In this episode, Raphael Payot talks about the murder of a friend of his who was killed by a leftist mob after a political speech at Sciences Po, a political school in France, and the events that led up to it.
00:02:12.080And she became popular because she is a fierce and I would say vicious advocate for the Palestinian cause.
00:02:27.460She organized a political speech in Sciences Po, a political school in France.
00:02:36.420And in France, as in Britain or America or everywhere in Europe, most of universities and schools are leaning left.
00:02:54.960So, she was acclaimed by the people waiting for her to speak.
00:03:02.020And in front of the school, a few girls, there were seven women, six or seven women, came to protest with a banner saying no to islamo-leftism or something like that.
00:03:21.000And they asked for a group of guys to come, not to fight, but to deter aggression from the left.
00:05:10.420So, the people coming to pick you up when you are in dire condition came, he was, uh, he was sent to the hospital, but they tried to save him.
00:05:26.580But he suffered, uh, two, uh, grave injuries, and he was brain, uh, brain dead, uh, during, uh, the night, uh, of, uh, Thursday and, uh, Friday.
00:05:39.680And, uh, two days later, he was, uh, pronounced dead.
00:05:44.300So, yeah, that's, that's the overall of, uh, how he came to be killed by, uh, a mob of, uh, Antifa.
00:05:54.760So, so there was a speech at Sciences Po, Sciences Politique, which is one of the biggest, I think perhaps is the biggest, um, university when it comes to politics in France, isn't it?
00:06:06.720Well, it used to be the most prestigious, yeah.
00:06:10.680But of course, nowadays it is, um, it is garbage, but, uh, it used to be the most prestigious, yeah.
00:06:18.500So we have there a Palestinian giving a speech about Palestine and, uh, and, uh, other leftist, uh, issues.
00:06:28.480And as you say, there were, there were the, uh, several women there.
00:06:34.780Did they have the name Nemesis Collective?
00:06:41.280It's a right-wing feminist collective.
00:06:45.600Yes, so, uh, so, and, uh, their, their method is to do, uh, Agitprop, to go to places, to protest, always specifically, but to, uh, to try to gather attention on their message.
00:07:06.880And, uh, this time, their message was against the infiltration of universities by, uh, Islamists and, uh, leftists.
00:07:59.940Uh, and, uh, this time, uh, they tried to do so, but, uh, at first, when people tried to disturb their, their protest, they could, they couldn't do it because of the group of men here to protect them.
00:08:17.300So, they went to ask for the, uh, leftist militia, uh, the antifa militia called, uh, legend guard, the young guard, and they came, and, uh, they were prepared, and they, they thought, uh, they wanted the fight, the violence.
00:08:48.960Um, was this a banned space created by leftists, MPs who are now members of the French parliament who are now also, uh, affiliated with Melenchon's party?
00:09:23.020Before, the antifa groups were autonomous and independent.
00:09:28.260They were against party, against, uh, against, uh, syndicate, I don't know if it's the same word in English, uh, and against every kind of organized, uh, representation of the left.
00:09:43.960The young guard came and said, we are going to seek a good relationships with the institutional actors.
00:09:54.080We are going to have a spoke persons to speak on behalf of our organization.
00:10:02.060And basically what Raphael Arnaud tried to do, uh, was to, to, to give to antifascists a good peer.
00:10:15.900Then, as, uh, as, uh, in 2025, in 2024, sorry, in 2024, Raphael Arnaud, the founder of the association, association, was elected MP under the banner of La France Insoumise, the same banner under which Rima Hassan was elected at the European Parliament.
00:10:39.900Back then, it was, it was, it was the officialization of an alliance between the far left in France, the far, far left party and the far left militia.
00:10:56.340It was the officialization of their alliance.
00:11:01.380So they came there and they hit Quentin.
00:11:05.120The young guard, uh, the young guard was, uh, what is called dissolution in French.
00:11:13.280So they were, uh, dissolved by, uh, the, uh, minister of interior of, at, at the time, Bruno Retaio, which mean, uh, they are prevented by law to, uh, gather again.
00:11:30.360But, of course, uh, of course, uh, of course, uh, they don't care at all about it.
