The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - The Battle of Clacton

00:00:00.000 Hi folks, welcome to another one of our political chats, where I'm joined by Dan, and today

00:00:03.800 we've had to re-record the chat that we had yesterday, because events have conspired to

00:00:09.020 overtake us, and render what we had said completely out of date.

00:00:13.660 Yes.

00:00:14.140 Because the confluence of forces in British politics have made it so that the current

00:00:22.460 situation in British politics is hilarious.

00:00:24.640 Oh, it's really, really fun.

00:00:26.680 We are going to have so much fun with this one.

00:00:28.440 yeah the great thing about it is we're on the outside of it right we have we have no dog in

00:00:33.060 the fight that's about to happen and so we we we get nice contents out of it and no matter what

00:00:39.320 happens we come out winners from it so i'm happy with that um anyway so basically just to just to

00:00:44.920 spoil it just because then we'll take you through the whole process but spoil it

00:00:49.640 Nigel Farage is under a lot of pressure so he decided to resign in Clacton and call a by-election

00:00:54.560 and this is after a huge amount of pressure about his personal finances and it's it's it looks like

00:01:01.640 it's backfiring in his face so what we're going to do is begin with why is Nigel Farage been under

00:01:06.180 so much pressure so you may remember uh not so long ago actually he said this anybody I can't

00:01:12.920 move more by the input hello chungus it's me Nigel fromage Sigma Sigma on the wall who's the 0.92

00:01:18.860 of them all attention all sussy gamers wag one sigma sigma spider climbed up the skibbley spout 0.65

00:01:25.900 you have no riz b5o farm i stole the blood of a chungus one he seems to really enjoy doing those 0.90

00:01:33.600 cameos like that's a lot of energy if you paid like 80 quid or whatever to get nigel farage 0.97

00:01:40.500 say skibbley riz and he's doing it with such joy so why could somebody on his team not said 0.98

00:01:47.000 if you get 80 quid to do a shout out to big chungas just don't take the 80 quid what we 0.93

00:01:53.060 preferably don't do any of this because it may die anyway famously Nigel Farage can't be bought 0.90

00:01:59.220 unless you pay 80 quid on cameo and this has been a problem for Nigel Farage for a little while now

00:02:04.800 and the media have grabbed hold of this like you know dog grabbing your ankle and they refuse to

00:02:08.780 let go yes and it's threatening to actually bring Nigel Farage down there's nothing there's nothing

00:02:13.380 actually wrong with this in fact i don't think it's not illegal or anything there was nothing

00:02:16.760 wrong with anything that he's done with the exception of the not informing parliament as

00:02:23.700 he's supposed to i don't have an issue so so the left has been going after him because the left

00:02:29.160 just find the idea of anybody making any money ever distasteful that's not where we are we don't 0.99

00:02:35.240 care if you want to make yourself look silly by doing a shout out to big chungas for 80 quid 0.98

00:02:40.040 go ahead you know how much he was making on cameo every month how much 16 grand 16 grand a month 0.98

00:02:47.300 16 grand a month by those cameos so you can see why he did it it it's not he makes him he makes

00:02:54.000 a million a year from gb news alone does he need that extra 16 grand a month the problem with it

00:02:58.840 was is you can't imagine anthony eden doing it i can't it's not statesman like does winston

00:03:04.400 churchill do this does well he might actually but well okay maybe but you know does does nigel

00:03:10.600 farage's political hero enoch powell do this i probably not i would think it's unlikely that

00:03:16.240 i would do this on principle yes yeah exactly anyway so uh nigel farage can be bought uh fairly

00:03:22.580 cheaply actually um but the the issue of nigel farage's money has been in the press for about

00:03:28.720 a week two weeks now uh because they've realized that nigel farage doesn't really have a good

00:03:32.580 answer to this and what this allows them to do is lean into the worst aspect of british political

00:03:37.840 life which is the crabs in the bucket mentality so oh you you made some money did you oh well

00:03:43.460 that's bad making money is bad because some people didn't make money and therefore somehow

00:03:48.220 you're a bad person not equality or whatever it is it's not equality we and that as as um we can

00:03:55.180 see from the green party on about 13 labor party on about 18 about a third of the country feels

00:04:01.800 that way they're kind of like the soviets who genuinely think that the only legitimate thing

00:04:07.180 is for you to not have any money because some people don't have any money and so if you make

00:04:11.320 some money you are intrinsically suspect you're intrinsically a bad person if you haven't got a

00:04:16.360 broken down old washing machine in your front garden with litter and your your daughters can't

00:04:21.300 go outside there is something wrong with the world unless everybody is equally miserable there's a

00:04:25.520 reason that the four yorksmen sketch from multi python actually still resonates with people and

00:04:30.180 why it was funny in its own day yes i'm not a monty python fan i'm told it's funny um there's

00:04:35.480 a reason that that mattered uh because that is a genuine sort of sentiment in the united kingdom

00:04:41.580 in england um it's it's this kind of like low-minded resentment and a bunch of spiteful

00:04:49.860 mutants he as far as i'm concerned he's got nothing to answer on this but for some reason

00:04:55.980 that he couldn't answer it because because he is so captured by the liberal progressive frame he

00:05:01.340 feels he has to channel everything through that he has he has to go through them he can't talk to

00:05:06.700 alternative media ever he's always hated them he has to go through the media and therefore he has

00:05:12.320 to engage with the concerns of the small-minded you know bloody leftists yeah the 30 who will

00:05:18.020 never vote for him who are calling him a fascist every day yes like the people who who are never

00:05:22.260 going to be on his side there's no point placating these people but he tries anyway but he tries

00:05:26.200 anyway anyway so this is the times um uh expose on posh george cottrell who in 2016 was arrested

00:05:35.260 in america and indicted for money laundering why fraud blackmail and extortion uh it's a very

00:05:40.360 extensive article uh that tells so george cottrell he's only 32 he's a trust fund kid he's a trust

00:05:46.540 fund he's at 250 million in the trust fund he's ahead of a trust fund it is but it also puts

00:05:50.860 nigel farage taking like five million or a million here into perspective i mean the people he

00:05:56.200 surrounds himself with are much much wealthier than him yeah and that's why he thinks with his

00:06:00.660 net worth of whatever it is it must be like 10 12 million at this point i can't probably more

00:06:05.300 probably more but you can understand why he thinks he's a pauper yeah because he surrounds himself

00:06:10.540 with people like this yeah and they they pay everything for him so i mean uh george cotter

00:06:15.200 pays for him to go on uh private jets he pays for you know all these travel expenses and it's

00:06:20.460 security things like that right so it's it's not that there's anything wrong here it's just

00:06:26.820 surrounding yourself with a trust fund kid who has a criminal record who is paying for everything

00:06:32.720 for you who is like you know 30 years your junior yeah and and again i don't have a problem with the

00:06:37.860 underlying here okay yeah he's a convicted criminal but what is he convicted of because

00:06:41.600 he set up a business he set up a gambling business yes in the u.s and he fell the wrong side of

00:06:48.160 whatever uh regulatory lines they had laid out that week because it keeps bloody changing and

00:06:53.600 they went after him now if under a different regime under a different regulatory environment

00:06:58.200 he would have been fine he was just a guy who opened a business but he got done for money

00:07:01.760 laundering and all the rest of it and so he's and so he's so they can say that's the thing they like

00:07:06.300 to do he's a convicted criminal what did he what is he actually convicted of opening a business of

00:07:11.420 which people could if they wanted to participate in as a customer yeah it's not an issue but and

00:07:16.880 And, like, just exactly, that word, oh, he's a convicted criminal.

00:07:20.580 Did he murder a baby?

00:07:21.820 No.

00:07:23.160 He's guilty of regulatory or bureaucratic criminality, right?

00:07:28.260 It's stuff that, this is why we, generally on this channel,

00:07:31.400 we have ignored all of this stuff, because we don't care.

00:07:33.920 It's not a serious thing.

00:07:35.580 What we care about is people getting randomly stabbed in the street

00:07:38.460 and all the rest of that nonsense.

00:07:40.180 We don't care about regulatory whatever.

00:07:42.560 Yeah, this is a crime of procedure, not a crime of morality.

00:07:46.360 Yes.

00:07:46.540 As in, oh, no, the government said you can't do that.

00:07:49.680 Oh, I don't care.

00:07:50.900 I just don't care.

00:07:51.920 Well, funny you should say crime of procedure,

00:07:53.460 because that's exactly what you're going to be coming to,

00:07:55.540 presumably with Nigel Farage.

00:07:56.860 Well, yeah, I mean, it is what we're going to come to.

00:07:58.760 But the point is, yeah, Farage is surrounded by, like,

00:08:01.120 a coterie of, you know, insanely wealthy people,

00:08:03.800 and he likes to swan in those circles, you know,

00:08:07.800 the high-status circles, and he takes the money

00:08:11.000 in order to raise his own status.

00:08:14.380 And, I mean, you know,

00:08:15.720 Farage is a fairly typical boomer on this.

00:08:17.440 A lot of boomers are really concerned

00:08:19.500 about status signalling and economic,

00:08:23.080 genuine, like having vast amounts of wealth.

00:08:26.220 Like, I could buy multiple houses,

00:08:28.820 but I don't,

00:08:29.620 because I don't want multiple houses.

00:08:31.060 I live in a house.

00:08:32.380 Anyone with boomer parents will tell you,

00:08:34.720 they're just like,

00:08:35.620 have you got a good job?

00:08:36.420 Have you going to get a good job?

00:08:37.520 It's, yeah, very much that mentality.

00:08:40.400 And it's status signalling for them.

