The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - The Great Misalignment

00:00:00.000 Hi guys, Islander 5 is out to purchase now. As you can see from this amazing cover,

00:00:05.700 this edition's theme is Heroism, Power and Modernity. And the articles in there, which I

00:00:11.560 have to say are rather good, don't you know? And I'm not just talking about mine, I'm talking about

00:00:16.180 all of them. They discuss what the Heroic Society is and why modernity is destroying it, but why

00:00:22.800 the spirit of the hero is looming throughout everything that's happening. And again, I say

00:00:28.080 the cover goes hard, right? Because, I mean, look at it. You would think that this was tailored for the

00:00:33.920 current events, but no, we're always ahead of the curve. Anyway, it's thicker than normal as well

00:00:38.400 because we just happen to have a load of extra content in there. We've got an exclusive interview

00:00:41.980 from Rupert Lowe, Lutz from the editor, and a comic that's halfway through that's philosophically

00:00:48.060 informed, which I think you'll enjoy. So get it while you can at shop.lotuses.com. The link will

00:00:52.940 be in the description. Hi folks, welcome back to another one of Carl and Dan's political chats.

00:00:57.880 A lot's going on at the moment, and it's really fast, and we've got a lot to cover. So let's just

00:01:03.000 crack on. Polling has been very strange, right? So here's a YouGov poll from today from Sky News,

00:01:11.900 as reported by Sky News. YouGov being, I think, the fourth most reliable pollster in the country

00:01:16.680 out of something like 50. So they're pretty good. They get most things correct. Reform on 25,

00:01:23.220 Labour on 21, Conservatives on 17, Greens on 16, and no one cares about the Liberal Democrats.

00:01:28.900 So that's a low poll. This is sort of a high poll. We'll get Reform on 32, Conservatives on 18,

00:01:36.740 Greens on 17, Labour on 14, Lib Dems on 11, right? So let's have a look at the average of polls, right?

00:01:43.460 So there has been a bit of a downturn recently for Reform, but they got a 1% bump from the Tory

00:01:50.220 defections. Interesting. 1%. The thing that strikes me about this is your first poll. Okay,

00:01:59.040 let's contrast your first poll with your second poll. The second poll, where it was actually quite

00:02:02.200 a strong difference, is something that we talked about a whole bunch of times, and that is Reform

00:02:06.180 are in first place and everybody else is in second place. And that is inherently unstable because in a

00:02:11.280 two-party system, first pass the post is designed to be a two-party system. You can't have four

00:02:15.800 parties in second place, it doesn't hold. But what your first poll shows is you've actually got

00:02:21.140 five parties in second place. There's no clear leader. Now that is wildly unstable for a political

00:02:28.120 system. It's crazy. But like we were talking about previously, what I think we're witnessing is a

00:02:34.520 current realignment, right? The centre is draining out into the fringes, frankly, the extremes. And

00:02:41.760 this is just the process that we are watching play out. And so you can see where we'll come to

00:02:48.760 where these things, who these people are and where they're going in a minute, in fact.

00:02:52.800 But so this gives us some general election predictions, right? This is from electoral calculus.

00:02:56.620 And as you can see, if based on the previous seats, the next one, the prediction for the next one is

00:03:05.760 like roughly what they think they're going to get. So depending on like the average of polls gives you

00:03:10.640 this, could be a lot higher, could be a lot lower. But either way, it's pretty bad for the Conservatives

00:03:17.220 and Labour, right? So if the Conservatives and Labour really hit it out of the park, they get not even

00:03:22.180 250 seats each. Considering Keir Starmer's got 407 at the moment. And I mean, the Conservatives

00:03:28.600 are on like 120, but you know, they should be the major party. Yes. But the low seats...

00:03:34.280 The high seats don't add up. So this is just to be... Each row is to be considered discreet.

00:03:39.240 Correct. But the low seats, I mean, my God, that's pretty bad. Yes.

00:03:44.280 The reform, the lowest they think they're going to get is 135. Now that's not great. But considering

00:03:48.580 they've got eight MPs at the moment, there's still a lot of ground gained. The average being

00:03:54.020 274, but of course the high, 396. So if you're Nigel Farage and you're looking at this, you can

00:04:00.000 think, well, a bit of solid campaigning, right? With my 28% average...

00:04:06.000 I think that is really the danger. And I think this is what not just Nigel Farage, but the

00:04:10.740 entire political class is doing. And not just the entire, everybody in SW1. So I'm including

00:04:16.380 all the mainstream media... The entire Westminster bubble.

00:04:19.940 Yeah, the entire Westminster bubble. What I think they're doing is they think that they are playing

00:04:25.220 pre-Brexit political chess. And the reason they think that is because they literally don't know

00:04:31.280 anything else. Not only their entire careers, their entire lives have been pre-Brexit political chess.

00:04:37.680 And not only their entire lives, the lives of their grandparents.

00:04:41.020 Oh yeah, going back to whatever it is, 1930 or whatever it is. Whenever it was that the Labour

00:04:46.680 Party emerged, yeah. Literally, all modern political calculation has ended.

00:04:53.500 Yes, all living memory is this political chess move where you do this, I do that, and then

00:04:58.980 one of us gets checkmate and then we win the election. Or we form a working party with a

00:05:04.900 hung parliament or whatever it is. I'm not sure that's what's actually going on. What I think

00:05:10.060 has happened is that the political legitimacy itself is drinking at the last chance saloon.

00:05:15.220 Yes.

00:05:16.140 And that what you're actually seeing is we're in a shake-up where legitimacy is preceding

00:05:23.040 parties and not the other way around. Because what I think the average commentator, well,

00:05:28.460 the SW1 bubble thinks is that what is going on is a process of elite realignment. And then

00:05:34.880 once the elites have worked out what that realignment is, legitimacy follows from that,

00:05:40.620 normal governance resumes. And that's probably why you see this sort of tacit approval for

00:05:46.900 reform, even amongst things like the BBC who are giving in the time of day and stuff like

00:05:50.920 that. What I actually think is happening is that reform are dancing on thin ice in between

00:05:58.620 the rotten political establishment and something which is not allowed to exist yet. And that is

00:06:06.800 made up of excluded parties. And I've not been thinking about this long, but the three excluded

00:06:13.300 parties I would highlight on this is one excluded talent. Rupert Lowe is an example of this.

00:06:20.600 Now, what I mean by excluded... So, for example, I don't think... And I think even Rupert himself

00:06:24.640 would agree with me if he heard this. I don't think that Rupert Lowe is a once-in-a-generation

00:06:30.160 political talent. I think that he is a once-in-a-decade leakage from the excluded part of the

00:06:37.560 political world to the included part. He wasn't supposed to make that transition. You're normally

00:06:43.020 excluded. Nigel Farage himself is probably the last decade's leakage from the excluded world into

00:06:49.120 the included world. These people don't get across normally. I think, actually, there are dozens,

00:06:53.680 if not hundreds, of Rupert Lowe's out there, ready to act who could, if it were not the fact

00:07:00.120 they're excluded. And they're excluded for a number of reasons. They're excluded because

00:07:02.460 the political system, one, doesn't want them in, and two, the political system is so rotten,

00:07:08.540 they don't want to go in either. So there's a kind of double exclusion mechanism going on there.

00:07:12.460 The second excluded field is where do the narratives that resonate come from?

00:07:17.720 And I think they come from us. Sometimes, literally, you and I, people in this office,

00:07:23.740 all the online rights sphere as a whole.

00:07:25.600 Very much so.

00:07:26.500 And we know this is true because the amount of times where we've done some serious thinking

00:07:30.420 on something and compressed it into a narrative or phrasing that then resonates and people

00:07:38.040 understand. And then we're watching a Nigel Farage press conference two months later,

00:07:42.060 and we see a very specific bit of phrasing that we've used.

00:07:46.640 Two-tier policing.

00:07:47.900 Exactly.

00:07:48.380 That was a very online right thing.

00:07:49.720 Yes.

00:07:50.180 Remigration is another example of this. 1.00

00:07:53.520 And Max Tempers, in particular, has been very effective. He's only got like 20,000 Twitter

00:07:58.300 followers. But Max Tempers-isms end up percolating upwards into the mainstream.

00:08:04.620 And I understand why this is happening. This is happening because even though we are persona

00:08:08.740 non grata for Nigel Farage and the SW1 bubble, the people working for them, they're all watching

00:08:16.040 us.

00:08:16.500 Yes.

00:08:16.800 Right? So when they see something, they're then like, oh, okay, I'll jot that down. And

00:08:20.940 I go to the boss and I say, you could phrase it like this. And he's like, bloody hell, that's 0.97

00:08:24.660 good. 0.95

00:08:25.580 You came up with that all yourself?

00:08:27.160 Oh, yes, I did say.

00:08:28.500 I mean, I don't mind if they steal it. They're welcome to.

00:08:30.440 No, no, but not, I mean, we put it out in the public for free, right? But not only that,

00:08:33.780 it's not even that they necessarily are watching us, although I think a lot of them are.

00:08:37.640 Well, they are, because they message us sometimes.

00:08:40.680 Well, yeah, of course, I know which ones are. But the milieu ends up being curated in the

00:08:45.820 direction that we want it to go, because we create the memes, or we compress the ideas

00:08:49.660 down, and this just flows into the river.

00:08:53.800 Well, we're the only ones actually doing thinking as opposed to responding to headlines, which

00:08:57.920 is what they spend most of their time doing.

00:08:59.040 I like your point about this is not about elite realignment, and I think you're right.

00:09:05.160 I think what this is about is the public realignment, because...

00:09:09.060 That is my third point, yeah.

00:09:10.420 We'll come to that a bit later on in the podcast, if that's all right, because we are in a democratic

00:09:14.660 system. For all of its faults, we still have the power of selection, right?

00:09:19.800 It is actually up to the public to decide what MPs they return to the parliament.

00:09:23.480 Okay, so I'll return to my third excluded group, because that will almost certainly flow

00:09:27.620 in.

00:09:27.700 It's the general public.

00:09:28.520 Well, what it is, it's the voters who showed up for Brexit, never had before, never had

00:09:37.300 since.

00:09:38.040 Put a pin in it, we'll come back to it, because you're exactly on the money, I think, there.

00:09:42.060 But you are right, and this is why Farage taking all the ex-Tories is so weird, and everyone's

00:09:47.880 like, what are you doing?

00:09:49.400 Well, that works by the logic of the 20th century.

00:09:52.980 If you play political chess, it works.

00:09:54.580 Yeah, well, why wouldn't I just take these known, and a lot of them are MPs, or have

00:10:00.060 been MPs, have been in government, well, yeah, if I just bring them over, logismacy

00:10:04.420 flows from the top.

00:10:05.940 Logismacy flows from the party.

00:10:07.960 Nigel Farage thinks he is gaining logismacy by doing this.

00:10:11.920 However, having our ear to the ground, we're like, oh, people are not happy with this.

00:10:17.540 I mean, like, there are a lot of people who hate Zia Youssef for being a Muslim.

00:10:22.260 A lot of people.

00:10:23.160 Now, I'm not saying I'm one of them, or anything like that, but, like, you can't

00:10:25.860 deny that, and Lalia Cunningham has had this exact same point.

00:10:29.600 Read the comments on her trigonometry interview.

00:10:31.980 It's a good interview, right?

00:10:33.000 She's a fluent, clear speaker, and she's obviously not a raging Islamist, and yet, a large portion 0.96

00:10:38.840 of the British public just hear the word Muslim, and are just like, don't like it.

00:10:41.920 She's actually quite politically sound.

00:10:43.340 I listened to that in the car on the way in the morning.

00:10:44.720 I agree, she's good.

00:10:45.140 She's pretty good.

00:10:46.300 I mean, the issue is...

00:10:47.500 Is she going to get a fair hearing?

00:10:48.860 Yeah, the issue is that there was acute demographic stress because of the decisions of the elite.

00:10:53.700 Yes.

00:10:54.760 And so, you know, people are kind of at the point where politics has been secretarianized.

00:11:00.980 You know, it's like saying to, you know, a Protestant in Northern Ireland at the height 0.57

00:11:05.760 of the Troubles, you know, this Catholic over here can articulate your views really well.

00:11:11.460 Why don't you vote for them?

00:11:12.620 And it's like, well, because they're a Catholic.

00:11:15.620 And you're exactly right.

00:11:17.020 And so, they are playing with the deck chairs on the Titanic, rearranging them, thinking

00:11:22.140 that this will give legitimacy as to the seating arrangement, but actually, everyone's already

00:11:26.620 getting on the lifeboats.

00:11:27.960 And I can understand why they think it works.

00:11:29.660 It's because it always has that worked that way before.

00:11:32.180 People wait for the elites to come to a consensus between them.

00:11:34.920 That then gets laundered through the media.

00:11:36.320 Everybody at home gets told, OK, the elites have agreed, and therefore, this is a good

00:11:42.020 thing.

00:11:42.280 This is what we're doing.

00:11:43.740 And the public have been spending, it depends on how old you are, if you're 60, you've been

00:11:46.660 watching the political class do that for 60 years and produce failure after failure.

00:11:51.400 The political system as a whole is drinking in the last chance saloon here.

00:11:54.920 It's not a question of whether the elites agree.

00:11:57.480 They can do that.

00:11:58.240 They don't have the underlying legitimacy.

00:12:00.360 And what legitimacy that reform did have is we are not them.

00:12:04.940 Yes, we're a protest vote.

00:12:06.760 Yes, it's a weak form of legitimacy, but it's good enough in this moment.

00:12:10.800 Better than anyone else is good.

00:12:11.760 And they are stamping on the we're not them by hiring everybody who is them. 0.98

00:12:16.980 It's literally them.

00:12:18.000 Yes.

00:12:18.620 And there was another thing as well.

00:12:21.780 The, what was I going to say?

00:12:24.140 I had something there, but I lost it.

00:12:25.820 Anyway, we'll read it that bit.

00:12:27.200 I'm sure we'll come back to it.

00:12:28.560 Right, so, yeah, this is not great, actually.

00:12:31.860 You know, very mediocre Tory reform bounce, reform Tory bounce, I guess.

00:12:39.100 And, of course, with this kind of polling, not good.

00:12:43.620 Like, it's a hung parliament, any way you slice it, like we were talking about the other day.

00:12:47.440 There isn't, sorry, not even really a hung parliament.

00:12:50.900 You know, like, how are you, it would have to take the Lib Dems or something to come over.

00:12:55.680 You're basically...

