The Gorton and Denton Showdown
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 1 minute
Words per Minute
190.62323
Summary
In the wake of the Gorton and Denton by-election, the fallout from today's PMQs, where Keir Starmer was grilled by Ed Davey, and the revelation that he knew about Jeffrey Epstein, the Labour leader's relationship with the disgraced billionaire, Lord Mandelson, there's a whole lot to cover in this one.
Transcript
00:00:00.000
Hi folks, welcome back to another one of our political chats, and it has been an exciting week in British politics, which is not something you can normally say, but man, a lot's gone on.
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So we're going to talk about the showdown in Gorton and Denton, the by-election that has been called there because of the resignation of the Labour MP there, and everything that's going on that you need to know.
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But this is coming in the shadow of today's PMQs, where Keir Starmer got absolutely raked over the coals in front of the entire country by not just Kenny Beidnock, but what's the Lib Dem Pratt?
00:00:35.620
Oh, Ed Davey. Well, he had a weird angle on it.
00:00:37.680
He had a strange angle, but the point is, a lot of stuff started coming out, and Keir Starmer basically fumbled every answer.
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Superb. And so, it may well be that, essentially, by tomorrow, a lot has changed very, very quickly.
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And so, you'll get this, hopefully, the same day that we're recording it, but by tomorrow, whatever is happening with that will overshadow a lot of what we're talking here.
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Now, it's not that it'll render it invalid, because, essentially, all of the dyes are cast now, right?
00:01:10.900
So, all of the people who will be candidates in Gawthorne and Denton are candidates, but the nature of the polling might change very rapidly.
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That's true, but also, all of these other chats we've done against a backdrop of Keir Starmer probably can't be forced out.
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He's probably going to run until the next election, and there's going to be this slow bleed effect within the mainstream parties.
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Yeah, and now, it suddenly looks like, I mean, Starmer's position is really tenuous, because, basically, he had to stand up in the House of Cummins and say,
00:01:42.900
I knew that Jeffrey Epstein was a dodgy paedophile, well, as opposed to any other kind, but, yeah, he was a dodgy paedophile intelligence operative.
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I knew that, and I knew that Mandelson was working with him.
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I knew that Mandelson was buddies with him and stayed at his townhouses, even after he was let out of jail for being convicted people.
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And then, after that, I appointed him as ambassador to the U.S.
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But it gets a bit deeper, as well, because he knew that Mandelson was the mentor of Morgan McSweeney.
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And he called Morgan McSweeney, quote, essential to his Labour government, and, therefore, you've got really big questions.
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It's like, well, okay, I mean, he let, for example, in the last cabinet reshuffle, Mandelson be the person who oversaw that.
00:02:42.160
But, basically, it kind of looks like Epstein's controlling the Labour Party and controlling Kistama's government.
00:02:47.660
And so, it's just like, okay, well, so the point is, in British policy, normally things happen glacially, but then things happen all at once.
00:02:56.260
And things are currently happening all at once.
00:02:57.940
And that will affect the nature of the Gordon and Denton by-election.
00:03:02.640
Because I think what it's essentially going to do is knock Labour out, right?
00:03:06.400
I think that if things go as I'm actually expecting them to go, the Labour vote will just continue to collapse.
00:03:12.340
Well, the standard narrative is, is that, basically, Labour have got until next, well, the coming Mays, by-elections.
00:03:19.160
But if this one is devastating enough, local elections.
00:03:22.660
Yeah, but if this one is devastating enough, then, you know, the Labour-backbenchers might well decide we're not waiting until even May, let alone the next election.
00:03:32.540
Like I said, who knows where the chips are going to fall.
00:03:35.300
We will cover it in more detail when we have more information, but just be aware, some of these things could change.
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Although, I think, actually, the essential nature of what's happening here isn't going to change.
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So, this, as you can see, is a constituency in Manchester.
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That is a bit of a gerrymandered-looking shape, isn't it?
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But I think that what we can do is have a look at it from the ethnic perspective.
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There's Hyde and there's Inner Manchester, right?
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You've got the sort of border areas that are getting a bit weaker.
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But even then, there's still a fair number of English people in these areas,
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And roughly, we'll just summarize, you know, non-English.
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So, actually, it's kind of a good representation of the country at large right now.
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you get, like, the Hindu cluster and the Jewish cluster.
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As we've spoken about before, even the minorities self-segregate from one another.
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It's a Muslim area on the left-hand side towards the inner of Manchester.
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And like everywhere else, the migrants are in the town censors.
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And the English go out to the countryside surrounding the town and the city.
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And that's what's happened in Gorton and Denton, as you can see.
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So, the Christian and Nun are the English population.
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Because, of course, a large number of us are atheists now.
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And then, as you said, there's a couple of thousand non-English, non-Muslim people.
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But they're not really going to be swinging the vote, either way.
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Like I said, this really comes down to the question of baseness versus Islam.
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This is actually a good representation of what's happening in the country.
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So, the background on Gorton and Denton, people have been...
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People, local people, have been putting out saying,
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well, look, it's kind of a classic thing where it was historically separate,
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but because of the sprawl of the growth throughout the 20th century,
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Gorton being the Muslim area is younger, denser, far more ethnically diverse.
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Denton is settled, older and retains a strong town identity,
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closer in character to places like Hyder Ashton.
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This is, essentially, what is going to be the way that British politics are
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But the future of British politics, I think, is actually being played out by this.
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And so, it's just a really interesting thing to have pop up, actually.
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And then, so we can look at the seat details in more detail.
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And you see, the turnout is terrible, as the turnout is everywhere.
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The last, in 2024, not even half of people turned out for this.
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So, the fact that Labour got 50% of that vote share means they could quite easily have been
00:07:31.940
overthrown if just the other half had turned out.
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I mean, and by-elections have much higher turnout as well, because it gets the attention.
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If you will not be able to walk down the high street without having somebody in a rosette
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All of the party leaders are in Gorton and Denton.
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They're going to have volunteers for all the political parties coming from all over the
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So, the turnout is going to be sort of 70, 80%, as it typically is for a by-election.
00:08:03.900
And so, these numbers, I mean, as you can see, yeah.
00:08:07.460
If you look at it, Labour got about 23% of the vote.
