The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - The Demographic Clock Is Ticking

00:00:00.160 Hi folks, welcome to another one of our political chats, and this week we're going to be talking

00:00:04.060 about the demographic clock that is ticking, and how you can already see the problems occurring.

00:00:09.740 Not the demographics that you might think either, it's not even necessarily, although

00:00:14.500 partially, about native versus non-native.

00:00:18.920 It's actually about the ageing out of the boomers that we're going to get to.

00:00:22.760 It's how we used to talk about demographics before 1997. 0.99

00:00:25.760 Correct.

00:00:26.000 But before we begin, of course, come to our live event that is on Saturday, the 11th of April, this Saturday.

00:00:33.060 So you've only got a few more days. We're going to have fun, we're going to have beer, we're going to have a few protesters, apparently, according to the police.

00:00:38.600 But they've assured us that everything will go smoothly. So link in the description, we will see you there.

00:00:43.960 Right, let's get in some polling. So here's a poll from Good Growth Foundation.

00:00:49.480 i'm not actually familiar with good growth foundation but uh 27 percent not great labor

00:00:54.660 20 percent conservatives 19 percent greens on 15 and lib dems 12 modeled out that looks like reform

00:01:01.020 not getting a government would have to lean on the conservatives to get that's a curious i'm not

00:01:05.840 sure greens will be that low but yeah well i mean this is the problem when you've got five different

00:01:10.560 parties we've not actually much in it between them you get slight imbalances and and more to

00:01:17.340 the point how exactly do those votes shake out across the constituencies you you can produce

00:01:21.780 with slightly different assumptions wildly different numbers yeah is it well yeah absolutely

00:01:27.000 i mean i'm glad i don't have to do predictions yes right now one thing about political commentary

00:01:32.900 is that politicians are ten a penny and worth less than that they very rarely age well and you

00:01:40.820 learn very quickly not to try and live and die on your predictions and so i just try not to make

00:01:45.160 predictions frankly because they're just they just you end up with egg on your face and everyone

00:01:50.080 ends up with egg on their face so it's just not worth it i mean look at rory stewart who's

00:01:55.260 currently burning his own credibility by saying no no no kamala's going to win no no this is

00:01:59.860 going to happen brexit's going to fail it's like what have you predicted that's been correct looking

00:02:04.420 at rory stewart is he's always going to be a losing game because agreed he looks like a you

00:02:09.260 know an old woman with aids or something i don't know what a bit harsh but yeah uh anyway so then

00:02:14.020 we've got another one from find out now reform on 26 greens on 20 uh conservative and labor

00:02:18.900 third and fourth place no one cares and then other at seven percent which is interesting

00:02:23.180 and then i thought okay well they're they're reasonably strong polls from reform yep so let's

00:02:29.080 go to the average of the polls the polar polls on uh politico now we've been watching this

00:02:34.000 slowly declining over the past six months from i think they're high of about 31 to now

00:02:40.640 all the way down to 25 ouch that's really bad i think it was 24 when i looked earlier actually

00:02:49.320 so uh that's actually gone up slightly but that's that's not good i mean they did have it if you're

00:02:55.880 polling in the low 30s that's a win in in this setup yes i mean actually even in a normal election

00:03:04.120 31 isn't bad i mean it's not bad but you could expect the conservatives and labor to have

00:03:09.360 something like 42 to 31 yeah respectively right but in this setup with five different parties 31

00:03:15.920 is is a commanding win so they had it and and their continual tact on questionable policies

00:03:23.720 their continual alienation of the youth vote it's a self-inflicted wound strange commitment to

00:03:31.480 the boomers frankly yeah uh as their only constituency for some reason uh and so i mean

00:03:38.140 we called this well about a month ago that this we were like look guys farage and reformer on the

00:03:44.280 downswing and because of the rails that they've set themselves on there doesn't seem to be any

00:03:49.020 way they can get off of it they've they've chosen their course they've chartered their course and

00:03:54.120 they've decided to fix the anchor or whatever it is and head in a particular direction by piling

00:03:58.900 the party full of ex-tories and then committing to the bank of england no bi independence so

00:04:05.540 no structural changes and then the recent commitment to the triple lock for example which

00:04:10.860 everyone's like okay but that's terrible actually you need to do a broken on this to i i i absolutely

00:04:16.480 do i've got um i mean i did an interview recently that goes out next tuesday and then i've got an

00:04:21.180 absolute banger interview coming very soon people are going to love that one like a full episode on

00:04:25.420 the triple lock yeah on the triple lock is is absolutely worth because people just don't

00:04:29.840 you often hear people say things like okay well um you know the the uk pension is actually

00:04:34.740 relatively low against um against say continental europe actually the share of national spending

00:04:41.660 that goes on pensions is pretty much exactly the same but people people don't quite realize how

00:04:45.700 powerful the triple lock is that you could have a situation where and it's and it's and you don't

00:04:51.240 even need to stretch the numbers where in 15 years time the pension is going to be double the average

00:04:56.180 wage yeah you need to i do i absolutely need to do a broken mix on this yeah you do need to do a

00:05:04.160 proper deep dive on it anyway like i said it's nice to see everyone catching up to where we were

00:05:09.640 here was politics joe but i saw um the the sunday times podcast and all that all with the same sort

00:05:17.500 of thing again this only from two days ago with only 50 000 views uh reforms collapse is inevitable

00:05:22.140 yeah we said that a month ago i mean i mean it's good that if if for any reason you miss one of our

00:05:26.960 podcasts you can watch everybody else's podcast a month later yeah but uh but yeah like i said

00:05:32.520 The Times said this, I think the New Statesman said something like this as well, basically

00:05:36.540 everyone is catching up to where we are, because we're paying close attention, but not only

00:05:40.500 that, it's like, how did we know that everyone would be on this point? It's because we were following

00:05:44.340 not just the polls, but what the party itself

00:05:48.500 was actually doing, and how that relates to what the electorate are actually

00:05:52.320 feeling, right? And really, this turn started when

00:05:56.540 they brought in Nahim Zwahari,

00:05:59.520 um and and then of course of course out of that they brought in a whole bunch more tories

00:06:03.720 and and all of the establishment podcasts were saying oh this this is a tremendous win for them

00:06:10.380 because very experienced yeah because they got experience in and this is an enormous win for

00:06:14.300 them and we were like yeah but that goes against their entire the entire point of the party it's

00:06:19.220 it's it's an insurgent party which is taking the regime in yeah completely the opposite

00:06:25.240 the antithesis of the purpose of the party itself which farage seems to have dramatically misread

00:06:31.560 which is weird yeah uh so anyway like i said um this we we saw this coming because it's not that

00:06:39.240 the numbers were immediate on the face of it although they weren't good so we we called this

00:06:43.980 about was a month and a half ago when he was on 28 we were like right okay this is it going down

00:06:48.960 what we were watching was the direction of travel right as in are you going up or are you going down

00:06:54.920 and the answer is they're going down and we we saw this uh and glad everyone else is getting it

00:07:00.540 but this came out from lord ashcroft polls and it really made a splash now you can imagine

00:07:05.640 just for anyone listening the greens on 21.4 percent in first place in first place reform

00:07:13.540 on 20.9 percent in second place the conservatives on 20.5 percent in third place labor and lib

00:07:20.240 dems on fourth and fifth in irrelevant numbers frankly and i mean this this was a very well

00:07:30.240 uh publicized poll now just to be clear as we've covered before lord iscroft polling is considered

