The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - January 12, 2026


PREVIEW： Realpolitik #29 ｜ The Syrian Crisis with Kevork Almassian


Episode Stats

Length

26 minutes

Words per Minute

151.4698

Word Count

3,947

Sentence Count

219

Hate Speech Sentences

40


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hello and welcome to a new episode of RealPolitik. I am your host, Firas Maadad, and I'm joined today
00:00:06.400 by Kivork al-Masyan, who is a Syrian-Armenian from Aleppo, now obviously no longer living in
00:00:14.220 Syria for obvious reasons. And he has exceptional insights on what is happening within Syria,
00:00:21.380 how the country has been changing, what to expect in the future, and we're going to cover all of
00:00:27.280 that with him. Kivork, welcome. Thank you very much for joining me.
00:00:31.860 Firas, thank you very much for the invitation. I learned personally a lot from you from your
00:00:37.680 recent podcasts. We agree on many things and we disagree on other things, and I find that you
00:00:42.880 have fascinating insights on the region as well. Thank you, man. Thank you. Thank you. Let's just
00:00:49.060 get right into it and start with the situation in Syria now. As I know you know, we're seeing protests
00:00:56.260 protests in Sueda. We're seeing protests along the Alawite coast. What is going on and how is
00:01:03.140 the new regime dealing with the minorities in Syria? Once the regime change happened on the 8th of
00:01:12.020 December 2024, the situation in Syria was the following. The Druze community in Sueda, they were
00:01:19.240 already de facto managing their own affairs in Sueda, even under the Assad government. I mean,
00:01:25.080 the supplies of food and fuel and other basic necessities were coming through the government
00:01:31.560 routes into Sueda. But all in all, the situation in the city was out of the control of the government,
00:01:37.500 and there were weekly demonstrations against Assad, calling him illegitimate, and they don't want for
00:01:43.140 Assad to stay in power. But the situation in Sueda, let's say this de facto self-ruling situation in
00:01:52.040 Sueda was possible because they had their own armed groups. They had their own militias. They were
00:01:58.140 protecting their cities, their neighborhoods, and the Assad government didn't want to clash against
00:02:02.920 the Druze. So they let them in Sueda. So what happened after the regime changed that these weapons
00:02:08.120 were still in the hands of the Druze, and they relatively kept this relative autonomy, let's say,
00:02:14.460 in Sueda. And the same thing goes with the Kurds. The Kurds were even better equipped and better armed
00:02:20.200 and better trained, especially by the U.S. Special Forces. They have tens of thousands of forces,
00:02:25.580 mostly from the Kurds, but also you have Assyrians, Armenians, and also some of the Arab clans alongside
00:02:32.480 the SDF. So these two components of the Syrian society, let's say, they were able to preserve their
00:02:40.160 presence in their own regions and also push back against Jolani when it was necessary, because Jolani
00:02:46.400 tried to recapture some of these regions from these communities. And thanks to the weapons they had,
00:02:52.920 they defended themselves. But the situation with the Alawites was completely different,
00:02:56.520 because when the regime change happened, an order has been given to the Syrian army soldiers,
00:03:03.560 and most of these Alawites were serving in the Syrian Arab army because they didn't have their
00:03:09.520 separate militias. So they handed over their weapons voluntarily to the Jolani regime,
00:03:15.660 thinking that this will lead into some sort of reconciliation and that we could accept the
00:03:21.200 new regime and you don't target us. But what happened is, unfortunately, that even if, I would
00:03:27.340 argue, Jolani wants to stabilize the country, let's just give him the benefit of a doubt, his army,
00:03:34.300 basically, those who fought for him, mostly were al-Nusra fund. And al-Nusra is the franchise of
00:03:39.140 al-Qaeda. And the mentality of these people that when they see an Alawite, they try to humiliate him,
00:03:44.980 they try to, for example, do things that are so provocative, like stopping people on the
