The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - September 03, 2025


PREVIEW： Realpolitik #10 ｜ The Greater Israel


Episode Stats


Length

18 minutes

Words per minute

130.9867

Word count

2,363

Sentence count

113

Harmful content

Toxicity

4

sentences flagged

Hate speech

34

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Firas Mardad is back from a break in Lebanon and talks about the latest Israeli offensive in Gaza, the limitations of the Israeli offensive, and what Israel is trying to achieve in order to achieve its goals in the Middle East.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.160 Hello, welcome to a new episode of RealPolitik. I am your host, Firas Mardad, back from a bit of a break in Lebanon.
00:00:09.320 And I thought that I would start with an update on where we are with the wars in the Middle East,
00:00:15.260 what Israel is trying to achieve, what are the limitations, and what does it mean if you are in Europe.
00:00:22.300 So I'd like to start these things with a map.
00:00:25.160 So we have here a map of Israel showing us a little bit about where the fighting is and what's happening.
00:00:33.560 And the first area of focus, obviously, should be Gaza, where the Israelis are trying to capture the city of Gaza itself.
00:00:45.640 They've captured the towns around Gaza City, here in the middle, and they've isolated Gaza itself. 0.85
00:00:55.840 They're trying to force a million civilians to evacuate, but according to the Israelis' own numbers, they say that only 10,000 have left.
00:01:05.240 So they're going to try to conquer this territory, this very small area, a few square kilometers, really,
00:01:13.580 which has a million people in it still, 990,000, according to the Israelis.
00:01:20.820 This is going to be an incredible challenge.
00:01:24.480 So why are the Israelis trying to do this? 1.00
00:01:26.500 Well, the first reason is, unless they take territory from Hamas and destroy their infrastructure thoroughly 0.77
00:01:35.360 and clear areas and expel the Palestinians from them, they can't say that they've won. 0.78
00:01:42.120 The problem is that with so many civilians there, it's going to be quite a challenge.
00:01:48.360 The second reason is because the Israelis are saying that they want to force at least a big part of the residents of Gaza to leave the area entirely.
00:01:59.280 Go where? That's a big question.
00:02:02.180 Probable answers are Europe, the West, the Anglosphere in general, Egypt, but Egypt absolutely doesn't want to take part in it,
00:02:11.480 and we'll touch on that in a minute.
00:02:12.960 But the idea is to take this city completely because of its proximity to other important Israeli towns like Sderot and Ashdod,
00:02:28.860 where Hamas being able to position itself there allows it to fire rockets at Israel.
00:02:35.540 Hamas hasn't been firing rockets for a while, but if they ever recover, they will rebuild and they will resume that. 0.98
00:02:42.960 The problem that's facing Israel is that for the last 30 years, ever since the 1982 invasion of Lebanon,
00:02:56.640 they haven't won any wars decisively.
00:03:00.260 So in 1982, they managed to kick the PLO out of Lebanon, but that only ended up creating Hezbollah, 0.98
00:03:06.200 and then eventually Hezbollah forced the Israelis out by the year 2000 and kind of, kind of beat them in 2006.
00:03:16.900 Since then, the Israelis haven't won anything decisively.
00:03:20.000 And the only way to win against a group like Hamas, which is a genuine reflection of the Palestinians 1.00
00:03:26.000 and of what they want to achieve, which is the elimination of Israel, obviously, 0.77
00:03:31.680 is to force these Palestinians out. 1.00
00:03:34.980 And since they're concentrated in the north and Gaza, they have to be pushed southwards. 1.00
00:03:39.660 And so the occupation of Gaza becomes politically and militarily important for Israel,
00:03:46.220 and it would allow them to settle Gaza and alleviate some of the problems that they have
00:03:53.320 with overcrowding in Israel itself by taking more territory and settling it.
00:03:58.440 Nothing says you've won more than taking the enemy's territory, forcing their population out, 1.00
00:04:05.000 and then taking control of their land, cultivating that land, putting your people there.