00:11:35.920Some antifascist group even bragged about the fact that they have been dissolved and keep, uh, gathering together.
00:11:44.640So they, they weren't, uh, afraid of it at all.
00:11:49.600And this group was the group who attacked Quentin, uh, the night, uh, he died.
00:12:00.380So I think it's a good example of several things.
00:12:06.820Ah, and I, I, I forgot to mention an important detail.
00:12:10.520Three of the people involved in the murder were, um, assistants of Raphael Arnaud.
00:12:19.740They were assistants of a current, currently elect French MP.
00:14:28.380But it's, uh, in France, as in UK, as in America, as in everywhere in Europe, the left, uh, deems itself, uh, worthy of, uh, getting, uh, people money for its own behalf.
00:14:45.300So, uh, it's, um, yeah, it's usual for them.
00:14:50.320Uh, the question is, why were they in Lyon on a Thursday night while the, uh, MP, uh, for, for, for whom they worked was in Paris?
00:15:08.940He was elected in Avignon, which is not near Lyon.
00:15:13.080So why were, were they in Lyon and not in Avignon or Paris?
00:15:20.760Uh, we don't know yet because, of course, the centrist, uh, the centrist are trying to, uh, um, the, the president of the French parliament is, um, is a Macron MP.
00:15:35.720Of course, she didn't make public what was the agenda of, uh, those, uh, assistants.
00:15:45.500Uh, were they expected to be in Lyon and if so, for what reason?
00:17:26.740Uh, most of his, his friends, uh, met him there.
00:17:33.120He met a lot of people at the church because he was a regular.
00:17:38.200And, uh, he was also a convinced nationalist activist.
00:17:44.740In, um, in, in, in, in, in, in French, we say militant, but, uh, apparently militant in English means more violent, uh, activism, but, uh, and in France for violent, uh, activism, we mean, uh, activism.
00:18:02.600So it's, uh, a little bit confusing for the English speaking audience.
00:18:07.180So what forms of activism was he engaged in?
00:18:13.040He wasn't engaged in violent, uh, activism.
00:18:17.420That's what I was trying to say with this little precision on vocabulary.
00:18:23.740Uh, actually, uh, the last time I talked to him, he was asking me to speak at a conference he wanted to organize.
00:18:37.380What he wanted to do was to organize conferences, to, to chat about, uh, to, to chat about political ideas, uh, to, to defend his nationalist convictions, but he was not engaged in violent activity.
00:18:53.980Of course, he was engaged in, uh, in, uh, he engaged with a group the night he died for, uh, security purposes, but it was aimed at, uh, defense and not attack.
00:19:13.420And we also know, sorry, to help you, uh, we know how the left has infiltrated universities, especially universities in France have a long history of leftist activism from within.
00:19:29.860We remember May 1968, so I really struggled to think that a few people who would go there to help the, these, uh, women who were talking about these issues would go there with particularly, uh, violent or offense or assault, uh, with the intention to assault an institution that is almost entirely, uh, governed by the left.
00:19:57.300Yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's very hard to think that they had, they had, they went there to attack people.
00:20:04.640Yeah, it's, and it's not even my opinion, the, uh, police, uh, investigation has already established they were, they weren't there to attack, but they were attacked.
00:20:18.700And they were attacked with the intent to maybe not kill, but at least hurt a lot.
00:20:28.180Uh, this, uh, morning, an information was made public.
00:20:33.640Apparently, I haven't checked yet, but apparently, the leader of the attack, uh, uh, screamed, uh, kill him.
00:20:44.700Apparently, he, he, he, he had a scream and that maybe I haven't checked it yet, but I wouldn't be surprised by it because I don't know if you have seen the video, the video on the video.
00:21:55.020Even, let, let me just say this as someone who just listens to it, but also having checked the video, is that hits on the head are incredibly, much more dangerous than hits on the belly, for instance.
00:22:08.560Because even if, uh, they don't leave someone dead on the spot, in some cases, and you mentioned this as an example of such a case, there are so many dangers with it.
00:22:21.800For instance, paralysis or severe concussion.
00:22:26.100There are so many dangers with it that could be, that, that, uh, me, that imply that it is a crime in and of itself.
