The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - PREVIEW： Brokenomics ｜ 2025 Predictions

00:00:00.320 Hello and welcome to Brokernomics. I join you from the coldest room in the Lotus Eaters. 0.96

00:00:05.280 This is somehow even colder than it is outside in here which should be thermodynamically impossible

00:00:11.440 but nevertheless we make it happen here and with my first episode of 2025 I wanted to give you my

00:00:16.960 predictions of what the trends are and how those trends are going to continue to play out over the

00:00:23.760 course of 2025 and what we can expect that to mean for Brokernomics type stuff. Well I say the

00:00:31.600 first episode of 2025 I did record a Q&A which got lost down the back of the sofa and you got that

00:00:37.200 last week but anyway here we are the first proper episode of 2025 what is happening and what will

00:00:43.200 continue to happen and what that means. So let's start off with a nice obvious one the political

00:00:48.880 narratives are changing so we're going to transition um you know well in only a few days

00:00:54.880 now maybe perhaps even a few days less when you get to see this uh to Trump taking over it is going

00:01:00.480 to be the rise of the fiscal conservatives we are getting a new suite of much younger much more

00:01:06.320 right-wing politicians coming in certainly in the US and those trends are also taking place over well

00:01:12.480 much of Europe not in UK obviously the big losers are going to be progressivism you know the woke

00:01:18.800 but not just on the left we're not just seeing losers there the old right the neocons uh the pro-war

00:01:26.240 types the um you know military industrial contract suppliers those guys the coke brothers they are all 1.00

00:01:33.440 taking a big L this year uh with the rise of Trump so I think the first uh main theme here is going to be

00:01:41.120 the you know populist populists versus establishment so um obviously that's been a you know a big shift

00:01:48.400 J.D. Vance, Vivek, Elon's influence um has um very swiftly displaced the uh you know the the

00:01:57.040 Shaneys the uh the John Boltons those sort of characters who who were basically controlling the

00:02:02.880 right uh well much of the it was a uni party wasn't it so it didn't make an awful lot of difference

00:02:07.360 and what we're effectively going to see is a big continual shift in the Overton window now

00:02:14.320 I think my stance on this and I was having this discussion with with Stelios yesterday

00:02:19.280 is that every party is a left-wing party you know the AFD reform they're all left-wing parties

00:02:27.360 and the reason for that is the entire Overton window has moved so far to the left that even

00:02:32.320 if you're on the right hand side of the current Overton window you are still a left-wing party and

00:02:38.800 the the that that window is going to move now I'm not sure whether we're going to see the emergence

00:02:44.160 of new political forces in 2025 but we are going to see the existing political forces that have a

00:02:49.600 rightward bent you know the AFD the reform um perhaps even the MAGA coalition as well are going to

00:02:56.160 find there is free space on their right which they are going to be able to uh move into and feel

00:03:01.280 comfortable expanding if that was their a bit of their tendency um the Trump coalition as we saw

00:03:08.640 uh we you know we've got the numbers now we saw Harry won he did very well amongst independents

00:03:15.120 moderates as the you know the US chaps call them it shows that there is a willingness from the public

00:03:23.040 to embrace the right hand side of the left wing Overton window if you get what I'm saying this should

00:03:28.560 make it an easy calculation that the correct thing for these establishment parties to do

00:03:33.840 is to start moving to the right and the left is going to be forced to do that whether they will

00:03:37.920 get there in 2025 is a distant question but we can certainly see you know a bit of an upswing in

00:03:43.920 in baseness uh starting to happen all over the board um as I record this um Trudeau has recently

00:03:51.200 announced that um he's going to be leaving uh that obviously they're going to try and shift they're

00:03:56.160 going to they're going to try and make this transition it won't matter Pierre Bolivar is

00:03:59.680 going to uh to win there anyway um the AFD which has to be incredibly cautious about its approach they

00:04:05.520 can open this up Le Pen uh I don't know if she's going to if she's going to make further political

00:04:09.920 gains in 2025 but you know it looks almost certain the establishment parties are still locking out of the

00:04:16.000 political system anyone that they perceive as a threat that is a mistake from my point of view because

00:04:21.440 like I say all all extant political parties are left-wing because they ascribe to a set of

