The Death of the Tory Longhouse
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 9 minutes
Words per minute
195.47873
Harmful content
Misogyny
22
sentences flagged
Toxicity
36
sentences flagged
Hate speech
39
sentences flagged
Summary
It's election day in the UK, and there's a lot to play for in the upcoming election, including who's going to be the next Prime Minister and who's not. And what better way to celebrate than with a chat about Tory hero Tim Stanley and his use of the term 'mummy'.
Transcript
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Hi folks, welcome back to another one of these political chats that Dan and I have been having.
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I think it's worth talking about what Nigel Farage is describing as the end of the Conservatives
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as a national party. Because actually, I think it might be on the horizon.
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I do love to see it. We were leading the Zero Seeds campaign.
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The concern is, though, they're not a foe that can be defeated. This is Terminator 1000.
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You know, it will split and it will reform. And it will come back looking like something else.
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Yeah, it'll come back with a turquoise rosette.
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Which apparently, I mean, it looks, we'll get into it in detail, it looks like it's happening.
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But I've been saying for a while now that I think this is just the last Labour government
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that we're ever going to see. And that means essentially the death of the 20th century consensus.
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So, all's to play for. And as we come to the end of this podcast, you'll see exactly
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what I mean when I say all's to play for. Because there is no clear winner or frontrunner
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But before we go on, Islander 5 is still on sale, but won't be for much longer.
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It is honestly the most, I'm unbelievably proud of Islander.
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But anyway, amazing authors, beautiful piece. It's about heroism and modernity and how modern
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politics is trying to kill the hero. But I think, as we can see from Trumpian escapades
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recently, whether you agree with them or not, there's a heroic will in there still.
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Exactly. So anyway, let's begin with people who aren't heroes. Tim Stanley and the weird
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conservatives. Mummy is moving to where the votes are. This is not the only article
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that Tim Stanley has used the term mummy for Kemi Badenock, because there is a really
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weird aspect to the sort of traditional conservatives, you know, the kinds I'm talking about.
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I mean, if you are sufficiently posh, it's acceptable to call your mother mummy.
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If you went to a fee-paying school that's at least like 13, 14 grand a term, you can get
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away with calling your mother mummy. But it gets really weird when you're applying it to
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Yeah, it's really weird and really cringy, because what it implies is these guys have
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a weird relationship with their mums. And they probably called mummy their nurses or something
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The sort of Churchill was more attached to his letters.
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You know, it's that kind of old style of aristocratic.
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Beaten up Land Rover, massive country estate, that kind of vibe.
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Yeah, but also sort of like Victorian era, you know, that is sort of a Victorian hangover
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where they have like the live-in nanny, like Jacob B. Smallcats, right?
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You know, he probably calls his nanny mummy, right?
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And he probably calls his mother, mother, rather than mum.
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Something like that, right? So there's a weird relationship these guys have with women who
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are in a matronly role, but are not their mothers. Whereas for me, I just call my mum mum.
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You know, she's been my mum my whole life, and I've got a...
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What I think is a really normal relationship with my mum, really good relationship, love
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my mum. But the conservative men of this stripe, this aristocratic stripe, seem to form attachments
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with authoritative women who are not their mothers, in lieu of having a good relationship
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I wonder if it's partly that, but it's also the sort of the legacy Thatcher fetish thing
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Yeah, I mean, this is what Benedict here points out. We're now going to have to sit through
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the weird Tory yearning for Thatcher, which means people suggesting Katie Lam as leader
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because she has the same hair and speaks in complete sentences.
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I mean, that sounds ridiculous on the face of it.
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Because that is actually how the Tories operate.
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Everything is about trying to get back to the 1983 election.
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Yes, where mummy was in charge and beating up the unions and the RGs and crushing the
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left and all this sort of stuff. It's like, yeah, but why can't a man do it? Where's your
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heroic will? It's like, no, I need mummy to do it. And so, as you pointed out, there are
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lots of people who are posting images like this. Conservative activists who desperately want
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a Yoruba mammy to be the surrogate mother figure who solves all their problems.
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Yeah, I mean, I saw this the other week and pointed it out to you and I thought, oh, that's
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an interesting sort of, you know, relic. But then I've basically seen like a hundred of
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these pop up in my timeline. Tories are just going around generating exactly this kind of
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thing on AI all day long and getting very excited about it.
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If you have a weird relationship with your mother, the Conservative Party is the party
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The Conservatives, not a secret, the Conservatives are a much more gay party than the Labour Party
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Can we quantify that? I mean, anecdotally, I know this is definitely true.
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I don't have the number. Oh, no, we can actually. Yeah, sorry. No, I remember. I looked this
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up. So, say, the 2019 election, there were 43, I think it was, MPs who are
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openly gay and half of those were Conservatives.
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I can believe in my very brief time, because I did my work experience when I was 16 at Conservative
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Central Office. And one of the things I was involved in then is somebody had been blackmailing
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the party with, here's a list of all your closeted gay MPs. Because it was a bit different back
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then. We didn't like the fruits back then. And he sent this in and they said, right, try
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and figure out who this guy is so we can have a word with him. And there was all sorts of
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names on there. William Haye was at the top of the list, but I don't think he's ever officially
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been declared there. I mean, he's got a wife and everything, but, you know.
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I imagine a lot of them do. Yes. But the point is, this is a long-running known property
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Is that there are lots of members of it who are gay. And now, I'm not making a judgment,
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you know, it's fine, it's, you know, there are gay people. But why aren't they in the Labour
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Party, which is an actively campaigning party for homosexual rights? Like, this wasn't an invention
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of the Conservatives. This is just the Conservatives being weak on every subject.
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Like, actually, a lot of the Labour frontbench are just, like, straight white men or women.
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Yes. You know, like, and the Liberal Democrats are even more just straight white English
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They're actually English as well. Not paper English, but actually English.
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Exactly. But the Conservatives are what the left claims to be. They actually are that
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thing. Yeah, no, we've got loads of foreigners, we've got loads of gays, very few
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straight white men. And the ones that we have, have a weird relationship with their
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mums. So trust us, we are the weirdos, and we're going to cosplay as, you know, respectable
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I mean, it's a big talking point for them. I mean, you know, first Jewish Prime Minister,
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They love their being, they love their sort of flagpole diversity moments.
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Yeah. I mean, they're everything that the Labour Party has made of them. Everything
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the Labour Party argues for, the Conservatives do.
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That's the difference. Like, the Labour Party is like the moral innovator in British politics,
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but the Conservatives are the Labour Party's executor. They're like, yeah, okay, we'll do
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that. Yeah, we'll do that. Yeah, we'll have, you know, all these women, we'll have all
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these foreigners, and, you know, we have gay rights, we have everything.
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That is the one thing they're Conservative for, everything Labour has ever achieved.
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That's what they... I mean, everything from, in the post-war period, the NHS. Why did
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the first Conservative government not scrap that? Well, because all they have ever done
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is conserved whatever the Labour Party have done.
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The British Nationality Act. Like, I mean, we could list basically...
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Everything from the Blairite era. Like, there are so many examples. But that's the point,
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isn't it? As you say. We'll skip over the list, trust bit. So, we'll get to Kenny Badenock
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the other day, sacking Robert Jemmerich, because they had found evidence that Jemmerich was looking
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to defect. Now, I, at first, thought, well, this is all pretty circumstantial. You know,
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like, we spotted Jemmerich and Farage having dinner. Conversations were leaked. He allegedly
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left a copy of his near-final resignation speech lying around. It's like, well, he could have been...
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That's a bit I don't believe. Yeah, I don't either. I mean...
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I think what happened is one of his aides flipped because he wants to stay in the Tories.
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Quite possibly. Who knows? And so, she booted him out with this. Now, this looks like a HR
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lady that is, via Zoom, giving me a dressing down because I didn't invite the women to a
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lad's night out or something. We have irrefutable evidence that Robert made one of our plus-size
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colleagues feel uncomfortable in a Zoom call, and he's now going to get a 45-minute lecture
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with a blurred background and a shitty mic before he gets his dismissal.
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Exactly. That is... And, you know, you're on warning two now, Robert. So, you know...
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You already complimented some young lass's hair a week ago, and you're on thin ice.
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Exactly. Exactly. Now, I don't doubt that the Tim Stanleys of the party were very thrilled
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by this. I doubt they were... Oh, God. Mummy is back. Mummy is putting her foot down. God,
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She's burning the heretic. Unfortunately, she's not in the strongest position to do that.
