The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - PREVIEW： Brokenomics ｜ The Green Party’s Manifesto - Costed

00:00:00.000 Hello and welcome to Brokonomics.

00:00:25.960 Now, as you may be aware, I've been doing this series with Carl

00:00:29.680 where we look at polls and analyse current political trends

00:00:33.080 and all that sort of stuff, and it has come to my attention

00:00:36.700 that actually it's not completely fanciful

00:00:40.560 that the Green Party may actually win the next election.

00:00:43.960 They have been surging under the leadership of Zach Polanski.

00:00:50.140 I mean, they had a presence before.

00:00:53.140 it wasn't that but they had a decent presence anyway for a secondary or tertiary party or

00:00:59.020 whatever they are um but yeah they're absolutely surging i mean i saw a poll this morning

00:01:03.560 that said uh amongst the um uxbridge types you know the oxford and cambridge um people you know

00:01:10.160 the apparently these people are going to be the elite built on british society in a few years

00:01:15.660 when they all graduate they are 50 going to vote green 50 of the students that are

00:01:21.980 two elite universities are going to be voting green and actually that's lower than their age

00:01:29.820 cohort as a whole amongst the young people greens utterly dominate so it behooves me to try and take 0.99

00:01:38.880 them seriously and on that basis I've decided to dig out their manifesto and why don't we cost it 0.99

00:01:45.300 Find out how much it's going to cost to have a green government.

00:01:50.740 Now, I've skimmed through this before and put a few notes together.

00:01:56.640 And I'm afraid to say it's, well, I don't want to give any spoilers, but it's a tiny bit expensive. 0.86

00:02:02.940 And by a tiny bit, I mean absolutely massively, as in blowing the arse off your economy,

00:02:08.480 you know, Argentinian debt style expensive.

00:02:11.520 And actually, even then, that doesn't capture it, the sheer magnitude of the spending.

00:02:15.300 But, you know, let's lead with that and see what they've got.

00:02:19.060 Right, so on your screen, you should have the Green Party manifesto.

00:02:22.400 Now, as you can see as we go through it, it's written for Simpleton,

00:02:26.020 somebody who has a very basic command of the English language.

00:02:30.100 So it starts off with explaining how you vote.

00:02:33.340 You put an X on a ballot paper on the date.

00:02:37.240 And by the way, this is the last election manifesto.

00:02:41.060 This was before Zach Polanski was even leader.

00:02:44.140 So this is bonkers,

00:02:46.240 but this is before the Green Party got properly bonkers.

00:02:50.120 So whatever we're going to talk about here today,

00:02:51.960 the current reality is actually even worse than this,

00:02:55.580 but this is so bad, it's fine.

00:02:58.540 Right, so let's have a look at the manifesto.

00:03:02.320 Let me see.

00:03:02.820 So about this, I'm going to tell you what we do.

00:03:08.320 Oh, here we go.

00:03:08.820 It explains,

00:03:09.320 the chosen MP goes to parliament to speak up for you and make new laws. Well, thank you for

00:03:15.160 explaining what an MP is. That's very helpful. Green parties have been getting stronger and

00:03:19.100 stronger, hasn't it just? These people are helping make your community greener and fairer. And then

00:03:23.840 there's a picture of an actual spastic. In this election, we want to do well. That is the point 1.00

00:03:29.040 of political campaigning, I suppose I'll give you that. We urgently need more green MPs to get

00:03:33.560 more done about the climate emergency. We need to stop more of our services and natural 1.00

00:03:39.000 resources like water being sold off we need to we need them owned by all of us again okay right

00:03:44.220 fine so um nationalization is going to be in this uh and then it explains uh the policies

00:03:52.000 each of these is illustrated by a picture for example well here's one there's a picture of

00:03:58.320 an empty bench and it says lots of people are homeless so i hope you're keeping up with this

00:04:04.020 so far. I'm not using too many big

00:04:05.880 words. People can't get a hospital

00:04:07.880 appointment, see a GP or a dentist.

00:04:10.880 There's a little X

00:04:11.640 for a dentist there. 0.68

00:04:16.580 Picture of some sort of troglodyte 0.73

00:04:18.220 chap.

00:04:21.080 But to do this, we need more MPs

00:04:24.220 who can make brave choices and do

00:04:26.060 the things in this manifesto.

00:04:28.460 Green MPs will fight hard every

00:04:30.080 single day to do this

00:04:31.900 for you and all of us.

00:04:34.020 How uplifting.

00:04:34.960 What are we in now?

00:04:35.840 Homes for everybody.

00:04:38.220 Actually, let's do health.

00:04:41.200 What we know, the NHS has not had enough money.

00:04:45.740 Right, their view is the NHS has not had enough money.

00:04:50.560 The enormous fiscal black hole that is the NHS has not had enough money.