00:07:35.400 to actually be the worst of british posters um not it wasn't the last election he he nailed

00:07:41.300 brexit though so i mean posters can go up and down and and he there was a time when he was the

00:07:47.420 most accurate yes in in one event that wasn't usual as in it didn't represent well this election

00:07:54.380 definitely isn't going to be usual no but it wasn't even a general election i mean you know

00:07:58.240 it wasn't it was a one-off event that was very very strange and the point the point is when

00:08:03.940 outlier polls start showing up yeah you can't just dismiss them because actually a lot of the

00:08:08.820 outlier polls a couple of months ago were showing the decline that's correct and then it happened

00:08:13.440 that's correct so this this could be a harbinger of things to come and the thing is the way that

00:08:18.440 the wind is blowing you can feel the vibe in the air it's not with reform well okay let's not just

00:08:25.780 go with the numbers let's go with the confidence that you actually see the green party are confident

00:08:32.080 in swaggering they are swaggering and they're going out and they're making statements and

00:08:36.020 they're not explaining themselves every time i see reform on tv they are explaining away

00:08:41.240 an attack line against them greens aren't doing that and if you're explaining you're losing yeah

00:08:45.880 exactly the greens what does that plansley do he gives them the kind of chad face to be honest the

00:08:50.220 gap-toothed chad face and goes don't care come and join the green party so that's powerful yeah

00:08:55.460 whether you like it or not that's a powerful move and farage is on the slippery slope of yeah but 0.98

00:09:00.760 yeah but no no it's not quite that no no no and it's like no no you don't do that nigel right and 0.94

00:09:06.120 he's even he's even got a kind of verbal meme that goes into this you see him all the time on 0.98

00:09:11.380 speaking to journalists and he does this wrong wrong wrong oh god yeah and he thinks that makes

00:09:16.720 him look strong because he's got this decisive answer yeah but but you're explaining away you're

00:09:22.920 having to justify yourself zach polanski and hannah spencer and the rest of them they're not

00:09:27.580 justifying they're just going out they're saying their bit people are responding to it now what

00:09:32.120 they're saying is mad and the people who agree with them are mental but that but that's still

00:09:37.860 momentum but the point is that this gives them the sort of vibe-based politics of positivity

00:09:42.680 right their plan is genuinely evil well i don't know how better i could describe it as no they're

00:09:49.100 coming to take your stuff and give it to foreigners yeah that's the literal sole plan of the green

00:09:54.080 party from their perspective though it's a positive vision it's an upbeat message now who

00:10:00.240 tell i mean let's switch to american politics for a second but but who's won the american elections

00:10:05.020 it's always a side with a more upbeat policy yes it's you know yes you know change or it's you know

00:10:10.340 we're going to make a barrier great again or whatever it is positive messages do actually

00:10:14.500 win yes because people are actually looking for something positive in their lives uh so anyway

00:10:19.240 this brutal poll uh i mean like it's so far below the average that you've got to be like okay that

00:10:27.280 can't be real but like you said other polls that were below the average actually were just prescient

00:10:33.120 and have predicted the trend so just saying and also uh remember that we we suggested um a while

00:10:40.740 ago now that uh when farage gets down to about 18 19 percent in the polls he'll probably just quit

00:10:45.760 right because farage is known for just quitting when things are going a bit south uh he likes to

00:10:51.540 sing when he's winning but otherwise he's not the guy so we'll see what happens there uh frankly i

00:10:57.640 think this this is excellent news for people outside of the westminster uniparty consensus

00:11:03.800 because this shows that we don't have any challenges to our right frankly but there's

00:11:10.360 nothing we have to worry about we are the danger no we are on the flank yeah exactly we are the

00:11:15.840 prussians of waterloo here yes yeah absolutely uh so anyway this is what it looks like modeled out

00:11:20.660 And, again, just brutal.

00:11:24.000 The Conservatives would win more seats than Reform

00:11:26.000 because of the concentration of their vote.

00:11:29.460 Well, it's the way that the vote's concentrated, isn't it?

00:11:32.220 Because Reform have got quite a broad quarter of the electorate or so,

00:11:37.020 or fifth of the electorate,

00:11:38.340 but the Conservatives are very focused in the South East.

00:11:41.080 I mean, I think that depresses me more than the Greens winning.

00:11:45.380 Oh, yeah, absolutely.

00:11:46.360 I mean, the Greens winning, at least there's change in it.

00:11:50.660 How disappointing would that be if the Conservatives have failed every test and yet still win?

00:11:59.620 The funny thing about this is, okay, let's say they form a coalition government.

00:12:03.880 Farage has got to go cap in hand to them.

00:12:07.020 They would be the senior partner.

00:12:08.640 It would be Prime Minister Baden-Ock and Deputy PM Nigel Farage.

00:12:14.060 How embarrassing.

00:12:15.780 And then Farage would have to stand up on TV every single time saying,

00:12:20.440 oh yes under kemi's leadership and oh that would be awful wouldn't it anyway so this this is what

00:12:28.960 the map would look like um lots of greens obviously in the uh diversified and woke areas of the

00:12:34.600 country fewer lib dems actually than you'd imagined uh again stronger showing for the conservatives

00:12:40.020 but um but brutal all over and i mean there's a part of me that's kind of like the joke i'm like

00:12:46.140 yeah i i kind of want to see the chaos you know see what happens but uh i don't think this will

00:12:51.640 be what happens i think frankly reform will collapse long before we get to this point yeah

00:12:56.460 so let's let's talk about why why are reform collapsing well i think it's because uh not

00:13:04.260 only all of the other problems that we've mentioned ad nauseum at this point uh the commitment to the

00:13:08.760 triple lock but also um i think the the first bite of every meal is with the eye right as in

00:13:15.200 the chefs always say look if it looks like slop on the plate people won't want to eat it even if

00:13:19.500 it's delicious slop you've ever seen yes and that goes for the renegade right-wing party that's meant

00:13:25.640 to be like right the british people at dunkirk or you know we're fighting back against the the

00:13:30.480 hun or whatever and it's literal boris wavers literally boris wavers here is a boris waver

00:13:37.720 called um was it aaron roy i think which is a weird name but he is an indian as you can see

00:13:43.320 his nationality down there uh he's literally an indian national who set up a no no whites football

00:13:50.900 team he does sound like he should be a 17th century scottish warlord fighting against the

00:13:56.620 english or maybe a pirate or something yes yeah but uh but he's not the only one that we've got

00:14:00.960 the uh famous uh bangladesh student visa candidate another boris waver adimo as uh

00:14:08.180 who will be standing in central south sea now that's weird and then you've got the next one

00:14:16.080 which again is another boris waiver uh called troy troy la coker uh well good good luck troy la

00:14:24.400 coker yeah yeah in your upcoming i like the fact that that farage um you know he his polls started

00:14:32.020 tanking because he because he brought in a load of tories and he was like oh you don't like the

00:14:36.560 stories do you well i'll tell you what you like immigrants yeah what about the boris wave that's

00:14:41.980 what tories and the boris wave that's good that's gonna win you guys over yeah that's that's definitely

00:14:47.160 the thing the british public loves the most yes um and there's not not don't just don't just elect

00:14:53.420 the people who gave you the boris wave elect the literal boris wave as well why are we falling in

00:14:59.780 the pool in the polls nobody knows history it's such a persuasive argument uh and i'm not trying

00:15:05.880 to call shade about these candidates themselves individually um i'm sure they're they're decent