00:12:56.840 Is the Black in the Middle or the Northern Ireland Party?

00:12:58.380 Oh, yeah, sorry, the Northern Ireland Parties would have to decide it.

00:13:00.700 Now, they'd definitely go for the reforming conservatives.

00:13:03.700 But still, like, that is...

00:13:06.700 Yes.

00:13:07.700 Like, this, as you were saying, this is indicative of a political system that has lost legitimacy.

00:13:12.700 Right, and the, it is, it is the, and the people who are actually being realigned are the voting public.

00:13:20.140 Like, they are realigning themselves in spite of what the elites are doing, right?

00:13:25.420 The voting public are not happy.

00:13:26.920 My entire argument can be boiled down to legitimacy is preceding the elites, not the other way around.

00:13:32.260 And that's a shock for the system, and they don't know how to process it.

00:13:34.640 Correct.

00:13:34.980 And it's creating a weird series of misalignments that I think that people aren't really thinking about.

00:13:39.880 So, of course, we have the Tory defectors from, to reform, which, as you can see, five MPs.

00:13:47.920 So, now they have more Tory defectors MPs than they had reform MPs.

00:13:53.560 I mean, they did, well, yes, Lee Anderson.

00:13:55.520 I mean, they did start off with five.

00:13:57.180 Lee Anderson, at least one as a reform candidate.

00:13:59.300 So, they've got, you know, four Tory MP defectors now.

00:14:03.260 And that's pretty unprecedented as well, when you think about it.

00:14:05.860 Like, I can't really remember political defections before now, right?

00:14:10.100 Like, political defections were really unusual.

00:14:13.140 Like, Douglas Carswell was one.

00:14:14.980 Yeah, he went to UKIP and won Clacton.

00:14:18.100 And, I mean, there was, I mean, there always is one per parliament.

00:14:22.180 I remember the Labour government had somebody who defected.

00:14:24.940 But they're really unusual.

00:14:26.140 Yeah, and I can't remember their names.

00:14:28.140 Exactly, right?

00:14:29.080 But now, these are incredibly high profile.

00:14:31.680 Oh, yeah, now it's the six o'clock news.

00:14:33.760 You find out with the latest Tory to defect.

00:14:35.100 I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if we get off this

00:14:37.600 and discover there's been another one while we're in here filming.

00:14:39.820 Entirely possible.

00:14:40.620 I mean, this literally happened the other day

00:14:42.180 when we were filming with Jeremy.

00:14:43.300 Oh, yes, it did.

00:14:43.980 We literally had to scrap an entire episode of this.

00:14:46.380 Because we were like, well, I mean, is Jeremy?

00:14:47.840 We don't know.

00:14:48.660 And then suddenly, it turns out he had. 0.72

00:14:50.120 But the point is, the Tory party is clearly a bleeding, wounded, dying animal. 0.91

00:14:54.840 Yes. 0.64

00:14:55.220 And that's not good.

00:14:57.360 That's not going anywhere, right?

00:14:59.240 But what is...

00:15:00.160 Well, I mean, the Tory's bleeding.

00:15:02.160 I don't mind that bit.

00:15:03.300 But yes, for the political system as a whole, yes.

00:15:05.600 I'm all for it.

00:15:06.020 But this is the point, right?

00:15:07.540 The reason they're bleeding is because nobody understands

00:15:10.660 the ground shifting underneath their feet.

00:15:13.260 And they're like, oh, right, well, we've got to move.

00:15:15.520 I mean, this is clearly...

00:15:16.520 Something's happening.

00:15:17.320 Yes.

00:15:17.740 But we don't know why we're doing what we're doing, right?

00:15:20.300 We just know...

00:15:20.740 Is the Tyrannosaurus chasing after the Diplodocus,

00:15:23.720 unaware that the meteor is streaking overhead?

00:15:26.220 Pretty much.

00:15:26.940 I mean, the Conservatives are flailing.

00:15:29.540 But they're like, well, you know, reform back...

00:15:31.380 And this was only six months ago or so?

00:15:33.100 When was that?

00:15:33.740 Yeah, July 2025.

00:15:35.160 So, like, eight months ago.

00:15:36.960 You know, Farage was like, oh, I wouldn't take Swell of Braverman

00:15:39.840 because she'd damage the party's image. 0.92

00:15:42.560 Well, what's happened?

00:15:44.340 Again, are there any Tories you wouldn't take?

00:15:47.220 Because you think you're gaining legitimacy that flows from the elite.

00:15:50.480 That's why he's...

00:15:50.960 I mean, literally, it's a stated reason.

00:15:52.860 I want people with experience in government

00:15:54.060 so people can know we're a professionalised party

00:15:56.080 and you can put your trust in us.

00:15:57.940 It's like, well, actually, that's not where the trust is coming from.

00:16:01.340 The trust was coming from the fact that you wouldn't take the Tories.

00:16:05.100 There's a deeper piece of thinking that I'm doing on my next Brokonomics,

00:16:07.900 which is to just fundamentally re-evaluate

00:16:10.980 how does the British state actually work.

00:16:14.140 And I've been getting into this

00:16:15.760 and I think it is not anything like the story we're told.

00:16:18.980 The actual story is a system of risk management.

00:16:23.300 Yes.

00:16:23.500 How do I avoid judicial risk?

00:16:25.740 How do I avoid market risk?

00:16:27.140 How do I avoid risk of incompatibility with international treaties?

00:16:31.460 That kind of thing.

00:16:32.200 And when you view it as a whole series of risk ownerships,

00:16:35.060 changing the people doing the narrative construction element of this

00:16:40.460 doesn't do a damn thing.

00:16:43.040 And that was what Dominic Cummings' point was. 0.70

00:16:44.940 It's like the ministers...

00:16:46.340 Exactly what triggered my thinking.

00:16:47.880 Dominic Cummings, yeah.

00:16:48.480 The offices are not beholden to the ministers.

00:16:50.480 The ministers are just kind of figureheads

00:16:52.180 and they do nothing of any substance.

00:16:54.560 But anyway, the question is, is this going to last?

00:16:57.680 Because, I mean, like, obviously you've got Zia Youssef pointing out

00:17:01.640 that, well, you know, we'll repeal the Online Safety Act

00:17:04.120 that Braverman and Jemre put across.

00:17:06.300 I mean, Dorries was literally the author of it.

00:17:08.160 She's currently in the party. 0.98

00:17:09.900 And, you know, he's been going at them...

00:17:12.000 Again, this is back in July, for months.

00:17:14.200 Like, this is not...

00:17:15.180 And the thing is, this isn't ancient history.

00:17:17.240 You know, eight months ago is not that long ago, actually.

00:17:20.560 But things have changed so severely

00:17:22.720 that now they have to go completely back the other way.

00:17:26.400 Oh, no, I've always liked Swella Braveman and Robert Jemreich.

00:17:30.240 Yeah.

00:17:30.620 Do we think this is a match made in heaven?

00:17:32.700 Do we think this is an alliance that's going to last?

00:17:34.120 Something very interesting.

00:17:35.580 Very interesting conversations are going to be had behind the scenes.

00:17:39.000 Zia, if you want to get in touch and tell us what you really think,

00:17:41.560 we will preserve your confidence.

00:17:43.400 I'd just like to know what you make of this.

00:17:45.900 Absolutely.

00:17:47.140 Especially as he's got a controlling stake in reform.

00:17:51.640 Yes, yes.

00:17:52.580 Yes.

00:17:52.920 You know, and you don't pay 200 grand for that for nothing, right?

00:17:56.180 No, he's the heir apparent.

00:17:58.180 He's the crown prince.

00:17:59.780 Of course.

00:18:00.520 And, but this...

00:18:02.740 There are going to be personality conflicts, I think, in this.

00:18:07.000 The election is still three years out, probably,

00:18:09.260 unless it comes sooner, which no one can guarantee.

00:18:11.900 I mean, to be perfectly fair, if the party consisted of two MPs

00:18:15.560 and one of them was Nigel Farage, there would be personality conflicts.

00:18:18.520 Yes.

00:18:19.200 They're almost certainly going to be in a party of ten now.

00:18:21.720 And being...

00:18:22.280 And with big names.

00:18:23.560 Yes.

00:18:23.860 And big social media presences.

00:18:25.940 And three years to get on each other's nerves.

00:18:28.280 I mean, I don't...

00:18:28.920 And you can treat Tyson Lee Anderson as your butler.

00:18:32.180 Yeah.

00:18:32.340 But can you get away with treating Swilla Braveman and Robert Jemreich that way?

00:18:35.960 I don't think so.

00:18:37.040 The ambitious Jemreich.

00:18:38.540 Anyway, so Farage explains to us why he's taken these people

00:18:42.760 and why he wouldn't take others.

00:18:44.900 Because that's the question, right?

00:18:45.900 It's like, okay, well, if you take Swilla Braveman,

00:18:47.760 why wouldn't you take Liz Truss? 0.99

00:18:48.920 If you take Nadine Dorries, why wouldn't you take Boris Johnson?

00:18:52.600 Yeah.

00:18:53.200 Well, yes.

00:18:54.620 What's the reason for excluding them?

00:18:56.760 And this is what he says.

00:18:57.520 You talk about Britain being broken,

00:19:00.940 but you're filling reform with the very people that broke it.

00:19:05.840 Well, the Conservative government did break it.

00:19:08.520 Absolutely.

00:19:09.280 But you see, there are people like Robert Jemreich who resigned as a matter of principle.

00:19:13.740 People like Swilla Braveman who spoke out on ECHR,

00:19:17.120 said we should leave and was removed from her post.

00:19:19.980 So we are taking people who tried their best to fight the system at the time

00:19:25.840 and they admit they failed.

00:19:28.820 So we're taking failures?

00:19:30.100 Well, another way of looking at that is we're only going to take people

00:19:33.720 who've been given the Rupert Lowe treatment, except in the Tory party.

00:19:37.340 Yes.

00:19:38.280 But the theme here is, yes, they did all this damage,

00:19:43.260 but they are failures.

00:19:44.900 So we're taking them.

00:19:46.760 It's like, I mean, that's...

00:19:48.920 Hang on, what happened to Nahim...

00:19:51.740 I can't do the name.

00:19:53.680 Nahim Zwahari.

00:19:55.420 What?

00:19:55.700 Nadim Zahari.

00:19:56.560 Yes.

00:19:57.040 Yeah.

00:19:57.520 He didn't get booted out, did he?

00:19:58.660 No, he stood down because he knew he was going to get canned.

00:20:01.760 Right, so Farage's own framing doesn't even apply to him?

00:20:05.620 No, it only applies to these two.

00:20:07.120 Right.

00:20:07.540 Because these are clearly incidents of convenience.

00:20:11.480 Well, these are the two he's being asked about at the moment.

00:20:13.400 If the interviewer was a bit sharper, she would have said,

00:20:15.420 okay, well, how does Zahari fit that pattern?

00:20:18.400 But that's the point, right?

00:20:19.560 Because this isn't about him already having a sort of pre-established line,

00:20:23.760 because otherwise that pre-established line would have been what it was

00:20:26.040 eight months ago when Zia Yusuf was like,

00:20:27.580 we're not taking...

00:20:28.260 No, this is a political chess player noticing an unguarded pawn or bishop.

00:20:33.140 He's just taking pieces.

00:20:34.740 Thinking that legitimacy flows from the top down,

00:20:37.920 which I think you are right about and he's wrong about.

00:20:41.180 But it's just really weird framing,

00:20:42.860 and it puts him in a strangely vulnerable position.

00:20:45.500 There's a very febrile narrative that he's weaving

00:20:48.700 to make this seem like a good common sense move, right?

00:20:52.500 Because, I mean, everyone's noticing, well, hang on a second.

00:20:55.780 I mean, Jonathan Pye's like, this isn't even Tory light, is it?

00:20:58.760 It's just the Tories with special guest star Nigel Farage.

00:21:02.020 It's like...

00:21:02.480 Yes.

00:21:03.120 Well, yeah.

00:21:05.920 The best example I can think of is when, in season seven of Stargate,

00:21:10.660 Colonel O'Neill retired and they got that new guy in,

00:21:13.140 but otherwise the team was unchanged.

00:21:14.900 It's pretty much that.

00:21:15.980 Yeah, pretty much that.

00:21:16.900 And the thing is, that's what Calvin Robertson has pointed out.

00:21:19.600 I like Swellers. 1.00

00:21:20.300 She's an actual conservative conservative, 0.76

00:21:22.220 but it really is just the conservative party with extra steps.

00:21:24.920 And so if, like, people on the left,

00:21:26.700 and are quite entrenched on the left,

00:21:28.180 and people who are definitely on the right,

00:21:29.980 are both saying, well, hang on a second,

00:21:32.140 you're just creating the uniparty consensus in the middle,

00:21:34.760 I think that's the public impression of what's happening.

00:21:38.920 Because it's one thing saying, well,

00:21:40.720 oh, well, I don't take that left-wing guy seriously

00:21:42.560 because he brings a particular ideological agenda,

00:21:45.000 or I don't take that right-wing guy seriously,

00:21:46.820 he's got a particular ideological agenda.

00:21:48.460 But there's a philosophical theory of truth called convergence theory.

00:21:52.780 It's like when everyone happens to have converged on the same point,

00:21:55.960 there's probably something true about it.

00:21:57.720 Well, I mean, bear in mind, we live in a society

00:21:59.440 where you couldn't have Calvin Robinson or Jonathan Pye

00:22:02.540 agree on what a woman is.

00:22:04.100 Correct.

00:22:04.660 So the fact that we can all agree on this

00:22:06.760 means it is more axiomatically true

00:22:08.700 than what a woman is. 1.00

00:22:10.360 Completely correct.

00:22:11.400 But moreover, the public is definitely just going to see this.

00:22:14.740 It's going to be hard for them to be like,

00:22:16.460 any passing glance,

00:22:17.740 like ex-conservative MP Robert Jenrick or whatever,

00:22:20.820 you're like, oh, right,

00:22:21.940 and another ex-conservative, ex-conservative.

00:22:24.060 It's going to build up in your mind, right,

00:22:25.580 reform are just the reformed Tories.

00:22:27.300 Right, okay, fine.

00:22:28.600 So the thing about that is

00:22:31.040 Nigel is actually taking a big gamble with these people as well.

00:22:34.160 So not only is he taking in a bunch of people

00:22:37.220 that he has called failures,

00:22:38.700 we literally just listen to him call them failures,

00:22:41.520 they are turncoats from their own parties.

