle

01:02:15.320 About 20,000 people

01:02:16.660 And this was for the election of a town councillor

01:02:19.660 And so the total votes cast

01:02:21.400 Was 443

01:02:22.700 So not exactly a bellwether

01:02:25.260 But

01:02:25.880 14.3%

01:02:28.180 64 votes

01:02:29.680 for uh marcia talbot it's a real world test case it's a real it's a real election it's not a big

01:02:38.580 election but it was still 14.3 so you know what we break out the meme

01:02:43.480 outside of great yarmouth i think that's the best result so far like i said it's a very small

01:02:50.440 issue you know a town council by election nobody votes on it but that's it that's that's still

01:02:58.560 14 and i still got darren grimes and the rest of them complaining i can't believe you've given

01:03:04.660 peter lee town council thing to labor it's like well look western civilization will fall now that

01:03:10.560 peter lee town council is not controlled by somebody of the nominal right yes and at the

01:03:15.660 end of the day the only person you have to blame for this is nigel farage as nigel farage has

01:03:21.140 conceded as he begs us to come back to him as the numbers keep growing in our favor and keep

01:03:26.760 shrinking in his own what possible reason do we have to go back the direction of travel is in our

01:03:32.780 favor the problem is basically that there's no there's no wiggle room left for reform right the

01:03:40.920 the the die have been cast the decisions have been made the character judgments are settled

01:03:48.960 you made your choices and they were not good choices and they were actually like i've said

01:03:54.860 many times they were complete predictable choices politics is about coalition building and nigel

01:04:00.600 farage found himself suddenly with a coalition that he decided to make smaller and everything

01:04:06.760 is right we we said earlier on in this program that we warned him over the course of the last

01:04:12.520 two years we've been warning him and saying don't do that don't do that you're better off doing this

01:04:16.640 all that kind of stuff everything we said was correct i'm just thinking now if if if he came

01:04:22.620 to us and said right we're going to spend off that money we've raised we're going to give you

01:04:25.520 a million pound a year salaries to become our political advisors what do we do at this point

01:04:30.420 i'm not late i don't know what i would say to him it's too late it's too late you've created too

01:04:35.680 much bad blood you you have split the rights my political advice would be to retire yeah move to

01:04:42.800 america yeah which he probably will quite soon anyway quite possibly in the next six months if

01:04:47.720 it gets like i said it gets down to you know double digits in the teens like you know 15

01:04:52.840 yeah 14 who knows where it can go and and then watch restore rocket when that is there isn't

01:04:59.800 that body block on the right exactly when nigel farage is out of the way the field is clear and

01:05:05.240 then we can start eating up the disaffected labor vote the conservative vote and anyway so we'll

01:05:11.240 leave it there but the point is nigel farage in asking us to come back has admitted that he has

01:05:17.160 failed.

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - October 28, 2026

Nigel Farage Admits He Has Failed

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