00:04:11.080 That's what it means to be victorious.
00:04:13.300 So this is what the Israelis are trying to achieve. 0.62
00:04:16.600 And again, there is a million people there.
00:04:21.160 How do you achieve that?
00:04:22.760 And what happens if you take this territory and a million people remain?
00:04:26.840 Well, then you haven't won.
00:04:28.440 Because when you withdraw, Hamas will rebuild itself, 0.99
00:04:32.900 it or a successor organization that's even more radical,
00:04:36.320 and it will live to fight on another day.
00:04:40.120 So the fight is really about the expulsion of the Palestinians.
00:04:44.120 And the Americans are saying that they're willing to help.
00:04:48.200 Trump said to be thinking about a plan whereby the Americans would pay $5,000 to every Palestinian
00:04:56.240 in exchange for leaving Gaza, in theory, temporarily.
00:05:00.380 If they leave temporarily, we all know that they're never going to be allowed back.
00:05:05.720 There is no such thing as temporary displacement when it comes to Israel.
00:05:11.440 The Palestinians who were expelled in 1948 were not allowed back.
00:05:14.700 The ones who were expelled in 1967 were not allowed back.
00:05:17.580 And these guys in 2025 will not be allowed back either.
00:05:22.700 But the Americans are supposed to be weighing this plan to try to get rid of a quarter of the Palestinians.
00:05:31.860 So 2.3 million people, you're dealing with half a million in change,
00:05:37.120 six, seven hundred thousand people that would be expelled under the Americans' plan.
00:05:41.480 Why would the Americans help with this?
00:05:45.360 Well, I want to take a minute here to play a video of Benjamin Netanyahu
00:05:50.200 explaining his own views of why the Americans end up obeying Israel.
00:05:58.440 Let's take a second to watch it.
00:06:00.120 The world won't say a thing.
00:06:29.260 This is Netanyahu speaking in 2001 about his plans to retake the West Bank.
00:06:35.600 And his view is that the world won't say a thing because, essentially,
00:06:39.680 especially today with America, I know what America is, says Netanyahu.
00:06:44.220 America is something that can easily be moved to the right direction.
00:06:54.840 So Israeli thinking is that, basically, they can influence American foreign policy to an enormous extent.
00:07:04.020 And this was said in 2001, and this is still Netanyahu's view.
00:07:09.000 And his main claim to power is that he can influence the Americans and get them to back any Israeli project that he wants.
00:07:17.500 And in this case, he wants the displacement of the Palestinians.
00:07:22.060 And the Americans are saying, well, okay, we're going to pay for that, essentially, and facilitate it,
00:07:29.780 and maybe take control of Gaza for 10 years, according to President Trump.
00:07:35.740 And that will solve the problem.
00:07:38.240 The issue is that it won't.
00:07:40.920 Even if you take 600,000 or 700,000 Palestinians, and then 1.5 million Palestinians remain in Gaza,
00:07:46.660 firstly, in 10 years' time, the numbers will have gone back to what they were because of the high Palestinian birth rate.
00:07:53.680 And secondly, it would mean that another war is inevitable.
00:07:57.320 So the problem facing the Israelis is this.
00:08:01.800 After 7 October, it became understood by the Israelis that at any point,
00:08:08.400 the Palestinians can just conduct massive attacks against Israeli civilians 0.92
00:08:12.960 that show that Israel is not a safe haven for the Jewish people,
00:08:17.820 which undermines the very claim to legitimacy that Israel has in the eyes of other Jews,
00:08:27.440 not just in the eyes of Westerners.
00:08:29.740 Jewish support for Israel is predicated on the idea that Israel is there to protect the Jews.
00:08:36.440 And if Israel can't defend itself and can't win decisively,
00:08:41.100 then Israel is not a credible solution to the Jewish question.
00:08:44.820 That's really the importance of it.
00:08:48.500 And so if October 7, if the consequences of October 7 don't include the mass displacement
00:08:56.740 of the Palestinians of Gaza and their permanent expulsion,
00:09:01.060 then in a way the Israelis would have lost.