00:22:44.040 Now, I'm not saying that you shouldn't be a turncoat from the Tories.

00:22:46.540 Obviously, you shouldn't be in the Tories.

00:22:48.180 But that's never a good look in and of itself.

00:22:50.700 And also, it looks like they're going to lose their seats.

00:22:54.240 So, as we can see,

00:22:55.880 Swallow Braverman's seat is hardly a done deal.

00:22:58.460 But then neither is Robert Jenrick's in Newark and Sherwood.

00:23:02.520 He's actually put himself in a minority position here.

00:23:05.180 Now, I don't know how many conservative or voters

00:23:09.240 either one's going to bring across.

00:23:10.420 But on paper, it might not be that many, actually.

00:23:14.640 So there's a couple of ways of looking at this.

00:23:16.340 The traditional political theory is that a long-established MP

00:23:21.100 with good name recognition,

00:23:23.000 that element is worth about 10% of the vote share.

00:23:26.200 Meaning that if that is correct,

00:23:27.920 what should happen is those two just neatly switch

00:23:30.080 and reform goes to 53% and conservatives go to 43% and they win.

00:23:34.480 If the broader political narrative that we often hear,

00:23:37.580 which is a bit lazy but are cited,

00:23:40.360 is that the votes of the conservatives and reform

00:23:42.480 are basically interchangeable.

00:23:44.420 If you get to the next election

00:23:45.860 and it looks like the conservatives genuinely

00:23:47.700 don't have any chance of winning,

00:23:49.260 and that is obviously true,

00:23:50.920 however, that hasn't filtered through to Normiland

00:23:52.560 and the boomers yet,

00:23:53.720 if that filters through,

00:23:55.520 then Jenrick should get 96% of the vote,

00:23:59.000 which I don't believe.

00:24:00.740 But you would expect him to win.

00:24:02.460 Well, about 50% of the vote, actually.

00:24:04.620 Well, if you had the reform vote to the...

00:24:06.560 Oh, sorry, that's chance of winning, isn't it?

00:24:08.020 Yeah.

00:24:08.440 Oh, no, you're right.

00:24:09.280 70-odd percent, yeah.

00:24:11.640 But about 50%.

00:24:12.880 But even then, that's a storming victory.

00:24:15.440 But this is the thing.

00:24:16.980 It's not guaranteed.

00:24:18.980 Because actually,

00:24:19.900 a lot of conservative voters are quite sticky.

00:24:22.380 People do tend to vote for the rosette

00:24:24.080 rather than the person.

00:24:25.840 And this has been a long-standing complaint

00:24:27.280 about British politics, 0.97

00:24:28.040 put a red rosette on a pig

00:24:29.320 and people will vote for it in the north.

00:24:30.780 Yeah, in the early 2000s,

00:24:31.960 they started putting the political logo

00:24:35.500 on the ballot paper.

00:24:36.800 Whereas before that,

00:24:37.760 you actually had to learn the name

00:24:39.500 of the candidate you wanted to vote for,

00:24:41.160 which I thought was a minimum hygiene level,

00:24:42.980 but they scrapped that.

00:24:43.880 Yeah.

00:24:44.540 So, obviously, it was team voting.

00:24:46.380 But I don't think anything could be taken as red.

00:24:48.800 And so, who knows what happens there?

00:24:50.720 But again, this is all a bit...

00:24:52.040 Just an aside on that.

00:24:55.620 So, I thought we'd talk about...

00:24:57.760 Oh, yeah.

00:24:58.480 Sorry.

00:24:58.720 There was one last thing as well.

00:24:59.900 We're expecting a Labour defection

00:25:01.180 to the Conservative Party,

00:25:03.520 to the Reform Party,

00:25:04.740 but it hasn't materialised yet.

00:25:06.080 I mean, maybe it'll have materialised.

00:25:07.560 Yeah, that was like 10 days ago, wasn't it?

00:25:08.820 Yeah, exactly.

00:25:09.180 That was muted.

00:25:10.040 Yeah.

00:25:10.520 This was on the same day

00:25:11.420 that Jemric was announced

00:25:13.860 to have defected unexpectedly by Kemi.

00:25:17.360 I mean, Raj really needs that defection.

00:25:19.480 He really does.

00:25:20.380 He should be going to whoever it is 0.99

00:25:21.840 and saying,

00:25:22.260 look, I'll make you...

00:25:22.960 What do you want?

00:25:23.480 Do you want Home Secretary?

00:25:24.440 Whatever.

00:25:24.940 Just come.

00:25:26.500 Yeah.

00:25:27.140 Because, at the moment,

00:25:28.260 it is just the Tory narrative.

00:25:29.800 And actually,

00:25:30.820 if Labour can persuade that person

00:25:32.460 to stay off the Reform reservation, 0.97

00:25:35.080 it severely weakens reform.

00:25:37.580 They're either going to be

00:25:38.660 a hereditary lord

00:25:39.780 or the next Home Secretary,

00:25:41.240 depending on how they negotiate this.

00:25:43.840 Anyway, so that's not turned up.

00:25:45.640 So, I thought this was

00:25:46.960 an interesting set of polls by YouGov.

00:25:50.260 Voting intention amongst

00:25:51.600 the poorest and richest.

00:25:53.680 Well, doesn't this tell us

00:25:55.580 everything we need to see?

00:25:57.100 So, amongst the poorest,

00:25:58.220 Reform are a third of the vote

00:25:59.900 and plus 17% have swung to them.

00:26:05.560 And you can see that Labour is down

00:26:07.320 among the poorest minus 18%.

00:26:09.800 The Greens...

00:26:11.440 So, it's clear from this

00:26:13.520 that amongst the working class of Britain,

00:26:16.960 the Conservatives and Labour

00:26:18.100 have lost 24 points

00:26:19.560 and that's gone to Reform and the Greens.

00:26:22.220 If you are an old school

00:26:25.800 working man socialist,

00:26:28.120 how the hell do you wrap your head around this?

00:26:30.980 Because the old school narrative

00:26:32.280 when I was growing up

00:26:33.120 is that the Tories are for the rich

00:26:34.700 and Labour's for the poor.

00:26:35.880 Correct.

00:26:37.100 Here, I mean, quite clearly,

00:26:39.340 the rich are voting with their feet.

00:26:41.260 The rich want Labour.

00:26:43.140 Correct.

00:26:43.320 Because they're doing very well

00:26:44.320 out of this system.

00:26:45.120 They like the big state.

00:26:46.220 They like the wealth transfers

00:26:47.340 that the big state are making.

00:26:49.800 And the poorest...

00:26:50.740 I mean, not only shocking

00:26:52.600 is Reform the highest, 0.97

00:26:53.880 it's that Conservatives are second.

00:26:55.660 Yes.

00:26:56.880 Labour have lost 80...

00:26:58.520 I mean, more than half their own vote share

00:27:00.260 with the working class.

00:27:01.680 They're not making it with the Greens.

00:27:03.160 They were the party of the working class.

00:27:05.540 Like, hereditary.

00:27:06.540 Yes.

00:27:06.900 My grandfather and my great-grandfather

00:27:08.580 and my father

00:27:09.160 have all voted Labour,

00:27:10.080 so I've got to vote Labour

00:27:11.140 because that's the way that it works.

00:27:13.160 Well, the clue is in the name.

00:27:14.180 Originally,

00:27:14.980 they were the party of Labour,

00:27:16.020 meaning work.

00:27:17.640 Correct.

00:27:17.820 Of course, the people...

00:27:19.020 And actually,

00:27:19.360 there was a really funny

00:27:20.260 little documentary

00:27:21.920 in the Blair era

00:27:23.940 where John Prescott

00:27:25.480 went around the country

00:27:26.420 and spoke to voters

00:27:27.700 to find out where they were.

00:27:29.600 And he was trying to explain

00:27:31.360 the concept of class

00:27:32.920 to this council estate woman.

00:27:36.560 And so they kind of

00:27:38.240 stared at him open-mouthed

00:27:39.460 and said,

00:27:39.840 well, what class are we then?

00:27:41.440 And he said,

00:27:41.960 well, I would say

00:27:42.500 that you're working class.

00:27:43.900 And they all responded,

00:27:45.040 but none of us work.

00:27:45.980 Interesting.

00:27:50.680 Labour become

00:27:51.420 the party of

00:27:53.060 the richest

00:27:53.920 who are doing well

00:27:54.460 out of the system

00:27:55.080 and people on welfare.

00:27:56.540 Correct.

00:27:57.200 But also,

00:27:57.760 if you think about it,

00:27:58.620 what Tony Blair's

00:27:59.300 great victory was

00:28:00.220 was to take

00:28:01.740 the party of the working class

00:28:02.900 and conquer the middle class. 0.50

00:28:04.280 Yes.

00:28:04.640 The single-degree-owning, 0.89

00:28:06.720 affluent,

00:28:07.720 suburb-dwelling

00:28:08.900 middle class.

00:28:10.000 And that is a cohort,

00:28:14.180 that is a constituency

00:28:15.000 that won't last forever.

00:28:16.700 They've got diverging interests.

00:28:19.100 The labour-educated middle class

00:28:20.840 are interested in virtue signalling

00:28:22.560 and exterminating the working class. 0.97

00:28:25.220 They hate, 0.95

00:28:25.960 they hate the working class.

00:28:27.960 Because the working class 1.00

00:28:28.780 don't have their airy-fairy morals

00:28:30.520 and they don't understand

00:28:31.620 they're meant to be politically correct

00:28:32.780 in order to be a good person.

00:28:34.040 And so the working class 0.98

00:28:34.980 to the middle class

00:28:35.860 are cringe,

00:28:37.200 they hate them, 1.00

00:28:37.740 they're an embarrassment, 1.00

00:28:39.020 they're the football hooligans, 0.99

00:28:40.360 they want to see these people

00:28:41.560 essentially educated

00:28:42.620 out of existence.

00:28:44.000 They think,

00:28:44.980 this is why Tony Blair's

00:28:45.780 education, education, education,

00:28:47.180 I can make everyone like me.

00:28:49.420 That's what his plan was.

00:28:50.760 I can put everyone

00:28:51.620 in the same class as me.

00:28:52.740 We can get rid

00:28:53.800 of the working class.

00:28:55.140 Now the working class, 1.00

00:28:56.100 as you can see

00:28:56.580 by the very large number

00:28:57.880 of them who are voting reform

00:28:58.780 and conservatives,

00:29:00.560 are not going away,

00:29:02.160 actually.

00:29:02.860 They're not necessarily interested

00:29:04.420 in joining the labour plantation.

00:29:05.720 Well, they're only going away

00:29:06.980 from labour.

00:29:07.660 Exactly,

00:29:08.060 they're just going away

00:29:08.660 from labour.

00:29:09.300 And what's interesting

00:29:10.140 is a much smaller number

00:29:12.180 went to the Greens.

00:29:13.000 So that's the lefty vote,

00:29:14.880 right?

00:29:15.280 So the people who have fled

00:29:16.920 the Labour Party

00:29:17.660 at the moment,

00:29:18.160 18%,

00:29:19.240 I doubt very many conservatives

00:29:22.240 went to the Greens,

00:29:23.500 right?

00:29:24.040 I imagine that maybe 1%

00:29:25.680 of the conservatives

00:29:26.560 went to the Greens,

00:29:27.240 but that's the number

00:29:28.080 of lefties who have left

00:29:29.260 the Labour Party.

00:29:29.940 That's the Corbynista vote,

00:29:31.360 right?

00:29:31.940 Who are going to the Greens

00:29:32.800 because your party

00:29:34.300 is just not a thing.

00:29:36.100 But the rest of it

00:29:36.820 is going to be

00:29:37.500 socially conservative,

00:29:38.940 working class Northerners.

00:29:40.780 This reminds me

00:29:41.900 of that thing

00:29:42.620 on Rotten Tomatoes

00:29:43.720 where they got the

00:29:44.440 critic score

00:29:45.260 and the audience score.

00:29:46.240 And the perfect film

00:29:48.060 is the one that has

00:29:48.780 extremely low critic score

00:29:50.760 and extremely high audience.

00:29:52.380 Correct.

00:29:53.200 Because you know

00:29:53.760 it's not going to be woke

00:29:54.560 and it's actually quite good.

00:29:55.920 This is like a version of that

00:29:57.360 and Reform do come out

00:29:58.980 very well on this.

00:29:59.940 They are not appealing

00:30:01.800 to the people

00:30:02.340 who are doing well

00:30:02.920 out of this current

00:30:03.580 broken system.

00:30:04.580 They're appealing to the people

00:30:05.780 who are not doing well

00:30:06.700 out of it.

00:30:07.620 And the conservatives

00:30:08.560 are kind of level

00:30:09.580 and actually the Greens

00:30:11.460 come out as the worst 0.78

00:30:12.780 because they are

00:30:14.320 disproportionately favoured

00:30:16.440 by the

00:30:17.140 sort of 0.62

00:30:18.660 smug twats 1.00

00:30:19.680 as it were.

00:30:20.240 Yes.

00:30:20.560 But notice

00:30:21.120 again another thing here.

00:30:23.120 The working class

00:30:24.180 52%

00:30:25.640 voting for

00:30:26.400 right-wing parties.

00:30:28.560 The working class

00:30:30.000 42%

00:30:32.880 voting for

00:30:33.700 left-wing parties.

00:30:35.080 And that's including

00:30:36.260 the 15% 0.99

00:30:37.300 who are still

00:30:38.120 in the Labour Party.

00:30:38.920 Now

00:30:39.160 whether they are actually

00:30:41.240 left-wingers

00:30:42.140 as we understand

00:30:42.700 in the modern parlance

00:30:43.560 the working class

00:30:44.960 are much more reactionary.

00:30:46.780 They always have been

00:30:47.540 and they always will be

00:30:48.960 I suspect.

00:30:49.800 But then look at the richest.

00:30:51.440 That's a really

00:30:52.280 even breakdown.

00:30:53.620 Right.

00:30:54.080 Reform

00:30:54.600 are nearly

00:30:56.100 14 points ahead

00:30:57.780 no more than 14 points

00:30:59.920 16 points ahead

00:31:01.020 of the conservatives.

00:31:02.060 That's a really clear margin

00:31:03.760 in the working class.

00:31:06.040 Labour are only

00:31:06.660 four points ahead

00:31:07.360 of the Lib Dems

00:31:08.020 who themselves

00:31:08.500 are only three points

00:31:09.340 ahead of the Reform Party

00:31:10.280 who are the lowest

00:31:11.380 in the elites.

