The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - November 10, 2025


PREVIEW： Realpolitik #20 ｜ Colour Revolution in the USA with Mike Shelby


Episode Stats

Length

17 minutes

Words per Minute

172.90474

Word Count

3,032

Sentence Count

192

Hate Speech Sentences

5


Summary

Mike Shelby is a veteran of the U.S. Army, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, and is the founder of Forward Observer, a group that focuses on the anti-fascist movement in the United States and around the world. In this episode, he talks about the origins of Antifa, how they came to be, and how they plan to disrupt the Trump administration.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hello and welcome to another episode of RealPolitik. This is a special episode. I am
00:00:06.020 joined today by Mike Shelby, who is a veteran of the American army in the intelligence. He's
00:00:14.620 operated in Iraq and in Afghanistan, has a lot of experience in the field. He's also the founder
00:00:20.700 of Forward Observer. And over the last few years, he's really built himself up as a very astute
00:00:26.860 analyst of what the American left is doing, what Antifa is working on, the plans that they have to
00:00:33.780 try to disrupt the Trump administration. I want to talk to him about all of that. And I also want to
00:00:40.020 get some insights from him on how this applies to the United Kingdom and to other parts of the world
00:00:46.140 that are really seeing the same kind of leftist agitation that is intended to keep the far left
00:00:53.520 or the ideologues of the far left in power for as long as possible. Mike, thank you so much for
00:01:00.500 joining me. How are you? Hey, I'm doing well. Thank you for the opportunity. My pleasure. My pleasure.
00:01:07.100 I noticed you on X, you tweet on the gray zone, if I'm not mistaken. And you've had a bunch of insights
00:01:16.240 insights on what Antifa is and how it's operating. Every time we talk about this, the left claims that
00:01:24.280 actually Antifa is an idea, not an organization. Can you tell me a little bit about that?
00:01:33.880 Yeah, absolutely. Well, let's define what gray zone is. So there's outright war and outright peace.
00:01:40.620 And the gray zone is the space in between. So no one can say the United States is at outright war
00:01:47.080 with itself. We're definitely not at peace with ourselves. And so the gray zone is low-intensity
00:01:54.080 conflict. So these are forms of conflict or warfare that exist beneath the threshold of conventional war,
00:01:59.600 but above routine peaceful competition. And so we look at Antifa and the broader anti-fascist movement,
00:02:05.540 and it's an idea or in a concept, it's also highly organized. So it's not just an idea.
00:02:13.180 And they, at a minimum, you could say they're a violent social group. They view themselves as
00:02:18.320 revolutionaries and they talk about insurrectionary violence. And that's what they call their uprisings
00:02:24.600 from 20, you know, I mean, really kind of going back to 2015, all through 2021, you know, 2020 didn't
00:02:31.820 stop at the end of the year, continued on in some places into 2021. And so we've just seen this
00:02:37.080 most recent iteration of this insurrectionary violence that's ongoing in Portland. And so
00:02:42.900 that's where we are. And it is not a problem that's going to solve itself. They are, again,
00:02:50.140 a revolutionary group. So they win by toppling the US government.
00:02:55.360 Yeah. Yeah. When you look at Portland, you see a lot of evidence of them planning, of them having
00:03:03.940 proper cells, some leadership structures, a hierarchy, et cetera, et cetera. And I mean,
00:03:12.680 that sort of negates the point that they're just an idea, rather obviously. But their activity seems
00:03:20.500 to be, I mean, you see a lot of training in effect, and you kind of see the same tactics here in
00:03:28.580 Britain. You see them with the umbrellas, you see them with the Stonewall silence, you see them with
00:03:34.360 the very calculated, deliberate violence. And none of this is random. I mean, what is the... 2015 is
00:03:43.060 sort of when they burst into the scene, they burst onto the scene with the BLM or the initial stages of
00:03:49.360 BLM. Tell me a bit more about their way of thinking. Tell me a bit more about their training
00:03:55.920 and tell me a bit more about their financing. Sure. Well, I would say this is kind of the third
00:04:01.960 iteration of anarchist and socialist violence going back. The first iteration was in the United States,
00:04:08.880 at least, was back in the late 19-teens. And you had anarchist and socialist violence,
00:04:15.300 including they mailed basically a pipe bomb to the Attorney General Mitchell Palmer at the time.
00:04:22.080 And we deported thousands of them back to Europe. We just told these European countries,
