The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters

00:00:00.000 Hello, and welcome to another live episode of RealPolitik. I am your host, Firas Moadad.

00:00:08.980 Today, obviously, we are going to be talking about the escalation between the United States

00:00:14.040 and Iran, and where things seem to be headed. As usual, this is a live episode, so if at any time

00:00:22.040 you want to come in and ask questions or whatever, please do. Very, very welcome to. I love answering

00:00:28.240 your questions. Let's start with what Steve Witkoff said a couple of days ago, basically going back

00:00:36.740 to the mantra that Iran is a week away from making a nuclear weapon. Now, for those of you with a

00:00:43.520 short memory, the Israelis have been saying that the Iranians are a few months away, a few weeks away,

00:00:52.040 a few days away from being able to make a nuclear weapon since the mid-90s. So this isn't a new

00:00:58.940 mantra. However, the significance of it is that it's coming from Steve Witkoff. For those of you

00:01:05.800 who don't remember, Steve Witkoff is a real estate developer from New York who's friends with Donald

00:01:11.020 Trump and who, along with Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has pretty much taken over

00:01:17.840 negotiating on behalf of Trump in Gaza, in Russia, Ukraine, and with Iran. So he's sort of become a

00:01:27.060 one-man show State Department bypassing the existing structures of power. And the fact that he's saying

00:01:35.280 that the Iranians are a week away from building a bomb is pretty significant. Now, funnily enough, 1.00

00:01:41.340 even the Jerusalem Post didn't seem to believe him. When Steve Witkoff made that statement saying that

00:01:51.140 they could be away from a week away from making a bomb, the comment from the Jerusalem Post was,

00:01:59.660 though the envoy left out that Iran currently has no access to its material, the nuclear material,

00:02:05.700 no machines to enrich it, and no weapons program to use it for any operational purpose.

00:02:11.340 So the Jerusalem Post doesn't believe Steve Witkoff, meaning that he's saying this to build up

00:02:17.460 pressure on both Iran and probably the president to get him to come to military action. And as if

00:02:26.180 Trump needed encouragement, he reposted a video from Mark frickin' Levin, where Levin was making the

00:02:35.340 case for bombing Iran and changing the regime. So they seem to be a little bit on the same wavelength.

00:02:40.140 The issue, however, isn't the nuclear program. The issue is the ballistic missile program. And

00:02:48.500 that's why it's actually a pretty grim situation. Because Israeli senior officials are saying that

00:02:58.040 Israel cannot coexist with Iran's ballistic missiles. The Iranian ballistic missiles are an 0.80

00:03:03.840 existential threat, not merely a limited military challenge. So the Israelis have come to the view

00:03:10.460 after the 12-day war that if the Iranian nuclear program were to, where the missile program were

00:03:16.460 to continue, they would be in a position to destroy Israel without needing nuclear weapons. And here you 0.90

00:03:23.660 see an older discussion from the Jerusalem Post basically saying that given that only 36 of Iran's 550 missiles

00:03:34.820 bypassed Israel's defenses, the Israelis wouldn't be able to cope if that number were to multiply. And

00:03:44.900 according to the Israelis, the Iranians are building enough of a stockpile for this to become a real 0.85

00:03:53.700 possibility. So the Israeli estimates are that the Iranians have maybe 5,000, 6,000 missiles in stockpile,

00:04:03.600 and that they might be building 100 new missiles every month, meaning that over a couple of years, things with

00:04:12.260 Israel, things for Israel would look incredibly grim. The war preparations are increasing on both sides,

00:04:22.080 obviously. China has helped Iran shift its communications from whatever rubbish communications they had that left them

00:04:32.820 enormously vulnerable to Israel in the 12-day war, to a new set of comms equipment that can allow them to 0.99

00:04:44.640 cover themselves basically against U.S. infiltration, that can be more secure, that can avoid being detected by

00:04:54.320 the Americans. And the reporting is that this began in January of this year, meaning that one would guess

00:05:02.600 that not enough progress has been made in order to properly fortify Iran, but they're doing everything

