The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters

00:00:00.160 Hello, welcome to a new episode of RealPolitik. I am your host, Firas Mardad, back from a bit of a break in Lebanon.

00:00:09.320 And I thought that I would start with an update on where we are with the wars in the Middle East,

00:00:15.260 what Israel is trying to achieve, what are the limitations, and what does it mean if you are in Europe.

00:00:22.300 So I'd like to start these things with a map.

00:00:25.160 So we have here a map of Israel showing us a little bit about where the fighting is and what's happening.

00:00:33.560 And the first area of focus, obviously, should be Gaza, where the Israelis are trying to capture the city of Gaza itself.

00:00:45.640 They've captured the towns around Gaza City, here in the middle, and they've isolated Gaza itself. 0.85

00:00:55.840 They're trying to force a million civilians to evacuate, but according to the Israelis' own numbers, they say that only 10,000 have left.

00:01:05.240 So they're going to try to conquer this territory, this very small area, a few square kilometers, really,

00:01:13.580 which has a million people in it still, 990,000, according to the Israelis.

00:01:20.820 This is going to be an incredible challenge.

00:01:24.480 So why are the Israelis trying to do this? 1.00

00:01:26.500 Well, the first reason is, unless they take territory from Hamas and destroy their infrastructure thoroughly 0.77

00:01:35.360 and clear areas and expel the Palestinians from them, they can't say that they've won. 0.78

00:01:42.120 The problem is that with so many civilians there, it's going to be quite a challenge.

00:01:48.360 The second reason is because the Israelis are saying that they want to force at least a big part of the residents of Gaza to leave the area entirely.

00:01:59.280 Go where? That's a big question.

00:02:02.180 Probable answers are Europe, the West, the Anglosphere in general, Egypt, but Egypt absolutely doesn't want to take part in it,

00:02:11.480 and we'll touch on that in a minute.

00:02:12.960 But the idea is to take this city completely because of its proximity to other important Israeli towns like Sderot and Ashdod,

00:02:28.860 where Hamas being able to position itself there allows it to fire rockets at Israel.

00:02:35.540 Hamas hasn't been firing rockets for a while, but if they ever recover, they will rebuild and they will resume that. 0.98

00:02:42.960 The problem that's facing Israel is that for the last 30 years, ever since the 1982 invasion of Lebanon,

00:02:56.640 they haven't won any wars decisively.

00:03:00.260 So in 1982, they managed to kick the PLO out of Lebanon, but that only ended up creating Hezbollah, 0.98

00:03:06.200 and then eventually Hezbollah forced the Israelis out by the year 2000 and kind of, kind of beat them in 2006.

00:03:16.900 Since then, the Israelis haven't won anything decisively.

00:03:20.000 And the only way to win against a group like Hamas, which is a genuine reflection of the Palestinians 1.00

00:03:26.000 and of what they want to achieve, which is the elimination of Israel, obviously, 0.77

00:03:31.680 is to force these Palestinians out. 1.00

00:03:34.980 And since they're concentrated in the north and Gaza, they have to be pushed southwards. 1.00

00:03:39.660 And so the occupation of Gaza becomes politically and militarily important for Israel,

00:03:46.220 and it would allow them to settle Gaza and alleviate some of the problems that they have

00:03:53.320 with overcrowding in Israel itself by taking more territory and settling it.

00:03:58.440 Nothing says you've won more than taking the enemy's territory, forcing their population out, 1.00

00:04:05.000 and then taking control of their land, cultivating that land, putting your people there.

00:04:11.080 That's what it means to be victorious.

00:04:13.300 So this is what the Israelis are trying to achieve. 0.62

00:04:16.600 And again, there is a million people there.

00:04:21.160 How do you achieve that?

00:04:22.760 And what happens if you take this territory and a million people remain?

00:04:26.840 Well, then you haven't won.

00:04:28.440 Because when you withdraw, Hamas will rebuild itself, 0.99

00:04:32.900 it or a successor organization that's even more radical,

00:04:36.320 and it will live to fight on another day.

00:04:40.120 So the fight is really about the expulsion of the Palestinians.

