The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - January 27, 2026


The Great Misalignment


Episode Stats


Length

1 hour and 4 minutes

Words per minute

186.31699

Word count

11,940

Sentence count

503

Harmful content

Misogyny

12

sentences flagged

Toxicity

43

sentences flagged

Hate speech

39

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

It's election day, and there's a lot to cover in this episode of the Political Chit Chat. We've got the latest YouGov poll, an exclusive interview with Rupert Lowe, and a comic that's halfway through its halfway point that's philosophically informed.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hi guys, Islander 5 is out to purchase now. As you can see from this amazing cover,
00:00:05.700 this edition's theme is Heroism, Power and Modernity. And the articles in there, which I
00:00:11.560 have to say are rather good, don't you know? And I'm not just talking about mine, I'm talking about
00:00:16.180 all of them. They discuss what the Heroic Society is and why modernity is destroying it, but why
00:00:22.800 the spirit of the hero is looming throughout everything that's happening. And again, I say
00:00:28.080 the cover goes hard, right? Because, I mean, look at it. You would think that this was tailored for the
00:00:33.920 current events, but no, we're always ahead of the curve. Anyway, it's thicker than normal as well
00:00:38.400 because we just happen to have a load of extra content in there. We've got an exclusive interview
00:00:41.980 from Rupert Lowe, Lutz from the editor, and a comic that's halfway through that's philosophically
00:00:48.060 informed, which I think you'll enjoy. So get it while you can at shop.lotuses.com. The link will
00:00:52.940 be in the description. Hi folks, welcome back to another one of Carl and Dan's political chats.
00:00:57.880 A lot's going on at the moment, and it's really fast, and we've got a lot to cover. So let's just
00:01:03.000 crack on. Polling has been very strange, right? So here's a YouGov poll from today from Sky News,
00:01:11.900 as reported by Sky News. YouGov being, I think, the fourth most reliable pollster in the country
00:01:16.680 out of something like 50. So they're pretty good. They get most things correct. Reform on 25,
00:01:23.220 Labour on 21, Conservatives on 17, Greens on 16, and no one cares about the Liberal Democrats.
00:01:28.900 So that's a low poll. This is sort of a high poll. We'll get Reform on 32, Conservatives on 18,
00:01:36.740 Greens on 17, Labour on 14, Lib Dems on 11, right? So let's have a look at the average of polls, right?
00:01:43.460 So there has been a bit of a downturn recently for Reform, but they got a 1% bump from the Tory
00:01:50.220 defections. Interesting. 1%. The thing that strikes me about this is your first poll. Okay,
00:01:59.040 let's contrast your first poll with your second poll. The second poll, where it was actually quite
00:02:02.200 a strong difference, is something that we talked about a whole bunch of times, and that is Reform
00:02:06.180 are in first place and everybody else is in second place. And that is inherently unstable because in a
00:02:11.280 two-party system, first pass the post is designed to be a two-party system. You can't have four
00:02:15.800 parties in second place, it doesn't hold. But what your first poll shows is you've actually got
00:02:21.140 five parties in second place. There's no clear leader. Now that is wildly unstable for a political
00:02:28.120 system. It's crazy. But like we were talking about previously, what I think we're witnessing is a
00:02:34.520 current realignment, right? The centre is draining out into the fringes, frankly, the extremes. And
00:02:41.760 this is just the process that we are watching play out. And so you can see where we'll come to
00:02:48.760 where these things, who these people are and where they're going in a minute, in fact.
00:02:52.800 But so this gives us some general election predictions, right? This is from electoral calculus.
00:02:56.620 And as you can see, if based on the previous seats, the next one, the prediction for the next one is
00:03:05.760 like roughly what they think they're going to get. So depending on like the average of polls gives you
00:03:10.640 this, could be a lot higher, could be a lot lower. But either way, it's pretty bad for the Conservatives
00:03:17.220 and Labour, right? So if the Conservatives and Labour really hit it out of the park, they get not even
00:03:22.180 250 seats each. Considering Keir Starmer's got 407 at the moment. And I mean, the Conservatives
00:03:28.600 are on like 120, but you know, they should be the major party. Yes. But the low seats...
00:03:34.280 The high seats don't add up. So this is just to be... Each row is to be considered discreet.
00:03:39.240 Correct. But the low seats, I mean, my God, that's pretty bad. Yes.
00:03:44.280 The reform, the lowest they think they're going to get is 135. Now that's not great. But considering
00:03:48.580 they've got eight MPs at the moment, there's still a lot of ground gained. The average being
00:03:54.020 274, but of course the high, 396. So if you're Nigel Farage and you're looking at this, you can
00:04:00.000 think, well, a bit of solid campaigning, right? With my 28% average...
00:04:06.000 I think that is really the danger. And I think this is what not just Nigel Farage, but the
00:04:10.740 entire political class is doing. And not just the entire, everybody in SW1. So I'm including
00:04:16.380 all the mainstream media... The entire Westminster bubble.
00:04:19.940 Yeah, the entire Westminster bubble. What I think they're doing is they think that they are playing
00:04:25.220 pre-Brexit political chess. And the reason they think that is because they literally don't know
00:04:31.280 anything else. Not only their entire careers, their entire lives have been pre-Brexit political chess.
00:04:37.680 And not only their entire lives, the lives of their grandparents.
00:04:41.020 Oh yeah, going back to whatever it is, 1930 or whatever it is. Whenever it was that the Labour
00:04:46.680 Party emerged, yeah. Literally, all modern political calculation has ended.
00:04:53.500 Yes, all living memory is this political chess move where you do this, I do that, and then
00:04:58.980 one of us gets checkmate and then we win the election. Or we form a working party with a
00:05:04.900 hung parliament or whatever it is. I'm not sure that's what's actually going on. What I think
00:05:10.060 has happened is that the political legitimacy itself is drinking at the last chance saloon.
00:05:15.220 Yes.
00:05:16.140 And that what you're actually seeing is we're in a shake-up where legitimacy is preceding
00:05:23.040 parties and not the other way around. Because what I think the average commentator, well,
00:05:28.460 the SW1 bubble thinks is that what is going on is a process of elite realignment. And then
00:05:34.880 once the elites have worked out what that realignment is, legitimacy follows from that,
00:05:40.620 normal governance resumes. And that's probably why you see this sort of tacit approval for
00:05:46.900 reform, even amongst things like the BBC who are giving in the time of day and stuff like
00:05:50.920 that. What I actually think is happening is that reform are dancing on thin ice in between
00:05:58.620 the rotten political establishment and something which is not allowed to exist yet. And that is
00:06:06.800 made up of excluded parties. And I've not been thinking about this long, but the three excluded
00:06:13.300 parties I would highlight on this is one excluded talent. Rupert Lowe is an example of this.
00:06:20.600 Now, what I mean by excluded... So, for example, I don't think... And I think even Rupert himself
00:06:24.640 would agree with me if he heard this. I don't think that Rupert Lowe is a once-in-a-generation
00:06:30.160 political talent. I think that he is a once-in-a-decade leakage from the excluded part of the
00:06:37.560 political world to the included part. He wasn't supposed to make that transition. You're normally
00:06:43.020 excluded. Nigel Farage himself is probably the last decade's leakage from the excluded world into
00:06:49.120 the included world. These people don't get across normally. I think, actually, there are dozens,
00:06:53.680 if not hundreds, of Rupert Lowe's out there, ready to act who could, if it were not the fact
00:07:00.120 they're excluded. And they're excluded for a number of reasons. They're excluded because
00:07:02.460 the political system, one, doesn't want them in, and two, the political system is so rotten,
00:07:08.540 they don't want to go in either. So there's a kind of double exclusion mechanism going on there.
00:07:12.460 The second excluded field is where do the narratives that resonate come from?
00:07:17.720 And I think they come from us. Sometimes, literally, you and I, people in this office,
00:07:23.740 all the online rights sphere as a whole.
00:07:25.600 Very much so.
00:07:26.500 And we know this is true because the amount of times where we've done some serious thinking
00:07:30.420 on something and compressed it into a narrative or phrasing that then resonates and people
00:07:38.040 understand. And then we're watching a Nigel Farage press conference two months later,
00:07:42.060 and we see a very specific bit of phrasing that we've used.
00:07:46.640 Two-tier policing.
00:07:47.900 Exactly.
00:07:48.380 That was a very online right thing.
00:07:49.720 Yes.
00:07:50.180 Remigration is another example of this. 1.00
00:07:53.520 And Max Tempers, in particular, has been very effective. He's only got like 20,000 Twitter
00:07:58.300 followers. But Max Tempers-isms end up percolating upwards into the mainstream.
00:08:04.620 And I understand why this is happening. This is happening because even though we are persona
00:08:08.740 non grata for Nigel Farage and the SW1 bubble, the people working for them, they're all watching
00:08:16.040 us.
00:08:16.500 Yes.
00:08:16.800 Right? So when they see something, they're then like, oh, okay, I'll jot that down. And
00:08:20.940 I go to the boss and I say, you could phrase it like this. And he's like, bloody hell, that's 0.97
00:08:24.660 good. 0.95
00:08:25.580 You came up with that all yourself?
00:08:27.160 Oh, yes, I did say.
00:08:28.500 I mean, I don't mind if they steal it. They're welcome to.
00:08:30.440 No, no, but not, I mean, we put it out in the public for free, right? But not only that,
00:08:33.780 it's not even that they necessarily are watching us, although I think a lot of them are.
00:08:37.640 Well, they are, because they message us sometimes.
00:08:40.680 Well, yeah, of course, I know which ones are. But the milieu ends up being curated in the
00:08:45.820 direction that we want it to go, because we create the memes, or we compress the ideas
00:08:49.660 down, and this just flows into the river.
00:08:53.800 Well, we're the only ones actually doing thinking as opposed to responding to headlines, which
00:08:57.920 is what they spend most of their time doing.
00:08:59.040 I like your point about this is not about elite realignment, and I think you're right.
00:09:05.160 I think what this is about is the public realignment, because...
00:09:09.060 That is my third point, yeah.
00:09:10.420 We'll come to that a bit later on in the podcast, if that's all right, because we are in a democratic
00:09:14.660 system. For all of its faults, we still have the power of selection, right?
00:09:19.800 It is actually up to the public to decide what MPs they return to the parliament.
00:09:23.480 Okay, so I'll return to my third excluded group, because that will almost certainly flow
00:09:27.620 in.
00:09:27.700 It's the general public.
00:09:28.520 Well, what it is, it's the voters who showed up for Brexit, never had before, never had
00:09:37.300 since.
00:09:38.040 Put a pin in it, we'll come back to it, because you're exactly on the money, I think, there.
00:09:42.060 But you are right, and this is why Farage taking all the ex-Tories is so weird, and everyone's
00:09:47.880 like, what are you doing?
00:09:49.400 Well, that works by the logic of the 20th century.
00:09:52.980 If you play political chess, it works.
00:09:54.580 Yeah, well, why wouldn't I just take these known, and a lot of them are MPs, or have
00:10:00.060 been MPs, have been in government, well, yeah, if I just bring them over, logismacy
00:10:04.420 flows from the top.
00:10:05.940 Logismacy flows from the party.
00:10:07.960 Nigel Farage thinks he is gaining logismacy by doing this.
00:10:11.920 However, having our ear to the ground, we're like, oh, people are not happy with this.
00:10:17.540 I mean, like, there are a lot of people who hate Zia Youssef for being a Muslim.
00:10:22.260 A lot of people.
00:10:23.160 Now, I'm not saying I'm one of them, or anything like that, but, like, you can't
00:10:25.860 deny that, and Lalia Cunningham has had this exact same point.
00:10:29.600 Read the comments on her trigonometry interview.
00:10:31.980 It's a good interview, right?