00:04:29.120 assumptions which govern the current paradigm and all of those assumptions are left-wing and therefore

00:04:35.520 if the left wants to win they should actually embrace parties like reform AFD and Front National in

00:04:42.480 France because otherwise if they continue to lock them out of the system then people will simply stop

00:04:48.400 playing by the rules I will leave it as vague as that and um they will find out what genuine right

00:04:54.480 wing looks like uh and they and they're not going to like it um those um you know those um pro-war neocons

00:05:03.040 in the US uh they're going to find that they're going to be losing a lot of influence it's now um America

00:05:08.320 first is the is is the guiding doctrine even Trudeau and Starmer in the UK on a narrative basis are

00:05:15.600 starting to make some of the shift um Trudeau has been talking about deportations um Starmer has

00:05:21.920 acknowledged how um mass immigration in his country was a big conspiracy to uh replace us all which um

00:05:28.240 you know we all knew but you know thank you very much for at least mentioning that uh but but with

00:05:32.400 Starmer it is of course just messaging because he every time he's faced with a challenge such as

00:05:37.840 the Southport massacre or the gang rape of tens of thousands of children being exposed to a

00:05:43.280 international audience by Elon Musk his default is to simply say it's all lies and blame the far

00:05:49.040 right so you know obviously it's fake but they recognize the need to make that narrative shift

00:05:55.280 at an absolute minimum and actually isn't it striking how the left simply have they've just got nothing

00:06:01.200 absolute nothing um the the child gang rape scandal is in full flight at the moment

00:06:06.880 and you know you scroll through Twitter to see what people are saying about it and the the only

00:06:13.360 argument that the left can come up with is to claim that it is lies well evidently it isn't because we

00:06:19.280 have the receipts we have the testimonies we have um many many court cases that have gone through at this

00:06:25.600 point you know we've got it in black and white in court records that it's not lies it it actually happened

00:06:33.120 and there was a cover-up and the left have got nowhere to go on this there was no they've got no

00:06:37.760 outs um very unfortunate for them um even more unfortunate for the UK that we've recently just

00:06:44.080 had our election um and before that we had a nominally um right-wing party so our political revolution is

00:06:52.800 going to have to be postponed a bit um but perhaps that is a good thing because now the Tories have been

00:06:58.400 so completely discredited labor are trashing their reputation as a rate of not so they only got 20%

00:07:03.760 of the last election and apparently they've already alienated a quarter at least of their voters people

00:07:09.920 who actually voted for them in the last election so um you know this is this has happened before in

00:07:15.440 the early 19th century um the the the the old whig party well the the the old liberal party which is not

00:07:24.480 the same as the liberal democrats but the old liberal party they replaced um a hated tory government

00:07:29.200 and managed to be even worse and managed to get themselves destroyed and replaced by the labor

00:07:33.040 party you know perhaps something like that is coming as well um you know we we can hold out hope but

00:07:38.960 i mean essentially the problem is that the left won everything you know from from you know basically

00:07:43.600 the early 2000s onwards they they enjoyed complete cultural victory you know if this was a video game

00:07:49.840 the the end screen would have popped up by now saying you win and because they won they get to

00:07:55.680 basically indulge their worst instincts which given their lefties is is is very bad indeed

00:08:01.840 and and you never know quite how bad it's going to get with the left quite often it's famine but um

00:08:06.560 on this occasion in in this period of history they decided to um behave like chronos the um greek

00:08:14.080 god who devoured his own children so you know we've had a doctrine where we must let our daughters 0.98

00:08:19.520 be raped by immigrants and we must um castrate our sons um you know it's it it was quite mad but 0.99

00:08:28.000 that was the point they get to and it's obviously undefensible and anyone who has even a slight brain 1.00

00:08:32.640 in their head is not going to go for it so they've got nowhere to go um they are going to continue to

00:08:36.800 fail um do i predict that they are going to get their house in order and they're going to um cluster

00:08:42.000 around something like clinton style um uh you know left-wingery um you know clinton style democrat

00:08:48.720 will they make a return to that i i suspect not because they are so locked into the woke you know

00:08:56.160 woke has got escape velocity at this point you know nothing is stopping that train um that they have to

00:09:02.560 make that return to clinton style democrats but i don't think they're going to achieve it in 2025