00:03:51.360 checkpoints, forcing them to bark. Like if you don't bark, you get killed, you know? So in my opinion,
00:03:57.140 the massacres of the Alawites happened last March because they handed over these weapons.
00:04:03.400 And the same attempt happened against the Druze in Sueda. Of course, Jolani's terror army managed to
00:04:09.400 kill hundreds of Druze Syrians. But now that the situation is different in Sueda compared to other
00:04:16.500 regions, for example, Atakya, Tartus, Jabli, Homs, Hama, there are towns and small villages in Homs and
00:04:23.080 Hama completely ethnically cleansed from the Alawites. So that is the situation overall.
00:04:28.120 After the recent attack against Alawite neighborhoods in Homs, Sheikh Ghazal Ghazal,
00:04:33.140 who is the supreme leader of the Alawites in the abroad and also inside Syria, he called for the
00:04:39.420 people to go for peaceful demonstrations. And it was peaceful. There was not a single,
00:04:45.360 not even vandalizing one tree, but they were forced to, they were faced by a big persecution
00:04:53.900 and oppression by the Jolani talks, in my opinion, which forced them to go home. But this is a positive
00:04:59.700 development in Syria that there was this wall of fear, you know, being established against
00:05:05.520 by the Jolani regime. And now that the Alawites also dare to challenge the Jolani regime, things
00:05:10.400 are changing, and this is, will have a snowball effect in the country.
00:05:16.020 Do you think it'll have a snowball effect? Or do you think that the regime will crack down harder
00:05:19.400 using sort of intelligence tactics, kidnapping leaders, arresting people who are suspected of
00:05:26.260 leading protests, killing people who are, you know, prominent in any new protest movement? Which one do
00:05:32.780 you think it's going to be?
00:05:34.240 So the Jolani regime is already arresting the people who organized these demonstrations. And
00:05:41.300 there are people playing now, especially on Facebook, from Latakia, Tartus, Jablé, and other
00:05:46.560 places, that their sons and their cousins and their fathers are being kidnapped by the Jolani regime
00:05:52.520 because they arranged these demonstrations. But if I'm saying for, if in the near future,
00:05:58.360 the Jolani regime spills blood of the Alawites again, when I listened to the last video statement
00:06:06.360 of Sheikh Ghazal Ghazal, he stopped short, like he was on the verge of calling armed rebellion against
00:06:13.640 the Jolani regime. He didn't call for an armed rebellion, but he said that our blood will burn
00:06:20.360 the ground under your feet. If you continue killing us, then there will be other options. But in this case,
00:06:27.240 the situation of the Alawites is very volatile compared to other communities, because nobody
00:06:33.400 is willing to give weapons to the Alawites. And I'm not calling for giving weapons to anyone,
00:06:38.200 because I don't know if this could lead into positive impact now if there is an armed rebellion
00:06:43.640 in the country. But I do believe that neither the Russians, nor the Iranians, nor the Americans,
00:06:50.200 nor the Israelis at the current moment are interested in giving the Alawites weapons to defend themselves.
00:06:55.160 The Alawites were one of the backbones, let's say, of the former regime. And unless there is
00:07:02.360 institutional and societal change in the Alawite community, which means that the leadership of the
00:07:09.080 Alawites say clearly, like the leadership of the Kurds and the Druze, that we are open to Israel,
00:07:15.960 we are open to America, and we no longer want to antagonize them. I think that's what they're expecting
00:07:21.160 from the Alawites before trying to support them, assist them, let's say, a tangible support. Because
00:07:28.120 for now, the Alawites are completely abandoned in the country.
00:07:31.800 No, they don't have any external allies right now. And if you want to have a military uprising,
00:07:39.240 well, you need an external patron in a country like Syria, because the Alawite community is one of the
00:07:44.520 poorer communities in Syria. It doesn't have the rich Sunni merchant class, for example.
