PREVIEW LIVE： Realpolitik #26 ｜ The Year in Review
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Summary
The single most important development of the year has been the rise of identity politics among the white population, and the demand for white people to be recognized as sovereign people in their own countries. This is a symptom of a larger problem.
Transcript
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Hello and welcome to another episode of RealPolitik. I am your host, Firas Mordad.
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This is the last episode of the year, so before anything else, the most important thing to say
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to you is Merry Christmas. Have a wonderful holiday, spend time with your families, go to
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church. But let's talk about slightly more depressing things right now. We have to talk
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about geopolitics. And I think what I want to start with is the single most important development
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that's happened in the year. This wasn't obviously the bombing of Yemen or the bombing of Iran or
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Trump's attempts at making peace with the Russians. I think the most important thing that has happened
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is the rise of identity politics among the white population. And I don't mean that negatively.
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Basically, the Israeli war on Gaza and its conclusion and then the strikes on Iran really
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galvanized the right in the West in a very particular way. It started with opposition to
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going to war with Iran, with the United Opposition for the United States going to war with Iran.
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This is what got Tucker Carlson to invite Nick Fuentes onto his show. And then we saw the fireworks
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that came afterwards. And the reason Nick Fuentes is popular, fundamentally, is because he says that
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every single group in the world has identity politics, except for white Westerners. And this was
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apparently some kind of revelation or some kind of very unusual thing to say. And it is,
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because for decades now, Westerners weren't allowed to be proud of their nations in any particular way.
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White people weren't allowed to be proud of being German or British or American or anything else,
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really. It was meant to be guilt all the way down. And so when the strikes on Iran happened,
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Tucker decided that as part of his arsenal in terms of pushing back on this, according to him,
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he was going to invite Fuentes onto his show. And this led to an insane war within the American right,
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which then turned to a war within the global right over the question of who gets to have an identity and
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who doesn't. And the rules of the game, as they've been set for the last few decades, were that everybody
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gets to have an identity and to be proud of it. You could see the Wikipedia entries about black pride,
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Jewish pride, whatever, and the entry about white pride, which is obviously very demonized.
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And that dam broke, more or less, and it broke suddenly. And it reflects something that Carl has
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been talking about, which is that the West has abandoned its young men. I wrote about this on
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Moda Geopolitics. But if you want to mobilize the population to go to war with Russia, as the current
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EU leadership is trying to do with their plans to reconscript people, rebuild military industries,
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etc., etc., well, who are you going to need? You're going to need young white men. What have you offered
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them? What love have you shown them? And therefore, what reciprocal love can you expect from them?
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And the answer is none. And now they're vocally demanding it. Fuentes is a kind of a totem, or you
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want to call him a token, not really the leader of it, but definitely the leader of a real movement
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that's been struggling to articulate itself. And what we're seeing now is this demand for
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white people to be respected as sovereign people in their respective countries. And that's a huge
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change. So far, we've had a lot of containment. We've had people like Maloney, who will slow down
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illegal immigration, but open the door to legal immigration. We've had people like Starmer, who are
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closing the door for legal immigration to around just half a million per year, but keeping it open
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to illegal immigration. Now we're seeing something quite different, whereby the right is saying,
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we don't want more tinkering. We want to be able to assert that this country is ours, whichever Western
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country that might be. It's happening in Australia, as it is happening in America, as it is happening in
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Britain and Europe. But we want to be able to say that this country is ours. That's what the right is
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saying. And good on them. That's exactly what they should be saying. Your countries are yours. They're
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not anybody else's, you know. If you don't defend them, somebody else will take them from you.
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So this change, I think, is quite dramatic. And it got reflected in a huge number of ways,
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which I will talk about. But it's been a disaster in particular for Israel. Because what has happened
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in the wars in the Middle East was that the Americans initially in April and May were bombing
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the Houthi movement in Yemen. They bombed Yemen as much as they could. But you have to remember,
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Yemen has been getting bombed by American jets since 2015, and arguably since 2006.
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because these were Saudi jets that were trained and equipped and given intelligence by the Americans.
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And they were used against the Houthi movement in Yemen. Let me just sort of
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pull up the map as we talk about different countries, because that makes it easier
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to just have this conversation. So the Houthis in Yemen, here on the intersection of the Indian Ocean and
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the Red Sea, they got bombed by the United States for 45 days, it was. J.D. Vance was the only guy on
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record who said that, no, no, no, I actually oppose this. We shouldn't be bombing Yemen just to secure
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Israeli shipping. But the bombing happened. And then the Americans signed a ceasefire with the
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Houthi in May 2025, which didn't require the Houthi to stop attacking Israeli ships.