00:15:10.540 upstanding i genuinely wish mr coca good luck yeah exactly you know and you know if he does 0.69

00:15:15.200 something useful then great you know brilliant but the the point is he is literally a nigerian

00:15:21.640 national they didn't even bother to give him like he obviously came here and started this company

00:15:31.780 in 2020 so he's a literal boris waver and it's just and just like with the previous guy a literal

00:15:39.700 boris waver who came here in 2020 and set up a company nationality indian yeah nationality indian

00:15:46.260 it's like why are you you're taking again he's just out doing the tory because the tory's like

00:15:51.820 okay we're gonna get a first generation nigerian immigrant but at least her citizenship is at least

00:15:57.220 she's a citizen on paper on paper at least she's british okay yes whereas they're they're going to 0.86

00:16:03.820 one-up them by saying oh you've got a you've got a um a naturalized uh nigerian well we've got an

00:16:09.140 actual nigerian i mean where do they go from here i mean presumably they actually go to lagos

00:16:15.000 and they get people to run who haven't even got on the plane to come to england yet they're just

00:16:20.660 they're just gonna if they win their seat they're just gonna work from home and dial in on skype

00:16:25.140 from lagos you've got to explain to farage he's not actually running for the leadership of the

00:16:28.900 conservative party like what are you doing here right i'm not sure he knows that well that's the

00:16:34.680 point and i mean i'm sure that he's going to have made statements like we're gonna deport the boris

00:16:40.300 wave and things like that in response to the challenge that he's having for the right so it

00:16:44.160 just like this this whole thing of i mean you didn't didn't didn't see a yusuf the other day

00:16:50.540 come out and say yeah there are a bunch of countries that are going to go on a red list

00:16:53.240 it's like well why are you hiring them as your candidate i noticed that basically every uh every

00:16:59.440 country apart from sri lanka was on that list weird coincidence that uh anyway so yeah i mean

00:17:05.740 literally getting the boris waves as candidates i mean here's one who's doing his social media and

00:17:11.420 campaigning in bengali no why not it's just yeah yeah brilliant just amazing i mean why because

00:17:18.480 he's a bengali man who's on zia yusuf's red list but he can be a reform candidate

00:17:24.360 yes clearly clearly i mean just bonkers preposterous nonsense incoherent why is this 0.59

00:17:33.000 happening why is this happening why would he be taking any of these people rather than just

00:17:39.280 the millions of disenfranchised native british people who would be his natural constituency

00:17:44.940 yes but the problem is if you take those people there is a slight danger that one of them will

00:17:52.240 be at least half an inch to the right of nigel farage which is of course a hanging and a week

00:17:56.860 early yeah and a week early and and nobody could be an inch to the right of uh farage a day early 0.99

00:18:03.640 um without getting binned so absolutely true and unless you're a bengali national in which case

00:18:10.520 your political as long as it's for bengal for bengal then you can be a nationalist yeah but

00:18:16.180 not in reform if you're bangladesh first that's the right kind of bm oh yeah that's that's what

00:18:20.540 we want yeah exactly yeah but that's that's precisely the point and so there have been many

00:18:25.380 people who have noticed and i've seen people saying i got cold call to be a reform candidate

00:18:30.580 today i'm a i'm a member of the labor party right so it's just like right this this has been coming

00:18:36.200 up so much that we'll watch this because he's doing a press conference and one of the journalists

00:18:40.100 It's like, there have been reports that your party's cold calling people to be candidates.

00:18:44.740 Are you really that desperate?

00:18:46.480 Moving on.

00:18:47.400 Lewis Warner, ITV News Central.

00:18:49.980 Hello, thank you.

00:18:51.100 The Tories say you've been cold calling people in Birmingham,

00:18:55.500 basically begging them to stand in the local elections.

00:18:59.300 Is that true?

00:19:00.180 Have you been cold calling people?

00:19:01.760 Are you struggling to get enough candidates?

00:19:04.260 Or can you promise that you will have a full slate of candidates across the West Midlands?

00:19:08.600 I can promise you right now there'll be a full slate of candidates across the West Midlands.

00:19:12.060 End of.

00:19:12.860 What I can also tell you is that the other party, I mean, the Labour Party,

00:19:17.040 have actually been advertising online for candidates in the north-east of England.

00:19:20.960 Have you been cold-calling people the last few days?

00:19:22.720 No, cold-calling would be very, very fruitless, wouldn't it?

00:19:26.140 Have we called paid-up members of the party to see if they want to get engaged?

00:19:29.760 Yes, but of course every party does that.

00:19:31.720 I think you'll find, Lewis, across the country, I mean, I've given you a West Midlands answer.

00:19:35.900 i think you'll find across the whole of the country with over 5 000 candidates if you

00:19:42.080 include scotland and wales as well that all parties are we know all parties are running very

00:19:50.080 very fast the the deadline's 11 a.m on the 9th so in two days time so everyone's got a struggle

00:19:56.520 on but from you've known that deadline's been coming for a long time yeah you have the insurgent

00:20:03.280 party with allegedly 270 000 members although you took the membership tracker off your website

00:20:09.580 they did they did four months ago was it uh so we don't know how many you've got now

00:20:14.540 and we're getting repeated reports of people saying oh they keep cold calling me to stands

00:20:20.000 a candidate and you're taking literal boris wavers as candidates all implies you can't find

00:20:25.980 any native brit can should i tell you the story of how i became a candidate yeah because everybody

00:20:30.100 everybody knows that i was a candidate and i got chucked out because i was basically one inch well

00:20:34.360 i'm more than one inch to the right of raj now at the time but at the time i was one inch to the

00:20:39.760 right of raj and so they had to get rid of me but the story about how i became a reform candidate

00:20:43.500 in the first place is even more interesting so i had been loosely involved with ucap ukit back in

00:20:48.940 the day like you were yeah and um i hadn't really done anything with reform um and and i just started

00:20:55.300 getting this series of emails which when i read them it was like it it basically just treated me

00:21:01.580 like i was the candidate for seven oaks now i hadn't had any conversation with them i just

00:21:06.540 started getting these emails it's like oh we're supporting you in seven oaks and stuff like this

00:21:10.600 and i and i had to read a few emails because it wasn't clear because he was clearly joining a

00:21:14.520 chain somewhere on of a whole series of candidate support emails and um you know but i'm not the

00:21:21.220 candidate for seven oaks so i rang them up and said um do you think i'm the candidate for seven

00:21:25.800 oaks because i'm not and they're like well why don't you why aren't you like to be why aren't

00:21:30.760 you the candidate for seven oaks it's like well i live in winchester and so um you know what and

00:21:36.280 you know i don't live anywhere near seven oaks why would i be the candidate for seven oaks

00:21:39.520 and they're like oh okay fair enough so anyway those emails stopped and then i started getting

00:21:43.620 emails treating me like i was a candidate for winchester and then i was like um okay right

00:21:50.800 well i guess i'll go along with it then yeah so this is this is this is why i was so completely

00:21:55.460 unbothered as to when they chucked me off i didn't actually ask to become a candidate in the first

00:22:01.140 place so so maybe that's how mr coker and mr roy and yeah the other boys way but maybe that's how

00:22:06.920 they ended up as candidates they just they just didn't they just didn't object strongly enough

00:22:10.600 to the spam email that that basically listed them as a candidate maybe uh but that's that's the the

00:22:16.160 point though uh like of all of this is that i mean back then i bet they didn't have too many

00:22:20.980 troubles finding candidates right well they must have something that's how i ended up one but okay