00:08:16.220
But of all those who could have potentially voted, that's just under a quarter of the
00:08:22.220
So, there is a huge disenfranchised constituency in Gorton and Denton that, of course, all of
00:08:28.120
the parties are going to be like, right, OK, we want these guys coming out and voting for
00:08:31.140
But also, look how unbedded that Labour vote is.
00:08:33.520
Because in the previous election, so that would have been the Boris one, when Boris kind
00:08:38.840
of broke the red wall, as they call it, which is, this is going to be one of.
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This was the one where Kirsten won, after Rishi.
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I think this is one of those ones that's always been Labour.
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But as you can see, they're losing more than half of what they had in 2024 in the predicted
00:09:08.880
So, the standard shattering effect that we've been talking about, where the Labour Party is
00:09:13.340
getting cracked, and then the shards are just going to reform, and the Green Party, and
00:09:19.180
But mostly, they're the prime beneficiaries, as you can see.
00:09:22.460
And this gives reform a 61% chance of winning, according to their...
00:09:25.620
I mean, that said, again, it's not that strong.
00:09:29.520
Because if we were to accept the notion, I know we've argued against this in previous
00:09:33.720
If we were to accept the notion that the Conservative plus reform is the right-wing vote, it's like
00:09:38.960
41%, whereas the left-wing vote, and let's take that as Labour and the Green Party, I mean,
00:09:57.700
And the thing is, I don't know which constituencies are the ones turning out in the areas, right?
00:10:03.380
So it could be that actually most of the English people in this constituency just don't turn
00:10:09.920
out to vote because they're disillusioned with politics.
00:10:12.240
And so if that remaining 50% is like 40% Native English, 10% Muslim, well, then that would
00:10:18.780
actually make this a very deeply conservative seat.
00:10:24.080
And so I don't know if that's the case, by the way, just to be clear.
00:10:28.260
But the Muslim communities tend to be very politically active, and because of the sort
00:10:32.520
of tight networks in them, they get out and they get their guys and they make them vote
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And the big advantage they've got is they're more likely to act in a coordinated fashion.
00:10:43.580
And so the entire community tends to have a good turnout generally in areas where they
00:10:47.840
know they're going to be able to get something out of it.
00:10:49.600
But I would imagine both Labour and the Greens are spending a lot of time sitting down with
00:10:53.200
community leaders and saying, here's the deal that we're going to do for you.
00:10:58.580
And then that vote will move largely as a block because it would be disseminated down through
00:11:05.460
But nobody is sitting down with any English community leaders because there aren't any.
00:11:08.820
Well, if you set yourself up as a Native community leader, you get arrested.
00:11:14.560
I mean, you would literally be called Tommy Robinson and you'd be persecuted by the state.
00:11:19.100
So the point being is there are a huge number of votes that are unaccounted here, unaccounted
00:11:24.820
for, and I suspect they're probably in the English community.
00:11:28.640
So if you had a revolutionary message, say, look, guys, we're going to just smash this.
00:11:33.860
We're going to turn this constituency conservative.
00:11:36.160
This is going to be a nativist concern constituency.
00:11:38.380
Who knows, you might be able to rally a lot of those people who otherwise, I think, probably
00:11:44.720
But anyway, the issue here, as you said, there's everything to play for, right?
00:11:48.600
Now, this is a really interesting thing because the left is more than happy to tactically vote.
00:11:55.680
You can, as we've spoken about, you can see the percentages of who is in what class bracket.
00:12:01.920
And the conservatives and reform, as we now know, basically represent the working classes of Britain.
00:12:09.840
And the Greens, Lib Dems, the Lib Dems represent affluent white people.
00:12:14.500
The Greens represent the immigrant bloc and the lefty student bloc.
00:12:19.460
And the Labour Party will also represent like an upper middle class vote that is rapidly dwindling.
00:12:25.000
So the conservatives actually are the ones who may well be playing kingmaker here.
00:12:31.920
They actually seem to be kind of irresponsibly splitting the vote.
00:12:35.340
Because that 9% would be a lot better with reform.
00:12:42.020
And so that 9% is irresponsibly taking away from reform's right-wing vote.
00:12:46.580
Yeah, I mean, I don't think Kemi Bainlock would be able to see it in that light,
00:12:49.600
given that she's being embarrassed by so many Tories, you know, flocking away.
00:12:55.480
But yeah, from the Tory voter point of view, yes, it would be irresponsible to vote Tory.
00:13:04.040
We've got a ward-by-ward breakdown, which I think really exemplifies the point we're on here.
00:13:10.280
So for each ward that's in the constituency, obviously all Labour,
00:13:16.980
And it's roughly a two-thirds versus one-third split.
00:13:23.060
So you can see precisely this is, I think, genuinely going to be reflective of the next paradigm in politics.
00:13:30.220
Now, it won't necessarily be the Greens in each area, but what I think is going to happen is that the left votes will essentially choose a series of regional parties.
00:13:40.340
Like, in Wales, it will be played Cymru, we'll get on to this in a little bit, but it'll be played Cymru.
00:13:54.120
Because they all basically agree on everything.
00:13:55.640
But they'll just look at the demographics of the constituency, and they'll say, right, okay, if you're left, vote for Lib Dems.
00:14:07.180
And I think their voters will, like with Kerfili, as I was going to cover later, but we'll cover it now,
00:14:12.420
as with Kerfili in the by-election here, as you can see, they basically just jumped straight to played.
00:14:19.600
Obviously, Wales, deeply Labour area, and had been wherever, but Labour are massively unpopular in Wales now,
00:14:26.940
because a lot of Labour's vote has gone to reform, and so, bam, they went straight to played.
00:14:31.380
I mean, that is interesting about left-wing voters that they're willing to do that.
00:14:36.400
Well, it just tells you everything you need to know about the left-wing parties.
00:14:45.440
More immigrants, more woke, more government spending.
00:14:57.020
And at the moment, what they're against is Nigel Farage, and it's as simple as that.
00:15:08.100
And the Conservatives, to be fair, when it comes to actual policy.
00:15:17.300
They're all for woke stuff, trans and kids, all that sort of stuff.