00:31:12.940 So the elite idea

00:31:14.580 that is completely shattered

00:31:16.140 as your point was earlier

00:31:18.420 it is not the elites

00:31:20.180 who are making

00:31:20.760 the future here

00:31:21.660 it is actually

00:31:22.320 the working class

00:31:23.040 who are making

00:31:24.340 the realignment happen

00:31:25.420 and the elites

00:31:26.260 haven't caught up.

00:31:26.880 But with a shattering

00:31:27.820 like this

00:31:28.380 you can understand

00:31:29.040 why they think

00:31:29.880 oh we just got to

00:31:30.540 piece ourselves

00:31:31.120 back together

00:31:31.700 the elite coherence

00:31:33.100 just needs to reform

00:31:34.120 and then we're golden.

00:31:35.360 Exactly.

00:31:36.100 So what Farage should do

00:31:37.340 is just lean into

00:31:38.420 whatever heavily

00:31:39.180 the conservative

00:31:40.520 working class voters

00:31:42.760 around the country

00:31:43.880 are interested in

00:31:44.940 and that is obviously

00:31:45.640 immigration.

00:31:46.300 Well there's another aspect

00:31:47.580 to this as well.

00:31:49.120 These polls

00:31:49.700 they only show you

00:31:50.980 the people who answered

00:31:51.820 I'm going to vote

00:31:52.440 for this or that.

00:31:54.080 What they don't show you

00:31:55.100 is all the people

00:31:55.780 who said

00:31:56.240 I don't care

00:31:57.040 not interested 1.00

00:31:57.720 stupid question 1.00

00:31:58.620 I don't vote 1.00

00:31:59.380 because those people

00:32:00.380 did show up

00:32:01.300 and vote for Brexit.

00:32:02.500 And that's about

00:32:02.940 a third of the country

00:32:03.660 it's about 30%

00:32:04.600 because a good

00:32:05.780 a good

00:32:06.300 election

00:32:07.220 is about 71% turnout

00:32:09.600 so 29% didn't turn out

00:32:11.300 a bad one

00:32:12.300 can be literally

00:32:13.000 59%

00:32:14.040 something like that

00:32:15.020 where you've got nearly

00:32:16.080 40% of the country

00:32:17.080 That is a huge chunk

00:32:18.460 of voters

00:32:19.060 who are just waiting

00:32:20.180 for something

00:32:20.840 credible to turn up.

00:32:22.320 Exactly.

00:32:23.200 And so the point being

00:32:24.520 ignore the elites

00:32:25.860 you don't need to take in

00:32:27.200 all of these other elites

00:32:27.980 that's not what people

00:32:28.740 are voting on

00:32:29.340 as you pointed out

00:32:30.560 they're not voting

00:32:31.160 on elite credibility

00:32:31.940 otherwise they wouldn't

00:32:33.080 be voting for Farage

00:32:34.040 he wouldn't be a credible

00:32:35.860 tenured politician

00:32:37.560 and yet still

00:32:39.280 working class people

00:32:40.600 are nearly twice as much

00:32:42.360 as the next competitor.

00:32:43.240 I suspect that his

00:32:44.660 vanity has led him

00:32:45.780 to believe that he has

00:32:46.520 joined the elites

00:32:47.400 and that's why he's

00:32:48.240 now credible.

00:32:49.160 Correct.

00:32:49.820 And the elite opinion

00:32:51.060 actually I think

00:32:52.040 is going to end up

00:32:52.660 following this

00:32:53.100 I mean 16%

00:32:53.940 that's a plus 6 swing

00:32:55.520 between December

00:32:57.260 and January

00:32:57.880 for the richest

00:32:59.060 in the country

00:32:59.680 to reform.

00:33:00.900 Elite opinion

00:33:01.560 will follow

00:33:02.460 what happens

00:33:03.360 because what's happening

00:33:04.760 is that the working

00:33:06.040 class people

00:33:06.620 are most

00:33:07.320 closely affected

00:33:09.000 by the problems.

00:33:10.340 The elites

00:33:10.880 are affected

00:33:12.320 far further down the line

00:33:13.480 but I'm sure

00:33:13.960 they're feeling the pinch

00:33:14.800 of the higher

00:33:15.520 electricity bills

00:33:16.200 the high petrol prices

00:33:16.920 the high grocery prices

00:33:17.800 the high house prices

00:33:18.860 they're saying

00:33:19.160 okay yeah we're doing well

00:33:20.520 but oh my god

00:33:21.520 that is a

00:33:21.980 you know

00:33:22.480 Well certainly the ones

00:33:23.240 who've got their own business

00:33:24.000 as opposed to being

00:33:24.940 a crango boss 1.00

00:33:26.080 on 300 grand a year.

00:33:27.340 Exactly.

00:33:27.880 If you're not just being

00:33:29.120 paid by the government

00:33:29.900 which you know

00:33:31.820 only 18% of the people

00:33:33.040 are on government wages

00:33:34.420 then you want

00:33:35.680 even if you're doing

00:33:36.600 very well

00:33:36.940 you must be looking

00:33:37.420 and going

00:33:37.680 okay this is

00:33:38.360 starting to pinch

00:33:39.240 maybe that Nigel Farage

00:33:40.780 fellow has a point.

00:33:42.520 So anyway

00:33:42.800 that's the voting

00:33:44.240 by income

00:33:44.900 and then you've got

00:33:45.700 voting by education

00:33:46.660 and this again

00:33:48.220 not terribly surprising

00:33:49.400 people of low education 0.98

00:33:51.840 levels

00:33:52.080 and who've got

00:33:52.540 GCSEs

00:33:53.480 42%

00:33:54.720 for Nigel Farage

00:33:55.700 why?