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No. And also, again, like, there's a distinct aspect of long-housing about this.
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Okay, if you want your mammy long-housing you in your party, that's great, but actually
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Yes. The upper-crust stories have got to remember that they look at this getting very excited,
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but most people are not going to look at this in the same lens at all. They're just going
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Why am I being berated by this immigrant woman?
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Why has she got this haughty attitude? Why, you know, this might, like you say, this might
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work for those Tories, but it doesn't work for most people. And so, let's, I mean, people
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were like, oh, well, you know, is Jenrick skipping because he's going to lose? And it's
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like, probably not, to be honest. Probably not. Jenrick was probably going to keep his
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seat as a Conservative. As you can see, he'd managed to weather reform quite well in the
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previous 2024 election, and the prediction was that he'd keep it for the next one. And
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he is the only, as far as I'm aware, Conservative constituency that had gained Conservative councillors
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Yeah. I mean, it's only a 3,500 majority, but in this day and age, I mean, it used to be
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the case, anything less than 12,000 was marginal. But in the modern era, 3,500 is actually a pretty
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solid lead. And you've got to remember that the Labour are going to collapse, and yes, reform
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would be a lot stronger. But that looks like a seat that he could quite credibly win.
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Exactly. Like, if you're Jenrick, and you're thinking, I'm going to go for the leadership,
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Yeah, and you've got the name recognition, whereas whoever they put up from reform probably
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So he could have stuck it out, waited for the, you know, Kemi to implode, and taken the
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leadership. And the other thing is, I'm not necessarily convinced that he was on the
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verge of jumping, because loads of people, loads of Tory MPs will have had a conversation
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with Nigel Farage, whether that means they're actually going to do it, but they're testing
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the waters and basically saying, look, can I get a plum job if I come over?
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Yes, and that's basically what Farage said. I mean, just to hammer on his constituency
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a bit, if I can scroll right to the bottom where they get to ethnicity, ethnic groups
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in his constituency, it's 96.3% white, which means English.
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Oh, right, where is that? Can I move there? Actually, Winchester's already that, but fine.
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Yeah, yeah, New York and Sherwood. So he's living in a little English ethnostate, hasn't
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been diversified yet. They're obviously broadly conservative, and he had been doing good work
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from the right in his activism and campaigning. So, like you say, I think that's a completely
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winnable seat for Jenrick. Well, you say he's doing good work. He is the entire Tory red
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meat department. He is. I mean, apart from him, it's what? Post-Blairite managerialists.
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Yeah, or at least he was the entire Tory red meat department. And so there's no reason to
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think that Jenrick was about. He's jumping ship because he thinks he's going to lose
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a seat, actually. There's no reason to think that at all. And like you say, there were
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belief among Tory MPs that he wasn't going to defect. There's no particular reason to
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That's my reading of it. I think that he did have the conversations with Farage, as a whole
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bunch of Tories will be doing at the moment. And he's sniffing the wind. And I bet Farage
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Yeah. And Farage actually even said this in the press conference. He said, I thought
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that maybe a dozen people were on the verge of going and it never went through.
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And not just that. It's, you know, everyone is thinking that the election is another three
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years out. So he might be just putting a couple of foundations down and say, I might
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build on that later. You know, I've had the conversations. Nigel is amenable to me coming
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over. I might do. I might not. Who knows? You know, I'll get the things prepared just
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in case. And, you know, we'll see which way the wind blows because, you know, the polls
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have been all over the place. So in two years time, maybe it is that actually conservatives
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are way above because of Jemmerich's constant, relentless right-wing act.
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Well, because Kimmy got kicked out and he's running it.
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Could be anything, right? So I think he was just hedging his bets. And in fact, unless he
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signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because a bit of paper with his name
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and doesn't mean it's real, says one MP ally. And I think they genuinely didn't see this
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coming. I think basically Kimmy has kind of acted a bit spontaneously with maybe a lack
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Well, I mean, it's good for her because she removes basically her only viable rival.
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It's bad for her that the only reason people were continuing with the toys, a lot of them,
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is because they thought they were going to get Jemmerich sooner rather than later.
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So, yeah, I mean, bold for her, but you now get to be the captain of the Titanic. Congratulations.
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Yeah. And I do think there's a bit of a lack of impulse control here because, you know,
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seeing this, it doesn't look like she had reached out to or interrogated Jemmerich in
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any of this. It looks like she'd made an executive decision.
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You're not saying that she's a low-time preference individual?
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Yeah. So, as you pointed out, Alex speaks to many of the MPs and a lot of them were clinging
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on to Jemmerich becoming the leader, right? Because she's not very popular. She's not
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It seems that someone might, it seems the country might actually prefer not a surrogate
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Who actually wants to do something. And, you know, Jemmerich, he's got lots of faults.
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I mean, just to be perfectly blunt, the top issue is immigration. And the Tories have picked
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a first-generation immigrant to lead their party.
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Jemmerich sounds like Rupert Lowe on immigration.
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And he was immigration minister during the whole Boris Waste.
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So that does somewhat mitigate against him being based.
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It does. But I think that's one of the things that's actually come out in, I think that's
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what's driven him to be such a right-wing outrider on the subject. Because he's consciously
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He can at least make the claim, well, look, I did resign. I walked away from this.
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Kemi has resigned when he was immigration minister under Boris.
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And he's come out and explained, I didn't agree with any of this.
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And Kemi has basically primed him to have this lovely narrative where he can say, look,
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I had to resign. I've been with this party since I was 16. So there was a lot of momentum
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there. But, you know, I had to resign. And honestly, I couldn't stand the Tories any longer.
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And I'm really contrite for my mistakes. And I think it's going to hold that line.
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It dovetails with what Suella Braveman said at NatCon in 2024, where she said, look,
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I wanted, I knew all the laws. I was a lawyer. So I knew the laws that were in place. And
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I went to Rishi Sunak and said, I can't get rid of, I can't stop immigration. I can't get
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rid of any of the illegals until these laws are repealed. Let me do it. And Sunak apparently
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said no. And so she, like the NatCon thing, you could tell that she was just kind of,
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right, I'm just going to go for it. And there was a kind of liberation in her saying this.
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So, you know, I'm not, I'm not saying they're faultless or anything like that. But the point
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is, it reveals that there was a pressure within the party and in the government to essentially
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maintain the status quo. And they weren't happy with it. Like they were speaking out about
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it before it was popular to do so. Um, so they, they, there is, there are some legs
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to this narrative, whether you, you know, whether they've been contrite enough over the
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damage that they've done or not, different question. So anyway, um, as people point out,
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it's like, it didn't really seem like Reform or Jemric knew this was coming. Uh, she does
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seem to have got the drop on them. And obviously you've got Fraser Nelson, who's just wrong on
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everything. It's like, well, hang on a second. How do we know that Jemric will help Reform's
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fortunes? They didn't like Zahawi. It's like, okay, yeah, brilliant. Uh, but anyway,
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so the, the sort of, there's some factor that I can think of. Yeah, I know. Right. So
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the, the, the mammy appreciators don't agree with this obviously, but Farage, uh, has done
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a few press conferences on this now. And he, in this one, he said, well, look, yeah, I just,
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I've spoken to a number of senior conservatives. We've had conversations and it's basically
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nothing was signed. You know, I absolutely believe that. Is this the one
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before, so this is after Jemric has been sacked by Kemi, but before he joined Reform?
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Correct. This was the one in the morning, 11 o'clock in the morning, and he did another
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press conference at 4.30. Now that press conference at 4.30 was to do with something else, but the
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Jemric news just overrid it completely. Um, and so, yeah, I mean, it's just, it was very
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clear that neither Farage nor Jemric had been planning for this to happen. Kemi impulsively
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acted and forced them to make a choice. And Farage was like, yeah, why not? Jemric's clearly
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like, yeah, okay, why not? And now this has kind of stolen any thunder from Kemi. Because
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rather than Kemi looking strong, it looks like she's kind of just accepted and capitulated
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that she wasn't. Yeah. I mean, if you're looking at it in terms of strength, I mean, is Nigel
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Farage stronger? Yes. Because he's got the heir apparent, he's got the Prince from over
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the water of the Tory party. Is Jemric stronger? Almost certainly because this has played out
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pretty much perfectly for him. He now gets to say, I resigned from the Boris Wave government
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and I didn't, I'm not a traitor to the Tory party. They kicked me out. Yep. Um, and he gets to-
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They betrayed the country. Yep. I pointed that out, then they ejected me. And they booted me
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forward. I've been raising this in the shadow cabinet and they couldn't take it. So they chucked
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me out. And he gets to plausibly spin his whole I'm contrite for the Boris Wave kind of thing coming
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in. Um, on the question of whether Kemi is stronger, um, I think Kemi herself is stronger
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because she loses a rival. The unfortunate thing is the Tory party is considerably weaker.