00:05:08.600 from providing encrypted communication, to giving them cybersecurity, to making sure that the networks

00:05:15.420 that currently exist are properly configured, and so on and so forth, so that Iran would be a lot less 1.00

00:05:23.740 vulnerable to any future attack. And this is not all that the Chinese are doing. They've sent one of their most 1.00

00:05:33.740 advanced spy ships called the Liao Wang-1 that is there with a bunch of radars and operating near Iranian shores

00:05:44.520 so that it can facilitate communications between China and Iran, with the Chinese signaling essentially that

00:05:51.740 they are going to be collecting intelligence on what the United States is doing and then feeding that

00:05:58.740 intelligence to the Iranians using the networks that are being provided to Iran to replace the very vulnerable

00:06:06.740 networks that they previously had. And this is a pretty advanced ship. It can monitor everything from aircraft to

00:06:13.740 satellites to ships. And so the intent on the part of the Chinese seems to be to play the same exact role that the

00:06:23.740 United States is playing in Ukraine against Russia. In Ukraine, it's the Americans who are providing the targeting 0.91

00:06:29.740 and the live intelligence on what the Russians are doing. And the Chinese are kind of signaling to the Americans that they're 0.62

00:06:35.740 going to do the same to defend Iran. So this looks like it's getting a little more serious and it's escalating.

00:06:45.740 And you're seeing the Chinese kind of regularly providing maps on where the Americans are deploying. So what they're 0.92

00:06:59.740 doing is that they are taking satellite imagery of the bases where the U.S. is sending its forces in the Middle

00:07:07.740 East and they're releasing this publicly. And so they're showing exactly how many jets the United States has in

00:07:17.740 different bases. This one I believe is in Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia. They are identifying specifically what kinds of

00:07:26.740 aircraft they are. And by releasing this information to the public, they're implicitly saying to the United

00:07:36.740 States that, look, we can release this information live to the Iranians to help them fight against you better. 0.91

00:07:44.740 We're also seeing evidence that the Israeli claims early during the during the 2025 12-day war that they had

00:07:58.740 completely annihilated the Iranian air defense are not credible. Because now we're seeing that the S-300s are still

00:08:05.740 there in Iran. And we haven't seen much evidence that that the Russians have provided them with new ones,

00:08:13.740 nor would they be able to provide them with a lot of new ones in a short time space, given the pressure

00:08:18.740 that they're under in Ukraine. Meaning that the Iranians still have some kind of air defense. And it's had its 0.96

00:08:25.740 communications upgraded. And it's had greater ability to survive a new American onslaught. The Americans are building a

00:08:39.740 lot of forces in the region. This gives a good comparison. There is one from the FT and there is one from CSIS, which is a think tank that

00:08:49.740 focuses on defense issues and is usually very well regarded by the American defense establishment.

00:08:57.740 And the interesting thing here is that the buildup that's actually underway in the Middle East, while very

00:09:05.740 significant, it's not as big as the buildup that was there for Desert Storm when Iraq was attacked and kicked out of Kuwait.

00:09:15.740 It's not as big as the 2003 invasion of Iraq. And it's not even as big as the Desert Fox 0.52

00:09:23.740 operation in 1998, where Bill Clinton basically went for a second round against the Iraqis to show that he was

00:09:32.740 serious, essentially, and to try to overthrow Saddam on the cheap, which didn't work. So it's a pretty big buildup.

00:09:41.740 And you're seeing some serious numbers there. Let me see if I can find this one. This is actually a very good graphic.

00:09:49.740 You're seeing two aircraft carriers. You're seeing around 50 different jets that are deployed, F-15s, F-35s, F-16s, F-18s, and a huge naval flotilla.

00:10:07.740 And these are all there, obviously, to tell the Iranians how much the Americans love them.

00:10:13.740 But it's not as big as previous buildups, which, as we will go through in this discussion, it looks like it's going to be a pretty long campaign where things currently stand.

00:10:29.740 So we'll talk about that. The Americas are constantly doubling the numbers.