00:33:56.180 because they're not

00:33:57.340 trying to bring about 1.00

00:33:58.260 some stupid 1.00

00:33:59.860 abstract liberal utopia 1.00

00:34:01.440 what they're saying is

00:34:02.540 I want my country back

00:34:03.760 and that's

00:34:04.920 from Farage's messaging

00:34:05.920 and it's resonated

00:34:06.840 and again

00:34:07.480 look at Labour

00:34:08.120 look at Labour

00:34:09.540 with the working man

00:34:10.520 who didn't go to university

00:34:11.640 right

00:34:12.260 12%

00:34:13.420 they haven't been

00:34:15.820 indoctrinated enough

00:34:16.720 exactly

00:34:17.420 but also

00:34:18.680 they don't represent

00:34:19.920 those people anymore

00:34:20.880 they used to be

00:34:22.100 the party of the working man

00:34:23.240 so you always used to have

00:34:23.980 regional accents

00:34:24.920 on Labour leaders

00:34:26.600 but now you have

00:34:27.820 this

00:34:28.420 you know

00:34:28.860 very indistinguishable

00:34:30.600 like mono accent

00:34:33.280 I mean

00:34:33.660 Michael Foote

00:34:34.820 must be

00:34:35.340 turning in his grave

00:34:36.640 with numbers like this

00:34:37.820 all of them

00:34:38.300 I mean

00:34:38.540 God

00:34:38.840 can you even imagine

00:34:39.640 but even then

00:34:40.720 they've lost a lot

00:34:41.640 of elite credibility

00:34:42.400 because what do the Greens do

00:34:43.780 they're going to one up you

00:34:44.640 no

00:34:45.520 you said

00:34:46.660 we're for insane

00:34:47.480 lefty liberalism

00:34:48.340 yeah

00:34:48.480 the Greens

00:34:49.660 are only slightly

00:34:51.200 off Labour

00:34:51.760 because the Greens

00:34:53.000 are the student

00:34:53.680 politician vote

00:34:54.460 and Labour

00:34:55.380 are a bunch of

00:34:56.120 student politicians

00:34:56.920 they've been

00:34:57.680 yeah they all are

00:34:58.520 they've been playing

00:34:59.420 on this for a long time

00:35:00.420 and the Greens

00:35:01.140 are like

00:35:01.380 yeah but you're still

00:35:02.080 conceding something

00:35:02.920 to reality

00:35:03.580 we want the fiction

00:35:05.280 we want John Lennon's

00:35:06.640 Imagine

00:35:06.940 and Labour's like

00:35:07.500 okay but we are

00:35:08.480 a party of government

00:35:09.260 at the moment

00:35:09.840 and we've got to be

00:35:10.840 honest with you

00:35:11.360 we have to do this

00:35:12.160 this and this

00:35:12.520 and the Greens are like

00:35:13.060 well I don't want that

00:35:14.340 you know

00:35:14.640 and then

00:35:16.120 you've got the 1.00

00:35:17.420 stupid student lefties 1.00

00:35:18.660 who are like 1.00

00:35:18.960 yeah no I agree with that

00:35:20.260 well you do see a bit of that

00:35:21.640 so Andy Burnham

00:35:22.360 came out the other day

00:35:23.240 and he's

00:35:23.660 oh no no

00:35:24.620 it's a separate point

00:35:25.640 he came out

00:35:27.140 and he said

00:35:27.800 I don't know

00:35:28.500 why we're listening

00:35:29.160 to markets

00:35:29.880 you know

00:35:30.280 why are we having

00:35:30.880 to listen to these

00:35:31.500 bond people all the time

00:35:32.600 well the answer is

00:35:33.700 because they're

00:35:34.080 financing your government

00:35:34.940 but he dipped

00:35:36.340 into the whole

00:35:37.680 let's just go

00:35:38.920 with fantasy land

00:35:40.140 but he got reined in

00:35:41.600 when somebody pointed out

00:35:42.740 no you literally

00:35:43.820 cannot pay pensions

00:35:45.100 if you ignore the bond market

00:35:46.740 so he had to walk it back

00:35:47.840 the difference with the Greens

00:35:49.160 is that they can say 0.99

00:35:50.840 something ridiculous 0.98

00:35:51.520 and then continue 0.99

00:35:52.420 to inhabit that space

00:35:53.480 because nobody's going to

00:35:54.380 come along and say

00:35:54.940 no it doesn't work like that

00:35:55.860 well the reason

00:35:57.160 I think this is an interesting

00:35:58.340 way of looking at this

00:36:00.180 as well

00:36:00.520 is that

00:36:01.300 there are lots of people

00:36:02.520 who don't have

00:36:03.260 higher education

00:36:04.160 who earn lots of money

00:36:05.540 plumbers

00:36:07.100 builders

00:36:07.820 small businessmen

00:36:09.180 who literally just

00:36:10.400 enterprising young men

00:36:12.160 in council estates

00:36:13.320 who are like

00:36:13.700 no I'm going to get

00:36:14.600 an apprenticeship

00:36:15.020 get my job as a plumber

00:36:16.220 set up a little

00:36:16.820 LLC

00:36:17.660 you know

00:36:18.160 limited liability company

00:36:19.200 and I'm just going to

00:36:20.640 earn 100k a year

00:36:21.500 fixing stuff

00:36:22.240 right

00:36:22.500 okay you've got

00:36:23.520 low education level

00:36:24.660 officially by their numbers

00:36:25.920 but look how conservative

00:36:27.260 they are

00:36:27.740 63%

00:36:28.980 yes

00:36:29.640 63%

00:36:31.880 not even close

00:36:32.720 is it

00:36:33.040 it's just like

00:36:33.880 the fact that conservatives

00:36:36.020 have got nearly twice

00:36:36.880 as much with labour

00:36:37.600 it's because

00:36:38.360 no look

00:36:38.980 I don't care 1.00

00:36:39.600 about your stupid 1.00

00:36:40.660 abstract liberal 1.00

00:36:41.400 rationalisations

00:36:42.040 about human rights

00:36:42.680 and the SHR

00:36:43.140 I want my country

00:36:44.500 to be for me

00:36:45.440 and my children

00:36:46.440 and I want it

00:36:47.160 to be good

00:36:47.800 right

00:36:48.220 so just nowhere on this

00:36:49.940 nowhere

00:36:50.540 right

00:36:51.280 it's only in

00:36:52.500 the very high educated

00:36:53.820 abstract

00:36:54.600 it just goes to show

00:36:55.580 that everything they believe

00:36:56.460 is a luxury belief

00:36:57.580 and I presume that

00:36:58.300 9% has to be

00:36:59.680 the

00:37:00.040 Muslim vote

00:37:01.380 element of their coalition

00:37:02.640 I imagine it is

00:37:03.780 I imagine

00:37:05.400 in fact I hadn't even

00:37:06.280 thought about that

00:37:06.720 but that's probably true

00:37:07.320 and then you've got

00:37:08.280 men and women

00:37:08.700 and this is another

00:37:09.640 very interesting thing

00:37:10.700 now among men

00:37:11.740 not surprising that

00:37:13.200 men are overwhelmingly

00:37:14.380 reformed

00:37:14.940 right

00:37:15.120 men have just gone

00:37:15.900 not interested in the

00:37:17.460 Labour Party

00:37:17.960 but interestingly

00:37:20.000 they've lost

00:37:21.160 conservatives as well

00:37:22.200 and the Greens have got

00:37:22.980 you know

00:37:23.240 this 13% soy boys 0.51

00:37:25.060 but look at women 0.99

00:37:26.100 reform are the most

00:37:27.140 popular among women

00:37:28.040 and then it's the

00:37:30.200 conservatives

00:37:30.700 I take some comfort

00:37:34.420 in this

00:37:34.980 than that

00:37:35.520 if you watch a lot

00:37:36.780 of American politics

00:37:37.800 you'd expect that gap

00:37:38.860 to be bigger

00:37:39.620 yes

00:37:40.220 at least

00:37:41.200 there is a difference

00:37:42.260 but at least it's not

00:37:43.040 wild

00:37:43.440 so well done British 0.92

00:37:44.660 women for being less 1.00

00:37:45.560 insane than your 0.99

00:37:46.440 American counterparts 1.00

00:37:47.900 correct

00:37:48.480 still you know

00:37:49.700 40%

00:37:50.500 43% of women

00:37:51.520 are right wing

00:37:52.320 by this metric

00:37:53.100 right

00:37:53.420 yeah

00:37:53.640 and even then

00:37:54.360 the sort of like

00:37:55.120 the Liberal

00:37:55.660 Liberal Democrats

00:37:56.900 are kind of their own

00:37:57.780 thing

00:37:58.180 because the Liberal

00:37:59.080 Democrats are actually

00:37:59.880 in a position

00:38:00.360 where they can be

00:38:01.180 left wing on any

00:38:01.840 issue they want

00:38:02.440 but they can also be

00:38:03.620 like classically

00:38:04.440 liberal Thatcherites

00:38:05.700 whenever it suits them

00:38:07.460 right

00:38:07.660 so I tend to try

00:38:09.600 and discount the Lib Dems

00:38:10.680 because honestly

00:38:11.880 I don't really think

00:38:12.620 they really believe

00:38:13.400 anything

00:38:13.660 I think it's a social

00:38:14.580 club

00:38:14.860 right

00:38:15.260 I think it's a

00:38:16.260 you know

00:38:16.800 we're the southwest

00:38:17.400 of England

00:38:17.840 and that's how we

00:38:18.480 identify

00:38:18.880 so the fact that

00:38:20.220 the actual

00:38:21.940 like libtardism 1.00

00:38:23.300 of the Greens

00:38:24.240 and Labour Party

00:38:24.920 is actually outshined

00:38:26.580 by

00:38:27.100 reforming conservatives

00:38:28.220 among women

00:38:29.040 and let alone

00:38:30.180 among men

00:38:30.780 obviously

00:38:31.260 but that's

00:38:32.340 what is Labour

00:38:34.280 doing right

00:38:34.920 they've just lost

00:38:35.640 everyone

00:38:36.160 just absolutely

00:38:37.200 everyone

00:38:37.440 so the coalition

00:38:38.060 Tony Blair built

00:38:38.940 has not

00:38:39.560 not survived

00:38:41.640 right

00:38:41.960 and so let's

00:38:42.780 have a look

00:38:43.080 at this

00:38:43.820 right

00:38:44.000 so stats for

00:38:44.640 lefties

00:38:45.000 like well

00:38:45.880 the Labour Party

00:38:48.480 have only gone

00:38:48.840 3.5

00:38:49.580 out of the

00:38:50.080 17.4

00:38:50.800 of this one

00:38:51.380 YouGov poll

00:38:52.060 have only gone

00:38:52.880 3.5 to reform

00:38:54.000 and 6.2 to Greens

00:38:55.520 so contrary to

00:38:56.880 popular belief

00:38:57.500 Labour is not

00:38:58.100 struggling in the polls

00:38:58.740 because they're losing

00:38:59.280 votes to reform

00:39:00.300 even if they've

00:39:01.200 recovered all the votes

00:39:01.920 lost to reform

00:39:02.500 they'd still be on

00:39:03.060 21 cent

00:39:03.680 down double digits

00:39:04.540 instead they've

00:39:05.420 lost the bulk

00:39:06.060 of the votes

00:39:07.060 to the left

00:39:07.620 it's like

00:39:07.920 that feels like

00:39:08.540 cope to me

00:39:09.140 because the left

00:39:10.020 isn't in the

00:39:10.520 bloody top of the polls

00:39:11.540 like sorry

00:39:13.140 I just don't

00:39:13.820 I just don't

00:39:14.260 really agree

00:39:14.840 actually

00:39:15.760 considering what

00:39:16.660 we've seen

00:39:17.160 I don't

00:39:18.000 I don't think

00:39:18.580 that's true

00:39:19.140 right

00:39:19.720 I don't think

00:39:20.300 working class

00:39:20.800 people are going

00:39:21.360 left

00:39:21.620 now this is

00:39:22.340 the election

00:39:23.060 map from

00:39:23.600 2024

00:39:25.360 I mean to be

00:39:26.100 fair

00:39:26.340 the narrow

00:39:27.580 claim there

00:39:28.260 is the subset

00:39:29.060 of working

00:39:29.600 class people

00:39:30.280 who vote

00:39:31.680 Labour

00:39:32.260 by the last

00:39:33.640 election

00:39:34.100 some of them

00:39:34.640 appealed off

00:39:35.320 I mean

00:39:35.700 but yeah

00:39:36.220 it's a weak

00:39:36.600 claim

00:39:36.880 but he's

00:39:37.740 saying the

00:39:38.120 majority of

00:39:38.580 them have

00:39:38.820 gone to

00:39:39.140 the left

00:39:39.600 and it's

00:39:39.880 like no

00:39:40.100 I don't

00:39:40.320 think

00:39:40.460 that's

00:39:40.640 true

00:39:40.860 because I

00:39:41.720 mean look

00:39:41.960 at all

00:39:42.140 this area

00:39:42.560 right

00:39:42.780 this

00:39:43.060 the north

00:39:43.740 of England

00:39:44.120 that is

00:39:44.780 almost rock

00:39:45.840 solid

00:39:46.280 Labour

00:39:46.960 right

00:39:47.360 and as well

00:39:47.740 they called

00:39:48.120 it the

00:39:48.440 the red

00:39:49.320 war for a

00:39:49.740 reason

00:39:49.960 they called it

00:39:50.560 the red

00:39:50.780 war for a

00:39:51.140 reason

00:39:51.300 right

00:39:51.540 and again

00:39:52.040 parts of

00:39:52.440 Scotland

00:39:52.680 they're all

00:39:53.240 solidly Labour

00:39:53.920 right

00:39:54.520 now this is

00:39:55.660 just a

00:39:56.180 moderately

00:39:56.680 decent

00:39:57.340 reform

00:39:57.780 poll

00:39:58.100 like 31%

00:39:59.120 yep

00:39:59.600 that's that's

00:40:00.200 not terribly

00:40:00.900 great

00:40:01.300 but what

00:40:02.120 happened

00:40:02.560 they didn't

00:40:03.460 go to the

00:40:03.900 Greens

00:40:04.300 they didn't

00:40:04.980 go to the

00:40:05.340 Lib Dems

00:40:05.900 no they

00:40:06.320 went to

00:40:06.600 reform

00:40:06.980 right

00:40:07.400 the working

00:40:08.180 class

00:40:08.720 have gone

00:40:09.640 to reform

00:40:10.260 so Nigel

00:40:11.280 Farage's

00:40:11.860 core vote

00:40:12.680 that has

00:40:13.120 pushed him

00:40:13.560 over the

00:40:13.880 edge

00:40:14.160 that's beyond

00:40:14.760 his personal

00:40:15.820 magnetism

00:40:16.560 Farage has

00:40:17.020 probably got

00:40:17.300 about 10

00:40:17.780 15%

00:40:18.560 of just

00:40:19.220 I'm Nigel

00:40:19.740 Farage and

00:40:20.180 I'm

00:40:20.320 popular

00:40:20.680 but the

00:40:21.700 rest of

00:40:22.060 it is

00:40:22.500 built up

00:40:22.920 of

00:40:23.200 disenfranchised

00:40:24.240 working class

00:40:25.100 voters who

00:40:25.600 otherwise

00:40:26.040 historically would

00:40:27.040 have voted

00:40:27.360 for the Labour

00:40:27.760 Party

00:40:28.080 going straight

00:40:28.960 over to

00:40:29.260 reform

00:40:29.500 saying no

00:40:29.860 this is

00:40:30.120 the patriotic

00:40:30.700 party

00:40:31.000 and I'm

00:40:31.240 a patriot

00:40:31.620 I mean

00:40:32.080 the difference

00:40:32.540 between the

00:40:33.100 first map

00:40:33.540 and the

00:40:33.820 second map

00:40:34.340 is the

00:40:34.660 second map

00:40:35.320 yeah that

00:40:36.880 one looks

00:40:37.620 like a

00:40:38.380 rash where

00:40:39.180 the cream

00:40:39.640 has really

00:40:40.140 started to

00:40:40.760 work and

00:40:41.580 there's just

00:40:42.120 one or two

00:40:42.640 blotches 1.00

00:40:43.020 left but you

00:40:43.560 know it's

00:40:43.900 going to be

00:40:44.160 gone by

00:40:44.700 by the time

00:40:45.780 you need to

00:40:46.080 go to the

00:40:46.360 beach or

00:40:46.860 put in your

00:40:47.360 bikini

00:40:47.680 whatever it

00:40:48.160 is

00:40:48.320 correct

00:40:49.020 right

00:40:49.560 and so

00:40:51.540 even in