00:04:27.180 we don't want your anarchist and socialist here, have them back. And the FBI, it took a while,
00:04:31.300 but the FBI finally defeated that iteration. And then probably a lot of people are familiar with
00:04:36.080 the 60s and into the 70s. That was the second iteration with like Students for Democratic Society
00:04:40.700 and the Weather Underground, the Symbionese Liberation Army, several others. Those finally
00:04:46.320 defeated. And now we're in the third iteration. So there is a doctrine here. These groups have
00:04:51.320 training doctrine like militaries have. They have a certain way of doing things. And there will be
00:04:57.720 localized adaptations, of course, but they have the zines that they publish and the articles that they
00:05:04.120 publish. They're fairly uniform in how they operate going down to the basic level of an Antifa group,
00:05:12.000 which is called an affinity group. And this is a group of, you know, 5, 10, 15 people somewhere
00:05:17.240 around there. And affinity groups can link together. You can be a member of several affinity groups.
00:05:22.420 And they go out and conduct direct action. So direct action for us in the military is like door
00:05:27.860 kicking. And they don't do that yet. But their direct action is direct intervention. So they'll go out
00:05:33.560 and do a black block demonstration and, or they'll go out and smash windows or start fires and just
00:05:39.800 engage in property destruction, arson, like, you know, sometimes there have been shootings here in
00:05:46.680 the United States as well, murders, homicides. And so this is why when you look at a black block
00:05:52.340 demonstration, they are fairly uniform, whether you're talking about one in Philadelphia or Portland
00:05:58.220 or Seattle or Dallas or wherever. So there is, I would say that's the first thing. There's a very
00:06:04.760 well-established training doctrine of how you do things there. It supports this theory that it is
00:06:10.240 very well organized and coordinated, especially at the lower levels.
00:06:14.220 And how influenced are they by things like seven rules for radicals and this kind of ideology that
00:06:19.460 tries to sort of, uh, keep the opponent of balance and how, how, how influenced are they by, by this
00:06:26.720 and how effective has it been really?
00:06:29.580 Well, I can't recall specifically them recommending rules for radicals, but it, it is in line with what
00:06:34.520 they want to do in terms of, of subversion and overthrowing the oppressors. You know, they want to
00:06:40.780 abolish police, abolish prisons, abolish capitalism, abolish all forms of hierarchy, which they say
00:06:45.920 is oppressive. Uh, so, but then they'll, they'll also promote manuals like, uh, Carlos, Carlos Marighella's
00:06:53.500 the, the mini manual of the urban gorilla. And it's, it's, it's really a proto insurgent movement,
00:07:00.060 uh, but very, very insurgent like, so that's the, uh, you know, there's a handful of other handbooks
00:07:06.520 that they will promote as well. And it's, it's all insurrectionary and insurgent type material.
00:07:11.440 Okay. Could you dig a little bit deeper into the, the sort of tactics that they use and
00:07:17.760 what is the purpose of these tactics? Like when they go and they sort of, um, surround
00:07:23.700 ICE vehicles, when they go and they try to burn down police stations, the objective is
00:07:29.560 genuinely the overthrow of the government and they think that will lead them on a path where
00:07:35.060 the government reacts and people radicalize or what exactly? Yeah. Well, there's a term that
00:07:42.120 it's thrown around in some, some areas called revolutionary rupture. And when we look back
00:07:47.620 to 2020, you know, they didn't happen in a vacuum and it didn't happen in its own. Uh,
00:07:52.000 that was the result. Uh, George Floyd of course was the, the trigger, but really that movement
00:07:57.960 had been building since 2015, at least 2015 is when I noticed them. And there was a white
00:08:03.760 nationalist by the name of Richard Spencer. And there were some, some other white nationalist
00:08:07.160 groups. This is kind of when the alt-right was rising in the United States. And so they
00:08:10.700 would go and directly confront them and go fight them in the streets and call and get
00:08:14.200 them de-platformed off of social media and call, uh, event venues where speeches were happening.
00:08:21.260 And early on, it was all about de-platforming and not giving any space to white nationalists
00:08:26.940 or to what eventually, you know, they would call fascists. And so that's kind of the,
00:08:30.560 still the bedrock is not giving space to any kind of fascist or right-wing organizing any
00:08:35.560 kind of reactionary style politics. And so, uh, you know, I would say that's, that's the