00:22:35.700Even if the person whose head is kicked doesn't die because of it, that doesn't mean that the damage done to them isn't severe.
00:22:47.920But the Observatoire des Violences Politiques, so Observatory of Political Violence, made an article shortly after the death of Quentin, compiling every instance, every instance of Antifa beating people on the head, on the ground and in the head, in the head, before Quentin died.
00:23:15.420Actually, uh, uh, uh, uh, 10, 20, uh, 20, uh, guys could have been murdered before Quentin.
00:23:25.760Because it's a common, a common method of attack from the left.
00:23:34.480He was the first to die, but before him, some of them were injured, uh, permanently injured.
00:23:42.680And a lot were attacked before him. It was just the first to die. But they are doing it regularly. It's really important to understand. It's not just something that happened and it's just bad luck.
00:24:00.680No. In France, Antifa have a telegram channel. I don't know the name in English. They have a group on which they share the video they make of the people they attack. That's how unafraid they are from justice.
00:24:28.680And on the video, we can see them calling a penalty the fact of eating people on the head. They call it a séance de penalty. A penalty. I don't know the soccer vocabulary, but a penalty shoot.
00:24:52.680Like a punishment or something. Yeah. So it's in their culture. It's in their culture. It's advocated for.
00:25:02.680So he was a nonviolent Catholic and French nationalist. And what sort of ideas did he have about France? Do you want to share or not?
00:25:16.680Well, he was a right wing, of course. So opposed to immigration, opposed to the economic destruction of the country. He was for a return to faith against the Islamization of the country.
00:25:45.680I mean, I mean, I mean, what he has is pretty standard right wing ideas, standard nationalist ideas. In France, nationalists historically were often Catholics because it was the historical religion of France.
00:26:07.680In France, nationalists did use violence. But it's important to understand they weren't the ones starting it.
00:26:26.680In France, 1789, 1789 was the French Revolution, which became a symbolic event for every leftist across the world. The time we made the revolution. Then a few years later, it became what we call la terror, the terror.
00:26:52.080Yeah. The reign of terror. The reign of terror, during which revolutionaries killed thousands of people for political reasons.
00:27:11.080So when nationalists respond to violence, it doesn't mean the same. But of course, leftists, in their sick perversion, have inversed the argument and claimed we are defending ourselves.
00:27:35.080They are claiming a defense after murdering Quentin.
00:27:41.080So it's the same extremist tactic that saying that, well, that they are in a situation of emergency. Unless they use violence, they are going to be killed. So they are justifying violence in the name of self-defense.
00:27:59.220And we know the tendency that the leftist. And what they constantly understand as constituting a threat to them, a physical threat, could take forms that don't just mention imminent physical threat.
00:28:19.460That it's just frequently disagreement with them.
00:28:27.460Right. So I want us to talk about the reaction, because this is a very significant event, a very sad one, but also a significant event.
00:28:38.460And it's not one of those things that you read and then you just turn the page and you forget it five minutes afterwards.
00:28:47.460It's something that I'm sure that the French people are talking about and are being concerned with.
00:28:54.460So I want us to talk about the reactions that several people have.
00:28:58.460The French people, the media, the state, other parties. I want us to take them each at a time. And I want to ask you, for instance, how do the French people talk about this right now?
00:29:11.460Okay. So the French people, of course, normal people are shocked by what happened.
00:29:23.460Because the video was released on the news of the chain TF1 at 8 p.m.
00:29:35.460The news of 8 p.m. are widely watched in France. So they discovered the event and they were shocked by it.
00:29:50.460I went to the walk in memory of Quentin in Lyon this weekend. It was full of normal, ordinary people. You had men, women, old, young. Of course, you had also right-wing activists.
00:30:17.460But also a lot, a lot of normal people. I even saw some guy, he didn't know Quentin, but he came here and he prayed. He prayed for him. Just normal people. A lot of faithful people too. But also a lot of non-religious people.
00:30:44.460What I wanted to ask you about this is that I think that usually everyday people, people who are that invested into politics or other disciplines necessarily, just people who go about their own lives, they tend to have human reactions.