00:10:35.740 They have everything there from electronic warfare stuff to fighters to bombers and reconnaissance aircraft.

00:10:43.740 And the idea seems to be to try to overwhelm Iranian air defense early on.

00:10:50.740 And this is really the big question. Can the U.S. completely annihilate Iranian air defense and then bomb the Iranians at will for as much as they want? 0.71

00:11:00.740 Or do the Chinese defenses and the Chinese technology and the Russian air defense systems actually enable the Iranians to better defend themselves?

00:11:09.740 Now, you could see from the size of the buildup that the Americans don't expect this to be smooth.

00:11:15.740 They are deploying forces all over the region.

00:11:22.740 Udayd Air Base, Muwaffaq Salty in Jordan, and Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia.

00:11:27.740 And probably Ndafra in Abu Dhabi, although there has been less intelligence release about that.

00:11:32.740 But you can see that the Americans don't really expect this to be easy.

00:11:36.740 Otherwise, they wouldn't be concentrating that much forces.

00:11:42.740 And yet, at the same time, they aren't concentrating as much forces as they have done in the past.

00:11:49.740 And because of the possibility of Iranian missile attacks, they have had to disperse at least some assets away from Udayd Air Base in Qatar.

00:12:02.740 And they've had to deploy assets in places like Diego Garcia, obviously, which is going to be critical in this campaign.

00:12:09.740 But also in Khania, in Crete, in Greece, where they seem to have concentrated some of their aerial refueling capability and their signals intelligence jets.

00:12:23.740 So, it looks like a pretty significant buildup.

00:12:30.740 And it's coming with all kinds of new kits.

00:12:33.740 The F-16s that have been sent, these are equipped with something called Angry Kitten.

00:12:39.740 Now, I don't know who in their right mind would name a weapons system Angry Kitten.

00:12:45.740 But what this system does is that it monitors the electronic spectrum to detect where radar signals are coming from.

00:12:54.740 And then it spoofs these radar signals and sends false intelligence.

00:12:59.740 And that enables aircraft to penetrate a dense air defense network and target it more effectively.

00:13:06.740 So, that seems to be the plan.

00:13:10.740 And this kind of targeting would be done with the help of these babies.

00:13:15.740 The JASSM.

00:13:22.740 And these are things that can have a range of 600 kilometers.

00:13:27.740 And they would therefore be outside of the ranges of existing Iranian air defense.

00:13:34.740 And the idea would be to use those to smash through the Iranian radars and air defense systems so that the other older jets that the US has, like the F-15s and the F-16s, which are not stealth jets, can then be used.

00:13:52.740 And they would be dropping this kind of equipment, the J-DAM, which is a guidance kit that fits on any kind of munition and converts it from a dumb bomb to a smart bomb.

00:14:06.740 And that would be what the Americans use in order to just take out as many locations in Iran as they believe that they need to. 0.63

00:14:18.740 Now, the issue is that the Iranians are saying, we are willing to make concessions on the nuclear program.

00:14:28.740 We are willing to dilute the highly enriched uranium that exists in Iran, which is enriched to 60%.

00:14:35.740 To get it to weapons grade, you need 90%, although some would argue that even with 60% enrichment, you can still build some device, but it would be suboptimal.

00:14:46.740 They are saying that they are willing to move some of that stockpile abroad and talk about maybe enriching jointly with other countries in the region while keeping some kind of residual capability at home.

00:15:01.740 So, the problem is, however, that from the Israeli perspective, this is not enough.

00:15:08.740 They don't want merely Iran to limit its nuclear program.

00:15:14.740 They want to get rid of the ballistic missile program, and they want to get rid of Iran's supports for proxies in Iraq and in Lebanon and in Yemen.

00:15:25.740 So, two things.

00:15:27.740 First, when it comes to the ballistic missile program, you just have to look at a map and see where Iran is.

00:15:36.740 Iran is surrounded by Saudi Arabia, which is a militarily capable country, thanks to the United States.