00:09:07.360 um let me know in the comments if you think that they can speed run a return to clintonism um

00:09:16.480 i i i sort of doubt it myself other interesting thing battle of the billionaires of course uh we've

00:09:21.440 got to look at the you know the elites the power behind the throne uh well musk is up obviously um

00:09:27.360 the tech bros are up um you know mark andreessen is um you know be making some great points mark and

00:09:34.400 deal on the both former democrats i mean there's there's a whole swathe of tech bros who are you

00:09:38.880 know on the up at the moment and they are um very keen because they are essentially tech accelerationists

00:09:46.960 and it was impossible to achieve anything under the biden regime so a new class of billionaires

00:09:53.280 are circling in who is circulating out um the well gates bill gates um george soros you know these people

00:10:02.080 are um rapidly losing influence uh and on the right as i mentioned the um the the is it the coke brothers 0.65

00:10:10.400 or the coke i i never remember if it if you pronounce it cock or coke but anyway um the the second largest

00:10:16.960 private company in america coke industries or whatever it is that they do oil stuff um generate

00:10:22.880 revenues of over 100 billion a year um have have basically dominated the republican party for

00:10:28.880 you know perhaps 30 years and it's cost them billions to do it but they've basically been

00:10:33.840 able to shape right-wing politics uh for decades and clearly their their influence is um over certainly

00:10:43.280 at the top level i'm sure they still have influence at um you know the the intermediate levels uh because

00:10:48.480 of course um 30 years of buying people doesn't doesn't go away in one election cycle but um yeah there has

00:10:55.200 been a cycling of elites in the background um basically from old money to to new money well

00:11:02.720 you know another way of looking at it is from old families or boomers to to gen x um which is which

00:11:08.960 is very interesting that is a that is a theme i must explore at one point um let's quickly touch upon

00:11:13.440 while we're on the billionaire subject uh elon's h was it h1b1 whatever the visa situation um i i was out of

00:11:21.920 the low disease office when that was going in going on so i i didn't give my take on that uh i have

00:11:28.000 studied elon quite closely because um i went quite large on tesla stock when it was 12 a share back in

00:11:34.720 2019 and he wasn't as active as he is now but you know back then uh you know in my due diligence i

00:11:43.760 watched basically every interview that he'd ever given and i think i've got a fairly good idea as to

00:11:48.400 how the man the mind the man's mind works he is he's he's not like the rest of us he he is he runs

00:11:57.360 at a thousand miles an hour at all times he has this sort of relentless pace and it has allowed him

00:12:04.640 to become you know the most successful man on the planet he's achieved more than possibly anyone

00:12:11.280 ever um with you know possible exceptions of alexander the great and a few others but you know he

00:12:17.440 he's achieved a remarkable amount during his lifetime and he does it by being as i say a

00:12:23.840 thousand miles per hour on everything all the time so i don't think that he actually wants to

00:12:29.440 demographically replace um you know us he simply wants to solve his engineering problems as fast as he

00:12:38.640 possibly can and that means he just wants to grab whatever assets immediately now if he had if he

00:12:47.600 had delivered something first if he had you know worked with um trump and well i mean he doge is not

00:12:56.480 directly associated with deportations but if if we had got something like 10 million deportations out of

00:13:01.840 the us um and they had changed the gatekeeping that basically stops young white men and increasingly

00:13:10.400 young um uh asian men as well um well asian mean i think it's different things in the us and the uk

00:13:19.760 in the uk for some reason it means indians but you know asians i think in the us still means you know

00:13:25.200 sort of chinese japanese types all that all that sort of thing um you know um young white men and

00:13:30.880 increasingly young asian men were being purposefully excluded on the basis of dei and that's part of

00:13:39.840 the reason why you don't have that network of young engineering talent coming through because they have

00:13:45.040 been kept out if he had delivered those changes and you know the 10 million deportations and then asked

00:13:53.920 okay uh for a couple of years i've still got a shortage while this works through the system

00:13:58.800 um can i have some indians please i i think people would have gone with that but he he's too autistic 0.99

00:14:04.480 he's too short term he's um you know he he's running too fast and he didn't really think it through so

00:14:11.280 um i do forgive him um he he's been absolutely blindingly brilliant on the on the child rape gang stuff