00:31:03.460But it's ideologues who very frequently silence these human reactions if they do have them and they're not psychopaths for ideological reasons. Ideologues are very frequently to see this as, for instance, an event, especially leftists in this case, that was merited.
00:31:24.580So their ideology is leading them to watch an event like this and be probably positively inclined.
00:31:34.580So how many would you say people are inclined to view it in a leftist ideological fashion?
00:31:44.580Because from someone who isn't French, to whatever degree I read about French politics, it seems to me that there is a very strong leftist culture in France.
00:31:57.580And there is very frequently, there are very frequently violent manifestations of that culture. So would you say that this is the majority of the French or not?
00:32:10.580Well, I agree with you. I think France has the most far left left in Europe.
00:32:19.580I think we have the left, the more inclined to violence.
00:32:27.580So of course it has some influence about the reaction to the murder.
00:39:51.580Because in France, the national rally is the first political party.
00:39:57.580And it is currently the first party at the parliament, but with not enough MPs to have the majority.
00:40:11.580So, they need to attack the right by smearing it, by calling it a far right, because something which is important to precise.
00:40:25.580Mathilde Panot is an LFI representative.
00:40:30.580She claimed publicly on the media, if Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella wins the presidential election, they won't accept the results and they will take the streets.
00:42:51.580So, I have a question for you here because I've been doing some research about the topic.
00:42:57.580And I was searching about the numbers of victims from particular sites for the last 25 years.
00:43:06.580And the results were showing that the overwhelming majority of victims come from attacks by Islamists, something like 330 in the last 25 years.
00:43:20.580And then it said that when it comes to right-wing extremism and left-wing extremism, they suggest that more people have died from right-wing extremism.
00:43:33.580So, I want to ask you what you make of this, whether you think it's wrong or whether you think that there is any data manipulation.
00:43:42.580Because the reason why I'm asking you is because I know very well about how the media establishment and governments are reacting to particular murders and tragic incidents.
00:43:57.580So, the question is, when these incidents take place, there does tend to be a rise in the very violent rhetoric from both sides.
00:44:10.580And in some respects, both extremes are feeding off each other because they are trying to maintain a kind of rhetoric that is essentially saying war is imminent.
00:44:27.580So, we are both in a situation of emergency.
00:44:30.580So, unless we strike first, we're going to be the victim.
00:44:33.580And the question is, is this something, are these indications correct?
00:44:42.580Or do you think that data has been manipulated?
00:44:46.580Because the question here is, and that's what I want to get at, is, is the establishment doing this because they're running cover for the left?
00:44:53.580Or is the establishment doing it because they are saying that they want to keep the temperature down and they know that violence has come from both sides and this is one of the ways that they're using it?
00:45:17.580In the study, what they call victims of far-right violence are just victims of just common altercation.
00:45:31.580It happens outside of politics, people fighting and killing each other.
00:45:38.580But if the attacker was engaged, or not engaged, but affiliated in some way to the right, then they count it as political violence from the right.
00:45:52.580It is false because sometimes it is just some guys killing each other after a bar fight.
00:45:59.580It's not political in nature, but they are counting it.
00:46:03.580Then on the left, they are of course not counting that, but also they are discarding a proven political murder from the left.
00:46:16.580And right-wing French journalists have already made the investigation about that and they already found some political murders from the left, occulted from the data.
00:46:35.580Also there, the date of the beginning of the study, the study starts at the exact time the violent action of a far-left group stopped.
00:46:50.580Of course, because if they started earlier, there would have been even more left-wing political murder to deny.
00:47:01.580So everything in this study is biased, plain and simple.
00:47:08.580The overwhelming majority of murders is from the left, of aggression is from the left.
00:47:18.580And it leads me to the second thing I have to answer to you.
00:49:24.580So, bearing that period in mind, why would establishment politicians allow the far-left to grow?
00:49:35.580Because the question is, the French Revolution, I think, correct me if you think I'm wrong, but it seems to me that one of the main problems with it that led to the violence was that it was much more anti-Louis XVI than it was pro-something.
00:49:53.580And then they tried to figure out what to make, you know, as it was going on, and then war started on several fronts.