00:22:25.740 maybe maybe but that was like 2021 something like that 22 something like that um so they're at the

00:22:31.720 time doing quite well in the polls and they are the insurgent coming up at that time now when

00:22:36.460 they're coming down to basically seem to be scrambling for literally anyone yeah they can

00:22:41.260 be foreign nationals we don't care if they're foreign nationals and yeah yeah we're cold calling

00:22:46.060 people obviously it would be nice if you visited the uk in the last 10 years but whatever i mean

00:22:51.080 it's not mandatory you know uh and then you've got uh his pitch to basically uh rupert lowe's

00:22:58.860 rhetoric no migrant who enters britain illegally should ever be allowed to walk our streets

00:23:03.440 they will be detained and deported under a reformed government who uses the rhetoric detained 0.71

00:23:07.820 and deport that's a restore line exactly that's rupert lowe that's literally what one of the lines

00:23:13.880 that got him kicked out of reform detain and deport you know and there are the the mixes going

00:23:19.620 around of him saying over and over and suddenly farage is saying why because they're in the

00:23:23.500 decline they're realizing this the sand is flowing between their fingers i mean this this reform is

00:23:30.240 the only party putting the british people first that's rupert lowe's sign camp i was gonna say

00:23:35.520 that's a restore line word for word that is and there's no way you would have said that six months

00:23:41.180 ago cheeky beggar you would have got kicked out of your party for that oh yeah but again you were 0.70

00:23:45.660 a week early and an inch to the right of farage but now he's got to the britain first position 0.98

00:23:50.220 so oh oh have we have we got there night so anyway i thought we'd have a look at then why this is

00:23:57.340 happening yeah so we can see that the sand is pouring through their fingers they're on the

00:24:02.240 downswing they're scrambling for just any we need candidates we need candidates yeah okay we knew

00:24:06.340 the may elections were coming for a long time but no we're right down to the wire now well

00:24:10.100 on the other side of it you've got rupert lowe now you've got the restore uh britain party coming

00:24:16.160 in eight percent here but this was a commissioned poll from find out now so it prompted for restore

00:24:22.500 britain and so everyone's like well i don't know if that's really a thing are you really turning

00:24:26.320 up well yeah but i mean reform greens tories labor and libden were also prompted for yes and

00:24:31.400 they're it's not like it's like would you like to vote for restore britain or anyone else no they

00:24:36.620 they were listed along alongside all of the rest of them but what's interesting as well is well

00:24:42.600 look at the average look at the um polling there that's basically the averages that we're seeing

00:24:47.460 on the polar polls yeah it is 25 greens at 19 tories and labor middling along at the bottom

00:24:53.280 but that's actually quite representative it is if we go back to the point

00:24:57.520 well the polls is really not unrepresentative at all that's actually really really close

00:25:04.640 so it's one less point for labor one more for lib dems but otherwise it's the same numbers

00:25:07.900 exactly it's really really close so to say oh you you can't trust it well i mean i'm not saying you

00:25:13.600 can trust this but on all of the other metrics it seems to have been nailing exactly basically

00:25:19.880 where everyone is so i don't feel inclined to be like oh yeah but when it comes to restoring

00:25:24.820 and can't be and so but everyone's like okay well no they commissioned this okay yeah yeah fair

00:25:29.180 and fair enough what about a poll but nobody would dismiss a poll on the basis that they

00:25:32.960 that one of the prompts was reform or greens or tories or anything like that of course not um

00:25:38.200 but okay fine so let's go to a poll where they weren't prompted because they made their first

00:25:42.500 appearance in a yougov poll this week at four percent now this uh and again look at the look

00:25:48.460 at the numbers right reform 24 conservatives 19 which seems unlikely labor 16 green 16 lib dem

00:25:56.960 13 restore britain 4 now that is particularly interesting because this wasn't prompted well

00:26:04.200 you had you had to make the effort to go no other type it in exactly and they explain that here

00:26:11.260 where they say look um and they i'm going to read out just because it's one of those things where

00:26:15.860 you can see that they're like we know we should be prompting this right they say poland companies

00:26:22.680 typically initially prompt for the main nationwide parties as well as the snp in scotland and play

00:26:27.320 and wales and give them the option of some other party for people who say other a follow-up question

00:26:32.260 will typically then ask which other party they support but above a certain level of support

00:26:36.400 only including a party in the second follow-up question can risk understating their support

00:26:41.220 exactly where the crossover is and at what point the party should be promoted in the main prompt

00:26:45.740 is a matter of judgment in the past you gov has normally addressed this issue by doing test polls

00:26:50.020 with no prompting at all such tests today show similar levels of support for restore britain

00:26:54.080 and your party to when they are included only in the second follow-up prompt suggesting it is an

00:26:58.340 accurate reflection of their public support nonetheless given the interest in the parties

00:27:01.780 and the fact their respective levels of support have remained consistent over recent weeks we do

00:27:06.020 feel it is appropriate to report them separately as in they're not prompting yet but they are

00:27:10.780 actually included having the conversation about prompting they're not just shoving them another

00:27:14.440 right so that's very interesting because that and what that says is actually yeah maybe it is

00:27:22.200 eight percent because it's four percent when it doesn't get well and and look how other absolutely

00:27:27.260 collapses when you yeah spit out restore of course yes but yeah the it eight percent is you know if

00:27:34.160 you're going to do these sort of poll of polls then six percent average for a party that is what

00:27:39.520 three weeks old now is roughly where it is i mean farage is oh you're only gonna get one percent

00:27:45.720 isn't looking so credible now actually it's gonna be one percent it's it's just way beyond that

00:27:51.040 already yep uh and so that's that's pretty rough for farage uh especially given the consistent

00:27:57.580 decline of his own party uh so yeah this and this was the moment i've been waiting for for a long

00:28:03.240 time when just unprompted in non uh commissioned polls restore starts turning up that's when you

00:28:11.500 know okay now we've got traction now and this is really you know we've we've got our teeth into

00:28:16.640 something and now we're pulling and this was after the nationwide advertising campaign as well so

00:28:22.000 just to be clear if you know if you're restore uh britain sports when you're watching uh those

00:28:26.680 nationwide advertising campaigns with a party that will put britain first that works that's what

00:28:32.760 people have been oh thank god someone's gonna actually prioritize our concerns for once i mean

00:28:37.420 it's crazy that putting the needs of the british people as your number one priority would would

00:28:42.020 have cut through but apparently it does it's remarkable that it would need to be written down

00:28:46.060 yes right but yeah as you say apparently it does i mean you know nigel farage and his chagos first

00:28:52.080 campaign i mean you've you saw the chagossian campaign he was running it's like the we need

00:28:58.040 the chagossians to have a homeland for their people i mean if only reform were as nationalist

00:29:02.760 for the british as they are for the chagossians it would be great but anyway so why why restore

00:29:09.520 britain finding this traction and the answer is of course because they are just basically

00:29:14.680 no-nonsense straightforward right-wing politics um here's uh rupert lowe on the bow show which was

00:29:22.220 if you didn't watch it go watch it was yesterday's bow show was it um uh where rupert lowe just

00:29:27.140 called in and just explains and what what i like about this is he a lot of people are online are

00:29:34.220 hoping oh rupert lowe is going to be like extreme right-wing it's like no he's not an extreme

00:29:38.300 right-winger he's a very sensible right-winger this is just sensible right-wing politics to begin

00:29:43.860 from where we actually are because a lot of the problem with like the online discourse is that

00:29:48.660 when things are agreed and become like you know the common knowledge and desire of those people

00:29:53.400 like the the the dialectic keeps moving forward right and so they're like yeah you know what we're 0.98

00:29:59.200 gonna have to do is deport every single follower uh foreigner and they're like huh rupert lowe

00:30:03.220 doesn't say that it's like no of course he doesn't say that he's a mainstream mp he is heading in the

00:30:09.740 direction you have already been in right that's what you have to bear in mind rupert lowe is not

00:30:14.960 going to come out with hardline rhetoric he's going to come out with sensible rhetoric that

00:30:19.060 prioritises the British people, and is that direction of travel. 1.00

00:30:22.360 We should start with the people arriving illegally, and we should detain and deport them. 1.00

00:30:27.620 We should then find the people living here illegally, and we should detain and deport 1.00

00:30:32.440 them. 1.00

00:30:32.980 Illegal means illegal in my book.