00:15:22.760
So if you're a left-wing voter, okay, you're not questioning the substance of what it is they are offering.
00:15:31.560
What the question is is the degree to which they are offering it, right?
00:15:35.260
So you're like, okay, I'm a more realistic Labour voter.
00:15:45.220
But I think Ed Miliband will get a lot of that.
00:15:49.960
Zach Polanski just won't get anywhere, you know, because he's a dreamer.
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It's not that you don't want those same things.
00:15:59.100
And so this makes left-wing tactical voting very, very plausible because they look at the landscape and say,
00:16:06.000
all right, Labour are down to 12%, but Plaid are at 38%.
00:16:09.600
Yeah, I'm just going to have to vote for Plaid.
00:16:14.420
It's like, okay, I mean, you're delusional, but that is genuinely how they think.
00:16:19.140
I mean, a quick sidebar on the left's history with tactical voting.
00:16:24.400
One of the, I mean, in 1997, Tony Blair had a huge landslide win.
00:16:28.100
The only reason it wasn't bigger is because all of the left-wing papers were running this campaign to get rid of the Tories.
00:16:34.700
And what they showed is in every constituency whether you should vote Lib Dem or Labour.
00:16:41.440
It actually limited, if that advice had not been put out, Labour's win would have been far bigger than even the historic landslide that Tony Blair got.
00:17:01.520
The right essentially votes through loyalty and a sort of more grounded personal interest.
00:17:11.920
Which is why someone like Robert Jemrich could win his seat in Newark against reform as a conservative while Nigel Farage was storming the polls.
00:17:19.940
I mean, he's defected now, of course, so who knows what happens.
00:17:22.580
But the point is, there's more sort of stickiness on the right when it comes to their vote.
00:17:30.940
This is what makes the conservative 9% there such a slap in the face because it's entirely possible that about 10% of whatever the remaining vote of the Greens or the Labour Party...
00:17:47.880
But I think that this stuff with Mandelson and the current collapse that Labour are suffering, I don't think they're going to get the 22% that predicted that.
00:17:56.520
No, but it could easily help the Greens enough.
00:17:59.400
Enough people abandon Labour that go to the Greens.
00:18:04.800
It's quite conceivable that 10% of Labour's votes go straight to the Greens.
00:18:08.960
And not just because of the Mandelson stuff, but that will just grease the slide.
00:18:14.020
It's like, yeah, no, I was annoyed with Keir Starmer's Labour Party anyway.
00:18:18.880
And it looks like the Greens are going to be the party that can win for the left.
00:18:23.360
And so the Conservatives basically will end up scuppering reform in the same way that reform scuppered the Conservatives in the last general.
00:18:32.440
And so it's like, right, Conservatives, you have to really start thinking about this in a tactical way, unless you want to hand the Greens a seat.
00:18:40.980
And just to be clear, like, the Labour Party are kind of bonkers, right?
00:18:47.560
They've decided to run a foreign woman, but she's not a Muslim.
00:19:01.800
I have walked the streets of this constituency.
00:19:13.280
Are they trying to say, well, are they trying to say to the native half, look, we've got somebody who isn't a Muslim, who looks, you know, well.
00:19:23.440
And while also saying to the Muslim third, we've picked a foreigner.
00:19:32.480
They would have, at this level of politics or something like this, they would have sat in a room and discussed this for hours.
00:19:42.400
And there are wider photos where it's basically all just middle class women who are surrounding her as well.
00:19:50.220
And so this feels very much like a kind of collective decision that was made in a very managerial style about someone who has paper qualifications.
00:20:00.120
As in, you know, this person is like a councillor here or something like this.
00:20:03.760
And they have been for five years, ever since they moved here from Greece.
00:20:07.380
Is she a first-generation immigrant as well, then?
00:20:16.700
It's like, but who the hell does she represent in this constituency?
00:20:24.560
But that's, you know, you can't serve two masters.
00:20:27.500
You should have either chosen a Muslim or an English woman.
00:20:33.820
And, of course, the defeated male is still here for some reason.
00:20:38.080
Andy Burnham is out giving her his full backing.
00:20:40.400
It's like, that is a cucking that is quite phenomenal, really.
00:20:43.740
Because only a week ago, Starmer was being, you know,
00:20:49.800
We've executed Andy Burnham's political career.
00:20:53.080
And now Starmer's currently getting it right up the arse about Mandelson.
00:20:57.200
And it's just like, okay, why haven't you left, Andy?
00:21:02.860
And it's like, but Starmer's ruining your party.
00:21:05.700
I suppose the trouble for Labour MPs is they don't have anywhere to go.
00:21:09.360
I mean, I suppose they could go to the Greens, but it's so mental.
00:21:19.180
But anyway, the point being, I think Labour, obviously, we talked about this previously.
00:21:24.340
Andy Burnham was the only logical choice for Labour.
00:21:26.740
Of course, he represented a present threat to Starmer, which, I mean, it might be irrelevant
00:21:31.960
now, because honestly, I do think this thing is going to kill Starmer off politically.
00:21:37.860
And now, so he's just there, like, defeated male supporting his own replacement, who happens
00:21:43.640
to be a foreign woman, ironically, who I think has just got no chance whatsoever.
00:21:49.240
I mean, by the way, if you're a left-wing man, you're going to have to get used to this
00:21:51.760
being, like, because that is what your ideology leads to.
00:22:02.560
So, Zach Polanski has said, quote, Gorton and Denton by-election is a battle for the
00:22:15.420
Are we going to be a minoritarian country that's run by minorities for minorities?
00:22:20.140
Or are we going to be a nativist country that is run by minorities for the natives?
00:22:25.860
Because it's the Greens and the Reform Party that are basically on the table here.
00:22:30.180
What does it mean by community power versus billionaire backers?
00:22:37.580
Well, the only billionaire that I can think of is the one connected to the Labour Party,
00:22:47.000
So, anyway, they were like, right, OK, we're going to get our community
00:22:57.280
Are you going to be shocked to hear that she's not a plumber?
00:22:59.860
I was going to say, if a plumber turned up and it was Hannah Spencer, I'd be like,
00:23:04.900
yeah, but I kind of want the job done properly, love.