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Correct. And we'll, we'll come to that at the end, actually, because, uh, it's kind of weird. But
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anyway, so, um, I mean, people are like, oh, look, you've, you've always, you know, this was from 2025,
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only August, right? So you can tell this, this isn't something they've been planning for a long time,
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right? This, this was what, you know, six months ago. Right. You know, that they, that he's quoting
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Jemrick, uh, from 2022. So who's quoting him? Farage. Or Farage. So it's not like they've been
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in cahoots. Jemrick's always a fraud. I've always thought so. Well, if, if they have been having dinner
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and having conversations, they haven't been doing that for more than six months. Exactly. Right. They
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haven't been doing it for long. And so it looks like that Kemi, instead of taking any kind of,
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um, uh, uh, action that would have staunched the wound and quietened the doubts, you know,
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any, uh, sort of medical action to save the party. She instead is like, no, we can't save the limb,
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just cut it off. And it's like, okay, but why didn't you have dinner with Jemrick? Why weren't
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you charming him? Why weren't you being like, right, Robert, what are your ideas? You know,
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how can we make the Tory party a really, a real right wing, aggressive party that can outflank
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Farage, get all the populists on board and save the country in the way that you think?
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I mean, this is one of those dynamics in any alien organization is if, if you're, I don't
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know, the God Emperor or Starlink or, you know, an Elon Musk or me, you get to choose whoever
00:21:06.580
you want to come and work for you and they will beat up after your door. In most organizations,
00:21:11.500
especially ones that are undergoing stress, you have to work with what you've actually
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got. And yes, your people might not be the perfect people that you would ideally choose,
00:21:18.860
but you work with what you've got and you make the best of it. And she's certainly in
00:21:25.280
And, and yeah, I mean, and, and party management is, is, is enough about retaining your top talent.
00:21:31.020
And she should have been doing essentially what Farage has just done, which is, okay,
00:21:35.440
this is a very ambitious guy. Instead of making a rival of him, you should make an ally of him.
00:21:41.400
So he bolsters you because it shows that the people around you and who support you are capable,
00:21:47.120
competent and heading in the direction that you're pointing everyone to go in. Right.
00:21:51.520
So, you know, that's leading instead. She's like, Oh God, I'm going to silo him. I'm Oh God,
00:21:55.980
he's posting more stuff on social media. That's not good. Oh, he's had a conversation
00:21:59.440
with Nigel Farage right out. Right. It just looks weak.
00:22:01.680
Cause I mean, he, he, he came a very close second in the leadership campaign and she gave
00:22:09.680
Yeah. That was, that was a mistake. It should have been, it should have been shadow
00:22:14.680
Well, yeah, you know, something, something, deputy shadow prime minister.
00:22:17.660
Well, yeah, yeah, yeah. But Alina promised him that position, you know, keep him on side
00:22:20.660
and whatnot. But instead, no, now she's lost one of the few valuable Tories that there are left.
00:22:28.880
Anyway. So Jemric has this press conference and honestly, it was quite good. You know, he's
00:22:35.180
like, I resigned on principle, which is a plural, as you said, the Tories, he said it to the Tories
00:22:40.280
over and over that he wasn't happy with the way things going. They didn't care. So he is now
00:22:44.100
putting country over ambition, plausibly saying, look, I know I can't become the leader of
00:22:50.080
Zia Yusuf, who both personally own the party. There's no democratic mechanism within the
00:22:54.420
party. So I couldn't possibly oust Nigel Farage. And if Farage...
00:23:00.080
I can't possibly ousting Nigel Farage. And if something were to happen to Farage, Zia Yusuf
00:23:04.740
takes over. And so I won't, you know, what he's saying with this, I put country over ambition
00:23:08.960
is, I accept I'll never become the leader of that, whereas I could quite easily. I was
00:23:12.860
the heir apparent of the Conservatives. But I'm not going to go for that. I think that
00:23:18.440
Well, I mean, for the number two spot in reform, I mean, what's he up against? Zia Yusuf?
00:23:24.040
I mean, that's not going to fly in reform. Richard Bloody Tice? No, I think not.
00:23:29.740
No. And the question is, how long does this alliance last, right? Yes.
00:23:35.100
Farage felt threatened by Rupert Lowe, just contradicting him in public.
00:23:38.840
Well, I mean, the very same press conference. I mean, you mentioned that he said, you know,
00:23:42.800
Nigel is the leader. He said that about five or six times, because he understands how brittle
00:23:47.880
Farage is. So it's like every second sentence was, and of course, Nigel is the leader.
00:23:53.360
Nigel's the man. Just letting you know, boss, because you're incredibly fragile.
00:23:57.840
The thing is, Rupert Lowe wasn't entirely dissimilar. He wasn't like, I need to replace
00:24:03.220
He just didn't approve of the way that things are being done. But anyway, so Farage says
00:24:09.060
that this will bring a lot more people to the party, and that Jenrick and I are on the
00:24:12.160
same page on everything, which is remarkable, because Jenrick's pretty far right, actually.
00:24:17.000
Well, isn't a Farage quote that Jenrick is well to the right of me?
00:24:23.960
It was something like, at the next election, Robert Jenrick will be substantially to my
00:24:30.340
That's true. That was about six months ago or something, incidentally.
00:24:33.020
Yes. And if there's one thing that Farage cannot tolerate, I mean, this is what me and
00:24:37.320
Beau got kicked out for. It was for being five inches to the right of Farage five minutes
00:24:42.920
And that is enough. And with that, well, that's how Rupert went.
00:24:48.280
And so, yeah, that's literally it. And like I've discussed before, Farage is always on
00:24:52.500
the, he's always behind the crest of every wave, right? You know, he waits for others
00:24:57.820
He is the general melchit of leading. You know, he follows with his drinks cabinet while
00:25:03.540
Yeah, that's exactly it. Anyway, so, you know, Connor here thinks that Jenrick just killed
00:25:09.740
the Conservative Party. And honestly, I find it hard to disagree. The decline is terminal,
00:25:14.900
the post-election merger has been blocked, no cope can save them. Because, of course,
00:25:18.940
at this point, why would reform want to have a deal with the Conservatives when they can
00:25:27.180
And they can just poach the best one or two. But, I mean, on that, on killing the Conservative
0.88
00:25:31.980
Party, I mean, obviously this is a topic that we covered on Lotus Years a whole bunch of
00:25:36.280
times. Every single time we try to design a scenario by which the Tories make a comeback,
00:25:42.680
it's always, and then Jenrick takes over as step one, and then blum, blum, blum, blum,
00:25:48.620
blum. Well, step one. The foundation stone of all of those scenarios has just been knocked
00:25:53.940
Yeah, the theories always, you know, the wargaming...
00:25:59.300
Yeah, Jenrick takes over and basically embraces the right. Because that's what people want.
00:26:04.240
All of the polling shows that the public are basically very right-wing on almost every
00:26:08.660
issue apart from the economy. And even then, you can make a kind of paternalistic,
00:26:15.340
And Jenrick is a millennial, and he's online, and he's on the right, so he kind of intuitively
00:26:22.800
Do you not remember, like, a year ago or something, that he posted a picture of himself with Tom
00:26:28.420
He's hanging out with Tom Skinner. He spoke at the Now in England conference.
00:26:31.480
Like, Jenrick has been courting the online right as a source of ideas and messaging to
00:26:38.300
the general public. And it's been working. Like, Jenrick's had a bunch of viral videos.
00:26:41.720
And it's a rich vein to mine. The online right has a lot of talent, a lot of deep thought.
00:26:46.760
They know how to structure their arguments because they've been censored for 20-plus
00:26:50.260
years. They know exactly how to do this. And it's always been a frustration of the
00:26:54.740
online right. Farage basically just sees them as enemies, to be crushed.
