PREVIEW： Brokenomics ｜ 2025 Predictions
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Summary
In this episode of Brokernomics, I give you my predictions of what the trends are and how they will continue to play out over the course of 2025, and what we can expect that to mean for BrokERNomics type stuff.
Transcript
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Hello and welcome to Brokernomics. I join you from the coldest room in the Lotus Eaters.
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This is somehow even colder than it is outside in here which should be thermodynamically impossible
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but nevertheless we make it happen here and with my first episode of 2025 I wanted to give you my
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predictions of what the trends are and how those trends are going to continue to play out over the
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course of 2025 and what we can expect that to mean for Brokernomics type stuff. Well I say the
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first episode of 2025 I did record a Q&A which got lost down the back of the sofa and you got that
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last week but anyway here we are the first proper episode of 2025 what is happening and what will
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continue to happen and what that means. So let's start off with a nice obvious one the political
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narratives are changing so we're going to transition um you know well in only a few days
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now maybe perhaps even a few days less when you get to see this uh to Trump taking over it is going
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to be the rise of the fiscal conservatives we are getting a new suite of much younger much more
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right-wing politicians coming in certainly in the US and those trends are also taking place over well
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much of Europe not in UK obviously the big losers are going to be progressivism you know the woke
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but not just on the left we're not just seeing losers there the old right the neocons uh the pro-war
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types the um you know military industrial contract suppliers those guys the coke brothers they are all
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taking a big L this year uh with the rise of Trump so I think the first uh main theme here is going to be
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the you know populist populists versus establishment so um obviously that's been a you know a big shift
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J.D. Vance, Vivek, Elon's influence um has um very swiftly displaced the uh you know the the
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Shaneys the uh the John Boltons those sort of characters who who were basically controlling the
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right uh well much of the it was a uni party wasn't it so it didn't make an awful lot of difference
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and what we're effectively going to see is a big continual shift in the Overton window now
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I think my stance on this and I was having this discussion with with Stelios yesterday
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is that every party is a left-wing party you know the AFD reform they're all left-wing parties
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and the reason for that is the entire Overton window has moved so far to the left that even
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if you're on the right hand side of the current Overton window you are still a left-wing party and
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the the that that window is going to move now I'm not sure whether we're going to see the emergence
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of new political forces in 2025 but we are going to see the existing political forces that have a
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rightward bent you know the AFD the reform um perhaps even the MAGA coalition as well are going to
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find there is free space on their right which they are going to be able to uh move into and feel
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comfortable expanding if that was their a bit of their tendency um the Trump coalition as we saw
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uh we you know we've got the numbers now we saw Harry won he did very well amongst independents
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moderates as the you know the US chaps call them it shows that there is a willingness from the public
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to embrace the right hand side of the left wing Overton window if you get what I'm saying this should
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make it an easy calculation that the correct thing for these establishment parties to do
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is to start moving to the right and the left is going to be forced to do that whether they will
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get there in 2025 is a distant question but we can certainly see you know a bit of an upswing in
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in baseness uh starting to happen all over the board um as I record this um Trudeau has recently
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announced that um he's going to be leaving uh that obviously they're going to try and shift they're
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going to they're going to try and make this transition it won't matter Pierre Bolivar is
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going to uh to win there anyway um the AFD which has to be incredibly cautious about its approach they
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can open this up Le Pen uh I don't know if she's going to if she's going to make further political
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gains in 2025 but you know it looks almost certain the establishment parties are still locking out of the
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political system anyone that they perceive as a threat that is a mistake from my point of view because
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like I say all all extant political parties are left-wing because they ascribe to a set of
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assumptions which govern the current paradigm and all of those assumptions are left-wing and therefore
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if the left wants to win they should actually embrace parties like reform AFD and Front National in
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France because otherwise if they continue to lock them out of the system then people will simply stop
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playing by the rules I will leave it as vague as that and um they will find out what genuine right
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wing looks like uh and they and they're not going to like it um those um you know those um pro-war neocons