00:30:35.560 And, you know, if you or I do something illegal, we end up in court, which is what happens

00:30:41.060 when you break the law.

00:30:43.000 And illegal means breaking the law. 0.99

00:30:45.560 And then I said I would turn my attention to, after I deported the 10,500 foreign criminals in our prisons, 1.00

00:30:53.380 I would turn my attention to those people who are living here, who've come here, 1.00

00:30:58.760 and who have effectively been welcomed here, who are effectively not contributing to Britain,

00:31:05.580 who are claiming benefits, and who are a cost to the British taxpayer.

00:31:10.440 and i will turn my attention to them and rather in the same way that denmark and sweden are doing

00:31:15.880 it now having pursued very misguided policies in in 2015 they are actually encouraging people to

00:31:23.560 leave the country uh who are not making a contribution no completely sensible yes not 0.99

00:31:30.620 like radical goggle-eyed neo-nazi rhetoric and things like that no we've got a load of foreigners 1.00

00:31:35.620 here who are draining the system that you and i are paying for why are they here and it tells you 1.00

00:31:41.820 everything about british politics that a series of statements as mild and as common sense as that

00:31:47.100 is considered an anathema to the entire existing political system even reform which pitches itself

00:31:55.860 as a radical party oh yeah i mean there's no way nigel farage would get to the point where he'd say

00:32:03.280 yeah foreigners on benefits can go home which is what rupert's saying here no you would never

00:32:08.320 no you'd try and recruit them as candidates not even an exaggeration um but that's the point is

00:32:15.100 it's no nonsense straightforward just right-wing politics that prioritizes the interests of the

00:32:19.380 british people right and just to be clear for anyone listening who's like part of the online

00:32:23.400 right who's been part of the dialectical sort of echo chamber advancing it's like you know what we

00:32:27.920 need to do don't expect your politics to be reflected from there expect just the the the

00:32:35.500 beginning steps and that rupert has very sensibly said no this is the thing this is the thing and

00:32:41.320 then that is the thing and that gets the country back in the right direction the direction of

00:32:45.620 travel has to be realigned right you having your fantasy end goal of whatever you think is going

00:32:51.880 to happen no no no put that out of your mind because that's you making up a fantasy in your

00:32:56.140 head to console yourself with the complete degradation of the country well and it's also

00:33:00.380 even if you are wedded to that it's a lot easier to get to it once you've got mountain is climbed

00:33:05.440 one step at a time yes yes exactly so uh calm down and the reason again not just straightforward

00:33:12.720 no nonsense uh clear right-wing politics that just is in everyone's interest like you know and

00:33:21.180 this isn't dividing on race or anything like that if you're if you've been here for 30 years and 0.96

00:33:25.040 you've been paying taxes the whole time yeah you want that too right you want these parasites is 0.83

00:33:29.900 is divided is divided on are you british because we're going to put the british first i mean that's 1.00

00:33:34.220 a that's a perfectly sensible dividing line to have absolutely and lots of lots of foreigners

00:33:39.280 who are here who are happy with britain being run as a british country are also on that train

00:33:46.120 no no i didn't come here to be a welfare sponge i don't see why you know because they they pay

00:33:51.540 taxes too so completely sensible right and then you've got the other things that he's doing as he

00:33:55.880 revealed on uh beau's uh show yesterday um the rape gang inquiry report will be published soon

00:34:03.700 and i'm sure we'll be doing a lot of coverage on this because from what they posted the snippets

00:34:08.360 they posted out of it just horrific but the point is everyone's been saying they're going to do it

00:34:13.540 and who is the one politician who actually did it yeah and it's incredible um rupert's journey

00:34:18.660 into this because the reason he did this in the first place is not because he originally made

00:34:23.000 this pledge he was sat next to nigel farage when he made the pledge and he was like well okay i'm

00:34:29.240 in the same party as as nigel farage when he stood up and said that with my him as my leader at the

00:34:34.480 time that bound me and so even after he was chucked out he was like no i have to fulfill that pledge

00:34:41.380 i'm gonna do it and he did it and reform still haven't done it yes and not only that but reform

00:34:46.800 have kind of dismissed him over it and and poured scorn on him saying well it wasn't a statutory

00:34:51.380 inquiry it's like yeah no it wasn't but giving the victims a platform to be properly heard where

00:34:57.940 they're not going to be hectored by labor counselors or lawyers or whatever to shut them up was probably

00:35:03.760 the most useful thing this is leadership yeah exactly right but also it's honor right he he

00:35:09.060 was bound by an oath you made nigel and he carried it out and he went through but it was a long

00:35:14.820 process it was an expensive process and it was an uncomfortable process right it was horrible

00:35:20.240 i've spoken to him since it's horrible being sat there having to listen to these horror stories

00:35:26.800 over and over and over and you're just like my god uh and so when that comes out we'll we'll do

00:35:32.000 a deep dive into it because um you need to know how things have been i don't want to know but i

00:35:37.660 need to know you've got to look these things in the face because this is what the establishment

00:35:41.280 have covered up uh and the final thing is that uh he's got absolutely no concern for liberal pieties

00:35:47.260 and this is like you don't you don't know you don't know what he's replying to here do you

00:35:52.180 i'm gonna take a wild guess somebody was trying to shame him for not um internalizing some liberal

00:35:59.620 piety well that's that's exactly what it is all right but uh yeah unbelievable diversity a very 0.99

00:36:05.240 well attended restore britain branch he's just like nobody in restore britain gives a shit that 0.91

00:36:09.960 that's not the metrics of which you should be caring about well and that's and that's the point 0.86

00:36:14.360 that we've been looking for this whole time right it's like no the liberals can't shame him that's

00:36:19.580 the problem that's the difference between him and farage yeah farage no no no look at my boris

00:36:24.100 wavers look at my foreigners they're literally indian and bangladeshian you know nigerian 0.89

00:36:30.020 nationals no no no i i i care about diversity yeah i know that's the problem nigel you care 0.91

00:36:36.080 about all of this rupert wants to get the problems fixed and that's and that's this is the superpower

00:36:42.440 that zach polanski has been demonstrating and as you've been pointing out i you think that the

00:36:48.220 future is going to be greens versus restore and to be honest with you i think you're right because

00:36:53.140 if you look at the demographics of these things right it's some younger people some slightly

00:36:59.200 older people but all of these people you can tell are like middle-aged have jobs or small businesses

00:37:05.860 have families and are invested in the country even the older people they're gen x they're not

00:37:11.320 have you seen a reform yeah they're all silverhead yes right yeah the older people like you know our