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And that was a big, dramatic change on the part of the United States, because essentially
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for the Israelis, it looked like the Americans abandoned them.
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Now, obviously, it didn't end there. In June, we had the bombing of Iran. The bombing began three
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days before the Iranians were supposed to meet with the Americans here in Oman, in Muscat,
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to negotiate over the nuclear issue. The Israelis preempt these negotiations by launching strikes
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against Iran. And what followed was the 12-day war. And the most remarkable thing in the 12-day war was
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that the Americans consumed 25% of their terminal high altitude air defense interceptors. This is a
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system called THAAD, Terminal High Altitude Air Defense, which uses hypersonic missiles. They go at
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around 8 Mach, if I remember correctly. Mach 8, if I remember correctly. And 25% of them were consumed
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in 12 days against Iran. So you had, and then obviously the Americans bombed the Iranian nuclear program,
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but we have no idea to what extent this successfully terminated the program. The three sites that were
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bombed, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, are no longer active, but the Iranians still
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have stockpiled enriched uranium, and they probably have other secret sites that haven't been detected yet.
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And so the result of these two wars was to show the limitations of American power. We're no longer
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dealing with the United States of the 90s and the early 2000s, which could in 1990 simply destroy the
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Iraqi army unchallenged. If they wanted to invade all the way and overthrow Saddam in 1990, they could have.
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They didn't. In 2003, they rolled up the Iraqi military, I think in a month or in six weeks,
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and got to Baghdad in just about six weeks. So now we're dealing with a different kind of warfare.
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And in this different kind of warfare, the Americans cannot just do what they want. They can cause a
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massive amount of destruction, they can cause enormous damage, but they couldn't stop a bunch of
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tribesmen in Yemen from firing hypersonic missiles at Israel and from attacking shipping in the Red Sea
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and thereby closing the Suez Canal, through which I think 12-15% of all global commerce passes.
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So that was a big blow to the United States, essentially, and obviously to Israel. And on the back of this,
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you had Tucker Carlson interviewing Fuentes and basically opening the floodgates to the extent
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that I think it was the ADL who called Tucker Carlson the anti-Semite of the year.
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And the way that this story is playing out is really important because it's showing a real conflict
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within the heart of the global American empire over who's in charge and what are the principles
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that should underpin decision-making in the West. That's what the fight is about.
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And what the right is arguing is that it should be our nation first, which again, whichever nation that
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happens to be. And you have a contingent, obviously the Zionist contingent, who are saying that no,
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part of being Britain first, America first, whatever first, is backing Israel. And that conflict is coming
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to a head, especially because liberal Brazilians, shall we use that term, are still arguing for inclusion,
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are still arguing for colorblind meritocracy, are still arguing for liberal ideas that have
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clearly demonstrated their failure. And so this change is going to play out throughout 2026.
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And you have French elections in 2027, British elections in 2029, a bunch of German federal elections.
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This is going to be a big issue. And you're seeing the beginning of the mainstreaming
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of the assertion that Western nations belong to Westerners.
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I think this and the generational divide that comes with it
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that are going to be the main things to watch in the West, because they will determine the appetite
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of the West to intervene in the Middle East, to intervene in Russia, Ukraine,
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how it will treat economic policy, welfare policy, etc., etc. And the thing is that
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as Westerners become assertive about their own identities, this is naturally going to bring them
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into conflict with the Muslim world, or especially with the Muslims who are already in their countries,
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because you're also reaching a major economic crisis. Dan and I spoke about this last week,
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where we argued that, look guys, we are on the precipice of a financial crisis
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that makes the 2008 global financial crisis look extremely tame. And you see that with the debt
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indicators, you see that with the interest rates on different kinds of bonds. We mentioned that Chinese
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dollar bonds are trading at less than American dollar bonds, which is unthinkable from a mainstream
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economic perspective, but it means that the markets trust China more than they trust the United States,
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which if you know anything about China is a bit insane. So you're coming to a point where there is
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this resurgent identity and you're heading towards an economic crisis. What do you do in an economic
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crisis? Well, you cut spending. What should you cut spending on if you're gearing for a war with Russia?
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Well, obviously welfare. How will the public react if you start throwing pensioners on the street while
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you're still housing migrants on benefits? Quite badly. Quite badly. So an economic crisis is going to
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accelerate this tendency quite strongly. And basically we are in Weimarian days. We are living in Weimar in
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terms of the extent of sexual degeneracy, in terms of the level of indebtedness of the population,
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the inflation of currencies all over the world, people being unable to afford basic necessities. I mean,
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now you have the lefties winning elections on affordability as a key issue, while Trump is
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pretending that, you know, the economy is doing great, but really nothing is becoming more affordable.