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in the US uh they're going to find that they're going to be losing a lot of influence it's now um America
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first is the is is the guiding doctrine even Trudeau and Starmer in the UK on a narrative basis are
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starting to make some of the shift um Trudeau has been talking about deportations um Starmer has
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acknowledged how um mass immigration in his country was a big conspiracy to uh replace us all which um
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you know we all knew but you know thank you very much for at least mentioning that uh but but with
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Starmer it is of course just messaging because he every time he's faced with a challenge such as
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the Southport massacre or the gang rape of tens of thousands of children being exposed to a
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international audience by Elon Musk his default is to simply say it's all lies and blame the far
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right so you know obviously it's fake but they recognize the need to make that narrative shift
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at an absolute minimum and actually isn't it striking how the left simply have they've just got nothing
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absolute nothing um the the child gang rape scandal is in full flight at the moment
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and you know you scroll through Twitter to see what people are saying about it and the the only
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argument that the left can come up with is to claim that it is lies well evidently it isn't because we
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have the receipts we have the testimonies we have um many many court cases that have gone through at this
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point you know we've got it in black and white in court records that it's not lies it it actually happened
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and there was a cover-up and the left have got nowhere to go on this there was no they've got no
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outs um very unfortunate for them um even more unfortunate for the UK that we've recently just
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had our election um and before that we had a nominally um right-wing party so our political revolution is
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going to have to be postponed a bit um but perhaps that is a good thing because now the Tories have been
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so completely discredited labor are trashing their reputation as a rate of not so they only got 20%
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of the last election and apparently they've already alienated a quarter at least of their voters people
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who actually voted for them in the last election so um you know this is this has happened before in
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the early 19th century um the the the the old whig party well the the the old liberal party which is not
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the same as the liberal democrats but the old liberal party they replaced um a hated tory government
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and managed to be even worse and managed to get themselves destroyed and replaced by the labor
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party you know perhaps something like that is coming as well um you know we we can hold out hope but
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i mean essentially the problem is that the left won everything you know from from you know basically
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the early 2000s onwards they they enjoyed complete cultural victory you know if this was a video game
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the the end screen would have popped up by now saying you win and because they won they get to
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basically indulge their worst instincts which given their lefties is is is very bad indeed
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and and you never know quite how bad it's going to get with the left quite often it's famine but um
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on this occasion in in this period of history they decided to um behave like chronos the um greek
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god who devoured his own children so you know we've had a doctrine where we must let our daughters
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be raped by immigrants and we must um castrate our sons um you know it's it it was quite mad but
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that was the point they get to and it's obviously undefensible and anyone who has even a slight brain
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in their head is not going to go for it so they've got nowhere to go um they are going to continue to
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fail um do i predict that they are going to get their house in order and they're going to um cluster
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around something like clinton style um uh you know left-wingery um you know clinton style democrat
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will they make a return to that i i suspect not because they are so locked into the woke you know
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woke has got escape velocity at this point you know nothing is stopping that train um that they have to
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make that return to clinton style democrats but i don't think they're going to achieve it in 2025
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um let me know in the comments if you think that they can speed run a return to clintonism um
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i i i sort of doubt it myself other interesting thing battle of the billionaires of course uh we've
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got to look at the you know the elites the power behind the throne uh well musk is up obviously um
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the tech bros are up um you know mark andreessen is um you know be making some great points mark and
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deal on the both former democrats i mean there's there's a whole swathe of tech bros who are you
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know on the up at the moment and they are um very keen because they are essentially tech accelerationists
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and it was impossible to achieve anything under the biden regime so a new class of billionaires
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are circling in who is circulating out um the well gates bill gates um george soros you know these people
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are um rapidly losing influence uh and on the right as i mentioned the um the the is it the coke brothers
