The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - PREVIEW LIVE： Realpolitik #45 ｜ The End of Globalisation w⧸ Radical Liberation

00:00:00.720 Hello, and welcome to another episode of RealPolitik. I am your host, Firas Mahdad. I'm joined today by Stephen Carson, live in the studio.

00:00:09.880 Hi.

00:00:10.200 So this is going to be fun. And we're going to be talking about a few things. I think we're going to talk about the general breakdown in globalization, coming on the ineffectiveness of sanctions and how China's decided to start responding to sanctions.

00:00:24.800 We might talk a little bit about Russia, Ukraine, and the escalation there to try to draw Europe into a bigger conflict with Russia. And it seems that the Iran war may or may not have restarted.

00:00:39.980 i just got some alerts saying that in the uae there are reports of incoming fire uh obviously

00:00:47.660 from iran and obviously trump is trying to reopen humus so that might get things a bit spicy and uh

00:00:55.420 i'm sure it's going to be good fun

00:00:58.200 yeah go for it why not i was i was gonna say could we get an update yeah sure is that allowed

00:01:07.260 Although I don't know if LiveMap will actually give it to us live, but it should be good.

00:01:13.320 So the first story for today is basically the Trump administration has sanctioned a bunch of refineries in China.

00:01:24.280 And unlike in the past where the United States would typically sanction some of the smaller players,

00:01:30.480 This time they sanction a refinery called Hengli, which is apparently one of the more important private ones in China.

00:01:40.560 And according to this, I believe, Chinese account, it is indispensable for the northeast of China.

00:01:48.280 And it's a big part of China's plans for hydrogen energy and things like that.

00:01:54.080 Are they sanctioning it because Iranian crude is going into the...

00:01:57.480 Okay, they're sanctioning it.

00:01:59.040 Trying to understand why this is happening.

00:02:00.480 Okay. They're sanctioning it because of Iranian crude. And this is a big part of the infrastructure, the Chinese energy infrastructure of the Northeast. And so it's structurally important to the Chinese economy. 0.98

00:02:14.800 Now, since 2021, the Chinese have had laws basically saying that you are not allowed to obey U.S. sanctions if we issue certain orders saying don't obey them.

00:02:31.700 Previously, China was generally respectful of U.S. sanctions for most institutions.

00:02:36.800 institutions. When it came to Iran sanctions, what they typically do was designate one bank

00:02:44.080 and a bunch of smaller refineries and say to the U.S., you can sanction those, essentially.

00:02:49.980 And most institutions will comply and these will continue operating and it'll be fine.

00:02:56.020 To the extent that if you were a sanctioned person going to a Chinese bank,

00:03:00.700 the Chinese bank would refuse to do business with you

00:03:06.820 because you're sanctioned by the United States

00:03:09.720 even if you weren't sanctioned by China.

00:03:13.080 Now they're saying actually no.

00:03:19.620 But this must have started with the Russia-Ukraine war, right?

00:03:22.840 Because China continued to do business with Russia

00:03:25.320 despite very strong sanctions from the US.

00:03:28.180 Yes.

00:03:28.780 Yeah.

00:03:28.960 So the U.S. didn't decide to apply its extraterritorial sanctions on Chinese entities in the same way.

00:03:40.680 This time, they've decided that they're going to do that. 0.56

00:03:44.180 Oh, so the U.S. is taking it farther this time with China. 0.80

00:03:47.300 The U.S. is taking it farther this time.

00:03:49.080 And China's pushing back.

00:03:50.140 And China in April issued a decree saying that you, well, in 2021, and then reinforced in April, they issued a new law saying that if you obey U.S. sanctions, we are going to punish you.

00:04:04.340 And so I think this is a big problem here for every Western company in China.

00:04:12.300 Oh, right. 1.00

00:04:14.580 That's a very good point.

00:04:15.920 Because now your home country government says you've got to align with sanctions and the host country, China in this case, where you have an office or whatever, is saying you must not comply with sanctions.

00:04:28.920 And you're like, what do I do?