00:10:33.000 She's a fluent, clear speaker, and she's obviously not a raging Islamist, and yet, a large portion 0.96
00:10:38.840 of the British public just hear the word Muslim, and are just like, don't like it.
00:10:41.920 She's actually quite politically sound.
00:10:43.340 I listened to that in the car on the way in the morning.
00:10:44.720 I agree, she's good.
00:10:45.140 She's pretty good.
00:10:46.300 I mean, the issue is...
00:10:47.500 Is she going to get a fair hearing?
00:10:48.860 Yeah, the issue is that there was acute demographic stress because of the decisions of the elite.
00:10:53.700 Yes.
00:10:54.760 And so, you know, people are kind of at the point where politics has been secretarianized.
00:11:00.980 You know, it's like saying to, you know, a Protestant in Northern Ireland at the height 0.57
00:11:05.760 of the Troubles, you know, this Catholic over here can articulate your views really well.
00:11:11.460 Why don't you vote for them?
00:11:12.620 And it's like, well, because they're a Catholic.
00:11:15.620 And you're exactly right.
00:11:17.020 And so, they are playing with the deck chairs on the Titanic, rearranging them, thinking
00:11:22.140 that this will give legitimacy as to the seating arrangement, but actually, everyone's already
00:11:26.620 getting on the lifeboats.
00:11:27.960 And I can understand why they think it works.
00:11:29.660 It's because it always has that worked that way before.
00:11:32.180 People wait for the elites to come to a consensus between them.
00:11:34.920 That then gets laundered through the media.
00:11:36.320 Everybody at home gets told, OK, the elites have agreed, and therefore, this is a good
00:11:42.020 thing.
00:11:42.280 This is what we're doing.
00:11:43.740 And the public have been spending, it depends on how old you are, if you're 60, you've been
00:11:46.660 watching the political class do that for 60 years and produce failure after failure.
00:11:51.400 The political system as a whole is drinking in the last chance saloon here.
00:11:54.920 It's not a question of whether the elites agree.
00:11:57.480 They can do that.
00:11:58.240 They don't have the underlying legitimacy.
00:12:00.360 And what legitimacy that reform did have is we are not them.
00:12:04.940 Yes, we're a protest vote.
00:12:06.760 Yes, it's a weak form of legitimacy, but it's good enough in this moment.
00:12:10.800 Better than anyone else is good.
00:12:11.760 And they are stamping on the we're not them by hiring everybody who is them. 0.98
00:12:16.980 It's literally them.
00:12:18.000 Yes.
00:12:18.620 And there was another thing as well.
00:12:21.780 The, what was I going to say?
00:12:24.140 I had something there, but I lost it.
00:12:25.820 Anyway, we'll read it that bit.
00:12:27.200 I'm sure we'll come back to it.
00:12:28.560 Right, so, yeah, this is not great, actually.
00:12:31.860 You know, very mediocre Tory reform bounce, reform Tory bounce, I guess.
00:12:39.100 And, of course, with this kind of polling, not good.
00:12:43.620 Like, it's a hung parliament, any way you slice it, like we were talking about the other day.
00:12:47.440 There isn't, sorry, not even really a hung parliament.
00:12:50.900 You know, like, how are you, it would have to take the Lib Dems or something to come over.
00:12:55.680 You're basically...
00:12:56.840 Is the Black in the Middle or the Northern Ireland Party?
00:12:58.380 Oh, yeah, sorry, the Northern Ireland Parties would have to decide it.
00:13:00.700 Now, they'd definitely go for the reforming conservatives.
00:13:03.700 But still, like, that is...
00:13:06.700 Yes.
00:13:07.700 Like, this, as you were saying, this is indicative of a political system that has lost legitimacy.
00:13:12.700 Right, and the, it is, it is the, and the people who are actually being realigned are the voting public.
00:13:20.140 Like, they are realigning themselves in spite of what the elites are doing, right?
00:13:25.420 The voting public are not happy.
00:13:26.920 My entire argument can be boiled down to legitimacy is preceding the elites, not the other way around.
00:13:32.260 And that's a shock for the system, and they don't know how to process it.
00:13:34.640 Correct.
00:13:34.980 And it's creating a weird series of misalignments that I think that people aren't really thinking about.
00:13:39.880 So, of course, we have the Tory defectors from, to reform, which, as you can see, five MPs.
00:13:47.920 So, now they have more Tory defectors MPs than they had reform MPs.
00:13:53.560 I mean, they did, well, yes, Lee Anderson.
00:13:55.520 I mean, they did start off with five.
00:13:57.180 Lee Anderson, at least one as a reform candidate.
00:13:59.300 So, they've got, you know, four Tory MP defectors now.
00:14:03.260 And that's pretty unprecedented as well, when you think about it.
00:14:05.860 Like, I can't really remember political defections before now, right?
00:14:10.100 Like, political defections were really unusual.
00:14:13.140 Like, Douglas Carswell was one.
00:14:14.980 Yeah, he went to UKIP and won Clacton.
00:14:18.100 And, I mean, there was, I mean, there always is one per parliament.
00:14:22.180 I remember the Labour government had somebody who defected.
00:14:24.940 But they're really unusual.
00:14:26.140 Yeah, and I can't remember their names.
00:14:28.140 Exactly, right?
00:14:29.080 But now, these are incredibly high profile.
00:14:31.680 Oh, yeah, now it's the six o'clock news.
00:14:33.760 You find out with the latest Tory to defect.
00:14:35.100 I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if we get off this
00:14:37.600 and discover there's been another one while we're in here filming.
00:14:39.820 Entirely possible.
00:14:40.620 I mean, this literally happened the other day
00:14:42.180 when we were filming with Jeremy.
00:14:43.300 Oh, yes, it did.
00:14:43.980 We literally had to scrap an entire episode of this.
00:14:46.380 Because we were like, well, I mean, is Jeremy?
00:14:47.840 We don't know.
00:14:48.660 And then suddenly, it turns out he had. 0.72
00:14:50.120 But the point is, the Tory party is clearly a bleeding, wounded, dying animal. 0.91
00:14:54.840 Yes. 0.64
00:14:55.220 And that's not good.
00:14:57.360 That's not going anywhere, right?
00:14:59.240 But what is...
00:15:00.160 Well, I mean, the Tory's bleeding.
00:15:02.160 I don't mind that bit.
00:15:03.300 But yes, for the political system as a whole, yes.
00:15:05.600 I'm all for it.
00:15:06.020 But this is the point, right?
00:15:07.540 The reason they're bleeding is because nobody understands
00:15:10.660 the ground shifting underneath their feet.
00:15:13.260 And they're like, oh, right, well, we've got to move.
00:15:15.520 I mean, this is clearly...
00:15:16.520 Something's happening.
00:15:17.320 Yes.
00:15:17.740 But we don't know why we're doing what we're doing, right?
00:15:20.300 We just know...
00:15:20.740 Is the Tyrannosaurus chasing after the Diplodocus,
00:15:23.720 unaware that the meteor is streaking overhead?
00:15:26.220 Pretty much.
00:15:26.940 I mean, the Conservatives are flailing.
00:15:29.540 But they're like, well, you know, reform back...
00:15:31.380 And this was only six months ago or so?
00:15:33.100 When was that?
00:15:33.740 Yeah, July 2025.
00:15:35.160 So, like, eight months ago.
00:15:36.960 You know, Farage was like, oh, I wouldn't take Swell of Braverman
00:15:39.840 because she'd damage the party's image. 0.92
00:15:42.560 Well, what's happened?
00:15:44.340 Again, are there any Tories you wouldn't take?
00:15:47.220 Because you think you're gaining legitimacy that flows from the elite.
00:15:50.480 That's why he's...
00:15:50.960 I mean, literally, it's a stated reason.
00:15:52.860 I want people with experience in government
00:15:54.060 so people can know we're a professionalised party
00:15:56.080 and you can put your trust in us.
00:15:57.940 It's like, well, actually, that's not where the trust is coming from.
00:16:01.340 The trust was coming from the fact that you wouldn't take the Tories.
00:16:05.100 There's a deeper piece of thinking that I'm doing on my next Brokonomics,
00:16:07.900 which is to just fundamentally re-evaluate
00:16:10.980 how does the British state actually work.
00:16:14.140 And I've been getting into this
00:16:15.760 and I think it is not anything like the story we're told.
00:16:18.980 The actual story is a system of risk management.
00:16:23.300 Yes.
00:16:23.500 How do I avoid judicial risk?
00:16:25.740 How do I avoid market risk?
00:16:27.140 How do I avoid risk of incompatibility with international treaties?
00:16:31.460 That kind of thing.
00:16:32.200 And when you view it as a whole series of risk ownerships,
00:16:35.060 changing the people doing the narrative construction element of this
00:16:40.460 doesn't do a damn thing.
00:16:43.040 And that was what Dominic Cummings' point was. 0.70
00:16:44.940 It's like the ministers...
00:16:46.340 Exactly what triggered my thinking.
00:16:47.880 Dominic Cummings, yeah.
00:16:48.480 The offices are not beholden to the ministers.
00:16:50.480 The ministers are just kind of figureheads
00:16:52.180 and they do nothing of any substance.
00:16:54.560 But anyway, the question is, is this going to last?
00:16:57.680 Because, I mean, like, obviously you've got Zia Youssef pointing out
00:17:01.640 that, well, you know, we'll repeal the Online Safety Act
00:17:04.120 that Braverman and Jemre put across.
00:17:06.300 I mean, Dorries was literally the author of it.
00:17:08.160 She's currently in the party. 0.98
00:17:09.900 And, you know, he's been going at them...
00:17:12.000 Again, this is back in July, for months.
00:17:14.200 Like, this is not...
00:17:15.180 And the thing is, this isn't ancient history.
00:17:17.240 You know, eight months ago is not that long ago, actually.
00:17:20.560 But things have changed so severely
00:17:22.720 that now they have to go completely back the other way.
00:17:26.400 Oh, no, I've always liked Swella Braveman and Robert Jemreich.
00:17:30.240 Yeah.
00:17:30.620 Do we think this is a match made in heaven?
00:17:32.700 Do we think this is an alliance that's going to last?
00:17:34.120 Something very interesting.
00:17:35.580 Very interesting conversations are going to be had behind the scenes.
00:17:39.000 Zia, if you want to get in touch and tell us what you really think,
00:17:41.560 we will preserve your confidence.
00:17:43.400 I'd just like to know what you make of this.
00:17:45.900 Absolutely.
00:17:47.140 Especially as he's got a controlling stake in reform.
00:17:51.640 Yes, yes.
00:17:52.580 Yes.
00:17:52.920 You know, and you don't pay 200 grand for that for nothing, right?
00:17:56.180 No, he's the heir apparent.
00:17:58.180 He's the crown prince.
00:17:59.780 Of course.
00:18:00.520 And, but this...
00:18:02.740 There are going to be personality conflicts, I think, in this.
00:18:07.000 The election is still three years out, probably,
00:18:09.260 unless it comes sooner, which no one can guarantee.
00:18:11.900 I mean, to be perfectly fair, if the party consisted of two MPs
00:18:15.560 and one of them was Nigel Farage, there would be personality conflicts.
00:18:18.520 Yes.
00:18:19.200 They're almost certainly going to be in a party of ten now.
00:18:21.720 And being...
00:18:22.280 And with big names.
00:18:23.560 Yes.
00:18:23.860 And big social media presences.
00:18:25.940 And three years to get on each other's nerves.
00:18:28.280 I mean, I don't...
00:18:28.920 And you can treat Tyson Lee Anderson as your butler.
00:18:32.180 Yeah.
00:18:32.340 But can you get away with treating Swilla Braveman and Robert Jemreich that way?
00:18:35.960 I don't think so.
00:18:37.040 The ambitious Jemreich.
00:18:38.540 Anyway, so Farage explains to us why he's taken these people
00:18:42.760 and why he wouldn't take others.
00:18:44.900 Because that's the question, right?
00:18:45.900 It's like, okay, well, if you take Swilla Braveman,
00:18:47.760 why wouldn't you take Liz Truss? 0.99
00:18:48.920 If you take Nadine Dorries, why wouldn't you take Boris Johnson?
00:18:52.600 Yeah.
00:18:53.200 Well, yes.
00:18:54.620 What's the reason for excluding them?
00:18:56.760 And this is what he says.
00:18:57.520 You talk about Britain being broken,
00:19:00.940 but you're filling reform with the very people that broke it.
00:19:05.840 Well, the Conservative government did break it.
00:19:08.520 Absolutely.
00:19:09.280 But you see, there are people like Robert Jemreich who resigned as a matter of principle.
00:19:13.740 People like Swilla Braveman who spoke out on ECHR,
00:19:17.120 said we should leave and was removed from her post.
00:19:19.980 So we are taking people who tried their best to fight the system at the time
00:19:25.840 and they admit they failed.
00:19:28.820 So we're taking failures?
00:19:30.100 Well, another way of looking at that is we're only going to take people
00:19:33.720 who've been given the Rupert Lowe treatment, except in the Tory party.
00:19:37.340 Yes.
00:19:38.280 But the theme here is, yes, they did all this damage,
00:19:43.260 but they are failures.