00:27:02.680
Yes. And the thing is, the online right basically is a reflection of the genuine feeling of the
00:27:07.600
country. Like, the majority of people in the country are the online right. They're just
00:27:11.520
not online, right? They don't want immigration. They don't want, you know, massive welfare state.
0.89
00:27:18.360
Oh, I don't get to test this often. But, I mean, occasionally you'll be in a taxi.
00:27:23.880
If you ever just ask somebody about what's going on, don't lead them. They don't know
00:27:29.360
who you are. Just ask them what's going on. You'll immediately hear our talking points.
00:27:33.780
I get this all the time when I go to London. The guys don't know who I am, but they'll
00:27:37.980
just be like, oh, God, I hate Starmer. Or I'm not happy with this. And then they'll just
00:27:43.100
start coming out with, oh, there's too much immigration and stuff like this. It's all the
1.00
00:27:46.720
online right talking points, because we are just reflective of the same thing. So, anyway,
00:27:50.360
Jemric comes out swinging. And, again, like with Sweller, he seems kind of liberated, to
00:27:54.880
be honest. He can come out and just start hammering the Tories for the state of affairs.
00:27:59.620
And Jemric, I think, had a lot of sway on the Tory right. And so, I think this is behind
00:28:03.900
the recent spate of defections that Nigel is now taking in. This is Andrew Rosendale.
00:28:10.340
No one had ever heard of him. I kind of remember where he's from, actually.
00:28:26.240
He came out and was like, well, I'm not happy about the Chagos Islands, or something like
00:28:31.340
that. He's not like a based patriot, but he sees the way the wind is blowing. But then
00:28:38.960
more defections are coming. So, five sitting MPs are in formal discussions with Farage
00:28:44.280
about defecting, including Sweller-Bravenman, whose husband is a member of reform already.
00:28:59.940
So, one of the clever things that Farage did do was set that time limit.
00:29:09.680
I mean, that's quite a long way in the future, frankly. I would have put a more stringent
00:29:14.420
Well, it's a nice concrete one, the May elections. But, I mean, that really sort of sets it to,
00:29:19.880
you know, if you're going to do this, you have to... And that focuses minds. And the reason
00:29:23.900
it's clever is because then it will focus minds. It will get people to go over.
00:29:28.240
However, we've already had two, as we talked about here, potentially five more. And at
00:29:33.180
that point, it just becomes a cascade. And then he's captured the narrative, and then
00:29:39.580
That is exactly true, as the Conservative Party. Because a lot of people are pointing
00:29:44.340
out, well, hang on a second. You know, AI-generated images are actually useful for politics.
00:29:52.460
It's clear that Nigel Farage is just reassembling the T-1000.
00:29:56.820
And he's reassembling the T-1000 from the people who did the damage.
00:30:02.440
I've got some thoughts on party alignment, but I'll save that for a moment and then come
00:30:09.200
Yeah. And it's very difficult for Farage to deny that. Like we talked about in the last
00:30:13.180
one, the number of Tory MPs in reform outnumbers, or ex-Tory MPs, outnumbers the number of reform
00:30:23.800
MPs by a long way. Right. And yeah. As far as I can tell, only two of the...
00:30:37.940
Well, exactly. Right. And there were only two. We covered it in the last one. So, like,
00:30:41.980
it's very difficult for Nigel to deny this angle of attack. It's like, look, you're just
00:30:46.220
collecting a bunch of Tories, many of whom were part of the problem. It's like, yeah.
00:30:50.040
Yeah. And he noticed he's been lauding his inevitable Labour defection. Well, where is
00:30:54.340
it? I mean, maybe by the time we've recorded this...
00:30:57.060
Yeah. But entirely possible, someone from the Labour, right, like Lee Anderson-style
00:31:00.780
person, comes over. But again, okay, now you're assembling the Uni Party into a formal
00:31:07.120
party? Is that what we were actually asking for?
00:31:09.660
Yeah. I can see the argument that if they're going to have to work with Whitehall, then they
00:31:15.980
The thing is that nobody wants them to work with Whitehall. Everyone wants them to destroy
00:31:20.880
Correct. Everyone wanted an insurrection. And, I mean, don't get me wrong. I'm not saying
00:31:26.540
it doesn't even make sense from Farage's position. You know, he did a press conference.
00:31:32.860
In a way, I don't think he's temperamentally a managerialist. But he did a press conference
00:31:37.280
today in which he was explaining, no, these people do know how government works. And he used
00:31:42.840
the example of Five Star in Italy, saying Five Star in Italy were total aliens to politics.
00:31:48.800
To be fair, that is actually quite a good argument.
00:31:51.600
The argument being is that Five Star in Italy, they went down the route so we're just going
00:31:56.160
to cut ties with the establishment. They got in and they decided to work through it and
00:32:04.320
Correct. And that's exactly what Farage framed this as. And so in that, I think he probably
00:32:08.980
does have a point. However, it should have been a kind of one-in, sort of one-to-one
00:32:16.360
ratio. Because, okay, so, I mean, you're reformed. You're leading at 30-plus points in the polls.
00:32:23.580
Okay, you could take the old Tory, but why not take in two or three businessmen, doctors,
00:32:29.340
lawyers, people who are not actually a member, and make them a big headline name?
00:32:33.680
Yeah, I mean, you wouldn't be able to get them seats, but you could get them lined up.
00:32:36.680
Maybe they'll have seats in the next election, right? When you win, they're going to get
00:32:41.660
seats. And this is our shadow, provisional, you know...
00:32:45.660
So the Tories did a similar thing to what you're describing. I can't remember his name,
00:32:50.660
but he was the chairman of ASDA. So he understood business and the Tories got him in a good
00:32:54.840
emergency. What Farage will be doing, as you're saying, is they should be lining up. So this
00:32:58.920
guy, here's his CV. He's never been in politics, but he's going to be our spokesman for
00:33:05.000
whatever. This is what they do with Zia Yusuf.
0.74
00:33:07.180
Yeah, yes. Not an MP, but he's called to the party. And everyone's kind of accepted that now.
00:33:12.080
You know, get in some businessman, some doctor of something, some lawyer, whatever, and just
00:33:16.820
have them as part of the sort of family of faces of reform. So, you know, you'll get them
00:33:20.580
out. So Zia Yusuf has gone on question time, will it be this guy, this guy? And you can take
00:33:24.340
a couple of Tory MPs, but take a couple of others. Start building a big coalition. So when you've
00:33:29.160
got like half a dozen or, you know, 10 Tory MPs who have defected, it doesn't look like
00:33:34.340
you've just reconstituted the Tory party. So you've got all of these other people who
00:33:39.280
Yeah. So let's say those five Tory MPs come over. The way to do it is to have, you know,
00:33:43.520
a big table, 10 people on it. Five of which are five Tory MPs that just come over. And five,
00:33:49.700
these are these businessmen that we're announcing or whoever they are.
00:33:52.600
Whoever it is. Academics, you know, whoever, right? People with credentials. And instead,
00:33:57.500
he has left himself open, very vulnerable to this. This is just a reconstitution of the
00:34:03.620
And some, actually, some journalists should ask him, you know, you state very clearly that
00:34:09.960
the Tory party was responsible for the ruination of Britain with the Boris Wave and everything
00:34:14.160
else that came on up with it. At what point have you bought up so much of the Tory party
00:34:20.180
Great question. And they have been asking him that. And he's been, honestly, not given great
00:34:24.800
answers to them. The answers have always been a bit,
00:34:27.040
well, these guys, I mean, he literally said, I, I, these guys have shown contrition.
00:34:32.420
They've, they've come over because they're not happy with this. It's like, okay, but that's
00:34:37.620
Yeah. But ultimately we need these German scientists to work on our rocket program.
00:34:41.960
Yes. It does, it does kind of have that aspect of it.
00:34:45.940
And that's why I think it's not been landing with people. But anyway, let's, let's go to
00:34:48.860
some polls because the polls haven't been released. So these are the polls from 14th
00:34:56.120
So that is now six days ago. So last week's poll.
00:34:58.980
So that would have been two days before Genric.
00:35:02.280
Not great that Farage's star has been sinking somewhat, right?
00:35:07.620
In both the Servation poll and Find Out Now poll.
00:35:10.720
I mean, they're off. And like you say, they're not great.