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or the coke i i never remember if it if you pronounce it cock or coke but anyway um the the second largest
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private company in america coke industries or whatever it is that they do oil stuff um generate
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revenues of over 100 billion a year um have have basically dominated the republican party for
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you know perhaps 30 years and it's cost them billions to do it but they've basically been
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able to shape right-wing politics uh for decades and clearly their their influence is um over certainly
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at the top level i'm sure they still have influence at um you know the the intermediate levels uh because
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of course um 30 years of buying people doesn't doesn't go away in one election cycle but um yeah there has
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been a cycling of elites in the background um basically from old money to to new money well
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you know another way of looking at it is from old families or boomers to to gen x um which is which
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is very interesting that is a that is a theme i must explore at one point um let's quickly touch upon
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while we're on the billionaire subject uh elon's h was it h1b1 whatever the visa situation um i i was out of
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the low disease office when that was going in going on so i i didn't give my take on that uh i have
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studied elon quite closely because um i went quite large on tesla stock when it was 12 a share back in
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2019 and he wasn't as active as he is now but you know back then uh you know in my due diligence i
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watched basically every interview that he'd ever given and i think i've got a fairly good idea as to
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how the man the mind the man's mind works he is he's he's not like the rest of us he he is he runs
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at a thousand miles an hour at all times he has this sort of relentless pace and it has allowed him
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to become you know the most successful man on the planet he's achieved more than possibly anyone
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ever um with you know possible exceptions of alexander the great and a few others but you know he
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he's achieved a remarkable amount during his lifetime and he does it by being as i say a
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thousand miles per hour on everything all the time so i don't think that he actually wants to
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demographically replace um you know us he simply wants to solve his engineering problems as fast as he
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possibly can and that means he just wants to grab whatever assets immediately now if he had if he
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had delivered something first if he had you know worked with um trump and well i mean he doge is not
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directly associated with deportations but if if we had got something like 10 million deportations out of
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the us um and they had changed the gatekeeping that basically stops young white men and increasingly
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young um uh asian men as well um well asian mean i think it's different things in the us and the uk
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in the uk for some reason it means indians but you know asians i think in the us still means you know
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sort of chinese japanese types all that all that sort of thing um you know um young white men and
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increasingly young asian men were being purposefully excluded on the basis of dei and that's part of
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the reason why you don't have that network of young engineering talent coming through because they have
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been kept out if he had delivered those changes and you know the 10 million deportations and then asked
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okay uh for a couple of years i've still got a shortage while this works through the system
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um can i have some indians please i i think people would have gone with that but he he's too autistic
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he's too short term he's um you know he he's running too fast and he didn't really think it through so
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um i do forgive him um he he's been absolutely blindingly brilliant on the on the child rape gang stuff
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um he he has been truly superb on that so i i forgive him um for the for the indian visa stuff
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um i mean actually personally i i don't mind a little bit of you know taking the best and brightest
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from the rest of the world but i mean it does have to be the top 0.1 percent of iq and ability
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which which actually is a is a pretty tiny amount of people so i'm not too bothered if it's a tiny amount
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of people as long as all the you know the mass stuff comes to a swift end um and actually um
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you know perhaps i shouldn't say this but um you you could also make the argument if the best and
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brightest of the rest of the world stayed in their home countries they could they could probably
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achieve a great deal there and i just think if the very best and brightest of indian engineering
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talent stayed in india quite possibly within a decade they could invent toilets so i i don't
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think it is as simple as um elon first put it found it but nevertheless um it's like that old lenin
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quote when you when you push the bayonet if you find steel back off and if you find mush keep pushing
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uh what what what musk did is he is he found steel when he when he tried to go down the visa thing
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and he found mush when he went for the child rape thing so so he so he swiftly pivoted um and i think
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he's done very well um right moving on um actually semi moving on semi moving on i've got a question