00:14:20.800 um he he has been truly superb on that so i i forgive him um for the for the indian visa stuff

00:14:29.600 um i mean actually personally i i don't mind a little bit of you know taking the best and brightest

00:14:35.760 from the rest of the world but i mean it does have to be the top 0.1 percent of iq and ability

00:14:41.360 which which actually is a is a pretty tiny amount of people so i'm not too bothered if it's a tiny amount

00:14:47.440 of people as long as all the you know the mass stuff comes to a swift end um and actually um

00:14:55.120 you know perhaps i shouldn't say this but um you you could also make the argument if the best and

00:15:00.640 brightest of the rest of the world stayed in their home countries they could they could probably

00:15:04.720 achieve a great deal there and i just think if the very best and brightest of indian engineering

00:15:10.960 talent stayed in india quite possibly within a decade they could invent toilets so i i don't

00:15:16.880 think it is as simple as um elon first put it found it but nevertheless um it's like that old lenin

00:15:23.120 quote when you when you push the bayonet if you find steel back off and if you find mush keep pushing

00:15:28.800 uh what what what musk did is he is he found steel when he when he tried to go down the visa thing

00:15:34.960 and he found mush when he went for the child rape thing so so he so he swiftly pivoted um and i think

00:15:41.840 he's done very well um right moving on um actually semi moving on semi moving on i've got a question

00:15:48.560 and and and i might do it i might do a lotus eaters uh podcast segment on this is an idea that i've been

00:15:54.960 thinking about um if i'm predicting that woke is going away and that there is going to be a rise

00:16:03.280 of the right of the based and this is going to have popular support from the independence and

00:16:09.600 moderate so it's going to be a genuine shift of the overton window and it's a rising trend and all the

00:16:16.240 tech bros are behind it and all that kind of stuff and it becomes the thing well what did we see for

00:16:21.920 the last 20 years the thing was woke and woke got corporate sponsorship so you can go to any of the

00:16:29.440 big corporations any of the big banks and they will have basically an office of woke within them

00:16:34.960 you know you know i looked at the jp morgan example but jp morgan literally have a i mean they they call

00:16:41.120 it an lg t b plus well i i forget it now you know the alphabet stuff they've got an office of alphabet

00:16:48.560 stuff um where they basically bring in people on uh corporate banking salaries and say he's like okay so

00:16:55.680 here's here's you know 120 plus grand a year um do woke stuff and so that we can put it in our

00:17:03.120 annual report at the end of the year that we're doing woke stuff um what if and and and that corporate

00:17:11.040 sponsorship of the left ended up completely neutering them i'm i'm old enough to remember occupy wall

00:17:18.400 street and the messaging around that and it was nothing like what modern woke looks like the corporate

00:17:25.280 sponsorship hollowed out the left wokeness so my question which i've been pondering and what i want

00:17:32.400 to come back to is what happens if if if caught if the corporate world wants to start sponsoring based

00:17:41.280 what if they want to have an office of based what if they come to the lotus eaters and say we would

00:17:45.840 like to sponsor your work and give you money should we take it now um it's probably a slightly easier

00:17:54.000 question for me but most of those lads out there uh don't own a house and if somebody rocks up and

00:17:59.840 says we would like to sponsor you um you know it is 500 whatever grand a year and that means that you

00:18:08.240 know the poor chaps can basically afford a house and we can expand operations and hire more people and you 0.93

00:18:17.680 you know launch lotus eaters us and you know do all the other things that i've got on my list of

00:18:24.800 business development projects that we are which we are working through as best we can with limited

00:18:30.080 resources you know that that's going to be hard money to turn down um but you just got to be careful

00:18:36.240 because you see what happened to the left when they got corporate sponsorship uh that that's an idea i need

00:18:42.480 to develop um please give me any sensible thoughts on that in the comments and and and that one i want

00:18:48.240 to keep you know rattling through my mind until um um until we um you know settle on something that that

00:18:55.360 you know that's really worth saying on that uh next up let's do some quick fire on some big trends

00:19:01.520 to see where we are on them so uh number one let's start off with crypto um i i've talked at some

00:19:08.640 length on brokonomics about um you know what i'm expecting from from bitcoin and and crypto more