00:37:16.140 age or a bit older sort of you know late 50s maybe but not retirees no right that's and this

00:37:21.680 is consistent this was at the swindon um restore britain um what what i see is a bunch of people

00:37:28.940 with kids yeah and they're thinking how the hell is my child going to buy a house it's just like us

00:37:34.080 yeah it's just like us it's the people who are actually working and paying the taxes yes yes

00:37:39.700 who are like no no i've got a business i've got a future my family are here my business is here

00:37:44.500 how can we survive this yeah and it's it's over and over and the branches are growing really

00:37:49.660 really nicely i mean here's john perry from uh haven't branch i don't even know what that is to

00:37:53.360 be honest right okay there we go but his membership's increased by 27 percent uh uh in the in the

00:38:00.320 past month or two no just month actually uh so the branches are going really really well

00:38:06.040 and uh there's here's a great post by frank here who is saying look in scotland we're seeing

00:38:11.480 massive response to this as well right and he explains in great detail but it really really

00:38:16.900 sums up at the bottom here right because he's like look we're not radicals we're not insane

00:38:20.780 people who are just hateful or anything like this right but he gets to the bottom here and there's a

00:38:25.420 great uh it's a very long post right but there's a common thread that's running through all of

00:38:31.420 these memberships um that you want they want scotland in his case but britain to feel like

00:38:37.500 home again right a place where your values mean something where your voice counts where your kids

00:38:41.680 have a fair crack at a decent life without being made to feel ashamed of who they are where they

00:38:45.240 come from right that's what this is we need to restore what's lost before it slips away for good

00:38:50.480 the window won't stay open forever and thousands joining across scotland and of course the rest of

00:38:54.720 more broadly understand that better than anyone else and that's why they're all those people of

00:38:59.480 this sort of age cohort like no no i remember what the country was like when i was young it

00:39:03.740 wasn't like this no i have to do my part um and so honestly i think it's worth this thing getting

00:39:08.960 into the demographic the demographic clock that is ticking that i alluded to at the beginning

00:39:13.780 yeah so i mean this is because i mean i i will do that brokonomics on the triple lock and and the

00:39:19.440 whole boomer situation but i mean my my starting process is just to start looking at some sort of

00:39:24.520 fundamental data and actually it screams something to you as soon as you start looking at it and so

00:39:29.800 basically what i got here is the generations so starting the silent generation baby boomers gen

00:39:34.920 x millennials gen z and gen alpha who are they're all under 18 at this point yeah yeah um and i've

00:39:41.600 i've used because the definitions can vary slightly as to which year so i put down the years that i'm

00:39:46.780 using um what what the current age range for those individuals are and then how many of them are there

00:39:53.480 in the voter pool so of course with the gen alpha there's zero of them in the voter pool because 0.98

00:39:57.060 none of them are 18 yet now when you look at it like this okay you can see that the baby boomers 0.98

00:40:02.480 even now even though they're sort of in their in their what should we say mortality window 0.98

00:40:07.760 62 to 80 still 13 million of it just goes to show what a large generation they were what what a

00:40:13.500 disproportionate influence they've had throughout their entire lives um but we're at a point where

00:40:17.720 the millennials are slightly larger yeah however what you're going to take into account is their

00:40:22.960 propensity to vote yeah and the boomers have had like you know a lot more attrition than the

00:40:28.060 millennials yes and they're older they're a lot older you know when when you take into account

00:40:32.140 the propensity to vote you can see why the boomers get pounded to so much so they realize voters are

00:40:38.800 nine million and that just that is just it's just stronger than everybody else yeah um yes of course 0.84

00:40:45.220 used to be stronger you can see i mean compared compared to the silent generation we're fairly

00:40:48.880 small and you can tell that the silent generation was small generation because gen x's are largely

00:40:52.800 the children of the silent generation and they're a small generation so you can see

00:40:58.620 just how dominant the baby boomers are now a lot of the boomers um did have kids fairly young but 0.73

00:41:03.240 only had two kids as well yeah and so you know and then you'll always have a percentage of each

00:41:07.440 generation that doesn't have kids yeah so the gen x is a definite step down on that and that's us

00:41:12.160 yeah yeah um exactly and and i should just provide the proviso because there's always people

00:41:18.480 who sort of hit the caps button and start tapping whenever we mention i'm not saying that the baby

00:41:24.520 booms or any other generation are a monolith or hive mind that all think the same way but

00:41:30.440 evidently if your policy set is things like um really doubling down on the triple log that is

00:41:37.280 obviously a boomer coded policy which you are pursuing for the boomer vote even if you

00:41:42.920 individually don't agree with that particular aspect of it or not the millennials are not

00:41:46.920 worried about their pensions they're worried about trying to buy a house i don't think the

00:41:50.200 millennials have any expectations of getting a pension i don't some some of the gen x's might

00:41:54.320 have an expectation of getting a pension but we're both gen x's and we don't we're the younger end

00:41:58.800 of gen x and we don't think we're getting pensions yeah we we're very close we're very close to the

00:42:03.020 end of um i think within months or something of it running out so anyway so realized voters you

00:42:08.720 you see why if your strategy like nigel farage is as far as i want to win the next election

00:42:17.280 you double down on the boomers because they give you by far the most realized votes and the um

00:42:23.000 and and the gen x's you know they're they're probably starting to think about their pension

00:42:28.100 a bit maybe one or two of the more naive millennials might think they actually get one

00:42:32.100 of course they won't but you can see the strategy hard to hard to believe that beyond gen x there's

00:42:36.960 any concern about pensions at all other than in the other direction of stop triple locking me out

00:42:42.160 of existence please yeah and and and um you know i can't speak for all gen x's but sod it i will

00:42:47.980 um you should just take it away from us yeah take it away we got we got i mean i suppose it's going

00:42:53.340 to be a little bit rougher at the top end you see the top end of gen x is oh 61 blimey i mean

00:42:59.380 yeah they're in their 60s yeah um but i mean certainly the younger end they've they've got

00:43:05.020 time to to make alternative provisions i mean i i'd willingly give it up if if it applied i just

00:43:11.400 don't think we're gonna get it so it doesn't matter the money's gonna run out yeah okay so 0.98

00:43:16.540 now let's look at so that's today what is it like in five years because like i say the the boomers

00:43:25.200 and the silent generation are in their mortality window well suddenly five years is a very

00:43:31.780 different picture even gen x outnumber as realized voters the boomers even gen x this is this is a

00:43:40.280 i i i calculated this the other day i did this inspire what you're doing here because

00:43:44.580 i calculated how many uh voters reform would lose just between now and 2029 i don't think it did

00:43:52.480 maybe subconsciously if you mention that to me because that that's that's what is it nearly

00:43:56.520 three million uh or two and a half million boomers just on attrition alone in five years right but in

00:44:03.120 three years i i can't i had chat gpt calculate it and then i was like right what percentage of those

00:44:09.000 are reform voters based on the current polls and reform are going to lose half a million voters

00:44:13.380 just on age yep and that's just from the boomers that's not even from the science generation yes

00:44:18.880 um so it's it's one of those things where it's like you're on a clock well exactly i'm gonna i'm

00:44:24.260 gonna talk about clocks in a minute but in just five years and the reason i the reason i just did

00:44:28.200 it today in five years is because we don't know when the election is going to be i mean all sorts

00:44:31.220 of things could happen so i just thought i'll just pick round numbers yeah so even even gen x's