00:19:44.900 So we're taking them.
00:19:46.760 It's like, I mean, that's...
00:19:48.920 Hang on, what happened to Nahim...
00:19:51.740 I can't do the name.
00:19:53.680 Nahim Zwahari.
00:19:55.420 What?
00:19:55.700 Nadim Zahari.
00:19:56.560 Yes.
00:19:57.040 Yeah.
00:19:57.520 He didn't get booted out, did he?
00:19:58.660 No, he stood down because he knew he was going to get canned.
00:20:01.760 Right, so Farage's own framing doesn't even apply to him?
00:20:05.620 No, it only applies to these two.
00:20:07.120 Right.
00:20:07.540 Because these are clearly incidents of convenience.
00:20:11.480 Well, these are the two he's being asked about at the moment.
00:20:13.400 If the interviewer was a bit sharper, she would have said,
00:20:15.420 okay, well, how does Zahari fit that pattern?
00:20:18.400 But that's the point, right?
00:20:19.560 Because this isn't about him already having a sort of pre-established line,
00:20:23.760 because otherwise that pre-established line would have been what it was
00:20:26.040 eight months ago when Zia Yusuf was like,
00:20:27.580 we're not taking...
00:20:28.260 No, this is a political chess player noticing an unguarded pawn or bishop.
00:20:33.140 He's just taking pieces.
00:20:34.740 Thinking that legitimacy flows from the top down,
00:20:37.920 which I think you are right about and he's wrong about.
00:20:41.180 But it's just really weird framing,
00:20:42.860 and it puts him in a strangely vulnerable position.
00:20:45.500 There's a very febrile narrative that he's weaving
00:20:48.700 to make this seem like a good common sense move, right?
00:20:52.500 Because, I mean, everyone's noticing, well, hang on a second.
00:20:55.780 I mean, Jonathan Pye's like, this isn't even Tory light, is it?
00:20:58.760 It's just the Tories with special guest star Nigel Farage.
00:21:02.020 It's like...
00:21:02.480 Yes.
00:21:03.120 Well, yeah.
00:21:05.920 The best example I can think of is when, in season seven of Stargate,
00:21:10.660 Colonel O'Neill retired and they got that new guy in,
00:21:13.140 but otherwise the team was unchanged.
00:21:14.900 It's pretty much that.
00:21:15.980 Yeah, pretty much that.
00:21:16.900 And the thing is, that's what Calvin Robertson has pointed out.
00:21:19.600 I like Swellers. 1.00
00:21:20.300 She's an actual conservative conservative, 0.76
00:21:22.220 but it really is just the conservative party with extra steps.
00:21:24.920 And so if, like, people on the left,
00:21:26.700 and are quite entrenched on the left,
00:21:28.180 and people who are definitely on the right,
00:21:29.980 are both saying, well, hang on a second,
00:21:32.140 you're just creating the uniparty consensus in the middle,
00:21:34.760 I think that's the public impression of what's happening.
00:21:38.920 Because it's one thing saying, well,
00:21:40.720 oh, well, I don't take that left-wing guy seriously
00:21:42.560 because he brings a particular ideological agenda,
00:21:45.000 or I don't take that right-wing guy seriously,
00:21:46.820 he's got a particular ideological agenda.
00:21:48.460 But there's a philosophical theory of truth called convergence theory.
00:21:52.780 It's like when everyone happens to have converged on the same point,
00:21:55.960 there's probably something true about it.
00:21:57.720 Well, I mean, bear in mind, we live in a society
00:21:59.440 where you couldn't have Calvin Robinson or Jonathan Pye
00:22:02.540 agree on what a woman is.
00:22:04.100 Correct.
00:22:04.660 So the fact that we can all agree on this
00:22:06.760 means it is more axiomatically true
00:22:08.700 than what a woman is. 1.00
00:22:10.360 Completely correct.
00:22:11.400 But moreover, the public is definitely just going to see this.
00:22:14.740 It's going to be hard for them to be like,
00:22:16.460 any passing glance,
00:22:17.740 like ex-conservative MP Robert Jenrick or whatever,
00:22:20.820 you're like, oh, right,
00:22:21.940 and another ex-conservative, ex-conservative.
00:22:24.060 It's going to build up in your mind, right,
00:22:25.580 reform are just the reformed Tories.
00:22:27.300 Right, okay, fine.
00:22:28.600 So the thing about that is
00:22:31.040 Nigel is actually taking a big gamble with these people as well.
00:22:34.160 So not only is he taking in a bunch of people
00:22:37.220 that he has called failures,
00:22:38.700 we literally just listen to him call them failures,
00:22:41.520 they are turncoats from their own parties.
00:22:44.040 Now, I'm not saying that you shouldn't be a turncoat from the Tories.
00:22:46.540 Obviously, you shouldn't be in the Tories.
00:22:48.180 But that's never a good look in and of itself.
00:22:50.700 And also, it looks like they're going to lose their seats.
00:22:54.240 So, as we can see,
00:22:55.880 Swallow Braverman's seat is hardly a done deal.
00:22:58.460 But then neither is Robert Jenrick's in Newark and Sherwood.
00:23:02.520 He's actually put himself in a minority position here.
00:23:05.180 Now, I don't know how many conservative or voters
00:23:09.240 either one's going to bring across.
00:23:10.420 But on paper, it might not be that many, actually.
00:23:14.640 So there's a couple of ways of looking at this.
00:23:16.340 The traditional political theory is that a long-established MP
00:23:21.100 with good name recognition,
00:23:23.000 that element is worth about 10% of the vote share.
00:23:26.200 Meaning that if that is correct,
00:23:27.920 what should happen is those two just neatly switch
00:23:30.080 and reform goes to 53% and conservatives go to 43% and they win.
00:23:34.480 If the broader political narrative that we often hear,
00:23:37.580 which is a bit lazy but are cited,
00:23:40.360 is that the votes of the conservatives and reform
00:23:42.480 are basically interchangeable.
00:23:44.420 If you get to the next election
00:23:45.860 and it looks like the conservatives genuinely
00:23:47.700 don't have any chance of winning,
00:23:49.260 and that is obviously true,
00:23:50.920 however, that hasn't filtered through to Normiland
00:23:52.560 and the boomers yet,
00:23:53.720 if that filters through,
00:23:55.520 then Jenrick should get 96% of the vote,
00:23:59.000 which I don't believe.
00:24:00.740 But you would expect him to win.
00:24:02.460 Well, about 50% of the vote, actually.
00:24:04.620 Well, if you had the reform vote to the...
00:24:06.560 Oh, sorry, that's chance of winning, isn't it?
00:24:08.020 Yeah.
00:24:08.440 Oh, no, you're right.
00:24:09.280 70-odd percent, yeah.
00:24:11.640 But about 50%.
00:24:12.880 But even then, that's a storming victory.
00:24:15.440 But this is the thing.
00:24:16.980 It's not guaranteed.
00:24:18.980 Because actually,
00:24:19.900 a lot of conservative voters are quite sticky.
00:24:22.380 People do tend to vote for the rosette
00:24:24.080 rather than the person.
00:24:25.840 And this has been a long-standing complaint
00:24:27.280 about British politics, 0.97
00:24:28.040 put a red rosette on a pig
00:24:29.320 and people will vote for it in the north.
00:24:30.780 Yeah, in the early 2000s,
00:24:31.960 they started putting the political logo
00:24:35.500 on the ballot paper.
00:24:36.800 Whereas before that,
00:24:37.760 you actually had to learn the name
00:24:39.500 of the candidate you wanted to vote for,
00:24:41.160 which I thought was a minimum hygiene level,
00:24:42.980 but they scrapped that.
00:24:43.880 Yeah.
00:24:44.540 So, obviously, it was team voting.
00:24:46.380 But I don't think anything could be taken as red.
00:24:48.800 And so, who knows what happens there?
00:24:50.720 But again, this is all a bit...
00:24:52.040 Just an aside on that.
00:24:55.620 So, I thought we'd talk about...
00:24:57.760 Oh, yeah.
00:24:58.480 Sorry.
00:24:58.720 There was one last thing as well.
00:24:59.900 We're expecting a Labour defection
00:25:01.180 to the Conservative Party,
00:25:03.520 to the Reform Party,
00:25:04.740 but it hasn't materialised yet.
00:25:06.080 I mean, maybe it'll have materialised.
00:25:07.560 Yeah, that was like 10 days ago, wasn't it?
00:25:08.820 Yeah, exactly.
00:25:09.180 That was muted.
00:25:10.040 Yeah.
00:25:10.520 This was on the same day
00:25:11.420 that Jemric was announced
00:25:13.860 to have defected unexpectedly by Kemi.
00:25:17.360 I mean, Raj really needs that defection.
00:25:19.480 He really does.
00:25:20.380 He should be going to whoever it is 0.99
00:25:21.840 and saying,
00:25:22.260 look, I'll make you...
00:25:22.960 What do you want?
00:25:23.480 Do you want Home Secretary?
00:25:24.440 Whatever.
00:25:24.940 Just come.
00:25:26.500 Yeah.
00:25:27.140 Because, at the moment,
00:25:28.260 it is just the Tory narrative.
00:25:29.800 And actually,
00:25:30.820 if Labour can persuade that person
00:25:32.460 to stay off the Reform reservation, 0.97
00:25:35.080 it severely weakens reform.
00:25:37.580 They're either going to be
00:25:38.660 a hereditary lord
00:25:39.780 or the next Home Secretary,
00:25:41.240 depending on how they negotiate this.
00:25:43.840 Anyway, so that's not turned up.
00:25:45.640 So, I thought this was
00:25:46.960 an interesting set of polls by YouGov.
00:25:50.260 Voting intention amongst
00:25:51.600 the poorest and richest.
00:25:53.680 Well, doesn't this tell us
00:25:55.580 everything we need to see?
00:25:57.100 So, amongst the poorest,
00:25:58.220 Reform are a third of the vote
00:25:59.900 and plus 17% have swung to them.
00:26:05.560 And you can see that Labour is down
00:26:07.320 among the poorest minus 18%.
00:26:09.800 The Greens...
00:26:11.440 So, it's clear from this
00:26:13.520 that amongst the working class of Britain,
00:26:16.960 the Conservatives and Labour
00:26:18.100 have lost 24 points
00:26:19.560 and that's gone to Reform and the Greens.
00:26:22.220 If you are an old school
00:26:25.800 working man socialist,
00:26:28.120 how the hell do you wrap your head around this?
00:26:30.980 Because the old school narrative
00:26:32.280 when I was growing up
00:26:33.120 is that the Tories are for the rich
00:26:34.700 and Labour's for the poor.
00:26:35.880 Correct.
00:26:37.100 Here, I mean, quite clearly,
00:26:39.340 the rich are voting with their feet.
00:26:41.260 The rich want Labour.
00:26:43.140 Correct.
00:26:43.320 Because they're doing very well
00:26:44.320 out of this system.
00:26:45.120 They like the big state.
00:26:46.220 They like the wealth transfers
00:26:47.340 that the big state are making.
00:26:49.800 And the poorest...
00:26:50.740 I mean, not only shocking
00:26:52.600 is Reform the highest, 0.97
00:26:53.880 it's that Conservatives are second.
00:26:55.660 Yes.
00:26:56.880 Labour have lost 80...
00:26:58.520 I mean, more than half their own vote share
00:27:00.260 with the working class.
00:27:01.680 They're not making it with the Greens.
00:27:03.160 They were the party of the working class.
00:27:05.540 Like, hereditary.
00:27:06.540 Yes.
00:27:06.900 My grandfather and my great-grandfather
00:27:08.580 and my father
00:27:09.160 have all voted Labour,
00:27:10.080 so I've got to vote Labour
00:27:11.140 because that's the way that it works.
00:27:13.160 Well, the clue is in the name.
00:27:14.180 Originally,
00:27:14.980 they were the party of Labour,
00:27:16.020 meaning work.
00:27:17.640 Correct.
00:27:17.820 Of course, the people...
00:27:19.020 And actually,
00:27:19.360 there was a really funny
00:27:20.260 little documentary
00:27:21.920 in the Blair era
00:27:23.940 where John Prescott
00:27:25.480 went around the country
00:27:26.420 and spoke to voters
00:27:27.700 to find out where they were.
00:27:29.600 And he was trying to explain
00:27:31.360 the concept of class
00:27:32.920 to this council estate woman.
00:27:36.560 And so they kind of
00:27:38.240 stared at him open-mouthed
00:27:39.460 and said,
00:27:39.840 well, what class are we then?
00:27:41.440 And he said,
00:27:41.960 well, I would say
00:27:42.500 that you're working class.
00:27:43.900 And they all responded,
00:27:45.040 but none of us work.
00:27:45.980 Interesting.
00:27:50.680 Labour become
00:27:51.420 the party of
00:27:53.060 the richest
00:27:53.920 who are doing well
00:27:54.460 out of the system
00:27:55.080 and people on welfare.
00:27:56.540 Correct.
00:27:57.200 But also,
00:27:57.760 if you think about it,
00:27:58.620 what Tony Blair's
00:27:59.300 great victory was
00:28:00.220 was to take
00:28:01.740 the party of the working class
00:28:02.900 and conquer the middle class. 0.50
00:28:04.280 Yes.
00:28:04.640 The single-degree-owning, 0.89
00:28:06.720 affluent,
00:28:07.720 suburb-dwelling
00:28:08.900 middle class.
00:28:10.000 And that is a cohort,
00:28:14.180 that is a constituency
00:28:15.000 that won't last forever.
00:28:16.700 They've got diverging interests.
00:28:19.100 The labour-educated middle class
00:28:20.840 are interested in virtue signalling
00:28:22.560 and exterminating the working class. 0.97
00:28:25.220 They hate, 0.95
00:28:25.960 they hate the working class.
00:28:27.960 Because the working class 1.00
00:28:28.780 don't have their airy-fairy morals
00:28:30.520 and they don't understand