00:04:31.060 Exactly.

00:04:31.680 Yeah.

00:04:32.020 There's no wedding there.

00:04:33.940 There is no way to stay on the right side of compliance.

00:04:37.280 Right, right.

00:04:39.000 And if you think it through, this is a bit of a disaster.

00:04:42.340 Yeah.

00:04:43.540 Because what does it mean?

00:04:45.400 Well, several things. Let's say you're buying your fuel or your chemicals from this newly sanctioned Chinese company. If you stop buying from Hangley, the Chinese government will be coming down on you like a ton of bricks.

00:05:06.600 If you're in China.

00:05:08.020 If you're in China.

00:05:08.880 You have a location in China of a global company or something.

00:05:12.160 You're a chemicals producer.

00:05:13.100 Yeah, and you've got a supplier that's right down the street, and now you can't work with them. 0.93

00:05:18.480 And if you say, I'm going to comply with these sanctions and not work with Hengli, what is the Chinese government going to do?

00:05:26.020 Well, it's going to come and seize assets.

00:05:28.680 It's going to investigate you.

00:05:30.160 It's going to convict your officials.

00:05:32.780 It's going to do all kinds of things intended to make your life hell. 1.00

00:05:37.500 Multinationals don't like this situation.

00:05:39.800 They absolutely hate it.

00:05:40.760 I can tell you they're not going to be happy.

00:05:42.200 They absolutely hate it. Exactly. And so this leaves the U.S. with a choice, either to ignore its own sanctions and know that a bunch of German companies, for example, let's say in chemicals.

00:05:58.420 By the U.S., you meant U.S. companies now have, if they respect the sanctions.

00:06:04.300 No, no. The U.S. administration has a choice because, well, the companies themselves have a choice.

00:06:10.360 let's say you're French or German or American 0.99

00:06:12.560 and you're buying from this Chinese

00:06:14.500 refiner

00:06:14.980 if you stop buying 0.89

00:06:18.220 the Chinese are going to 0.84

00:06:20.480 sanction you

00:06:21.040 if you keep buying

00:06:23.540 the Americans can either sanction you as well

00:06:26.600 or ignore their own sanctions

00:06:28.800 neither option is good

00:06:31.740 because if let's say

00:06:34.500 they're supplying Bayer or something

00:06:35.940 and

00:06:37.540 the U.S. decides to sanction a major

00:06:40.580 German manufacturer?

00:06:42.520 Okay. But let's

00:06:44.580 say that you are a German

00:06:45.760 major German manufacturer. You've already

00:06:48.660 exported so much capacity to

00:06:50.580 China that

00:06:52.620 if the Chinese punish

00:06:54.560 you for obeying American sanctions

00:06:56.480 you've lost

00:06:58.480 a lot of your inputs.

00:07:00.900 And they are going to become a lot

00:07:02.560 more expensive. 1.00

00:07:04.120 And if you go and try to buy from a different Chinese

00:07:06.660 company they might punish you too and so what you're looking at basically is all of these

00:07:13.740 companies that have invested in china facing a big difficult binary choice yeah which regulators

00:07:21.900 do they obey and previously it used to be that multinationals wear a law unto themselves

00:07:28.400 but the chinese are different the chinese will say no no you will obey our laws 0.53

00:07:34.700 and that's exactly what the Americans

00:07:37.840 have been doing themselves.

00:07:40.300 The EU is regulated from Brussels,

00:07:42.600 but it's also regulated from DC.

00:07:45.540 So this is a real test of sovereignty here.

00:07:49.060 The Chinese saying that they're going to prevent this

00:07:51.640 is a big deal.

00:07:53.700 And the Americans going that far is also a big deal.

00:07:59.480 So may I provide a little context?

00:08:01.380 Yeah, please.

00:08:01.540 So I have a show where I cover matters like this.

00:08:04.700 Financial Matters with my co-host, The Black Horse, he goes by.

00:08:09.740 Big fan of both.