00:44:35.760 overtake boomers at this point and gen x's have children who are trying to buy houses um certainly

00:44:41.380 the younger one i mean we do i mean actually i mean uh my children are gen alpha so i actually

00:44:45.280 skipped two generations yeah um i know you've got gen alpha children as well i don't know if you've

00:44:49.420 got i've i've got uh two zoomers and two alphas right okay alphas are a lot more demanding than

00:44:55.220 the zoomers right really making me like the zoomers a lot yeah millennials they start to

00:45:02.200 dominate at this point in only five years the millennials are the dominant force and and as a 0.96

00:45:07.320 gen x's we've always known all gen x's have known that our moment in the sun is never coming we're

00:45:11.820 getting skipped over immediately um but gen z starts to come through at this point because

00:45:17.160 you know there's this is why we need the gen z gen x yeah act boys we're with you yeah exactly

00:45:22.760 because again there were slightly smaller generation but and but their propensity to

00:45:26.680 vote is rising and then look at it in 10 years right the boomers are an x force in british

00:45:33.580 politics in 10 years their pensions silent generation hardly factor at all gen x um you 0.90

00:45:39.340 know um have a little bit of influence but not much but yeah millennials and gen z well no we're

00:45:44.820 going to be we're going to be a fairly powerful voting bloc yeah i mean but but but then i mean

00:45:49.140 that what that gives you is gonna get our pensions in the end yeah but but i mean the the gen x they

00:45:55.040 they have grown up knowing that their children struggled with getting a house but maybe their

00:46:00.500 children do get a house millennials struggled really hard to get a house themselves if they

00:46:05.040 even do within the next 10 years and their kids sure as hell do and and but gen z and gen alpha

00:46:11.060 i mean they're just they're just looking at absolute cliff i mean one thing i've noticed

00:46:15.340 about gen x um is actually a lot more concern for the well-being of their children the boomers had

00:46:21.780 i don't mean to sound crass or anything about that and i'm not saying that like you said that's

00:46:26.820 not all boomers or anything like that but there's a general tone of definitely notice that yeah i i

00:46:33.700 and and gen x seem to be far more sort of interested in having children as well actually than the

00:46:39.220 boomers yeah like there's a lot more pride in having a big family in gen x there isn't the

00:46:44.480 boomers yeah um and i would i would i'm particularly concerned but i've noticed this that the concern

00:46:50.600 for their own children is high higher than it was but the thing is it's probably not even a surprise

00:46:54.980 because the boomers as far as they're concerned are still living in like 1975 yes so it's just

00:46:59.360 like okay yeah what's the world like it's amazing like yeah i bet it was amazing i bet you've got

00:47:03.880 no worries for your kids but actually i'm really worried because my kids are still in the schools

00:47:07.900 and i can see the bloody schools you know your kids have grown up and got houses by now because

00:47:12.120 we're your kids yeah you know you know we're fine yeah great but like my kids are not going to be

00:47:17.040 fine so you know oh no i i want i want to help them while i can well i mean it's getting to the

00:47:22.100 point if if you're a younger gen x or an older millennial i mean you're just hoping your kids 0.95

00:47:26.020 don't get set upon by a gang of feral immigrants, 0.95

00:47:29.240 let alone get in a bloody house. 0.99

00:47:31.520 So anyway, where this gets us to, 0.88

00:47:33.500 if you look at the sort of blocks, 0.73

00:47:36.380 you've got the Silents and Boomers, 0.95

00:47:37.800 who in 10 years' time are effectively an X-Force. 0.71

00:47:41.400 And it's this Gen X millennial block,

00:47:43.920 which is going to be powerful.

00:47:46.120 And so then I wanted to talk about...

00:47:47.840 Let's just go back to that very quickly.

00:47:50.900 And this is what's really interesting,

00:47:53.440 is that look at Rupert Lowe's rhetoric.

00:47:55.560 right do you see the post he made the other day it's like look people aren't wrong for voting

00:47:59.260 greens and this is the strategies that lansky took people aren't wrong for being concerned

00:48:02.840 about immigration it's just not being managed properly we're going to have infinite immigration

00:48:06.420 we're just going to manage it yeah all right well managed fast replacement yeah no no that's

00:48:10.960 actually awful and probably worse to be honest with you uh to have well managed replacement um

00:48:17.240 but rupert's taking the same tack on the other side no no people are not wrong for wanting more

00:48:21.840 economic fairness out of the way that the world is structured yeah absolutely cost of living crisis

00:48:26.880 through the roof buying house good luck these are real problems that young people have to worry

00:48:31.780 about and so restore a position themselves to inherit this demographic well this is my whole

00:48:37.240 argument if your only goal is to win the next election to make yourself nigel farage pm

00:48:43.620 then i completely understand the strategy if your strategy is to change britain save the country you

00:48:51.020 don't do it in one election it makes i mean this this just explains perfectly why the greens are

00:48:58.320 doing well and and why and i think i don't think restore need me to tell them this i think they

00:49:03.440 understand this entirely but the correct strategy for restore is to is to is to go in for um the

00:49:10.460 younger yeah the younger demographic because gen x are not hostile to messaging for younger people

00:49:17.060 because they understand the situation they're also the most reactionary people in the country

00:49:20.480 yes but millennials are going to respond well to it because they they have been living this for

00:49:25.240 some time gen x are obviously going to respond well because they they realize that the whole

00:49:30.160 battles of the millennials had they have now got coming their way only on on somehow an even harder

00:49:35.060 difficulty setting um yeah yeah that's exactly the right way to frame it as well yeah you and

00:49:40.540 the thing is the millennials still have the advantage of growing up in schools that were

00:49:44.320 mostly white british yes gen z and gen alpha will not have that luxury no right they

00:49:50.340 and it doesn't matter where in the country you live by the way no absolutely not and and they

00:49:53.960 are they are much more aware of difference than the previous generations are prepared to admit

00:50:00.980 like nigel farage is typically symptomatic of the boomers even though he's actually very old gen x

00:50:05.900 yeah he's got typically symptomatic of oh i would never talk about race it's like look man you think 0.97

00:50:10.660 the gen z kids are like oh i'm not going to talk about race when they're in school and there are 0.73

00:50:13.900 gangs that each form they all have to they have to they have no choice they don't colorblind is

00:50:19.440 not an option absolutely not it is a clear and present element in their lives so that attitude

00:50:25.020 going absolutely in five years time gone what what all of this tells me is that the greens are

00:50:31.060 doing the right thing um restore i'm almost certain will go down this line because

00:50:36.260 because what's the point of another party that is competing against reform the triple labor

00:50:42.960 the lib dems and the conservative party for the dwindling boomer vote it doesn't make any sense

00:50:48.220 So I'm convinced that Restore,

00:50:50.180 they don't need me to tell this,

00:50:51.440 but they will be doubling down on the vote on this as well.

00:50:54.840 What it tells me is in 10 years' time,

00:50:56.340 we're going to be back to a two-party system,

00:50:58.280 but that two-party system is going to be Greens and Restore.

00:51:00.840 Great.

00:51:02.200 Honestly, that's great.

00:51:02.880 That's a battle we can win.

00:51:04.140 Yeah.

00:51:04.820 Really easily.

00:51:05.460 Yeah, absolutely.

00:51:06.660 Because, I mean, if you look at, like,

00:51:07.480 the Gen X and Millennials alone could win the battle,

00:51:10.620 but Gen Z and Alpha, what have they got to lose?