00:50:02.580And then they had to go instantly on a more crazily authoritarian and paranoid view.
00:50:08.580The question is, bearing that chapter of history in mind, which is one of the most famous chapters in history, why do establishmentarian voices want to allow that thing to grow?
00:50:23.580Because you could say they are very much vigilant against both of the extremes, but it looks like they are much more vigilant against right-wingers than against left-wing extremism.
00:50:42.580As a French man, you imagine that I have already spent a lot of time thinking about that, because it's a really difficult question.
00:50:57.580The French Revolution is a revolution that succeeded.
00:51:03.580Since it succeeded, it was able to write its own history.
00:51:11.580Of course, a fake history, but it doesn't matter in the sense, even if it's fake, it has been taught and it has some influence on French politics.
00:51:23.580I think it's a pretty simple phenomenon to understand.
00:51:30.580In a psychological, in criminal psychology, criminal psychology, we notice that some violence and people resist a lot of violence and they freeze.
00:51:47.580They are not able to do anything because they are so traumatized by the level, the amount of violence they have to suffer.
00:51:58.580I think the French Revolution is something like that.
00:52:03.580It was such a large amount of political violence in a short span of time.
00:52:10.580It left a deep traumatic memory in the French political philosophy.
00:52:17.580That's why it's something like, if we don't give them what they want, they will do violence again.
00:52:30.580The same kind of reasoning that a beaten child is having, because he is dependent from his parents, but he is beaten by them.
00:52:42.580So, he tries to adapt himself to the whim of his parents, to make sure that violence won't happen again.
00:52:52.580I think it's really the same thing in French politics, but at a way larger scale.
00:53:00.580We are philosophically afraid to criticize left-wing political philosophy because of the sheer amount of violence.
00:53:12.580And Dan Edelstein, an American historian and philosopher, I don't know if he's an historian or philosopher, but it doesn't matter.
00:53:24.580He wrote a very great book on the idea of revolution.
00:53:29.580And he makes a comparison between the American Revolution and the French Revolution, based on the writings of the people doing the revolution.
00:53:44.580The Americans were claiming it is a necessary evil.
00:53:50.580They had a classical conception of revolution.
00:53:54.580Sometimes it happens, but it is a tragedy.
00:54:00.580We should do everything we can to prevent it.
00:54:03.580Because when it happens, it is father against a son, neighbors against a neighbors.
00:54:13.580They had a classic tragic view of the idea of revolution.
00:54:18.580But the French revolutionary had another vision.
00:54:23.580They had a vision of the revolution, not as a tragic event concluding a failed political history, but as a solution and as a way toward progress.
00:54:42.580Was it like viewing violence in one case as necessary evil and in the other case as a sort of purificatory good?
00:55:05.580But there's also the other bit because that's ideological and there are also some other real life circumstances.
00:55:14.580It's just that after the American Revolution, for some time there wasn't the kind of war that was waged on France by other European monarchies at the time.
00:55:26.580Which when you are in war, let's say the revolution takes place, it succeeds.
00:55:31.580And then if you instantly have to go to war mode, you have to rally yourself against the, you know, in a sense, a war leader.
00:55:42.580Well, before Napoleon took over, a lot of killings had already happened.
00:55:51.580So I can see your argument, but chronologically, it doesn't fit.
00:55:56.580No, but weren't the people before Napoleon, like Robespierre, like Danton, like others, weren't they in a sense saying that we are in war with the Spanish Habsburgs, with the Holy Roman Empire, with the Austrians, Austrian Habsburgs?
00:56:16.580Weren't they saying that we are at war and weren't they using that as a justification for saying that many of their political enemies were conspiring against the revolution with the enemy?
00:56:38.580And if I was talking about Dan Edelstein, it's because there are deep philosophical roots to this leftist paranoia.
00:56:48.580And also the violence created a kind of taboo around leftist ideas.
00:57:01.580Because if we talk about them, if we criticize those ideas, then they will start being violent again.
00:57:12.580So it's both the violent philosophy, the paranoia, and the violence which prevented the philosophical critique of leftism in France for a long time.
00:57:25.580I want to ask you one last thing, and then we go a bit more back to current affairs.