00:19:14.960 broadly in 2025 in the liquidity cycle all that kind of stuff not going to repeat that here uh not

00:19:20.320 really the focus of this particular episode um but i will make some um uh supplementary points around

00:19:26.320 them big one possibly being stable coins so the these are basically coins um that that try and trade one

00:19:35.200 for one with their underlying currency so you know examples like usdc and usdt um basically try and

00:19:43.280 rep so so that one dollar equals one of usdc so it is a literally just a dollar but on crypto rails um

00:19:52.480 the us government uh wanted to dislike them under biden but found that they couldn't and the reason they

00:19:58.800 couldn't is because the way that they duplicate the dollar is they go out and buy us treasuries to back

00:20:05.200 the dollars on the crypto rails and because they had grown so fast what that meant was that one of

00:20:12.640 the biggest buyers not yet the biggest buyer but close to being the biggest buyer of us debt is

00:20:19.680 stable coins and the us has an awful lot of debt that it needs to sell and therefore it found itself

00:20:25.680 in the position where it simply couldn't um you know be too harsh with these guys but trump's whole

00:20:32.480 approach to crypto is very different he he's an enabler he's an accelerationist on the tech front

00:20:36.640 that's why all the tech bros backed him so a proper regulatory framework for crypto is likely to emerge

00:20:45.680 that didn't happen under biden um the closest thing to a regulatory framework was basically enforcement

00:20:52.080 via prosecution so they'd never tell you what you could do they would simply say nothing until they

00:20:58.640 decided to prosecute you for doing something they didn't like which they couldn't for some reason

00:21:02.880 tell you that they didn't like it beforehand they they just do it all that way uh trump is committed

00:21:08.480 to laying down proper rules so that the companies actually know what they can do uh mark andreessen was

00:21:14.960 talking about this on um joe rogan not so long ago about how there was basically a war against anything

00:21:22.400 crypto related and that was being pushed through the banks you know anybody who had crypto in their job

00:21:27.440 title would find they just lost their bank account which is of course hugely disrupting um you know

00:21:32.640 the the the enforcement through prosecution as i talked about all of that are going to change there's

00:21:36.640 going to be a framework put in place these companies know what they can do they can get on they can

00:21:40.640 build they can accelerate why why do i focus on stable coins though because well put it this way

00:21:49.920 visa does something like four trillion in transactions every year and stable coins are already up to more

00:21:55.520 than double that so even under the biden regime which was hostile to this stuff they've doubled visa

00:22:03.120 and i don't think a lot of people have quite twigged just how fast this stuff has moved even under a

00:22:09.120 hostile regime so what's it going to do under a positive regime where they actually know where they

00:22:14.000 are and that companies can adopt it seamlessly um you know i mean the the obvious benefits are that

00:22:21.680 it's faster and far cheaper um so companies can move around money and instead of paying you know

00:22:29.280 three percent to visa or whatever they can basically do it for a tiny fraction of a percent and they get

00:22:35.600 final settlement quicker you can use it in all sorts of businesses a good example of this is going to

00:22:41.040 actually be el salvador so in el salvador they made it a legal requirement to accept bitcoin

00:22:45.520 so you can go into a mcdonald's or you know a hardware store and buy stuff with bitcoin using the

00:22:53.840 lightning network on your on your phone so you know all the big chains like mcdonald's and whatever

00:23:00.480 else i mean they all have branches over there they've all been forced to adopt it so they've got

00:23:04.320 a case study of how it actually works in the real world and of course they will be well aware that

00:23:12.560 oh my transaction costs have just gone from three percent to virtually zero and it works and i get

00:23:19.200 final settlement and it's fine and i've and i know how to account for it there's nothing to stop them

00:23:25.280 wanting to roll that out across the rest of the world because of those benefits so it really could be

00:23:32.400 quite fast in 2025 that stable coins or possibly bitcoin on the lightning network becomes a thing

00:23:41.680 that just pops up in your local shops uh because they've got no reason not to do it and they've got

00:23:48.480 lots of reasons to do it so that could be a quite a an interesting change that you better see of your own

00:23:54.400 eyes um there's other case studies as to why it's very valuable the the easiest and best example i can

00:24:02.000 possibly think of i mean there are many examples in the corporate world as to why you want to be