00:09:04.760 Because what it would mean is that in 5 years' time or 10 years' time or 20 years' time,
00:09:09.740 there would be another similar attack against Israel,
00:09:13.300 and this time the attack would be better coordinated.
00:09:17.980 And rather than just emanating from Gaza itself,
00:09:20.880 it would come from Gaza and the West Bank and possibly Lebanon or Syria,
00:09:26.180 and it would mean essentially a strategic disaster for the Israelis.
00:09:30.760 And you have no reason to rebuild the territory that is in very close proximity
00:09:36.720 to the Palestinians or to Hezbollah if you are guaranteed that in a few years' time, 0.59
00:09:44.400 a similar attack to October 7 would happen,
00:09:47.400 along with the massive destruction of Israeli properties and lives, 0.68
00:09:51.900 including innocent civilian lives.
00:09:53.760 So this is the fear that's animating Israel, 0.51
00:09:56.760 that if they don't win decisively, that is as good as being defeated.
00:10:03.600 And the issue is that so long as these million Palestinians remain in Gaza City here, 1.00
00:10:10.780 even if Israeli tanks march up and down Gaza City,
00:10:16.960 it's still not a victory.
00:10:18.820 Because eventually there will be low-level resistance
00:10:22.160 against Israeli armor and personnel,
00:10:25.460 and the Israelis will be forced to sort of evacuate the most densely populated areas,
00:10:31.040 and then these densely populated areas will become a hotbed for resistance,
00:10:35.920 and then there will be another series of attacks.
00:10:39.060 So the logic of the conflict is genocidal.
00:10:44.260 And I want to emphasize that it's genocidal on both sides.
00:10:48.140 It's genocidal on the Israeli side, and it's genocidal on the Palestinian side. 1.00
00:10:52.800 Because the one conclusion of the various attempts at peace is,
00:10:58.280 no, there cannot be peace.
00:11:00.380 This is a state of permanent war.
00:11:03.920 And what's happening now is that the current leadership of Israel
00:11:08.260 fundamentally buys into this.
00:11:11.260 So the most influential politicians today in Israel
00:11:16.440 are Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister,
00:11:22.180 and Bezal S. Motrich, the finance minister.
00:11:26.880 And the finance minister is obviously one of the most important people in any cabinet.
00:11:31.320 It's the treasury, essentially.
00:11:34.120 And so these guys are full-on followers of Meir Kahane.
00:11:41.100 Kahane was a rabbi who was eventually assassinated by an Egyptian guy in the 1990s.
00:11:49.460 His whole premise was that all of the Palestinians in the West Bank,
00:11:56.560 in 1948, Israel proper, in Gaza, and even around it,
00:12:02.160 in areas like South Lebanon, South Syria, parts of Jordan,
00:12:07.460 all of these Arabs must be completely expelled. 1.00
00:12:10.020 And this territory must be governed by Israel 0.99
00:12:13.340 because the conflict is endless.
00:12:17.180 So essentially, this is the logic of greater Israel. 0.88
00:12:20.180 This is the logic of permanent expansionism,
00:12:22.840 which means that the peace treaties between Israel and Jordan and Egypt
00:12:28.240 are more or less irrelevant
00:12:30.000 because these guys are certain that eventually there's going to be a bigger war.
00:12:35.440 And the way to prepare for that war is to expand today
00:12:40.980 and expel more and more Palestinians 1.00
00:12:43.680 so that Israel would eventually be safe.
00:12:48.920 And the logic of Netanyahu is,
00:12:52.020 okay, I'm the guy who can deliver American and Western support
00:12:57.220 and ensure that the world says nothing
00:13:00.300 as we try to achieve this objective.
00:13:02.600 So we have Netanyahu recently saying
00:13:06.240 that he is spiritually committed
00:13:12.080 to the mission of a greater Israel.
00:13:15.780 And a greater Israel would include 0.97
00:13:18.220 not just the West Bank and Gaza
00:13:22.500 and the Golan Heights in Syria,
00:13:24.880 but it would include parts of the Sinai Peninsula
00:13:29.160 and expanded part of the Sinai.
00:13:31.140 It would include parts of the east bank of the Jordan River,
00:13:36.900 so getting close to the highlands of Jordan
00:13:39.500 in this area that I'm trying to scroll over with my mouse.