00:04:55.320 It just needs more money shoveled in it.

00:04:56.760 Okay.

00:04:58.000 Or it has been wasted spending it on private companies.

00:05:01.080 Well, yes, because private companies supply stuff that the NHS needs

00:05:05.640 because we don't live in a command-and-control economy.

00:05:09.340 Our promise is to see health and social care get enough money to do a good job. 0.97

00:05:15.460 And they've got a woman with her thumb up just to reinforce that this is good. 0.99

00:05:19.580 What we will do, we will make sure you do not have to wait long

00:05:23.080 for an appointment or treatment.

00:05:24.480 Okay, how are you going to do that?

00:05:26.920 That you can see an NHS dentist.

00:05:29.200 Just conjure them out of the air, I suppose.

00:05:31.080 children and people with not much money can see dental nurses you can see your gp the same how 0.94

00:05:38.400 are they going for fuck's sake we pay nhs staff more okay but where is where is the money going 0.92

00:05:46.860 to come from to do the extra paying when we are already 110 billion in the hole every year and 0.99

00:05:55.860 That hole is getting deeper.

00:05:58.080 National debt of $3 trillion.

00:06:00.300 And we're adding to that $110 billion a year.

00:06:04.960 So, oh, God's sake, here we go.

00:06:08.860 Oh, this is good.

00:06:09.820 HIV.

00:06:10.220 We will stop any new people getting HIV by 2030.

00:06:14.820 What a brilliant promise.

00:06:16.840 Why hasn't somebody done that?

00:06:18.100 Why hasn't the government just passed a law

00:06:19.780 saying nobody's going to get HIV anymore?

00:06:22.420 Britain's elite universities overwhelmingly backing this party.

00:06:27.080 God, here we go.

00:06:28.120 Social care.

00:06:30.600 We all know the social care system has not had enough money or staff

00:06:36.280 for a long time.

00:06:38.560 Right.

00:06:40.340 There's going to be a lot of this in this manifesto.

00:06:42.780 We just need to give them more money and more money in every single section.

00:06:49.680 Anyway, I've had enough of this.

00:06:50.600 right they've also they've got a policy details document which we which we take a look at

00:06:55.140 so let's start with um health and social care just have a quick look at their promises um

00:07:02.820 okay initial three billion for local authorities health and care what have they got oh yeah 20

00:07:12.060 billion of investments yeah so full set of claims so so they they believe that um you know that

00:07:21.160 they're going to inject eight billion annually um into into the nhs um and increase it to 28 billion

00:07:30.500 by um by 2030 so that would be the end of this parliament they're in of course they didn't win

00:07:38.200 this election but you know had they have got in but 28 billion a year is the ambition um dentistry

00:07:44.780 we're getting extra 3 billion social care um i picked that out that was in there somewhere that

00:07:50.540 gets an extra 20 billion investment um oh and 3 billion for the child social uh care of course

00:07:58.100 so you know this all ramps to about 30 billion a year um on their on their sort of promises here

00:08:04.980 and then in social care they're looking for 20 billion um but i mean they think they can make

00:08:13.320 it a one-off but in practice it won't be because that will just get absorbed by the system

00:08:17.280 um free personal care um workforce rebuilt you know these are all structural things that are

00:08:24.140 going to result in um you know um substantially higher spending so really they're understating

00:08:30.200 they're spending on um nhs and social care to the tune of about 25 billion to 50 billion

00:08:36.680 you know they're they're they're basically say we're just going to throw more money and staff

00:08:40.920 at it but okay well where where are these staff coming from are they all just going to be imported

00:08:46.900 do we just have vast swathes of somalian nurses and doctors and dentists waiting to to flock

00:08:54.060 crew possibly that's what they think so they're envisaging shorter waiting lists and better care

00:09:02.580 um but but really what i'm seeing is higher wages um persistent shortages and rising costs

00:09:11.820 with probably no output gains you know that you know in this in this document here they're

00:09:18.080 they're promising, you know, expanded care,

00:09:22.340 but without solving who's going to deliver it and how.

00:09:27.600 You can't just spend your way out of a labour shortage.

00:09:32.080 Because no matter how much money you've got,

00:09:34.520 suppose if you offered every foreign doctor in the world enough money,

00:09:38.200 they might come, but whether the money would arrive

00:09:41.440 in their bank account every month,

00:09:43.200 once you've gone through your fiscal crisis,

00:09:44.540 that's a different thing.

00:09:46.060 You know, the constraint that they've identified is not money, it's people,

00:09:50.780 even if they could just, you know, put people at it.

00:09:53.540 So an enormous set of costs on here.

00:10:00.420 Here we go, housing.

00:10:02.100 That's another high. 0.62

00:10:03.180 Yeah, they've got some white people in the policy document. 0.67

00:10:06.160 That's nice.