00:57:30.580But to what extent do you think that this kind of perspective on violence in France, in the French Revolution, and in French political culture also has been affected by the French wars of religion in the latter half of the 16th century?
00:57:55.580Because it's one thing, just, okay, yeah, that's the question.
00:58:01.580Well, if you take the idea of the French philosopher Jean-Claude Michard, he claims that liberalism was born from the war of religions, the religious wars.
00:58:20.580He also claims that liberalism, because of its moral relativism, needs to rely on the market to select between opposing moral propositions.
00:58:41.580So he's arguing for a philosophical, a philosophical, a philosophical tie between philosophical liberalism and economic liberalism.
00:58:55.580That's why the left and the center are always, are always together against nationalists, because they advocate for the same liberal idea.
00:59:08.580What I should say is, this liberal idea is very peculiar to France.
00:59:19.580In my opinion, France has the worst liberals possible, because they didn't take the best ideas of liberalism, but they take all the worst, and they have fanatical revolutionary ideas.
00:59:42.580So, yeah, it came from the religious war, in the sense that the liberalism it gave birth to was very crazy.
01:00:03.580But maybe that's something we could talk another time on a more philosophical ground, because I think there's a lot to say for and against liberalism, and a lot to precise on the difference between French liberalism, which is the birth of leftism,
01:00:31.580and liberalism and liberalism as an English tradition based on some...
01:00:42.580I want us to move back now to French politics, and I want to talk a bit, generally speaking, what does the future hold for France?
01:00:50.580So, what do you think is going to happen in the next two, three years?
01:00:57.580Because it seems to me that the French left that I see and read about is hell-bent on destroying and dissolving the French identity.
01:01:11.580And they seem to hate it with a passion. It's typical leftism, but also there may be an augmented factor into it due to the legacy of French leftism.
01:01:24.580But what do you think is going to happen in the next elections and in the next five years?
01:01:30.580Well, in a few, in a few weeks, we have the local elections. So, it will be a first, a first test for the left. I think it is difficult to anticipate. I think in some places, voters don't care, because either they are not French or they are so ideologically possessed that they would not care.
01:01:57.580ideologically possessed that they would vote left no matter what. In some other places, maybe the killing will be a big handicap for them.
01:02:10.580What we are hoping for is a right-wing victory. If it happens, it will be a first for the national rally.
01:02:22.580Because historically, this party has been very weak on local elections.
01:02:29.580So, there's that. Of course, violence will keep happening.
01:02:37.580But then, next year, we have the presidential election.
01:02:44.580In my opinion, more people are going to die until the presidential election.
01:02:53.580So, you think violence is going to get worse? It's going to escalate?
01:02:56.580Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It will. Of course it will.
01:03:00.580But, they just have killed someone, and they are defending the murderer, and they are advocating for more.
01:03:08.580What do you think is going to happen? It's not difficult. We just have to listen to them and to believe them.
01:03:16.580So, there's always this element of the very, you know, crazily violent and low impulse control people who will just go out and say it on social media.
01:03:31.580Well, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is claiming his affection for the young guard.
01:03:41.580What do you need more? Mathilde Panot went on television, and she said, if the national rally wins, we won't excel the result.
01:03:54.580We will take the streets. But he says, he expresses his support for that, but wasn't that organization dissolved?
01:04:02.580You mean for the new association that was created by the same people?
01:04:07.580No, no, no. They don't care. He expresses his affection for Raphael Arnault, for the young guard, for the Antifa, for everyone.
01:04:17.580The generation anti-fascist and the young guard, it's the same thing, basically.
01:04:23.580It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter to which one he expresses affection. There's no difference.
01:04:29.580He expresses affection to the people having murdered Kanton. It's as easy, as simple as that.
01:04:38.580So, of course, under those conditions, violence will keep happening. It's obvious.
01:04:45.580So, how could the right-wing victory happen, take place?
01:04:51.580What's the most realistic scenario that would lead to a right-wing victory?
01:04:58.580First of all, we have to make sure they can't fraud the election.
01:05:03.580It's not easy because the French electoral system is more solid than other electoral systems.
01:05:12.580But Macron worked to weaken it. He worked to weaken a lot of things. So why not the electoral system?