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So we're heading towards a crisis at a time of surging national identity. And if you're a minority,
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that tends to go badly for you. And unfortunately, it tends to go badly for the weaker elements in
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minorities who don't deserve bad treatment, because the richer ones and the ones who are better off can
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escape it early. So that's the kind of concern that is animating a lot of liberals and a lot of liberal
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Brazilians. And it's a partly valid concern, but they're playing their hand wrong. They're playing their
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hand very badly. What they ought to be saying is the West is our friend. America, Britain, the French
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helped defeat the Nazis. They've all been incredibly supportive of Israel. We want to reciprocate this
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friendship. Instead, we get some liberals speaking out of turn. And as I was saying today to some people,
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like even when you talk to Israeli right-wingers, they think that
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Brazilian liberals have absolutely lost their minds in the West, and that they shouldn't be listened to,
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and that this is something that should dramatically change, and that these people should stop being liberal.
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So we have this change that we're seeing, and it really ended up informing the Americans' national
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security strategy. It's basically led the United States to issue a new national security strategy. I have
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the link here somewhere, and I covered it in detail in a previous episode, but the most important thing
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about that strategy was its focus on Latin America, and its insistence that the sphere of influence of
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the United States should be Latin America, and to a large extent Europe. Like you could see that in the
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subtext, that what the Americans are trying to do is both gain control over Latin America, but also
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get European governments to change their leaders, or get European countries to change their leaders,
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so that there would be a right-wing leadership in Europe that would align with them.
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And in Latin America, they succeeded in doing that in Chile.
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They, I think, succeeded in, I want to say Ecuador, but I'll double check.
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They're working on doing the same throughout the continent, and the real test case is Venezuela.
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And there we're seeing the United States do things like seize the oil tankers that are going to and
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from Venezuela and saying these are sanctioned cargoes or sanctioned ships, and therefore we get to take
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them away. And what they're trying to do is to impose enough economic pressure on the Venezuelan
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government, both by targeting the drug boats and targeting the oil tankers, to just collapse the
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system. The problem is that these kinds of sanctions and economic pressure haven't collapsed
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a regime in a very long time. They tend not to work. Iraq was under sanctions from 1990 to 2003.
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It still required an invasion. Russia is under severe sanctions. It didn't have much of an impact on
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them. The sanctions on China backfired. And indeed, the whole trade war on China, contrary to what I
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expected, actually, failed as far as the Americans are concerned. It just didn't succeed
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for the United States. And with Venezuela, what you're going to get is Brazil and Colombia, who are both
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Um, both of these countries are going to do everything that they can in order to help the
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Venezuelans smuggle oil and keep the regime afloat. Um, there are, I mean, getting things by road through
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the jungle of Brazil, I'll have to check how feasible it is. But I know that some smuggling goes
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on between the two countries and that they've built road connections and that smuggling between Colombia
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and Venezuela is a sort of perennial problem. Um, we saw that in Iraq, in the KRG, where when the, uh,
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government of Baghdad tried to shut down exports from Iraqi Kurdistan, they just started exporting oil
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by truck overland into Iran and into Turkey in pretty forbidding territory, in pretty difficult territory.
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They did manage to do it anyhow. And they stayed afloat. Uh, things weren't great, obviously, but they
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did stay afloat. So with Venezuela, we're going to see to what extent this succeeds, but it's going to
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become a test case. And if the Americans successfully get rid of Maduro, they're probably going to have an
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insurgency on their hands backed by Brazil and Colombia and behind them, China. But, um, that
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would be a strong message to the rest of Latin America that, look, you don't get to mess with us.
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You don't get to deviate. You don't get to side with China against the United States, which is really
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what this, this whole thing with Venezuela is all about. Um, they're trying to control Latin America and
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make sure that the resources of Latin America don't go to China, but they go to the United States
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instead. Will it be smooth sailing? Absolutely not. Could they succeed? Conceivably. Is it the most
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likely outcome? No, I'd say it's not the most likely outcome. Um, but it does herald a much more
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interventionist US policy. And the problem for the US is always going to be Mexico. Because as,
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as you know, as I've mentioned on the show, uh, Mexico is a narco state. The Mexican government
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is allied with the cartels, uh, at least with some factions within the cartels. They do get money from
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them. They have tried to reconfigure the military's economic interests in order to make sure that the
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military is also on board with the cartels. And that's going to be the main problem for the United
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States. But what this also points to is the US being a lot more occupied with its own region.
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