00:35:15.940
Correct. They're still very comfortably first place. And so if you're seeing this,
00:35:19.120
you're like, okay, but why are we dropping four or five points in the polls?
00:35:25.320
I mean, maybe it was because the Guardian ran there. He's a racist at school thing for
00:35:30.900
No, no, no. That, that pumped him well up in the polls.
00:35:35.300
We covered it the other day. It's like, Guardian calls him a Nazi plus three in the polls.
00:35:41.340
Well, I think, I think it's a lack of solid messaging, right? Because Farage has been very
00:35:46.700
engaged in the kind of slug, slime throwing fight between the Tories and Labour and the
00:35:52.640
sort of, you know, Westminster triangle that is, whenever you see it in the House of Commons,
00:35:57.220
you've got Keir Starmer looking over at Farage on the benches, ignoring Kemi. And so Kemi
00:36:06.440
Kemi will stand up and ask a question, which is actually about reform.
00:36:10.160
Yeah. And Starmer will give an answer that's actually about reform.
00:36:14.380
Yeah. They're both, they're both just talking about Nigel the entire time. He doesn't even
00:36:20.220
He's like, reform doesn't even get called during PMQs.
00:36:22.900
Exactly. And, and Nigel has been making a big deal of it saying, I'll, I'll go and sit
00:36:25.740
in the spectator gallery if I have to, you know, because why am I there if you're just
00:36:29.360
going to talk about me rather than, you know, having a dialogue, right? And, and rightly
00:36:33.060
so. And it just makes them look afraid of him. But I think getting mired down in the
00:36:37.740
sludge of this kind of, you know, partisan shit flinging is actually not great for reform
0.98
00:36:43.900
because it makes them look like just part of the group, right? It's like, yeah, okay.
0.99
00:36:48.200
You, all politicians bicker about this sort of stuff all the time. And what Nigel's not
00:36:52.960
doing while he's doing that is coming out with high-minded proposals.
00:36:59.980
I'd like to hear a vision. What is, what is your vision?
00:37:02.900
Yeah, exactly. Because like, I was having a conversation with the tax driver today and
00:37:07.500
he was, he was a conservative. He, you know, he, he just came out with all this. He didn't
00:37:10.660
know who I was. He was, he said, oh yeah, I'm a conservative, but Nigel Farage, he just
00:37:14.840
hates immigrants. And it's just like, there's no policy is what he was saying. And he was
00:37:18.340
like, yeah, hating immigrants is probably enough to get them across the line, but it's not
00:37:21.080
enough for me to want to vote for him because what's he going to do? And, you know,
00:37:24.400
if Nigel were to come out and make a big play and say, right, look, all of the quangos are
1.00
00:37:30.700
going to be subservient ministers. The ministers, we're going to go through all 440 quangos and
0.98
00:37:37.660
assign them to a minister. And the minister will be given dictatorial power over the quango, right?
0.96
00:37:43.640
So he can hire and fire and set the agenda of the quango at will. And the constitution of the
1.00
00:37:48.360
quango is completely at the beck and call of the minister. And the minister is of course
0.98
00:37:52.800
accountable to the people. And that will put Britain at least some way back onto having
00:37:57.520
That is very Dominic Cummings kind of thinking. I mean, this is this whole thing. The state
00:38:03.800
used to be responsible to ministers. Now ministers are basically salesmen and it's the civil service
00:38:09.160
and the quangos who run everything. But I mean, quickly a point on your vision. It just occurred
00:38:12.860
to me that for a long time, politics in the entire Western world has not been about a positive
00:38:20.740
vision. It's been about the other guys are bad. Yes. And making you more afraid of the
00:38:26.320
other guys. Therefore, yeah. And then this Trump guy came along and he was like, OK, here's a
00:38:31.920
positive vision. This is why we're going to be great. Yes. And it worked. People resonated
00:38:37.860
to that. Politicians just don't do it because they don't have a positive vision. Build a wall
00:38:42.500
and make Mexico pay for it. Where's Farage's catch line? Yes. That's I should be able to
00:38:46.880
give you Farage's catch line. Right. But he doesn't have one. I think this is really starting
00:38:51.720
to hamstring. Whereas he gets wades more and more into the muck of Westminster politics.
00:38:57.760
The message is not cutting through. And so people are kind of rolling on a legacy message
00:39:03.060
of why he's against immigration. I think that's going to, you know, that's something
00:39:06.760
about Farage. But it's like, no, no, he should be coming up with, you know, concrete structural
00:39:10.940
reforms. Because, like, people aren't going to know the structure of the clangocracy or
00:39:14.800
anything like that. But he can clearly articulate, like I've just done, and just say, right, so
00:39:19.580
bottom line, what I'm going to do is make the state responsible to you. Respond to what you
00:39:26.120
want. No longer can the people in these clangos just go about their day ignoring the ministers.
00:39:32.900
It's something like, I am going to tame the faceless state. Something like that.
00:39:37.520
Yes. A bit more punchy, but that's the gist of it.
00:39:39.840
Exactly. And people will take away, right, okay, so we're going to get control over the
00:39:42.940
government again. Thank God. Because if there's one thing that I think people feel at the moment
00:39:47.280
is that the state has gotten away from them. Yeah.
00:39:49.200
But they don't have any control of it. It doesn't matter who they vote for. Because either
00:39:52.200
way, I'm just getting the same faceless clangocracy. So I think the lack of, and this is just
00:39:58.020
one thing, you know, he could have like just these high-minded states, comes out, you know,
00:40:03.060
gives a press conference and says, this is going to be our policy. We're going to get
00:40:06.480
our lawyers and whoever to write this policy and this law, and we're going to pass this
00:40:14.220
Well, I mean, today he could come out with a vision element, which is, this is what we
00:40:17.420
want to achieve, and it's whatever it is, remigration and, you know, making elections
0.91
00:40:22.840
But yeah, taming, taming the state. And then he can just, and then journalists will stand
00:40:27.460
up and say, how are you going to do that? And he said, well, over the next two years
00:40:30.200
leading up to the election, we're going to roll out a series of politics. But then people
00:40:32.960
know, okay, this is the direction we're going in. Details are going to follow. And as long
00:40:37.600
as he comes with those details, fine, jobs are good and he wins the election.
00:40:40.720
I mean, literally name like the doctors and lawyers who are going to work together as a
00:40:44.460
My team is working on this and look at them. Aren't they credible?
00:40:48.020
Exactly right. So, and I think it's this lack of vision, like you say, being projected,
00:40:52.620
that is causing him to slide in the polls. And then, then we get the sense. The only
00:40:58.700
Yeah. And that's, that's basically what Jemrick was saying as well. And then we have
00:41:03.460
this YouGov poll, which YouGov, as we covered the other day, are actually in the sort of
00:41:08.160
top four, top five of pollsters when it comes to accuracy. And that's not good. That's on
00:41:13.640
the 18th and 19th of January. So that's after the Zahawi defection.
0.63
00:41:17.900
Right. And Zahawi is a major shareholder in YouGov. So that's the best they could do on
00:41:22.840
Yes. And, and that's, that's after the Jemrick defection as well. So it was only yesterday.
00:41:26.980
Right. So this covers the Jemrick defection. Now it might be that the public just haven't
00:41:31.340
had time for it to sink in or whatever, but the point is there is no Jemrick bump. There
00:41:35.440
is a Jemrick loss to the conservatives, but this is not an improvement for reform.
00:41:41.980
Yeah. To be, to be fair, we know who Jemrick is. Our audience knows who Jemrick is.
00:41:50.580
No, no. That's, that's literally it. It's name recognition, Jemrick who. And so when you,
00:41:55.980
I mean that, like you were saying, that's the thing essentially split into fifths, right?
00:42:04.100
Well, that is such an unstable configuration in a first past the post system.
00:42:08.980
It just, it just doesn't, two parts, a first past the post system should have two parties
00:42:16.840
of government and a spare. Yeah. And for years we had that. Yeah. But this, this is just,
00:42:23.620
no, this is going to tip upside down very soon.