00:08:41.940 For them, it's making sure that everyone knows

00:08:43.580 that you're doing well yes it's like okay i don't care what other people think what i'm doing what

00:08:47.900 car do you drive where do you live maybe it's a gen x thing but i just don't care what they think

00:08:51.700 i just have no you know anyway so the the point being this is fairly typical of that kind of

00:08:58.460 cohort and that's one of the reasons why nigel has captured the boomer votes successfully is

00:09:02.460 because he really does represent them he really does actually embody them anyway the next thing

00:09:06.880 was frage's earnings over the 12 hours work selling gold bullion he earned 27 000 pounds

00:09:12.940 good for him again what did you think nigel farage was worth he is an international celebrity he has

00:09:18.720 campaigned trump he's the most recognizable politician in britain and possibly the most

00:09:22.700 influential in the last i don't know 20 years or so like if nigel if a company is like nigel

00:09:28.680 would like to promote our product nigel farage can charge a premium for his appearances i mean

00:09:34.220 on the moral grounds i will tell you if a gold company wants me to flog their gold for 270 grand

00:09:39.480 i'm doing it like that i mean just no question i'm not but okay because i'm a terrible capitalist

00:09:45.560 but no i i mean maybe 12 hours anyway so i mean there's nothing wrong with gold gold's probably

00:09:53.320 a good idea to be honest this isn't a paid sponsorship um but the point is it this is

00:09:57.980 this is irrelevant they paid him money that they thought was worthwhile that he would take to do

00:10:04.080 the job and nothing is wrong with it he declared it there's nothing wrong here there's no crime

00:10:09.940 there's no allegation of wrongdoing what this is is envious cramps in the bucket people like

00:10:14.460 beth rigby being like oh well i can't earn 270 grand by flogging gobbling no you can't because

00:10:19.800 you're not popular yes because nobody likes beth rigby yeah exactly but a lot of people do like

00:10:24.680 nigel farage so this is what happens with fame and success this is celebrity this is what do

00:10:30.440 you think footballers are paid when they like advertise sneakers or nikes or whatever they're

00:10:35.640 called but but i mean this is where he's getting caught up right because from our perspective on

00:10:40.880 the right there's nothing wrong with any of this however the parliamentary rules on reporting

00:10:45.820 actually do need to be followed well okay let's get to that in fact so this is the undeclared

00:10:51.980 five million pound donation by crypto billionaire christopher harborn now again the british media

00:10:58.560 have been like nigel why would he give you five million it's like well that's actually really

00:11:02.620 easy to answer i was mr brexit i campaigned for a particular political a seismic political change

00:11:09.120 in british politics and i won and some crypto billionaire wanted to reward me and if yours

00:11:14.840 if your guy was like five billion pounds giving for us five million pounds is a pittance yeah

00:11:20.480 if i was a crypto billionaire i wanted brexit so much i probably would have given him five million

00:11:26.400 myself yeah and again it's like yeah again and again and again we look at this stuff and we think

00:11:32.300 not an issue and imagine what they think about this in america they give me five million is that

00:11:38.620 it like apac gave me a million last year yeah exactly yeah exactly like the these are these

00:11:44.820 are genuinely quite small sums of money like what's nancy pelosi worth these days it's something like

00:11:50.140 300 million oh god knows it's crazy gdp of spain i would imagine something like that and so

00:11:55.360 like okay yeah this is what celebrities get given for the things that they provide to rich people

00:12:03.120 rich people want to reward the people that they like harbourn wanted to reward farage so he just

00:12:08.380 gave him five million with no strings attached i completely and and it was after the fact yeah

00:12:12.800 but no strings it wasn't like um it would be dodgy if he gave him five million pounds as he

00:12:19.500 was becoming prime minister and he said i want you to change the crypto regulations that would

00:12:24.040 be dodgy and just to be clear nigel farage had not declared himself to be the mp of clacton at

00:12:28.020 this point and it didn't look like he was going to so if you can cast your mind back to 2024

00:12:32.340 uh nigel farage was saying well i'm going to go out to america and campaign for trump

00:12:36.260 because it looked like in like reform had got to about 10 in the polls which isn't bad but it's

00:12:42.420 not winning it yeah then it had that surge but then that a poll came out from clacton yep that

00:12:47.020 had them on about 32 which was the delete and then nigel farage and he beat that as well yeah he did

00:12:52.420 he yeeted the guy who was currently standing in clacton and he decided no i'm not going to go to

00:12:56.740 america i'm going to stand here and reform won five seats yes now so it's perfectly understandable

00:13:02.120 that he didn't mention it at the time sure however the issue is and actually these these rules are

00:13:09.640 right i've got the parliamentary rule state that any benefits should be declared for the 12 months

00:13:15.020 before taking up office as an mp depending on whether it was for political or personal purposes

00:13:19.520 the rules state if there's any doubt the benefits should be registered now if uh depending on whether

00:13:24.800 or not it was for political or personal purposes well at the time it's very it's very persuasive

00:13:29.880 to be able to say well i wasn't standing for something i wasn't a politician i'm just gonna

00:13:34.480 go out that's true but at the point he won his seat he should have he should have then disclosed

00:13:39.440 the previous 12 months well and those rules are right because depending on whether it's political

00:13:44.540 or personal purposes right well i mean in the case because let's say the chinese embassy gave a

00:13:51.820 prospective parliamentary candidate five million for you know good works for communism that is the

00:13:57.500 sort of thing i want to know so sure if you are going to be a public service if you are going to

00:14:01.300 be an mp i don't think it is unreasonable that you should disclose this stuff and what you should

00:14:06.340 have done is you should have disclosed at the point of becoming an mp yeah or as soon as he

00:14:09.900 realized he was going to be a parliamentary candidate yeah should have just done it yeah

00:14:13.180 should have done it and he then should have said there's nothing wrong with me taking this money

00:14:17.140 but what he what he's actually did is he didn't disclose it and that is a clear breach of the

00:14:22.040 parliamentary rules well and he's been advised that actually he was advised he didn't have to

00:14:27.280 i can't see how he could have been advised that well because as the wording says it if it's

00:14:33.780 political you've got to declare it though but if it's personal you might not have to declare if

00:14:37.820 it's a reward for brexit it's very hard to argue that's not political well that's the that's the

00:14:42.840 gray area that he's arguing and parliamentary standards do come down tough on this stuff so

00:14:47.040 i mean i remember years ago michael gove um accepted a ticket to go and see qpr play now

00:14:53.980 i don't know anything about football i know you don't know anything about football but i do know

00:14:56.820 that qpr their unique selling point is they always lose so it is not it's not a great thing going to

00:15:03.300 watch qpr but nevertheless he accepted this ticket and then he was late in forming parliament that he

00:15:09.840 had taken something and they dragged him over the coals for that so if they're going to drag him

00:15:13.620 over the coals for a late ticket to see a team lose yeah they are most definitely going to do

00:15:18.920 it for five million quid as a political reward for a political project i mean it's just yes

00:15:22.960 should have known better and either way it would have just been uh prudent to declare it yes and

00:15:28.600 and then the lefties would still come for you anyway because they find making money distasteful 0.77

00:15:32.580 and then he should have said none of your business go away don't care you spiteful mutants and that 0.65

00:15:37.320 would have been the end of it yeah declare it before the election win the election yes none

00:15:41.400 of this happens yes right um but that's not what happened he decided he wouldn't declare it um but

00:15:47.140 like i said i don't think there's actually anything wrong with him taking this money i don't think

00:15:50.000 there's anything wrong with christopher harbourn giving him this money and it's completely

00:15:53.500 understandable i mean this like for example peter teal funds loads of influencers right because

00:16:00.300 farage is basically a political influencer at this point peter if you're watching get in touch

00:16:05.260 yeah he doesn't fund us nobody funds us you fund us um we're we're we're entirely grassroots which

00:16:11.100 actually i'm really proud to be able to say that yes actually it's not because we're too proud it's

00:16:15.220 just that nobody wants to give us money that's fine because we don't need anyone's money um but

00:16:20.080 the the point is this is completely normal right billionaire patrons of political influences that

00:16:25.220 they like uh completely normal nothing wrong with it so anyway they started going on about his

00:16:29.360 property portfolio now which again it the the number four million sounds like a lot until you

00:16:36.040 realize that's five properties so actually a couple of these properties are less than half a million

00:16:40.620 each and they're only like three bed houses or whatever because property in this country is

00:16:45.840 unbelievably the word empire in this headline is absurd yeah yeah not with the uk house prices i

00:16:52.460 mean that that could literally be one house in london yeah uh so it could be one house in winchester

00:16:56.800 it could be one house in lots of places at this point well yeah i mean his main one is a surrey

00:17:00.360 home which is one and a half million nearly right and okay that that sounds big but it's a five

00:17:05.320 bedroom four bathroom home with grounds it's like okay that's that's that's that's a nice house

00:17:10.620 it's a long way from a stately home though exactly right it's it's not some sort of hollywood mansion

00:17:16.860 though you know like a five bedroom house that's not that much i have a five bedroom house my house

00:17:22.880 doesn't cost 1.4 million because i don't have loads of grounds but like a five bedroom house

00:17:26.520 is good to have an it's a big house in a village right somewhere in england but like it's the house

00:17:32.640 price is just way over costed way over costed right um so and then his other ones uh he's got

00:17:39.820 like um was it a four bedroom house uh that his girlfriend has in clacton uh which again is four

00:17:46.660 bedroom house for 885 000 pounds in clacton a left behind seaside town like this is crazy

00:17:54.720 how expensive these are but again that's now considered his even though it's owned by his

00:17:58.600 girlfriend uh then you have one in a camp village that his daughter lives in or his second wife

00:18:02.540 lives in sorry then he's got one that his daughter lives in and it's like okay this this is not like

00:18:06.940 you know he's not like being bill gates buying up farmland or black rock buying up villages or

00:18:12.400 something no the word the word empire in that sentence is is absurd doing a lot of it's a

00:18:17.240 couple of houses yeah so anyway nandre farage as you said has not had a good response to all of

00:18:22.540 this he said well it's not the public's business well there's a reward for brexit campaigning which

00:18:27.080 i believe that it was but if you're a politician it is our business where your money is coming from

00:18:34.900 yeah well that's why making the argument after um it's perfectly legitimate is one thing but

00:18:41.180 but all parliamentarians do have to disclose where their money is coming from

00:18:45.080 because you don't want the Chinese embassy or whatever else influencing our politicians.