00:08:41.580 bedrock it. I'll be honest. I don't look at Antifa. Um, I don't actually think they're
00:08:46.620 a strategic threat to the United States. I don't think they're going to topple. I don't
00:08:51.500 think Antifa is going to topple the federal government, but they are a huge thorn in the
00:08:56.100 side of many locales. And this is something that they're trying to, they are trying to
00:09:01.260 build up to being a strategic threat. Like when we look at insurgencies, there's basically
00:09:05.660 an X and a Y axis and the X axis, the vertical axis or vertical ties. And this is how deeply
00:09:11.060 embedded a, uh, say an affinity group or any kind of, um, insurgent group is embedded into
00:09:17.660 the local community. And in a lot of these places like Portland, Portland, there is substantial
00:09:22.380 support, maybe overwhelming support for Antifa. And that's one reason why many of them don't
00:09:28.520 get arrested. Or if they do get arrested, they may spend a night in jail, but charges are
00:09:32.260 dropped or they plead down. And so that, that kind of, uh, freedom of movement and freedom
00:09:37.940 of action have, have probably has a basis in the level of support that they have in these
00:09:42.260 communities. And then there are things called horizontal ties. And this is how tied into the,
00:09:46.960 they are to other chapters across the country. And so when you have an insurgent movement,
00:09:52.160 it has vertical ties and horizontal ties, we call it an integrated insurgency. And, uh,
00:09:58.620 Antifa is not an integrated insurgency, uh, at least not yet. So I think that is a huge,
00:10:03.760 it's a vulnerability for them and it just, it makes them strategically ineffective,
00:10:07.960 but really at a local level, they are a massive nuisance and a big problem, obviously. So any
00:10:13.880 big picture, I don't look at Antifa like a, like a, a strategy, a big picture, uh, strategic
00:10:19.960 threat, but certainly they're trying to be, they're trying to grow into that.
00:10:23.460 Right. Right.
00:10:24.020 Oh, so, and so at any rate, um, I, I think there's a, you know, they, ISIS called it propaganda
00:10:29.220 by deed and several other insurgent organizations have called it similar. Uh, but basically they
00:10:34.300 go out and when they go engage in these direct action demonstrations and, and arson and property
00:10:40.380 destruction, they look at that as a form of propaganda. And so they, they do that and they
00:10:44.200 try to build their movement. So that's one reason why they continue to go out, uh, because
00:10:48.580 they, it will make the news and they will reach people with their message and they hope to build
00:10:52.940 it. It's just not been incredibly popular outside of places like Portland and Seattle
00:10:57.440 and a handful of other cities.
00:10:59.960 What do you think are the odds of them succeeding and becoming a strategic threat? And can you
00:11:05.760 talk to me a little bit about their relationship with the rest of the democratic party? Because
00:11:10.860 I think that's really where a big part of the problem is.
00:11:14.180 Hmm. Well, what I see is the democratic party, they're, they're not necessarily flying the
00:11:21.120 same flag, but they're marching in the same direction. And I really view Antifa as basically
00:11:26.180 useful idiots. They've been a cudgel used by the Democrat party against conservatives and
00:11:30.980 against right-wing organizing. And it's been at some level mutually beneficial for them. Uh,
00:11:37.960 Antifa basically foot soldiers in a sense of the Democrat party. Uh, they're politically,
00:11:43.080 they are actually opposed to each other because Antifa is a, an abolitionist and revolutionary
00:11:47.680 movement. Right. Whereas you have the establishment Democrats, they are more reformers. They want to
00:11:54.240 take over the government and, and refashion it in their image. And Antifa does not want government
00:12:00.560 at all. So they are, you could say strange bedfellows. They share some goals, but really they're
00:12:05.560 diametrically opposed at the, at the big picture strategic level. But then it hasn't stopped
00:12:10.080 Antifa from being used as a cudgel, which is essentially what they are, the useful idiots.
00:12:16.140 That's how I see it. Right. And where do they fit into, um, where does BLM fit into this?
00:12:23.340 And yeah, let's, let's start with BLM. Where does BLM fit into this?
00:12:29.060 Yeah. Well, BLM is a, or Black Lives Matter, the movement for black lives. They are a,
00:12:35.100 a separate organization, also bedfellows or co-travelers, you would say. Um, BLM has not
00:12:40.920 been very active in the past couple of years, uh, really after 2020 or so. And there's been a few
00:12:48.000 reasons for that, uh, massive corruption in BLM. And so I, I do think their, their star has faded