00:28:31.620 they're meant to be politically correct
00:28:32.780 in order to be a good person.
00:28:34.040 And so the working class 0.98
00:28:34.980 to the middle class
00:28:35.860 are cringe,
00:28:37.200 they hate them, 1.00
00:28:37.740 they're an embarrassment, 1.00
00:28:39.020 they're the football hooligans, 0.99
00:28:40.360 they want to see these people
00:28:41.560 essentially educated
00:28:42.620 out of existence.
00:28:44.000 They think,
00:28:44.980 this is why Tony Blair's
00:28:45.780 education, education, education,
00:28:47.180 I can make everyone like me.
00:28:49.420 That's what his plan was.
00:28:50.760 I can put everyone
00:28:51.620 in the same class as me.
00:28:52.740 We can get rid
00:28:53.800 of the working class.
00:28:55.140 Now the working class, 1.00
00:28:56.100 as you can see
00:28:56.580 by the very large number
00:28:57.880 of them who are voting reform
00:28:58.780 and conservatives,
00:29:00.560 are not going away,
00:29:02.160 actually.
00:29:02.860 They're not necessarily interested
00:29:04.420 in joining the labour plantation.
00:29:05.720 Well, they're only going away
00:29:06.980 from labour.
00:29:07.660 Exactly,
00:29:08.060 they're just going away
00:29:08.660 from labour.
00:29:09.300 And what's interesting
00:29:10.140 is a much smaller number
00:29:12.180 went to the Greens.
00:29:13.000 So that's the lefty vote,
00:29:14.880 right?
00:29:15.280 So the people who have fled
00:29:16.920 the Labour Party
00:29:17.660 at the moment,
00:29:18.160 18%,
00:29:19.240 I doubt very many conservatives
00:29:22.240 went to the Greens,
00:29:23.500 right?
00:29:24.040 I imagine that maybe 1%
00:29:25.680 of the conservatives
00:29:26.560 went to the Greens,
00:29:27.240 but that's the number
00:29:28.080 of lefties who have left
00:29:29.260 the Labour Party.
00:29:29.940 That's the Corbynista vote,
00:29:31.360 right?
00:29:31.940 Who are going to the Greens
00:29:32.800 because your party
00:29:34.300 is just not a thing.
00:29:36.100 But the rest of it
00:29:36.820 is going to be
00:29:37.500 socially conservative,
00:29:38.940 working class Northerners.
00:29:40.780 This reminds me
00:29:41.900 of that thing
00:29:42.620 on Rotten Tomatoes
00:29:43.720 where they got the
00:29:44.440 critic score
00:29:45.260 and the audience score.
00:29:46.240 And the perfect film
00:29:48.060 is the one that has
00:29:48.780 extremely low critic score
00:29:50.760 and extremely high audience.
00:29:52.380 Correct.
00:29:53.200 Because you know
00:29:53.760 it's not going to be woke
00:29:54.560 and it's actually quite good.
00:29:55.920 This is like a version of that
00:29:57.360 and Reform do come out
00:29:58.980 very well on this.
00:29:59.940 They are not appealing
00:30:01.800 to the people
00:30:02.340 who are doing well
00:30:02.920 out of this current
00:30:03.580 broken system.
00:30:04.580 They're appealing to the people
00:30:05.780 who are not doing well
00:30:06.700 out of it.
00:30:07.620 And the conservatives
00:30:08.560 are kind of level
00:30:09.580 and actually the Greens
00:30:11.460 come out as the worst 0.78
00:30:12.780 because they are
00:30:14.320 disproportionately favoured
00:30:16.440 by the
00:30:17.140 sort of 0.62
00:30:18.660 smug twats 1.00
00:30:19.680 as it were.
00:30:20.240 Yes.
00:30:20.560 But notice
00:30:21.120 again another thing here.
00:30:23.120 The working class
00:30:24.180 52%
00:30:25.640 voting for
00:30:26.400 right-wing parties.
00:30:28.560 The working class
00:30:30.000 42%
00:30:32.880 voting for
00:30:33.700 left-wing parties.
00:30:35.080 And that's including
00:30:36.260 the 15% 0.99
00:30:37.300 who are still
00:30:38.120 in the Labour Party.
00:30:38.920 Now
00:30:39.160 whether they are actually
00:30:41.240 left-wingers
00:30:42.140 as we understand
00:30:42.700 in the modern parlance
00:30:43.560 the working class
00:30:44.960 are much more reactionary.
00:30:46.780 They always have been
00:30:47.540 and they always will be
00:30:48.960 I suspect.
00:30:49.800 But then look at the richest.
00:30:51.440 That's a really
00:30:52.280 even breakdown.
00:30:53.620 Right.
00:30:54.080 Reform
00:30:54.600 are nearly
00:30:56.100 14 points ahead
00:30:57.780 no more than 14 points
00:30:59.920 16 points ahead
00:31:01.020 of the conservatives.
00:31:02.060 That's a really clear margin
00:31:03.760 in the working class.
00:31:06.040 Labour are only
00:31:06.660 four points ahead
00:31:07.360 of the Lib Dems
00:31:08.020 who themselves
00:31:08.500 are only three points
00:31:09.340 ahead of the Reform Party
00:31:10.280 who are the lowest
00:31:11.380 in the elites.
00:31:12.940 So the elite idea
00:31:14.580 that is completely shattered
00:31:16.140 as your point was earlier
00:31:18.420 it is not the elites
00:31:20.180 who are making
00:31:20.760 the future here
00:31:21.660 it is actually
00:31:22.320 the working class
00:31:23.040 who are making
00:31:24.340 the realignment happen
00:31:25.420 and the elites
00:31:26.260 haven't caught up.
00:31:26.880 But with a shattering
00:31:27.820 like this
00:31:28.380 you can understand
00:31:29.040 why they think
00:31:29.880 oh we just got to
00:31:30.540 piece ourselves
00:31:31.120 back together
00:31:31.700 the elite coherence
00:31:33.100 just needs to reform
00:31:34.120 and then we're golden.
00:31:35.360 Exactly.
00:31:36.100 So what Farage should do
00:31:37.340 is just lean into
00:31:38.420 whatever heavily
00:31:39.180 the conservative
00:31:40.520 working class voters
00:31:42.760 around the country
00:31:43.880 are interested in
00:31:44.940 and that is obviously
00:31:45.640 immigration.
00:31:46.300 Well there's another aspect
00:31:47.580 to this as well.
00:31:49.120 These polls
00:31:49.700 they only show you
00:31:50.980 the people who answered
00:31:51.820 I'm going to vote
00:31:52.440 for this or that.
00:31:54.080 What they don't show you
00:31:55.100 is all the people
00:31:55.780 who said
00:31:56.240 I don't care
00:31:57.040 not interested 1.00
00:31:57.720 stupid question 1.00
00:31:58.620 I don't vote 1.00
00:31:59.380 because those people
00:32:00.380 did show up
00:32:01.300 and vote for Brexit.
00:32:02.500 And that's about
00:32:02.940 a third of the country
00:32:03.660 it's about 30%
00:32:04.600 because a good
00:32:05.780 a good
00:32:06.300 election
00:32:07.220 is about 71% turnout
00:32:09.600 so 29% didn't turn out
00:32:11.300 a bad one
00:32:12.300 can be literally
00:32:13.000 59%
00:32:14.040 something like that
00:32:15.020 where you've got nearly
00:32:16.080 40% of the country
00:32:17.080 That is a huge chunk
00:32:18.460 of voters
00:32:19.060 who are just waiting
00:32:20.180 for something
00:32:20.840 credible to turn up.
00:32:22.320 Exactly.
00:32:23.200 And so the point being
00:32:24.520 ignore the elites
00:32:25.860 you don't need to take in
00:32:27.200 all of these other elites
00:32:27.980 that's not what people
00:32:28.740 are voting on
00:32:29.340 as you pointed out
00:32:30.560 they're not voting
00:32:31.160 on elite credibility
00:32:31.940 otherwise they wouldn't
00:32:33.080 be voting for Farage
00:32:34.040 he wouldn't be a credible
00:32:35.860 tenured politician
00:32:37.560 and yet still
00:32:39.280 working class people
00:32:40.600 are nearly twice as much
00:32:42.360 as the next competitor.
00:32:43.240 I suspect that his
00:32:44.660 vanity has led him
00:32:45.780 to believe that he has
00:32:46.520 joined the elites
00:32:47.400 and that's why he's
00:32:48.240 now credible.
00:32:49.160 Correct.
00:32:49.820 And the elite opinion
00:32:51.060 actually I think
00:32:52.040 is going to end up
00:32:52.660 following this
00:32:53.100 I mean 16%
00:32:53.940 that's a plus 6 swing
00:32:55.520 between December
00:32:57.260 and January
00:32:57.880 for the richest
00:32:59.060 in the country
00:32:59.680 to reform.
00:33:00.900 Elite opinion
00:33:01.560 will follow
00:33:02.460 what happens
00:33:03.360 because what's happening
00:33:04.760 is that the working
00:33:06.040 class people
00:33:06.620 are most
00:33:07.320 closely affected
00:33:09.000 by the problems.
00:33:10.340 The elites
00:33:10.880 are affected
00:33:12.320 far further down the line
00:33:13.480 but I'm sure
00:33:13.960 they're feeling the pinch
00:33:14.800 of the higher
00:33:15.520 electricity bills
00:33:16.200 the high petrol prices
00:33:16.920 the high grocery prices
00:33:17.800 the high house prices
00:33:18.860 they're saying
00:33:19.160 okay yeah we're doing well
00:33:20.520 but oh my god
00:33:21.520 that is a
00:33:21.980 you know
00:33:22.480 Well certainly the ones
00:33:23.240 who've got their own business
00:33:24.000 as opposed to being
00:33:24.940 a crango boss 1.00
00:33:26.080 on 300 grand a year.
00:33:27.340 Exactly.
00:33:27.880 If you're not just being
00:33:29.120 paid by the government
00:33:29.900 which you know
00:33:31.820 only 18% of the people
00:33:33.040 are on government wages
00:33:34.420 then you want
00:33:35.680 even if you're doing
00:33:36.600 very well
00:33:36.940 you must be looking
00:33:37.420 and going
00:33:37.680 okay this is
00:33:38.360 starting to pinch
00:33:39.240 maybe that Nigel Farage
00:33:40.780 fellow has a point.
00:33:42.520 So anyway
00:33:42.800 that's the voting
00:33:44.240 by income
00:33:44.900 and then you've got
00:33:45.700 voting by education
00:33:46.660 and this again
00:33:48.220 not terribly surprising
00:33:49.400 people of low education 0.98
00:33:51.840 levels
00:33:52.080 and who've got
00:33:52.540 GCSEs
00:33:53.480 42%
00:33:54.720 for Nigel Farage
00:33:55.700 why?
00:33:56.180 because they're not
00:33:57.340 trying to bring about 1.00
00:33:58.260 some stupid 1.00
00:33:59.860 abstract liberal utopia 1.00
00:34:01.440 what they're saying is
00:34:02.540 I want my country back
00:34:03.760 and that's
00:34:04.920 from Farage's messaging
00:34:05.920 and it's resonated
00:34:06.840 and again
00:34:07.480 look at Labour
00:34:08.120 look at Labour
00:34:09.540 with the working man
00:34:10.520 who didn't go to university
00:34:11.640 right
00:34:12.260 12%
00:34:13.420 they haven't been
00:34:15.820 indoctrinated enough
00:34:16.720 exactly
00:34:17.420 but also
00:34:18.680 they don't represent
00:34:19.920 those people anymore
00:34:20.880 they used to be
00:34:22.100 the party of the working man
00:34:23.240 so you always used to have
00:34:23.980 regional accents
00:34:24.920 on Labour leaders
00:34:26.600 but now you have
00:34:27.820 this
00:34:28.420 you know
00:34:28.860 very indistinguishable
00:34:30.600 like mono accent
00:34:33.280 I mean
00:34:33.660 Michael Foote
00:34:34.820 must be
00:34:35.340 turning in his grave
00:34:36.640 with numbers like this
00:34:37.820 all of them
00:34:38.300 I mean
00:34:38.540 God
00:34:38.840 can you even imagine
00:34:39.640 but even then
00:34:40.720 they've lost a lot
00:34:41.640 of elite credibility
00:34:42.400 because what do the Greens do
00:34:43.780 they're going to one up you
00:34:44.640 no
00:34:45.520 you said
00:34:46.660 we're for insane
00:34:47.480 lefty liberalism
00:34:48.340 yeah
00:34:48.480 the Greens
00:34:49.660 are only slightly
00:34:51.200 off Labour
00:34:51.760 because the Greens
00:34:53.000 are the student
00:34:53.680 politician vote
00:34:54.460 and Labour
00:34:55.380 are a bunch of
00:34:56.120 student politicians
00:34:56.920 they've been
00:34:57.680 yeah they all are
00:34:58.520 they've been playing
00:34:59.420 on this for a long time
00:35:00.420 and the Greens
00:35:01.140 are like
00:35:01.380 yeah but you're still
00:35:02.080 conceding something
00:35:02.920 to reality
00:35:03.580 we want the fiction
00:35:05.280 we want John Lennon's
00:35:06.640 Imagine
00:35:06.940 and Labour's like
00:35:07.500 okay but we are
00:35:08.480 a party of government
00:35:09.260 at the moment
00:35:09.840 and we've got to be
00:35:10.840 honest with you
00:35:11.360 we have to do this
00:35:12.160 this and this
00:35:12.520 and the Greens are like
00:35:13.060 well I don't want that
00:35:14.340 you know
00:35:14.640 and then
00:35:16.120 you've got the 1.00
00:35:17.420 stupid student lefties 1.00
00:35:18.660 who are like 1.00
00:35:18.960 yeah no I agree with that
00:35:20.260 well you do see a bit of that
00:35:21.640 so Andy Burnham
00:35:22.360 came out the other day
00:35:23.240 and he's
00:35:23.660 oh no no
00:35:24.620 it's a separate point
00:35:25.640 he came out
00:35:27.140 and he said
00:35:27.800 I don't know
00:35:28.500 why we're listening
00:35:29.160 to markets
00:35:29.880 you know
00:35:30.280 why are we having
00:35:30.880 to listen to these
00:35:31.500 bond people all the time
00:35:32.600 well the answer is
00:35:33.700 because they're
00:35:34.080 financing your government
00:35:34.940 but he dipped
00:35:36.340 into the whole
00:35:37.680 let's just go
00:35:38.920 with fantasy land
00:35:40.140 but he got reined in
00:35:41.600 when somebody pointed out
00:35:42.740 no you literally
00:35:43.820 cannot pay pensions
00:35:45.100 if you ignore the bond market
00:35:46.740 so he had to walk it back
00:35:47.840 the difference with the Greens