00:23:08.020
I mean, every plumber I've ever seen has been fairly burly because there's a lot of physical
00:23:12.640
And, you know, she seems like a lovely girl, but she's not very burly.
00:23:15.960
I'm sure she'd make a great school teacher or something.
00:23:19.100
So, she's a counsellor, a plumber, a greyhound lover, a Green Party candidate with Gordon
00:23:27.080
Well, a lot of the voters for the Green Party don't like dogs, actually.
00:23:31.680
Anyway, so she's their pick and she doesn't seem terribly remarkable, although people started
00:23:39.760
digging into her and they realised, oh, right, actually, she's a clean energy technician, as
00:23:46.160
She is some sort of administrator and she's married to an associate principal scientist
00:24:03.140
So, the Green voters being the elite class and the immigrants, well, she's the elite class
00:24:08.580
Maybe that's who Zach Polanski was talking about with the billionaires, all the people
00:24:14.280
And so, it's like, no, she's not a plumber, she's a clean energy technician, she doesn't
00:24:18.020
install pipes or anything, you know, I know what you think of when you think of a plumber,
00:24:28.900
It's going to be someone who sends a lot of emails during the day to organise, like,
00:24:38.200
She's going to be an administrator of some sort and she's married to an associate principal
00:24:41.220
scientist at AstraZeneca, which sounds like a pretty important thing.
00:24:49.160
And she came out and did this video of her doing plastering, which is like, okay, but
00:25:04.800
I mean, you know, I've seen a few rooms being redone.
00:25:08.360
But anyway, she's got this as if she's now a builder, which was weird.
00:25:14.340
And people who were builders were like, well, hang on a second.
00:25:24.420
She, we can assume this is some sort of prop or personal project.
00:25:28.740
You know, this is all a PR fakery, which it seems like it obviously was.
00:25:35.880
This is like, she's bought property that has a barn attached to it and she's turning it
00:25:40.860
into an art studio or something like that and doing something like that.
00:25:44.040
And like in the, in the video, she's like spinning that board around and slapping the,
00:25:49.220
But she's doing it in a very inarticulate, unprofessional way.
00:25:53.860
And so plum, the builders were just like, she's never done this before.
00:26:03.660
Should have just come out and said, yeah, she's an office worker from Gorton and Denton
00:26:09.940
You know, if they'd just come out and said, you know, she's just an office worker, it
00:26:12.480
would be like, okay, yeah, a lot of people are, you know, nothing.
00:26:15.940
And you wouldn't think about it any further, would you?
00:26:17.240
When you hear her accent, it's clearly a local accent.
00:26:20.760
You just be like, yeah, okay, local office worker from the, from the area.
00:26:25.780
But, you know, even if she's married to some principal scientist at AstraZeneca.
00:26:30.740
But they really tried to focus on the plumbing thing, did they?
00:26:32.700
They caught, they literally called her a plumber.
00:26:36.760
In fact, the BBC, I think, even called her a plumber.
00:26:47.800
And she's a councillor at the Greens, with the Greens on Trafford Council.
00:26:51.940
So it's like, right, okay, I don't know why you're lying about this.
00:26:57.560
I'm sure she'll do fine, because they'll, like you said, there'll be backroom deals.
00:27:02.380
They're currently speaking to community leaders and saying, look, we're the Green Party.
00:27:17.520
The Labour Party are doubtless making the same pitch.
00:27:20.080
But, of course, the Labour Party are dying, and the Muslim vote can see it.
00:27:22.760
And they've been abandoning it anyway, which is why we've got the Muslim independence.
00:27:25.720
There's been a general peeling away of the Muslims from Labour, because Starmer is a Zionist, frankly.
00:27:32.920
And so, speaking about Muslim independence, isn't there another party, Jeremy Corbyn's thing?
00:27:41.340
The Liberal Democrats know they can't win this.
00:27:43.380
And so, they've announced Jackie Pearcey as their candidate.
00:27:52.540
So, let's talk about the left not splitting the vote.
00:27:56.260
Because Galloway, this is the kind of constituency that Galloway has historically fought very aggressively and won in.
00:28:08.640
So, at least, I mean, I actually quite like the guy.
00:28:10.860
I would never vote for him, but I don't mind him that much.
00:28:14.740
But the thing is, do you remember the Respect Party in Bradford?
00:28:22.060
He goes out there and says, I'm going to be the champion of the Muslims.
00:28:27.560
And I think if he were to win this, he would be the MP in British history who had won the most elections.
00:28:35.200
He's been in Parliament like eight times or something.
00:28:41.160
And what he does is he cynically galvanises sectarian votes in whichever constituency, gets them to vote for him, gives the communist foreigner rhetoric.
00:28:51.580
Like, you know, the last one was about Gaza and things like this, obviously.
00:28:59.700
And so he could have done a lot of damage to the left in this constituency and possibly even won it himself.
00:29:14.920
But he did say Labour have woefully failed the people of the constituency.
00:29:26.700
You know, without a doubt, he's a superb rhetorician.
00:29:31.680
It would be so funny to have him back in Parliament.
00:29:37.940
He says Labour was the enemy of the British people.
00:29:40.280
Adding the British people have become poorer while the government spent money on a wasteful war in Ukraine.
00:29:45.760
And he also opposed the introduction of digital IDs.
00:29:48.800
And added, this by-election was triggered by Labour in an attempt to replace Starmer with a new acceptable face.
00:29:52.820
Whoever wins, Labour lose, and Starmer must resign.
00:29:59.520
Anyway, so the left, you know, the sort of like troublemaker on the left, Galloway, isn't fielding a candidate.
00:30:08.000
Now, I get the feeling it's not so much that your party are actually tactically voting.
00:30:14.080
Although that is the broad frame of what they say.
00:30:18.520
And the fact that your party haven't got their stuff together yet.
00:30:22.340
And so haven't actually got any boots on the ground here.
00:30:25.020
As you can see, the single greatest threat to this country is far-right reformed government.
00:30:29.300
This danger is actively being facilitated by a failing Labour government, which is prioritising the interests of the rich and powerful, blah, blah, blah.
00:30:34.600
Your party is currently holding our first leadership elections, after which the work of formally constituting branches will begin.