00:51:13.040 Yeah. 0.96

00:51:13.960 And they are ramping up in realised voters

00:51:16.880 quite strongly over the next couple of elections is four of them okay you can you can ignore it

00:51:21.160 when it's four of them sure not when there's nine of them nine million of them absolutely and the

00:51:25.040 thing is they've got every reason to be essentially sort of jihadis at this point like for for a for

00:51:30.860 a based order so i i didn't call them jihadis in my analysis but i've got i've got something very

00:51:37.960 similar because basically my argument is there were three clocks ticking at the same time yes

00:51:42.180 you've got the mortality clock i mean that kind of speaks for itself yes the boomers are the

00:51:46.180 largest block currently but that is going to that is going to shrink materially over the next

00:51:50.960 decade you've got the maturation clock this is that as people get over get older well as gen as

00:51:57.140 gen alpha get older they enter the the voter pool as gen z get older millennials get older their

00:52:02.780 propensity to vote is going up yeah but the most important one is this one is it's the grievance

00:52:07.200 accumulator clock what you might call the jihadi clock yeah what it's basically saying is is that 0.54

00:52:12.480 Look, even if the millennials do eventually get their home 0.91

00:52:17.000 and they do eventually get their family, 0.97

00:52:20.300 they have spent a lot of time on the grievance clock 0.93

00:52:23.380 where they know how ridiculous...

00:52:25.580 They know that they're having their first kid at 36 or 37 or 38 0.90

00:52:30.440 and not at early 30s or late 20s.

00:52:33.340 We've got to fix the student loan problem.

00:52:34.740 Yes.

00:52:34.940 The interest on student loans is just highway robbery.

00:52:37.220 Yeah.

00:52:37.540 It's got to stop.

00:52:38.880 Yeah.

00:52:39.520 And as I point out here,

00:52:40.920 a 38 year old who's locked out of home ownership is a hell of a lot more dangerous than a 22 year

00:52:45.760 old renter because he has a higher propensity to turn out and he's got a lot less patience

00:52:51.640 and he's got the ability to affect things and every single political party apart from

00:52:58.060 the greens and i hope restore are have have inverted all of these clocks yeah extract from

00:53:04.440 the 38 year old to give to the dwindling boomers yeah and then and then presumably what they what

00:53:09.080 they hope and that's why i specifically added the grievance accumulator clock is presumably they

00:53:14.200 hope they can win an election off the back of of buddha boomer coded policies and then at the next

00:53:19.880 election or the election after that they can just flip and that people are just going to forget it's

00:53:23.980 like oh yeah oh i yeah i forget the resentment building up in the grievance accumulation clock

00:53:29.180 isn't going away no you're not just gonna be able to dissipate it and this is why labor and

00:53:33.100 conservatives are down so low in the polls i mean if we go back to the um uh poll of polls i mean

00:53:39.280 look at that 18 and 17 percent you think people are coming back to you no you think they're

00:53:42.920 forgiving you for selling them out that that is a bunch of very low salience voters who who who

00:53:48.780 check politics every four years and haven't got the memo yet that those parties are dead but feel

00:53:53.760 zach polanski's vibe because he is correct that there is a cost of living crisis oh no i was

00:53:58.580 talking about the conservatives oh yeah yeah but look at the greens at 19 and that you know

00:54:02.240 dominating yeah because what happens is the greens and the labor well probably mainly the labor

00:54:06.880 but it's people who don't check politics more than every sort of four or five years every so often

00:54:11.260 one of them checks in yeah like what's going on here oh i think i'll take green and another one

00:54:15.640 goes over yeah that's exactly what's happening but uh but yeah so anyway right this this is one

00:54:21.960 of those things where i think you're actually uh right and again like with all predictions you

00:54:26.100 don't know what's going to happen tomorrow you know something i do know what's going to happen

00:54:29.600 in 10 years well yeah yeah absolutely we we know how many uh of each cohort will be here actually

00:54:34.840 in 10 years it's it's it's just not difficult maths to be honest it's no no it's straightforward

00:54:39.560 and this this is going to affect the way that british politics goes because like i say this

00:54:45.520 this i hate to say boomer entitlement about pensions kind of is uh is is going to become

00:54:53.480 less politically viable and actually it will be the millennials hitting their 40s and 50s

00:54:59.980 with gen x hitting their 60s the younger gen x hitting their 60s who are going to be a huge

00:55:04.660 and i know we're going to get some pushback but look let me just bottom line it right

00:55:07.920 the pension system is it it is a benefit yeah it is part of the welfare bill and it's a transfer

00:55:15.640 from a less rich cohort to a more rich cohort.

00:55:22.000 That's what it is.

00:55:23.340 Let's not say every boomer is rich.

00:55:24.900 No.

00:55:25.780 On average.

00:55:26.180 But the cohort as a whole is transferring money

00:55:29.100 from the poor to the rich.

00:55:31.320 And moreover, the benefits bill has just surpassed the tax bill.

00:55:37.060 Yes, yes, I saw that. 0.99

00:55:38.700 If it wasn't for this Iran stuff, 0.99

00:55:40.280 I would have done a segment on that. 0.57

00:55:42.160 But yeah, in case you're wondering

00:55:43.640 how much of your taxes are going um to to welfare it's all of it yes every penny more and and then

00:55:52.360 and then a bit more as well they have to take some from corporation tax and inheritance tax as well

00:55:56.960 and again for anyone wondering actually 53 percent of the country are net beneficiaries of state

00:56:02.500 money rather than net taxpayers i mean 47 percent of people why can a country not prosper when

00:56:08.600 there's more beneficiaries than there are workers i mean yes why not and the benefits bill has

00:56:13.720 become larger than the amount that the treasury takes in in tax so this this is not a system

00:56:19.460 that's going to last right this cannot possibly last well this is why you know both of us even

00:56:25.220 as gen x's say yeah i've just written off the pension yeah i just thought we're not going to

00:56:29.480 get it yeah exactly i'm i'm i'm i'm trying to make sure i've bought my house outright by the

00:56:34.680 time i retire so any money i can still make doing youtube videos is enough to cover my daily expenses

00:56:42.240 which are not great you know which are not very high that's that's my plan an old man rambling

00:56:47.380 into the camera what am i supposed to expect you know what my plans but anyway yeah so um

00:56:54.560 basically selfishly i hope you do well 30 years from now well you'll still be there on camera

00:57:00.560 making my day oh god yeah no i mean maybe and to be honest the worst fates but uh but anyway yeah

00:57:09.040 so that's what we think is going to be the general status quo uh moving forward into the future and

00:57:15.540 actually i think it's kind of locked in at this point i think tories and labor are dying i think

00:57:20.420 reform is going to go down like it is but i think uh restore is going to continue going up because

00:57:26.340 honestly reform just doesn't seem to have the conviction they still seem to have the conviction

00:57:30.420 for i i feel good about these predictions so do i maybe maybe not next week or the week after but

00:57:36.180 long term yeah because i mean like i said like if you go back to the if we go back to the um you

00:57:40.800 know who is actually joining restore britain i can get the uh yeah picture up again what cohort

00:57:46.540 is it well it's the millennials and gen x's it's the key cohorts yeah who are going to be combined

00:57:53.820 uh 15 million in 10 years time yeah like we're they're the ones who are actually joining

00:58:00.080 restore britain now and so it's one of those things where it's like okay i don't think you're

00:58:04.160 going to get away from this actually it seems kind of that we're inevitable

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - April 09, 2026

The Demographic Clock Is Ticking

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