00:35:49.160 is that they can say 0.99
00:35:50.840 something ridiculous 0.98
00:35:51.520 and then continue 0.99
00:35:52.420 to inhabit that space
00:35:53.480 because nobody's going to
00:35:54.380 come along and say
00:35:54.940 no it doesn't work like that
00:35:55.860 well the reason
00:35:57.160 I think this is an interesting
00:35:58.340 way of looking at this
00:36:00.180 as well
00:36:00.520 is that
00:36:01.300 there are lots of people
00:36:02.520 who don't have
00:36:03.260 higher education
00:36:04.160 who earn lots of money
00:36:05.540 plumbers
00:36:07.100 builders
00:36:07.820 small businessmen
00:36:09.180 who literally just
00:36:10.400 enterprising young men
00:36:12.160 in council estates
00:36:13.320 who are like
00:36:13.700 no I'm going to get
00:36:14.600 an apprenticeship
00:36:15.020 get my job as a plumber
00:36:16.220 set up a little
00:36:16.820 LLC
00:36:17.660 you know
00:36:18.160 limited liability company
00:36:19.200 and I'm just going to
00:36:20.640 earn 100k a year
00:36:21.500 fixing stuff
00:36:22.240 right
00:36:22.500 okay you've got
00:36:23.520 low education level
00:36:24.660 officially by their numbers
00:36:25.920 but look how conservative
00:36:27.260 they are
00:36:27.740 63%
00:36:28.980 yes
00:36:29.640 63%
00:36:31.880 not even close
00:36:32.720 is it
00:36:33.040 it's just like
00:36:33.880 the fact that conservatives
00:36:36.020 have got nearly twice
00:36:36.880 as much with labour
00:36:37.600 it's because
00:36:38.360 no look
00:36:38.980 I don't care 1.00
00:36:39.600 about your stupid 1.00
00:36:40.660 abstract liberal 1.00
00:36:41.400 rationalisations
00:36:42.040 about human rights
00:36:42.680 and the SHR
00:36:43.140 I want my country
00:36:44.500 to be for me
00:36:45.440 and my children
00:36:46.440 and I want it
00:36:47.160 to be good
00:36:47.800 right
00:36:48.220 so just nowhere on this
00:36:49.940 nowhere
00:36:50.540 right
00:36:51.280 it's only in
00:36:52.500 the very high educated
00:36:53.820 abstract
00:36:54.600 it just goes to show
00:36:55.580 that everything they believe
00:36:56.460 is a luxury belief
00:36:57.580 and I presume that
00:36:58.300 9% has to be
00:36:59.680 the
00:37:00.040 Muslim vote
00:37:01.380 element of their coalition
00:37:02.640 I imagine it is
00:37:03.780 I imagine
00:37:05.400 in fact I hadn't even
00:37:06.280 thought about that
00:37:06.720 but that's probably true
00:37:07.320 and then you've got
00:37:08.280 men and women
00:37:08.700 and this is another
00:37:09.640 very interesting thing
00:37:10.700 now among men
00:37:11.740 not surprising that
00:37:13.200 men are overwhelmingly
00:37:14.380 reformed
00:37:14.940 right
00:37:15.120 men have just gone
00:37:15.900 not interested in the
00:37:17.460 Labour Party
00:37:17.960 but interestingly
00:37:20.000 they've lost
00:37:21.160 conservatives as well
00:37:22.200 and the Greens have got
00:37:22.980 you know
00:37:23.240 this 13% soy boys 0.51
00:37:25.060 but look at women 0.99
00:37:26.100 reform are the most
00:37:27.140 popular among women
00:37:28.040 and then it's the
00:37:30.200 conservatives
00:37:30.700 I take some comfort
00:37:34.420 in this
00:37:34.980 than that
00:37:35.520 if you watch a lot
00:37:36.780 of American politics
00:37:37.800 you'd expect that gap
00:37:38.860 to be bigger
00:37:39.620 yes
00:37:40.220 at least
00:37:41.200 there is a difference
00:37:42.260 but at least it's not
00:37:43.040 wild
00:37:43.440 so well done British 0.92
00:37:44.660 women for being less 1.00
00:37:45.560 insane than your 0.99
00:37:46.440 American counterparts 1.00
00:37:47.900 correct
00:37:48.480 still you know
00:37:49.700 40%
00:37:50.500 43% of women
00:37:51.520 are right wing
00:37:52.320 by this metric
00:37:53.100 right
00:37:53.420 yeah
00:37:53.640 and even then
00:37:54.360 the sort of like
00:37:55.120 the Liberal
00:37:55.660 Liberal Democrats
00:37:56.900 are kind of their own
00:37:57.780 thing
00:37:58.180 because the Liberal
00:37:59.080 Democrats are actually
00:37:59.880 in a position
00:38:00.360 where they can be
00:38:01.180 left wing on any
00:38:01.840 issue they want
00:38:02.440 but they can also be
00:38:03.620 like classically
00:38:04.440 liberal Thatcherites
00:38:05.700 whenever it suits them
00:38:07.460 right
00:38:07.660 so I tend to try
00:38:09.600 and discount the Lib Dems
00:38:10.680 because honestly
00:38:11.880 I don't really think
00:38:12.620 they really believe
00:38:13.400 anything
00:38:13.660 I think it's a social
00:38:14.580 club
00:38:14.860 right
00:38:15.260 I think it's a
00:38:16.260 you know
00:38:16.800 we're the southwest
00:38:17.400 of England
00:38:17.840 and that's how we
00:38:18.480 identify
00:38:18.880 so the fact that
00:38:20.220 the actual
00:38:21.940 like libtardism 1.00
00:38:23.300 of the Greens
00:38:24.240 and Labour Party
00:38:24.920 is actually outshined
00:38:26.580 by
00:38:27.100 reforming conservatives
00:38:28.220 among women
00:38:29.040 and let alone
00:38:30.180 among men
00:38:30.780 obviously
00:38:31.260 but that's
00:38:32.340 what is Labour
00:38:34.280 doing right
00:38:34.920 they've just lost
00:38:35.640 everyone
00:38:36.160 just absolutely
00:38:37.200 everyone
00:38:37.440 so the coalition
00:38:38.060 Tony Blair built
00:38:38.940 has not
00:38:39.560 not survived
00:38:41.640 right
00:38:41.960 and so let's
00:38:42.780 have a look
00:38:43.080 at this
00:38:43.820 right
00:38:44.000 so stats for
00:38:44.640 lefties
00:38:45.000 like well
00:38:45.880 the Labour Party
00:38:48.480 have only gone
00:38:48.840 3.5
00:38:49.580 out of the
00:38:50.080 17.4
00:38:50.800 of this one
00:38:51.380 YouGov poll
00:38:52.060 have only gone
00:38:52.880 3.5 to reform
00:38:54.000 and 6.2 to Greens
00:38:55.520 so contrary to
00:38:56.880 popular belief
00:38:57.500 Labour is not
00:38:58.100 struggling in the polls
00:38:58.740 because they're losing
00:38:59.280 votes to reform
00:39:00.300 even if they've
00:39:01.200 recovered all the votes
00:39:01.920 lost to reform
00:39:02.500 they'd still be on
00:39:03.060 21 cent
00:39:03.680 down double digits
00:39:04.540 instead they've
00:39:05.420 lost the bulk
00:39:06.060 of the votes
00:39:07.060 to the left
00:39:07.620 it's like
00:39:07.920 that feels like
00:39:08.540 cope to me
00:39:09.140 because the left
00:39:10.020 isn't in the
00:39:10.520 bloody top of the polls
00:39:11.540 like sorry
00:39:13.140 I just don't
00:39:13.820 I just don't
00:39:14.260 really agree
00:39:14.840 actually
00:39:15.760 considering what
00:39:16.660 we've seen
00:39:17.160 I don't
00:39:18.000 I don't think
00:39:18.580 that's true
00:39:19.140 right
00:39:19.720 I don't think
00:39:20.300 working class
00:39:20.800 people are going
00:39:21.360 left
00:39:21.620 now this is
00:39:22.340 the election
00:39:23.060 map from
00:39:23.600 2024
00:39:25.360 I mean to be
00:39:26.100 fair
00:39:26.340 the narrow
00:39:27.580 claim there
00:39:28.260 is the subset
00:39:29.060 of working
00:39:29.600 class people
00:39:30.280 who vote
00:39:31.680 Labour
00:39:32.260 by the last
00:39:33.640 election
00:39:34.100 some of them
00:39:34.640 appealed off
00:39:35.320 I mean
00:39:35.700 but yeah
00:39:36.220 it's a weak
00:39:36.600 claim
00:39:36.880 but he's
00:39:37.740 saying the
00:39:38.120 majority of
00:39:38.580 them have
00:39:38.820 gone to
00:39:39.140 the left
00:39:39.600 and it's
00:39:39.880 like no
00:39:40.100 I don't
00:39:40.320 think
00:39:40.460 that's
00:39:40.640 true
00:39:40.860 because I
00:39:41.720 mean look
00:39:41.960 at all
00:39:42.140 this area
00:39:42.560 right
00:39:42.780 this
00:39:43.060 the north
00:39:43.740 of England
00:39:44.120 that is
00:39:44.780 almost rock
00:39:45.840 solid
00:39:46.280 Labour
00:39:46.960 right
00:39:47.360 and as well
00:39:47.740 they called
00:39:48.120 it the
00:39:48.440 the red
00:39:49.320 war for a
00:39:49.740 reason
00:39:49.960 they called it
00:39:50.560 the red
00:39:50.780 war for a
00:39:51.140 reason
00:39:51.300 right
00:39:51.540 and again
00:39:52.040 parts of
00:39:52.440 Scotland
00:39:52.680 they're all
00:39:53.240 solidly Labour
00:39:53.920 right
00:39:54.520 now this is
00:39:55.660 just a
00:39:56.180 moderately
00:39:56.680 decent
00:39:57.340 reform
00:39:57.780 poll
00:39:58.100 like 31%
00:39:59.120 yep
00:39:59.600 that's that's
00:40:00.200 not terribly
00:40:00.900 great
00:40:01.300 but what
00:40:02.120 happened
00:40:02.560 they didn't
00:40:03.460 go to the
00:40:03.900 Greens
00:40:04.300 they didn't
00:40:04.980 go to the
00:40:05.340 Lib Dems
00:40:05.900 no they
00:40:06.320 went to
00:40:06.600 reform
00:40:06.980 right
00:40:07.400 the working
00:40:08.180 class
00:40:08.720 have gone
00:40:09.640 to reform
00:40:10.260 so Nigel
00:40:11.280 Farage's
00:40:11.860 core vote
00:40:12.680 that has
00:40:13.120 pushed him
00:40:13.560 over the
00:40:13.880 edge
00:40:14.160 that's beyond
00:40:14.760 his personal
00:40:15.820 magnetism
00:40:16.560 Farage has
00:40:17.020 probably got
00:40:17.300 about 10
00:40:17.780 15%
00:40:18.560 of just
00:40:19.220 I'm Nigel
00:40:19.740 Farage and
00:40:20.180 I'm
00:40:20.320 popular
00:40:20.680 but the
00:40:21.700 rest of
00:40:22.060 it is
00:40:22.500 built up
00:40:22.920 of
00:40:23.200 disenfranchised
00:40:24.240 working class
00:40:25.100 voters who
00:40:25.600 otherwise
00:40:26.040 historically would
00:40:27.040 have voted
00:40:27.360 for the Labour
00:40:27.760 Party
00:40:28.080 going straight
00:40:28.960 over to
00:40:29.260 reform
00:40:29.500 saying no
00:40:29.860 this is
00:40:30.120 the patriotic
00:40:30.700 party
00:40:31.000 and I'm
00:40:31.240 a patriot
00:40:31.620 I mean
00:40:32.080 the difference
00:40:32.540 between the
00:40:33.100 first map
00:40:33.540 and the
00:40:33.820 second map
00:40:34.340 is the
00:40:34.660 second map
00:40:35.320 yeah that
00:40:36.880 one looks
00:40:37.620 like a
00:40:38.380 rash where
00:40:39.180 the cream
00:40:39.640 has really
00:40:40.140 started to
00:40:40.760 work and
00:40:41.580 there's just
00:40:42.120 one or two
00:40:42.640 blotches 1.00
00:40:43.020 left but you
00:40:43.560 know it's
00:40:43.900 going to be
00:40:44.160 gone by
00:40:44.700 by the time
00:40:45.780 you need to
00:40:46.080 go to the
00:40:46.360 beach or
00:40:46.860 put in your
00:40:47.360 bikini
00:40:47.680 whatever it
00:40:48.160 is
00:40:48.320 correct
00:40:49.020 right
00:40:49.560 and so
00:40:51.540 even in
00:40:52.060 Manchester
00:40:52.500 right
00:40:53.020 Manchester
00:40:53.820 Labour
00:40:54.240 stronghold
00:40:54.660 for God
00:40:55.240 knows how
00:40:55.600 long
00:40:55.880 right
00:40:56.540 but no
00:40:58.480 Manchester's
00:40:59.620 going in
00:40:59.880 form
00:40:59.980 I think
00:41:00.440 he's got
00:41:00.620 a map
00:41:00.900 Manchester
00:41:01.200 is going
00:41:01.600 in
00:41:01.800 form
00:41:02.020 yeah I
00:41:02.280 think
00:41:02.400 he's got
00:41:03.340 a map
00:41:03.660 somewhere
00:41:03.880 but obviously
00:41:04.260 haven't got
00:41:04.540 it
00:41:04.680 but here's
00:41:05.220 a find out
00:41:05.720 now
00:41:06.000 poll
00:41:06.560 but voting
00:41:07.600 intention
00:41:07.960 in Manchester
00:41:08.440 it's like
00:41:08.760 sorry
00:41:08.980 a lot
00:41:09.740 of that
00:41:10.000 36%
00:41:10.740 would have
00:41:11.780 been Labour
00:41:12.240 right
00:41:12.840 oh yeah
00:41:13.380 now a lot
00:41:13.900 of the Greens
00:41:14.480 18%
00:41:15.080 would have
00:41:15.320 been Labour
00:41:15.640 as well
00:41:16.140 sorry
00:41:18.120 I really
00:41:19.180 have to
00:41:20.120 say
00:41:20.640 even if
00:41:21.180 the YouGov
00:41:21.580 stats are
00:41:22.080 saying that
00:41:22.600 I don't
00:41:23.100 think they're
00:41:23.440 capturing
00:41:23.800 what's
00:41:24.060 actually
00:41:24.420 happening
00:41:24.640 even if
00:41:25.340 you add
00:41:25.840 all of
00:41:27.100 the Greens
00:41:27.600 onto the
00:41:28.400 Labour
00:41:28.600 position
00:41:29.040 it doesn't
00:41:29.660 get you to
00:41:30.040 what Labour
00:41:30.800 have historically
00:41:31.400 done in
00:41:31.740 Manchester
00:41:32.060 that was
00:41:32.460 their city
00:41:33.260 yeah
00:41:33.800 you couldn't
00:41:34.800 take it off
00:41:35.160 I mean
00:41:35.400 literally
00:41:35.760 it was an
00:41:36.080 industrial
00:41:36.560 heartland
00:41:37.280 the Labour
00:41:38.140 party
00:41:38.460 was founded
00:41:39.120 in this
00:41:39.580 country
00:41:39.820 to represent
00:41:40.440 industrial
00:41:41.000 workers
00:41:41.460 which is
00:41:42.060 why it's
00:41:42.340 always been
00:41:42.580 a basically
00:41:43.060 pseudo-socialist
00:41:44.160 commie
00:41:44.460 party
00:41:44.820 they think
00:41:46.400 of them
00:41:46.620 as being
00:41:46.860 the proletarian
00:41:47.840 the proletariat
00:41:49.240 and that was
00:41:49.760 what they're
00:41:49.980 for
00:41:50.120 well Nigel
00:41:50.900 Farage
00:41:51.260 now has
00:41:51.660 those voters
00:41:52.260 and so
00:41:52.940 what do
00:41:53.220 they do
00:41:53.680 right
00:41:54.080 so anyway