00:40:52.060 Manchester

00:40:52.500 right

00:40:53.020 Manchester

00:40:53.820 Labour

00:40:54.240 stronghold

00:40:54.660 for God

00:40:55.240 knows how

00:40:55.600 long

00:40:55.880 right

00:40:56.540 but no

00:40:58.480 Manchester's

00:40:59.620 going in

00:40:59.880 form

00:40:59.980 I think

00:41:00.440 he's got

00:41:00.620 a map

00:41:00.900 Manchester

00:41:01.200 is going

00:41:01.600 in

00:41:01.800 form

00:41:02.020 yeah I

00:41:02.280 think

00:41:02.400 he's got

00:41:03.340 a map

00:41:03.660 somewhere

00:41:03.880 but obviously

00:41:04.260 haven't got

00:41:04.540 it

00:41:04.680 but here's

00:41:05.220 a find out

00:41:05.720 now

00:41:06.000 poll

00:41:06.560 but voting

00:41:07.600 intention

00:41:07.960 in Manchester

00:41:08.440 it's like

00:41:08.760 sorry

00:41:08.980 a lot

00:41:09.740 of that

00:41:10.000 36%

00:41:10.740 would have

00:41:11.780 been Labour

00:41:12.240 right

00:41:12.840 oh yeah

00:41:13.380 now a lot

00:41:13.900 of the Greens

00:41:14.480 18%

00:41:15.080 would have

00:41:15.320 been Labour

00:41:15.640 as well

00:41:16.140 sorry

00:41:18.120 I really

00:41:19.180 have to

00:41:20.120 say

00:41:20.640 even if

00:41:21.180 the YouGov

00:41:21.580 stats are

00:41:22.080 saying that

00:41:22.600 I don't

00:41:23.100 think they're

00:41:23.440 capturing

00:41:23.800 what's

00:41:24.060 actually

00:41:24.420 happening

00:41:24.640 even if

00:41:25.340 you add

00:41:25.840 all of

00:41:27.100 the Greens

00:41:27.600 onto the

00:41:28.400 Labour

00:41:28.600 position

00:41:29.040 it doesn't

00:41:29.660 get you to

00:41:30.040 what Labour

00:41:30.800 have historically

00:41:31.400 done in

00:41:31.740 Manchester

00:41:32.060 that was

00:41:32.460 their city

00:41:33.260 yeah

00:41:33.800 you couldn't

00:41:34.800 take it off

00:41:35.160 I mean

00:41:35.400 literally

00:41:35.760 it was an

00:41:36.080 industrial

00:41:36.560 heartland

00:41:37.280 the Labour

00:41:38.140 party

00:41:38.460 was founded

00:41:39.120 in this

00:41:39.580 country

00:41:39.820 to represent

00:41:40.440 industrial

00:41:41.000 workers

00:41:41.460 which is

00:41:42.060 why it's

00:41:42.340 always been

00:41:42.580 a basically

00:41:43.060 pseudo-socialist

00:41:44.160 commie

00:41:44.460 party

00:41:44.820 they think

00:41:46.400 of them

00:41:46.620 as being

00:41:46.860 the proletarian

00:41:47.840 the proletariat

00:41:49.240 and that was

00:41:49.760 what they're

00:41:49.980 for

00:41:50.120 well Nigel

00:41:50.900 Farage

00:41:51.260 now has

00:41:51.660 those voters

00:41:52.260 and so

00:41:52.940 what do

00:41:53.220 they do

00:41:53.680 right

00:41:54.080 so anyway

00:41:54.920 what we can

00:41:56.720 see from

00:41:57.100 all of this

00:41:57.540 is complete

00:41:58.560 desperation

00:41:59.080 from the

00:41:59.440 Labour

00:41:59.600 party

00:41:59.940 Labour

00:42:01.000 are on

00:42:01.520 borrowed

00:42:01.880 time

00:42:02.340 everyone

00:42:03.020 hates

00:42:03.580 them 0.96

00:42:03.800 here's

00:42:04.320 just

00:42:04.500 the

00:42:04.720 latest

00:42:05.120 approval

00:42:05.620 rating

00:42:05.920 for the

00:42:06.420 government

00:42:06.720 at the

00:42:07.240 moment

00:42:07.480 68%

00:42:08.780 disapprove

00:42:09.860 13%

00:42:11.080 approve

00:42:11.660 18%

00:42:13.040 no opinion

00:42:14.080 either way

00:42:14.820 right

00:42:15.160 I mean

00:42:16.060 the last

00:42:16.720 time we

00:42:16.960 checked

00:42:17.120 I think

00:42:17.340 it was

00:42:17.440 about

00:42:17.600 15%

00:42:18.260 disapprove

00:42:19.120 so that's

00:42:19.960 gone down

00:42:20.540 it's just

00:42:21.440 never

00:42:21.680 and as I

00:42:23.000 remember from

00:42:23.360 two episodes

00:42:23.860 ago

00:42:24.080 I think

00:42:25.160 you said

00:42:25.420 that 18% 0.96

00:42:26.100 of the

00:42:26.420 British

00:42:26.580 population

00:42:27.040 worked for

00:42:27.420 the state

00:42:27.860 correct

00:42:28.240 so only

00:42:30.140 about

00:42:30.400 two-thirds

00:42:30.960 of them

00:42:31.460 agree that

00:42:32.200 Labour

00:42:32.400 are doing

00:42:32.700 a good

00:42:32.900 job

00:42:33.240 maybe

00:42:34.000 three-quarters

00:42:34.640 should we

00:42:34.940 say

00:42:35.100 but he's

00:42:35.860 losing the

00:42:36.840 NHS

00:42:37.200 workers

00:42:37.680 as well

00:42:38.100 and we

00:42:39.600 see the

00:42:39.860 further

00:42:40.040 collapse

00:42:40.400 everywhere

00:42:40.840 right

00:42:41.080 here's

00:42:41.360 Scotland

00:42:41.680 again

00:42:42.200 Labour

00:42:42.660 if you

00:42:43.140 look

00:42:43.340 back

00:42:44.460 previously

00:42:44.900 where was

00:42:45.200 that map

00:42:45.640 Labour

00:42:46.480 does great

00:42:46.980 in Scotland

00:42:47.380 right

00:42:48.000 but no

00:42:49.480 not anymore

00:42:50.020 Labour

00:42:51.880 it's between

00:42:53.120 the SNP

00:42:53.580 and reform

00:42:54.000 now in

00:42:54.640 this

00:42:54.900 in Fife

00:42:55.880 where Labour

00:42:57.140 their votes

00:42:57.740 collapsed

00:42:58.100 and the

00:42:58.380 Conservative

00:42:58.720 vote

00:42:59.000 has also

00:42:59.760 collapsed

00:43:00.140 now

00:43:00.320 Conservatives

00:43:00.800 never did

00:43:01.120 great

00:43:01.340 in Scotland

00:43:01.740 but reform

00:43:02.760 just storming

00:43:03.320 in there

00:43:03.540 with over

00:43:04.020 a quarter

00:43:04.380 of the

00:43:04.660 votes

00:43:04.940 putting them

00:43:05.420 as the

00:43:05.640 second

00:43:05.860 party

00:43:06.200 there

00:43:06.420 so right

00:43:07.060 so our

00:43:07.560 theory

00:43:07.960 that it

00:43:08.760 is

00:43:08.960 the

00:43:09.560 realignment

00:43:10.000 is being

00:43:10.440 done by

00:43:10.820 the voting

00:43:11.180 public

00:43:11.500 is correct

00:43:12.140 I think

00:43:12.540 and this

00:43:14.040 is them

00:43:14.360 in Wales

00:43:14.780 10%

00:43:15.900 in Wales

00:43:16.620 10%

00:43:18.840 again it's

00:43:19.280 down to

00:43:19.580 the quote

00:43:20.580 unquote

00:43:20.780 nationalist

00:43:21.140 party

00:43:21.540 and reform

00:43:22.660 so

00:43:24.220 yeah

00:43:24.940 and people

00:43:25.760 don't understand

00:43:26.500 what Plague

00:43:26.920 Cymru actually

00:43:27.420 stands for

00:43:27.940 as we've

00:43:28.240 seen in

00:43:28.520 previous

00:43:28.800 episodes

00:43:29.180 but 10%

00:43:30.680 that is

00:43:31.780 brutal

00:43:32.080 and this

00:43:32.960 was one of

00:43:33.460 Tony Blair's

00:43:33.980 bright ideas

00:43:34.680 was devolution

00:43:35.340 to the

00:43:35.880 regions

00:43:36.800 to Scotland

00:43:37.320 and Wales

00:43:37.920 it got him

00:43:39.700 short term

00:43:40.720 popularity

00:43:41.320 but he

00:43:42.100 kicked the

00:43:42.440 can down

00:43:42.860 the road

00:43:43.160 over the

00:43:43.480 cliff

00:43:43.740 for the

00:43:44.020 future

00:43:44.680 Labour

00:43:44.920 leaders

00:43:45.260 oh yeah

00:43:46.100 absolutely

00:43:46.780 Labour is a

00:43:47.640 dead party

00:43:48.120 I mean they

00:43:48.360 get nothing

00:43:48.860 you know

00:43:50.220 like how

00:43:50.780 many

00:43:50.940 have 96

00:43:51.940 seats

00:43:52.240 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

00:43:53.340 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

00:43:54.540 seats

00:43:54.980 doesn't even register

00:43:56.160 it's going to be

00:43:56.540 that's only with

00:43:57.460 the PR element

00:43:58.160 that kicks in

00:43:58.720 oh yeah

00:43:59.400 good point

00:43:59.920 but it's going to

00:44:01.000 be like you know

00:44:01.600 in Cardiff

00:44:02.460 there'll be a

00:44:02.920 couple of tiny

00:44:03.460 like constituencies

00:44:04.280 that don't show

00:44:05.120 up on the map

00:44:05.640 the point

00:44:07.560 they're done

00:44:08.320 same with the

00:44:08.840 Conservatives

00:44:09.320 they're done

00:44:09.900 the Conservatives

00:44:11.000 used to have

00:44:11.360 quite a good

00:44:11.700 showing in Wales

00:44:12.220 as well

00:44:12.660 so it's like

00:44:13.500 no you're done

00:44:14.160 it is over

00:44:14.840 the new paradigm

00:44:15.540 is here

00:44:15.920 and you need

00:44:16.640 to understand it

00:44:17.280 so let's talk

00:44:17.800 about Andy

00:44:18.600 Burnham

00:44:18.900 because he is

00:44:19.700 essentially

00:44:20.220 Labour's last

00:44:21.540 gasp at 0.93

00:44:22.540 basically political

00:44:23.780 relevance

00:44:24.180 now a lot of

00:44:25.600 people don't know

00:44:26.080 who Andy

00:44:26.400 Burnham is

00:44:26.820 but 71% of

00:44:27.880 people who know

00:44:28.460 who he is

00:44:29.440 is at least

00:44:30.520 something

00:44:31.520 I mean I guess

00:44:32.020 that makes him

00:44:32.380 a national

00:44:32.740 politician

00:44:33.200 right

00:44:33.820 I mean compared

00:44:34.920 to who

00:44:35.680 I mean

00:44:36.140 where's

00:44:37.460 streeting

00:44:38.020 yeah

00:44:38.520 he's a lot

00:44:39.660 more well

00:44:40.020 known than

00:44:40.300 him

00:44:40.520 right

00:44:41.180 and Andy

00:44:42.120 Burnham

00:44:42.360 is also

00:44:42.920 I mean he's

00:44:44.260 not unpopular

00:44:44.980 which is a good

00:44:46.100 start for a

00:44:46.620 British politician

00:44:47.320 as you can see

00:44:48.200 he's got a 27%

00:44:49.180 approval rating

00:44:49.800 and what was

00:44:51.240 that

00:44:51.440 I would say

00:44:53.500 23%

00:44:54.480 dislike

00:44:55.540 so he's on

00:44:56.440 you know

00:44:56.780 single figures

00:44:57.880 in positive

00:44:58.800 now that's

00:44:59.540 really unusual

00:45:00.080 for a British

00:45:00.700 politician

00:45:01.220 most British

00:45:02.120 politicians

00:45:02.580 are just

00:45:02.940 entirely

00:45:03.280 negative

00:45:03.760 entirely

00:45:05.260 negative

00:45:05.720 yeah I mean

00:45:06.820 he's in a bit

00:45:07.760 of a special

00:45:08.220 situation

00:45:08.800 where I

00:45:09.760 don't dislike

00:45:10.900 him because

00:45:11.500 he's in

00:45:12.040 Manchester

00:45:12.420 and he's

00:45:13.140 nowhere near

00:45:13.800 me and

00:45:14.140 therefore I

00:45:14.500 have no

00:45:14.720 particular

00:45:15.040 reason

00:45:15.460 to dislike

00:45:15.940 him

00:45:15.960 yeah

00:45:17.040 whatever

00:45:18.260 now just

00:45:19.240 to be clear

00:45:19.800 he seems

00:45:20.880 to be quite

00:45:21.240 a popular

00:45:22.060 mayor of

00:45:22.480 Manchester

00:45:22.900 right

00:45:23.340 as far

00:45:24.420 as I can

00:45:24.820 tell

00:45:25.080 I'm not an

00:45:25.540 expert on his

00:45:26.020 political career

00:45:26.820 but I had a

00:45:27.300 look into it

00:45:27.880 he's done

00:45:29.300 a bunch

00:45:29.800 of things

00:45:30.400 that people

00:45:31.560 in Manchester

00:45:32.040 are happy

00:45:32.420 with and he

00:45:33.300 seems to be

00:45:33.640 taking his job

00:45:34.180 very seriously

00:45:34.760 I honestly

00:45:35.620 don't follow

00:45:36.040 Manchester

00:45:36.440 politics but

00:45:37.280 I get the

00:45:37.820 impression

00:45:38.100 you're right

00:45:38.520 why would

00:45:38.980 you

00:45:39.160 but that's

00:45:40.060 the point

00:45:40.400 and so

00:45:41.700 when a

00:45:43.160 Manchester

00:45:43.660 by-election

00:45:44.620 came up

00:45:45.320 because

00:45:45.760 Andrew Gwynn

00:45:47.000 here from

00:45:48.000 Gorton and

00:45:48.900 Denton

00:45:49.400 was suspended

00:45:51.000 from Labour

00:45:51.480 for based

00:45:52.280 messages

00:45:52.780 really

00:45:53.660 not even

00:45:54.220 joking

00:45:54.480 based

00:45:54.720 messages

00:45:55.060 you know

00:45:55.280 what you

00:45:55.440 actually said

00:45:55.860 something

00:45:57.460 they don't

00:45:58.700 give us

00:45:58.920 the exact

00:45:59.440 remigration

00:46:00.360 now

00:46:00.720 they've all

00:46:01.120 got to

00:46:01.340 go

00:46:01.700 where was

00:46:03.020 it

00:46:03.160 they do

00:46:03.760 say

00:46:04.300 they thought

00:46:06.480 an Anglican

00:46:07.060 priest should 1.00

00:46:07.420 be burned 1.00

00:46:07.780 on the 0.90

00:46:08.000 bonfire

00:46:08.480 for being

00:46:09.000 woke

00:46:09.340 there was

00:46:11.020 a few

00:46:12.640 other things

00:46:13.220 as well

00:46:13.660 but

00:46:14.420 just him

00:46:16.060 being racist

00:46:17.100 and sexist 0.82

00:46:17.600 basically

00:46:18.060 and so

00:46:19.280 you should have

00:46:19.740 made him

00:46:20.000 leader

00:46:20.260 well yeah

00:46:20.920 exactly

00:46:21.260 he probably

00:46:22.060 would know

00:46:22.340 quite well

00:46:22.620 but instead

00:46:23.060 he stepped

00:46:24.040 down

00:46:24.340 right

00:46:24.680 and so

00:46:25.140 that meant

00:46:25.620 oh right

00:46:26.300 there's a seat

00:46:27.140 open

00:46:27.440 now

00:46:28.020 what's that

00:46:28.740 doing

00:46:28.900 oh yeah

00:46:29.260 right

00:46:29.500 okay

00:46:29.680 we'll get to

00:46:30.740 that

00:46:30.960 that meant

00:46:31.740 there is

00:46:31.980 there is a seat

00:46:32.700 open

00:46:33.020 now Andy

00:46:34.680 Burnham

00:46:35.060 you will

00:46:35.780 remember

00:46:36.320 if I can

00:46:36.980 where is it

00:46:38.020 screw it

00:46:38.900 spoiling a bunch 0.63

00:46:39.720 of stuff

00:46:39.940 now

00:46:40.180 Andy Burnham

00:46:41.300 has been

00:46:42.240 floated as

00:46:43.880 the one name

00:46:44.680 that can save

00:46:45.540 Labour

00:46:45.820 because he's

00:46:47.680 not under the

00:46:48.160 pole

00:46:48.360 underwater in the

00:46:49.140 poles

00:46:49.400 he's

00:46:50.020 he's being

00:46:50.600 talked about

00:46:50.960 in fact

00:46:51.220 I watched

00:46:51.600 a bunch

00:46:51.900 of

00:46:52.100 these sort

00:46:53.380 of Westminster

00:46:53.840 podcasts about

00:46:54.660 this

00:46:54.880 and they talk

00:46:55.600 about him

00:46:55.920 like he's

00:46:56.300 some political

00:46:57.120 prodigy

00:46:58.820 or something

00:46:59.420 right

00:46:59.980 and it's like

00:47:00.460 no he seems

00:47:01.440 nice

00:47:01.960 you know

00:47:02.340 he seems

00:47:02.660 like a fairly

00:47:03.140 alright guy

00:47:03.840 but he's

00:47:04.720 you know

00:47:05.000 like with