00:08:10.820 And one of the things he has pointed out on our show is that if you think of everything's made

00:08:19.140 in China, China's the top trading partner of the US, you're actually quite out of date by now.

00:08:24.780 Right.

00:08:25.260 That was true at one point, but it's been 10, 15 years, maybe longer. Now, China is well below 0.95

00:08:32.760 So Canada, Mexico, European Union, if you treat that all sort of together, they're all 0.71

00:08:40.320 above China.

00:08:42.420 So what that means is, and I think this is where you're heading with this globalization

00:08:46.040 stuff, the China-US relationship has already been being detangled.

00:08:52.660 And things like what you're bringing up could just mean more and more, not just the US potentially,

00:08:58.140 but broader. Yes. Broader parts of the West. Yes. Just slowly pulling out. Now, the problem with

00:09:04.860 the reason like this sort of thing can create a crisis is, well, they should just pull out of

00:09:09.000 China. Well, okay. Over time, sure. Yes. But you can't turn on a dime. No. Right? Yeah. I mean,

00:09:14.940 you know, five years from now, they could start laying plans now to five years from now have less

00:09:19.560 in China, blah, blah, blah. But tomorrow they're just screwed. Yes. Bayer, you know, whoever it is 0.86

00:09:25.040 is messed in a bad situation. 1.00

00:09:27.580 Exactly.

00:09:28.100 Yeah.

00:09:28.600 Exactly.

00:09:30.020 And so, and if you're in the United States,

00:09:32.900 you have every interest in escalating this

00:09:34.820 because that is how you force 0.99

00:09:37.600 all kinds of companies in China

00:09:39.900 to sell up and move production to the West.

00:09:43.960 Oh, I see what you're saying.

00:09:46.420 And so-

00:09:48.120 But this breaks down the globalization further.

00:09:50.520 But this means that there's no globalization anymore.

00:09:52.520 Right, right.

00:09:53.560 Yeah, sorry.

00:09:54.180 one more comment from the show. Starting in the 90s, the US, not just the US, but the US leading

00:10:04.260 it, went on a project to integrate China into the new world order. And eventually decided more 0.68

00:10:13.460 recently, yeah, that didn't work out so well. All we did was create another great power. And now all

00:10:21.860 that interaction that we were encouraging for a long time, we need to unwind that because all that 0.95

00:10:28.660 just gives power to China. It just means their economy is more powerful. They have more leverage. 0.94

00:10:33.620 They have more relationships around the world. We just need to reverse course, right? And so

00:10:39.540 they've been- And quickly.

00:10:40.820 Yeah. And they've been in the process of doing that. Now, China's going to be okay because

00:10:48.100 In the meantime, starting in the 90s and before that under Ding Xiaoping, China has developed an

00:10:55.060 economy and they are now a developed country. And they could withdraw from a lot of these

00:11:01.140 relationships and there'd be downsides, but they wouldn't collapse back into all being rice farmers.

00:11:06.820 Let's put it that way. That ain't happening. China has permanently changed into a developed country

00:11:12.500 and it's going to be no matter what the West does. It can chart its own course and 0.95

00:11:17.780 And it, to a great degree, is charting its own course.

00:11:20.300 And just in terms of evidence for your claim, here is Jensen Huang, the CEO of NVIDIA, saying that their market share in China is now 0%.

00:11:38.420 Wow. The world's largest semiconductor market.

00:11:44.920 Yes.

00:11:45.260 yeah and and here's the important bit there china's ai is on par with the u.s in other words

00:11:52.040 they don't they don't need us exactly is what is being said here yeah exactly exactly i noticed

00:11:59.000 who's posting this so so yes he's a little on the pro china he's too pro china yeah yeah you have to

00:12:04.260 be careful china you have to you have to take it with a grain of salt yeah but the headline is real

00:12:08.000 Yeah, right, right. 0.70

00:12:09.520 But the headline is real.

00:12:12.260 And Jensen Huang saying this is a really big problem because it means that if you are one of the countries that is in China's orbit, you have an alternative to the United States.

00:12:27.140 Right. Now, the question is, does the U.S. end up propping up a bunch of powers around China

00:12:34.680 to try to do containment 2.0? And does that succeed?

00:12:41.060 Right. Or to bring some future topics into it, does the U.S. decide, you know what,

00:12:47.840 we're going to stop spending our resources over in Asia because we want to spend them

00:12:52.840 in the Middle East. And so they just kind of, you know, China encroaches. China's smart. China's 0.62

00:13:00.500 patient. It's not going to move fast. It's going to continue to build bridges with Taiwan, et cetera, 0.99

00:13:06.520 right? And as the US has these moments where it gets distracted in another part of the world,

00:13:13.040 China just moves in a little more. Exactly. Right? Slowly, slowly, surely. Because it's 0.68

00:13:17.960 the great power over there and it's going to be. Yes. I mean, we all know that's coming.

00:13:21.700 Yes.

00:13:22.300 It's coming a little faster than I expected, I have to say. 1.00

00:13:24.660 It seems that it, and the more the United States does stupid things like go to war with 1.00

00:13:30.640 Iran, the faster this happens. 1.00

00:13:32.360 Yep. 0.57

00:13:33.420 It's an opportunity for China every time the US does something like this.

00:13:37.040 Now, I can hear the argument that, no, this is actually a big war against Chinese energy. 0.60

00:13:42.220 Yeah. 0.55

00:13:42.520 It's intended to cripple China, et cetera, et cetera.

00:13:44.860 Yeah, I don't buy.

00:13:46.120 First, the track record of bribes to the Trump administration doesn't support this.

00:13:50.840 And the second, this is just like Iraq, which didn't in any way harm Russia or harm China or anything like that.

00:14:02.840 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:14:04.220 And third, the Chinese can develop alternative resources of supply faster than anyone else.

00:14:11.160 Because they have all of Central Asia, they have Mongolia, they have Russia.

00:14:16.100 Russia is a huge...

00:14:18.300 Russia has a lot of natural resources.

00:14:20.000 And so does all of Central Asia.

00:14:21.780 And they are cooperating with China.

00:14:23.060 Exactly.

00:14:23.600 And so does all of Central Asia.

00:14:24.700 And Central Asia's population is maybe in total altogether 80 million, which compared to China's 1.4 billion is not very much. 0.64

00:14:35.600 Like they could literally settle all of Central Asia and just make it Chinese. 0.54

00:14:40.680 Right, right. 0.98

00:14:41.100 And in three generations, you wouldn't notice.

00:14:42.960 Or they could just sell the natural resources to China and everybody's happy, right?

00:14:46.480 Exactly.

00:14:46.700 Nobody has to lose here.

00:14:47.860 Exactly, exactly.

00:14:49.520 Except for the U.S. empire.

00:14:51.180 Except for the U.S. empire.

00:14:52.340 Right, right.

00:14:52.740 But you know that they're going to be sending workers

00:14:54.540 and that they're going to be, I mean, if you mean-

00:14:57.440 Building infrastructure.

00:14:58.420 Exactly.

00:14:59.020 Belt and road type of stuff, right.

00:15:00.760 Which they've already done to a huge degree. 0.95

00:15:03.660 In Central Asia. 0.83

00:15:04.920 In Central Asia. 0.95

00:15:05.720 Right, right. 0.84

00:15:06.020 And so they're going to double down on this. 0.58

00:15:07.520 And so, okay, you're hitting Iran to weaken China, maybe, 0.80

00:15:14.080 but are you sure? 0.70

00:15:16.620 Yeah.

00:15:16.800 I mean, to me, better than that 4D chess stuff of like, oh, it's this clever plan that I've

00:15:22.640 somehow figured out that no one else has.

00:15:24.660 To me, just look at what is structurally changing as a result of the actions.

00:15:29.920 Forget the rhetoric and the intent.

00:15:31.900 What is structurally changing?