00:12:54.180 just a little bit. They, a couple of years ago, they spent, I don't know how much, but it was the
00:12:58.240 millions of dollars, uh, to, to rebuild their website and rebrand and kind of put a, a fresh,
00:13:03.260 happy face on BLM. And it so far has not worked. They've also so far not been involved in any of
00:13:08.120 the national protests we've seen in this country. Uh, not very active that may change as we head
00:13:13.620 closer to the midterms and, and move into next year. Uh, our midterms are in 26. Yeah. And so,
00:13:20.000 uh, yeah, BLM, I, they are a, uh, a fellow traveler, but a separate organization. They advocate,
00:13:26.120 uh, very, very similar leftist style goals. Many of them are abolitionists as well.
00:13:32.980 Meaning that they want to abolish police and abolish prisons and it's, it's social justice
00:13:38.240 and economic justice. Uh, and I, I would, I would not, I would say they hold hands in general
00:13:48.160 with the left, but, uh, they are very much their own entity and they're looking out for
00:13:52.880 their interests and not anyone else's. Right. Right. And so the protests targeting ICE,
00:13:58.880 I mean, if, when I look at those protests, um, they don't all seem to be Antifa. Some of them
00:14:05.620 seem to be just various Hispanic groups that are reacting in their own neighborhoods. Uh, some of
00:14:12.880 them seem to be a lot of horrible liberals, white liberals. Um, talk to me about the ICE protests and
00:14:20.860 talk to me about the, the, the, the, the issues around that please. And then maybe we can move to
00:14:26.420 some of the shootings that have taken place from sort of, uh, the shootings targeting ICE and your
00:14:33.100 view on how organized or centralized the actual armed violence is. Sure. So yeah, there, it's a broad
00:14:43.500 coalition. And when we, when we say the left in this country, I think a lot of people think the left
00:14:48.380 is a monolith and it's not, there are a lot of different groups and, uh, overlapping goals and,
00:14:53.700 and some are diametrically opposed to each other. So broadly, I break it up into more or less the
00:14:59.020 revolutionary left versus the establishment left. So when we look at these anti-Hist protests,
00:15:03.800 it is a coalition and you have places like Los Angeles where there are pro-Hispanic groups,
00:15:08.280 anti-immigration enforcement, pro-immigration, pro-Latino groups, or they call themselves Chicano or
00:15:15.780 whatever they're going to call themselves, but they pretty much, they are, you know, they say
00:15:19.680 everyone's a blood and soil nationalist, um, you know, at the heart of it. Um, these people at least,
00:15:25.420 so they're very much advocating for, you know, they say La Raza, like the race, there's actually
00:15:30.060 a special interest group called La Raza. And so there are a lot of those groups out here, like the
00:15:34.700 Brown Berets are, they're kind of the more or less a paramilitary Latino group. So you, you do have a
00:15:40.440 faction of them and then you do have Antifa and kind of the militant left. And then you do also
00:15:47.540 have this very much establishment movement. And there's one group in particular here in this
00:15:52.580 country, they're called Indivisible. And they are the country's largest protest organizing group.
00:15:58.860 They're kind of the, the, the big umbrella that's bringing all these various groups together into
00:16:05.800 these national days of protest. And we've had, we have had several, just a couple of weeks ago,
00:16:09.940 they, on the 18th of October, they claimed that they got 7 million protesters mobilized. I doubt,
00:16:18.520 I doubt it was 7 million. That's the no Kings protest. Correct. Yes. Yeah. No Kings 2.0. So
00:16:23.820 there was one back in June that was no Kings one and then two. And then apparently the next one,
00:16:28.300 there may be scheduling for March of next year of 2026. So yeah. And, and there, that's more of
00:16:35.040 an establishment type group, establishment Democrat, progressive type group. And who's leading it?
00:16:43.440 Well, they have two co-executive directors, Ezra Levin and Leah Greenberg. And there's,
00:16:48.680 they have a lot of institutional backing, Soros money, millions and millions of dollars. And so that's,
00:16:55.480 that's just, and just real quick, they say that they say themselves that they are not leaders,
00:17:01.360 which, which may be technically true. What they're trying to do is train leaders at the local level.
00:17:05.720 So I don't look at Indivisible and say, this is a one organization. It's really an organization of
00:17:11.140 2000 plus local chapters of Indivisible. And so they are trying to push down the leadership and logistics
00:17:19.160 and even some of the financing down to the local level. So this is not just one group. It's like 2000 groups.
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