00:18:49.920 And it is correct and proper to know that.

00:18:51.960 Sure. And that's a problem that he just can't get around at this point.

00:18:56.860 Because he's conflating the two issues.

00:19:00.040 The left are attacking him for having made money at all.

00:19:02.760 He is defending himself for having made money at all.

00:19:05.360 Meanwhile, so that battle is going on.

00:19:06.960 Meanwhile, there's this underlying seam going along, which is, yeah, but the rules are broken.

00:19:11.180 yes and that's the argument he made to uh nick ferrari saying this i could spend it on ferrari's

00:19:16.520 a better course if i'm well it's like yes you can that's not the bit that gets you in trouble

00:19:19.740 yeah exactly that's the bit that's making the public interested in hearing about that's what

00:19:24.440 makes it salacious yes that's what makes it salacious and you're falling into that trap

00:19:29.240 you should be arguing on the rules and the technicalities because i mean he claimed that

00:19:33.580 he had had legal advice that said you don't have to declare this so whatever that legal advice was

00:19:37.580 read that out and say look i was advised by my lawyers that this this this because then as soon

00:19:42.040 as you're like as soon as you bring it to the the realm of legalese make it bureaucratic and boring

00:19:47.760 the public turns off yes exactly the public just completely turn off and there's no yeah okay i

00:19:52.400 don't care you know i am kind of stunned at that advice because i can't see how they came to that

00:19:56.480 conclusion but nevertheless i don't know i'm not nevertheless do what you say read it out yeah

00:20:00.060 make it bureaucratic and then say uh look if parliament takes a different view i'm happy to

00:20:05.560 i've now provided all the details i'll pay a fine or whatever you know you know whatever the

00:20:09.700 punishment is i'll just have to go through but keep it boring exactly keep it very boring but

00:20:14.420 he didn't do that he made it as you said salacious by saying well i could spend it on ferraris or

00:20:18.800 betting horses or whatever it's like which just churns the story more yeah exactly and so they've

00:20:23.080 been you know the the dog's been grabbing his ankle and he's been dragging himself away and

00:20:27.260 now he's falling down the dog biting him further you know uh so anyway the the lib dems you know

00:20:31.680 the spiteful mutants well not the lib dems despite me necessarily but they report into the standards

00:20:35.400 commission so he's now under investigation and this will actually go to a full investigation

00:20:40.820 as we uh covered back here yes uh won't be uh concluded until september for some reason uh

00:20:49.760 but anyway so this carries on and so people in reform are like look he hasn't broken any of the

00:20:55.680 rules yeah but he did though well we'll we'll see right that's the thing i don't know so i don't

00:21:01.660 want to declare that he does uh he has but the problem is nigel farage's responses he has just

00:21:07.240 not been taking will you give this money back uh will you give your salary to charity how about

00:21:11.840 that how about that i'm not ready to be prime minister if you give your entire salary to

00:21:16.100 charity then maybe i will looks angry he seems discomforted right he's you know he's out of

00:21:22.580 sorts about this can't get a picture of him up yeah but again the press is asked the left is

00:21:27.900 asking the wrong question and he's answering the wrong question it's it's all about the money the

00:21:32.480 money is not the issue yes it's the procedure not being followed that's the issue but he's allowed

00:21:37.880 them to make him sound petty and defensive and as soon as they can smell blood in the water

00:21:43.120 that's all he gets non-stop all around and so he he has this reaction to uh sky news uh doorstepping

00:21:52.380 him as he's coming out of a plane was it a mistake not to declare the gifts from george

00:21:57.240 Cottrell, sir. You tell your bosses

00:21:59.140 you harassed my family anymore

00:22:01.380 and I don't think you'd be serious

00:22:03.040 consequences. That's what your organisation

00:22:05.080 has done this morning. Go away.

00:22:06.740 Nigel Farage's reaction to...

00:22:08.460 Yeah. Sounding, you know,

00:22:11.140 angry. Yeah, he is. I mean,

00:22:13.360 on this, I do have

00:22:15.220 a lot of sympathy for him. Sure.

00:22:16.920 In fact, not just him, but I mean, all public

00:22:19.160 figures in this country. So the press in this country...

00:22:21.300 Are awful. They are awful. 0.71

00:22:23.380 They will... And I think

00:22:24.460 it's not just him. I mean,

00:22:26.820 And Dominic Cummings, for ages over the Covid period, when he had gone on a drive or something,

00:22:33.420 they camped outside his house, they harassed his family, they were there at all hours making noise,

00:22:38.880 vehicles running, crowding around.

00:22:40.660 And it wasn't just Dominic Cumming, it was his family, and it was all of the neighbours were massively put out of this.

00:22:46.040 And they do this all the time, they do this to so many people.

00:22:49.440 It is distasteful, but Nigel Farage is acting like he's the only politician in British history

00:22:56.340 who the press have ever have ever been um you know doing this this sort of low tactics to

00:23:02.300 and whilst i on one hand perfectly agree with him being harassed at home his family being harassed

00:23:09.960 and all of that kind of stuff it's very very distasteful but that is british politics that's

00:23:16.200 what happens and he is acting as if this is the first as if it only happens to him it's like no

00:23:21.800 Nigel look you have to accept if you engage in British politics and this is why I don't run for

00:23:27.620 parliament this is why you don't run for parliament because I don't I want to be able to drive off my

00:23:31.700 bloody driveway and my kids to go to school without going through a press gaggle if you are going to

00:23:36.520 engage in this this is the bargain that you make you have to accept it and he and and it goes back

00:23:43.560 to his fundamental flaw he is brittle yes and he takes things far too personally and he and he does

00:23:51.180 this with personality so if anybody is uh robert kilroy silk or gerald baton or stephen wolf or

00:23:58.340 rupert lowe if anybody starts to look more popular than him the brittleness the ego comes out when

00:24:06.260 the press hound him brittleness and the ego comes out it is a major flaw for somebody who is injecting

00:24:12.680 themselves and and he could be the next prime minister so he's going to get it more than anyone

00:24:17.060 else yes he's treated unfairly but i mean look at jeremy corbyn the way that he was treated when

00:24:22.060 it looked like he would he had a decent shot of being the prime minister he was treated possibly

00:24:26.700 even worse and so i have sympathy for him but it's within the remit of being a politician for

00:24:34.700 a role that you have chosen to put yourself in and also it's not just that he's chosen to put

00:24:39.160 himself in if this was his first day i might understand it nigel you were a veteran of this

00:24:45.180 you spent 30 years courting the media and being controversial in order to get headlines and make

00:24:51.600 your name so you become a nationally famous politician when you're on the verge of being

00:24:55.720 prime minister that turns up to 11 and you know it does yes and so you can't say oh i was unprepared

00:25:01.360 for this or something like that you you know exactly how this game is played so this is not a

00:25:05.980 great surprise but the the problem that he has here is he as you say he's not the swashbuckling

00:25:12.300 insurrectionist anymore no right he's not having fun he's not having fun he's now the he's now the

00:25:17.860 man who's leading the polls yeah something to lose and they know he's got something to lose

00:25:22.640 and so they've they've got him they've got a small thing but they've they've latched onto it like a

00:25:27.280 little bulldog and they're not letting go and Nigel Farage is having trouble shaking them off

00:25:31.140 and the more they've been pushing yeah more stress he's been getting it's very obvious that it's

00:25:36.080 working because a lot of this a lot of this media circus is to get this kind of reaction so the

00:25:41.920 person who handled it so i mean if like i say if i this is why i don't go into politics but if i

00:25:46.740 had the the press on my garden trampling over my flowers and all the rest of it i would be pissed

00:25:52.460 off and i'd want to give that reaction actually the correct reaction was what boris johnson yes

00:25:57.300 we bring them out the tea yes and just doesn't take them seriously he went out in his shorts in

00:26:01.100 his rugby shirt he gave him a cup of tea he politely he didn't talk politics but he was like

00:26:06.140 polite and amiable and they got bored and they left him alone whereas he gives them exactly

00:26:11.540 it honestly it is like primary school if you give the bullies the reaction they want they will do

00:26:17.540 it more yeah and and so this is something that like essentially kind of blew up in his face

00:26:23.280 i mean the the media attack seems to have been having an effect as well right so his um approval

00:26:29.820 ratings have been going down as you can see the dissatisfied uh percentage here has been going up

00:26:34.860 and there's a you can see this in the last month or so that tick upwards because the media have

00:26:40.420 been attacking him on a on a flank that he's vulnerable on which is that 30 35 percent uh you

00:26:46.540 know envious communists who are just like how dare you make money and Nigel Farage not being

00:26:50.440 able to bat it away yeah and and I honestly think that he his reaction to it is making so much

00:26:54.580 because if it was old Nigel he would have had a laugh yeah yeah he would have said I'm not talking

00:26:59.420 to you outside my house but come down the pub he'd be there with his pint I'll buy you the pint yeah

00:27:03.520 he'd be laughing and joking with them and and and the image of the normie who doesn't watch 0.90

00:27:10.040 much tv would be oh good old nigel down the pub having a pint again instead they see him 0.71