00:13:44.060 It would include more parts of southern Syria
00:13:48.200 and parts of southern Lebanon,
00:13:50.520 basically to create a Liebenstraum for the Israelis.
00:13:53.940 The biblical land of Israel that these guys envision
00:13:58.820 extends from the Euphrates River to the Nile.
00:14:05.480 So it's an even bigger area that includes a lot more territory.
00:14:09.900 And the way that Netanyahu says that he's thinking about this
00:14:13.580 is that it's a generational project
00:14:17.280 with the generation that built the state of Israel
00:14:20.520 being responsible for merely establishing the state
00:14:24.420 and him being responsible
00:14:26.940 to expanding it to the West Bank and to Gaza
00:14:31.180 and possibly South Lebanon
00:14:33.060 and the parts that they've captured from Syria
00:14:35.220 and then continuing with that expansion
00:14:38.640 until the dream of a biblical Israel is achieved.
00:14:45.180 That's the logic that's really driving Netanyahu right now.
00:14:49.380 And if this fails
00:14:52.980 and we end up basically with the same borders of Israel
00:14:58.520 or with very mildly adjusted borders
00:15:02.040 with Hezbollah in Lebanon
00:15:05.400 and various Sunni groups in the West Bank
00:15:08.640 and in Gaza and in Syria
00:15:10.080 all willing to challenge Israel, 0.73
00:15:13.200 then that guarantees there's going to be a future war
00:15:16.640 and that means that
00:15:18.700 why should people come and settle
00:15:21.860 in the land of Israel?
00:15:23.900 Why should there more Jews move into Israel? 1.00
00:15:28.960 It's going to end in disaster for them anyway.
00:15:32.140 So the threat here as perceived by the Israelis is existential.
00:15:37.900 And for Hamas and the Palestinians, 1.00
00:15:41.080 including the ones in the West Bank
00:15:44.240 who don't necessarily support Hamas,
00:15:46.640 and including the ones in Gaza
00:15:48.260 who are turned off by Hamas' failure to defend them,
00:15:53.080 it's the same logic.
00:15:55.060 If they leave,
00:15:57.220 then they won't just be leaving to some country nearby.
00:16:00.820 They're going to be chased out of the region entirely.
00:16:06.020 And if you're Egypt and if you're Jordan,
00:16:08.040 you're terrified by this possibility
00:16:09.780 because if you can't,
00:16:12.360 if the Israelis can't force the Palestinians 1.00
00:16:14.420 to get on airplanes and leave,
00:16:16.860 then really the only way to go
00:16:19.040 is to attack the border with Egypt 0.99
00:16:22.280 and force march the Palestinians 0.99
00:16:27.520 out of Gaza and into the Sinai
00:16:30.560 until they get to Egypt proper.
00:16:33.260 It will be a humanitarian disaster,
00:16:35.280 it will be a humanitarian disaster, obviously.
00:16:37.480 It will be comparable to the Armenian genocide 0.90
00:16:39.980 where the Turks and their Kurdish allies 0.96
00:16:42.820 made the Armenians march basically 0.93
00:16:46.040 from all over Anatolia
00:16:48.560 and from all over the border regions of Turkey
00:16:54.080 all the way through Syria and into Lebanon.
00:16:56.620 Yes, it will be quite similar.
00:16:59.720 One and a half million people died there.
00:17:02.380 That's what it would require.
00:17:04.700 So what the Israelis are trying to achieve 0.99
00:17:06.580 with Western support is pretty extreme,
00:17:10.620 shall we say.
00:17:11.300 It hasn't happened at this scale in the last century.
00:17:14.460 The only comparable thing is the expulsion
00:17:16.680 of the Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh,
00:17:20.360 which is contested with Azerbaijan in 2022,
00:17:25.260 where a couple of hundred thousand people
00:17:27.060 were forced out of their homes,
00:17:28.700 but nowhere near the scale.
00:17:31.260 Here you're dealing with 2.3 million people in Gaza
00:17:35.660 and another 4 million people in the West Bank.
00:17:39.480 But that's very much the Kahanist objective. 1.00
00:17:44.120 And the guys who are in charge
00:17:46.000 of a lot of decision-making in Israel
00:17:47.680 share this view
00:17:48.860 and do believe that this is the only way
00:17:51.680 to resolve the conflict
00:17:52.920 between themselves and the Palestinians. 0.78
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