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and and and i might do it i might do a lotus eaters uh podcast segment on this is an idea that i've been
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thinking about um if i'm predicting that woke is going away and that there is going to be a rise
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of the right of the based and this is going to have popular support from the independence and
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moderate so it's going to be a genuine shift of the overton window and it's a rising trend and all the
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tech bros are behind it and all that kind of stuff and it becomes the thing well what did we see for
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the last 20 years the thing was woke and woke got corporate sponsorship so you can go to any of the
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big corporations any of the big banks and they will have basically an office of woke within them
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you know you know i looked at the jp morgan example but jp morgan literally have a i mean they they call
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it an lg t b plus well i i forget it now you know the alphabet stuff they've got an office of alphabet
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stuff um where they basically bring in people on uh corporate banking salaries and say he's like okay so
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here's here's you know 120 plus grand a year um do woke stuff and so that we can put it in our
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annual report at the end of the year that we're doing woke stuff um what if and and and that corporate
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sponsorship of the left ended up completely neutering them i'm i'm old enough to remember occupy wall
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street and the messaging around that and it was nothing like what modern woke looks like the corporate
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sponsorship hollowed out the left wokeness so my question which i've been pondering and what i want
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to come back to is what happens if if if caught if the corporate world wants to start sponsoring based
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what if they want to have an office of based what if they come to the lotus eaters and say we would
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like to sponsor your work and give you money should we take it now um it's probably a slightly easier
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question for me but most of those lads out there uh don't own a house and if somebody rocks up and
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says we would like to sponsor you um you know it is 500 whatever grand a year and that means that you
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know the poor chaps can basically afford a house and we can expand operations and hire more people and you
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you know launch lotus eaters us and you know do all the other things that i've got on my list of
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business development projects that we are which we are working through as best we can with limited
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resources you know that that's going to be hard money to turn down um but you just got to be careful
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because you see what happened to the left when they got corporate sponsorship uh that that's an idea i need
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to develop um please give me any sensible thoughts on that in the comments and and and that one i want
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to keep you know rattling through my mind until um um until we um you know settle on something that that
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you know that's really worth saying on that uh next up let's do some quick fire on some big trends
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to see where we are on them so uh number one let's start off with crypto um i i've talked at some
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length on brokonomics about um you know what i'm expecting from from bitcoin and and crypto more
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broadly in 2025 in the liquidity cycle all that kind of stuff not going to repeat that here uh not
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really the focus of this particular episode um but i will make some um uh supplementary points around
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them big one possibly being stable coins so the these are basically coins um that that try and trade one
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for one with their underlying currency so you know examples like usdc and usdt um basically try and
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rep so so that one dollar equals one of usdc so it is a literally just a dollar but on crypto rails um
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the us government uh wanted to dislike them under biden but found that they couldn't and the reason they
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couldn't is because the way that they duplicate the dollar is they go out and buy us treasuries to back
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the dollars on the crypto rails and because they had grown so fast what that meant was that one of
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the biggest buyers not yet the biggest buyer but close to being the biggest buyer of us debt is
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stable coins and the us has an awful lot of debt that it needs to sell and therefore it found itself
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in the position where it simply couldn't um you know be too harsh with these guys but trump's whole
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approach to crypto is very different he he's an enabler he's an accelerationist on the tech front
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that's why all the tech bros backed him so a proper regulatory framework for crypto is likely to emerge
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that didn't happen under biden um the closest thing to a regulatory framework was basically enforcement
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via prosecution so they'd never tell you what you could do they would simply say nothing until they
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decided to prosecute you for doing something they didn't like which they couldn't for some reason
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tell you that they didn't like it beforehand they they just do it all that way uh trump is committed
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to laying down proper rules so that the companies actually know what they can do uh mark andreessen was
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talking about this on um joe rogan not so long ago about how there was basically a war against anything
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crypto related and that was being pushed through the banks you know anybody who had crypto in their job