00:07:50.360 And without significant external backing, they're not going to be able to do very much.
00:07:55.800 Indeed. This is very important, what you mentioned, Firas, that the Alawite community
00:08:04.760 is an impoverished community. And this is something, there's a big misconception about the Alawites,
00:08:10.440 especially among the people who rose against Assad, and more especially among the people who
00:08:18.760 are ruling nowadays Damascus, and the mentality. Like an Alawite for them is someone who benefited from
00:08:23.720 the Assad regime. And Alawite is someone who was leading all the aspects of life under the Assad
00:08:31.000 regime. So therefore, they have to be persecuted, right? But the Alawites were, for obvious reasons,
00:08:39.240 were forced to serve in the state, in the Syrian state, because in their regions, the economy was based
00:08:47.080 on agriculture, mostly, and services. They didn't have any factories, manufacturing, powerhouse, or
00:08:55.080 industrial zones, just like the case in Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. They were industrial zones everywhere,
00:09:01.320 except in the coastal cities. So you had, as an Alawite, you had the opportunity to work as a farmer,
00:09:11.080 or go to teaching, or go into the state. And many men chose to go into the army, for obvious reasons,
00:09:18.840 because there were some privileges and also status. I mean, men like status as well, so they go to the
00:09:23.720 military. But I would argue and say that they didn't, they didn't rule, like when they were in the army,
00:09:30.840 they didn't rule with an Alawite sect or ideology against the rest. Like all my friends served in
00:09:39.800 the military, my father served in the Syrian army. And the Sunnis, unlike what they claim nowadays,
00:09:46.600 that they were not allowed to practice their religion and all these things, those are all
00:09:50.360 misconceptions. And the Alawites didn't come and suppress the Sunni sect, saying that you cannot
00:09:56.680 practice your religion, you cannot cover your head, and you're not allowed to practice your rituals.
00:10:01.560 In the contrary, the Assad government regime, after the first uprising in the 80s of the Muslim
00:10:08.520 Brotherhood, they tried to cozy up with the Muslim Brotherhood. And they allowed them to come into the
00:10:13.240 Ba'ath Party, to the extent that we couldn't be efficient any longer in 2024, if the Ba'ath Party is
00:10:19.480 now a socialist, secular party, or it's a party for the Muslim Brotherhood. Because many, many people
00:10:27.080 joined the Ba'ath Party, they infiltrated the, let's say, the Ba'ath Party. It was a soft penetration
00:10:32.360 of the Ba'ath Party. And they changed the nature of the rule, that we reached to a point where in 2023 or
00:10:38.920 2022, Assad kicked out the Grand Mufti of Syria, Hassoun, back then, because he was not aligned with the
00:10:48.600 Muslim Brotherhood mentality. And he replaced all the authorities of the Grand Mufti and give it,
00:10:54.840 give them to the Minister of Endowment, Alaw Qaf. And he's a big time Muslim Brotherhood,
00:11:01.480 he and his son, and they opened to Saudi Arabia and to Qatar. So I think Assad played with fire,
00:11:08.840 basically, allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to entrench inside the state institution, especially
00:11:13.720 in the Ba'ath Party. And the end result was now quite clear for everyone.
00:11:18.040 No, I don't know the details of this as well as you do. But I agree that throughout his rule,
00:11:29.720 Assad's father and son made sure that there was a special place for Sunni Islam in Syria, and that they
00:11:38.280 did their best never to offend Sunni Muslim sensibilities, and that they made sure that
00:11:44.840 there were credible clerics like Bhuti, who would be able to argue from a Salafi perspective in defense
00:11:52.840 of the Syrian state. So they did make sure that Sunni Islam had a special status, and that the Constitution
00:12:02.360 in part reflected this and mentioned Islam as a religion informing state regulations. So it wasn't,
00:12:13.080 you know, they didn't try to suppress Sunni Islam. They did favor the Alawites in security appointments,
00:12:21.480 but a lot of the very senior officials were Christian and Sunni. And they played a huge role in the regime.