01:05:22.580Then, in the ballot box, it will certainly be a victory. Certainly be a victory. The current sondage, what is the English word? The thing on which Reform UK is pretty high.
01:05:50.580Yes. It's called the polls. The polls. Thank you. On the polls, the national rally is very, is leading the race with a big margin.
01:06:07.580It is over 30%. And the second, the second is under 20. Yeah. So there's a really big gap.
01:06:20.580So, where is Mélenchon's party and does it take, is support for it decreasing across the years or is it increasing?
01:06:31.580So far, the party of Mélenchon's party is not in second place. But it doesn't mean anything because the left has an history of what we call vote utile. So when you vote for the closest candidate to your side, which you think can win.
01:06:58.580They vote and last election, they voted for Mélenchon because he was the only left-wing candidate in position to eventually win. So the other left-wing candidates fell harshly.
01:07:17.580So right now, Mélenchon is not very high. But we have seen it before. People right now don't want to vote for him. And in a year from now, during the political campaign, they will be afraid to lose against the right.
01:07:36.580And they will go vote for Mélenchon. So he will keep rising in the polls. In my opinion, I think there's a high probability he gets to the second round of the French election.
01:07:53.580Because the centre is very weak. And I don't see it getting better because they are doing an horrendous politics, akin to Starmer in the UK. It's very horrendous.
01:08:14.580So I think Mélenchon really has an opportunity on the second round to get to the second round. But there, everyone will vote against him.
01:08:28.580So the worst case scenario from the right would be the national rally on the second round against a candidate from the centre.
01:08:44.580And there, everyone voting for the centre against the national rally. That would be the worst case scenario. It is possible. Personally, I don't think it will happen.
01:09:00.820Okay, because you think the centre is so weak at the moment that it has to be national rally against a leftist.
01:09:07.840Yeah, and Jordan Bardella is making his campaign because Marine Le Pen has been made ineligible by the French judiciary system, which is a scandal that you have covered on Lotus Eaters back then.
01:09:21.840So it will probably be Jordan Bardella. Jordan Bardella is doing campaign on the centre right.
01:09:28.840Also, he has managed to get himself an image of the liberal wing of the national rally, which is always good for the centre right electorate because they are very touchy on the fiscality.
01:09:50.840So I don't think there's a part of the centre right that could go voting for the national rally. Also in France, Marine Le Pen and the national rally is not alone.
01:10:17.080There's Eric Ciutti, who was the former president of the centre right party in France, who joined Marine Le Pen in 2024.
01:10:31.080There's also Mario Maréchal, the niece of Marine Le Pen, who created a small right-wing party in alliance with the national rally.
01:10:46.080So there is some central rally, which is a pretty good argument for them. That's why I don't see every centrist voting for the central candidate. Some of them will vote for the national rally just because they are sick of the mayhem, the chaos.
01:11:14.080And Jordan Bardella tries to lure them by painting himself as an economically serious candidate against those socialist policies.
01:11:33.080Right. Rafael, thank you very much for this interview. I really think it was good. And before we end, I would like you again to tell people where they can find your work. And we're definitely going to discuss things another time.
01:11:53.080Yeah. The more philosophical we said before. So where can people find you?
01:11:57.080People can find me on my ex-account Raph Payot. They can find me on a sub-stack rafaelpayot.substack.com.
01:12:07.080They can find my YouTube channel in French called Panache. And soon I will be translating my own writings. And I've already created a sub-stack for that. But it's not published yet. So if you follow me on ex, I will announce it soon when it will be done.
01:12:32.080And I would like last word to my friend because Quentin was a good man, a man of faith, a man willing to help others and devoted Catholics.
01:12:47.080He was loved by his parents and his sisters. He was loved by his friends. And he was the least deserving person to die in those horrendous circumstances.
01:13:02.080Also he is the best martyr the right could have opted for. So I'm pretty proud of the fact his friends decided to speak on his behalf and to not let the left defame him.
01:13:27.080And I thank you again for the opportunity to speak on his behalf because he can't do it anymore. And it was a pretty, pretty difficult news to learn about his death. So thank you again.