00:04:44.120 And the Americans are saying that they're willing to help.

00:04:48.200 Trump said to be thinking about a plan whereby the Americans would pay $5,000 to every Palestinian

00:04:56.240 in exchange for leaving Gaza, in theory, temporarily.

00:05:00.380 If they leave temporarily, we all know that they're never going to be allowed back.

00:05:05.720 There is no such thing as temporary displacement when it comes to Israel.

00:05:11.440 The Palestinians who were expelled in 1948 were not allowed back.

00:05:14.700 The ones who were expelled in 1967 were not allowed back.

00:05:17.580 And these guys in 2025 will not be allowed back either.

00:05:22.700 But the Americans are supposed to be weighing this plan to try to get rid of a quarter of the Palestinians.

00:05:31.860 So 2.3 million people, you're dealing with half a million in change,

00:05:37.120 six, seven hundred thousand people that would be expelled under the Americans' plan.

00:05:41.480 Why would the Americans help with this?

00:05:45.360 Well, I want to take a minute here to play a video of Benjamin Netanyahu

00:05:50.200 explaining his own views of why the Americans end up obeying Israel.

00:05:58.440 Let's take a second to watch it.

00:06:00.120 The world won't say a thing.

00:06:29.260 This is Netanyahu speaking in 2001 about his plans to retake the West Bank.

00:06:35.600 And his view is that the world won't say a thing because, essentially,

00:06:39.680 especially today with America, I know what America is, says Netanyahu.

00:06:44.220 America is something that can easily be moved to the right direction.

00:06:54.840 So Israeli thinking is that, basically, they can influence American foreign policy to an enormous extent.

00:07:04.020 And this was said in 2001, and this is still Netanyahu's view.

00:07:09.000 And his main claim to power is that he can influence the Americans and get them to back any Israeli project that he wants.

00:07:17.500 And in this case, he wants the displacement of the Palestinians.

00:07:22.060 And the Americans are saying, well, okay, we're going to pay for that, essentially, and facilitate it,

00:07:29.780 and maybe take control of Gaza for 10 years, according to President Trump.

00:07:35.740 And that will solve the problem.

00:07:38.240 The issue is that it won't.

00:07:40.920 Even if you take 600,000 or 700,000 Palestinians, and then 1.5 million Palestinians remain in Gaza,

00:07:46.660 firstly, in 10 years' time, the numbers will have gone back to what they were because of the high Palestinian birth rate.

00:07:53.680 And secondly, it would mean that another war is inevitable.

00:07:57.320 So the problem facing the Israelis is this.

00:08:01.800 After 7 October, it became understood by the Israelis that at any point,

00:08:08.400 the Palestinians can just conduct massive attacks against Israeli civilians 0.92

00:08:12.960 that show that Israel is not a safe haven for the Jewish people,

00:08:17.820 which undermines the very claim to legitimacy that Israel has in the eyes of other Jews,

00:08:27.440 not just in the eyes of Westerners.

00:08:29.740 Jewish support for Israel is predicated on the idea that Israel is there to protect the Jews.

00:08:36.440 And if Israel can't defend itself and can't win decisively,

00:08:41.100 then Israel is not a credible solution to the Jewish question.

00:08:44.820 That's really the importance of it.

00:08:48.500 And so if October 7, if the consequences of October 7 don't include the mass displacement

00:08:56.740 of the Palestinians of Gaza and their permanent expulsion,

00:09:01.060 then in a way the Israelis would have lost.

00:09:04.760 Because what it would mean is that in 5 years' time or 10 years' time or 20 years' time,

00:09:09.740 there would be another similar attack against Israel,

00:09:13.300 and this time the attack would be better coordinated.

00:09:17.980 And rather than just emanating from Gaza itself,

00:09:20.880 it would come from Gaza and the West Bank and possibly Lebanon or Syria,

00:09:26.180 and it would mean essentially a strategic disaster for the Israelis.