00:47:05.540 the instant

00:47:06.320 with the

00:47:07.000 bond markets

00:47:07.520 and stuff

00:47:07.900 I don't think

00:47:08.620 he's actually

00:47:09.280 the sharpest

00:47:09.860 political actor

00:47:10.600 I think he's

00:47:11.400 just a kind

00:47:11.820 of well

00:47:12.080 he wouldn't be

00:47:12.160 in Labour

00:47:12.500 if he was

00:47:12.960 but yeah

00:47:13.320 I think he's

00:47:13.720 well I mean

00:47:14.180 he's not

00:47:14.620 Tony Blair

00:47:15.100 right

00:47:15.360 I think he's

00:47:16.320 just a kind

00:47:16.760 of well-meaning

00:47:17.220 guy who's

00:47:17.800 done quite a

00:47:18.260 good job

00:47:18.540 in Manchester

00:47:19.120 and he sees

00:47:21.100 that the Labour

00:47:21.720 Party is heading

00:47:22.280 towards a cliff

00:47:22.920 all the signs

00:47:24.260 of a historic

00:47:25.200 wipeout

00:47:25.700 so the Labour

00:47:26.280 Party will never

00:47:26.920 be a party

00:47:27.360 of government

00:47:27.680 again

00:47:27.960 he's like

00:47:28.480 okay I have

00:47:28.980 to step in

00:47:29.520 to save this

00:47:30.160 and how can

00:47:32.300 he get there

00:47:32.940 well as the

00:47:33.400 Mayor of Manchester

00:47:34.000 he can't become

00:47:34.480 the party leader

00:47:35.060 he's got to

00:47:35.420 become an MP

00:47:35.880 so this

00:47:36.980 seat in Gorton

00:47:39.080 and Denton

00:47:39.560 turning up

00:47:40.020 oh couldn't

00:47:40.960 have been

00:47:41.400 better timed

00:47:42.480 well apart

00:47:43.660 from I believe

00:47:44.440 in the Labour

00:47:44.820 Party

00:47:45.160 as I think

00:47:45.860 it says here

00:47:46.420 it's the

00:47:46.720 National Executive

00:47:47.400 that have to

00:47:48.820 approve the list

00:47:49.620 and so the

00:47:50.020 question is

00:47:50.500 who controls

00:47:51.020 the National

00:47:51.400 Executive

00:47:51.780 and the answer

00:47:52.580 to that is

00:47:52.880 Keir Starmer

00:47:53.380 yes

00:47:54.060 and Morgan

00:47:54.880 McSweeney

00:47:55.340 yes

00:47:55.880 and so

00:47:56.500 as Politics

00:47:57.180 UK

00:47:57.420 here

00:47:57.980 look there

00:47:58.640 is a path

00:47:59.080 for Andy

00:47:59.340 Burnham

00:47:59.580 to stand

00:47:59.880 as an MP

00:48:00.220 and look

00:48:01.040 how convoluted

00:48:02.040 this is

00:48:02.520 right

00:48:02.840 you would need

00:48:03.460 approval

00:48:03.780 from Labour's

00:48:04.480 NEC

00:48:04.840 which is widely

00:48:05.900 seen as supportive

00:48:06.480 of Keir Starmer

00:48:06.920 completely his

00:48:07.660 instrument by the way

00:48:09.260 the NEC could

00:48:10.660 block him outright

00:48:11.260 by imposing

00:48:12.080 an all women

00:48:12.560 shortlist

00:48:13.080 to the seat

00:48:13.820 because most Labour

00:48:14.540 MPs are men

00:48:15.260 so great

00:48:15.980 Labour MPs

00:48:17.620 supportive of Burnham

00:48:18.340 could challenge this

00:48:19.240 and try and

00:48:20.060 overturn that move

00:48:21.000 if approved and

00:48:22.400 selected as the

00:48:23.060 candidate

00:48:23.320 he'd have to

00:48:23.800 step down as

00:48:24.260 Greater Manchester

00:48:24.800 Mayor

00:48:25.020 which would

00:48:25.340 trigger a

00:48:26.340 mayoral

00:48:26.820 by-election

00:48:27.340 and he would

00:48:29.300 still have to

00:48:29.820 win the

00:48:30.280 by-election

00:48:30.780 at a time

00:48:31.900 where there is

00:48:32.380 no such thing

00:48:33.140 as a safe

00:48:33.640 Labour seat

00:48:34.220 I mean he

00:48:34.880 might be to do

00:48:35.440 it

00:48:35.680 but risky

00:48:37.800 very risky

00:48:39.260 yes

00:48:39.620 right

00:48:39.900 and this kind

00:48:40.520 of all goes

00:48:40.860 back to the

00:48:41.280 original point

00:48:42.000 that I

00:48:42.280 started with

00:48:43.200 is they

00:48:44.280 all assume

00:48:45.120 that legitimacy

00:48:46.260 flows from

00:48:47.080 elite

00:48:47.400 and therefore

00:48:48.600 you just need

00:48:49.840 to change

00:48:50.380 leaders around

00:48:51.220 yes

00:48:51.720 and you can

00:48:53.080 see the Tories

00:48:53.660 they're about

00:48:54.060 to do this

00:48:54.600 and actually

00:48:55.200 Labour will

00:48:55.660 probably do it

00:48:56.220 in the next

00:48:57.020 18 months

00:48:57.620 they think

00:48:58.120 okay all

00:48:59.100 our legitimacy

00:48:59.800 is used up

00:49:00.580 we swap out

00:49:01.180 the leader

00:49:01.580 and we get a

00:49:02.500 bump

00:49:02.740 and actually

00:49:03.220 no I don't

00:49:03.620 think that

00:49:03.860 works

00:49:04.140 there's no

00:49:04.940 impact

00:49:05.260 I think

00:49:05.800 that time

00:49:06.220 has passed

00:49:07.020 Angela Rayner

00:49:08.780 has defied

00:49:09.900 Keir Starmer

00:49:10.340 by backing

00:49:11.220 Burnham

00:49:11.740 but it's not

00:49:12.660 going to matter

00:49:13.060 everyone's going

00:49:14.080 for it by the way

00:49:14.680 George Gadaway

00:49:15.760 yeah

00:49:16.100 oh Zach Polanski

00:49:16.980 as well

00:49:17.300 well this was

00:49:17.840 rumoured

00:49:18.300 right

00:49:18.600 so now that

00:49:21.900 would have been

00:49:22.320 a hell of a

00:49:23.000 fight right

00:49:23.660 but actually

00:49:24.500 that didn't

00:49:25.060 happen

00:49:25.460 so Zach Polanski

00:49:26.800 they are going

00:49:27.680 to heavily

00:49:28.360 contest it

00:49:29.120 but it's not

00:49:30.660 going to be

00:49:30.880 Zach Polanski

00:49:31.460 because although

00:49:33.160 we'll get to the

00:49:33.920 polling in a minute

00:49:34.400 it's going to be

00:49:34.920 competitive

00:49:35.360 right okay

00:49:36.420 I don't actually

00:49:37.820 know who's going

00:49:38.320 to contest this

00:49:38.920 right

00:49:39.280 well Zach Polanski

00:49:40.440 himself is not

00:49:41.040 going to do it

00:49:41.400 they're going to

00:49:41.840 they're going to

00:49:42.180 get

00:49:42.320 it's very likely

00:49:43.800 to be a lady

00:49:44.320 called Hannah

00:49:44.760 Spencer who's the

00:49:45.600 leader of the

00:49:46.120 Green Group on

00:49:47.020 Trafford Council

00:49:47.740 who stood against

00:49:48.780 Burnham in the

00:49:49.240 2024 mayoral

00:49:50.280 election

00:49:50.860 and

00:49:52.260 if we go back

00:49:54.840 because I

00:49:55.100 misaligned it

00:49:55.820 it's going to be

00:49:56.440 Matt Goodwin for

00:49:57.180 reform

00:49:57.560 which is very

00:49:59.780 interesting

00:50:00.400 what's interesting

00:50:02.280 about that

00:50:03.100 is who it's

00:50:04.580 not

00:50:05.000 right

00:50:06.420 Zia Yusuf

00:50:07.540 yes

00:50:08.160 right

00:50:08.640 who is the

00:50:09.480 most powerful

00:50:10.560 person in

00:50:11.040 reform who is

00:50:11.760 not an MP

00:50:12.340 yes

00:50:14.060 and who is

00:50:15.380 doing the best

00:50:15.960 in Manchester

00:50:16.560 in the polls

00:50:17.060 at the moment

00:50:17.520 reform

00:50:19.280 so why isn't

00:50:20.160 it Zia Yusuf

00:50:20.820 well

00:50:22.160 an answer does

00:50:24.260 spring to mind

00:50:24.960 but I seem to

00:50:25.680 think that

00:50:26.020 Manchester has

00:50:26.620 quite a strong

00:50:27.600 Muslim population

00:50:28.980 unless they feel

00:50:30.900 that that is

00:50:31.800 a factor

00:50:33.840 that the

00:50:34.580 still

00:50:35.640 very slight

00:50:36.760 majority

00:50:37.340 actually I don't

00:50:38.000 know this

00:50:38.260 particular seat

00:50:39.020 let me let me

00:50:39.700 quick I didn't

00:50:40.200 check actually

00:50:40.720 let me check

00:50:41.200 but I don't

00:50:42.180 it really depends

00:50:45.040 on which

00:50:45.440 constituency in

00:50:46.360 Manchester

00:50:46.800 because some of

00:50:47.460 them are

00:50:47.720 overwhelmingly Muslim 1.00

00:50:48.680 and some of

00:50:49.380 them actually

00:50:49.720 still have a

00:50:50.340 white working

00:50:50.800 class population

00:50:51.580 so that is the

00:50:53.060 only swing factor

00:50:54.020 that I can think

00:50:54.720 of because on

00:50:55.300 rhetoric having

00:50:56.120 heard both of

00:50:56.860 them they're

00:50:57.800 actually pretty

00:50:58.340 aligned when it

00:50:59.000 comes to the

00:50:59.440 strength of the

00:50:59.900 rhetoric they put

00:51:00.440 out very

00:51:01.060 similar very

00:51:01.960 similar I mean

00:51:02.480 like Zia Yusuf 0.74

00:51:04.280 honestly he's not

00:51:05.380 been terrible I've

00:51:06.240 got to hand it to

00:51:07.600 him on this and

00:51:09.100 so and this just

00:51:11.500 plays to the point

00:51:12.100 about secretarian

00:51:12.820 politics in in in

00:51:14.300 Britain because if 0.72

00:51:15.040 this had come up

00:51:15.760 10 years ago I

00:51:16.480 wouldn't have

00:51:16.880 bothered raising

00:51:17.580 the ethnicity of

00:51:18.840 the candidate

00:51:19.380 because I mean it

00:51:21.380 wasn't really a

00:51:21.940 factor but today it

00:51:22.920 absolutely is a

00:51:23.720 factor yes I

00:51:25.540 suspect that this is

00:51:26.480 an area that has

00:51:27.260 more white British 0.76

00:51:28.300 people because

00:51:29.220 well the fact that

00:51:29.820 they chose Matt

00:51:30.480 Goodwin would

00:51:31.120 tend to suggest

00:51:32.200 and the fact that

00:51:33.240 they previously

00:51:33.720 had a straight

00:51:34.460 white man as

00:51:35.600 their MP right so

00:51:36.980 that that's

00:51:37.740 interesting so it

00:51:39.360 wasn't Mothin

00:51:39.860 Alley or anything

00:51:40.360 like that who was

00:51:42.320 going for the

00:51:42.740 Greens it's just

00:51:43.220 going to be some

00:51:43.600 rando and the

00:51:47.000 Labour leadership

00:51:47.600 the Labour Party

00:51:48.960 membership wants

00:51:50.140 Burnham they like

00:51:51.880 Burnham Burnham is

00:51:53.620 the most popular

00:51:54.280 politician in the

00:51:55.240 Labour Party among

00:51:56.180 Labour members he's

00:51:57.760 also one of the few

00:51:58.640 Labour politicians who

00:51:59.660 has a one of the

00:52:00.940 few politicians in

00:52:01.620 the country who

00:52:02.580 has a positive

00:52:03.740 overall net rating

00:52:05.860 and he has been

00:52:07.940 positive in his role

00:52:09.740 as the Manchester

00:52:10.460 Mayor so if anyone

00:52:11.820 had the name

00:52:12.760 recognition the

00:52:13.540 clout to actually

00:52:14.700 swing a Manchester

00:52:16.120 constituency it's got

00:52:18.340 to be Burnham

00:52:19.020 yes which would

00:52:20.760 immediately put him

00:52:21.500 as a threat to

00:52:22.040 Keir Starmer so

00:52:22.720 what is the game

00:52:24.380 that Andy Burnham

00:52:25.100 is playing here

00:52:25.560 because he would

00:52:26.040 have known the

00:52:26.780 Labour Party rules and

00:52:27.860 he would have known

00:52:28.420 that Morgan McSweeney

00:52:29.440 can block him so

00:52:30.400 unless he's just

00:52:31.080 doing this to

00:52:31.740 embarrass the

00:52:34.060 proceduralism of

00:52:35.400 Morgan McSweeney

00:52:36.400 and Keir Starmer

00:52:37.500 I don't quite get

00:52:39.080 what his extra

00:52:39.720 angle is here

00:52:40.520 no idea but he

00:52:41.560 wrote to the

00:52:42.180 NEC asking for

00:52:43.380 permission to

00:52:44.060 enter and they

00:52:45.960 were like well

00:52:46.560 we might need a

00:52:47.760 BAME shortlist 1.00

00:52:48.560 might need an

00:52:49.900 all-women

00:52:50.280 shortlist

00:52:50.780 isn't that

00:52:51.200 convenient

00:52:51.640 it's one of those

00:52:54.140 things we've got

00:52:54.960 more white men 0.97

00:52:55.640 than BAME we've 1.00

00:52:56.280 got more men

00:52:56.880 than women 0.99

00:52:57.320 I don't know

00:52:58.760 we've got this

00:52:59.060 enormous list of

00:53:00.140 rules over here

00:53:01.060 that when it

00:53:01.860 suits us we can

00:53:02.560 go and pick

00:53:03.080 that one

00:53:03.800 and it just so

00:53:05.540 happens to align

00:53:06.340 with whatever the

00:53:07.040 leadership happens

00:53:07.740 to want

00:53:08.180 yeah and so

00:53:09.560 they blocked him

00:53:10.100 obviously this came

00:53:12.680 directly from

00:53:13.460 Keir Starmer

00:53:13.960 Keir Starmer

00:53:15.280 explained himself

00:53:16.360 saying oh we

00:53:17.480 just we can't

00:53:18.560 afford a Manchester

00:53:19.680 mayoral by-election

00:53:20.780 at the moment

00:53:21.380 there's no need

00:53:22.860 for this

00:53:23.360 no Keir

00:53:25.100 everyone can tell

00:53:25.860 they need to

00:53:26.760 rename the

00:53:27.440 constituency the

00:53:28.320 Donbass and then

00:53:29.240 they can get

00:53:29.600 4 billion but

00:53:30.940 yeah

00:53:31.500 Keir Starmer was

00:53:33.000 alleging that

00:53:33.460 they'd have to

00:53:34.060 pay for the

00:53:35.520 mayoral election

00:53:36.260 out of Manchester's

00:53:38.380 city funds or

00:53:39.580 something and it's

00:53:40.780 like right

00:53:41.340 okay

00:53:41.580 I mean don't get

00:53:43.280 me wrong I'm sure

00:53:43.760 the Labour Party

00:53:44.400 isn't doing great

00:53:45.380 for money actually

00:53:46.300 oh the entire

00:53:47.120 country's broke but

00:53:48.200 the point is they're

00:53:48.920 still spunking money

00:53:49.740 off left right and

00:53:50.300 sends all over the

00:53:51.000 place 0.99

00:53:51.380 whenever it damn 0.89

00:53:52.840 well suits them so 0.58

00:53:53.660 so obviously this

00:53:55.100 paper-thin excuse is

00:53:56.320 not going to hold I

00:53:57.160 don't know how it's

00:53:57.620 going to hold with

00:53:58.120 Labour backbenchers

00:53:59.440 correct but the

00:54:00.160 thing is this comes

00:54:01.100 after a long long

00:54:04.120 saga of Andy

00:54:06.340 Burnham getting

00:54:07.360 cucked by Keir

00:54:08.140 Starmer right

00:54:09.060 right so remember

00:54:10.080 the Keir Starmer is

00:54:10.840 like Stalin right

00:54:11.700 remember when he

00:54:12.160 took up the Labour

00:54:12.680 Party and he just

00:54:13.320 started kicking people

00:54:14.120 out right just

00:54:15.500 started throwing

00:54:16.560 them out Jeremy

00:54:17.400 Corbyn I mean nearly

00:54:18.060 threw out Diane 0.96

00:54:18.720 Abbott right yeah

00:54:19.740 just there was

00:54:21.040 something like 200