00:30:41.600
They're still squabbling over who's going to be leader.
00:30:44.380
Because remember, they voted against the MPs being the leaders.
00:30:49.800
Zahra Sultana, obviously Corbyn was meant to be the leader of your party, but they had a vote because they feel they have to have a vote on everything.
00:30:57.340
And Zahra Sultana ginned up sufficient members of your party to vote against Corbyn being the leader and having non-MPs as the leader.
00:31:06.420
So they're having a party, a council, a constituency leadership or something.
00:31:11.580
And it's just like, right, this is going nowhere.
00:31:13.680
This is just the Monty Python sketch over and over again with this party.
00:31:16.980
They haven't moved past square one in whatever it is, two years they've been operating.
00:31:26.920
But the point is, they're not there splitting the left-wing vote.
00:31:29.860
Not because they don't want to, but because they're incompetent.
00:31:32.700
And then you have people like Vince Cable from the Liberal Democrats.
00:31:42.900
But he did tell the iPaper that the Lib Dems and progressive voters should unite behind Labour in Greater Manchester in order to stop Farage.
00:31:52.040
So there are, so you've got the sort of soft left types who are like, yeah, vote Labour.
00:31:57.140
And you've got the hard left types and the immigrants who are probably going to vote Greens.
00:32:06.720
And so that makes it all the more incumbent on the Conservatives.
00:32:12.940
Like, you know, we all have our problems with Nigel Farage.
00:32:17.020
But better to have our guys winning these totemic seats that are symbolic of what's going on than allowing it to go to the left.
00:32:26.660
And it's entirely possible the left will just shift entirely.
00:32:29.640
It may well be the bougie left, Vote Labour, and the commie left, Vote Greens.
00:32:36.040
I mean, if I've got any faith left in the, you know, general public, I think they will get this message, though.
00:32:44.820
I think the average working class person in Gorton and Denton...
00:32:50.480
I mean, what are they going to be looking at with the Tories that makes them think, yes, that's what I want?
00:32:54.900
I mean, apart from a handful of boomers who made up their mind 30 years ago and haven't changed it.
00:33:01.320
Remember, that 9% is actually about 4.5% of the overall constituency as well.
00:33:06.240
But that 4.5% could be the thing that swings up, right?
00:33:09.820
So if you are a white working class person in Gorton and Denton, honestly, you've got to get out and vote, Farage, even if you're not normally a vote.
00:33:16.540
Those numbers you showed before, that was from the last election, and it was very questionable back then as to what momentum reform we're going to have.
00:33:29.200
So I can't see that Tory vote holding up at all.
00:33:35.060
But also, fingers crossed, as you said, it could well be the focus on the constituency in the national press, with all of the party leaders there campaigning for their men, means that the turnout is a lot higher.
00:33:48.380
And also, fingers crossed that we are correct in our assumption that the majority of people who just aren't turning out are the white majority in the constituency.
00:33:56.960
And they're like, no, actually, we are going to go and give the government a bloody nose.
00:34:00.780
We're going to give them a black eye over this.
00:34:07.220
Matt, friend of the show Goodwin, who's been on the show many times and I've talked to fairly regularly.
00:34:17.500
Matt's been spending the last few years polishing his bona fides on the right.
00:34:23.520
I mean, he comes out with a fairly strong line these days.
00:34:26.820
I've got to say, I was suspicious of him to begin with, because he was an academic who said, I'm studying the far right.
00:34:40.100
And I've had lots of, you know, I've hung out with him and had many personal meetings with him just to talk about politics and have dinner and just like discuss the issues.
00:34:51.000
And it's hard to, I mean, this has been his primary line.
00:34:54.360
He was the one who put it in the, was it the Telegraph a few months back where he was like, look, by 2044, Britons will be a white majority in their own country.
00:35:03.960
White Britons will be a minority in their own country, sorry.
00:35:06.640
And he was the one who's been mainstreaming that.
00:35:09.420
And it's like, okay, if that's containment, if that's the hope not hate candidate, what are they containing from?
00:35:15.960
Because that seems to be the far right position of, we're going to be a minority in our own country.
00:35:23.000
And if he's not committed, this is very deep cover.
00:35:26.120
Like, so, you know, I can't read the man's mind or anything, you know, but I personally don't get the impression that he's trying to deceive everyone.
00:35:34.640
I mean, I've heard that not just from you, but everybody who I know that knows him is, is it's legit.
00:35:39.940
So I'll just take the view that, you know, he was in deep cover while he was in academia.
00:35:44.160
I don't even think of it as that, because there's a video in, like, in 2011 debating Tommy Robinson on TV.
00:35:53.460
But the fact that they're having that conversation shows that Matt's interested in the subject.
00:35:58.580
And I think what simply happened is the numbers have changed, right?
00:36:01.800
Because back in 2011, yeah, okay, yeah, we're not going to, okay, the immigration's not great, but it wasn't like it was...
00:36:19.260
You know, he doesn't want to have them grow up in a country that isn't England.
00:36:25.180
He's got a high public profile, and he's generally actually got a fairly clean figure when it comes to this kind of politics, right?
00:36:32.480
He's got a couple of personal scandals in his past, which is about, you know, having an affair with a woman, divorce and stuff.
00:36:38.360
But it's not, like, the end of the world, and it's not, like, unique for a politician either.
00:36:45.480
He's not, like, some sort of, you know, boggle-eye radical who's going to start going off about something insane.
00:36:55.560
He grew up in Manchester, and then, of course, in his academic career, you know, moved to London or wherever.
00:37:06.220
But he tweeted the other day that he used to deliver pizzas in his first car, you know, in Gorton and Denton.
00:37:18.420
And, like, he, in the Tommy Robbins interview from 2011, where Tommy was accusing him of being from London, he's like, no, I'm from Manchester.
00:37:32.040
So, actually, Matt Goodman is not a bad candidate, I think, here, because he's intellectually credible and, I think, relatively popular with the grassroots.
00:37:41.460
And the average Reformed voter is going to see, oh, here's a white Englishman, academic, which they like.
00:37:49.360
But an academic who's on their side is always a well-loved thing.
00:37:54.480
The white English actually don't have much in the way of class envy, actually.