00:10:08.640 Everybody needs a warm, secure, and affordable home,

00:10:12.040 yet millions of people don't have this most basic building block

00:10:16.220 of a happy family.

00:10:18.580 So what are they going to do?

00:10:21.660 I'll just skim that.

00:10:24.260 Energy bill is too high.

00:10:26.400 Here's the meat of it.

00:10:29.200 They're going to spend $29 billion on installations,

00:10:32.620 in insulation.

00:10:34.820 What was that, loft insulation?

00:10:37.780 Okay.

00:10:39.260 What else have we got?

00:10:40.180 Oh, $9 billion in heat pumps.

00:10:42.040 $4 billion for, you know, other building renewal.

00:10:49.000 Oh, rent controls and higher environmental standards on new buildings.

00:10:56.280 Right, 150,000 new social homes each year.

00:11:01.700 Right.

00:11:04.060 Okay.

00:11:05.560 So, 150,000 new homes.

00:11:10.280 What's that going to cost?

00:11:12.040 somewhere between $200,000 and $300,000 to build.

00:11:15.820 So you're looking at somewhere between $30 billion to $45 billion

00:11:18.720 of additional spending on this,

00:11:21.500 plus all the other items that they put in.

00:11:26.340 So realistically, you're looking at $20 billion to $35 billion on this.

00:11:33.960 Right.

00:11:35.060 So they're understating on the housing section

00:11:37.480 by $40 billion to $70 billion.

00:11:44.460 And what they're envisaging of all of this is more homes and lower rent.

00:11:50.340 But where are you going to get the builders from?

00:11:53.500 And what's going to happen to the wages

00:11:55.040 when you've taken everybody who could feasibly operate as a builder

00:12:00.340 and you've sucked people into it to build these homes?

00:12:04.720 The wages are going to go up.

00:12:06.000 we just don't domestically have enough 1.00

00:12:07.800 so we'd have to import all the Polish builders back again 0.82

00:12:10.400 but Poland is richer and nicer now

00:12:12.400 their GDP per capita 0.93

00:12:14.380 has passed us

00:12:15.140 but presumably we get them all back in

00:12:17.060 but the cost of wages are going to soar

00:12:19.800 the cost of materials is going to soar

00:12:21.680 if you put in rent controls

00:12:23.400 then landlords are going to exit

00:12:25.840 the market

00:12:26.680 so there's going to be fewer rentals available

00:12:29.380 and local authorities just won't have

00:12:31.820 the capacity to deliver on all these

00:12:34.040 extra homes so you're going to get a slower build out higher costs tighter rental market

00:12:42.720 and basically your local authority you control who gets housed okay

00:12:49.460 they're trying to aggressively expand supply which i agree is the right

00:12:58.720 goal but they're also suppressing the private incentives while doing it

00:13:05.420 so you've got a stated preference which which pulls in directly opposite directions okay

00:13:12.500 fine but housing and um what did we do we did the nhs so add those two lots together

00:13:21.160 and we've added so far between 110 billion which is the current deficit so the so even

00:13:28.040 even at the low end the deficit doubles and we've only done two sections so far

00:13:33.240 and actually at the high end what would that come to 165 billion

00:13:36.780 right getting expensive so far what did i want to look at next there was an economy bit where they

00:13:45.520 try here we go no so their picture of an economy is a house um some solar panels on it and they're

00:13:53.360 in creating a fairer greener economy green mps will fight for an economy that delivers security

00:13:59.360 well-being and a better quality of life for everyone as well as protecting our environment

00:14:04.220 and enabling us to tackle the the climate crisis with the ambition and speed it demands

00:14:10.840 40 billion new investment in for the green economy carbon tax

00:14:18.280 green mps will push for 12.4 billion investment in skills and training

00:14:25.020 taxing wealthy fairly to borrowing to invest us we got so we got some fundraising bits at last

00:14:31.880 right a wealth tax of one percent annually on assets over 10 million and two percents on assets

00:14:42.240 over $1 billion.

00:14:46.140 Only a tiny minority of people would pay this tax.

00:14:49.960 Reform capital gains tax to align the rates paid

00:14:53.900 by taxpayers on income and taxable gains.

00:14:57.740 This would affect less than 2% of taxpayers.

00:15:01.760 What else have we got in here?

00:15:03.960 Are they thinking it's going to raise between $50 and $70 billion?

00:15:06.820 2 billion in grant funding for local authorities

00:15:13.080 for help decarbonize.

00:15:14.520 Okay, well, let's just think about this set of claims.

00:15:17.680 So they reckon, well, first of all,

00:15:21.000 40 billion on green investment.

00:15:23.620 Okay.

00:15:25.760 Wealth tax.

00:15:28.340 Also, they're going to take into public ownership

00:15:32.000 all the utilities and stuff.

00:15:33.860 Okay.