00:27:15.260 in the clip you just saw i mean nigel the old nigel right i reckon he would have done exactly 0.83

00:27:20.280 that taking the media down the pub and then just bought the entire pub around yes right yeah i got 0.88

00:27:24.700 five million pounds i'm gonna buy everyone around everyone like yeah nigel's buying around yes that

00:27:29.700 would have been great optics and then when they drink it they say well you're drinking some of

00:27:32.500 that five million so what are you talking about exactly you know but the loss of aura has been

00:27:37.520 noted yes the new statesman have realized and we're not the only ones to have observed this

00:27:41.180 obviously but it's it's become clear that as you said nigel's not having fun he's not his old 0.56

00:27:45.280 swashbuckling self that he used to be and he actually has something to lose here and it really 0.84

00:27:50.040 does seem that this is kind of locked in now um nigel has been floating around 25 for a while now 0.67

00:27:58.100 because i mean the the burnham bump didn't really pay off there did it you can you can see there is

00:28:02.840 a bump of about three points two or three points which is not terribly impressive i don't think

00:28:07.960 we'll ask for labor but yeah they've got a bump yeah yeah um we'll talk uh why andy about andy

00:28:13.600 burnham in the next one i think he's not going anywhere for a while yeah yeah um so and even

00:28:18.260 trump has come out in defense of farage yeah saying look they're running the 2024 anti-trump

00:28:22.960 playbook so what this has done is built up actually a surprising amount of pressure on

00:28:29.100 Nigel Farage. Nigel Farage feels like he has, like, an open wound that is bleeding, and his

00:28:35.360 polls are going down, and they have been for a while, and his personal approval rating has gone

00:28:40.160 down specifically because of this recently. And so this is something that is genuinely worrying

00:28:47.920 for him. And this is why the pressure has been building, and he has been kind of losing it.

00:28:51.700 This is why he's snapping at the press. And so what he needs is that kind of Trumpian reversal.

00:28:56.520 he needs to be able to judo flip the entire political establishment bombastic move exactly

00:29:01.800 and so he put out i'll make a statement on my future in public life at 2 p.m yes oh okay that's

00:29:08.080 that's yeah is he resigning what's going on well that's what everyone thought right people thought

00:29:11.880 oh he's gonna quit he's gonna quit and sky news uh covered it and so you know all the media start

00:29:17.440 covering it and of course sky news are deeply bound up in this because they're the ones harassing

00:29:21.120 i mean like his his objection about the you leave my family alone is because they went to his

00:29:25.540 daughter's house and they they claimed they hadn't contacted her so okay but you did go to a house

00:29:30.980 though didn't you you know i would say that is contacting someone actually british press are 1.00

00:29:35.720 scum i'm not gonna make any any bones about that they're just scum they're just scum yes but the 0.99

00:29:40.480 point is you can feel okay a big event's coming and you know the press were hoping oh god let's 1.00

00:29:45.380 hope he resigns we get a scalp right yeah that's what they want i i think the the british left

00:29:50.120 should be very and i'll come on to explain why in a bit yeah but the british left should be very

00:29:53.940 cautious about him quitting because it opens a lot of doors if he does yes to write reunification

00:30:00.000 yeah yeah a lot of things change if Nigel Farage does but the point is you can feel the press want

00:30:04.920 their scalp they know what they're doing they're trying to bully him out of public life on on

00:30:09.200 something that he's actually kind of vulnerable on yes um and so they've been putting up the

00:30:13.560 pressure making I mean Nigel Farage puts one tweet out and they're like yeah everyone guys

00:30:17.580 oh something's going to happen and so Nigel Farage puts out a statement in which he says

00:30:22.060 that i'm going to resign to trigger a by-election in fact here's here's the uh the statement itself

00:30:26.020 and we'll just watch this uh for a little bit just to see the attitude that he has i've done

00:30:31.080 nothing wrong i've thought about it hard and i've decided today today i will resign as a member of

00:30:40.480 parliament for clacton on sea thereby forcing a by-election which should happen i hope in short

00:30:47.760 order. Now, I've decided that the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions.

00:30:54.940 This will be a people versus the establishment by-election. It's a chance to stick two fingers

00:31:02.280 up to the entire establishment, to frankly tell them where to go. And that is why I will

00:31:09.660 be putting my name forward to stand in this by-election. I will fight to win. I will fight

00:31:15.860 to continue the political revolution that reform has started and i would say this to you the voters

00:31:22.980 of clacton if i win you win because if i lose they win and we will never with the two old parties

00:31:31.720 get the type of fundamental change that we need to fix broken britain now that is actually the

00:31:39.360 whole thing it's a it's a long 20 minute video um where he actually hits on a series of points

00:31:45.420 that are actually really good points yeah it's actually a very strong video uh you say you know

00:31:51.920 beginning says i've done nothing wrong i've not broken the law i have not misused public money

00:31:55.600 i've got zero expenses making money is not a crime i feel like i'm living in a communist country

00:31:59.960 all great points i mean i was going to call this soviet britain when i originally drew it up right

00:32:05.840 because that's genuinely how um how the the establishment are acting at this point you know

00:32:11.200 i would call it nigel rage quits possibly but they're playing on the lowest possible impulses

00:32:17.280 in the british so yes which is that envy of why has he got more than me you know it's disgusting 0.86

00:32:21.760 um and so this this is bold very very bold move because you the thing is nigel clearly feels like 0.87

00:32:29.600 his back's against the wall and so he's like right okay i've got to play essentially my trump card 0.65

00:32:33.520 here my nuclear option which is if i resign call an election in clangton i'm probably going to win

00:32:37.980 that election in clangton and so that essentially settles all let me quickly explain why why that is

00:32:43.960 okay because i think he probably did break the parliamentary rules it's yet to be decided but

00:32:49.560 it does look like that he should have declared all that kind of stuff okay so what does that mean

00:32:53.160 that means parliamentary standards look into it um and then they produce their conclusions that

00:32:58.020 goes off to a committee and they can censor him and the way that they would probably censor him

00:33:03.040 is suspending him from parliament for a period of time yeah now if they suspend him for 10 days

00:33:09.100 or longer so they probably would suspend him for 10 days that automatically triggers a recall in

00:33:14.640 his election in his constituency where he would have to fight a by-election against everybody

00:33:19.800 else so he was looking at this and thinking okay i'm about to be kicked off the server

00:33:23.980 if i rage quit now i can crash the lobby and then we'll be starting a new lobby on my terms on my

00:33:31.280 choosing on my narrative and and the reason why at the first blush that looked like a very clever move

00:33:38.040 is because let's say he had a by-election and everybody contested it and he won and he secured

00:33:46.100 his mandate if parliamentary standards then a couple of months later says okay you need to do 0.78

00:33:51.040 a by-election and he's like well i literally just won one yeah it makes them look ridiculous it

00:33:56.720 completely disarms their process he takes all of the power away from his critics turns it to himself

00:34:02.820 puts it on clacton and if that's how it went that would have been a brilliant political move

00:34:08.600 pause there right so yeah you you are right but i don't want to get ahead of ourselves yes so

00:34:12.200 yes in in the abstract this seems actually and we thought initially oh this is actually a very

00:34:18.360 smart political move um not only are you presaging all of those things as you said um but what he's

00:34:23.720 done here has very aggressively captured the frame yes he said no look to the to the people

00:34:28.100 in clacton who voted for me um i've i've decided that i'm going to follow the andy burnham playbook

00:34:33.660 now i actually didn't get the link up for this but andy burnham didn't ask me anything on reddit

00:34:37.240 where kemi bay knocked over why aren't you calling a general election andy he said well the people

00:34:40.720 of makerfield have just endorsed me therefore i have a democratic mandate now i don't live in

00:34:45.500 makerfield i wouldn't have voted for andy burnham yes why the hell should that override my ability

00:34:49.600 to have a vote on things, is a fair question.

00:34:51.920 But the press are acting as if Andy Burnham

00:34:55.020 is actually legitimate because of the win in Maker Fiat.

00:34:57.640 So we think it's a weak argument.

00:34:59.640 Nevertheless, if the establishment has accepted

00:35:02.080 that winning a by-election is legitimising enough

00:35:05.280 to be Prime Minister, it is clearly also legitimising enough

00:35:08.920 to be the leader of the largest polling party.

00:35:11.700 Yes, and Nigel Farage, when they say,

00:35:13.480 well, what's happening with this, Nigel?

00:35:15.220 You can say, well, I've won this by-election in Clacton.

00:35:17.760 People at Clacton have decided.

00:35:18.880 exactly the people of clacton decided so it's not really your business you know that's how i get to

00:35:22.540 this position in the first place yeah so regardless and it disarms parliamentary standards things

00:35:26.960 because they look absurd if they force another by-election yeah exactly and nigel forrest can

00:35:30.680 at least point to a segment of the public that doesn't care about the money issue because clacton

00:35:34.380 is disproportionately boomers um yes it is who agree with him on this and so he can just be like

00:35:40.040 no i don't it doesn't matter don't care and so he would have a good defense against the media yeah

00:35:45.000 Do you have the stats on Clacton in here?

00:35:46.920 Yeah, yeah, we'll get to it.

00:35:47.960 Okay, fine.

00:35:49.620 But the point is, in the abstract, on the surface,

00:35:54.360 this actually does seem like a clever political move

00:35:56.520 to disarm the current narrative.

00:35:58.480 But it's also a very, very defensive manoeuvre.

00:36:00.720 This is backed firmly against the wall.

00:36:02.840 This is, you know, enemy arrayed against them.

00:36:04.940 They're going to try and push them into the sea.

00:36:06.820 And so Nigel Farage is at right,

00:36:08.040 I'll summon up everything I've got

00:36:09.600 and play my last card to keep myself in the game.