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title would find they just lost their bank account which is of course hugely disrupting um you know
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the the the enforcement through prosecution as i talked about all of that are going to change there's
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going to be a framework put in place these companies know what they can do they can get on they can
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build they can accelerate why why do i focus on stable coins though because well put it this way
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visa does something like four trillion in transactions every year and stable coins are already up to more
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than double that so even under the biden regime which was hostile to this stuff they've doubled visa
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and i don't think a lot of people have quite twigged just how fast this stuff has moved even under a
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hostile regime so what's it going to do under a positive regime where they actually know where they
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are and that companies can adopt it seamlessly um you know i mean the the obvious benefits are that
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it's faster and far cheaper um so companies can move around money and instead of paying you know
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three percent to visa or whatever they can basically do it for a tiny fraction of a percent and they get
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final settlement quicker you can use it in all sorts of businesses a good example of this is going to
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actually be el salvador so in el salvador they made it a legal requirement to accept bitcoin
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so you can go into a mcdonald's or you know a hardware store and buy stuff with bitcoin using the
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lightning network on your on your phone so you know all the big chains like mcdonald's and whatever
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else i mean they all have branches over there they've all been forced to adopt it so they've got
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a case study of how it actually works in the real world and of course they will be well aware that
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oh my transaction costs have just gone from three percent to virtually zero and it works and i get
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final settlement and it's fine and i've and i know how to account for it there's nothing to stop them
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wanting to roll that out across the rest of the world because of those benefits so it really could be
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quite fast in 2025 that stable coins or possibly bitcoin on the lightning network becomes a thing
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that just pops up in your local shops uh because they've got no reason not to do it and they've got
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lots of reasons to do it so that could be a quite a an interesting change that you better see of your own
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eyes um there's other case studies as to why it's very valuable the the easiest and best example i can
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possibly think of i mean there are many examples in the corporate world as to why you want to be
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able to move large sums of money quickly and cheaply but a really good example is australia um the the
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reason is because the us is moving from t plus three to t plus one settlement uh what do i mean by that
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so so when you do a say you buy a stock um you've got the transaction plus three days to basically get the
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money in why is it three days because when this stuff started people were on horses and
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basically you would do your trade and let's say you did a trade just before before the end of the day
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you know the next day you could write a check and put it in a post and a man with a horse could could
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get it to um the settlement house um and it'd be processed in three days you know that was sort of
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the minimum amount of time that they needed to needed to do it in a digital age um they basically
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decided well it's all going electronically so therefore we don't need to do this on t plus three
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we can do on t plus one why is that a problem for australia well because a lot of their stock trading is
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going to be with the us market and because of the time zone differential basically that that t plus one
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has already expired um before they're able to do anything even electronically they can't they just
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can't process it that quickly so the only way they can do it is to adopt um stable coins um there are
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many many other examples that i could give you for you know corporate treasuries and all the rest of it
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but that but that one just makes the point so clearly you are going to see crypto emerge into your
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daily life in the stores and the corporates are going to take it on and the banking sector is
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going to take it on so that is going to be a huge acceleration which i think is is worth noting um
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there's no point well unless you need to use them buying stable coins because you're not going
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to see any upside because it is literally pegged to the dollar so you know the more people that buy
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stable coins just means they create more stable coins to keep it at one to one um so well you can
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actually buy you could potentially buy into the underlying companies like tether that offer them
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um but and nevertheless i think that is a fascinating trend and will have knock-on effects for other
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crypto industries which we'll know about be talking about through the course of 2025 right what else we
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got ai yes we should talk about ai um what's the point i want to make the point i want to make here
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is that in 2024 there was enormous infrastructure spend into ai and very little to show for it so