00:41:54.920 what we can
00:41:56.720 see from
00:41:57.100 all of this
00:41:57.540 is complete
00:41:58.560 desperation
00:41:59.080 from the
00:41:59.440 Labour
00:41:59.600 party
00:41:59.940 Labour
00:42:01.000 are on
00:42:01.520 borrowed
00:42:01.880 time
00:42:02.340 everyone
00:42:03.020 hates
00:42:03.580 them 0.96
00:42:03.800 here's
00:42:04.320 just
00:42:04.500 the
00:42:04.720 latest
00:42:05.120 approval
00:42:05.620 rating
00:42:05.920 for the
00:42:06.420 government
00:42:06.720 at the
00:42:07.240 moment
00:42:07.480 68%
00:42:08.780 disapprove
00:42:09.860 13%
00:42:11.080 approve
00:42:11.660 18%
00:42:13.040 no opinion
00:42:14.080 either way
00:42:14.820 right
00:42:15.160 I mean
00:42:16.060 the last
00:42:16.720 time we
00:42:16.960 checked
00:42:17.120 I think
00:42:17.340 it was
00:42:17.440 about
00:42:17.600 15%
00:42:18.260 disapprove
00:42:19.120 so that's
00:42:19.960 gone down
00:42:20.540 it's just
00:42:21.440 never
00:42:21.680 and as I
00:42:23.000 remember from
00:42:23.360 two episodes
00:42:23.860 ago
00:42:24.080 I think
00:42:25.160 you said
00:42:25.420 that 18% 0.96
00:42:26.100 of the
00:42:26.420 British
00:42:26.580 population
00:42:27.040 worked for
00:42:27.420 the state
00:42:27.860 correct
00:42:28.240 so only
00:42:30.140 about
00:42:30.400 two-thirds
00:42:30.960 of them
00:42:31.460 agree that
00:42:32.200 Labour
00:42:32.400 are doing
00:42:32.700 a good
00:42:32.900 job
00:42:33.240 maybe
00:42:34.000 three-quarters
00:42:34.640 should we
00:42:34.940 say
00:42:35.100 but he's
00:42:35.860 losing the
00:42:36.840 NHS
00:42:37.200 workers
00:42:37.680 as well
00:42:38.100 and we
00:42:39.600 see the
00:42:39.860 further
00:42:40.040 collapse
00:42:40.400 everywhere
00:42:40.840 right
00:42:41.080 here's
00:42:41.360 Scotland
00:42:41.680 again
00:42:42.200 Labour
00:42:42.660 if you
00:42:43.140 look
00:42:43.340 back
00:42:44.460 previously
00:42:44.900 where was
00:42:45.200 that map
00:42:45.640 Labour
00:42:46.480 does great
00:42:46.980 in Scotland
00:42:47.380 right
00:42:48.000 but no
00:42:49.480 not anymore
00:42:50.020 Labour
00:42:51.880 it's between
00:42:53.120 the SNP
00:42:53.580 and reform
00:42:54.000 now in
00:42:54.640 this
00:42:54.900 in Fife
00:42:55.880 where Labour
00:42:57.140 their votes
00:42:57.740 collapsed
00:42:58.100 and the
00:42:58.380 Conservative
00:42:58.720 vote
00:42:59.000 has also
00:42:59.760 collapsed
00:43:00.140 now
00:43:00.320 Conservatives
00:43:00.800 never did
00:43:01.120 great
00:43:01.340 in Scotland
00:43:01.740 but reform
00:43:02.760 just storming
00:43:03.320 in there
00:43:03.540 with over
00:43:04.020 a quarter
00:43:04.380 of the
00:43:04.660 votes
00:43:04.940 putting them
00:43:05.420 as the
00:43:05.640 second
00:43:05.860 party
00:43:06.200 there
00:43:06.420 so right
00:43:07.060 so our
00:43:07.560 theory
00:43:07.960 that it
00:43:08.760 is
00:43:08.960 the
00:43:09.560 realignment
00:43:10.000 is being
00:43:10.440 done by
00:43:10.820 the voting
00:43:11.180 public
00:43:11.500 is correct
00:43:12.140 I think
00:43:12.540 and this
00:43:14.040 is them
00:43:14.360 in Wales
00:43:14.780 10%
00:43:15.900 in Wales
00:43:16.620 10%
00:43:18.840 again it's
00:43:19.280 down to
00:43:19.580 the quote
00:43:20.580 unquote
00:43:20.780 nationalist
00:43:21.140 party
00:43:21.540 and reform
00:43:22.660 so
00:43:24.220 yeah
00:43:24.940 and people
00:43:25.760 don't understand
00:43:26.500 what Plague
00:43:26.920 Cymru actually
00:43:27.420 stands for
00:43:27.940 as we've
00:43:28.240 seen in
00:43:28.520 previous
00:43:28.800 episodes
00:43:29.180 but 10%
00:43:30.680 that is
00:43:31.780 brutal
00:43:32.080 and this
00:43:32.960 was one of
00:43:33.460 Tony Blair's
00:43:33.980 bright ideas
00:43:34.680 was devolution
00:43:35.340 to the
00:43:35.880 regions
00:43:36.800 to Scotland
00:43:37.320 and Wales
00:43:37.920 it got him
00:43:39.700 short term
00:43:40.720 popularity
00:43:41.320 but he
00:43:42.100 kicked the
00:43:42.440 can down
00:43:42.860 the road
00:43:43.160 over the
00:43:43.480 cliff
00:43:43.740 for the
00:43:44.020 future
00:43:44.680 Labour
00:43:44.920 leaders
00:43:45.260 oh yeah
00:43:46.100 absolutely
00:43:46.780 Labour is a
00:43:47.640 dead party
00:43:48.120 I mean they
00:43:48.360 get nothing
00:43:48.860 you know
00:43:50.220 like how
00:43:50.780 many
00:43:50.940 have 96
00:43:51.940 seats
00:43:52.240 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
00:43:53.340 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
00:43:54.540 seats
00:43:54.980 doesn't even register
00:43:56.160 it's going to be
00:43:56.540 that's only with
00:43:57.460 the PR element
00:43:58.160 that kicks in
00:43:58.720 oh yeah
00:43:59.400 good point
00:43:59.920 but it's going to
00:44:01.000 be like you know
00:44:01.600 in Cardiff
00:44:02.460 there'll be a
00:44:02.920 couple of tiny
00:44:03.460 like constituencies
00:44:04.280 that don't show
00:44:05.120 up on the map
00:44:05.640 the point
00:44:07.560 they're done
00:44:08.320 same with the
00:44:08.840 Conservatives
00:44:09.320 they're done
00:44:09.900 the Conservatives
00:44:11.000 used to have
00:44:11.360 quite a good
00:44:11.700 showing in Wales
00:44:12.220 as well
00:44:12.660 so it's like
00:44:13.500 no you're done
00:44:14.160 it is over
00:44:14.840 the new paradigm
00:44:15.540 is here
00:44:15.920 and you need
00:44:16.640 to understand it
00:44:17.280 so let's talk
00:44:17.800 about Andy
00:44:18.600 Burnham
00:44:18.900 because he is
00:44:19.700 essentially
00:44:20.220 Labour's last
00:44:21.540 gasp at 0.93
00:44:22.540 basically political
00:44:23.780 relevance
00:44:24.180 now a lot of
00:44:25.600 people don't know
00:44:26.080 who Andy
00:44:26.400 Burnham is
00:44:26.820 but 71% of
00:44:27.880 people who know
00:44:28.460 who he is
00:44:29.440 is at least
00:44:30.520 something
00:44:31.520 I mean I guess
00:44:32.020 that makes him
00:44:32.380 a national
00:44:32.740 politician
00:44:33.200 right
00:44:33.820 I mean compared
00:44:34.920 to who
00:44:35.680 I mean
00:44:36.140 where's
00:44:37.460 streeting
00:44:38.020 yeah
00:44:38.520 he's a lot
00:44:39.660 more well
00:44:40.020 known than
00:44:40.300 him
00:44:40.520 right
00:44:41.180 and Andy
00:44:42.120 Burnham
00:44:42.360 is also
00:44:42.920 I mean he's
00:44:44.260 not unpopular
00:44:44.980 which is a good
00:44:46.100 start for a
00:44:46.620 British politician
00:44:47.320 as you can see
00:44:48.200 he's got a 27%
00:44:49.180 approval rating
00:44:49.800 and what was
00:44:51.240 that
00:44:51.440 I would say
00:44:53.500 23%
00:44:54.480 dislike
00:44:55.540 so he's on
00:44:56.440 you know
00:44:56.780 single figures
00:44:57.880 in positive
00:44:58.800 now that's
00:44:59.540 really unusual
00:45:00.080 for a British
00:45:00.700 politician
00:45:01.220 most British
00:45:02.120 politicians
00:45:02.580 are just
00:45:02.940 entirely
00:45:03.280 negative
00:45:03.760 entirely
00:45:05.260 negative
00:45:05.720 yeah I mean
00:45:06.820 he's in a bit
00:45:07.760 of a special
00:45:08.220 situation
00:45:08.800 where I
00:45:09.760 don't dislike
00:45:10.900 him because
00:45:11.500 he's in
00:45:12.040 Manchester
00:45:12.420 and he's
00:45:13.140 nowhere near
00:45:13.800 me and
00:45:14.140 therefore I
00:45:14.500 have no
00:45:14.720 particular
00:45:15.040 reason
00:45:15.460 to dislike
00:45:15.940 him
00:45:15.960 yeah
00:45:17.040 whatever
00:45:18.260 now just
00:45:19.240 to be clear
00:45:19.800 he seems
00:45:20.880 to be quite
00:45:21.240 a popular
00:45:22.060 mayor of
00:45:22.480 Manchester
00:45:22.900 right
00:45:23.340 as far
00:45:24.420 as I can
00:45:24.820 tell
00:45:25.080 I'm not an
00:45:25.540 expert on his
00:45:26.020 political career
00:45:26.820 but I had a
00:45:27.300 look into it
00:45:27.880 he's done
00:45:29.300 a bunch
00:45:29.800 of things
00:45:30.400 that people
00:45:31.560 in Manchester
00:45:32.040 are happy
00:45:32.420 with and he
00:45:33.300 seems to be
00:45:33.640 taking his job
00:45:34.180 very seriously
00:45:34.760 I honestly
00:45:35.620 don't follow
00:45:36.040 Manchester
00:45:36.440 politics but
00:45:37.280 I get the
00:45:37.820 impression
00:45:38.100 you're right
00:45:38.520 why would
00:45:38.980 you
00:45:39.160 but that's
00:45:40.060 the point
00:45:40.400 and so
00:45:41.700 when a
00:45:43.160 Manchester
00:45:43.660 by-election
00:45:44.620 came up
00:45:45.320 because
00:45:45.760 Andrew Gwynn
00:45:47.000 here from
00:45:48.000 Gorton and
00:45:48.900 Denton
00:45:49.400 was suspended
00:45:51.000 from Labour
00:45:51.480 for based
00:45:52.280 messages
00:45:52.780 really
00:45:53.660 not even
00:45:54.220 joking
00:45:54.480 based
00:45:54.720 messages
00:45:55.060 you know
00:45:55.280 what you
00:45:55.440 actually said
00:45:55.860 something
00:45:57.460 they don't
00:45:58.700 give us
00:45:58.920 the exact
00:45:59.440 remigration
00:46:00.360 now
00:46:00.720 they've all
00:46:01.120 got to
00:46:01.340 go
00:46:01.700 where was
00:46:03.020 it
00:46:03.160 they do
00:46:03.760 say
00:46:04.300 they thought
00:46:06.480 an Anglican
00:46:07.060 priest should 1.00
00:46:07.420 be burned 1.00
00:46:07.780 on the 0.90
00:46:08.000 bonfire
00:46:08.480 for being
00:46:09.000 woke
00:46:09.340 there was
00:46:11.020 a few
00:46:12.640 other things
00:46:13.220 as well
00:46:13.660 but
00:46:14.420 just him
00:46:16.060 being racist
00:46:17.100 and sexist 0.82
00:46:17.600 basically
00:46:18.060 and so
00:46:19.280 you should have
00:46:19.740 made him
00:46:20.000 leader
00:46:20.260 well yeah
00:46:20.920 exactly
00:46:21.260 he probably
00:46:22.060 would know
00:46:22.340 quite well
00:46:22.620 but instead
00:46:23.060 he stepped
00:46:24.040 down
00:46:24.340 right
00:46:24.680 and so
00:46:25.140 that meant
00:46:25.620 oh right
00:46:26.300 there's a seat
00:46:27.140 open
00:46:27.440 now
00:46:28.020 what's that
00:46:28.740 doing
00:46:28.900 oh yeah
00:46:29.260 right
00:46:29.500 okay
00:46:29.680 we'll get to
00:46:30.740 that
00:46:30.960 that meant
00:46:31.740 there is
00:46:31.980 there is a seat
00:46:32.700 open
00:46:33.020 now Andy
00:46:34.680 Burnham
00:46:35.060 you will
00:46:35.780 remember
00:46:36.320 if I can
00:46:36.980 where is it
00:46:38.020 screw it
00:46:38.900 spoiling a bunch 0.63
00:46:39.720 of stuff
00:46:39.940 now
00:46:40.180 Andy Burnham
00:46:41.300 has been
00:46:42.240 floated as
00:46:43.880 the one name
00:46:44.680 that can save
00:46:45.540 Labour
00:46:45.820 because he's
00:46:47.680 not under the
00:46:48.160 pole
00:46:48.360 underwater in the
00:46:49.140 poles
00:46:49.400 he's
00:46:50.020 he's being
00:46:50.600 talked about
00:46:50.960 in fact
00:46:51.220 I watched
00:46:51.600 a bunch
00:46:51.900 of
00:46:52.100 these sort
00:46:53.380 of Westminster
00:46:53.840 podcasts about
00:46:54.660 this
00:46:54.880 and they talk
00:46:55.600 about him
00:46:55.920 like he's
00:46:56.300 some political
00:46:57.120 prodigy
00:46:58.820 or something
00:46:59.420 right
00:46:59.980 and it's like
00:47:00.460 no he seems
00:47:01.440 nice
00:47:01.960 you know
00:47:02.340 he seems
00:47:02.660 like a fairly
00:47:03.140 alright guy
00:47:03.840 but he's
00:47:04.720 you know
00:47:05.000 like with
00:47:05.540 the instant
00:47:06.320 with the
00:47:07.000 bond markets
00:47:07.520 and stuff
00:47:07.900 I don't think
00:47:08.620 he's actually
00:47:09.280 the sharpest
00:47:09.860 political actor
00:47:10.600 I think he's
00:47:11.400 just a kind
00:47:11.820 of well
00:47:12.080 he wouldn't be
00:47:12.160 in Labour
00:47:12.500 if he was
00:47:12.960 but yeah
00:47:13.320 I think he's
00:47:13.720 well I mean
00:47:14.180 he's not
00:47:14.620 Tony Blair
00:47:15.100 right
00:47:15.360 I think he's
00:47:16.320 just a kind
00:47:16.760 of well-meaning
00:47:17.220 guy who's
00:47:17.800 done quite a
00:47:18.260 good job
00:47:18.540 in Manchester
00:47:19.120 and he sees
00:47:21.100 that the Labour
00:47:21.720 Party is heading
00:47:22.280 towards a cliff
00:47:22.920 all the signs
00:47:24.260 of a historic
00:47:25.200 wipeout
00:47:25.700 so the Labour
00:47:26.280 Party will never
00:47:26.920 be a party
00:47:27.360 of government
00:47:27.680 again
00:47:27.960 he's like
00:47:28.480 okay I have
00:47:28.980 to step in
00:47:29.520 to save this
00:47:30.160 and how can
00:47:32.300 he get there
00:47:32.940 well as the
00:47:33.400 Mayor of Manchester
00:47:34.000 he can't become
00:47:34.480 the party leader
00:47:35.060 he's got to
00:47:35.420 become an MP
00:47:35.880 so this
00:47:36.980 seat in Gorton
00:47:39.080 and Denton
00:47:39.560 turning up
00:47:40.020 oh couldn't
00:47:40.960 have been
00:47:41.400 better timed
00:47:42.480 well apart
00:47:43.660 from I believe
00:47:44.440 in the Labour
00:47:44.820 Party
00:47:45.160 as I think
00:47:45.860 it says here
00:47:46.420 it's the
00:47:46.720 National Executive
00:47:47.400 that have to
00:47:48.820 approve the list
00:47:49.620 and so the
00:47:50.020 question is
00:47:50.500 who controls
00:47:51.020 the National