00:15:46.740 It has a formidable air force.

00:15:49.740 Pakistan, which just humiliated India and showed that it's a capable military power and it has a long military tradition.

00:15:58.740 And Turkey.

00:15:59.740 And all three of these countries are Sunni powers.

00:16:03.740 So, from Iran's perspective, since they can't buy enough foreign equipment in order to defend themselves against these three Sunni powers, 0.99

00:16:15.740 the only card that they have is the ballistic missile program, which is also their main card against the Israelis. 0.67

00:16:22.740 And they need to have this program for their national security, because it's really the only threat that they have.

00:16:34.740 And so, the Israelis saying that the Iranians must give up on the ballistic missile program isn't going to go anywhere,

00:16:43.740 because they don't just need to target Tel Aviv and Jerusalem with it.

00:16:48.740 They need to be able to target Ankara and Istanbul.

00:16:52.740 They need to be able to target Karachi and Islamabad. 0.97

00:16:56.740 And they need to be able to target Riyadh. 0.74

00:16:59.740 So, with the Israelis saying that this concession must be made for us to accept, it's a non-starter.

00:17:06.740 And it's not going to work.

00:17:08.740 But all of the negotiations are on the nuclear program, and the Iranians are refusing to make concessions on the ballistic missile program.

00:17:18.740 It's difficult to see how a deal gets made.

00:17:21.740 Then the other side of it is the proxies.

00:17:25.740 Where are these proxies?

00:17:27.740 The most important ones are in Yemen, and obviously in Iraq and in Lebanon.

00:17:33.740 Now, when you think about the Shia communities in Iraq and in Lebanon,

00:17:38.740 you have to think of how integrated the clerical establishment is within these societies.

00:17:45.740 With Iraq, the Shia are quite fanatical in their faith.

00:17:52.740 Understandably so.

00:17:54.740 That's how people of faith should be.

00:17:56.740 But the leading families that go and study in Najaf, here in southern Iraq, also go and study in Qum, here in Iran.

00:18:11.740 And they are related to each other by blood and by marriage.

00:18:15.740 And it's the same in Lebanon, where the clerical families in south Lebanon, the Shia clerical families in south Lebanon, and in the Beqa, this part of the country here where Baalbek is located,

00:18:28.740 they also travel regularly, both to Najaf in Iraq and to Qum in Iran.

00:18:35.740 So the connections within the Shia community are organic, and they are blood and marriage connections, to the extent that, for example, the founders of Hezbollah adopted the ideology of Vilayat al-Faqih from Iraqi clerics in Najaf,

00:18:56.740 before the Islamic Revolution, which made the Vilayat al-Faqih the governing ideology of Iran, had won.

00:19:05.740 They picked up, the leadership of Hezbollah picked up this ideology in the 60s and 70s from an Iraqi cleric called Muhammad Bakr al-Sadr,

00:19:17.740 before the Islamic Revolution in Iran won.

00:19:22.740 And the leaders of what became the IRGC were getting trained in Lebanon at the hands of the Palestinians of Fatah, 0.97

00:19:32.740 and at the hands of the Shia, before the Islamic Revolution won.

00:19:38.740 So these webs of ties and connections between Iran and its proxies are actually very old and very well established.

00:19:47.740 And indeed, if you look back at history, when the Sunnis were ruling the entire Levant in the 1300s and 1400s, 1.00

00:19:57.740 they were worried back then about the connections between the Shia in Lebanon and Iraq, and between the Shia within Lebanon.

00:20:07.740 So these connections between the Iranians and their proxies, they didn't happen overnight.

00:20:14.740 And they can't be dissolved by government decree because the people in charge are all related to each other by blood,

00:20:21.740 and they can't turn their backs on their cousins.

00:20:24.740 These are deeply tribal societies, and the relationships between them matter a great deal to them.

00:20:31.740 If you enjoyed this piece of premium content from the Lotus Eaters, head to our website where you can find more.

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PREVIEW： Realpolitik #35 ｜ Iran War Is Imminent

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