00:37:59.820
What they like, what they hate, is when the upper class are against them.
00:38:07.000
Well, there is a reason why Downton Abbey is so wildly popular.
00:38:14.480
Boris just did a very good job of putting it across.
00:38:24.820
I don't think he's an innately objectionable choice for the candidacy and the constituency.
00:38:29.660
And I think that the white working class there, he'll be persuasive to.
00:38:33.540
I mean, he's the only candidate on this list who I haven't thought is questionable.
00:38:36.280
Every single other one, I've just thought, why are you doing that?
00:38:44.300
So, that's, you know, actually not a bad choice.
00:38:47.620
But then we have some other problems on the right.
00:38:53.880
So, another candidate for Advance UK is friend of the show, Nick Buckley.
00:39:01.440
And I haven't got a particular preference between them.
00:39:04.540
And a lot of people have been like, oh no, what if you split the vote sufficiently?
00:39:15.520
But Advance just doesn't have the air cover at this point, though.
00:39:25.640
And so, and now a lot of people are saying, right, it's irresponsible for them to run.
00:39:29.380
But the counter-argument is, well, they're a political party who's competing for the seat.
00:39:35.120
And actually, Nick Buckley is not a bad candidate at all to run.
00:39:40.120
And he's got an MBE for his charity work in the area.
00:39:51.860
But if you think about it, actually, Matt probably would have been better in like Sussex or something.
00:39:58.520
Being an academic who has the track record and can speak to middle-class audiences on Question Time, yeah, maybe he would have been better in the South.
00:40:07.920
And actually, Nick Buckley would be good as the reform candidate in Manchester.
00:40:11.940
Being a Manchester lad with a credentialed history of charity work, they've got a bloody MBE for.
00:40:16.820
I suppose the reason why he's not in reform is Nigel Farage's sheer hostility to the online right.
00:40:22.980
And despite that, Matt, the space between Matt and Nick is really minimal.
00:40:30.840
They're going to agree on just about everything.
00:40:35.260
And so, it's just one of those kind of like, oh, God.
00:40:37.480
The only issue it comes down to, can you tolerate the fragile ego of Nigel Farage and all the problems that come with that?
00:40:45.000
And one of them has decided I can tolerate it and the other one has decided I can't.
00:40:47.980
But not just that, for Nigel, a lot of it is credentialism, right?
00:40:52.560
As in, is this person a sort of, you know, known quantity who will definitely be a good boy at all times?
00:40:59.140
Nick, he's not like a controlled guy, you know.
00:41:02.740
He's not like, oh, I have a hand over me, so I'm going to make sure I don't say the wrong thing.
00:41:09.380
And so, you know, he is, I guess, slightly more outspoken on certain...
00:41:17.340
Like, not that that's in any way a negative on Nick, because obviously, you know, I agree with him.
00:41:24.520
But the point is, Farage should be past this need for, like, an extremely sanitized filter at this point.
00:41:33.660
The risk mitigation that he does all the time is far too extreme.
00:41:39.580
And really, Nick Buckley should be running for reform.
00:41:43.220
And if you were doing a sort of Trumpian takeover of the UK by just bringing the right together and saying, look, we're all in, lads, we're going for it, like Trump did in America, Nick Buckley would be the ideal candidate for this.
00:41:54.640
But he can't do that because, I mean, he created Advance by getting rid of Ben Habib in a really personal way.
00:42:00.460
And now the cast-offs are coming back to haunt him.
00:42:06.920
And I just hope he doesn't govern like this, because if he governs for the next five minutes when he's in 10 Downing Street, I mean, it's going to be this all the time.
00:42:15.840
Things are going to come back and blow up on him.
00:42:21.600
And so, basically, sorry, Nick, I have to say, I think people should vote for Matt, because he's in the commanding position at the moment.
00:42:31.540
And actually, I do think that Advance shouldn't have been contesting this, just because of the frailty of the nature of the lead that they have.
00:42:42.000
But, I mean, I'm not going to cast him under the bus or anything and say, Nick's a bad guy for doing it.
00:42:46.340
No, no, there's a rival political party, and that's a strong argument.
00:42:52.040
You know, good luck to everyone involved, but, you know, I could see this being a problem further down the line, right?
00:42:58.240
So, anyway, let's see who the Tories are running.
00:43:00.380
The Tories have chosen Charlotte Cadden, and honestly, she is the perfect mix of everything that's wrong with the Tories.
00:43:09.460
That's really, really interesting, because she was a police officer for 30 years in both the Greater Manchester Police and the Met.
00:43:18.100
And she really is basically everything that's wrong with the Tories.
00:43:21.500
She's got that DEI public sector look about her that just makes me think, you know, I'm wary straight away.
00:43:35.260
It's like a poisonous plant or a lizard with multi-colours.
00:43:41.440
But it's one of those typical Tory, I have a foot in both camps.
00:43:46.940
And it's like, okay, but who are you trying to win then?
00:43:53.020
You have to pick a wing and stick to it, right?
00:43:59.640
She said she wanted a proper inquiry on the grooming gangs.
00:44:06.100
But she also set up and chaired the Police Sex Equality Network.
00:44:18.420
Which is actually suppressing the careers of men artificially.
00:44:24.640
And artificially advancing the careers of women.
00:44:28.540
You remember that image of the blonde girl and the Muslim girl at the door?
00:44:34.260
It's advancing women artificially through the ranks.
00:44:37.060
I mean, if there's one career where you really do need big, burly men,
00:44:42.440
I mean, the police is pretty high up on that list.
00:44:51.520
Big, burly men, because it's a physical job and you will be demanded.
00:44:54.720
We've also, in those videos, go up on social media of two police women
00:45:01.960
And what either happens is he gets away or a member of the public,
00:45:11.140
Yeah, so she set up the Police Sex Equality and Equity Network
00:45:14.660
to challenge work-based discrimination based on sex.
00:45:17.420
It's like, right, so you've got your right-wing views,
00:45:20.260
you have your very left-wing views, and so what are you?
00:45:28.140
Like, you are just your average conservative who's trapped between two worlds
00:45:44.140
She doesn't look like the most magnetic person either,
00:45:48.260
Really, and Jacob Rees-Mogg put out a video the other day saying,
00:45:51.940
look, the Conservatives just shouldn't run anyone.