00:47:51.400 Executive
00:47:51.780 and the answer
00:47:52.580 to that is
00:47:52.880 Keir Starmer
00:47:53.380 yes
00:47:54.060 and Morgan
00:47:54.880 McSweeney
00:47:55.340 yes
00:47:55.880 and so
00:47:56.500 as Politics
00:47:57.180 UK
00:47:57.420 here
00:47:57.980 look there
00:47:58.640 is a path
00:47:59.080 for Andy
00:47:59.340 Burnham
00:47:59.580 to stand
00:47:59.880 as an MP
00:48:00.220 and look
00:48:01.040 how convoluted
00:48:02.040 this is
00:48:02.520 right
00:48:02.840 you would need
00:48:03.460 approval
00:48:03.780 from Labour's
00:48:04.480 NEC
00:48:04.840 which is widely
00:48:05.900 seen as supportive
00:48:06.480 of Keir Starmer
00:48:06.920 completely his
00:48:07.660 instrument by the way
00:48:09.260 the NEC could
00:48:10.660 block him outright
00:48:11.260 by imposing
00:48:12.080 an all women
00:48:12.560 shortlist
00:48:13.080 to the seat
00:48:13.820 because most Labour
00:48:14.540 MPs are men
00:48:15.260 so great
00:48:15.980 Labour MPs
00:48:17.620 supportive of Burnham
00:48:18.340 could challenge this
00:48:19.240 and try and
00:48:20.060 overturn that move
00:48:21.000 if approved and
00:48:22.400 selected as the
00:48:23.060 candidate
00:48:23.320 he'd have to
00:48:23.800 step down as
00:48:24.260 Greater Manchester
00:48:24.800 Mayor
00:48:25.020 which would
00:48:25.340 trigger a
00:48:26.340 mayoral
00:48:26.820 by-election
00:48:27.340 and he would
00:48:29.300 still have to
00:48:29.820 win the
00:48:30.280 by-election
00:48:30.780 at a time
00:48:31.900 where there is
00:48:32.380 no such thing
00:48:33.140 as a safe
00:48:33.640 Labour seat
00:48:34.220 I mean he
00:48:34.880 might be to do
00:48:35.440 it
00:48:35.680 but risky
00:48:37.800 very risky
00:48:39.260 yes
00:48:39.620 right
00:48:39.900 and this kind
00:48:40.520 of all goes
00:48:40.860 back to the
00:48:41.280 original point
00:48:42.000 that I
00:48:42.280 started with
00:48:43.200 is they
00:48:44.280 all assume
00:48:45.120 that legitimacy
00:48:46.260 flows from
00:48:47.080 elite
00:48:47.400 and therefore
00:48:48.600 you just need
00:48:49.840 to change
00:48:50.380 leaders around
00:48:51.220 yes
00:48:51.720 and you can
00:48:53.080 see the Tories
00:48:53.660 they're about
00:48:54.060 to do this
00:48:54.600 and actually
00:48:55.200 Labour will
00:48:55.660 probably do it
00:48:56.220 in the next
00:48:57.020 18 months
00:48:57.620 they think
00:48:58.120 okay all
00:48:59.100 our legitimacy
00:48:59.800 is used up
00:49:00.580 we swap out
00:49:01.180 the leader
00:49:01.580 and we get a
00:49:02.500 bump
00:49:02.740 and actually
00:49:03.220 no I don't
00:49:03.620 think that
00:49:03.860 works
00:49:04.140 there's no
00:49:04.940 impact
00:49:05.260 I think
00:49:05.800 that time
00:49:06.220 has passed
00:49:07.020 Angela Rayner
00:49:08.780 has defied
00:49:09.900 Keir Starmer
00:49:10.340 by backing
00:49:11.220 Burnham
00:49:11.740 but it's not
00:49:12.660 going to matter
00:49:13.060 everyone's going
00:49:14.080 for it by the way
00:49:14.680 George Gadaway
00:49:15.760 yeah
00:49:16.100 oh Zach Polanski
00:49:16.980 as well
00:49:17.300 well this was
00:49:17.840 rumoured
00:49:18.300 right
00:49:18.600 so now that
00:49:21.900 would have been
00:49:22.320 a hell of a
00:49:23.000 fight right
00:49:23.660 but actually
00:49:24.500 that didn't
00:49:25.060 happen
00:49:25.460 so Zach Polanski
00:49:26.800 they are going
00:49:27.680 to heavily
00:49:28.360 contest it
00:49:29.120 but it's not
00:49:30.660 going to be
00:49:30.880 Zach Polanski
00:49:31.460 because although
00:49:33.160 we'll get to the
00:49:33.920 polling in a minute
00:49:34.400 it's going to be
00:49:34.920 competitive
00:49:35.360 right okay
00:49:36.420 I don't actually
00:49:37.820 know who's going
00:49:38.320 to contest this
00:49:38.920 right
00:49:39.280 well Zach Polanski
00:49:40.440 himself is not
00:49:41.040 going to do it
00:49:41.400 they're going to
00:49:41.840 they're going to
00:49:42.180 get
00:49:42.320 it's very likely
00:49:43.800 to be a lady
00:49:44.320 called Hannah
00:49:44.760 Spencer who's the
00:49:45.600 leader of the
00:49:46.120 Green Group on
00:49:47.020 Trafford Council
00:49:47.740 who stood against
00:49:48.780 Burnham in the
00:49:49.240 2024 mayoral
00:49:50.280 election
00:49:50.860 and
00:49:52.260 if we go back
00:49:54.840 because I
00:49:55.100 misaligned it
00:49:55.820 it's going to be
00:49:56.440 Matt Goodwin for
00:49:57.180 reform
00:49:57.560 which is very
00:49:59.780 interesting
00:50:00.400 what's interesting
00:50:02.280 about that
00:50:03.100 is who it's
00:50:04.580 not
00:50:05.000 right
00:50:06.420 Zia Yusuf
00:50:07.540 yes
00:50:08.160 right
00:50:08.640 who is the
00:50:09.480 most powerful
00:50:10.560 person in
00:50:11.040 reform who is
00:50:11.760 not an MP
00:50:12.340 yes
00:50:14.060 and who is
00:50:15.380 doing the best
00:50:15.960 in Manchester
00:50:16.560 in the polls
00:50:17.060 at the moment
00:50:17.520 reform
00:50:19.280 so why isn't
00:50:20.160 it Zia Yusuf
00:50:20.820 well
00:50:22.160 an answer does
00:50:24.260 spring to mind
00:50:24.960 but I seem to
00:50:25.680 think that
00:50:26.020 Manchester has
00:50:26.620 quite a strong
00:50:27.600 Muslim population
00:50:28.980 unless they feel
00:50:30.900 that that is
00:50:31.800 a factor
00:50:33.840 that the
00:50:34.580 still
00:50:35.640 very slight
00:50:36.760 majority
00:50:37.340 actually I don't
00:50:38.000 know this
00:50:38.260 particular seat
00:50:39.020 let me let me
00:50:39.700 quick I didn't
00:50:40.200 check actually
00:50:40.720 let me check
00:50:41.200 but I don't
00:50:42.180 it really depends
00:50:45.040 on which
00:50:45.440 constituency in
00:50:46.360 Manchester
00:50:46.800 because some of
00:50:47.460 them are
00:50:47.720 overwhelmingly Muslim 1.00
00:50:48.680 and some of
00:50:49.380 them actually
00:50:49.720 still have a
00:50:50.340 white working
00:50:50.800 class population
00:50:51.580 so that is the
00:50:53.060 only swing factor
00:50:54.020 that I can think
00:50:54.720 of because on
00:50:55.300 rhetoric having
00:50:56.120 heard both of
00:50:56.860 them they're
00:50:57.800 actually pretty
00:50:58.340 aligned when it
00:50:59.000 comes to the
00:50:59.440 strength of the
00:50:59.900 rhetoric they put
00:51:00.440 out very
00:51:01.060 similar very
00:51:01.960 similar I mean
00:51:02.480 like Zia Yusuf 0.74
00:51:04.280 honestly he's not
00:51:05.380 been terrible I've
00:51:06.240 got to hand it to
00:51:07.600 him on this and
00:51:09.100 so and this just
00:51:11.500 plays to the point
00:51:12.100 about secretarian
00:51:12.820 politics in in in
00:51:14.300 Britain because if 0.72
00:51:15.040 this had come up
00:51:15.760 10 years ago I
00:51:16.480 wouldn't have
00:51:16.880 bothered raising
00:51:17.580 the ethnicity of
00:51:18.840 the candidate
00:51:19.380 because I mean it
00:51:21.380 wasn't really a
00:51:21.940 factor but today it
00:51:22.920 absolutely is a
00:51:23.720 factor yes I
00:51:25.540 suspect that this is
00:51:26.480 an area that has
00:51:27.260 more white British 0.76
00:51:28.300 people because
00:51:29.220 well the fact that
00:51:29.820 they chose Matt
00:51:30.480 Goodwin would
00:51:31.120 tend to suggest
00:51:32.200 and the fact that
00:51:33.240 they previously
00:51:33.720 had a straight
00:51:34.460 white man as
00:51:35.600 their MP right so
00:51:36.980 that that's
00:51:37.740 interesting so it
00:51:39.360 wasn't Mothin
00:51:39.860 Alley or anything
00:51:40.360 like that who was
00:51:42.320 going for the
00:51:42.740 Greens it's just
00:51:43.220 going to be some
00:51:43.600 rando and the
00:51:47.000 Labour leadership
00:51:47.600 the Labour Party
00:51:48.960 membership wants
00:51:50.140 Burnham they like
00:51:51.880 Burnham Burnham is
00:51:53.620 the most popular
00:51:54.280 politician in the
00:51:55.240 Labour Party among
00:51:56.180 Labour members he's
00:51:57.760 also one of the few
00:51:58.640 Labour politicians who
00:51:59.660 has a one of the
00:52:00.940 few politicians in
00:52:01.620 the country who
00:52:02.580 has a positive
00:52:03.740 overall net rating
00:52:05.860 and he has been
00:52:07.940 positive in his role
00:52:09.740 as the Manchester
00:52:10.460 Mayor so if anyone
00:52:11.820 had the name
00:52:12.760 recognition the
00:52:13.540 clout to actually
00:52:14.700 swing a Manchester
00:52:16.120 constituency it's got
00:52:18.340 to be Burnham
00:52:19.020 yes which would
00:52:20.760 immediately put him
00:52:21.500 as a threat to
00:52:22.040 Keir Starmer so
00:52:22.720 what is the game
00:52:24.380 that Andy Burnham
00:52:25.100 is playing here
00:52:25.560 because he would
00:52:26.040 have known the
00:52:26.780 Labour Party rules and
00:52:27.860 he would have known
00:52:28.420 that Morgan McSweeney
00:52:29.440 can block him so
00:52:30.400 unless he's just
00:52:31.080 doing this to
00:52:31.740 embarrass the
00:52:34.060 proceduralism of
00:52:35.400 Morgan McSweeney
00:52:36.400 and Keir Starmer
00:52:37.500 I don't quite get
00:52:39.080 what his extra
00:52:39.720 angle is here
00:52:40.520 no idea but he
00:52:41.560 wrote to the
00:52:42.180 NEC asking for
00:52:43.380 permission to
00:52:44.060 enter and they
00:52:45.960 were like well
00:52:46.560 we might need a
00:52:47.760 BAME shortlist 1.00
00:52:48.560 might need an
00:52:49.900 all-women
00:52:50.280 shortlist
00:52:50.780 isn't that
00:52:51.200 convenient
00:52:51.640 it's one of those
00:52:54.140 things we've got
00:52:54.960 more white men 0.97
00:52:55.640 than BAME we've 1.00
00:52:56.280 got more men
00:52:56.880 than women 0.99
00:52:57.320 I don't know
00:52:58.760 we've got this
00:52:59.060 enormous list of
00:53:00.140 rules over here
00:53:01.060 that when it
00:53:01.860 suits us we can
00:53:02.560 go and pick
00:53:03.080 that one
00:53:03.800 and it just so
00:53:05.540 happens to align
00:53:06.340 with whatever the
00:53:07.040 leadership happens
00:53:07.740 to want
00:53:08.180 yeah and so
00:53:09.560 they blocked him
00:53:10.100 obviously this came
00:53:12.680 directly from
00:53:13.460 Keir Starmer
00:53:13.960 Keir Starmer
00:53:15.280 explained himself
00:53:16.360 saying oh we
00:53:17.480 just we can't
00:53:18.560 afford a Manchester
00:53:19.680 mayoral by-election
00:53:20.780 at the moment
00:53:21.380 there's no need
00:53:22.860 for this
00:53:23.360 no Keir
00:53:25.100 everyone can tell
00:53:25.860 they need to
00:53:26.760 rename the
00:53:27.440 constituency the
00:53:28.320 Donbass and then
00:53:29.240 they can get
00:53:29.600 4 billion but
00:53:30.940 yeah
00:53:31.500 Keir Starmer was
00:53:33.000 alleging that
00:53:33.460 they'd have to
00:53:34.060 pay for the
00:53:35.520 mayoral election
00:53:36.260 out of Manchester's
00:53:38.380 city funds or
00:53:39.580 something and it's
00:53:40.780 like right
00:53:41.340 okay
00:53:41.580 I mean don't get
00:53:43.280 me wrong I'm sure
00:53:43.760 the Labour Party
00:53:44.400 isn't doing great
00:53:45.380 for money actually
00:53:46.300 oh the entire
00:53:47.120 country's broke but
00:53:48.200 the point is they're
00:53:48.920 still spunking money
00:53:49.740 off left right and
00:53:50.300 sends all over the
00:53:51.000 place 0.99
00:53:51.380 whenever it damn 0.89
00:53:52.840 well suits them so 0.58
00:53:53.660 so obviously this
00:53:55.100 paper-thin excuse is
00:53:56.320 not going to hold I
00:53:57.160 don't know how it's
00:53:57.620 going to hold with
00:53:58.120 Labour backbenchers
00:53:59.440 correct but the
00:54:00.160 thing is this comes
00:54:01.100 after a long long
00:54:04.120 saga of Andy
00:54:06.340 Burnham getting
00:54:07.360 cucked by Keir
00:54:08.140 Starmer right
00:54:09.060 right so remember
00:54:10.080 the Keir Starmer is
00:54:10.840 like Stalin right
00:54:11.700 remember when he
00:54:12.160 took up the Labour
00:54:12.680 Party and he just
00:54:13.320 started kicking people
00:54:14.120 out right just
00:54:15.500 started throwing
00:54:16.560 them out Jeremy
00:54:17.400 Corbyn I mean nearly
00:54:18.060 threw out Diane 0.96
00:54:18.720 Abbott right yeah
00:54:19.740 just there was
00:54:21.040 something like 200
00:54:21.700 300,000 Corbynites
00:54:23.220 who just left the
00:54:24.400 party because Keir
00:54:25.600 Starmer said no we're
00:54:26.400 not having you I think
00:54:27.900 it's 200,000 or 300,000
00:54:29.140 but they're literally
00:54:30.440 loads of them
00:54:31.680 kicks Corbyn out
00:54:32.760 he's like right no
00:54:34.380 end of it and this was
00:54:35.960 at the Labour
00:54:36.340 conference speech back
00:54:37.560 in September where
00:54:39.660 Burnham just got
00:54:41.560 completely cucked by
00:54:42.460 Keir Starmer because
00:54:43.000 Keir Starmer is someone
00:54:44.240 who will brutally wield
00:54:45.860 executive power if he
00:54:47.100 thinks he wants if he
00:54:48.200 needs it right
00:54:48.840 I would live in
00:54:49.280 Britain I'm all
00:54:49.740 aware yeah exactly
00:54:51.100 so Andy Burnham this
00:54:53.000 is the second time
00:54:53.840 that he's been cucked