00:42:26.000
It is crazy. Yeah. How reform are only 5% ahead of the most hated party and prime minister
00:42:31.580
ever, right? How the conservatives are below the most hated party and prime minister ever
00:42:37.620
as the opposition party and how the greens as a radical insane party that promises nonsense
00:42:44.020
are snapping at all their heels. So this, this is mad. And when you map this into the number
0.96
00:42:50.280
of seats, right, look at those numbers. That is mad. Yeah. That's a bit unstable. I mean,
00:42:56.580
even if you did an alliance between the conservatives and reform, that's not a majority. It's not
00:43:02.160
even. It's 321. It doesn't, you need 326 for a majority. I mean, some, some Northern Ireland
00:43:07.080
MPs won't turn up. So you might just, but it would be. But from those numbers there, right,
00:43:12.100
that is not even a hung parliament, right? Because, okay. That's just a mess. Exactly.
00:43:18.320
Right. Conservative and reform are 321. No majority there, right? Who is going to side with Nigel
00:43:23.440
Farage out of the Remainers? This is a parliament that gets a caretaker leader, collapses in six
00:43:29.800
months and does it again. Yeah. He, he would probably be having to appeal to a very, you
00:43:35.420
know, like a few, um, as you say, Northern Ireland ones, or maybe even like the Muslim
0.54
00:43:40.400
independence or something. Like, you know, it's genuinely. Yeah. We, we, when we re-migrate
00:43:45.020
you, you get a first class ticket. I mean, I don't, I don't know what, what the deal would
00:43:48.000
look like, but yeah. So, but the point is the conservatives reform can't form a government
00:43:51.180
out of that. And if you add up all the rest, neither can they. The rest is 310. So even if
00:43:57.380
Labour, Lib Democrats, Green, SNP, Plaid Cymru, and whatever the seven on the million.
00:44:02.240
Well, you have to include the Tories. Well, yeah, exactly. They, that doesn't form a government.
00:44:07.380
So this is, as you say, just a mess. And it's like, Nigel, you should be on 40% at this
00:44:13.980
point. This has to break apart and reorganise. And I've been thinking about how it, how it
00:44:19.200
does that. Let's look at each of those and think, okay, I know this is a little simplistic.
00:44:23.380
You can't take it down to the individual MP, but I'm going to simplify it for the point
00:44:26.800
of, because it's basically right. Each of those is a two group coalition. So the Labour
00:44:32.740
Party are Blairite managerialists and old fashioned socialists. The Conservative Party is...
00:44:37.820
Well, actually, there's the immigrant bloc as well in that.
00:44:45.100
And the Conservative Party are Blairite managerialists and old fashioned Tories, which is small state,
00:44:50.280
all that kind of stuff. Reform is actually one of those, it's dissuaded between,
00:44:56.620
between the FNATs and the SIVNATs. So the FNATs are the vast majority of the supporters.
00:45:02.760
The SIVNATs are the vast majority of the operatives.
00:45:06.620
LibDems, again, is dissuaded. It is mostly Blairite managerialists.
00:45:12.360
With a small rump of Liberals, but I mean, the older ones, I mean, they're basically died
00:45:17.960
out. I mean, that was pre-Nick Clegg. I mean, they're kind of gone.
00:45:21.060
There are a few sort of middle class leftists in it, but not many.
00:45:23.520
Yeah. There's the Green Party, which is eco-mentalists, woolly-haired people with big gardens,
00:45:29.720
and oh, wouldn't it be nice to save the rivers, and I'm voting Green because I've got a big
00:45:34.060
Well, the Greens are now the Islamo-Communist Alliance, remember?
00:45:36.560
And the Islamo-Communist Alliance, which is basically the, probably if you haven't mapped
00:45:41.520
them anything else, closest to the old-fashioned socialists, but even more insane.
00:45:45.240
Yeah. I mean, the Greens have already lost a bunch of, loads of councillors to the Labour
00:45:53.440
Yes. So when you split those first five parties down the middle in those groupings, well,
00:45:57.360
suddenly a new system emerges. The old-fashioned small market conservatives go to the Sivnats
00:46:03.800
because they basically map together. I mean, they're basically the same thing.
00:46:07.920
The conservative, which is majority Blairite socialists and the Labour Party, well, that
00:46:12.540
faction can go together. The Lib Dems can go with them. So we are almost certainly going
00:46:17.240
to see a merger between at least two of, if not all three, the Blairite wing of Labour,
00:46:23.940
the Blairite wing of Conservatives, and the bulk of the Liberal Democrats.
00:46:28.000
Yes. Yeah. So this is great. So as you can see, just under the main number, you can see
00:46:32.580
the minuses and the pluses, right? So who's going where? And so what you can see is this
00:46:36.620
is, as we've been saying for a long time now, the cannibalise, people cannibalising the
00:46:41.000
centre. Because the centre is just full-on collapse, right? And I think you're absolutely
00:46:44.600
right with which coalitions or which constituencies are in each party, right? So the Labour, the
00:46:51.520
Greens are going to gain a huge, they're going to gain the Islam and Communists. So the Jeremy
1.00
00:46:56.480
Corbyn Muslims, Jeremy Corbyn types and Muslims are going to go to the Greens. But you are
1.00
00:47:00.780
right, there's still actually a majority, and this is how Keir Starmer got elected in the
00:47:04.540
Labour Party, who are the Blairite managerial student types, right? You're right, they're going
00:47:10.000
to go to the Liberal Democrats, because that's their natural home.
00:47:13.620
Or the Liberal Democrats go to the Conservatives, because they're all also Blairite managerialists,
00:47:20.540
Well, I think that what's... See, the Liberal Democrats have got no incentive to actually
00:47:24.460
give up their own party, right? They've got no incentive to merge. They...
00:47:27.600
Well, the thing is, they're the third party, they can't survive as the fifth party. So I
00:47:32.800
Hang on, let me lay it out, right? So I think that what's happening with Labour and the Conservatives,
00:47:36.500
I think that Nigel and I are right, he thinks Conservatives are done, I think the Labour are
00:47:41.480
done. And I think that eventually, in a couple of years' time, like, the internals of the
00:47:47.000
party will be in such shambles, and both parties will be in such shambles, that the activists
00:47:51.620
and they're all like, right, okay, we're done in politics if we carry on like this. We need
00:47:55.720
an escape plan, right? And the Conservatives at the moment, as we've covered today, they
00:48:00.460
know that, oh, it's reform, right? We're going over to reform, yeah, no, screw it, this is done.
00:48:03.840
So the right of the Conservatives are going to go to reform. Now, the right, right, will
00:48:08.700
be a bunch of old Tories, but it also means sort of, you know, civ-nat types.
00:48:12.960
But people who don't hate Britain, right, people who don't hate Britain, they might not be
00:48:16.860
hardline Steve Laws fans, but they're comfortable with Nigel, you know, they were always comfortable.
00:48:22.620
The Brexit-y sort of side of it, right, of the Conservatives. Let's say that's half the
00:48:26.720
Conservatives. So let's say reform get another 30, 32 seats, something like that. That sounds
00:48:32.780
plausible to me. So reform, I think, would gain that. Now, there are going to be a bunch
00:48:38.140
of Labour supporters who have already gone to reform who are the sort of old left, old
00:48:43.560
English left, right? So they are very socially conservative. They're also economically left
00:48:49.640
wing, right? They want redistribution, but they don't like foreigners, they don't like
1.00
00:48:56.020
I mean, that was the entire left wing movement before 1980.
00:48:59.060
Yeah. That's the left wing movement that, frankly, Jeremy Corbyn should have been leading.
00:49:03.540
He should have been, but he went woke, right? But there's going to be a serious percentage
00:49:08.100
of those, probably like 25% or something, because you've already seen it in the jury trial
00:49:13.660
thing. There are a few, there's rumblings of a backbench revolt against David Lammy over
00:49:19.140
this, because they're like, well, hang on a second, you know, we can tolerate David Lammy
0.92
00:49:23.360
in this crappy Blairite party. But we're not getting rid of jury trials, we're Englishmen.
00:49:31.340
Exactly. And so I reckon there's probably about 25 more who will go across from Labour
00:49:36.000
to reform, right? So reform end up about 310, 320, something like that, as a natural constituency
00:49:42.100
that forms in this new blob. Then the rest of them, as you said, I think, like, the Labour
00:49:49.140
party, Keir Starmer has actually done a good job of excising the leftist and Islamists,
1.00
00:49:54.420
right? So Jeremy Corbyn, Zahra Sultana, those sort of people. You've got the Diane Abbots,
00:49:58.900
but she's a bit old these days, so she's probably going to be retiring.