00:45:53.880
Like, you know, we shouldn't be splitting the right-wing vote here.
00:45:58.240
We've got to start denying wins to the left generally,
00:46:02.580
So, come on, they ran someone anyway, obviously.
00:46:05.320
I mean, the same issue is throughout all of this.
00:46:13.020
Starmer is trying to hang on to the leadership of the Labour Party.
00:46:15.580
Kemi is trying to hang on to the leadership of the Conservative Party.
00:46:18.640
Farage is trying to hang on to the leadership of the...
00:46:20.900
Everybody's just trying to hang on to their job.
00:46:29.420
Anyway, one party on the right that isn't splitting the vote is UKIP.
00:46:34.920
Nick Tenconi put out a statement, which, honestly, was a good statement.
00:46:39.500
UKIP were not interested in splitting votes to allow leftists to gain power.
00:46:42.920
We were interested in uniting the right and preventing the communists
00:46:44.960
from gaining further political influence over Britain.
00:46:47.420
UKIP will be standing candidates in the 2029 election,
00:46:50.540
but would not be looking to sabotage efforts to keep the left out of power.
00:46:56.200
UKIP's strategy will be to help unite the right.
00:46:58.500
That's actually a really responsible thing to do.
00:47:00.900
Every time I see something from UKIP these days, I think, solid.
00:47:09.360
If you had held the line with, oh, who was the guy, Gerard Batten.
00:47:15.340
But no, they did the dirty on him, and then was it Richard Brain or something?
00:47:21.040
But they've just, it's not a functional party anymore.
00:47:33.980
So you've got Labour, Reform, Green, Conservatives, Lib Dems.
00:47:48.120
Advanced UK, they've got the Monster Raving Looney Party.
00:47:53.380
For people who feel that politics doesn't apply to them.
00:48:13.340
Why do you just vote for Lib Dem, for God's sakes?
00:48:17.300
Why wouldn't you vote for the Lib Dems if you wanted that?
00:48:19.320
But anyway, then you've got at the very bottom,
00:48:24.080
Didn't know we have one of those either, but why not?
00:48:29.220
And also, the Communist League has got the poshest name on the entire list.
00:48:36.420
Yeah, I didn't look into them because they're not going to go anywhere.
00:48:41.060
And so, as we can see, it's all to play for from basically every side.
00:48:49.140
Reform are in the lead, but that lead is not insurmountable, nor is it guaranteed.
00:48:53.880
And honestly, with the current events at the moment, it may well overtake the Labour Party anyway.
00:48:59.080
Labour gets flushed out, Green Party vote goes up, Green Party win.
00:49:03.460
So it's going to come down to reform and the Green Party, I suspect, with the Conservatives
00:49:08.360
essentially being the kingmaker here, the Conservative voter.
00:49:12.320
Does the Conservative voter vote Tory and split the vote and ruin things?
00:49:16.000
Or do they swallow their pride, vote for reform, and actually secure a right-wing seat?
00:49:27.920
Not only is this a problem, but reform aren't even in the clear, even if the Conservatives
00:49:35.120
Because you're aware that Tommy Robinson is wildly popular among reform voters.
00:49:43.040
They've had internal wranglings for a long, long time.
00:49:46.000
Over the leadership's hatred of Tommy and the base's love of him.
00:49:51.900
Because they view reform as an anti-Islam party.
00:49:56.820
Most reform voters really do think this is an anti-Islam party.
00:50:00.300
I mean, it's bizarre because, I mean, I've talked about this before.
00:50:03.180
The people who are supporting reform are ethnats.
00:50:15.140
He is a civnat, but he does have nativist leanings, right?
00:50:20.700
I mean, he is probably more aligned politically with the reform leadership than the reform membership.
00:50:29.080
And the reform leadership can't help but slamming him all the time.
00:50:35.200
I mean, ideologically, there's not much difference between him and Nigel Fry.
00:50:40.220
In fact, what's the difference between Matt Goodwin and Tommy Robinson?
00:50:44.780
The Labour Party have been tweeting that out a lot, actually.
00:50:51.120
But the Labour Party literally tweeted out a clip of Matt Goodwin saying,
00:50:56.220
well, there's not much difference between me and Tommy Robinson.
00:51:00.400
They're not raving racists, but they are nativists who are concerned about the demographic changes
00:51:06.960
I mean, he's like a one-for-one politically with Tommy Robinson, except he sounds posh.
00:51:14.600
But the point being, who does the working class vote in Gorton and Denton support?
00:51:27.740
And so it's kind of weird that Danny Kruger went on TV and was like, we don't want his
00:51:32.320
Because this isn't even Nigel Farage's line anymore, right?
00:51:35.680
Nigel Farage, he's been battered by his own electorate and constituents to the point where,
00:51:40.780
because he used to be, oh, no, I hate that Tommy Robinson.
00:51:43.940
And now he's like, oh, well, Tommy and I are just doing different things.
00:51:46.620
You know, I think he's done good things on the grooming gangs, but he's not a politician.
00:51:54.280
Danny, I just want to ask you, because there is a by-election coming up in Greater Manchester,
00:51:58.340
in Gorton and Denton, and your candidate, Matthew Goodwin, who's the candidate for reform,
00:52:03.980
he's been endorsed by the far-right activist Tommy Robinson.
00:52:17.540
We don't, you know, we're not going to make a particular welcome to that.
00:52:21.880
But no, we absolutely stand against what Tommy Robinson stands for.
00:52:25.360
We have a vision of a civic nationalism, of patriotism for this country, no matter where you come from.
00:52:30.780
And that message is resonating across the country.
00:52:41.720
So, every patriot in Gorton and Denton, which I'm guessing there's quite a few,
00:52:48.360
because they've got about a third of the vote off the bat before any of the campaigning had even happened,
00:52:56.740
I thought you guys were the base patriot party.
00:52:59.420
I mean, if Tommy wanted to, he could speak up at this point and really poison the chances for reform.
00:53:09.820
But the reason is, like, Danny Kruger has really kind of interjected this into the debate,
00:53:14.480
because, of course, Labour have been hammering Matt Goodwin over and over,
00:53:18.920
saying, four days ago, Matt Goodwin was asked to distance himself from far-right extremists.