00:15:34.000 uh the wealth tax that that is a little bit troubling because okay let's say you've got a

00:15:43.100 something which is fairly illiquid a farm or family business or something and you know you

00:15:48.400 take you take a modest income from it and yes the business as a as a as a whole on paper is worth a

00:15:54.480 lot but it's not like you can sell it it's the family business you need to run it so it's not

00:16:00.220 liquid it's not a pool of cash sat there it is a bit it could be tied up in trucks and

00:16:04.820 you know oh bloody builders material or or or lathes or you know production lines or whatever

00:16:14.460 it is the business has got real assets and yeah on on paper that the business could be sold for

00:16:19.800 something but but you know a lot of these family businesses they're clearly going to be worth more

00:16:24.120 than a million pounds on paper at least but it's not liquid you know the the the family the

00:16:29.780 beneficiaries, the people running it, they're just drawing a salary and a little bit of

00:16:33.340 dividends from it. So first of all, how are they going to pay this wealth tax, this one

00:16:38.960 or 2% wealth tax? I suppose it's 2% on assets over a billion. So at least the people with

00:16:44.180 assets over a billion are going to have more sophisticated tax planning. But let's take

00:16:47.900 a modestly sized family business. The family business might be worth, say, 8 million or

00:16:53.680 something but it's not a pool of cash that is just that's just tied up in trucks and lathes and

00:17:01.820 whatever you know tools and and all the rest of it for whatever it is that they produce okay

00:17:07.040 you're gonna have to hand over one percent of that every year but they've also said because

00:17:12.400 they're harmonizing tax and cgt i mean higher and additional rate tax is over 50 percent

00:17:23.680 which you're now going to be paying

00:17:26.420 whenever you sell a part of this,

00:17:27.880 assuming you can find somebody

00:17:29.200 who wants to buy 1% of your family business.

00:17:33.900 How would that work?

00:17:36.920 Who, I mean, if somebody came to me

00:17:38.840 and said, look, I've got an interesting little business,

00:17:41.000 but it's not paying much dividends,

00:17:42.440 you know, the family is just taking

00:17:43.900 a salary from it, basically,

00:17:46.140 but we do own it.

00:17:47.740 So would you like to buy 1% of it?

00:17:51.380 But you won't get much dividends from it.

00:17:53.260 I'd be like, well, why would I do that?

00:17:55.100 I can just buy a listed company.

00:17:57.140 If I am going to buy it, it's going to be with an aggressive discount.

00:18:01.100 So, but anyway, they're going to need to sell

00:18:03.700 because they're harmonizing CGT and income tax.

00:18:06.020 They're going to need to sell 2% of that business every year

00:18:08.700 so that half of it can then be taxed away

00:18:11.420 and then they can pay the other half as the 1% wealth tax.

00:18:19.180 Okay.

00:18:20.400 So actually, it's a 2% annual liquidation on family businesses.

00:18:26.540 If you pay 2% a year,

00:18:29.700 you halve your ownership of that business in 34 years.

00:18:36.440 So if you have a family business within one generation,

00:18:40.320 your ownership of it gets halved.

00:18:44.320 Why would you bother running a family business in the UK?

00:18:49.620 or a farm or anything or any long-run enterprise when you're going to lose half of it

00:18:59.020 over what over one generation having to pay this tax and that assumes that you can sell your the

00:19:07.620 one percent of your business every year at the full rate of the business as a whole which you 0.88

00:19:13.520 won't be able to because who the hell is going to buy one percent of a business without a ridiculous

00:19:18.340 discount on it I mean I wouldn't I'll just say no no not unless not unless I'm getting a big

00:19:24.460 discount so that the dividends actually hold up so so so this is this is just fundamentally

00:19:31.000 unworkable but but yeah I mean look at look at this so they think that they're going to raise

00:19:38.280 50 to 70 billion with that wherever that was and they reckon they're going to raise 80 billion in

00:19:45.660 their carbon tax no they're not the cost of nationalization that was in there as well

00:19:55.320 that has to cost at least between five to 15 billion a year when you when you look at once

00:20:03.560 you take these into private ownership that you won't have the um commercial lines of credit

00:20:08.760 open to you anymore the lending facilities available to it so it has to cost five to

00:20:14.700 15 billion in financing cost and ongoing capex for those set of businesses and that and that's

00:20:20.600 that's conservative so i mean i'm i'm seeing 45 to 55 billion of additional spend in this section

00:20:31.660 alone if you enjoyed that content and of course you did because you are a smart person then why

00:20:37.180 don't you go over to lotus eaters.com where you can watch the whole episode for as little as

00:20:41.860 five pounds a month which really is not much money at all and you get loads of really good content.

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - May 05, 2026

PREVIEW： Brokenomics ｜ The Green Party’s Manifesto - Costed

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript