00:00:00.000Hello, good afternoon. Welcome to another episode of RealPolitik. I am your host,
00:00:06.360Firas Mordad. And today we're going to be talking about the disasters that are heading Europe's way
00:00:12.380as the globalists decide to fight back against the rising tide of nationalism.
00:00:18.600But I'm not just going to talk to you about that. I'm also going to tie it a little bit to the
00:00:22.240Ukraine war, because the things that are happening in Ukraine look like they're going to harm the
00:00:29.040Ukrainian military quite significantly, and then you will end up in a position where Europe is
00:00:34.160insanely unstable at a time when there is an army in Ukraine defeated and demobilizing.
00:00:42.240So this is the picture that I want to paint for you today, and we will discuss it. Now,
00:00:47.880when we do another episode of Latin American geopolitics, the sombrero will be in the room
00:00:54.360with us. However, right now, since we don't have any Taras Bulba wigs that we could avail
00:01:02.440ourselves of, we will have to make do without any headgear, unfortunately. Do you want to talk about
00:01:10.440the sandpit for a few minutes before we start? Because it looks like the war in the Middle East
00:01:15.020might be resuming uh shall we spend a couple of minutes on that first uh i say let's do that let's
00:01:24.860do a couple of minutes on the middle east before we get into europe because it seems that it's
00:01:30.380important uh tucker carlson is claiming that the united states is about to nuke iran now chris
00:01:37.420murphy a senator who sits on the foreign affairs committee and therefore who is privy to um
00:01:45.020classified briefings, said that he was familiar with the American plan to restart the war
00:01:51.340and said that what was going to happen there would sort of end the rule of international law.
00:01:56.720This could have a couple of different meanings. It could mean massive waves of strikes on all
00:02:00.980kinds of civilian infrastructure, or it could mean a strike on Pickaxe Mountain where the0.61
00:02:07.840Iranians have moved some of their uranium enrichment program and possibly some of the
00:02:14.040rich uranium itself with the aim of completely destroying the facility, which might involve
00:02:20.800a nuclear weapon. The issue is this, however. Given how many hundreds of meters of granite rock
00:02:29.140that facility sits under, a nuclear detonation may not destroy it fully. A nuclear detonation
00:02:38.160over Pickaxe Mountain may or may not destroy the facility fully. And if you've reached a stage
00:02:44.220where you're just not able to go after Iran's nuclear program, then the war is kind of lost0.87
00:02:50.860already, and there is no point in continuing it. Now, it seems that Trump is talking to Netanyahu
00:02:56.520about resuming the war, and Netanyahu wants him to resume the war right after the midterms, which,
00:03:01.440as we are recording today on the 2nd of November, are scheduled for tomorrow, the 3rd of November.
00:03:06.420but it looks to me that the americans don't really have a way to get the political objectives that
00:03:13.400they want which is a change in the regime in iran or an iran that doesn't have access to a nuclear
00:03:19.300program or an iran that isn't hostile to israel that's just not going to happen and it seems that
00:03:26.580the americans don't have a way of opening the strait of hormuz which makes further bombing of0.94
00:03:32.320Iran, kind of pointless, but the alternative is to let Iran become the fourth power in the world0.75
00:03:38.160by letting it control Hormuz and 20 percent of global oil exports. That would be a disastrous0.96
00:03:44.160defeat. So the war is now going on for the sake of the war, not for any particular attainable
00:03:49.840objective, in the hope that over a long enough time frame it'll wear down the Iranians. But in0.86
00:03:56.440years time if the democrats decide not to continue the war what happens then do the israelis nuke
00:04:02.680everything in iran and then what uh it's just it's just the whole thing is unwinnable and it
00:04:09.160looks like it's going to start again and it is going to get considerably worse so i just wanted
00:04:14.280to mention that about the iran war because this time when the iranians retaliate i'm going to
00:04:20.760assume that the americans by resuming the war are going to try to destroy an enormous amount
00:04:25.720of iranian infrastructure i'm going to assume that they're not going to use a nuclear weapon
00:04:30.120but what does that mean that means that the iranians destroy an enormous amount of energy0.54
00:04:35.400infrastructure in the gulf and send the world economy tanking and already you're seeing the
00:04:41.160crashes in the stock market interest rates at historic highs uh protests everywhere in the
00:04:46.440world as a result of the growing fuel crisis this just seems like a terrible terrible thing to
00:04:53.720to continue. And I try to be an analyst on this show, not to be an advocate, not to say this is
00:05:00.700what should be done or shouldn't be done. But just the Middle East is screwed and the actual threat0.98
00:05:07.580comes from the Sunnis, not from the Shia. Let it be. A strong Iran that constrains the Sunnis0.99
00:05:13.980is actually better than this. That's what I wanted to say about the Middle East as we get ready to1.00
00:05:20.920restart the war. Let's talk about Poland and let's talk about Europe and the disasters that are0.95
00:05:26.100heading towards Europe. So as you saw on Stelios' segment today, there was an attempted constitutional
00:05:34.620coup or extra constitutional coup in Poland over the weekend. The prime minister of Poland took
00:05:42.660advantage of the president being out of the country and tried to take over the Supreme Court.
00:05:47.320I won't get into the full details of the constitutional lease and all of that stuff, but the summary of it is the president had refused to ratify some judicial appointments and said that these judicial appointments weren't legal or weren't acceptable or whatever it was.
00:06:05.000He has, in theory, a right to do that.
00:06:07.600He has a right to refuse certain appointments.
00:06:09.860The way that Poland works is that the president gets a veto, and this is down to the legacy of Poland.
00:06:15.860they don't like a very strong central state. This was always Polish tradition from the days of the0.79
00:06:24.840Polish kingdom and nobility and the Polish-Lithuanian Union. The idea behind that was always to have a
00:06:31.320very weak king and to let the barons loot the country, do whatever they want, essentially
00:06:38.240constrained the king massively. And it was this refusal to centralize power that arguably allowed
00:06:45.560the Russians and the Austro-Hungarians and the Germans to carve up Poland and destroy it as a
00:06:50.600country. They tried to correct that after World War I. It didn't work. World War II, obviously a
00:06:57.120very strong centralized communist state subject to the Soviet Union. That went badly. So after they
00:07:04.220freed themselves of communism, they reverted back to the norm of having diffused power where
00:07:10.980different centers of executive authority could contest each other and block each other. So the
00:07:17.120president being able to block things like laws and judicial appointments and decisions by parliament
00:07:23.260is actually part and parcel of the historic memory of the Polish state. It's not a new-fangled notion
00:07:31.400where the president on his own, he's deciding, you know, I will allow this, I will not allow that.
00:07:37.360So anyway, Tusk tries to take over the constitutional court, and the reaction from the public was quite severe.
00:07:47.600The supporters of the president of the Law and Justice Party, which is a conservative right-wing traditional party that wants to maintain Poland as Polish, that is a bit anti-globalist, that wants to work with the European Union because of the benefits that have accrued to Poland from being in the EU and being able to export surplus labor.
00:08:09.240they want to work with the European Union, they want to have European investments,
00:08:13.420they want to be Germany's second factory, or the second factory for German companies,
00:08:18.760but they don't want to lose their national identity, obviously. So there was a massive
00:08:24.860backlash against this attempt, because it was seen as part of an attempt by Tusk
00:08:29.140to consolidate the grip of the globalists over Poland. What do I mean by that? Well,
00:08:35.080Well, if you look at the history of this whole thing, the Polish judiciary or the liberal elements within the Polish judiciary have been trying to impose liberalism on Poland by judicial fiat for some time.
00:08:54.980And this came from the legacy of communist rule, because after communism ended in Poland, the courts were still infected with far-left thinking and with leftist thinking, which kind of continued through their years in the European Union.
00:09:14.260And then the Low and Justice Party started trying to correct that.
00:09:19.920And eventually they had a crisis with the judiciary in 2015.
00:09:25.580The PIS refused the appointments from the previous liberal government.
00:09:30.560The EU did its best to say, no, no, you're violating legal norms, and you have to respect the invalid appointments of the previous parliament, etc., etc.
00:09:43.900So that didn't work out, and the PIS managed to stop that.
00:09:49.180And the reason that the PIS objected, basically, was because among the things that were being
00:09:54.880attempted by the courts were the introduction of gay marriage through the back door, essentially.
00:10:01.840What they tried to do was say, Poland won't recognize gay marriage, however, Poland will
00:10:10.400register gay marriages that are recognized elsewhere. So if you were a pair of Polish
00:10:17.960homosexuals and you wanted to get married, you could just take a skip and a hop over the border0.87
00:10:23.860to Germany, register your marriage there, then show up in Poland, and you would be in a position
00:10:31.820to have the Polish state recognize you as married. Which, incidentally, if you look at the United
00:10:38.700States, this was the entirety of Obergefell, the 2012 or 2013 Supreme Court ruling that recognized
00:10:47.860gay marriage. The premise of that case was that one state wouldn't recognize a homosexual
00:10:54.220marriage, quote-unquote, registered in another state. And so the Supreme Court was able to step0.62
00:11:01.780in and impose it on a national level in the United States. They were playing the same playbook.
00:11:09.560It was the same with abortion. They tried to impose abortion on the courts, through the courts
00:11:15.960in Poland. They tried to say that for certain abnormalities, if there were certain birth
00:11:21.480defects that were detectable with medical scans and so on, then there would suddenly emerge a
00:11:28.960right to abortion and the ability to kill that baby. Well, we know how the slippery slope works.
00:11:36.420It is within living memory that the left in the United States, for example,
00:11:40.140was arguing that abortion should be safe, legal, and rare. It's not rare. A third of Zoomers have
00:11:49.060already been murdered before they've taken a single breath. It is anything but rare. But you
00:11:55.100introduce it and you allow it to escalate and you allow it to continue. There was a similar case
00:12:02.340with the courts where basically the legislator tried to ban ritual slaughter. In Poland, they
00:12:09.220tried to ban both kosher and halal slaughter. The judiciary stepped in and said, no, no, no,
00:12:14.520there is a right to religious slaughter. I don't know where such a right would come from,
00:12:19.060other than from recognizing other religions' divine validity, essentially. And they tried to
00:12:27.220impose, and they did impose that on Poland that way. So now you can still get halal and kosher0.94
00:12:33.740in Poland. And that is part of the drive to diversify Poland, essentially, and to keep0.92
00:12:41.680pushing diversity on Poland. And you have to think about this in a particular way. These people
00:12:46.840in the judiciary and in the EU, even if they're not officially part of the Fabian society in England,
00:12:54.360they are culturally Fabian, shall we call them. They are structurally Fabian. They recognize what
00:13:02.460a slippery slope is, what they're trying to do is to push you off of it. And if in a country like
00:13:08.340Poland that already has low birth rates, you also legalize abortion, the birth rates will collapse.0.83
00:13:14.200And then they will push for more immigration to counter it. So these people are all spiritually0.91
00:13:19.900Fabian, regardless of their official affiliation. And they're trying to get Polish society0.99
00:13:26.180accustomed to abortion, accustomed to gay marriage, accustomed to the kinds of policies0.87
00:13:31.460that have so thoroughly wrecked Western Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand,0.94
00:13:38.460the kind of policies that are so socially destructive that they undermine the religious
00:13:43.620fabric of society, they undermine the religious values of a society. And if they impose those,
00:13:50.440then obviously they can then impose multiculturalism. Because if you can kill0.99
00:13:55.160babies and this is just a sort of matter of choice, well, yeah, then everything is a matter0.96
00:13:59.660of choice, and there is no validity to a particular religious conviction, and there is no validity
00:14:04.600to a particular religious tradition. Anything goes if killing babies is permissible.0.92
00:14:11.740So you have to see it in the proper context, and you have to see this fight in the proper
00:14:16.960broader social and religious context in which it's happening. Controlling the court will allow
00:14:24.540all kinds of absurd legislation around homosexual marriages, around abortion,
00:14:33.400around multiculturalism. You will be mandated by law to pay for Hindu temples or to protect mosques0.91
00:14:41.220or whatever it is, and then that will be used against you further and further and further.
00:14:48.340That's why I insist that you want to think about liberalism and tolerance and all of these values
00:14:54.420as a sort of social aids. The purpose is to weaken your immune system by getting you accustomed to
00:15:04.420horrible things like abortion or insane fantasies like gay marriage, and from that to push other0.96
00:15:15.480horrible things on you. And you just have to look at Britain and Harry's segment today about the
00:15:21.000horrors of modern Britain to see what lies at the bottom of that slippery slope. It's a horrible
00:15:27.420thing. And underneath that, what they're trying to hide when the EU tells you, like the EU obviously
00:15:33.360is backing Tusk in this, in the attempt to remake the Polish judiciary. Of course, they're backing
00:15:38.460Tusk because he is their guy. He used to be a senior guy in the European Union. He's always
00:15:43.840been an EU puppet. He's continuing in this role. So they say that the idea is to keep law neutral
00:15:54.840and to preserve institutions and so on. But this itself is a fiction. The law isn't neutral. The
00:16:03.540law is either a teacher that is trying to bring you towards a certain set of values, that is trying
00:16:13.280to form you in a particular way, or it is a source of degeneracy by being extremely permissive,
00:16:24.520by allowing criminals to run free, by allowing crimes to be committed without being punished,
00:16:31.200such as abortion, by allowing all kinds of evils to be tolerated in society.
00:16:36.320But the law is never a neutral thing, and the law fundamentally comes from a set of religious values.
00:16:46.000What underpins law is a moral philosophy, and all moral philosophy is in one way or another religious.
00:16:56.680So the law can be permissive and allow horrid behavior, and therefore encourage these behaviors to spread,
00:17:04.880Or it can be a teacher by punishing bad behavior, maybe even rewarding good behavior, although some might find that a bit too intrusive.
00:17:16.460And then from that, try to form a superior society, improve social well-being, teach people to do what is right out of fear of just punishment.
00:17:29.920and eventually over time when you iterate this process over hundreds of years that's how you
00:17:36.420get a functional high trust society that's how you do it it is through the law that's why controlling
00:17:44.220the courts is so important and that's why the idea of legal neutrality is such a fiction
00:17:49.280the law can be neutral when you have the same legal assumptions the same moral assumptions
00:21:35.580It is very unlikely that the Germans suddenly discovered the importance of Russian gas and of Russian energy.0.60
00:21:43.120If they did, they wouldn't have committed the economic suicide involved in green energy and all of that nonsense, and in shutting down nuclear and all of that.
00:21:52.520And if they did, they would just push the EU to lift the sanctions on Russia
00:22:02.480and dare the EU to sanction its own biggest economy.
00:22:07.900Whatever the Germans want in the EU, they can get.
00:22:11.440So there is no credibility to this idea that these people are acting
00:22:15.500to try to control Poland for the sake of accessing Russian energy.
00:22:20.600I don't buy it for a second. A lot more likely, a lot more likely, is that they want to do to Poland what they did to Hungary, which is run people like Tusk or like Magyar in Hungary on a kind of right-wing platform, and then once they are in power, slowly dismantle any right-wing agenda that they might have had.
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