00:09:30.760 And you have no reason to rebuild the territory that is in very close proximity

00:09:36.720 to the Palestinians or to Hezbollah if you are guaranteed that in a few years' time, 0.59

00:09:44.400 a similar attack to October 7 would happen,

00:09:47.400 along with the massive destruction of Israeli properties and lives, 0.68

00:09:51.900 including innocent civilian lives.

00:09:53.760 So this is the fear that's animating Israel, 0.51

00:09:56.760 that if they don't win decisively, that is as good as being defeated.

00:10:03.600 And the issue is that so long as these million Palestinians remain in Gaza City here, 1.00

00:10:10.780 even if Israeli tanks march up and down Gaza City,

00:10:16.960 it's still not a victory.

00:10:18.820 Because eventually there will be low-level resistance

00:10:22.160 against Israeli armor and personnel,

00:10:25.460 and the Israelis will be forced to sort of evacuate the most densely populated areas,

00:10:31.040 and then these densely populated areas will become a hotbed for resistance,

00:10:35.920 and then there will be another series of attacks.

00:10:39.060 So the logic of the conflict is genocidal.

00:10:44.260 And I want to emphasize that it's genocidal on both sides.

00:10:48.140 It's genocidal on the Israeli side, and it's genocidal on the Palestinian side. 1.00

00:10:52.800 Because the one conclusion of the various attempts at peace is,

00:10:58.280 no, there cannot be peace.

00:11:00.380 This is a state of permanent war.

00:11:03.920 And what's happening now is that the current leadership of Israel

00:11:08.260 fundamentally buys into this.

00:11:11.260 So the most influential politicians today in Israel

00:11:16.440 are Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister,

00:11:22.180 and Bezal S. Motrich, the finance minister.

00:11:26.880 And the finance minister is obviously one of the most important people in any cabinet.

00:11:31.320 It's the treasury, essentially.

00:11:34.120 And so these guys are full-on followers of Meir Kahane.

00:11:41.100 Kahane was a rabbi who was eventually assassinated by an Egyptian guy in the 1990s.

00:11:49.460 His whole premise was that all of the Palestinians in the West Bank,

00:11:56.560 in 1948, Israel proper, in Gaza, and even around it,

00:12:02.160 in areas like South Lebanon, South Syria, parts of Jordan,

00:12:07.460 all of these Arabs must be completely expelled. 1.00

00:12:10.020 And this territory must be governed by Israel 0.99

00:12:13.340 because the conflict is endless.

00:12:17.180 So essentially, this is the logic of greater Israel. 0.88

00:12:20.180 This is the logic of permanent expansionism,

00:12:22.840 which means that the peace treaties between Israel and Jordan and Egypt

00:12:28.240 are more or less irrelevant

00:12:30.000 because these guys are certain that eventually there's going to be a bigger war.

00:12:35.440 And the way to prepare for that war is to expand today

00:12:40.980 and expel more and more Palestinians 1.00

00:12:43.680 so that Israel would eventually be safe.

00:12:48.920 And the logic of Netanyahu is,

00:12:52.020 okay, I'm the guy who can deliver American and Western support

00:12:57.220 and ensure that the world says nothing

00:13:00.300 as we try to achieve this objective.

00:13:02.600 So we have Netanyahu recently saying

00:13:06.240 that he is spiritually committed

00:13:12.080 to the mission of a greater Israel.

00:13:15.780 And a greater Israel would include 0.97

00:13:18.220 not just the West Bank and Gaza

00:13:22.500 and the Golan Heights in Syria,

00:13:24.880 but it would include parts of the Sinai Peninsula

00:13:29.160 and expanded part of the Sinai.

00:13:31.140 It would include parts of the east bank of the Jordan River,

00:13:36.900 so getting close to the highlands of Jordan

00:13:39.500 in this area that I'm trying to scroll over with my mouse.

00:13:44.060 It would include more parts of southern Syria

00:13:48.200 and parts of southern Lebanon,

00:13:50.520 basically to create a Liebenstraum for the Israelis.

00:13:53.940 The biblical land of Israel that these guys envision

00:13:58.820 extends from the Euphrates River to the Nile.

00:14:05.480 So it's an even bigger area that includes a lot more territory.