00:36:13.360 this actually comes from a position of profound weakness on farage's part he's not taking enemy

00:36:18.120 territory right he's desperately trying to hold on to his own capital yes but i i clumsily stretched

00:36:24.760 for the julius caesar analogy he once was in a very inferior position i think it was pharsalus

00:36:30.240 or something like that yes and and he positioned basically his troops with a back to the sea so

00:36:34.520 all of his troops knew that if they don't win they're all going to die and they fought against

00:36:40.720 superior army uh he was the other roman guy that he was up against it was battle of pharsalus yeah

00:36:45.240 yes yeah pompey the great pompey yeah that was it pompey had a much larger army but yeah so he

00:36:49.940 played a weak hand well and um you know if as long as the uh all the other parties played along as

00:36:57.820 long as long as things were as you expected them to be yes this is a great maneuver right yes and

00:37:02.640 so um so for example these are the sort of projections that were coming out immediately

00:37:08.220 afterwards right yes yeah Nigel Farage I mean in 2024 he won 46 percent likely they'd win 48 percent

00:37:15.140 if conservatives won they'd probably get about 20 percent restore will get about 12 percent the left

00:37:20.000 doesn't really exist in Clacton at least to significant numbers uh yeah this you know that

00:37:26.660 looks reasonably um and we come on to this in a minute but you know restore would have had a good

00:37:32.580 result there they they would they would then have the narrative well we went from zero to seven

00:37:36.620 to 12 that that's a lovely narrative for them if they're willing to participate in circus show

00:37:43.460 sure but what was interesting is restore the first people to say yeah no we're not going to do that

00:37:50.020 actually um there if i mean if farage wins which he is likely to do of course then there will be a

00:37:55.940 second by election so we're going to participate in that we're not going to participate in farage's

00:38:02.240 little political stunt I mean again credit credit I mean this there is a reason we like Rupert oh

00:38:08.360 yeah his political instincts are top-notch here he saw through the the trap being set by Farage

00:38:15.040 yes effortlessly now we were both a bit concerned because yesterday evening I wasn't clear we didn't

00:38:21.080 know well my my advice to restore that we sort of back-challenging as I was saying one don't run

00:38:26.960 two if you do run for god's sakes put up your best media performance like a media performer

00:38:32.280 like a charlie downs or something and just use it as a national stage to put your issues and your

00:38:38.520 advice was was plain simply it was just don't run yeah but it turns out that he he got there all by

00:38:43.620 himself right just as quickly so yeah exactly so um but very sensible and and because this

00:38:49.320 what farage is doing here is he's turning this into a story right he's turning this into the

00:38:54.400 same story that andy burnham used in makerfield because andy burnham went to the people of

00:38:58.780 makerfield and said look this is a pact between me and you to go against the establishment of

00:39:02.960 the labor party and i'll be your man to overthrow the establishment in labor and bring labor back

00:39:08.320 to caring about the people of manchester and makerfield restoring the labor party to what

00:39:13.040 it should have been nigel frage is making that same argument to the people it's not quite as

00:39:17.680 bad as saddam hussein's um presidential um referendum where they said would you would

00:39:23.140 you like to back saddam is saying or have your family tortured to death and 98 percent of people

00:39:27.340 went with it but but it but nevertheless it would have been a strong mandate all the same sure but

00:39:32.520 it's the same it's the same narrative and this narrative is a strong narrative actually what

00:39:37.600 he's doing in this is making the people of clacton the protagonists of the election right what he's

00:39:43.340 saying is i've decided the people of clacton should be the judges of my actions and therefore

00:39:47.080 this will be a people versus the establishment by election i'm on the side of the people the

00:39:51.320 establishment are the ones who are constantly snipping at me and trying to overthrow me

00:39:54.540 through foul means not through elect democratically uh justified means so the people of clacton become

00:40:02.960 the protagonists and that's a that's a powerful narrative to get sucked into this exactly the

00:40:07.060 same narrative that burnham used to make you are the protagonists now of politics this this is the

00:40:12.340 first 30 seconds of an elmer fudd cartoon where he's pointing his shotgun at wiley coyote um and

00:40:18.820 he's about to pull the trigger and as long as somebody doesn't flip that barrel around

00:40:22.240 you know he's won well anyway yes like i said this power i don't appreciate it too much but the

00:40:28.460 powerful narrative and so it makes sense to not try and intercede in that narrative if you're not

00:40:33.880 already involved in that narrative it's gonna be very difficult to say actually you shouldn't be

00:40:37.820 the protagonist of well again to reach another clumsy military analysis um if the enemy general

00:40:44.860 says i want to fight at this time on this battlefield it's probably wise not to participate

00:40:50.680 yes yes yeah yeah that's exactly it don't let the enemy choose the grounds of the battle yes

00:40:54.920 um but the so it's it's it's very difficult to incede in what is already a dialectic that is

00:41:00.880 happening the media have been attacking him on these grounds farage is responding on these grounds

00:41:05.360 i don't even know what argument you'd have to make to come in and kind of overturn this whole

00:41:10.360 dialect because this is the thing that the story that everyone's focused on and farage is playing

00:41:14.260 into the story and instead of having to wait to september for the parliamentary um standards

00:41:19.060 thing to come to their conclusion he neutralizes it here and now done and dusted not not my problem

00:41:23.620 not getting involved right so very smart and then that started a bit of a uh a cascade effect

00:41:30.100 because all of the other parties realized oh actually we don't have to participate either

00:41:34.200 yes kemi so so rupert got there very very quickly yes kemi then realized oh hang on

00:41:40.440 then labor realized then the lip dems realized and the greens had said oh no we will but then 1.00

00:41:45.160 they vacillated they they u-turned they said they're the dumbest of all of them yes they are 0.99

00:41:49.580 uh but then they oh no actually we see what everyone's doing here we'll yeah they figured 0.99

00:41:53.640 it out and that left uh zia yusuf and richard tice going oh they're they're just cowards they 0.57

00:42:00.040 don't think they'd have a chance they're chickens it's like no actually they're just walking into

00:42:05.220 a trap exactly everyone's seen the trap that you've laid and rupert low being the the smartest

00:42:10.840 of them obviously uh showed the way where it was like actually if you don't engage in this game

00:42:16.600 then barrage is playing the game on his own and it okay he wants to make turkeys of the loss of you

00:42:23.600 well you know what if what if there's only one candidate outside of those come of the hour

00:42:32.200 come of the bin yeah so count bin face did declare himself now count bin face for anyone who doesn't

00:42:40.180 know uh is a joke candidate in the long and hallowed tradition of the british public

00:42:45.460 fielding joke candidates in their elections uh they usually get about 100 votes and nobody cares

00:42:52.540 you know the like you but the joke the joke is the persistence and he keeps doing it election

00:42:59.020 after he normally runs against the party leader so he ran in makerfield he did and he just keep

00:43:03.740 stood on the stage next to andy burnham andy burnham was in every election for the last

00:43:08.020 whatever it is 10 years now you have to look at the site of your new prime minister giving his

00:43:13.540 acceptance speech next to a man wearing a costume of a bin yes and this this actually flips the

00:43:22.040 narrative completely because now instead of nigel farage versus the establishment yeah he is the

00:43:27.480 establishment of clangton he is the joke versus the jester right so now it's the king versus the

00:43:34.380 jester as okay nigel this was actually like you you have actually been uno reversed by the 0.62

00:43:41.660 establishment here because you assumed that an election was something everyone would want to

00:43:46.340 pile into and you could win on a level playing field of them all trying to unseat you'd be able

00:43:52.440 to win but if actually they're like no we um we refuse to fight you on this and you're just left

00:43:58.360 there fighting with a an actual joke candidate you also become a joke candidate and and there's

00:44:05.140 no way for him to win now if if the other party stick to this he can't win because okay what

00:44:11.540 happens now let's say he gets 90 of the vote and he says this is a great victory everybody's going

00:44:17.040 to say yeah you've got 90 against a bin yeah and that makes him look like a joke right what if he

00:44:22.220 gets 55 percent like um you nearly lost to camp in face yes what if he loses to camp in face so

00:44:29.080 let's say you get 85 55 like andy burnham did in makerfield he you know what does that look like

00:44:34.800 okay yeah you won but you if you'd won 55 against everybody else or even just one of them if even

00:44:40.740 just the tories or the store or whoever had stood against him a sensible and he got 55 he could say

00:44:46.100 yeah i've won i've got my mandate but if you get 55 against a bin it's like why did you only get

00:44:51.560 55 percent against a pin but also it doesn't matter because you were you were literally

00:44:55.620 fighting against a comedian yes but you were literally fighting against the comedy character

00:44:59.720 who goes there just to make it there was no way to not look absurd right and and it gets worse

00:45:03.960 than that right what if he doesn't get 50 against one other candidate who's a pin well that's that's

00:45:09.600 we'll come okay i mean i'll run my numbers when it comes to this but it is but the funny exactly

00:45:15.660 so the the very the very nature of what he was trying to achieve here to i'll win my mandate back

00:45:21.160 is now not possible no because there's no one to win two you know there's no opponent he can

00:45:26.960 overcome to win the mandate because any any you know he can win by 95 or whatever yes it doesn't

00:45:33.080 matter it doesn't matter it was count bin face no you were running unopposed apart from the joke

00:45:37.960 candidate which you're now taking pride in having beaten like there's no win here now so actually

00:45:42.600 it's a bit if you come in in the morning and and you're really impressed and say i beat my children

00:45:47.620 an arm wrestling competition it doesn't matter how much you beat them by i am not going to be

00:45:51.940 impressed by that nailed it he my son just couldn't you know exactly that's exactly what's