00:54:54.500 by Starmer despite the
00:54:55.860 fact this is a road to
00:54:57.800 hell for Starmer right
00:54:59.380 for the Labour Party
00:55:00.200 right Andy Burnham
00:55:01.260 actually is their last
00:55:02.680 chance I mean who I
00:55:03.620 mean just let's let's
00:55:05.000 just pull names out of
00:55:05.840 a hat you know
00:55:06.740 where's Ed Miliband and
00:55:07.960 Angela Rayner
00:55:08.600 wed streeting like you 0.99
00:55:10.740 know Shibana well
00:55:11.500 the streeting's probably
00:55:12.600 angling for him but the
00:55:13.780 point is they don't have
00:55:15.060 anyone else and Starmer
00:55:16.740 has just used the BAME 1.00
00:55:18.400 shortlist to block Andy
00:55:20.400 and say nope sorry mate
00:55:21.400 can't do it can't do
00:55:23.380 it's not remotely
00:55:23.880 credible no it's not
00:55:25.240 and it's it's clearly
00:55:25.980 Starmer protecting
00:55:26.740 himself because after the
00:55:27.620 May elections it's
00:55:28.860 going to be very clear
00:55:29.560 that back I mean a
00:55:30.360 backbench revolt is
00:55:31.340 already fomenting right
00:55:32.400 over David Lammy
00:55:33.820 abolishing jury trials
00:55:34.960 that's already bad for
00:55:36.940 them this I'm going to
00:55:38.380 give the Labour
00:55:38.820 backbenchers a hell of a
00:55:39.660 lot of credit if they
00:55:40.260 revolt over that I mean
00:55:41.300 they should do yeah
00:55:42.560 they haven't yet right
00:55:43.660 but anyway so this is
00:55:45.420 the favourability of
00:55:46.600 Andy Burnham in
00:55:47.320 Manchester and most
00:55:49.140 voters have a really
00:55:50.880 favourable view you're
00:55:51.780 not going to get better
00:55:52.400 than that no when
00:55:54.140 clearly this is not
00:55:55.300 about keeping the seat
00:55:57.260 it's about keeping a
00:55:59.840 challenger outside of
00:56:00.940 Keir Starmer's orbit
00:56:01.880 because the only way
00:56:03.240 that Burnham can
00:56:03.940 challenge Starmer is
00:56:05.040 by being an MP and
00:56:06.440 Starmer has just shut
00:56:07.200 him down no you're not
00:56:08.720 going to be an MP in
00:56:09.500 what is essentially a
00:56:10.880 really likely competition
00:56:13.100 for you and so Labour
00:56:14.600 are basically going to
00:56:15.640 sacrifice the seat now
00:56:16.460 of course people don't
00:56:17.740 think this was right
00:56:18.440 people can see this
00:56:19.320 entirely self-interest on
00:56:20.620 the part of Starmer
00:56:21.320 what's the question
00:56:21.860 government is Starmer
00:56:23.320 correct to block Burnham
00:56:24.460 from running all right
00:56:25.580 well what I mean the
00:56:27.000 only one that really
00:56:27.600 counts for his Labour
00:56:28.500 and yeah Burnham is way
00:56:31.440 more popular in Labour
00:56:32.320 than Starber is yes and
00:56:34.920 the thing to remember is
00:56:35.660 there are no safe Labour
00:56:36.600 seats so here is the
00:56:38.360 current projection this was
00:56:42.220 on a knife edge you can
00:56:43.880 see why the Greens are
00:56:44.680 going to be contesting it
00:56:45.440 heavily yeah and people
00:56:48.300 like I mean he's a
00:56:49.220 freeway horse race from
00:56:50.680 this so Labour 29 form
00:56:52.940 26 37 Greens 24 I mean
00:56:56.400 that yeah I mean you can
00:56:57.900 see how the Conservatives
00:56:59.220 are splitting the vote
00:57:00.820 here yeah you know good
00:57:03.300 thing the Greens and
00:57:04.140 Labour are going to be 0.52
00:57:05.020 contesting for the same
00:57:05.760 constituency but it's going
00:57:08.860 to be the Conservatives
00:57:09.660 who end up scuppering it
00:57:10.860 and might end up giving
00:57:12.520 it to the Labour Party
00:57:13.460 so Keir Starmer might
00:57:14.600 luck into keeping this
00:57:16.660 constituency but it's
00:57:18.640 just very interesting how
00:57:19.560 it's genuinely like
00:57:20.700 marginal as hell and you 1.00
00:57:23.340 get all sorts of
00:57:24.260 predictions so to be fair
00:57:27.100 Keir Starmer doesn't need
00:57:28.920 this seat because his
00:57:29.600 majority is big enough
00:57:30.520 that is true the only
00:57:31.740 thing he needs to any and
00:57:32.780 he's not going to be
00:57:33.360 re-elected at the next
00:57:34.260 general election the only
00:57:35.060 thing he needs to do is
00:57:35.820 hold on to his job until
00:57:37.420 the next election that is
00:57:38.560 the successful criteria
00:57:39.580 for Keir Starmer
00:57:40.400 correct and so you can
00:57:42.080 see from Keir Starmer's
00:57:43.200 position he's like well
00:57:44.200 if I let an obvious
00:57:46.480 challenger come into
00:57:48.280 Parliament and then start
00:57:50.240 a backbench revolt against
00:57:51.280 me and enough letters of
00:57:53.860 no confidence go in and
00:57:55.040 we have to have a
00:57:55.560 leadership challenge which
00:57:56.280 he will clearly win or I
00:57:58.420 could just stall in this
00:57:59.820 and just make an executive
00:58:01.160 decision now and Burnham
00:58:03.340 goes to the gulag and his 0.60
00:58:04.460 political career is over
00:58:05.460 right that's what's
00:58:06.720 happened here and so but
00:58:09.180 again it's marginal
00:58:10.020 everything's playful and
00:58:13.020 50 MPs are sort of
00:58:14.840 joining the backbench
00:58:16.140 rumblings of well hang
00:58:18.540 on a second these this
00:58:20.300 was our guy because we're
00:58:22.220 actually not thinking
00:58:23.060 about Keir Starmer's
00:58:24.080 political career we're
00:58:25.740 thinking about the future
00:58:26.500 of the Labour Party you
00:58:28.420 know sorry we're not we're
00:58:29.460 not happy about this and
00:58:31.040 add those to the MPs
00:58:32.780 who are like you can't
00:58:33.960 just abolish jury trials
00:58:35.100 and you realize that the
00:58:36.420 sand is shifting under
00:58:38.180 Keir Starmer's feet so
00:58:39.420 after May the 7th basically
00:58:41.580 Keir Starmer is going to
00:58:42.420 get waxed right Labour
00:58:44.220 Party getting a waxed and
00:58:45.820 everyone like this is your
00:58:46.980 fault Keir Starmer and he
00:58:48.760 will literally have no one
00:58:50.020 else to blame I mean he
00:58:51.400 is absolutely in least
00:58:53.900 disastrous option choosing
00:58:55.440 only yeah but every every
00:58:57.900 option is disastrous exactly I
00:59:00.120 hate to say the walls are
00:59:01.140 closing in yes but they
00:59:03.640 literally are closing in and
00:59:05.380 it all goes back to your
00:59:06.400 point at the very beginning
00:59:07.380 that it's because the
00:59:08.640 electorate has decided they
00:59:11.020 want out they want out of
00:59:13.740 the current elite guided
00:59:15.580 system and are just
00:59:16.900 reassigning themselves and so
00:59:18.360 this is why just to finish
00:59:20.260 off this is why it's so weird
00:59:22.020 watching Farage kind of
00:59:23.460 fumbling this right so what
00:59:26.620 Farage is doing is assembling
00:59:28.460 an elite of Conservative Party and
00:59:31.720 telling the Labour voters who
00:59:33.520 have joined him to vote for
00:59:35.300 them creating a kind of
00:59:37.140 Frankenstein's monster party
00:59:39.840 right so look these are
00:59:41.280 things that are inorganically
00:59:43.060 stitched together a good
00:59:44.620 analogy that are not natural
00:59:47.820 bedfellows and rather than
00:59:50.040 taking them seriously you seem
00:59:52.800 to be taking the previous
00:59:54.160 paradigm seriously that is in
00:59:56.840 the middle of collapsing these
00:59:58.720 these people almost all of
01:00:01.320 them are if not definitely
01:00:04.940 going to go very clearly
01:00:07.480 think oh I can't be safe
01:00:08.940 here I'm not sure that I'm
01:00:10.720 getting this constituency in
01:00:11.780 the next one yeah and and it
01:00:13.520 goes back to my point about
01:00:14.520 the three excluded groups the
01:00:16.240 first one being the excluded
01:00:17.280 talent obviously you're going to
01:00:19.940 kept Rupert Lowe yes and then
01:00:21.480 he would have been how many
01:00:22.900 other Rupert Lowe's are there
01:00:23.820 out there I mean Rupert Lowe can
01:00:24.940 pull 10% organically on his own
01:00:27.060 well but my point is is that I
01:00:29.080 don't think that Rupert Lowe is
01:00:30.400 unique the only thing that's
01:00:31.640 particularly unique about
01:00:32.640 Rupert Lowe is that he made it
01:00:34.080 into the system but there will
01:00:36.640 be hunt dozens if not hundreds
01:00:38.480 of other people like what you're
01:00:40.640 looking for is people who have
01:00:41.720 delivered something serious in
01:00:43.540 the real world and achieved
01:00:44.860 results right and there will be
01:00:47.260 loads of them well I say loads
01:00:48.860 there'll be hundreds to dozens
01:00:50.140 he should have been going out and
01:00:51.840 finding them and lining them up
01:00:53.900 and then say look this guy this
01:00:55.680 guy used to run whatever store
01:00:58.000 that you've heard of pub chain
01:00:59.060 you've heard of
01:00:59.800 yeah yeah something like that
01:01:01.860 why haven't you got Tim
01:01:02.860 what's his face yeah Tim
01:01:04.020 what's his face get him in give
01:01:05.360 him a department give him
01:01:06.060 transport or something he knows
01:01:07.580 how to get a large group of
01:01:09.200 individuals with different
01:01:11.140 stakeholders to do things that
01:01:13.480 results in an actual result
01:01:15.400 sorry carry on no I can't
01:01:18.800 remember here but the point
01:01:20.180 there's going to be loads of
01:01:21.640 those guys out Martin Tim Martin
01:01:23.340 um Nigel could have been going
01:01:26.780 around hoovering them all up
01:01:28.180 building a shadow cabinet
01:01:29.520 outside of parliament but what
01:01:31.420 he wants is people who know
01:01:34.420 that when they try and do
01:01:37.680 anything the the homes the
01:01:41.380 permanent secretary in the civil
01:01:43.440 service comes along and says
01:01:44.600 yes minister if you try and do
01:01:46.300 that you're going to end up with
01:01:47.640 personal legal repercussions for
01:01:49.840 doing that and therefore you
01:01:50.940 can't do it people who have
01:01:52.540 already been placed in that
01:01:53.600 situation and failed it by
01:01:56.160 saying oh okay I'll back off
01:01:57.300 then yep
01:01:57.880 and yet here we are uh so
01:02:02.700 anyway like completely correct
01:02:04.680 um but the the the broader point
01:02:07.740 is that there's something
01:02:08.900 like you were saying like he's
01:02:13.080 stamping on a glass ceiling right
01:02:15.420 and it's like it's breaking the
01:02:17.160 system that's true but he's
01:02:20.380 actually not reaping the
01:02:21.620 rewards of this as he should
01:02:22.940 be right for us should be on
01:02:24.780 about 40 percent easily as the 0.97
01:02:27.300 outsider candidate who is sick
01:02:29.300 of the system and is here to
01:02:30.280 smash it yes and the working
01:02:32.040 class the people who are not
01:02:33.800 universally educated 42 percent
01:02:35.640 reform they're all for it right
01:02:37.180 but even even a surprising number
01:02:39.280 of educated people 16 percent are
01:02:41.620 for it too right if you can't make
01:02:44.260 a successful co governing
01:02:45.860 coalition uh constituency out of
01:02:48.600 that that's crazy why are you in
01:02:50.700 your like he doesn't know what
01:02:52.060 time it is he he's not looking at
01:02:54.020 this as we are from first
01:02:55.220 principles he's looking at it
01:02:56.860 like I said pre-brexit political
01:02:59.540 chess he just thinks I need to
01:03:01.000 move that whatever pieces on board
01:03:02.580 in front of him are the only ones
01:03:03.820 he can see he doesn't realize all
01:03:06.060 he needs to do is stand up and look
01:03:07.380 around and when you look at it from
01:03:09.020 first principles there is a
01:03:10.380 coalition and a significant one of
01:03:13.060 talent ready to go but he can't see
01:03:15.960 it because he's in the he's in the
01:03:17.360 sw1 bubble now and you I but again
01:03:19.960 we'll end on what I think was the
01:03:21.580 best point you made at the
01:03:22.400 beginning
01:03:22.660 legitimacy is not flowing from
01:03:25.700 authority
01:03:26.160 no it's preceding it
01:03:27.860 exactly the authority has
01:03:30.260 demonstrably failed it has been the
01:03:33.900 source of the problems it currently
01:03:36.140 remains the source of the problems
01:03:37.800 and so people are looking for
01:03:39.360 legitimacy outside of the
01:03:40.640 system and Farage meant used to
01:03:43.840 embody that and so actually I think
01:03:46.140 it's a political weeping of himself
01:03:47.880 to just bring in the ex-tories and
01:03:50.440 say right labor voters vote for these
01:03:52.720 guys
01:03:53.160 it's a mistake
01:03:55.260 good
01:03:57.260 it's a mistake
01:04:00.160 Oh
01:04:00.760 yes
01:04:01.500 yes
01:04:04.020 um
01:04:04.860 here