00:54:21.700 300,000 Corbynites

00:54:23.220 who just left the

00:54:24.400 party because Keir

00:54:25.600 Starmer said no we're

00:54:26.400 not having you I think

00:54:27.900 it's 200,000 or 300,000

00:54:29.140 but they're literally

00:54:30.440 loads of them

00:54:31.680 kicks Corbyn out

00:54:32.760 he's like right no

00:54:34.380 end of it and this was

00:54:35.960 at the Labour

00:54:36.340 conference speech back

00:54:37.560 in September where

00:54:39.660 Burnham just got

00:54:41.560 completely cucked by

00:54:42.460 Keir Starmer because

00:54:43.000 Keir Starmer is someone

00:54:44.240 who will brutally wield

00:54:45.860 executive power if he

00:54:47.100 thinks he wants if he

00:54:48.200 needs it right

00:54:48.840 I would live in

00:54:49.280 Britain I'm all

00:54:49.740 aware yeah exactly

00:54:51.100 so Andy Burnham this

00:54:53.000 is the second time

00:54:53.840 that he's been cucked

00:54:54.500 by Starmer despite the

00:54:55.860 fact this is a road to

00:54:57.800 hell for Starmer right

00:54:59.380 for the Labour Party

00:55:00.200 right Andy Burnham

00:55:01.260 actually is their last

00:55:02.680 chance I mean who I

00:55:03.620 mean just let's let's

00:55:05.000 just pull names out of

00:55:05.840 a hat you know

00:55:06.740 where's Ed Miliband and

00:55:07.960 Angela Rayner

00:55:08.600 wed streeting like you 0.99

00:55:10.740 know Shibana well

00:55:11.500 the streeting's probably

00:55:12.600 angling for him but the

00:55:13.780 point is they don't have

00:55:15.060 anyone else and Starmer

00:55:16.740 has just used the BAME 1.00

00:55:18.400 shortlist to block Andy

00:55:20.400 and say nope sorry mate

00:55:21.400 can't do it can't do

00:55:23.380 it's not remotely

00:55:23.880 credible no it's not

00:55:25.240 and it's it's clearly

00:55:25.980 Starmer protecting

00:55:26.740 himself because after the

00:55:27.620 May elections it's

00:55:28.860 going to be very clear

00:55:29.560 that back I mean a

00:55:30.360 backbench revolt is

00:55:31.340 already fomenting right

00:55:32.400 over David Lammy

00:55:33.820 abolishing jury trials

00:55:34.960 that's already bad for

00:55:36.940 them this I'm going to

00:55:38.380 give the Labour

00:55:38.820 backbenchers a hell of a

00:55:39.660 lot of credit if they

00:55:40.260 revolt over that I mean

00:55:41.300 they should do yeah

00:55:42.560 they haven't yet right

00:55:43.660 but anyway so this is

00:55:45.420 the favourability of

00:55:46.600 Andy Burnham in

00:55:47.320 Manchester and most

00:55:49.140 voters have a really

00:55:50.880 favourable view you're

00:55:51.780 not going to get better

00:55:52.400 than that no when

00:55:54.140 clearly this is not

00:55:55.300 about keeping the seat

00:55:57.260 it's about keeping a

00:55:59.840 challenger outside of

00:56:00.940 Keir Starmer's orbit

00:56:01.880 because the only way

00:56:03.240 that Burnham can

00:56:03.940 challenge Starmer is

00:56:05.040 by being an MP and

00:56:06.440 Starmer has just shut

00:56:07.200 him down no you're not

00:56:08.720 going to be an MP in

00:56:09.500 what is essentially a

00:56:10.880 really likely competition

00:56:13.100 for you and so Labour

00:56:14.600 are basically going to

00:56:15.640 sacrifice the seat now

00:56:16.460 of course people don't

00:56:17.740 think this was right

00:56:18.440 people can see this

00:56:19.320 entirely self-interest on

00:56:20.620 the part of Starmer

00:56:21.320 what's the question

00:56:21.860 government is Starmer

00:56:23.320 correct to block Burnham

00:56:24.460 from running all right

00:56:25.580 well what I mean the

00:56:27.000 only one that really

00:56:27.600 counts for his Labour

00:56:28.500 and yeah Burnham is way

00:56:31.440 more popular in Labour

00:56:32.320 than Starber is yes and

00:56:34.920 the thing to remember is

00:56:35.660 there are no safe Labour

00:56:36.600 seats so here is the

00:56:38.360 current projection this was

00:56:42.220 on a knife edge you can

00:56:43.880 see why the Greens are

00:56:44.680 going to be contesting it

00:56:45.440 heavily yeah and people

00:56:48.300 like I mean he's a

00:56:49.220 freeway horse race from

00:56:50.680 this so Labour 29 form

00:56:52.940 26 37 Greens 24 I mean

00:56:56.400 that yeah I mean you can

00:56:57.900 see how the Conservatives

00:56:59.220 are splitting the vote

00:57:00.820 here yeah you know good

00:57:03.300 thing the Greens and

00:57:04.140 Labour are going to be 0.52

00:57:05.020 contesting for the same

00:57:05.760 constituency but it's going

00:57:08.860 to be the Conservatives

00:57:09.660 who end up scuppering it

00:57:10.860 and might end up giving

00:57:12.520 it to the Labour Party

00:57:13.460 so Keir Starmer might

00:57:14.600 luck into keeping this

00:57:16.660 constituency but it's

00:57:18.640 just very interesting how

00:57:19.560 it's genuinely like

00:57:20.700 marginal as hell and you 1.00

00:57:23.340 get all sorts of

00:57:24.260 predictions so to be fair

00:57:27.100 Keir Starmer doesn't need

00:57:28.920 this seat because his

00:57:29.600 majority is big enough

00:57:30.520 that is true the only

00:57:31.740 thing he needs to any and

00:57:32.780 he's not going to be

00:57:33.360 re-elected at the next

00:57:34.260 general election the only

00:57:35.060 thing he needs to do is

00:57:35.820 hold on to his job until

00:57:37.420 the next election that is

00:57:38.560 the successful criteria

00:57:39.580 for Keir Starmer

00:57:40.400 correct and so you can

00:57:42.080 see from Keir Starmer's

00:57:43.200 position he's like well

00:57:44.200 if I let an obvious

00:57:46.480 challenger come into

00:57:48.280 Parliament and then start

00:57:50.240 a backbench revolt against

00:57:51.280 me and enough letters of

00:57:53.860 no confidence go in and

00:57:55.040 we have to have a

00:57:55.560 leadership challenge which

00:57:56.280 he will clearly win or I

00:57:58.420 could just stall in this

00:57:59.820 and just make an executive

00:58:01.160 decision now and Burnham

00:58:03.340 goes to the gulag and his 0.60

00:58:04.460 political career is over

00:58:05.460 right that's what's

00:58:06.720 happened here and so but

00:58:09.180 again it's marginal

00:58:10.020 everything's playful and

00:58:13.020 50 MPs are sort of

00:58:14.840 joining the backbench

00:58:16.140 rumblings of well hang

00:58:18.540 on a second these this

00:58:20.300 was our guy because we're

00:58:22.220 actually not thinking

00:58:23.060 about Keir Starmer's

00:58:24.080 political career we're

00:58:25.740 thinking about the future

00:58:26.500 of the Labour Party you

00:58:28.420 know sorry we're not we're

00:58:29.460 not happy about this and

00:58:31.040 add those to the MPs

00:58:32.780 who are like you can't

00:58:33.960 just abolish jury trials

00:58:35.100 and you realize that the

00:58:36.420 sand is shifting under

00:58:38.180 Keir Starmer's feet so

00:58:39.420 after May the 7th basically

00:58:41.580 Keir Starmer is going to

00:58:42.420 get waxed right Labour

00:58:44.220 Party getting a waxed and

00:58:45.820 everyone like this is your

00:58:46.980 fault Keir Starmer and he

00:58:48.760 will literally have no one

00:58:50.020 else to blame I mean he

00:58:51.400 is absolutely in least

00:58:53.900 disastrous option choosing

00:58:55.440 only yeah but every every

00:58:57.900 option is disastrous exactly I

00:59:00.120 hate to say the walls are

00:59:01.140 closing in yes but they

00:59:03.640 literally are closing in and

00:59:05.380 it all goes back to your

00:59:06.400 point at the very beginning

00:59:07.380 that it's because the

00:59:08.640 electorate has decided they

00:59:11.020 want out they want out of

00:59:13.740 the current elite guided

00:59:15.580 system and are just

00:59:16.900 reassigning themselves and so

00:59:18.360 this is why just to finish

00:59:20.260 off this is why it's so weird

00:59:22.020 watching Farage kind of

00:59:23.460 fumbling this right so what

00:59:26.620 Farage is doing is assembling

00:59:28.460 an elite of Conservative Party and

00:59:31.720 telling the Labour voters who

00:59:33.520 have joined him to vote for

00:59:35.300 them creating a kind of

00:59:37.140 Frankenstein's monster party

00:59:39.840 right so look these are

00:59:41.280 things that are inorganically

00:59:43.060 stitched together a good

00:59:44.620 analogy that are not natural

00:59:47.820 bedfellows and rather than

00:59:50.040 taking them seriously you seem

00:59:52.800 to be taking the previous

00:59:54.160 paradigm seriously that is in

00:59:56.840 the middle of collapsing these

00:59:58.720 these people almost all of

01:00:01.320 them are if not definitely

01:00:04.940 going to go very clearly

01:00:07.480 think oh I can't be safe

01:00:08.940 here I'm not sure that I'm

01:00:10.720 getting this constituency in

01:00:11.780 the next one yeah and and it

01:00:13.520 goes back to my point about

01:00:14.520 the three excluded groups the

01:00:16.240 first one being the excluded

01:00:17.280 talent obviously you're going to

01:00:19.940 kept Rupert Lowe yes and then

01:00:21.480 he would have been how many

01:00:22.900 other Rupert Lowe's are there

01:00:23.820 out there I mean Rupert Lowe can

01:00:24.940 pull 10% organically on his own

01:00:27.060 well but my point is is that I

01:00:29.080 don't think that Rupert Lowe is

01:00:30.400 unique the only thing that's

01:00:31.640 particularly unique about

01:00:32.640 Rupert Lowe is that he made it

01:00:34.080 into the system but there will

01:00:36.640 be hunt dozens if not hundreds

01:00:38.480 of other people like what you're

01:00:40.640 looking for is people who have

01:00:41.720 delivered something serious in

01:00:43.540 the real world and achieved

01:00:44.860 results right and there will be

01:00:47.260 loads of them well I say loads

01:00:48.860 there'll be hundreds to dozens

01:00:50.140 he should have been going out and

01:00:51.840 finding them and lining them up

01:00:53.900 and then say look this guy this

01:00:55.680 guy used to run whatever store

01:00:58.000 that you've heard of pub chain

01:00:59.060 you've heard of

01:00:59.800 yeah yeah something like that

01:01:01.860 why haven't you got Tim

01:01:02.860 what's his face yeah Tim

01:01:04.020 what's his face get him in give

01:01:05.360 him a department give him

01:01:06.060 transport or something he knows

01:01:07.580 how to get a large group of

01:01:09.200 individuals with different

01:01:11.140 stakeholders to do things that

01:01:13.480 results in an actual result

01:01:15.400 sorry carry on no I can't

01:01:18.800 remember here but the point

01:01:20.180 there's going to be loads of

01:01:21.640 those guys out Martin Tim Martin

01:01:23.340 um Nigel could have been going

01:01:26.780 around hoovering them all up

01:01:28.180 building a shadow cabinet

01:01:29.520 outside of parliament but what

01:01:31.420 he wants is people who know

01:01:34.420 that when they try and do

01:01:37.680 anything the the homes the

01:01:41.380 permanent secretary in the civil

01:01:43.440 service comes along and says

01:01:44.600 yes minister if you try and do

01:01:46.300 that you're going to end up with

01:01:47.640 personal legal repercussions for

01:01:49.840 doing that and therefore you

01:01:50.940 can't do it people who have

01:01:52.540 already been placed in that

01:01:53.600 situation and failed it by

01:01:56.160 saying oh okay I'll back off

01:01:57.300 then yep

01:01:57.880 and yet here we are uh so

01:02:02.700 anyway like completely correct

01:02:04.680 um but the the the broader point

01:02:07.740 is that there's something

01:02:08.900 like you were saying like he's

01:02:13.080 stamping on a glass ceiling right

01:02:15.420 and it's like it's breaking the

01:02:17.160 system that's true but he's

01:02:20.380 actually not reaping the

01:02:21.620 rewards of this as he should

01:02:22.940 be right for us should be on

01:02:24.780 about 40 percent easily as the 0.97

01:02:27.300 outsider candidate who is sick

01:02:29.300 of the system and is here to

01:02:30.280 smash it yes and the working

01:02:32.040 class the people who are not

01:02:33.800 universally educated 42 percent

01:02:35.640 reform they're all for it right

01:02:37.180 but even even a surprising number

01:02:39.280 of educated people 16 percent are

01:02:41.620 for it too right if you can't make

01:02:44.260 a successful co governing

01:02:45.860 coalition uh constituency out of

01:02:48.600 that that's crazy why are you in

01:02:50.700 your like he doesn't know what

01:02:52.060 time it is he he's not looking at

01:02:54.020 this as we are from first

01:02:55.220 principles he's looking at it

01:02:56.860 like I said pre-brexit political

01:02:59.540 chess he just thinks I need to

01:03:01.000 move that whatever pieces on board

01:03:02.580 in front of him are the only ones

01:03:03.820 he can see he doesn't realize all

01:03:06.060 he needs to do is stand up and look

01:03:07.380 around and when you look at it from

01:03:09.020 first principles there is a

01:03:10.380 coalition and a significant one of

01:03:13.060 talent ready to go but he can't see

01:03:15.960 it because he's in the he's in the

01:03:17.360 sw1 bubble now and you I but again

01:03:19.960 we'll end on what I think was the

01:03:21.580 best point you made at the

01:03:22.400 beginning

01:03:22.660 legitimacy is not flowing from

01:03:25.700 authority

01:03:26.160 no it's preceding it

01:03:27.860 exactly the authority has

01:03:30.260 demonstrably failed it has been the

01:03:33.900 source of the problems it currently

01:03:36.140 remains the source of the problems

01:03:37.800 and so people are looking for

01:03:39.360 legitimacy outside of the

01:03:40.640 system and Farage meant used to

01:03:43.840 embody that and so actually I think

01:03:46.140 it's a political weeping of himself

01:03:47.880 to just bring in the ex-tories and

01:03:50.440 say right labor voters vote for these

01:03:52.720 guys

01:03:53.160 it's a mistake

01:03:55.260 good

01:03:57.260 it's a mistake

01:04:00.160 Oh

01:04:00.760 yes

01:04:01.500 yes

01:04:04.020 um

01:04:04.860 here

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - January 27, 2026

The Great Misalignment

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