00:50:00.780
Yeah, she's relatively toothless at this point.
1.00
00:50:02.860
Yeah. But there is still a rump of quite left-leaning people, like the Jess Phillips
00:50:07.540
types, you know, who are not natural Blairites, who probably will go to the Greens, because
00:50:13.640
the Greens will be speaking their language the most. So let's say about 25% of that goes
00:50:18.660
over to the Greens. So that puts the Greens roughly in the position that the Lib Dems
00:50:22.720
are in now, right? And then the rest of them, being the managerial Blairites, probably around,
00:50:29.460
I don't know, 50 MPs, something like that, go over to the Lib Dems, making them the second
00:50:33.080
party. And so then you've got what I think is going to be the new settlement with reform,
00:50:38.140
Lib Dems, and then the Greens in the Lib Dem position, in the roughly those numbers.
00:50:42.800
So my analysis is very similar. I've just not put party labels onto it, but I'm fairly
00:50:48.940
sure that what it's going to be is Sivnats are the majority, and they've got a fringe who
00:50:55.160
is Fnats, who are blue-balled and kept on the side. Majority of support, but they're their
00:50:59.860
fringe. You get the managerialists, and that is the second block, and that is a perfectly
00:51:05.920
viable, competing for elections, strong opposition.
00:51:09.400
The managerialists can draw people in from Lib Dems, Tories, and Labour. And the third
00:51:18.120
party in this system, the place that Lib Dems used to occupy as a third party, that will
00:51:22.860
probably go to old-fashioned, nutty socialists, and that will probably cluster around Greens.
00:51:28.640
Nutty socialists and immigrants. Because the immigrant voting bloc is substantial in these
1.00
00:51:33.540
So now you've got back to a two-and-a-half-party system, and then your fringes are Fnats, old-fashioned
00:51:39.140
liberals, which are unreconcilable with things, pro-EU old-fashioned liberals, and the Islamo
00:51:50.280
Yeah, so you've now got back to a two-and-a-half-party system, which is what a first-past-the-post-electoral
00:51:55.960
system demands that you have. So it's going to get back there. Which of those parties is
00:52:01.860
the cover label for the managerial party. I'm not entirely sure. Maybe it's Lib Dems,
00:52:07.100
maybe it's some other coalition. But I'm pretty sure that is what it will look like.
00:52:11.060
Yeah. I mean, the dramatic thing here is how little the Lib Dems are gaining, frankly.
00:52:15.840
So whereas I'm saying, oh, the Blairites will go to the Lib Dems, I mean, maybe they won't.
00:52:20.400
You know, because the Lib Dems are only gaining...
00:52:22.180
I think a deal is inevitable, and I think the Conservative one is more likely, and a Labour
00:52:29.260
one is also pretty likely, and a three-way merger is not off the table.
00:52:33.300
It's not off the table, but I think the Lib Dems are quite prideful. I actually don't
00:52:37.160
think they'll want to do that. I don't think they'll want to merge it. I think they'll take
00:52:40.520
in defectors, but I don't think they'll want to merge. But the fact that they're only
00:52:45.320
getting nine MPs after such collapse is really interesting, as it shows the sort of natural...
00:52:49.420
So what's the bottom number? Is that how many... So this is what they're predicted to get
00:52:53.580
next time, and how many... Yeah, how many they gain?
00:52:55.520
How many they gain if these numbers are correct. That's not much.
00:53:00.140
So Labour's still scheduled to get 113. I mean, that's...
00:53:03.900
But that's only because, you know, these numbers are crazy, right?
00:53:07.720
You know, the state workers are voting for Labour in the same way that they voted for...
00:53:12.080
Yeah, that's the state party at this point. Yeah.
00:53:14.100
So maybe they own the managerial block, I'm not sure, but, you know...
00:53:17.260
Maybe, but I think a lot of them will go into the Liberal Democrats. I suspect the Liberal
00:53:20.400
Democrats will kind of up their game a bit on that. But the Labour Party will continue
00:53:24.800
on as a rump for... Like, at the moment, the Conservative Party is a rump of, like, 120 MPs.
00:53:31.600
According to this, it's going to be the fourth party.
00:53:35.040
There's just simply no point with them at that point.
00:53:39.200
They'll just keep collapsing. Because Kelly Begnaut doesn't seem to have any desire to
00:53:44.700
give up her power over this... The Queen of the Ashes. But anyway, the point being, everyone
00:53:49.980
hates everyone, right? So, Ed Davey and Zach Polanski are two of the least recognised politicians
00:53:56.740
in the country. More than half the people when polled don't know who they are. And of those
00:54:02.160
that do, they have a negative view, right? So, minus 8%, minus...
00:54:05.440
Is this just the people who actually know who all five are?
00:54:07.880
Correct. Okay, well, this is a niche subset of the British population to start with.
00:54:13.320
It is. It's, I think, about 40%, 45% who know who Polanski and Davey are.
00:54:17.820
How can you know who Zach Polanski is and not hate him? Why is he only on minus 8?
00:54:22.220
Because about a quarter of the country are rabid leftists. Even if they don't vote for
00:54:27.780
the party, they still have a reasonable opinion because they're rabid leftists.
00:54:31.940
Begnaut's on minus 10%. Again, she has got the problem that most people don't know who she is.
00:54:35.280
I don't know how you can know who Ed Davey is and have any opinion on them because he's
00:54:47.700
And the fact that he's only on minus 15 on average is really good.
00:54:54.260
Well, you only need, if you get a third of the people to vote for, you are going to
00:55:01.760
And then just Starmer, just the most unpopular man since he's.
00:55:06.020
I mean, that, even 50%, even first past the post is not going to help you there.
00:55:13.480
Like, that is two to one ratio of people who hate you that don't hate you.
00:55:27.180
I won't bother playing this, just for time's sake.
00:55:32.880
I watched this clip after you mentioned it before.
00:55:39.440
Any random part of the interview, you're, yeah, there you go.
00:55:48.820
That is somebody sat outside the headmaster's office because they were caught doing something
00:55:56.380
Honestly, she looks, you know, this is very fragile at this point, right?
00:56:05.260
So, yeah, total incompetent ethnic girl boss victory.
1.00
00:56:07.560
Because that's what the Conservative Party seems to actually consist in now.
00:56:11.860
I mean, Priti tells the shadow home secretary or something at the moment.
00:56:22.080
Because after the five MPs were like, yeah, we're in talks to defect.
00:56:26.660
She's like, right, okay, I've got to now summon them all in and make sure they don't defect.
00:56:35.160
The long housing will continue until the defections have ceased.
00:56:40.200
And is, you know, do you want to be in that room?
00:56:43.880
Do you imagine the atmosphere in the Badenock bunker?
00:56:47.220
I have done everything in my power to, after I left school, make sure I was never in a room
00:56:53.280
You're getting a long housing from the HR Yoruba Mammies.
1.00
00:56:56.920
And it's just like, oh God, you know, I mean, I'm sure Tim Stanley's thrilled.
00:57:03.200
But there are going to be a bunch of them who are...
00:57:05.560
He's just got his ear pressed up against the door, pleasuring himself.
00:57:09.340
There are going to be a bunch of them that are like that, but there are also going to
00:57:12.840
And who are just like, yeah, okay, this is screwed.
0.79
00:57:16.060
And the thing is, the messaging is terrible from Badenock.
0.99
00:57:19.260
She's like, oh, I'm cleaning out the rubbish from the Conservative Party.
0.99
00:57:27.960
If he qualifies as rubbish, then good luck to you.
0.96
00:57:30.900
You know, Jemryk obviously not happy with being long housed.
00:57:33.460
And then you've got, like, her contradicting the messaging of Farage and Jemryk.
00:57:41.100
Farage and Jemryk are obviously correct that Britain is broken.
00:57:49.820
And then the second one is, we will fix broken Britain.
00:57:55.960
So, Farage and Jemryk are saying, look, Britain is broken, and it needs reform.
00:58:01.780
And Badenock appears to be in denial about reality, totally out of touch, and delusional.
00:58:15.160
No, go and have five random conversations with five random Britons anywhere outside of
00:58:22.020
the SW1 postcode, and ask them, is Britain broken or not?