00:15:33.540 What's structurally changing, as we're discussing here, is that China is becoming more dominant

00:15:38.740 in its region and there's more disentanglement of the West from that region.

00:15:44.980 Well, over time, might not be tomorrow, might not be five or 10 years from now.

00:15:48.800 Over time, where is that pointing?

00:15:50.760 That's pointing to deglobalization, right?

00:15:53.780 Exactly.

00:15:54.460 Yeah.

00:15:54.840 Separate parallel spheres.

00:15:57.580 Yes.

00:15:58.220 Right?

00:15:58.540 With their own separate supply chains, et cetera.

00:16:01.120 Exactly.

00:16:01.700 Yeah.

00:16:01.820 And, you know, in terms of this attempt to just go against China and Russia, we're also seeing a big escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war.

00:16:20.100 Now, this I didn't know. When?

00:16:22.300 So over the last couple of weeks, basically, the Ukrainians have really been hitting Russian energy infrastructure quite hard. 0.92

00:16:31.580 Russian infrastructure. 1.00

00:16:32.760 Oh, okay.

00:16:34.140 Now, we don't know how big the losses are. 0.90

00:16:36.700 The Ukrainians obviously have an interest in exaggerating them, the Russians in understating them. 0.95

00:16:41.500 This is always a story. 0.69

00:16:44.040 But we've seen a bunch of big hits against Russian energy infrastructure.

00:16:48.980 they burnt a bunch of

00:16:52.920 a couple of tanks

00:16:54.200 550,000 cubic meters

00:16:57.180 that's a lot

00:16:58.420 that's a lot

00:17:00.640 and you see that these assets

00:17:03.140 were just completely wrecked

00:17:04.840 oh wow

00:17:05.320 that's some pretty heavy damage there

00:17:08.400 yep

00:17:08.720 you see them hitting

00:17:13.400 oil sites

00:17:15.220 all over Russia

00:17:16.460 including very much in depth

00:17:19.580 and

00:17:21.140 yeah they're not on the border

00:17:23.120 not just on the border

00:17:24.180 they're not just hitting the border

00:17:25.380 they are hitting deep into Leningrad

00:17:27.440 they're hitting

00:17:28.200 in all kinds of locations

00:17:31.800 I think I have the wrong link here

00:17:33.380 but okay

00:17:33.840 and of course this is

00:17:35.140 just we should note

00:17:36.680 this sounds like an escalation

00:17:38.620 that is

00:17:39.180 Russia's not going to allow

00:17:42.100 its energy infrastructure

00:17:43.160 to just be destroyed

00:17:44.140 right

00:17:45.340 I mean, that's, you know, when you talk about Mearsheimer, right?

00:17:49.920 Yep.

00:17:50.180 And when do great powers, when do you cross the red line?

00:17:53.440 Yep.

00:17:53.820 This is where they're getting on the red line here.

00:17:56.120 And it's deliberate.

00:17:57.580 Like existential is what I'm trying to say.

00:17:59.140 Exactly.

00:17:59.740 Existential.

00:18:01.100 And it's deliberate.

00:18:02.080 And there's two things to mention here.

00:18:04.140 Yeah.

00:18:04.500 The first thing to mention is that some of these attacks seem to have traversed EU airspace.

00:18:11.500 latvia so poland latvia lithuania and uh the other one whatever the estonia estonia yes

00:18:18.920 and in okay in order to hit saint petersburg yeah and that's a pretty serious escalation

00:18:27.360 because if you allow your airspace to be used in attacks on third countries that's what's gotten

00:18:34.260 the iranians to start bombing the bejesus out of everywhere in the gcc iran has now established a

00:18:39.920 new precedent, will Russia follow? I wouldn't want to be Estonia right now to find out. 0.51

00:18:44.540 Exactly. And under international law, if you allow your territory to be used in the

00:18:50.860 conduct of attacks against a third country, you are an aggressor. UN General Assembly Resolution

00:19:00.020 3000 something and 14. I forget which one. I wrote about it recently. But technically,

00:19:08.040 that's an act of aggression. Okay. So you're saying Iran actually has some internationally

00:19:13.860 legal grounds for how it's itself against the Gulf countries. Yes. And therefore, Russia could

00:19:21.360 have- And it applies here. For attacking EU countries. Exactly. Exactly. It's not a world 0.73

00:19:28.740 war. It's a little scary. Whoa. It's just a small world war. It's just a small world war.