00:12:28.360 So the narrative that this was only an Alawite regime was always an oversimplification.
00:12:37.080 And, you know, there was still no compromise accepted by the masses who today sort of support the
00:12:46.520 the new government, which is still in its ideology fundamentally jihadi. And that's not going to change.
00:12:53.480 Yeah, if you allow me, if you allow me, I would characterize the both of the Assad
00:13:00.920 father and the son political system by political authoritarianism. And it was based on political
00:13:07.400 loyalty. If you are a Sunni Alawite Christian, and you're loyal to the regime, and you're helping the
00:13:13.160 regime, you will ascend in the hierarchy of the of the bars and the military and the security
00:13:19.240 apparatuses. But if you seriously challenged the Assad regime, you would end up in jail. Like if
00:13:26.760 I as a Christian, Armenian, Syrian, let's say challenge the Assad regime enough, they would throw
00:13:33.480 me in a dungeon. There was no exceptions. If you are an Alawite or not an Alawite, those were all,
00:13:40.840 let's say, let's put it on the side. And the economic powerhouse of Syria, this is the most important
00:13:46.360 thing that the Sunnis had the, it's not a privilege, but it was a preference. Like the Assad, both
00:13:53.880 both Assad, Assads knew that the merchants of Damascus are very important. And the industrialists
00:14:00.840 of Aleppo are even more important, right? So they supported these industrial zones and the business class,
00:14:08.040 to the extent that they had influence in the Assad government changing economic policies to serve their
00:14:15.880 interests. And the evidence for it is, 2005, Assad started opening up the markets, he started changing
00:14:23.000 from socialism into an open market country. And the guy who led this, this change was Abdullah Derdari.
00:14:32.520 Abdullah Derdari is one of the most, let's say, non-Sunni families in Syria, and he was in the UN.
00:14:41.480 Yes. And he brought it especially to lead this transition in the country, thinking that if he
00:14:48.120 enriches more, let's say, the business and the industrial class, he will gain more loyalty.
00:14:53.080 But what he did basically, the loyal base of Hafez and then at the beginning of Bashar were in the rural
00:15:00.040 areas, because under the socialist rule, they were supporting the rural areas and the suburbs and uplifting
00:15:07.480 their social status and supporting the peasants, the farmers, and also the small businesses.
00:15:13.800 And then Bashar came and started changing that into an open market society. And all the grievances
00:15:19.800 happened now in the rural areas where the most loyal Baas party members were. That's why the revolt,
00:15:27.000 the under-armed insurgency, started mostly in the rural areas because of this, because people didn't have
00:15:34.120 any longer job opportunities in the rural areas as they were coming to the cities. If you don't study
00:15:39.720 banking, if you don't study marketing, if you don't work in the PR, human resources, and all these
00:15:46.440 things that nowadays we think those are the major jobs, let's say, in the West, then you wouldn't find
00:15:53.080 a working opportunity in the rural areas. And what happens to the sons and the grandsons of the farmers?
00:15:59.720 They are neglected. And that's why many of the outside forces, let's say, they knew the situation
00:16:05.960 very well in Syria. They capitalized on it and they injected these sectarian sentiments instead of
00:16:11.800 telling them he impoverished you because of the economic policies. No, they told them he impoverished
00:16:17.800 you because you're a Sunni. Now you have to fight for your survival. And that's the easiest way to provoke
00:16:23.080 the people to carry arms, unfortunately, in our region.
00:16:25.720 Yes, no, absolutely correct. And I think the point that you made that Bashar al-Assad came with an
00:16:33.640 economic liberalization plan. I mean, first there was a political liberalization plan and the Damascus
00:16:39.000 Spring. And this pretty much ended as the planning for the Iraq invasion became more serious. And as Colin
00:16:48.360 Powell went to Damascus, the American Secretary of State at the time went to Damascus and threatened Bashar