00:58:27.320
Yes, and it feels very much like Hitler in the bunker, like we were talking about the
00:58:33.300
Starmer the other week, Hitler in the bunker moving around phantom divisions that just don't
00:58:37.460
It's like, okay, you seem deranged and delusional and completely out of touch, and desperate
00:58:42.540
to cling onto power, and it's slipping through your fingers like sand, as more of your MP start
00:58:49.040
defecting, and you're like, right, okay, I'm going to put down my foot and say, okay, I just
00:58:54.060
I think you've got to admit, you've screwed this up, you've destroyed the Conservative Party,
00:58:58.100
thank you so much, and the time is passing and the new paradigm is being born.
00:59:03.740
Yeah, I mean, to be fair, Boris and Rishi teed it up perfectly.
00:59:08.860
They set up the shot, and to be fair, she doesn't...
0.99
00:59:12.380
Yeah, she doesn't need a lot of skill to land the destruction of the Tory party at this
1.00
00:59:16.320
No, but like you were saying, it's very clear that things are moving, that the sort of six-party
00:59:25.580
Things will start settling into a new paradigm that just won't include Labour and the Tories.
00:59:30.720
Because it's perfectly obvious that what I'm saying is, it's obviously a first-past-the-post
00:59:35.520
system, you are not going to have six co-equal parties.
00:59:39.240
Well, I can only hope that they're all aware of this, and they are feverishly working on
00:59:45.320
what the new settlement looks like, because whoever moves first is going to have the advantage.
00:59:48.920
I think they're in denial, and I think that's why Nigel Farage is accepting all the Tories.
00:59:55.680
Well, because his coalition is just falling into place by virtue of him being first.
0.98
00:59:59.440
He's the black hole that is sucking in the old Tories.
0.98
01:00:09.480
But whatever that second and third block is, they need to figure it out, and they need
01:00:15.520
And going back to the Badenock bunker, this is apparently from...
01:00:24.080
I'm going to read it on this screen just because it's easier, right?
01:00:26.620
Apparently, she left a diary or a private notebook at a hotel.
01:00:32.240
And it was filled with handwriting that seems to match her own, contained a scribbled mind
01:00:37.160
map that outlines the points she made at the Shadow Cabinet meeting, from the words
01:00:43.760
The words mirrored her criticism of Cynac's gaffe, which was a little late at the time.
01:00:46.800
The notebook also contains affirmations about public speaking, linked to the heading Personal
01:01:00.120
Remember, you're the standard bearer of the right.
01:01:02.580
Don't let people think you are easily wound up.
01:01:09.140
Dear diary, remember you are a strong and special girl who can do big girl things.
01:01:17.880
I mean, what this seems to imply is that Kimmy Badenock has imposter syndrome.
0.96
01:01:27.080
I don't, because I feel like I've earned where I am.
01:01:38.380
And it's like, okay, but then you don't feel that you earned where you are.
01:01:41.180
I've had to struggle for everything that I have.
01:01:57.060
Whereas there's been a huge amount of friction for us to get to wherever we are, right?
01:02:02.540
Anyway, so she looks like she's on the edge, right?
0.69
01:02:08.180
I'm starting to feel bad about attacking her now, I've read this.
01:02:14.220
It's just, Kimmy, it's time for you to go, right?
01:02:16.600
And now, I'm happy for you to oversee the death of the Conservative Party, the death of
01:02:26.000
Because at the end of the day, like, one thing that you'll notice about a bunch of the Tories
01:02:32.440
that Farage has taken in is they're not the weird, old, aristocratic types, right?
01:02:39.000
Jemrit comes from a modest, middle-class household, but he didn't have a mammy, you
0.83
01:02:45.820
Nadeem Zahawi is a foreigner, he came from Iraq, you know, worked his way up.
01:02:53.000
You can see him with a packet of chips and a cheap pint.
01:02:57.120
Tice is probably the closest to have likely to have had a mammy, but even then, he doesn't
01:03:01.440
You know, he's with Isabella Oakeshott, okay, that's fine, that's not weird, you know, he's
01:03:05.660
You could invite him to a party without him embarrassing you.
01:03:08.720
And so, like, Farage might be taking the Tories, but he's not taking the weird Tories who have
01:03:13.720
a weird relationship with women and their mothers.
01:03:16.200
And so it's like, okay, that's actually good, right?
01:03:23.840
They're working for the Times or the Telegraph.
01:03:26.300
But no, no, they're also behind the scenes in the party.
01:03:29.920
And so, like, Farage not taking those people is actually allowed, because they're the people
01:03:46.120
And Farage is actually taking those men who were like, no, I'd like a straight white man
01:03:54.960
And, okay, you know, I mean, I don't like Farage taking all these Tories in such concentrated
01:04:01.940
You should be diluting them with lots of other people.
01:04:12.780
And this is the thing, the Conservatives, there's such myopic vision at the moment.
01:04:19.000
It's like, why is Rupert Lowe polling at 10% and not leading the Conservative Party, right?
01:04:24.440
Well, that goes back to my split that I talked about earlier.
01:04:27.420
Reform is a coalition between SIVNATs and FNATs.
01:04:42.520
But why not, as the Conservatives, let him lead your party?
01:04:51.060
He's going to say, right, I'm going to put you in charge of that.
01:04:54.260
He's not going to be constantly watching over you and nitpicking you.
01:04:58.280
So I think prior to David Cameron, he would have nailed that position.
01:05:03.200
I think in the modern Conservative Party, the faction that is not Blairite managerialists,
01:05:10.600
is probably about seven or eight people at this point.
01:05:15.020
But the point being, the Conservatives have left all this talent on the table.
01:05:22.840
How can you, you know, you are famous for cooing your prime ministers.
01:05:27.620
You should have six months ago gone, right, Bainock isn't the girl.
1.00
01:05:30.980
And she's, you know, we're getting longhoused.
0.99
01:05:36.940
And, okay, Jemryk's pretty good, but Lowe's way better.
01:05:40.140
Jemryk would have been a good second in command to Lowe,
01:05:48.660
I don't think that Rupert Lowe fits into the Conservatives.
01:05:53.700
It'd be like trying to insert Thanos into Fraggle Rock
01:06:13.660
the Conservative wagon that's approaching the looming cliff edge,
01:06:17.440
we're like, right, okay, we're going to have to do something.
01:06:19.620
We could veer to the right and have a flank for us.
01:06:22.340
There is a guy literally sitting on the table, ready to be taken.
01:06:29.880
Now, I think that Thomas Skinner has joined Reform
01:06:33.480
You remember Jemric posting the picture with Thomas Skinner?
01:06:37.680
And why wouldn't Fraggle just start sucking up the talent,
01:06:46.100
Well, people who, unlike him, actually understand the online right.
01:06:53.600
If he just sits there coming out, he needs to be the high-level guy,
01:07:14.100
But this is what the Conservatives have left on the table,
01:07:17.460
and now it's just like, okay, well, if your party is in collapse,
01:07:25.700
You've got nothing, and you did this to yourselves.
01:07:31.320
I mean, any good political strategist coming at this from first principle
01:07:34.940
should be looking at it and saying there is 30% up for grabs there,
01:07:40.400
If I can come along and I'm clever, I can carve out 30%,
01:07:44.680
and that makes me a party of government straight away.
01:07:51.640
And so the Conservatives have just completely left all the pieces
01:07:56.240
and Nigel is just slowly but surely picking them up one at a time.
01:07:59.600
And the Conservative scope, the compass of the Conservatives,
01:08:04.680
until they're just a little long-housed Maidenock bunker
01:08:09.600
where nothing can happen except finally for the sort of Soviet tanks
01:08:18.420
She's in a bunker calling her longhouse meetings.
01:08:23.020
And none of them have got the balls to stand up to.
0.95
01:08:24.960
But anyway, so that's the current state of play of UK politics.
0.94
01:08:30.820
And like we were saying earlier, it's everything to play for.
01:08:33.600
I was worried when we started this series we might run out of material,
01:08:45.640
Like you were saying earlier, it's genuinely everything to play for.
01:08:49.300
Nobody's actually playing their hand very well,
01:08:56.180
This is just waiting for somebody with a strategic brain
01:09:02.980
Unfortunately, we don't seem to have any strategic brains
01:09:06.760
because they're too focused on responding to journalists
01:09:09.220
and remembering to breathe in and out and pivot to Labour
01:09:12.540
when somebody questions if they're a big girl or not.
01:09:15.540
Remember, you're the standard bearer of the right.