00:19:35.720 You know, it's like we're touching the, how close can we get our finger to the fire here?

00:19:40.180 Exactly.

00:19:40.580 And when you get there, if the Russians retaliate and say, you were involved in an attack against us by allowing your airspace to be used, obviously they're going to call on Article 5.

00:19:52.800 Right.

00:19:54.660 And then that becomes a bit of an issue, I'd say.

00:19:57.660 Right.

00:19:57.920 And of course, what started all this was, would the Ukraine become an Article 5 country, right?

00:20:04.540 Exactly.

00:20:04.880 It would have become a member of the European Union. 0.92

00:20:07.160 And Russia was like, no, that's a red line that can't be crossed. 0.93

00:20:10.140 Yep. 0.97

00:20:10.740 And that's what started this all.

00:20:12.400 Anyway, yeah.

00:20:13.860 So we're slowly approaching a phase that is really dangerous. 0.67

00:20:17.620 And now Britain is saying that they want to form a naval alliance to combat the Russian threat.

00:20:26.380 Along with other NATO countries, essentially, but not really under NATO.

00:20:32.900 So it's NATO and not NATO.

00:20:35.260 Again, an unwinding of the US empire.

00:20:37.460 I've been very interested in this theme, by the way.

00:20:40.560 That is, if we pay attention to what's structurally happening,

00:20:45.160 if this goes forward, you now have our allies, US allies, Europe,

00:20:50.840 has its own little navy, but now they have a navy.

00:20:54.020 Yeah.

00:20:54.520 And yes, there are allies, but who knows what happens tomorrow, right?

00:20:58.180 I mean-

00:20:58.740 With that navy.

00:20:59.320 it won't be under that unified command or whatever you call it yes it'll be under european control

00:21:05.880 exactly yeah that's what that's what matters if that happens that's what that's what to keep the

00:21:11.460 ball to keep your eye on now the problem has always been for the europeans is that they can't

00:21:15.420 agree on a unified command they can't actually do it on their own because a german general doesn't

00:21:22.660 want to be subject to a french general uh or an english one for that matter and vice versa but

00:21:30.100 will this inspire them to get that sorted out well i don't think all of them but i think that the

00:21:35.800 baltic states and the uh scandinavians they'll be motivated have a better chance of agreeing

00:21:42.720 something alongside britain france and and maybe germany on some kind of framework with

00:21:50.040 chaotic command 0.81

00:21:52.000 until they need

00:21:53.000 united command.

00:21:54.320 Right.

00:21:55.100 Which is how these things

00:21:56.260 actually happen.

00:21:57.540 First, it starts with chaos.

00:21:58.940 Eventually, they agree,

00:21:59.860 okay, this chaos is really bad for us.

00:22:01.280 We'd better agree on something.

00:22:02.980 But that only happens

00:22:04.300 after there is military conflict.

00:22:07.040 Like, it's easier to agree

00:22:08.060 a joint command

00:22:08.780 when you are in conflict,

00:22:10.660 at least initially,

00:22:12.640 rather than at the end.

00:22:14.540 Or rather than beforehand,

00:22:16.520 sorry.

00:22:17.400 And usually near the end,

00:22:18.640 if you're losing,

00:22:19.280 that's when United Command breaks down

00:22:21.340 and everybody runs for their own interests.

00:22:25.260 Right, right.

00:22:26.460 And so we're getting to the stage

00:22:27.940 where the European involvement in the war

00:22:31.220 just doesn't seem to be relenting.

00:22:36.320 And Trump is talking about leaving NATO,

00:22:39.720 or not leaving NATO,

00:22:41.180 about reducing the American presence in NATO.