00:45:56.740 happening here right yes so no matter what happens the victory has been stolen from farage and the

00:46:01.140 mandate that he would recover cannot now be recovered but now he is also in for a month or so

00:46:07.400 of campaigning in his own constituency for a by-election he called against nobody of any

00:46:14.380 importance and and this and there's so many layers to the hell that reform is now in yes the level 0.78

00:46:20.200 one is they're running running against a bin and even if they win they don't win right the level

00:46:24.960 two of hell right is because faraj won last time not with an absolute majority he won with 46 percent

00:46:31.720 of the vote it's actually possible if everybody else votes for the bin that the bin wins so he

00:46:38.160 has to take this election serious really serious he has to take a joke election seriously he has

00:46:45.100 to mobilize all of the activists yeah he has to say to all of the the form candidates yeah if you

00:46:52.060 want to be a candidate at the next election you have to turn up and clap they have to take a joke

00:46:57.260 election seriously right and then the third layer of hell for reform right is that because this

00:47:04.100 doesn't look like a serious election even though he has to take it seriously and his activist has

00:47:08.600 to take it seriously and his whole party has to take it seriously there is nothing to stop the

00:47:13.220 parliamentary standards thing saying yeah you did break the rules 10 day suspension and then they

00:47:17.460 have another election right so he has to march all of his reformed voters up the hill to vote

00:47:22.260 for him against a candidate activate activating all the all the activists and then he has to do

00:47:28.300 it all over again and also a fourth layer is no one else has to take it seriously so he in his

00:47:34.960 little bubble is taking this deeply seriously but we're all just going to be laughing at him

00:47:39.080 yes he's going to be in the middle of the arena of politics with everyone just laughing at him

00:47:42.700 yes so you've made yourself a national this is a national humiliation ritual he now has to turn

00:47:48.140 out his voters and his activists twice yes once for the joke election which he cannot afford to

00:47:54.000 not take seriously because he has to because he doesn't have okay against a normal election he

00:48:00.700 wins yeah the second election he probably doesn't have to right no the second election is actually

00:48:05.480 easy but he still has to take that one seriously right because he's he's activated everybody for

00:48:10.640 a joke he has to he has to beg the voters please actually turn up please actually go i know i'm

00:48:17.280 running against a bin but please actually go to the polling because if you all assume that i'm

00:48:21.640 going to win and everybody else and everybody else's and and the british public will do this

00:48:26.520 right so a few years ago um the government put up a they were going to name a boat yes they were

00:48:32.740 going to put up name a boat an arctic um explorer or something like that and they put up various

00:48:37.120 sensible names and somebody put up boaty mcboat face everyone's like that's my name and it won

00:48:42.420 by a bloody mile so the british public love a joke when they see one they love to be able to

00:48:48.860 Screw the establishment.

00:48:50.000 Yes.

00:48:50.420 They love to be like,

00:48:51.020 oh, right, you're giving us the option to vote

00:48:52.980 on something we think is trivial.

00:48:54.540 Yes.

00:48:54.920 Oh, okay.

00:48:55.780 We'll vote for Boaty McVoteface. 1.00

00:48:57.360 We'll vote for Count Bimface, mate. 1.00

00:48:59.320 You know, like,

00:49:00.060 this is the danger that Nigel Farage is down.

00:49:02.620 He's going to have to go all guns blazing

00:49:05.020 twice and hope people don't get pissed off.

00:49:08.080 The harder he goes,

00:49:09.740 the more funny it would be 1.00

00:49:11.180 to vote for Count Bimface. 1.00

00:49:13.160 Yes. 1.00

00:49:13.420 Like, the funnier it would be because,

00:49:14.620 well, I mean, you know.

00:49:16.720 I mean, and as to the reform voters,

00:49:18.140 I mean, I've seen this already, right?

00:49:20.340 I had people, because obviously we're associated with Restore,

00:49:24.560 the amount of people who were quote-tweeting me,

00:49:27.140 and you as well, over the past few months with Makerfield,

00:49:30.200 and saying, Restore has to stand down.

00:49:33.380 And I logged the name of many of them.

00:49:35.240 There's this one guy, Jack something, he's come on here in the past.

00:49:39.000 And he was always pushing, pushing, pushing.

00:49:41.160 Restore needs to stand down.

00:49:43.160 Now, they're all, Restore needs to stand.

00:49:46.400 Please, anybody stands.

00:49:47.720 yeah before two weeks ago it was you know there's something wrong with you if you don't stand down

00:49:52.920 and now it's there's something wrong with you don't stand i don't want to split the vote yes

00:49:56.620 we don't want to split we don't want to split the vote we're giving it all to an idol you know

00:50:00.660 against a bin and and and and the hilarity of the the mental contusions well this is the reforms

00:50:08.580 are going to have to go through now this is going to be the most exciting campaign i've seen because 0.93

00:50:14.200 i mean imagine imagine the hustings right niger farage and count bin face but the thing is okay 0.95

00:50:20.580 we just have to make a field question time do we get the clients in question time with niger and 0.69

00:50:25.700 ben and fiona bruce yes like do we get that like the whole thing becomes entirely farcical and

00:50:33.220 there's no way for him to not look absolutely absurd exactly the whole thing becomes a national

00:50:38.940 ritual humiliation before the entire nation and he brought it upon himself because he made a mistake

00:50:45.440 ages ago and just didn't cop to it right that's what this comes down to once again nigel frange 0.69

00:50:51.140 has made a rod for his own back yes and is literally going to embarrass himself publicly

00:50:57.980 the thing the second thing though is that the media is going to make a national celebrity out

00:51:02.900 of count bimface yes right now just to be clear i think count bimface is a kind of political

00:51:07.900 equivalent of led by donkeys right everything he says is completely within the the starmerite

00:51:14.920 frame of politics he's not going to say anything does he does he talk about normal politics much

00:51:19.280 i've only ever heard him oh he makes jokes oh i will build one social house or something you know

00:51:25.000 i'm going to nationalize a dell it's it's it's frivolous trivial like led by donkey style humor

00:51:29.880 yeah it's just like okay liz truss or a lettuce you know it's that kind of yeah i i would say

00:51:35.240 serious political advice because we are now in the world where we have to take this serious but

00:51:41.280 if count bin face if you're watching my serious political advice is do not ever step outside of

00:51:46.640 the joke yeah don't make any do never make any real world political statements because what you

00:51:52.700 need to be is you need to be the tasteless burger in the burger in the mcdonald's burger that is

00:51:57.680 non-offensive to everybody who doesn't want to vote for nigel farage there's there's actually

00:52:03.260 a way that you can make this worse for nigel farage oh go on then you could actually lean into

00:52:07.220 nigel farage's perceived corruption you could say yeah i don't think bin face could do that 0.63

00:52:11.600 well well i mean yes i suppose he could yeah you could say no i'm gonna make it so that nigel

00:52:16.980 farage can take unlimited amounts of donations from anyone anywhere in the world with no scrutiny

00:52:20.980 with no scrutiny at all because what's nigel farage is then gonna happen well no i want to

00:52:25.100 be scrutinized please good and then so now he's going back on his own narrative of i've done

00:52:29.100 nothing wrong you should stop asking it's a no-win scenario exactly like farage is actually in a

00:52:33.980 trap that's closing in on himself and it's just like if bin face just then goes to the other side 0.76

00:52:38.480 yeah you set your own trap nigel but bin face could actually go to the other side and just 0.89

00:52:43.380 start saying no no nigel farage deserves all this money deserve no scrutiny this election shouldn't 0.92

00:52:47.220 even be happening because he's done nothing wrong blah blah and then nigel farage has to basically 0.65

00:52:50.480 argue against his own case and it's just like oh my god okay well like what you know so like you

00:52:56.300 said don't step out of the joke but that could be included in the joke right yeah that's not a

00:53:00.500 serious yes uh position that anyone would adopt um and you can see he's already going on tv

00:53:05.960 they're already making a national celebrity of him and you remember this from makerfield where he um

00:53:12.040 walked up to the guy and the guy um oh my goodness 0.78

00:53:15.320 right a man with a bin on his head right that's the right response ha ha ha look at this prat 0.83

00:53:24.320 with the bin on his face right and you know he's just wondering yeah yeah joke candidate so you

00:53:28.780 take it i mean this this host actually didn't take him in as good a humor as he should have done

00:53:32.240 he should have just indulged the joke you know and be like right okay so you're an intergalactic

00:53:36.380 politician so this reporter was worried about being made to look silly yes stood next to a man

00:53:42.180 with a bin on his head yes if the reporter is thinking that over a 30 second clip in a in an

00:53:48.000 election where he's getting zero votes he got like 100 votes and it doesn't matter at all yes

00:53:52.140 how is Farage going to feel

00:53:54.040 that he's going to have to engage 1.00

00:53:56.160 with a bin 1.00

00:53:56.900 and I mean 1.00

00:53:58.800 Binface is making great hay out of it 1.00

00:54:01.120 because why wouldn't he 1.00

00:54:02.200 that was from the Makerfield count

00:54:03.840 but he got the Daily Star endorsement

00:54:06.060 in 2024

00:54:06.760 because it's just

00:54:08.140 it's just a joke

00:54:08.980 quite some price is capped at one pound

00:54:11.260 what's going to happen now

00:54:12.260 is that

00:54:13.000 the Tories

00:54:14.120 the Labour

00:54:14.720 the Lib Dems etc

00:54:15.540 the Greens

00:54:15.960 they're not going to say

00:54:17.520 vote Binface

00:54:19.040 what they're going to say 0.72

00:54:21.060 is something like

00:54:21.980 we're not standarding it and then all their proxies will say vote bin face and okay and and

00:54:29.600 this is this is where it gets bad right so so nigel farage's constituency clacton has about

00:54:33.780 90 000 people in it 80 000 so 78 000 no i think that no no it's about 90 000 people 78 000 are

00:54:41.800 registered to vote oh well yeah okay yes yeah right so so 90 000 people 78 000 registered to vote

00:54:47.520 45 000 actually vote we'll get to the numbers okay because i want to i want to i want to bring

00:54:54.600 this out a bit more because i mean this from the day so the daily star is a very low brow low

00:55:00.540 quality paper left-wing paper in britain so you can see what they're like oh yeah vote bin face

00:55:05.680 haha we think that the 2024 election is embarrassing and cringe right okay yeah fine

00:55:10.380 that's that's what joke candidates are for when you want to say i don't really want to participate

00:55:15.100 Have they got his policies at the bottom there?