00:14:09.900 And the way that Netanyahu says that he's thinking about this

00:14:13.580 is that it's a generational project

00:14:17.280 with the generation that built the state of Israel

00:14:20.520 being responsible for merely establishing the state

00:14:24.420 and him being responsible

00:14:26.940 to expanding it to the West Bank and to Gaza

00:14:31.180 and possibly South Lebanon

00:14:33.060 and the parts that they've captured from Syria

00:14:35.220 and then continuing with that expansion

00:14:38.640 until the dream of a biblical Israel is achieved.

00:14:45.180 That's the logic that's really driving Netanyahu right now.

00:14:49.380 And if this fails

00:14:52.980 and we end up basically with the same borders of Israel

00:14:58.520 or with very mildly adjusted borders

00:15:02.040 with Hezbollah in Lebanon

00:15:05.400 and various Sunni groups in the West Bank

00:15:08.640 and in Gaza and in Syria

00:15:10.080 all willing to challenge Israel, 0.73

00:15:13.200 then that guarantees there's going to be a future war

00:15:16.640 and that means that

00:15:18.700 why should people come and settle

00:15:21.860 in the land of Israel?

00:15:23.900 Why should there more Jews move into Israel? 1.00

00:15:28.960 It's going to end in disaster for them anyway.

00:15:32.140 So the threat here as perceived by the Israelis is existential.

00:15:37.900 And for Hamas and the Palestinians, 1.00

00:15:41.080 including the ones in the West Bank

00:15:44.240 who don't necessarily support Hamas,

00:15:46.640 and including the ones in Gaza

00:15:48.260 who are turned off by Hamas' failure to defend them,

00:15:53.080 it's the same logic.

00:15:55.060 If they leave,

00:15:57.220 then they won't just be leaving to some country nearby.

00:16:00.820 They're going to be chased out of the region entirely.

00:16:06.020 And if you're Egypt and if you're Jordan,

00:16:08.040 you're terrified by this possibility

00:16:09.780 because if you can't,

00:16:12.360 if the Israelis can't force the Palestinians 1.00

00:16:14.420 to get on airplanes and leave,

00:16:16.860 then really the only way to go

00:16:19.040 is to attack the border with Egypt 0.99

00:16:22.280 and force march the Palestinians 0.99

00:16:27.520 out of Gaza and into the Sinai

00:16:30.560 until they get to Egypt proper.

00:16:33.260 It will be a humanitarian disaster,

00:16:35.280 it will be a humanitarian disaster, obviously.

00:16:37.480 It will be comparable to the Armenian genocide 0.90

00:16:39.980 where the Turks and their Kurdish allies 0.96

00:16:42.820 made the Armenians march basically 0.93

00:16:46.040 from all over Anatolia

00:16:48.560 and from all over the border regions of Turkey

00:16:54.080 all the way through Syria and into Lebanon.

00:16:56.620 Yes, it will be quite similar.

00:16:59.720 One and a half million people died there.

00:17:02.380 That's what it would require.

00:17:04.700 So what the Israelis are trying to achieve 0.99

00:17:06.580 with Western support is pretty extreme,

00:17:10.620 shall we say.

00:17:11.300 It hasn't happened at this scale in the last century.

00:17:14.460 The only comparable thing is the expulsion

00:17:16.680 of the Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh,

00:17:20.360 which is contested with Azerbaijan in 2022,

00:17:25.260 where a couple of hundred thousand people

00:17:27.060 were forced out of their homes,

00:17:28.700 but nowhere near the scale.

00:17:31.260 Here you're dealing with 2.3 million people in Gaza

00:17:35.660 and another 4 million people in the West Bank.

00:17:39.480 But that's very much the Kahanist objective. 1.00

00:17:44.120 And the guys who are in charge

00:17:46.000 of a lot of decision-making in Israel

00:17:47.680 share this view

00:17:48.860 and do believe that this is the only way

00:17:51.680 to resolve the conflict

00:17:52.920 between themselves and the Palestinians. 0.78

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00:17:58.820 from the Lotus Eaters,

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PREVIEW： Realpolitik #10 ｜ The Greater Israel

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