00:24:05.840 able to move large sums of money quickly and cheaply but a really good example is australia um the the

00:24:11.680 reason is because the us is moving from t plus three to t plus one settlement uh what do i mean by that

00:24:17.520 so so when you do a say you buy a stock um you've got the transaction plus three days to basically get the

00:24:25.200 money in why is it three days because when this stuff started people were on horses and

00:24:33.840 basically you would do your trade and let's say you did a trade just before before the end of the day

00:24:38.800 you know the next day you could write a check and put it in a post and a man with a horse could could

00:24:43.200 get it to um the settlement house um and it'd be processed in three days you know that was sort of

00:24:49.920 the minimum amount of time that they needed to needed to do it in a digital age um they basically

00:24:55.280 decided well it's all going electronically so therefore we don't need to do this on t plus three

00:24:59.360 we can do on t plus one why is that a problem for australia well because a lot of their stock trading is

00:25:05.200 going to be with the us market and because of the time zone differential basically that that t plus one

00:25:12.800 has already expired um before they're able to do anything even electronically they can't they just

00:25:20.880 can't process it that quickly so the only way they can do it is to adopt um stable coins um there are

00:25:29.120 many many other examples that i could give you for you know corporate treasuries and all the rest of it

00:25:34.320 but that but that one just makes the point so clearly you are going to see crypto emerge into your

00:25:40.160 daily life in the stores and the corporates are going to take it on and the banking sector is

00:25:44.880 going to take it on so that is going to be a huge acceleration which i think is is worth noting um

00:25:51.120 there's no point well unless you need to use them buying stable coins because you're not going

00:25:56.800 to see any upside because it is literally pegged to the dollar so you know the more people that buy

00:26:02.080 stable coins just means they create more stable coins to keep it at one to one um so well you can

00:26:08.480 actually buy you could potentially buy into the underlying companies like tether that offer them

00:26:14.720 um but and nevertheless i think that is a fascinating trend and will have knock-on effects for other

00:26:19.760 crypto industries which we'll know about be talking about through the course of 2025 right what else we

00:26:25.360 got ai yes we should talk about ai um what's the point i want to make the point i want to make here

00:26:30.560 is that in 2024 there was enormous infrastructure spend into ai and very little to show for it so

00:26:38.800 the infrastructure spend was happening the capabilities were being built but what you didn't

00:26:43.840 see is um companies spend x many billion and get their multiple applied to that you know your business

00:26:51.440 is its capital um and it should generate a multiple of that capital going forward and that

00:26:57.760 capital was being spent but it wasn't generating a multiple so you weren't seeing the evidence of

00:27:02.960 ai i think now because it that has been built up you will start to see that applied what does that

00:27:10.080 mean well i think we're going to get into a very interesting dichotomy here because the biggest

00:27:17.040 companies in the world you know the the mag seven as they they call them you know the seven biggest

00:27:21.600 companies they are able to be at the cutting edge of this stuff so i think your sort of googles and

00:27:28.400 amazons and you know apples and so on are going to be able to take full advantage of it and stay at 1.00

00:27:34.560 the cutting edge and have products and continue to lead then you've got most of the middle which

00:27:41.040 has a traditional cost structure is not at the cutting edge and they will be able to be replaced by

00:27:48.000 new startups that can do what they do only with significantly less people and capital spend so

00:27:54.560 as much as the fact that the world's largest companies on many metric look overvalued and there's

00:28:01.360 too much capital allocated to them i don't see what stops that trend for now and possibly in at

00:28:08.480 all in 2025 so i wouldn't be surprised if that continues and i wouldn't be surprised if a lot of those

00:28:14.320 middle-sized companies ended end up being disrupted i mean especially companies like um you know the

00:28:21.920 consultancy companies the accentures and p you know uh pete's whatever it is uh pkw whatever they

00:28:27.680 call themselves now um you know that those are um those consultancy businesses you can basically

00:28:35.120 instead of hiring you know one senior project manager and a bunch of overpaid 25 year olds to come in

00:28:41.280 and tell you how to run your business you can basically just get an ai to do it for you um

00:28:45.280 that that that's going to be um hugely disruptive um the other big change that you're going to see

00:28:50.160 in ai is that so far it's basically been a bit of a toy you know you just ask it a question it pops