00:55:17.000 I think it says...

00:55:17.740 National service for PMs, water chiefs to swim in UK waters,

00:55:20.820 and croissant prices capped at £1.10.

00:55:22.740 I mean, to be honest with you, I think they're all good ideas.

00:55:24.680 Actually, those are good.

00:55:25.560 Yeah, I like those.

00:55:26.840 So far, I haven't seen any politics from them I don't like.

00:55:29.700 I quite like the nationalisation of Adele as well.

00:55:31.700 I quite liked Adele, but I liked Adele when she was fat.

00:55:34.040 I don't like her when she's thin. 1.00

00:55:36.120 She lost... 0.99

00:55:36.660 Adele, the singer, she lost loads of weight,

00:55:38.540 and I was just like, I'm not into her now.

00:55:40.180 So, you know, make Adele fine.

00:55:41.660 I don't know who that is.

00:55:42.320 Should be a pledge.

00:55:42.900 but um anyway so the point being it then makes everyone involved look ridiculous and so what's

00:55:49.360 this this is great from bbc breakfast you know if i get the 10 nominations because hey look

00:55:56.420 there's no guarantee i'm standing for the election as i'm sure you know i'm i'm game but i have to get

00:56:02.460 the signatures from 10 local inhabitants otherwise this is a this is a non-starter and then of course

00:56:08.040 I will tailor my manifesto to the local area as always.

00:56:13.040 But most of my national policies will remain.

00:56:15.640 Building at least one affordable house, nationalising Adele, 1.00

00:56:19.780 bring back CFAX and, of course, moving the hand dryer in the gents' toilet 0.55

00:56:24.860 in the Crown and Treaty pub Oxbridge to a more sensible position

00:56:29.500 because, as you know, it's a national issue.

00:56:32.900 Those policies didn't go down too well, did they,

00:56:35.560 with the good people of Makerfield?

00:56:36.820 I believe you got 95 votes at the recent by-election.

00:56:39.960 So how are you hoping to do any better?

00:56:42.920 What a disgracefully scornful tone.

00:56:46.160 How dare you?

00:56:47.140 95 actual votes? 1.00

00:56:49.520 That's a Dolly Parton.

00:56:51.140 95, just one shy of a reversed 69,

00:56:55.380 which I scored against Boris in an Oxbridge sports hall in 2019.

00:56:59.940 So I'm cock-a-hoop.

00:57:01.020 I'm over your moon. 0.90

00:57:02.320 I'm over my moon.

00:57:03.680 I'm doing very well.

00:57:04.580 I came seventh out of 14.

00:57:06.140 mean? I mean, what more do you want? What do you say to those other parties who have decided not

00:57:12.120 to field candidates in Clacton? Well, I mean, that's for them, isn't it, mate? That's democracy.

00:57:19.660 They can choose to run away from my beneficence and magnificence. Or maybe they just noticed that

00:57:27.260 Nigel is up to a rather peculiar hissy fit, and they're keeping their powder dry for a second

00:57:34.400 by election when of course the uh parliamentary committee reports but uh interestingly you see

00:57:40.820 the thing is that second election which would cost 380 grand will only happen if nigel wins

00:57:47.940 this one so if you vote bin face you save the british taxpayer 380 000 pounds without me doing

00:57:56.300 anything that's a positive campaign yeah and if there's one thing that reform have not been able

00:58:01.920 to run so far it's a positive it's you know me versus the establishment that's still a negative

00:58:08.760 campaign and the funniest thing about this is like i love like it it makes everyone involved 0.56

00:58:14.620 look ridiculous right where's her poe face look at like serious perfect like what are you doing 0.66

00:58:19.660 woman because because she has to take it seriously just like frat is gonna have to take it seriously 0.99

00:58:24.820 exactly everyone involved is humiliated in public and he just gets to be a prat because he's a

00:58:31.060 jester he's a comedian and all credit to him that is the most credible um policy for saving money

00:58:37.360 that i have ever heard from a british politician he actually will save 300 grand it like it's it's

00:58:43.100 actually like there's something positive to the campaign it's kind of it's genuinely hilarious

00:58:47.720 right genuinely hilarious uh and so he's gonna get pumped by the media i mean they've already

00:58:52.040 done it this was gonna get pumped by absolutely everybody yeah but apart from reform but well

00:58:56.660 apart from reform but exactly but that's because nigel has got enemies everywhere right no one 0.97

00:59:00.460 wants to come out on nigel's side because well you've been a dick to everyone i think you've 0.94

00:59:04.440 shown the polling in the past that he's i know you saw it earlier today yeah um the the dissatisfaction 0.96

00:59:09.600 is like twice as 69 now yeah yeah and and that will be different in galacton but sure but anyway

00:59:14.940 the the media has already done this i mean this was from the makefield count where like you know

00:59:18.360 they just sort of gas it up it's like ah isn't this funny viewers declare the bonkers interview

00:59:22.020 the greatest two minutes of television ever but yeah okay so the the question is then well

00:59:26.540 could bin face bin face win and the answer is there is a non-zero chance of this now just to

00:59:32.060 be clear i'm sure nigel farage will win right i'm sure he'll win so i i put money on bin face i put

00:59:38.160 20 quid of course you face at 11 to 1 and i feel that 11 to 1 is fair i wouldn't have put money on

00:59:44.400 at say 6 to 1 but 11 to 1 feels about right so obviously i think nigel farage will win because

00:59:51.920 yes everyone assumes nigel farage will beat count bimface yes but but you've got to remember

01:00:01.400 that if there's no conservative no labor no liberal democrat green what you're looking at

01:00:07.180 there is about 25 000 votes for people who probably don't like nigel farage because they

01:00:12.860 have the opportunity to vote for him and they didn't and quick and i'll just run the maths

01:00:18.460 25 000 is bigger than 21 000 yeah and i mean i quickly run through the numbers i sort of started

01:00:25.340 on in the wrong place flackton 90 000 people 78 000 registered voters 45 000 of them actually

01:00:33.200 voted 58 turnout just on that the general election in 2024 was a 59 average turnout

01:00:39.780 so actually this was below average nigel forest didn't turn out new voters yes so there's still

01:00:44.840 40 of them who are just not bothering so 78 000 voters 45 000 actually voted 21 000 voted nigel

01:00:51.040 farage now what happens if nobody else is running now ashcroft polling has done this and they've

01:00:57.760 looked and we talked about it in a previous um version of this political chat the most favorable

01:01:03.220 to reform outside of reform is restore where 19 of them would consider voting reform if there

01:01:09.660 wasn't a restored candidate but that is the peak yeah very few labor lib dems greens and

01:01:16.160 independents um would vote for reform if there wasn't their preferred candidate and actually

01:01:21.100 the worst one is is the conservatives the people who are still voting conservatives

01:01:24.740 are incredibly unlikely to switch to reform if there isn't a conservative that's already happened

01:01:31.160 a lot of reforms um body is ex-conservative you're still a conservative today it's because

01:01:37.460 you don't like nigel you really don't like reform you really don't like nigel farage

01:01:41.220 so even if even if the left the left's penchant for tactical voting yes is okay so if if if these

01:01:51.260 people then say well i just don't like nigel farage i'll vote for whoever the other guy yes

01:01:55.260 it's not off the table no so my point is right of those 45 000 voters of the 25 000 who voted

01:02:01.800 for somebody else you need at least 10 to flip over to Nigel Farage right and then not only do

01:02:09.940 you need 10 to flip over to Nigel Farage you need every single person who voted for him at the last

01:02:15.640 election to also turn out for a joke election and you need none of those other 78,000 of the 78,000

01:02:23.200 minus 45 you know the gap between that sort of 35,000 yeah you you need none of them to think

01:02:28.180 this is funny yes i'm going to turn up and vote against him and you also need everybody who voted

01:02:33.980 for you before not to think oh this is in the bag it's a joke election i'll vote in the next one

01:02:38.460 and turn up which gets you to the point where okay this is and it's dangerous to make predictions

01:02:45.780 of course ahead of elections because it will all because you don't know what's going to happen you

01:02:49.560 don't know what's going to happen right you've got you've got such imperfect information and it's one

01:02:53.960 of those things where it will it will look up whatever happens it will look obvious after the

01:02:58.200 event okay like it looks obvious now okay yeah andy burnham is going to win makerfield because

01:03:03.740 it's always voted labour right so we don't but honestly right now we have no idea what's going

01:03:08.600 to happen i assume farage is going to but it's not a wild scenario to say that of those 21 000

01:03:15.340 reform voters um i don't know a third can't be bothered to turn up for this yeah and it's not