00:22:44.160 But this is presented as being

00:22:46.080 some kind of punishment for Europe

00:22:47.620 and the American presence is presented

00:22:49.380 as some kind of favor for Europe.

00:22:51.800 Neither of these things are true.

00:22:53.200 There's another story that could be told.

00:22:54.740 Go on.

00:22:55.440 No, well, just that this has been...

00:22:58.820 Okay, so quick, fun historical fact.

00:23:01.580 I was visiting the Tower of London back in 1987

00:23:03.920 and I saw a little...

00:23:06.120 There was a little thing in the museum there

00:23:07.620 that said that they had built the Tower of London

00:23:12.220 to protect and to control.

00:23:14.280 that's probably a pretty good motto for the eu from the point of view of the u.s empire yes

00:23:20.460 we're going to protect you guys we're also going to keep you under our control exactly right

00:23:24.600 and so but at the same time when you make these kinds of threats okay europe is in a terrible

00:23:33.180 state right now we can all agree on that but you're also motivating an end to the european

00:23:42.840 dependence on American weapons.

00:23:44.500 Right.

00:23:45.380 Again, what's the structural change?

00:23:47.560 Exactly.

00:23:48.160 Yeah.

00:23:48.460 And you're also motivating some kind of European autonomy, which again, breaks down globalization.

00:23:56.360 Yeah.

00:23:56.540 Do the Europeans make their own weapons, create their own military supply chain, create their

00:24:02.760 own Navy?

00:24:04.480 The pieces start to fall in place of a different world.

00:24:08.220 Slowly.

00:24:08.660 Yeah.

00:24:09.120 We're looking at trends that might go somewhere.

00:24:12.000 And you see the wisdom of the French insisting on having a totally autonomous weapons supply chain.

00:24:18.820 Oh, okay. I didn't know that.

00:24:20.140 The French have been absolutely adamant about this stuff.

00:24:23.840 Right. They've never deviated.

00:24:26.320 They've never deviated.

00:24:27.280 Right, right.

00:24:27.780 They make their own submarines.

00:24:29.320 They make their own aircraft carriers or one aircraft carrier.

00:24:32.120 They make their own aircraft.

00:24:33.420 They make their own missiles, their own missile interceptors, etc., etc., etc.

00:24:37.740 They never want to be dependent.

00:24:39.640 This means that it can be done.

00:24:41.540 They're showing other European countries.

00:24:43.440 You could do that too, or you could work with us.

00:24:46.020 We could have a European thing.

00:24:47.080 The problem that they've had working with other European countries

00:24:49.980 has been insisting that they don't even depend on Germany.

00:24:55.760 Which is a big manufacturing system.

00:24:57.540 Which is a huge manufacturing power at the end of the day.

00:24:59.640 Yeah, yeah. 0.68

00:25:00.320 The French insist on total autonomy. 1.00

00:25:02.980 Got it. 0.95

00:25:03.460 So French tanks are French, and French artillery is French. 0.68

00:25:07.180 Every bolt.

00:25:08.180 Saddle, everything.

00:25:09.340 Yeah, yeah.

00:25:09.740 everything

00:25:11.140 they insist on a totally autonomous supply chain

00:25:13.940 military supply chain

00:25:15.000 and that's why they insisted on nuclear energy

00:25:18.100 also for purposes of autonomy

00:25:19.880 got it

00:25:20.520 and so they're in a good position here 0.75

00:25:23.620 but nobody wants to be commanded by French officers

00:25:26.040 Napoleon doesn't bring back great memories

00:25:30.980 for a lot of people

00:25:31.740 you know

00:25:34.020 I don't know man

00:25:35.280 I think we could use Napoleon here

00:25:36.480 but that's a different conversation for another time

00:25:38.920 If you enjoyed this piece of premium content from the Lotus Eaters, head to our website where you can find more.

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - May 05, 2026

PREVIEW LIVE： Realpolitik #45 ｜ The End of Globalisation w⧸ Radical Liberation

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