00:28:56.160 something out very quickly um but that that's a bit bonkers really when you think about it because

00:29:00.720 i mean if i asked you um you know do you prefer jam or marmalade you you don't really need to you

00:29:07.840 you don't need to think that long you just give me an answer if i asked you to diagnose the um

00:29:15.520 sociological trends that have been driving rest and decline you're probably going to need to think

00:29:21.200 about it for a bit before you give me your answer these two things are not equal however the way that

00:29:26.320 ai has been working at the moment is that no matter how easy or difficult the question is it thinks for

00:29:33.280 about the same amount of time and then spits out an answer what we're starting to see now is the

00:29:37.120 emergence of models that will have some deep thinking time and will produce significantly

00:29:43.920 better answers as a result this will be particularly the case when they load these ais into proprietary

00:29:50.160 systems within businesses because um you know then they can say okay well you know do multiple cycles

00:29:57.760 take 10 20 minutes a couple of hours um or even possibly you can say look this is the biggest

00:30:03.520 problem facing my company um here is all of the data related to it you know here's a hundred million

00:30:11.600 dollars worth of servers gpus and cpus dedicated to the task think about it for two months

00:30:17.920 and then give me your answer um you know it's starting to sound a bit like the um the super

00:30:22.400 computer in hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy now i think about it but you get you get the idea

00:30:26.400 you're going to see the emergence of ai which is less gimmicky and actually much more focused on

00:30:32.640 delivering genuine results there is actually a um a version of this i think it's google gemini

00:30:41.360 research product or something like that where it's starting to do this um rather than give you a

00:30:46.880 very quick answer what it will do is you ask an answer it will break that you ask it a question

00:30:52.640 you'll break down that question into the sub-components necessary to arrive at it and

00:30:58.160 then because it's backed by google and google are quite good at this with their their searches it will

00:31:03.280 go off and search however many websites it needs to search in each thing and it will search hundreds

00:31:08.800 of websites potentially pull live data and it will come up with a well thought through basically report

00:31:16.480 and the kind of stuff that it can give you is kind of equivalent to what you might pay one of these

00:31:22.160 consulting companies to do only they would charge you 80 grand and spend two months on it and this

00:31:29.840 thing will do it in 10 minutes so as you start to get more of that you know huge disruption for the

00:31:35.680 professional industries huge impact for businesses that are able to leverage it properly um while i'm on

00:31:43.040 this vein it's probably also worth talking about you know what are we actually going to see from ai are

00:31:47.920 are we going to see a winner takes all as as had been assumed or are we going to see you know point

00:31:53.440 cases for this so you know google because they're they're so good at search can give you real world

00:32:01.600 thought through reports like this um you know open ai uh we've hopefully they well hopefully from their

00:32:11.520 point of view they maintain their innovation edge and continue to lead if they don't they might have

00:32:18.320 a problem but you know what is going to be the differentiating edge for open ai

00:32:23.600 grok um elon musk's one is going to be differentiated on the basis that it doesn't

00:32:29.280 have uh anywhere near as much woke assumptions built into it so should be more honest

00:32:36.240 you'll just be interesting to see how how that starts to differentiate out because at the moment

00:32:39.760 it's kind of a random pick which one you use when you've got a question

00:32:42.880 but they might start we might just start to see maturity of this industry which could be very

00:32:48.000 interesting um ai infrastructure is continuing to build out i think it was one of elon musk's

00:32:55.760 company where he basically was elon musk was it somebody else well basically they they they strung

00:33:01.200 together a hundred thousand gpus a hundred thousand gpus into an ai cluster something that had previously

00:33:08.320 been thought impossible because the error rate starts to shoot up as you chain these things together

00:33:12.000 but they they solved that they put them all together um you know again what what could that unlock

00:33:16.880 when you apply it to genuinely difficult problems these companies could be having so so that is going

00:33:21.760 to be uh significant uh let's look at the losing side of this equation the losing side of this equation

00:33:27.280 is going to be um legacy businesses if you would like to see the full version of this premium video

00:33:33.440 please head over to lotus eaters.com and subscribe to gain full access to all of our premium content

00:33:42.000 so

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The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - January 14, 2025

PREVIEW： Brokenomics ｜ 2025 Predictions

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