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the infrastructure spend was happening the capabilities were being built but what you didn't
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see is um companies spend x many billion and get their multiple applied to that you know your business
00:26:51.440
is its capital um and it should generate a multiple of that capital going forward and that
00:26:57.760
capital was being spent but it wasn't generating a multiple so you weren't seeing the evidence of
00:27:02.960
ai i think now because it that has been built up you will start to see that applied what does that
00:27:10.080
mean well i think we're going to get into a very interesting dichotomy here because the biggest
00:27:17.040
companies in the world you know the the mag seven as they they call them you know the seven biggest
00:27:21.600
companies they are able to be at the cutting edge of this stuff so i think your sort of googles and
00:27:28.400
amazons and you know apples and so on are going to be able to take full advantage of it and stay at
00:27:34.560
the cutting edge and have products and continue to lead then you've got most of the middle which
00:27:41.040
has a traditional cost structure is not at the cutting edge and they will be able to be replaced by
00:27:48.000
new startups that can do what they do only with significantly less people and capital spend so
00:27:54.560
as much as the fact that the world's largest companies on many metric look overvalued and there's
00:28:01.360
too much capital allocated to them i don't see what stops that trend for now and possibly in at
00:28:08.480
all in 2025 so i wouldn't be surprised if that continues and i wouldn't be surprised if a lot of those
00:28:14.320
middle-sized companies ended end up being disrupted i mean especially companies like um you know the
00:28:21.920
consultancy companies the accentures and p you know uh pete's whatever it is uh pkw whatever they
00:28:27.680
call themselves now um you know that those are um those consultancy businesses you can basically
00:28:35.120
instead of hiring you know one senior project manager and a bunch of overpaid 25 year olds to come in
00:28:41.280
and tell you how to run your business you can basically just get an ai to do it for you um
00:28:45.280
that that that's going to be um hugely disruptive um the other big change that you're going to see
00:28:50.160
in ai is that so far it's basically been a bit of a toy you know you just ask it a question it pops
00:28:56.160
something out very quickly um but that that's a bit bonkers really when you think about it because
00:29:00.720
i mean if i asked you um you know do you prefer jam or marmalade you you don't really need to you
00:29:07.840
you don't need to think that long you just give me an answer if i asked you to diagnose the um
00:29:15.520
sociological trends that have been driving rest and decline you're probably going to need to think
00:29:21.200
about it for a bit before you give me your answer these two things are not equal however the way that
00:29:26.320
ai has been working at the moment is that no matter how easy or difficult the question is it thinks for
00:29:33.280
about the same amount of time and then spits out an answer what we're starting to see now is the
00:29:37.120
emergence of models that will have some deep thinking time and will produce significantly
00:29:43.920
better answers as a result this will be particularly the case when they load these ais into proprietary
00:29:50.160
systems within businesses because um you know then they can say okay well you know do multiple cycles
00:29:57.760
take 10 20 minutes a couple of hours um or even possibly you can say look this is the biggest
00:30:03.520
problem facing my company um here is all of the data related to it you know here's a hundred million
00:30:11.600
dollars worth of servers gpus and cpus dedicated to the task think about it for two months
00:30:17.920
and then give me your answer um you know it's starting to sound a bit like the um the super
00:30:22.400
computer in hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy now i think about it but you get you get the idea
00:30:26.400
you're going to see the emergence of ai which is less gimmicky and actually much more focused on
00:30:32.640
delivering genuine results there is actually a um a version of this i think it's google gemini
00:30:41.360
research product or something like that where it's starting to do this um rather than give you a
00:30:46.880
very quick answer what it will do is you ask an answer it will break that you ask it a question
00:30:52.640
you'll break down that question into the sub-components necessary to arrive at it and
00:30:58.160
then because it's backed by google and google are quite good at this with their their searches it will
00:31:03.280
go off and search however many websites it needs to search in each thing and it will search hundreds
00:31:08.800
of websites potentially pull live data and it will come up with a well thought through basically report
00:31:16.480
and the kind of stuff that it can give you is kind of equivalent to what you might pay one of these
00:31:22.160
consulting companies to do only they would charge you 80 grand and spend two months on it and this
00:31:29.840
thing will do it in 10 minutes so as you start to get more of that you know huge disruption for the
00:31:35.680
professional industries huge impact for businesses that are able to leverage it properly um while i'm on
00:31:43.040
this vein it's probably also worth talking about you know what are we actually going to see from ai are
00:31:47.920
are we going to see a winner takes all as as had been assumed or are we going to see you know point
00:31:53.440
cases for this so you know google because they're they're so good at search can give you real world
00:32:01.600
thought through reports like this um you know open ai uh we've hopefully they well hopefully from their
00:32:11.520
point of view they maintain their innovation edge and continue to lead if they don't they might have
00:32:18.320
a problem but you know what is going to be the differentiating edge for open ai
00:32:23.600
grok um elon musk's one is going to be differentiated on the basis that it doesn't
00:32:29.280
have uh anywhere near as much woke assumptions built into it so should be more honest
00:32:36.240
you'll just be interesting to see how how that starts to differentiate out because at the moment
00:32:39.760
it's kind of a random pick which one you use when you've got a question
00:32:42.880
but they might start we might just start to see maturity of this industry which could be very
00:32:48.000
interesting um ai infrastructure is continuing to build out i think it was one of elon musk's
00:32:55.760
company where he basically was elon musk was it somebody else well basically they they they strung
00:33:01.200
together a hundred thousand gpus a hundred thousand gpus into an ai cluster something that had previously
00:33:08.320
been thought impossible because the error rate starts to shoot up as you chain these things together
00:33:12.000
but they they solved that they put them all together um you know again what what could that unlock
00:33:16.880
when you apply it to genuinely difficult problems these companies could be having so so that is going
00:33:21.760
to be uh significant uh let's look at the losing side of this equation the losing side of this equation
00:33:27.280
is going to be um legacy businesses if you would like to see the full version of this premium video
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