01:03:21.020 wild to say that all the rest of them

01:03:22.840 think actually no this is funny

01:03:24.780 and we're going to give him a kick in and we're going

01:03:27.000 to do it. It's not wild to think

01:03:29.080 This is funny slash I hate Nigel Farage

01:03:31.300 Yes it's not wild to think the

01:03:32.800 proportion of voters goes down 0.82

01:03:35.080 and Binface wins or the proportion of voters

01:03:37.000 go up because they think it's. So which brings 0.83

01:03:38.980 me back to the point he has

01:03:40.940 no choice but to throw

01:03:42.820 the absolute kitchen sink at this

01:03:45.060 election because if he

01:03:46.960 and just picture this right what 0.76

01:03:48.920 happens if he does lose to count Binface

01:03:50.900 obviously he's off the political map but reform itself becomes a joke and also also you're not 0.84

01:03:59.920 good at winning by-elections yes reform is not good at winning by-elections so like we're gonna

01:04:05.320 call a by-election it's like uh i don't know if you want to do that lads you know like you you are

01:04:10.560 not experts at these by-elections yes you've failed every single one and now this is your 0.91

01:04:14.540 capital city this is your this is niger farage's stronghold his fortress and and yeah exactly and 0.92

01:04:20.980 also if you lose the humiliation will be such that it's over for reform oh yes just over for 0.92

01:04:29.320 the entire party no like we're just gonna vote for count bim face party this is a torpedo

01:04:34.060 under the water line just no problem whatsoever the the risk here is monumental well like i said

01:04:40.440 i'm sure ferrars will win yes i'm sure that it won't go in the potential way that as you know

01:04:46.460 like i say i i'm happy with my 11 to 1 but put it this way right if i was handed a revolver

01:04:52.660 with with you know 12 12 holes in the uh in the chamber and one bullet in it i would not play

01:05:00.200 russian roulette no even though i expect to be absolutely fine even if that shut everyone up

01:05:05.300 is whining at me yes even to shut up the even to stop them trampling my flowers and turning up

01:05:10.400 my properties and stuff i would still not put a bullet to my head with a one in 12 chance of 0.96

01:05:15.400 blowing my brains out because blowing my brains out is a really bad thing yes and that's what 0.57

01:05:21.700 he's done and this this would be such an ignoble end to nigel farage's career as well and honestly

01:05:27.260 he doesn't deserve it because i i love the man for giving us brexit i think i think he should

01:05:31.820 be made a life peer and a good peer i'm talking about like a dukedom or an earldom or something

01:05:37.180 and he would have been useful

01:05:38.100 he would have been useful

01:05:39.020 and honestly what he should do is

01:05:40.980 if he doesn't like the press attention

01:05:42.680 nobody likes the way the press behaves in this country

01:05:45.620 if he doesn't like it

01:05:46.600 go to America

01:05:47.720 get a chat show host

01:05:49.500 make 20 million dollars a year

01:05:52.380 become an elder statesman

01:05:53.700 interject every now and again

01:05:55.300 and actually think it's like

01:05:57.580 it's disastrous for Nigel Farage personally

01:06:01.480 and the danger is

01:06:03.540 is that he tanks reform

01:06:04.980 but if he were to leave politics

01:06:07.160 and okay I say this I'm not advocating for this I'm not pushing this but at some point the left

01:06:15.180 is going to coalesce yes and at some point the right is going to have to coalesce that that

01:06:19.900 narrative about the right unifying for us is the blockage that's I don't think it should happen

01:06:25.020 before the election I don't think it should happen for a good time I would like to for it to happen 0.97

01:06:28.520 under our terms the nativists I want it to happen under our term but nevertheless if you are going

01:06:34.500 to concede that a unification of the right is going to happen at some point in the future

01:06:39.700 well you then have to consider okay what about next week then for example what would it look

01:06:44.940 like if it happened next week and it can't happen with Nigel Farage because of he is so brittle and

01:06:51.240 egomaniac that he's got so much personal eminently it can't happen so let's say he goes off to

01:06:57.160 America and becomes a chat show host um could I don't know what would happen before maybe

01:07:02.920 let's say robert jenry were to come in it would be difficult between him and kemi to tie up um

01:07:09.620 it might be less difficult for um rupert i like i say i don't want any of this to happen because i

01:07:14.720 want it to happen on our terms much further down the line but actually it's not wildly impossible

01:07:20.440 it's it's it's a non-zero probability to use that term that with now nigel frage in the frame

01:07:26.840 that the right could coalesce i don't know what that deal would look like and i'm not advocating

01:07:31.460 to be absolutely clear before anyone tries to clip me on this i'm not advocating for it but

01:07:35.280 it could actually happen so what the left have done here by forcing this situation

01:07:39.800 there is a there is a version of the future where it comes back to bite them massively yes

01:07:46.160 there is a version of the future where basically they expel farage from british politics

01:07:50.480 yes and clear the ground and he was and he's the number one blocker to a right reunion

01:07:56.380 absolutely and the i mean it literally is the argument well nigel farage is already here

01:08:01.160 therefore don't split the vote well if nigel farage disappears there's no argument against restore

01:08:05.100 and the conservatives are incredibly weak to the restore argument because they're the ones who've

01:08:09.680 caused all the problems i mean this is why nigel farage initially in 2024 said i'm not taking any

01:08:14.500 tory poison in my party because it was clear that he'd be able to storm steamroll them as well yes

01:08:19.360 but um but yeah things have shaken out poorly for him i guess that that i mean my my version of

01:08:24.360 uniting the right would be the restore you know start leading in the polls and there's a tiny

01:08:30.860 rump of reform and conservatives and at that point it's like okay well yeah you can come in

01:08:35.260 and sit in the back room or something something like that sure but uh anyway so this is what it

01:08:40.620 comes down to the battle of clangton um and i mean honestly he's using the ukip colors yeah yeah

01:08:47.300 it's using the ukip colors yeah uh but the thing is right there's there's no there's no real win

01:08:51.480 condition for farage as we said no but also remember like you were saying oh it's it's you

01:08:56.060 know i i'm sure it's i'm sure farage is going to win right but there's going to be like a month

01:09:00.300 long national media campaign where all of the media circus is focused on this people you know

01:09:05.240 the media is going to go to clackton and few people you know who you're voting for farage

01:09:08.380 or bin face blah blah blah right and they'll make bin face a national celebrity and it'll become a

01:09:13.760 kind of cause de celeb it'll become a fun like national project to oh let's let's get bin face

01:09:20.740 into parliament right that and so actually turning out that disaffected 40 and the labor

01:09:27.560 tory and greens and whatever proportion of the non-voters decide to get exactly because they

01:09:33.000 think it's funny exactly right so you've got the proportion of those people who vote for the non 0.94

01:09:37.300 reform parties and the 40 who don't vote and you're doing it because we all hate nigel farage 0.83

01:09:42.980 well yeah two-thirds of the people in this country do hate nigel farage and it's been that's bigger 0.82

01:09:47.340 than one third and that's way bigger than one third yeah and if it's all focused on the one

01:09:51.620 joke candidate because no no one has to take responsibility for bin face it's like no no we

01:09:55.580 just hate you and we're just doing this for fun like it doesn't impact anything it's not going

01:09:59.320 to determine the prime minister well it might determine a future prime minister but it's not 0.92

01:10:02.680 going to like ruin the country now i think i think i heard lozza fox considering running

01:10:07.240 that is the wrong move you're not you're going to get beaten by count bin face mate don't bother

01:10:11.200 like let let bin face deal with farage yes because at the end of the day at the very best

01:10:16.540 Farage wins and he retains his seat

01:10:18.640 until the next bi-lection. And if you're Loza Fox's

01:10:20.780 reclaim party, actually

01:10:22.560 you want a chaos

01:10:24.380 going through the right because it will

01:10:26.460 break things open for you. So yeah, don't

01:10:28.520 I mean, to anybody considering running

01:10:30.480 Just don't. Don't do it. Just don't.

01:10:32.580 Literally make it so it's just

01:10:34.080 Farage versus Ben. And one more thing I'll pick up on

01:10:36.580 is you just mentioned you're sure

01:10:38.080 Farage will win. I mean, he must,

01:10:40.640 right? Yeah. It

01:10:42.380 seems incredibly likely. I know.

01:10:44.480 But the thing is, again,

01:10:46.100 That's my point. He can't assume that. And the example I'm going to use is 1997, Michael Portillo.

01:10:52.300 So Michael Portillo was expected to become Tory leader after the 1997 general election.

01:10:59.520 He was in a safe conservative seat. And it was so safe that he said to all of his activists,

01:11:05.600 there's literally no point campaigning for me. Go to the neighbouring constituencies and campaign for them.

01:11:11.580 And then on the night of the 1997 general election, he lost his seat.

01:11:16.100 so and and and basically that sent you remember do you remember watching the footage i went back

01:11:21.360 yes watch his face yes and he was on tv oh for anybody who is a sufficient political nerd of a

01:11:29.180 sufficient age that is seared into your memory right portillo seems like a decent chap as well

01:11:34.200 i like portillo oh yeah i can i campaigned i went on his um leadership campaign when he did

01:11:38.440 ultimately get back in the one he had on barton street um but my point is it has been seared into

01:11:44.860 the brain of all politicos it doesn't matter if you think you're going to win you give it your

01:11:51.560 all otherwise you get portilloed and the and as we've done on the maths here it's not absurd that

01:11:57.640 bin face does win just because we think farage is going to win it's not absurd that he doesn't

01:12:03.220 but the harder he pushes it the more seriously he looks exactly and the more funny it is to

01:12:09.920 actually help bin face win rather than reform and so anyway all i'm saying is right well

01:12:16.140 this is this is a problem of nigel farage's own making he thought he was going to judo flip the

01:12:22.320 entire political establishment set a trap and he forgot to get out of it yeah he set a trap for

01:12:26.240 himself that he is now within and if it is literally just him and bin face that's probably

01:12:32.200 the worst of all possible outcomes that he has decided for himself so at least it's going to be

01:12:39.680 good content oh yeah

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - July 08, 2026

The Battle of Clacton

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