00:53:23.100
Tommy Robinson endorsed him, and he failed to do so.
00:53:25.180
The only people who care, Labour, are people who are going to vote for you anyway.
00:53:30.440
Like, the white working class in Gordon and Denton, being so close to the Muslim community there,
00:53:36.260
are going to be very aware of the problems that Tommy Robinson has been raising,
00:53:43.380
Some builder's labourer in Manchester is not going to see that tweet from the Labour Party and go,
00:53:51.760
They're going to see Tommy Robinson saying, mate, I love you.
00:53:55.680
Like, when I first met Tommy, I'd been, you know, I'd been recognised in the streets plenty and stuff like that.
00:54:00.940
But I noticed the kind of men who had come up to Tommy regularly, and this was back in, like, 2017,
00:54:05.820
they'd just be like, mate, love what you're doing, love what you're doing, you know, really intensely,
00:54:09.160
you know, because this is serious to them, right?
00:54:11.080
And the Labour Party are like, yeah, well, Matt Goodwin didn't diss himself.
00:54:15.300
Because Matt Goodwin is going to be relying on a lot of Tommy Robinson fans in Gordon and Denton.
00:54:20.100
I mean, basically, what it goes to show to me is Matt is a lot more switched on than Danny.
00:54:24.740
Matt has taken the measure of what the temperature is here and has completely understood that this is just a complete kick in the face from Labour to themselves.
00:54:33.960
Because, of course, as we've talked previously, a large percentage of Reform's current voter base are ex-Labour voters from the white working class
00:54:42.020
who are fundamentally the ones who agree with Tommy Robinson themselves.
00:54:44.680
So, the student activist who is running the Labour Party, social media, has failed to understand Tommy Robinson's position in this entire discussion.
00:54:54.520
And so, Matt has actually really skilfully just, he hasn't really engaged with it.
00:55:03.100
And even Farage is at the point where he's just like, well, you know, Tommy can do as he likes, we're just getting on with our job.
00:55:07.540
I mean, it took Farage a long while to figure that out.
00:55:11.000
A lot of rakes to the face to get to the point where it's like, oh, no, I'm pissing off.
00:55:16.660
And so, anyway, Danny Kruger has kind of smacked into that, which has not been wise.
00:55:21.880
But the response from Labour has also been kind of bizarre.
00:55:24.920
So, that's like the Labour student section who are like, oh, he's failed to do that.
00:55:29.820
It's like, that's, I mean, again, like it's like Boris Johnson with the Letterboxd and the Bumboy.
00:55:36.020
Because, actually, there are a lot of people who like Tommy and don't like you.
00:55:39.380
If Matt Goodwin really wanted to win, he would hold a rally with Tommy in the middle of whatever it is, Denton.
00:55:49.380
Like, they're signalling to all of the pro Tommy guys and Denton and Gordon and Denton.
00:55:58.800
Yeah, by the way, he's the Tommy Robertson candidate.
00:56:05.380
So, another line of attack that the Labour have gone on to is that Matt Goodwin isn't really British.
00:56:13.660
So, this guy is attacking Matt Goodwin for not being British.
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This is an Indian Labour MP called Dr. Jeevan Sandhur is attacking Matt Goodwin for not being British.
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The thing about Matt Goodwin is he's not very British.
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The same actually goes to Tommy Robertson, who's just endorsed him.
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Matt thinks you can't really be British unless you're one, white, and two, you have the right great-grandparents.
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Now, Goodwin's definition means that Winston Churchill isn't really British, and I don't think Churchill would like that very much.
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Goodwin doesn't get our British values, our history, our culture.
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Britain is and has always been made up of different communities, different communities that come together.
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You say Bath in London and Bath up in Loughborough.
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When different migrant communities came from across the Irish Sea, from India, from across the world, in fact, what was a former empire.
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Those different communities came together to forge one British nation.
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It's not that you're English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish, Cornish, whatever.
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You can't be British without people who come from across the seas.
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And I've got to admire him for playing the long game, because if that's a troll, it's beautifully done.
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I kind of want to move to Delhi, live there for 30 years, and then make a video like that, explaining that, you know, I'm the Indian.
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Narendra Modi or whatever, he's not Indian, because he's not Indian.
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It's just like my brother in Vishnu, you are literally an Indian.
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Like, you know, if you were, like, looking at a lineup of different European ethnicities, you'd be like, yeah, he's the Englishman.
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You know, you can tell Matt Goodwin is from this place.
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It's just like, okay, that's not a very strong line of argument, I would suggest.
00:58:46.280
And so, yeah, what it implies is the Labour Party basically are out of narratives, right?
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So, basically, I think Labour are toast at this point.
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I think the Greens will out-promise them on the patronage networks for the minority communities.
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And I think the reputation of the Labour Party in these communities has tanked anyway.
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Because, I mean, Zach Polanski has been hard against Israel, despite the fact that he himself is Jewish.
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And this Israel-Gaza thing is a massive reason that the minorities are going either independent or to the Greens.
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So I think the Greens will clean up there and they'll take the Muslim vote over to them with them.
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I think the Labour Party is losing the white working class vote.
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And fingers crossed, a lot of the white working class who previously didn't vote are going to come out for them in large numbers.
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And if you're in Gordon and Denton, definitely think about getting these people who didn't turn out last time.
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And if they say no, they'll be like, look, we need you now.
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Reform 29,000, Greens 27,000, something like that.
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Let me quickly, I didn't even think to get the date.
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I mean, I think the rate that things are moving, God knows what the state of the Labour Party is going to be by then.
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So, yeah, it looks like from the best information that I can find now, basically, you need to get the white working class out.
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I don't think they're going to go to the Labour Party.
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Sorry to the other right-wing parties, but, you know, Matt Goodwin would be a good guy to have in Parliament, right?
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He would at least be able to deliver a solid right-wing message.
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So, hopefully, you know, things would be moving in the right direction if we got Matt in.
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I don't want any of them getting any ground at this point.
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And it's actually quite an interesting representation of what the country is looking like.
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And, honestly, I think it just comes down to we, the English, have to go out and make it happen.