00:16:55.320 that they would overthrow him next, essentially. So this killed the political liberalization.
00:17:00.680 But the economic liberalization continued.
00:17:03.880 And it was done in partnership with Sunni economic forces, largely.
00:17:09.480 Because Hafez had favored the Sunni economic forces. And after the initial land reforms and changes of
00:17:18.920 that nature that happened under the Ba'ath, he reconciled with the Sunni merchant class and partnered
00:17:24.360 with them. There was corruption involved in that if your business grew, you had to involve the security
00:17:30.680 forces or people high up in the regime in your business and make sure that they took a cut.
00:17:37.240 But this is sort of the standard in all of the Middle East. This wasn't because he was an Alawite.
00:17:42.440 This is what happens all over the Middle East. In Lebanon, if you want to do business in the
00:17:47.560 Druze areas, you have to pay Walu Jumblat. In the Christian areas, you have to pay so-and-so.
00:17:51.560 In the Shia areas, you have to pay Birri, etc., etc. So this is the standard operating procedure for the
00:17:58.520 region. Assad implemented this, but he worked with the Sunni economic forces. And he didn't, in fact,
00:18:07.160 exclude them or was hostile to them. But then the sectarianism is sort of baked into our culture to
00:18:13.080 a large extent. But then you saw everybody in the Middle East sending their most effective radicals
00:18:20.520 into Syria to radicalize the uprising further. And you remember when the brigades, the military
00:18:30.840 brigades began forming. The first one was called the Farooq Brigade, referring to Omar ibn al-Khattab,
00:18:38.040 the most hated figure in Shia Islam, or one of the most hated figures in Shia Islam. And this was
00:18:45.320 deliberate. And you remember when the guys in the militias in Rastan went from having regular
00:18:52.840 beards to having Salafi beards and shaved off their mustaches. And then that's when you knew
00:18:59.720 that Qatari funding has sort of properly gone into Syria in order to blow up the whole country.
00:19:05.400 I'm happy that you mentioned Qatar, by the way. I'm very happy you mentioned Qatar. I think
00:19:14.200 if there is one land in the world that I wouldn't step in,
00:19:20.920 that would be Qatar. Because what Qatar did basically is spending fortunes, tens of billions of
00:19:28.600 dollars to radicalize big segments of the Syrian people. Hamad bin Jassim himself confessed on the
00:19:36.360 Qatari national TV that they even supported al-Nusra Front. He said, no, support for ISIS is an
00:19:43.480 exaggeration. He said, we didn't do that. But the Qatari role in Syria is really not discussed enough,
00:19:50.200 because they have a strong PR machine in the region. They have, in my opinion, one of the biggest
00:19:58.520 offices in the entire region called Al Jazeera. And what they did basically, in Arabic, they say
00:20:07.080 exactly, they say something, and they push the people into radicalism and sectarianism and jihadism.
00:20:14.200 They normalize the term Islamic State and not Daesh or ISIS or terrorism. And they host clerics,
00:20:23.080 sheikhs, imams, giving fatwas live on television, saying, for example, Sheikh Youssef Al-Qaradawi,
00:20:31.080 who is now in God's hands. He said, I permit the killing of every Syrian, whether civilian or soldier,
00:20:41.400 if he's working in a public sector in Syria, which means if you're working in the airport,
00:20:47.160 if you're teaching at school, if you're working in the energy sector, it is permissible for these
00:20:51.800 so-called rebels to kill you. You're not a soldier, but you're serving the regime according to him.
00:20:58.040 Thousands of people got killed because of that while on their way to their work. But when you open
00:21:04.680 Al Jazeera English, they say, yeah, the entire world needs a democracy except for Qatar, right?
00:21:11.080 And then you go into Al Jazeera Plus, they're talking about pandas, they're talking about LGBTQ
00:21:16.680 community. They know to who they are speaking and to who they are directing their speech.
00:21:23.560 This double game of Qatar is very dangerous. And the people need to know, especially your respected
00:21:29.400 audience, that Qatar played an instrumental role in radicalizing the people and corrupting the brains
00:21:37.320 to the extent that people started blowing up themselves. Like all these sheikhs and imams
00:21:42.040 and who are giving fatwas. And nowadays, many of whom who are giving fatwas are in Syria.
00:21:48.440 Yes.
00:21:49.000 And as these sheikhs are Saudis, Syrians, Qataris, Kuwaitis, etc. The other day,
00:21:56.680 there was a campaign of crowdfunding. They're doing a crowdfunding to support the people in Hama.
00:22:03.880 And some of these sheikhs were there donating $6 to $10 million. How can any of these sheikhs,
00:22:12.920 like the question is, where did they get this money from? How is it a Syrian sheikh,
00:22:18.600 who used to live in Saudi Arabia, and on TV, raising the sword and saying,
00:22:23.400 let's go to jihad and let's go and kill the infidels, has $6 million. Like, I mean, come on,
00:22:31.800 me and you, we are hard workers, you know, $6 million. We have $6 million.
00:22:37.800 That's a lot of money. No, they were, I think you're referring to the guy who was in Saudi Arabia,
00:22:45.080 what was his name?
00:22:46.600 Aar'ud.
00:22:47.000 Sheikh Aar'ud.
00:22:48.520 Sheikh Aar'ud, yes. One of the worst human beings alive.
00:22:53.880 And yeah, you saw clerics from Kuwait going into Syria to try to radicalize people. You saw them
00:22:59.640 from all over the Gulf. They emptied their prisons of radicals and sent them into Syria. And it was
00:23:06.200 done in a coordinated way. And it was led by, you know, US support. We had Operation Timber
00:23:14.120 Seqib Moore. And this was known at the time. And we have Clinton's emails saying Al-Qaeda is on our
00:23:19.640 side in Syria. And this was all done essentially to cut the supply line between Iran and Hezbollah.
00:23:28.040 But now relations between the new Syrian authorities and Israel are not exactly going great. Talk to us
00:23:37.320 a little bit about that.
00:23:40.120 So I think that Netanyahu is very smart. And I never underestimate Israel. And I always tell people,
00:23:49.000 you should be very, very careful what the Israelis say and do. And they think ahead. Unlike all the
00:23:56.280 countries in the region, all of them, without exception, Israel has a plan for 50 years ahead.
00:24:01.560 And they have a long, let's say, strategic patience with the program that they try to implement in the
00:24:08.920 region. Now, the Jolani forces occupied the border crossing between the Golan Heights,
00:24:15.560 Syrian occupied territories now in the hands of Israel. And the Jolani forces were present on the
00:24:21.960 border crossing in touch with the Israeli army for three to four years. Yes. And they were fighting
00:24:27.400 against the Syrian army. They were injured by the Syrian army. They went to the Golan Heights
00:24:32.760 field hospitals operated by the Israelis, received medical treatment, cash, light weapons, and
00:24:40.840 the logistics, the intel. And this is all in Israeli press. I'm not bringing anything from myself, you
00:24:47.160 know. The former head of Mossad was challenged by Mehdi Hassan, one of the few times he did great
00:24:53.880 journalism that he challenged the former head of Mossad. And he said, yeah, we gave, we supported Al-Qaeda
00:25:00.760 and we gave them medical treatment for humanitarian reasons. This is what he said.
00:25:04.280 But when Jolani, and this is very important in my opinion, when October 7 happened, I think everything
00:25:13.880 changed in the region and Assad was asked to make a shift. And this is the time, especially after the
00:25:21.240 assassination of Nasrallah that Assad has to do the U-turn. And Assad is not an Anwar Sadat. Anwar Sadat,
00:25:28.680 in one day to another, he flipped and he opened his country to the Americans and he normalized ties
00:25:34.680 with Israel. But Assad is not that type of personality. So he was one feet here and one
00:25:41.000 feet there, a little bit with the Gulf and a little bit with the Iranians trying to diversify. It won't
00:25:45.480 work that way after October 7. It was a time to be in a camp. If you enjoyed this piece of premium
00:25:51.160 content from the Lotus Eaters, head to our website where you can find more.